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Is Tesla A Game Changer?

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  • fintailfintail Posts: 33,594
    edited September 2013
    Here's something I am curious about - if the Tesla competes with the established luxobarges, are their sales falling commensurate with Tesla sales increases?

    And if it is real competition, it's way past time to stop giving the top income echelons a publicly funded subsidy for a toy.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 44,619
    You know, I really have no idea who Tesla steals market share from--but I've love to know if anybody has any info on that.

    My guess would be partly from other companies that are stressing "green" in a big way, or conspicuous consumption as well. I don't think it's Benz or BMW or Audi or Porsche. The German car driver just rolls up his windows and steps on the gas.

    Maybe Lexus, Cadillac, Volvo, Aston Martin, Ferrari???

    I'm just guessin'. I really haven't a clue.

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  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,193
    I've also been wondering where Tesla's market share is coming from. I think the rising tide lifts all ships situation applies in this market. Industry sales have been rising year over year for the past three plus years, so with Tesla representing less than .5% of the industry's sales in the U.S. its ~21,000 units are more than offset by the overall increase in the luxury segment. The upshot, then, is that most of the other luxury vehicle manufacturers can show unit gains. My guess, though, is that although the numbers are small, each of the luxury brands is losing a few sales to Tesla. I don't think Audi, BMW and MB are insulated.

    Also, it's probably not a zero sum game. Some Tesla sales are probably incremental, since some buyers who can spend $70,000-$110,000 can afford to have an extra car. In addition, some sales may be pulled forward by impulse purchases. Notwithstanding these factors, the majority of Tesla's sales are probably conquest sales. Just my perception, since, to Shifty's point, I haven't seen any relevant numbers.

    We'll have a clearer picture of relative winners and losers during the next sales downturn. By then Tesla will be in one or two additional segments and there will be more competing models.
  • fintailfintail Posts: 33,594
    I bet that's what it is. Most buyers of these have some money, so they can afford what is maybe a third car. I wouldn't doubt that makes up more of it than sales stolen from established brands.
  • steverstever YooperlandPosts: 40,206
    edited September 2013
    The WSJ graphic in my earlier link today says that 65% of EV owners (not limited to Tesla owners) replaced a previous car with their EV. 28% got an EV as an additional vehicle and 7% got the EV as a replacement car but kept the old one.

    Seattle is the 3rd biggest market for EVs after San Fran and LA, followed by NY and Atlanta.

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  • fintailfintail Posts: 33,594
    edited September 2013
    I can believe that. I see half a dozen or more Teslas per day, seriously - and so many Leafs that I don't notice them anymore. I saw a RAV4 electric the other day too.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 44,619
    Does that 65% mean PURE EVs, or Volts included?

    Geez, I would never have guessed it that high, unless of course the vast majority of that 65% live in a large metro area.

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  • steverstever YooperlandPosts: 40,206
    edited September 2013
    Oops, sorry, misread the graphic. Those numbers are from people who purchased a Nissan Leaf. So most Leaf owners replaced a car with the Leaf.

    The city ranking is for plug-in EVs (the whole article was focused on plug-in EVs, not hybrids).

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  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 44,619
    Okay so probably young metros is that demographic, as in San Francisco. Plug it in at night, commute to work cross town...San Fran is only 6 miles by 7 miles--it's a Toy City. And Beserkely is just a hop over the Bay Bridge. But commuting to Silicon Valley and back on one charge might cause some beads of sweat.

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  • steverstever YooperlandPosts: 40,206
    edited September 2013
    I did that crosstown walk in '70 or so during the transit strike. :-)

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  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 44,619
    you still need a car in SF because public transit sucks. But in New York, you certainly can do without a car.

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  • lemkolemko Posts: 15,154
    Hmmm! Business opportunity: open charging station between San Franciso and Silicone Valley.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 44,619
    Absolutely a good idea, although I don't think the Leaf offers that optional $2,000 Tesla "supercharger" gadget. But maybe you could give the car a 1/2 hour 'boost'.

    Probably the high tech companies should provide the charging stations at destination.

    RE: Saving time by not going to a gas station. Oh yeah, that 15 minutes a week I spend there is certainly worth spending $80,000 to avoid.

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  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,193
    On Tuesday The National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration received a complaint for unintended acceleration of a Model S.

    According to the complaint, the driver was going down a short driveway at about 5 mph with the brake consistently applied. The car suddenly accelerated, hitting a curb and ending up on a 4.5-foot retaining wall about a foot from the curb.

    So far this is just a complaint, so there's no basis for assigning blame. We'll see where it goes from here.
  • steverstever YooperlandPosts: 40,206
    edited September 2013
    And Hyundai and Jag, if you believe the posters. And those are just the dedicated discussions, and don't include posts in the various maintenance discussions, like this Cadillac one today.

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  • fintailfintail Posts: 33,594
    I won't assign blame, but if I was a betting man, I know where I'd place it...
  • anythngbutgmanythngbutgm Posts: 4,175
    edited September 2013
    Not liking this. Last thing this car needs to be is another Rentabu/Taurus/Impala...

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-25/hertz-adds-tesla-electric-cars-at-two-c- - - alifornia-airports.html

    Hopefully this concept remains in Cali where Tesla's largest market is...
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 44,619
    i'd guess that Bigfoot is to blame...literally.

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  • bwiabwia Boston Posts: 1,195
    Stop that train--I want to get on-- the Tesla stock price ride. The stock is now at $190 and poised to crash through the $200 aspirational price.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,193
    edited September 2013
    $500/day is more than I'd care to pay for a rental, although I'd pay that for the experience of driving a new Ferrari, or certain older Ferraris.
  • fintailfintail Posts: 33,594
    For say a 250GT Berlinetta Lusso, sign me up. For a Tesla, not so much. It'd need to be more like $100/day.

    Wouldn't surprise me if the Hertz models were fairly basic spec, no performance models.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,193
    Bubbles can go to virtually any price and can remain overvalued for a long time before they burst. Emotions, over-optimism and greed trump fundamentals and fear during a bubble phase.

    Almost all the news and press releases about Tesla cars, Tesla Motor's plans, Tesla's CEO, etc. have been positive. Some of it is justified, some is hype. The stock will likely go higher or remain high until a credible piece of negative news comes out, or until the last optimist slurps the cool-aid.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,193
    Bubbles can go to virtually any price and can remain overvalued for a long time before they burst. Emotions, over-optimism and greed trump fundamentals and fear during a bubble phase.

    Almost all the news and press releases about Tesla cars, Tesla Motor's plans, Tesla's CEO, etc. have been positive. Some of it is justified, some is hype. The stock will likely go higher or remain high until a credible piece of negative news comes out, or until the last optimist slurps the cool-aid.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 44,619
    So you are a gambler and not an investor? :)

    Fair enough, just as long as you know that.

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  • bwiabwia Boston Posts: 1,195
    So you are a gambler and not an investor?

    Certainly not all of these investors are gamblers. It's a gamble if there is no product behind the hype. Not the case with Tesla.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,193
    Speculator may be a more appropriate term than gambler, since the Model S has been successful, albeit with significant help from tax incentives and carbon credits, and the company is likely to become profitable. I'll be watching what happens to the stock when there's disappointing news.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 44,619
    If you buy stock against every recommendation of every reputable analyst, and you buy stock with a projected P/E ratio of 245, you are a gambler.

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  • bwiabwia Boston Posts: 1,195
    Thought I'd share this beautiful animation of how the internal combustion engine works. http://jacoboneal.com/car-engine/

    Compared to the Tesla, whose electric motor is so simple, the ICU is unnecessarily complicated with so many things that can go wrong. And they often do with or without constant maintenance. Nonetheless, Carl Benz or whoever else who invented the ICU was a genius.

    Enjoy!
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 44,619
    Well the average ICU now goes 250,000 without a blip, so we'll see if a Tesla can.

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