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What Would It Take for YOU to buy a diesel car?
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Comments
To me, there is an element of smoke & mirrors, i. e., provide the figures, consumption rates, formulas, etc, to run comparative cpmd: fuel/electricity. The fuel tank is also "leaky". So what is the leaky factor?
I got my electrical bill yesterday and tiers 2 & 3 penalty phases kick in with only 463 kWh (29 days) use is roughly $.252 per kilowatt hour, tier 3.
So for example, when I ran calculations for a Tesla, it was roughly about $.13 per mile driven. 15,000 miles @ that rate = $1,950. (Given no tier 4 penalty kick in)
So for example, 43 mpg (your Passat) / $2.33 per gal ULSD = 5.42 cents, cpmd.. 15,000 miles @ that rate = $ 813. IF the top EV figure is true, electrical is 72% more!
In these two examples, electricity is 140% greater, cpmd.
"Four in 10 [consumers] (41%) say VW's use of deceptive software to trick emissions testing equipment makes them less likely to buy a Volkswagen, while 29% say the news will have no impact on their future buying decisions. Another 28% said they would never have considered buying a Volkswagen in the first place."
Gallup finds VW's reputation hard-hit by diesel scandal (consumeraffairs.com)
They do have Audi still setting sales records. I don't think Audi buyers worry that much about gas mileage.
Audi sets 59th consecutive monthly U.S. sales record in November 2015
Not all was dismal for VW. Passat & Jetta took the brunt of the sales loss. No surprise as they are the most likely to be bought with diesel. Why Passat took such a hit has to be the bad publicity. The only one "Made in USA" how ironic. Could be VW buyers don't want dumbed down German vehicles.
• November sales total 23,882 units
• Tiguan delivered 3,907 units, an 87.7 percent increase over November 2014, marking the best November for the vehicle
• The all-new Golf family of vehicles delivered 4,110 units, a 2.9 percent increase over the previous November
• Golf GTI delivered 1,963 units for the month, a 13.8 percent increase over November 2014, marking the best November for the vehicle
Think about it, if in the real world consumers buy 2.5 VW's out of 100 cars with 1.875 being gassers, those numbers are a complete step up!?
To put it another way, how many car companies have actually increased their 14 Nov over 15 Nov auto sales 25%, after taking 25% of their (diesel) inventory off the market?
So the real test will be the "decrease % " in DIESEL sales (from more normal 23 to 25% diesel) AFTER they are able to get them back on US markets!
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/03/iran-oil-min-says-limiting-irans-production-is-out-of-question.html
So does this mean $ 1.65 per gallon ( or lower) ULSD!?
That would put 50 mpg @ 3.3 cents, 40 mpg @ 4.125 cents, 36 mpg @ 4.58 cents, 33 mpg @ 5 cents, cpmd:fuel. I'm ready!
That would put 15,000 miles per year commute costs between $495-$750. 3 to 5 % cash rewards back? Priceless! And why do I want to go back to (like model) gassers?
The newly redesigned 2016 Passat entered showrooms earlier this month. Pricing for the 2016 Volkswagen Passat starts at $22,440—the same as the outgoing base model when equipped with an automatic transmission. When new content is factored in, this represents a $1,315 value enhancement over the base 2015 Passat.
The 103.6% increase YTD on the Golf family is also promising. Jetta sales off 22.8% for the month would translate into, no diesel no sale. I know when the dealers tried peddling a gas Touareg off on me, they got a good laugh. I told one salesman if I wanted a gasser CUV I would just buy a POC Honda or some other cheap Japanese junk.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/federal-eye/wp/2015/12/04/republicans-not-happy-that-homeland-security-agency-leases-pricey-suvs/
Cost per mile is 7.58 cents for the Passat. No fancy calculations needed there!
We seldom go into tier 3, which is 22 cents here in LADWP. Almost always Tier 2 max (17 cents).
Now 3.5 cents per kWh would get my attention, so would EV prices par with a gassers. As stated tier 3 prices are @ 25.2 cents or 620% more!
Ironically, that is very similar to the TDI, also about 650 miles, although it can achieve that at faster speeds.
Yes, I also think that the people are working with assumptions that are just plain not real or mistaken. My take is that it should be a multitude of fuels & encourage ecoconomically sustainable %'s of the PVF: gas, diesel, natural gas, E85, ethanol, biodiesel, hybrid, EV, battery, etc.
So diesels are much farther along to being economically sustainable. The Eco [non-permissible content removed]'s & gas hybrid fans really do no need to demonize diesels, they just need more fans to actually buy.
A diesel PVF % of say 10% to 30% would further decrease the requirement of MORE barrels of oil due to the refinement ratios that goes back further than when Rockefeller had to struggle with that ratio. (EIA.gov, 19 gal gas/ 10 gals diesel on a 42 ga barrel of crude)
Diesel don't get any credit for how much they ALREADY decrease the demand for gasoline @ 3 to 5% of the PVF!
Advantage diesel!
Waxing poetic here, as I see a Valero with ULSD @ $ 1.98 ! ( 1.86 RUG/$ 2.24 PUG) in GA!
Do you enjoy plugging it in, however many times ? you have to during the year? My guess is a min of 180 to 365 times?
https://www.yahoo.com/autos/2017-mercedes-benz-gls-first-drive-201907561.html
Lucky you, our tier 2 is now at 20 cents and tier 3 is 40 cents. I went to tier 3 after 434 KWHs last month. My total usage was 509, which SDG&E considers low for 3000 sq ft home. Last year this time tier 3 was 34 cents. So for a Tesla driver, cost per mile will be about 13 cents.
So let me ask some questions : why does an (grid) electricity consumer (say me) have to pay MULIPLE PENALTIES, tiers 2,3,4, when (he is) using the "mandated" "favored" EV energy sources? Why do you want me to use more electricity when even my electricity company penalizes me when I do?
So the EV advocates wonder why the EV segments are in perpetual slow growth! ?
Yet they still demonize ULSD!, as if it is the TDI owners fault? ?
So duplicating EV infrastructure energy delivery systems have NO environmental impacts ?
So does EV appeal to hateful, depressive, hurt so guud/bad, bi polar type etc., dysfunctional personalities?? It would seem this is more like mental health issues than energy issues ? You want it, but when the markets bring them on line: you sue to.prohibit, once it is actually a reality, like the 40 year old Altamont Pass, CA wind turbine projects?
So for a 15,,000 miles yearly commute, would I rather pay $1,950 in (EV) fuel or $ 874 (ULSD) ? = PLUS + $ 1,076, 123 % MORE?
Or in my case pay $7,000 more for a 2004 gas hybrid, that actually got less mph than the TDI! (43 vs 50 mpg) So does anyone else but me guess there are no B/E 's (in this example?). So, tell me why I want a gas hybrid or EV CUV's over a TDI CUV? Or they hope I feel bad because I have an "affected" TDI?
Take my case of being energy "neutral"? They would have me pay $ 35,000 for a solar system, not including storage batteries. My municipality loathes & FORBIDS me to have, even if I wanted one ???! (aka, disapproved! Resubmit in 90 days for FINAL disapproval) @ My rate of electricity consumption, I should B/E in 29.17 years, assuming no break downs or unscheduled maintenance! So what do you all think of the chances of that happening ?
Like I said, I can't even make this stuff up!
18.43 MPB
So the 16 mile round trip to the grocery store is like 87 cents!
Filled up near Yuma to beat Cali prices. $18 and change to get a "potential" 475 mile range.
At $2.07, that about 24 miles per dollar, guestimating 50 mpg.
But I'll pass @ CA tier 3 penalty rates of 25.2 cents per kWh & unknown consumption rate, not to mention the acquisition premiums over gas & diesel.
1) It's always been about TCO for me. Purchase price, fuel costs, repair costs.
2) But now with the VW scandal I will wait until there is better testing of automakers' claims about emissions and fuel economy.
So for example, I am pretty happy with the 2004 Honda Civic's cpmd depreciation @ 4.24 cents cost per mile driven @ 180,000 miles. The mpg range has been between 38 to 42 mpg, avg 38 mpg. The 2003 VW Jetta TDI is slightly more @ 4.44 cents cpmd. (@ same miles) The mpg range has been 48-52, avg 50 mpg. These cars are as different as night and day. Hands down, the VW is far better! Yet both can do a 15,000 miles per year commute without much fanfare. TCO on the Civic is more! So most folks will happily spend more monies!
But I will have to do that DSG service at 40K miles or so.
I'm not a real fan per se of AWD. But then again, I have to go pass chain control points, which sometimes are inactive an hour before, to driving on snow/ice covered mountain roads.
Not to get critical, but VW is behind MB on the 2.1 l TT diesel & /with 7//9 speed A/T. 369 # ft of T.
All of them are great fun to drive (over like models) & for different reasons.
One corollary might be: the older diesel trucks get ...older!
"Apart from the dishonesty, the scandal suggests that diesel technology is less clean and less cost-effective than advocates assert. Even before the story broke, diesel had several factors going against it, including declining crude-oil prices, improvements in gasoline engines and technologies that produce cleaner cars."
The Dimming of Diesel Fuel’s Future in Cars (NY Times)
Had a chance to fill the 2004 Honda Civic@ $1.86/38 mpg= 4.89 cents cpmd: fuel. This is a great cpmd:fuel by the way. I'm Wish we'd brought the 2003 Jetta TDI @ $1.98/50 mpg=3.96 cents cpmd: fuel. ! Gas being 23.5% more!?
Really, you have to ask why the dearth of gas hybrid and EV power trains in large cars to large trucks segments, which is fully 75% of the vehicle fleet! So that I'm not vague: gas hybrid/ EV Ford F150's, TLC's!?
The real answers are in plain sight! Reality sux?
Easy fix for 3.0L TDI?
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-audi-has-simple-engine-fixes-for-luxury-diesel-cars-ceo-2015-12
$ 2.00 ULSD in GA & CO $1.76/$1.79 RUG! Closer to home (CA), $ 2.29 ULSD/ $2.19 RUG.
Given ( like) models of VW Touareg's @ 19 mpg PUG/ 33mpg ULSD, why is 12.8 cents better than 6.94 cents cpmd:fuel? ($ 2.43 PUG, $ $2.29 ULSD)
(PUG being 85% MORE? Don't forget 74% more fuel use!)
Can this be good for the flagship EV ? https://www.yahoo.com/autos/two-thirds-of-earliest-tesla-drivetrains-to-fail-201137486.html
Makes one wonder why the greenies are NOT chicken littling us ? (telling us the sky is falling)
If I was paying $130,000 @ a pop, my expectations would be the same! (as for diesels) Seems they are fine with total disingenuousness, for state religious purposes!
I wonder why they left off the estimated price of a new drive train?
The sales people are all hoping for the T6, Amarok and Tiguan TDI after the smoke clears. They have less than 30 new TDI they are sitting on. Many customers waiting for the opportunity to buy. They can sell used TDI, just cannot certify. Very few TDI trade-ins.
Mine is nearing 60,000 miles & it is utterly devoid of drama. zzzzzzzzzz
TMI wise, it does consumer closer to 1L of oil in 30,000 miles, rather tha 1/2 L for the 1.9 L, 2.0L TDI's.
Was there any word if the Touareg TDI's will get the $ 500 charge card & $500 dealer credits? I am fearing we will not get the 218 gals of free fuel! (7,205 miles of vacation travel for me) Or dealer credits.
It seems to me the two TDI's you mentioned would probably be very good additions to VW's line up.
The GOLF (MQB platform) seems to offer a lot to the broadest possible audiences, aka, #'s of options are close to bewildering. The interesting issue is the car's 44 years old & still relevant & viable. Engines include multiple gasser & power configurations, EV, ( only one) diesel (when re certified)
WSJ future price of heating oil @ $ 1.2244, RBob gasoline @ $ 1.2757.
So let me recap some diesel scandal issues. Instead of paying $4.00 + plus a gallon ( 10 cents) I'm paying $2.29. (5.725 cents) I will be getting $500 in gift card use & $500 in dealer credits & 3 years 36,000 roadside service. Instead of 25 mpg : 40 mpg. Any emissions fix will have to have a CA 7 year/70,000 miles warranty. If I want a new VW, they will give me a minimum of $ 2,000 loyalty after best deal & zero % or close to, moneies. If one really wants a diesel, one can readily get the same price as a gasser. Do you all think that going forward VW will be more or less interested in customer satisfaction? So,... I'm not finding too much that's negative!?
Although I usually put my houses on Zillow's Make Me Move page, and I have two potential buyers for the current one we've been in for a year now.
Volkswagen suspends 9 managers over diesel scandal (CNN)
Over in GM Fans is a link about Chevy going full steam ahead building diesels.
I hope you get it, come close or even over! I can tell you if you do have a "make you move" price in mind & don't post it, you aren't doing yourself any favors!
I haven't been in the GM fans area, but competing in diesel is an absolute no-brainer, especially if they have one in the fray already anyway!
It's kind of like Shifty's "list your classic car on eBay with a high reserve" to get a value estimate trick. We got great feedback using Zillow on our Boise house and used that info to stage the house for the actual sale a year later.