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Will Car Sales Really Recover?

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  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,052
    Toyota sales jump 15% on strong fleet, retail volume

    Fleet sales represented about 13.5 percent of Toyota Motor Sales' volume last month. The Camry had a 20 percent fleet mix.

    Is Toyota suffering from GMitis?
  • explorerx4explorerx4 Central CTPosts: 9,833
    Ford really dropped their retail incentives. Focus sales, for example, are not sustainable at a March sales level on an on going basis.
  • anythngbutgmanythngbutgm Posts: 4,175
    I've read in a couple of placers that Toyota is filling orders for fleets that have been backordered due to last years tsunami.
  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286
    Some of them anyway.

    "Also Tuesday, Volkswagen of America Inc. said it had its best April sales year 1971, selling 37,525 vehicles, up 31.5 percent from the same month a year ago."

    Chrysler's April up 20%, GM down 8.2%, Ford down 5% (Detroit News)

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  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286
    "U.S. auto sales are on pace for the best showing since 2007 and a third straight year of at least 10 percent gains, only the fourth such streak since the Great Depression, as more-confident buyers return to showrooms."

    Auto Sales Rise Puts U.S. on Pace to Best Year Since 2007 (Bloomberg)

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  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286
    edited May 2012
    "Almost halfway through the year, the auto industry keeps chugging along toward a mid-14 million unit sales pace, said Jessica Caldwell, Sr. Analyst at Edmunds.com. With continued pent-up demand and consumers gaining more and more access to credit, there's every reason to believe that sales can continue at this rate through the rest of the year."

    Edmunds.com May 2012 Auto Sales Forecast (Bloomberg)

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  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286
    "Pent-up demand, falling gas prices and low interest rates are being credited with powering stronger-than-expected monthly gains in U.S. car sales.

    "There was great pressure from automakers to close June strong, especially after the unexpectedly weak Memorial Day holiday weekend in May," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell."

    Auto Sales Rev Up in June (Inside Line)

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  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286
    edited July 2012
    "You would normally see some holiday sales, some summer sales now," she says. "But that hasn't started."

    Seller's Market: Where to Find Auto Deals This Summer (WSJ)

    On the plus side, credit is cheap and easy to get again.

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  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286
    edited September 2012
    "August once again played out the theme we've been seeing for some time: high pent-up demand that is being unleashed as consumers have to buy a new vehicle and feel confident enough to buy."
    • Toyota and Volkswagen were impressive performers in August, with sales rising 46 percent at Toyota and Volkswagen posting a 63 percent increase over last August.
    • Volkswagen said it sold 10,090 Passats last month, marking the best August ever.
    • Toyota's resulted indicated that the Japanese automaker largely has bounced back from the devastating 2011 earthquake and tsunami.
    The domestic automakers posted strong August results.

    Hyundai Motor America announced an all-time August sales record of 61,099 units.

    Resilient Auto Industry Reports Robust August Sales (Inside Line)

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  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286

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  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286
    "Mass-market manufacturers have responded to falling demand by lowering prices, but the severity of the situation has now forced them to consider more drastic action.

    While the premium-car segment is less price sensitive than the mass-market sector, Europe's economic woes have started to spill over into demand for larger, more powerful sedans and sport-utility vehicles. European registrations at Daimler fell 6.9% last month, and the German company recently cut its full-year profit target for its core Mercedes-Benz Cars division."

    BMW, Audi, and the Koreans are about the only brands with increasing sales.

    European Car Sales Slump Continues (WSJ)

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  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286
    edited October 2012
    October numbers will be out starting Thursday.

    "Edmunds suggested that "strong performances" by the redesigned Honda Accord and Nissan Altima will propel the Japanese manufacturers to record October sales in the U.S.

    The industry is expected to post an annual selling pace of 14.8 million to 14.9 million new-car sales in October, according to Edmunds and TrueCar, respectively. That would be the best October in five years."

    U.S. new-car sales expected to sustain recent momentum (Detroit Free Press)

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  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286
    "Automakers are reporting relatively healthy October sales, despite Hurricane Sandy's toll.

    "October had been on track to be another strong month and was still a reasonably healthy month considering the punch Sandy packed," said Michelle Krebs, Edmunds.com senior analyst.

    Before the storm, U.S. auto sales were expected to rise 11-12 percent for October, according to economists."

    U.S. Auto Sales Relatively Healthy, Despite Hurricane Sandy's Toll (Inside Line)

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  • berriberri Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2012
    If the northeast takes a sales hit because of the storm, I'm thinking the European models may be a bit more affected. They seem very popular there. If they can make the inventory available they'll get it back on the flip side. Otherwise it might benefit Asia or Detroit a little.
  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286
    edited November 2012
    "Automakers on Thursday reported mixed U.S. sales results for October as Superstorm Sandy put a damper on East Coast vehicle purchases at the month's end.

    Overall, new car and truck sales were up 6.9 percent on volume of 1,092,205 units compared with 1,021,313 a year ago. The impact of high fuel prices was again evident, as car sales increased 13 percent while truck sales edged up 1.6 percent."

    U.S. truck, car sales up 6.9 percent in October (Detroit News)

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  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286

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  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286
    "In 2012, the pace of automotive industry sales steadily increased even as the national economy sputtered and often appeared to stall. Sales of cars and trucks increased in part because of pent-up-demand from the recession when people postponed purchases.

    The rebound in sales occurred even though the industry cut its incentives.

    For the year, the average new car incentive fell 5.1%, according to Edmunds.com."

    Auto industry's 2012 sales best since 2007: Chrysler up 10% in December; Ford, 1.9%; GM, 4.9% (Detroit Free Press)

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  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286
    edited January 2013
    Who knew that predicting sales was just as much a combat sport as being the sales winner?

    Edmunds.com Analyst Named Top Auto Sales Forecaster of 2012 (fortmilltimes.com)

    Grade The Analysts (thetruthaboutcars.com)

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  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286
    "The year 2013 is off to a strong start with January car sales totaling 1,042,479 vehicles, the first January the industry has surpassed the 1-million-unit mark since 2008. The 14-percent increase in sales compared with a year ago pushed the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of sales of 15.3 million vehicles, precisely in line with Edmunds.com's forecast and on par with the past couple of months, but significant since January usually is slow sales month."

    January Car Sales Off to a Fast Start

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  • ateixeiraateixeira Posts: 72,587
    There has to be pent-up demand. How many people have been waiting on the sidelines since 2008?

    Plus, look how much more fuel efficient cars are now. That's driving demand, those 2008s are paid off and people will be looking to trade them in soon.

    I think 15M is low...
  • iluvmysephia1iluvmysephia1 Posts: 5,711
    edited February 2013
    '08 Mitsubishi Lancer GTS is fully paid off (Mar. and Apr.2013 then we're done) I fully intend ta just drive and enjoy the beautiful compact sports sedan. I would rather pick up a '62 Cheva Nova SS as a project car or buy one already restored than trade in for another new car.

    Gonna pop open a bottle of champagne, man, when it's fully paid for! :shades:

    2011 Kia Soul Sport 5-speed

  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286
    A journalist is looking for proud owners of cars 11+ years old to ask why you love your car. If you love your old car and would like to share your story, please send your daytime contact info to pr@edmunds.com no later than Monday, March 4, 2013 at noon PT/3 p.m. ET.

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  • ateixeiraateixeira Posts: 72,587
    Early reports are coming in - Ford up 9%, GM up 7%.
  • dieselonedieselone Posts: 5,651
    Fusion had a monster month. Feb sales were 27,875 vs. 14,817 for the Malibu.
  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286
    "For six decades, Americans have tended to drive more every year. But in the middle of the last decade, the number of miles driven — both over all and per capita — began to drop, notes a report to be published on Tuesday by U.S. Pirg, a nonprofit advocacy organization.

    People tend to drive less during recessions, since fewer people are working (and commuting), and most are looking for ways to save money. But Phineas Baxandall, an author of the report and senior analyst for U.S. Pirg, said the changes preceded the recent recession and appeared to be part of a structural shift that is largely rooted in changing demographics, especially the rise of so-called millennials — today’s teenagers and twentysomethings. “Millennials aren’t driving cars,” he said."

    Young Americans Lead Trend to Less Driving (NY Times)

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  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286
    "The share of sales to this age group fell almost 30 percent from 2007 to 2011. Then, in 2012 — a year that brought 13 percent year-over-year growth to auto sales, Millennial buyers came back to the market in force, improving their share of sales to just over 20 percent less than 2007 levels. What's more, they have largely maintained these share gains so far in 2013. Improving income and employment, more household formations, and increased consumer confidence all contributed to the boost in Millennial car buying."

    Millennials Take the Wheel

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  • andre1969andre1969 Posts: 22,052
    Isn't the millennial generation 1982-2000, or something like that? I think it's going to be hard to judge that group as a whole until the whole generation comes "on line" Right now, the oldest ones might be 30-31 (incidentally, I didn't even buy my first new car until I was about 29 1/2), but the youngest are still in middle school. Right now, about 20-25% of them aren't even old enough to get their license yet, while another similar-sized chunk probably would probably need their parents to co-sign for one.
  • dieselonedieselone Posts: 5,651
    I bought my first new car at 24 in '95 and still needed my dad to co-sign.
  • lemkolemko Posts: 15,196
    Bought my first new car at 22 in 1987. It did help that I had an uncle in the banking business! :P
  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,286
    "A new analysis from the CALPIRG Education Fund, a nonprofit focused on good government, argues that the change is not just economic.

    "The recession does not appear to be the prime cause of the falloff in driving over the past eight years," it concluded.

    Since the recession, Americans are driving fewer miles, on average, in all but a handful of states. The average Californian, for instance, cut his or her annual miles driven by 6.6% between 2005 and 2011, the report found.

    When people don’t have jobs, they tend to drive a lot less. But the states with the biggest drops in driving don’t all have the biggest increases in unemployment, the analysis found."

    Driving is down, and it's not just the economy, new study finds (LA Times)

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