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Is Tesla A Game Changer?

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  • fintailfintail Posts: 37,185
    I'm still most curious as to how proprietary supercharger tech will expand when the 3 finally hits the street - and if the taxpayer will be left holding the bill for expansion. The one thing worse than a 40 minute wait for a charge would be waiting for 3 people in line in front of you to juice up first.

    Hey, at least this place allows Tesla skepticism and criticism - some supposed automotive sites have been known to censor it.
  • fintailfintail Posts: 37,185
    The taxi drivers around Seattle, a huge number of them "newbies" as I like to say, can also be crazy, but usually in a slow inept way to match the local driving skill. I would rather have the fast ones. I remember riding with a Turkish cab driver in Stuttgart years ago, he was fast, but not scary. 4cyl diesel E, I think it was.

    Maybe the Prius guy just hated the car, and drove it hard out of frustration. That's how I explain aggressive Prius drivers :) Aggressive driving in something with the 0-60 capability of a Tesla is a scary thought, as they seem to appeal to those not exactly into cars or driving.

    Special lane access and parking could be an important incentive for taxis, assuming all taxis don't already enjoy these privileges. , but these drivers didn't abuse their cars. This driver in Berlin drove like a New York taxi driver on steroids.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 51,786
    fintail said:

    I'm still most curious as to how proprietary supercharger tech will expand when the 3 finally hits the street - and if the taxpayer will be left holding the bill for expansion. The one thing worse than a 40 minute wait for a charge would be waiting for 3 people in line in front of you to juice up first.

    Hey, at least this place allows Tesla skepticism and criticism - some supposed automotive sites have been known to censor it.

    It's not the cite that is censoring it---but rather Tesla fanboys flooding various forums and conducting online retribution for violating the one-party orthodoxy.

    Fortunately, we here like all points of view. B)

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  • fintailfintail Posts: 37,185
    edited April 21
    A certain Gawker based site has censored some for questioning the Tesla groupthink. Amusingly, the place is also kind of going downhill lately.

    There really is a Tesla cult out there.


    It's not the cite that is censoring it---but rather Tesla fanboys flooding various forums and conducting online retribution for violating the one-party orthodoxy.

    Fortunately, we here like all points of view. B)

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 51,786
    Yeah, a Tesla website can be like living in North Korea or being trapped in a 24/7 Christmas store.

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  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 30,383
    I was just debating Tesla with our old Buddy Rocky. He is one of those Tesla Cult members. Nothing Musk does is bad. I left him pondering the whole recycled battery thing. It seems there is no sustainable way to recycle Li-ion batteries. Most of the batteries are incinerated or shipped to 3rd world countries. It will require the tax payers to make it possible.

    Lithium-ion batteries are expensive to manufacture and this is in part due to the high material cost and complex preparation processes. The most expensive metal of most Li-ion is cobalt, a hard lustrous gray material that is also used to manufacture magnets and high-strength alloys.

    Knowing that billions of Li-ion batteries are discarded every year and given the high cost of lithium cobalt oxide, salvaging precious metals should make economic sense and one wonders why so few companies recycle these batteries.

    The reason becomes clear when examining the complexity and low yield of recycling. The retrieved raw material barely pays for labor, which includes collection, transport, sorting into batteries chemistries, shredding, separation of metallic and non-metallic materials, neutralizing hazardous substances, smelting, and purification of the recovered metals.


    http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/battery_recycling_as_a_business

    This is probably why Musk is lining up suppliers of Lithium for his new GigaFactory. So much for his acting Green.

    Currently the majority of the world’s supply of lithium comes from Bolivia, Argentina and Chile. While recycling batteries to extract lithium makes perfect sense, financially it is not worth it since the cost to recycle the lithium exceeds the cost of mining new lithium.

    http://cleantechnica.com/2015/07/23/electric-vehicle-battery-can-recycled/
  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 49,667
    Musk's long range plan is to do some asteroid mining. He's just delivering cargo to the ISS for practice.

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  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 51,786
    "sustainable" and capitalism have not traditionally been the most comfortable of bedfellows---although I do think the two are compatible in certain cases (agriculture, for instance)....but "mining" is mining, after all.

    Seems to me the major marketing point for EVs is economical cost to run, and "future tech"--the Apple sort of thing.

    Let's be honest about it, at any rate. EVs aren't cheap to buy, and they aren't "green". It might be arguable that polluting a desert or remote rural area is better than polluting a city, but that's not how the desert or countryside feels about it.

    You don't get something for nothing in the world ruled by physical laws. Only in ad agencies.

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  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 30,383
    You don't get something for nothing in the world ruled by physical laws. Only in ad agencies.
    Exactly what I have tried to get through to Rocky. He truly believes we can build a large enough solar farm in the desert to supply the entire USA. I ask him how we get the energy to NY. His response is Bury underground cables across the country. How do you argue with that sort of simplistic view? The Rocky mountains to him is not an obstacle. National Parks are there to be used including plowing through the middle with huge cables. It frustrates me that so many people think like that.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 51,786
    edited April 22
    Well you know...it's very thrilling to be a "futurist"--you can wax eloquently about how we will all march bright-eyed and rosy-cheeked into a future of sunlight meadows. Who would rain on a parade like that?

    Problem is...most futurists have been proven wrong, and the "gurus" who are worshipped for being right aren't really futurists at all--they were just clever enough to see existing things in a new way.

    Musk isn't "inventing" anything--he is working with what already was. We already had batteries, we already had electric motors, we already had cars and we already had computers.

    We also have the power plants fueled by coal or natural gas (and to a minor degree, by thermal and wind and solar) that literally propel all the EVs you see on the road today.

    If you "plug it in", it's still a fossil-fuel burner, unless you are charging off solar panels directly----which would take either a lot of time or a lot of panels to power an EV efficiently.

    "New" technology for the EVs of the future hasn't been invented yet.

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  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 30,383
    It looks like there are some batteries that provide a lot more power to weight than the Li-ion used in so many things including the Tesla.

    There is another type of battery that does not appear in the table above, since it is limited in the relative amount of current it can deliver. However, it has even higher energy storage per kilogram, and its temperature range is extreme, from -55 to +150°C. That type is Lithium Thionyl Chloride. It is used in extremely hazardous or critical applications such as space flight and deep sea diving.

    The specifications for Lithium Thionyl Chloride are $1.16 per watt-hour, 700 watts/kg, 2,000,000 Joules/kg, and 1100 watt-hours per liter. For more information of Lithium Thionyl Chloride please contact Tadiran Batteries.


    http://www.allaboutbatteries.com/Battery-Energy.html

    Li/SOCl2-- Lithium thionyl chloride 3.6 V cells have the highest energy density and voltage of all commercial lithium types, with a service life of up to 15 to 25 years. These cells are ideal for applications requiring very low continuous-current and/or moderate pulse-currents. Extremely long service life and low self-discharge make them ideal for life-saving devices such as automatic external defibrillators that must be ready for use at all times without risk of battery failure.

    http://www.tadiranbat.com/index.php/compare-lithium-technologies
  • fintailfintail Posts: 37,185
    Asteroid mining, LOL, the cult would probably donate 2K apiece for that.
  • carboy21carboy21 Posts: 756
    Elon Musk = Lithium lobby = War in Afghanistan.

    Pollute someone else's backyard not Kalifornia
  • fintailfintail Posts: 37,185
    It's funny how someone the drones would claim is anti-establishment has some pretty firm links to the establishment. Kind of like the old hippies who loudly protested the establishment 45-50 years ago, and are today the establishment, and little has changed.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 51,786
    It's just an electric car. They've been around for well over 100 years!

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  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 49,667
    "Tesla has promised a lot but has also delivered most of it" and said there was now a lot of excitement in the industry about the "overall appearance and approach Tesla is taking."

    German automakers who once laughed off Elon Musk are now starting to worry (LA Times)

    The people really starting to worry are the stockholders. And that's not referring to Tesla's stockholders.

    "The executives at Daimler got an earful from shareholders at the company's annual general meeting this month in Berlin."

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  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 30,383
    The real question, can Tesla compete with China???

    At an event in Beijing this week, Chinese technology company LeEco showed off a slew of devices including smart TVs, a trio of smartphones sporting controversial new headphone inputs, and a VR headset to name a few. But the company's 'one more thing' moment was the unveiling of its LeSEE self-driving electric supercar.

    http://gadgets.ndtv.com/others/features/leeco-wants-to-give-away-its-tesla-killer-for-free-but-questions-remain-829263

    This is the statement that blew me away, showing how we are becoming 3rd world. Our connectivity is crap in CA and most of the USA.

    Also, with Internet connectivity being a massive part of the LeSEE, can it function without it? What provisions are present in the event of the lack of bandwidth? It probably is less of a problem in China where connectivity is a given almost everywhere, but it does pose an number of concerns for other nations like India where connectivity is notoriously poor and the notion of paying for content isn't there yet. LeEco's plans are one thing, but execution is what counts.
  • fintailfintail Posts: 37,185
    By the time the 3 hits the streets, the mainstream marques will have plenty of time to launch an competitive model. Don't think they aren't prototyping them right now.

    Stock valuations and stockholder sentiment are funny - these are the same people who will blindly put down money on a car that doesn't exist.

    That LeEco piece is paid fluff, like the propaganda constantly released by the kleptocratic government. The term "Tesla killer" being used for a car that exists both as a cgi render and as a hollow plastic Model S copy styling exercise is funny. Connectivity almost anywhere in China, sure. Regarding American connectivity, I only know that I have family in a relatively rural area that had only 2G data up until a year or two ago, and now has LTE even in their one horse town - things are changing. I suppose if one is a doomer and lives up in the hills, they might still be in the dark.

  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 30,383
    Fintail: Regarding American connectivity, I only know that I have family in a relatively rural area that had only 2G data up until a year or two ago, and now has LTE even in their one horse town - things are changing. I suppose if one is a doomer and lives up in the hills, they might still be in the dark.

    There is Cellular Internet and WiFi coverage. Cellular is a total ripoff price wise. Our recent jaunt to AZ made it clear how poor cell service is off the Interstate corridor or within cities. I avoid using my Smartphone for Internet when away from a Wifi source.

    I bought a new NightHawk Wireless router that made a lot of difference in our home system. I was real proud of my 65 Mbps SpeedTest until my nephew in Albuquerque posted 900+ Mbps. He has Fiber to the door. We both pay the same price.

    As for your take on the LeSee, I would not underestimate the Chinese ability to copy and improve. The Chinese are beating US at our own game of Capitalism. They hired one of Tesla's top engineers in 2012.

    http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100860_more-faraday-info-chinese-billionaire-backer-ex-tesla-staff-for-electric-car-startup

    http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1103569_faraday-futures-backer-shows-another-electric-luxury-sedan
  • carboy21carboy21 Posts: 756
    stever said:

    "Tesla has promised a lot but has also delivered most of it" and said there was now a lot of excitement in the industry about the "overall appearance and approach Tesla is taking."

    German automakers who once laughed off Elon Musk are now starting to worry (LA Times)

    The people really starting to worry are the stockholders. And that's not referring to Tesla's stockholders.

    "The executives at Daimler got an earful from shareholders at the company's annual general meeting this month in Berlin."

    Tesla is doomed unless it brings cars to market priced same as gasoline car and in the millions not few hundreds.
    Then we will have lines at the charging stations running three blocks long.
    Musk and his lithium lobby is selling a pipe dream at the expense of the tax payers.
  • fintailfintail Posts: 37,185
    edited April 25
    Up here, I have service in any relatively populated area, and 4G LTE speeds in most. I've seen it grow by leaps and bounds in the past couple years - I even have service in the central corridors and garage of my building now, where one would drop calls in the past. At least in western WA and along highways in this state, I can easily say connectivity is now on par with my experiences in Europe, which for a long time was among the most wired locations.

    That system some strangely revere is not capitalism, that's crony capitalism and kleptocracy. Who do you think is buying up all that west coast property, and why? Look where the money comes from, it all seems to trace back to public sector officials and questionable connections. You don't want to live in that business climate, it's not what you know, it's who you know and to whom you were born. Maybe like the supposed capitalism of 1890. For as unsustainable as the model here can be, that one is much riskier.

    Low quality cgi renders do not a real car or concept car make. It'll take more than buying some execs. So far, vaporware. I need to see it to believe it, just like with the 3. The comments on the articles are pretty valuable, too.

    gagrice said:


    There is Cellular Internet and WiFi coverage. Cellular is a total ripoff price wise. Our recent jaunt to AZ made it clear how poor cell service is off the Interstate corridor or within cities. I avoid using my Smartphone for Internet when away from a Wifi source.

    I bought a new NightHawk Wireless router that made a lot of difference in our home system. I was real proud of my 65 Mbps SpeedTest until my nephew in Albuquerque posted 900+ Mbps. He has Fiber to the door. We both pay the same price.

    As for your take on the LeSee, I would not underestimate the Chinese ability to copy and improve. The Chinese are beating US at our own game of Capitalism. They hired one of Tesla's top engineers in 2012.

    http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100860_more-faraday-info-chinese-billionaire-backer-ex-tesla-staff-for-electric-car-startup

    http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1103569_faraday-futures-backer-shows-another-electric-luxury-sedan

  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 30,383
    Carboy21:
    Tesla is doomed unless it brings cars to market priced same as gasoline car and in the millions not few hundreds.
    Then we will have lines at the charging stations running three blocks long.
    Musk and his lithium lobby is selling a pipe dream at the expense of the tax payers.


    I totally agree. His claims for a green solution, will make VW's claims seem honest. We have already debunked his totally recycled Lithium battery claim. It can only be done with a government subsidy. Costs far more to recycle than to mine.

    Free electricity at Super Chargers is a beauty for sure. And who is going to pay for the electricity? Even the ones with solar are only good when the sun shines. Don't count on using the ONE super charger in San Diego. It is in the Qualcomm HQ parking garage. 5+ million people in the county and one Super Charger. I guess it is not a good choice in San Diego.
  • fintailfintail Posts: 37,185
    They'll need a bank of charging stations about every mile or so, if the 3 sells as predicted. I find it amusing that the adoring media has been lax to point out this issue.
    carboy21 said:


    Tesla is doomed unless it brings cars to market priced same as gasoline car and in the millions not few hundreds.
    Then we will have lines at the charging stations running three blocks long.
    Musk and his lithium lobby is selling a pipe dream at the expense of the tax payers.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,530
    edited April 27
    http://www.autonews.com/article/20160427/COPY01/304279931/germany-to-introduce-4500-subsidy-for-buying-an-ev

    This raises questions, including will German automakers phase out diesel cars (not trucks and buses)? In any event, this subsidy into electrification by the German government isn't shocking, but I didn't expect it.

    What will FCA do?
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 51,786
    Given how much Germany has invested already in all forms of 'green' energy, I'm not surprised. They are also the 5th richest country in the world right now.

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  • fintailfintail Posts: 37,185
    "Luxury cars with a price tag of more than 60,000 euros will not benefit from the scheme"

    Sounds closer to what should have existed here. And yeah, I bet the German power grid is better equipped to handle an influx of new demand better than that here.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 51,786
    They are heavily invested in solar and wind power.

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  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 30,383
    How well will the US and German compete with the copy cats that will soon be coming out of China?? $15k EV Mini Cooper look alike?

    One of the more infamous examples is the Landwind X7 from Jiangling Motors Co. — a deadringer for the Range Rover Evoque. At $21,000 it retails for around one-third of the real deal's price.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/china-s-copycat-cars-compete-western-giants-n562256


  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 49,667
    Just goes to show that the "real deals" are overpriced. :p

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  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,530
    edited April 27
    stever said:

    Just goes to show that the "real deals" are overpriced. :p

    Let's remember that real research and development went into the "real deals." That costs more than copying and reverse engineering. Also, who knows how much the Chinese government is subsidizing their copy cat vehicles?
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