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High End Luxury Cars

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Comments

  • sysweisyswei Posts: 1,804
    well anyway here are the 5-year numbers, for CARS ONLY, as the germancarfans prefer:

    BMW 2000: 135,983... 2005: 197,833 up 45%
    MB 2000: 152,850... 2005: 183,169 up 20%
    Lexus 2000: 101,441... 2005: 151,226 up 49%

    Any questions?
  • deweydewey Posts: 5,243
    well anyway here are the 5-year numbers, for CARS ONLY, as the germancarfans prefer:

    Great stats, shows the Germans are holding their own and growing. And long term stats of 10 years indicates the German marques were superior.

    Thanks for pointing that out.
  • sysweisyswei Posts: 1,804
    You're spinning in a very German way.

    What the 5 year numbers show is that BMW is indeed "holding its own" vs Lexus, in cars. But does 20% unit growth for MB, when BMW and Lexus grew 45% and 49% (in cars), mean MB is "holding its own"? Do you think the MB USA execs are patting themselves on the back for that?

    long term stats of 10 years indicates the German marques were superior.

    The 10 year stats indicate that the Germans outgrew Lexus IN CARS in that timespan. When combined with the 5 year numbers, the 10 year numbers show that the best "car growth" period for BMW and MB, relative to Lexus, was 1995-2000, NOT 2000-2005. In car terms, isn't 1995-2000 kind of "ancient history"?
  • docnukemdocnukem Posts: 485
    The scary thing for MB is the relative rate of growth.

    Cars only:

    MB: 95-2000=99%, 2000-2005=20%
    BMW: 95-2000=46%, 2000-2005=45%
    Lexus: 95-2000=28%, 2000-2005=49%

    As you can see, you can make the numbers say whatever you want them to say.
  • deweydewey Posts: 5,243
    Oh really so 10 years is ancient history and 5 years is contemporary modern history. Thanks for providing that distinction.

    This whole 5 years versus 10 years versus 3 years versus annaul versus quarterly versus monthly becomes kind of tedious. What you are doing is called data mining(selectively picking certain periods to support your arguments). The key thing is both MB and BMW are growing quite well whatever period you select!

    Yes I said MB and that was not a typo error. MB is doing fantastic relative to the horrific destruction that was inflicted on the company by the former CEO Juergen Schremp. Your statistics reflects the "Juergen Schremp curse", but now with Zetsche in the helm it will be full throttle ahead for the Benz marque. I cant wait until 2008 when we can discsuss how well MB stats are(oops, in that case I will be doing data mining)
  • sysweisyswei Posts: 1,804
    If I had checked all 10 years of available data, and then picked the years that made Lexus look best, THAT would have been data mining.

    But I didn't do it that way. I picked 1995 as a starting point because it was the earliest data I could find. (If anyone can find earler data, I'd be interested in seeing it.) And since it was 10 years ago, I picked 2000 as another logical point to look at (duh, because it was 5 years ago, halfway in time). In fact, when I found the 1995 data it was clear to me that using 2005 vs 1996 (instead of 1995) would have made Lexus look FAR better (9 year growth rate rather than 10 year), but I expressly didn't do that. Check the 2005 vs 1996 numbers yourself if you want to see what I mean.
  • sysweisyswei Posts: 1,804
    The scary thing for MB is the relative rate of growth.

    Yes, another way to put it is that they seem to have a second derivative problem. Rate of growth seems to be decelerating.
  • designmandesignman Posts: 2,129
    Can we find any significance between growth rate and price? Looks like growth rate is inversely proportional to price. Is the less expensive brand of cars here more inclined to grow?
  • deweydewey Posts: 5,243
    Yes, another way to put it is that they seem to have a second derivative problem. Rate of growth seems to be decelerating.

    Growth is growth whether it is accelerating or decelerating. Are you saying what decelerates cannot accelerate in the future? Are you saying MB is doomed? Scary indeed, BOOO !
  • garyh1garyh1 Posts: 386
    MB is doing fantastic relative to the horrific destruction that was inflicted on the company by the former CEO Juergen Schremp.

    Dewey, what the heck kind of analysis is this? BMW is definitely doing very well, but to say MB is doing "quite well" - let alone "fantastic" - while it is losing ground to BMW and Lexus, is more than just selective "data mining".

    And it's nice to know that all of Mercedes' problems can be traced to just one person. :confuse:

    I don't think even the great and mighty Merc1 can save you in light of this bizarre posting. ;)
  • bdr127bdr127 Posts: 950
    Some people like to count only cars, for reasons I just can't fathom...other than the reason that it makes German brands look better.

    The reason why some Germancarfan asked for just the 5-year car numbers was because some Lexicon said that the reason BMW has increased its sales over the last 5 years was because they added SUVs.

    When you're talking about total units sold, you can't say you must include SUVs, then turn around and discredit BMW's growth because they introduced SUVs. How hypocritical... You can't have your cake and eat it, too.
  • deweydewey Posts: 5,243
    The reality is that the four Toyota sedan models (equivalent to IS, GS, LS and SC) outsold all MB and BMW models even when they were marketted as Toyota's!

    When you say equivalent to Lexus IS did you include the Toyota Corolla? Where did you get your figures from? Bloomberg was quite concise in defining luxury as being over 3.5 million yen?

    Also where did you see that ad with the 100K $ discount for the Maybach? I find it kind of ludicrous that Maybach would sell their cars so publicly at such a huge discounts like a baker who sells stale bagels at a discount. Talk about snob appeal!
  • bdr127bdr127 Posts: 950
    The reality is that the four Toyota sedan models (equivalent to IS, GS, LS and SC) outsold all MB and BMW models even when they were marketted as Toyota's!

    Now we're comparing Corollas and Camrys to luxury cars? Huh?
  • sysweisyswei Posts: 1,804
    Growth is growth whether it is accelerating or decelerating. Are you saying what decelerates cannot accelerate in the future? Are you saying MB is doomed?

    No, I'm not an MB doom and gloom theorist. But I do think they have failed in recent years (relative to their arch-competitors in the US) to "deliver the goods" in terms of meeting customer desires. I actually think the RELATIVE growth rates for them are apt to improve, because I actually do think they have made SOME and will continue to make SOME progress on the reliability front.

    As far as "Growth is growth whether it is accelerating or decelerating"...I thought you were in the securities business? Would you rather have own a company that was growing at a 15% cagr in the past, but more recently is down to 4%, or would you rather have a company that was growing at a 5% cagr in the past, and is now up to 8%. Is a 8% grower better than a 4% grower? Is acceleration not prefered over deceleration?
  • deweydewey Posts: 5,243
    As far as "Growth is growth whether it is accelerating or decelerating"...I thought you were in the securities business?

    When you use the words scary I have difficulty associating those words with any kind of growth. Even in the investment business I associate the words scary with failure and negative growth. No, MB is not in a scary situation.
  • jrock65jrock65 Posts: 1,371
    "Some people like to count only cars, for reasons I just can't fathom...other than the reason that it makes German brands look better."

    You had already posted the overall numbers, so no reason to post them again. I wanted to see car information because I'm interested in industry trends in that segment, and posted it for those that care. Just because the numbers favor one brand over another, don't assume that there is a hidden agenda. If anything, to the extent that I have a bias, it is against German brands.

    So... is it forbidden to post trends about cars? Didn't know that it was the law of the land that you can only post overall sales, and not breakdowns.
  • sysweisyswei Posts: 1,804
    "How hypocritical" ???

    I started posting total vehicle numbers, and still maintain that that is the most rational way to look at things. Yet when the German side responds by talking about car-only numbers, I'm not allowed to talk the same way without being called hypocritical?
  • sysweisyswei Posts: 1,804
    Look, we can cut the market any way we want. Some people here like to look JUST AT CARS, maybe because they feel that cars are the most important, for whatever reason. We could equally look JUST AT THE HEL SEDANS, under the theory that these are the flagships, and that the midrange and low end just aren't as important. Who would be winning then?

    So, germancarfans, every time you say we ought to focus just on cars, why don't I say that as long as we're being exclusionary, why not focus just on HEL Sedans?

    NO. The most rational way of looking at this, imho, is the inclusive way. Total vehicles.
  • sysweisyswei Posts: 1,804
    I didn't use the word scary. You did. Go check the posts.
  • jrock65jrock65 Posts: 1,371
    "The most rational way of looking at this, imho, is the inclusive way. Total vehicles."

    Most rational way of looking at what?

    If you're interested in the relative performance of brands, you look at overall numbers.

    If you're interested in the relative performance of cars, you look at car numbers.

    If you're interested in the relative performance of SUVs, you look at SUV numbers.

    If you're interested in the relative performance of high end cars, you look at HEL numbers.

    I don't agree with the notion that the focus should ONLY be on cars, but I don't agree with the notion that the focus should ONLY be on overall sales either.
  • deweydewey Posts: 5,243
    I didn't use the word scary. You did. Go check the posts

    My bad, Docnukem is the culprit!
  • docnukemdocnukem Posts: 485
    Brightness was getting that from another Bloomberg article:

    Reposted Link

    Toyota already sells 50,000 units a year of the four luxury Toyota cars it plans to rebrand as Lexus models.

    Later, it states:
    The carmaker, which produces four in 10 vehicles on Japan's roads, sells the the Lexus IS as the Toyota Altezza at home. The Lexus GS is sold as the Toyota Aristo, the Lexus SC as the Toyota Soarer and the Lexus LS as the Toyota Celsior.


    Sorry, no Corolla.
  • jrock65jrock65 Posts: 1,371
    Does anyone think that Infiniti can build a successful (12,000+ annual sales) Q?

    Or is the brand too lacking in prestige to be successful in the HEL segment, no matter how good the car is?
  • docnukemdocnukem Posts: 485
    Yup, I am the culprit. But if I were the CEO of a company that went from a 99% growth rate over one 5-year span, then dropped to 20% over the next (what is that, a 3%/year average rate?), I would be troubled...particularly when my competitors were sailing.

    My unstated (sorry) concern was that the growth deceleration was due to reliability concerns. Ask Jaguar, but those tend to take some time to correct (like turning a barge--or, as Hpowders would say, "an LS430").
  • deweydewey Posts: 5,243
    The reality is that the four Toyota sedan models (equivalent to IS, GS, LS and SC) outsold all MB and BMW models even when they were marketted as Toyota's

    Altezza, Aristo, Soarer and Celsior were and are Lexus models and are included in the 50K figure below. So let us look at the following numbers:

    Lexus = 50,000

    BMW 35000 + MB 45000 =80,000

    So based on that data where is Brightness getting Lexus sales exceeding both MB and BMW sales?
  • hpowdershpowders Posts: 4,269
    Yeah...BMW would probably be better off doing what they do best-sport sedans, and leave the $100k category to automakers who emphasize luxury over performance.
    People spending that kind of cash are looking for luxurious appointments over performance. I have to admit, this is really not where BMW belongs.
  • designmandesignman Posts: 2,129
    So, are the IS, GS, SC, and LS... Toyotas?

    OR!

    Are the Toyota Altezza, Toyota Aristo, Toyota Soarer and Toyota Celsior... Lexuses?

    You know what they say about a rose by any other name. Before any of you Lexicans get bent out of shape, I could care less if I had a Lexus and someone called it a Toyota. You gotta go with it because that's what it is.
  • sysweisyswei Posts: 1,804
    I think you said before yourself, that when you go into a showroom you don't care how brand x,y,z have been doing saleswise. That's a sentiment I basically agree with. When you're shopping, you're shopping for yourself, for the vehicle that best meets you personal needs, that is "best for you".

    When we talk about sales numbers, would you agree that we have moved out of the realm of "what's best for you personally"? That we're really looking at "what has been best historically for the buying public"? At least, that's my interpretation of why sales numbers come up on this board. If merc1 buys a MB at some point, I know its because it is the best FOR HIM, and can't dispute what's best FOR HIM, after all.

    So if we are looking at sales numbers to answer the question "who has best served the buying public", it seems to me that it would make sense to look at things on a cars-only basis if the buying public only bought cars.

    Even if you think it is "interesting" to look only at cars, for whatever reason, I think the numbers would only really make sense if people never cross-shopped say, a BMW car vs a BMW SUV. I know that's not true from personal experience. When I bought my first Lexus, an RX (which I still own) I also test drove an E, GS, and LS.
  • docnukemdocnukem Posts: 485
    Judging from the M, they can, but they don't have much wiggle room. A fully-optioned M is approaching 60K MSRP. In order to recover sales, they will have to offer a redone Q at a price advantage over the LS.

    Also, the M has a larger interior than the current Q. They need to be careful not to try and make something too bloated (trying to stay on the performance/sporty side of things, yet offer more space than the M)
  • hpowdershpowders Posts: 4,269
    Sure. The LS is a Toyota despite the angry uproar on this board to the contrary.

    Toyota has instituted one of the greatest snake oil schemes in business history and shows that you can fool most of the people most of the time.

    Wonder what the Toyota executives think about the gullible Americans?
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