The Future of Hybrid Technology

rfruth

I don't want people to think i'm the environmental tree sitting type, yep have and use Greenmountains % 100 wind plan https://www.greenmountain.com/services/TX/brazos_wind_farm.jsp and recycle whenever I can but no tree sitting or bumper stickers on Hummers for me, I am the use what you need and leave the rest type be it a hybrid car or a campfire (when there's a bunch of firewood I don't start a bonfire just cause the wood is there but no cold camp either)

gagrice

why get a smog belching diesel that gets 45 MPG and cost 20 grand if you or your kids spend 20 more grand on a breathing machine

That may be overstating it a little. I am a bit miffed at our Congress for letting this issue of high sulfur diesel go for so long. They have used ULSD in Europe since the 1980s according to what I have read. However once that is settled and we are burning clean diesel I would like to see more diesel vehicles brought in. If they are adaptable to hybrid that is good too. I just don't like being held hostage to any entity whether it is Toyota, OPEC or Exxon. Some have stated openly that they hope Toyota runs the rest of the automaker into the ground. I can tell you one thing they will soon learn that a monopoly is not in their best interest.

rfruth

A monopoly works for Microsoft (okay there are competitors but M$oft has most of the market share) no clean diesel high MPG here in the states cause no money in that ! (Rob ((not anti establishment, Win XP user))

gagrice

I don't think Toyota would like the scrutiny the US governemnt put on Bill Gates & Microsoft. They tread lightly now. I think if the gouging on the Prius was going on with WinXP, Microsoft would be up against Congress again. Of course Microsoft is a bigger company by over 100 billion dollars than Toyota. More money in software than cars.

falconone

How was Toyota gouging on the Prius? Wasn't it the dealers? MSRP is just that.. suggested. If people want to pay more, blame them. Not Toyota. I can think of quite a few other car companies that play the same game.

gagrice

I think you missed my point on monopolies. Microsoft has a monopoly of sorts on the operating system most of the world uses. If Toyota were to monopolize the hybrid auto industry as some have wished for, without any government restraints it could get ugly. I don't think the isolated cases of gouging by dealers is important. It is allowing any one company to have control of an item whether it is oil or food or any need such as transportation, then it becomes a problem. I think Toyota has kept the price on the Prius very reasonable. Maybe too reasonable. I remember when Carnation went into small towns and sold milk below what the local dairymen could produce it for. Then when the dairies went out of business Carnation raised the prices way beyond what they were before that. It helped bring on price controls for milk.

I really doubt that hybrid will ever be that much of a need. There are too many other options. And quite frankly I don't think people overall care that much about the price of gas. When the average cost for a house is $500k, $3 per gallon gas is nothing.

zodiac2004

http://auto.consumerguide.com/auto/editorial/imho/index.cfm/act/o- pinion40

Any automobile that tries to stand on anything but its own merit is bound to fail. Hype doesn't carry it on forever. Recent examples - Mini and PT Cruiser. Toyota maybe smarter than the other automakers, but certainly no nobler. The obvious reason they sell hybrids (at a loss, or maybe break even) is to raise the fleet mileage and to sell more high-profit polluting vehicles.
Don't believe me. What would you do, if you were in their shoes ?
Remember Toyota is a global corporation with their principal goal being profit. The shareholders take priority before the public.

zodiac2004

But I don't get your hope that "the bottom falls out of the used hybrids market" comment.

You are focusing on the second part of my statement, which is just an extension of the first part, which reads
I can't wait for the day when decent diesels make it to NA.
That's my real hope.

I believe hybrids are a band-aid technology at best. I don't know about the technology the D/E buses use, their efficiencies and costs.

gagrice

"But what about all of those other costly hybrid components, are they covered? How much do you think an electric motor costs? Try more than $1680 (3). How about that fancy computer that controls the electric motor? Another $3281 (3). Repair costs add up quickly, especially considering you still have normal engine-related repairs."

That is a good editorial from Consumer Guide. I have asked the above questions about the Prius warranty and was ignored. I don't think that 8 year 100k/150k warranty covers anything but the battery pack. I could not find it on the Toyota website. Though I did not spend a day looking. Here is the best advice he gives in the editorial.

"The logical thing would be to purchase a fuel-efficient small car or, better yet, a diesel and avoid hybrids until the technology works itself out. Let others accept the responsibility of proving hybrid technology for the manufacturers."

gagrice

Gas prices have come down quite a bit, but the demand for the Prius hasn't. I wonder why?

One word, Fear! No one knows what the next election will bring. One side has openly advocated that $5 per gallon gasoline would be the best for our environment. To be on the safe side you get a fuel efficient car while the getting is good.

turboshadow

..but fashion. The Prius is a trendy little car, what with all the Hollyweird glitterati and the nightly news fawning all over it. It'll join the Cruiser, New Beetle, and Miata on the pile of forgotten fads.

Turboshadow

zodiac2004

but fashion. The Prius is a trendy little car, what with all the Hollyweird glitterati and the nightly news fawning all over it. It'll join the Cruiser, New Beetle, and Miata on the pile of forgotten fads

A lot of people will take strong issue with that statement. The Prius, Cruiser, New Beetle, and Miata don't fall in the same category. 3 of them do fall in the category of fads, however. I'll leave you to figure out which one isn't.
Hint: It's the one with rear wheel drive.

turboshadow

I know what you mean, and the Miata will always have a cultlike following. I was refering to the fact that people pay $$$$ just to have the latest fadmobile, the dealers can charge over MSRP, then a few years later can barely move them off the lots.

Personally, I like all those cars (OK, not the Beetle), but you have to admit they are all faddish, like the Prius.

Turboshadow

Kirstie_H

One has to realize that there are a variety of reasons for choosing a hybrid, not just based on fuel cost - some feel it's better for the environment (arguments aside), some like the size, some (like me) don't like to stop for gas, and some people just plain like new technology.

When microwave ovens came out, our family just had to have one because my dad wanted to use it to pop popcorn. Yes, a $300 popcorn maker. Was it logical, expense-wise? Nope. But he just wanted the new technology.

kirstie_h
Roving Host & Future Vehicles Host

mirth

And I wouldn't deny anyone the ability to buy new tech for its own sake. It's just that the number of people in that group is limited so when they dry up the automakers better have something that appeals to everyone else.

Your dad sounds like my uncle. He had one of the first VCR's, probably paid like $1000 for it. I think it was run by propane. ;-)

falconone

.... and this coming from someone who drives a dodge shadow? I gotta laugh!!

turboshadow

HAHA Gotta agree. It does kinda weaken my arguement.

Turboshadow

turboshadow

I agree. Its your money, spend it any way you want to spend it.

Doesn't mean it isn't a fad, though ;-)

Truboshadow

zodiac2004

One has to realize that there are a variety of reasons for choosing a hybrid, not just based on fuel cost - some feel it's better for the environment (arguments aside), some like the size, some (like me) don't like to stop for gas, and some people just plain like new technology.

When microwave ovens came out, our family just had to have one because my dad wanted to use it to pop popcorn. Yes, a $300 popcorn maker. Was it logical, expense-wise? Nope. But he just wanted the new technology.



Very well said. Couldn't agree more. This is the land of choice, after all.

But don't try to rationalise your hybrid purchase by pointing out numbers.

zodiac2004

but you have to admit they are all faddish

I won't. The Miata is the world's top-selling 2-seater roadster of all time. Mazda was able to profitably sell it for over 11 years without a redesign, unheard of in this day and age. Call it an impractical toy, but certainly not a fad.
A fad, by definition is hot one day and cold the next. The Miata was never in that category.

stevedebi

"Mazda was able to profitably sell it for over 11 years without a redesign, unheard of in this day and age. Call it an impractical toy, but certainly not a fad."

Hmmm, I think the Jeep Cherokee went longer without major changes. And one must remember the original VW Beetle...

Sylvia

...thanks for getting back on topic everyone.

john1701a

> A lot of people will take strong issue with that statement.

It doesn't bother me in the slightest, since my support has always ultimately been for HSD.

Prius is simply the first vehicle to use HSD. Just wait until there are over a dozen. That's The future of Hybrid Vehicles.

JOHN

gagrice

Prius is simply the first vehicle to use HSD. Just wait until there are over a dozen. That's The future of Hybrid Vehicles.

Time will tell on a dozen. I did see a RX400h on the road here in Hawaii. He was driving between Hilo and Volcano. When I finally caught up to him he had permanent type dealer plates. So at least one is on the road.

falconone

Not a sold unit. A mule for sure. 1st Qtr 2005 is the projection now.

larsb

This discussion has been carried over from another forum topic to here. This is discussion about "the future of Hybrid vehicles in relation to their future resale value."

"When it comes time to sell a used hybrid, the need for replacements (as measured in reliability data) due to the hybrid drivetrain will be part of the resale value equation. Those buying now will face whichever future turns out to be correct. That is why I said that the effect of the hybrid technology on resale is uncertain at this point..."

What I meant is that "just because it is new" does not mean it has to be assigned "questionable reliability." Plus, the separate parts of the "hybrid drivetrain" in the HCH at least are minimal - it's a little electric motor that is hooked into the transmission - not a lot of "STUFF" per se to break or to worry about.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that YES, just like any other NEW CAR, we do not know at this point what the future reliability will be. HOWEVER: this IS after all a HONDA CIVIC, which over the long history of this model line maintained superior reliability and resale value.

I'm think THAT history should be more of an indicator than unknown factors.

zodiac2004

Plus, the separate parts of the "hybrid drivetrain" in the HCH at least are minimal - it's a little electric motor that is hooked into the transmission - not a lot of "STUFF" per se to break or to worry about.

Tell that to the guy you are trying to sell the car in 5 years, that the "minimal differences" in the drivetrain probably won't cost him $5000 to get operational.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that YES, just like any other NEW CAR, we do not know at this point what the future reliability will be. HOWEVER: this IS after all a HONDA CIVIC, which over the long history of this model line maintained superior reliability and resale value


Sounds like you are trying to convince yourself that your purchase of the HCH Civic makes economical sense.
Depreciation is the biggest expense by far in new car ownership. So if resale is a question mark for whatever reason, you don't know what your overall costs are going to be. You can guess the resale of a regular Civic much better, however and you ARE rolling the dice with the HCH.

The well-deserved reliability and resale strength of the Civic comes primarily from the bulletproof drivetrain. When that is replaced by a new technology, the respect and resale has to be earned all over again.

larsb

I realize that a generation 1 Prius and a 2004 HCH are different animals, but to bring more facts into the future "resale" value discussion:

I just found a used 2001 Prius in my area for sale (39K miles) from a private party for $14988. That vehicle had an MSRP of $19995 in 2001.

That's 74% of it's original value. Even if you could lower the price by $1000, that's still holding 69 percent of the value.

That's a pretty good forecast I think for how Hybrids are going to hold the value over time....

As a comparison, I paid $31,000 in March of 2002 for a 2002 Avalanche Z71, and the private party Blue Book right now for that truck is only worth $17440 private party resale - a measly 56 percent....

larsb

I don't need to convince myself - I'm just using basic historical facts to convince the people who might doubt (for some unknown reason) that Hybrids will hold their value as well as if not better than comparable cars.

stevedebi

Actually, I just ran that car on KBB a couple of days ago, and the private party value is about 10,500. If someone buys it at 14K plus, they are pretty stupid to pay that much. The dealer trade in is somewhere around 9K. Still, P.T. Barnum was definitely right...

Plus, keep in mind that the packs have a warranty to 150K. The question is how long they last, as well as mileage.

larsb

I guess the values in your area are different than Phoenix. Here is the screenshot of that same 2001 Prius, in "fair" condition, which is the lowest price I could get out of the KBB configurator:

Arizona • September 13, 2004
2001 Toyota Prius Sedan 4D
Engine: 4-Cyl. 1.5 Liter
Trans: Automatic
Drive: Front Wheel Drive
Mileage: 39,500

Equipment
  Air Conditioning
Power Steering
Power Windows
Power Door Locks
 Tilt Wheel
Cruise Control
AM/FM Stereo
Cassette
 Single Compact Disc
ABS (4-Wheel)
Rear Spoiler
Alloy Wheels

Consumer Rated Condition: Fair
"Fair" condition means that the vehicle probably has some mechanical or cosmetic defects, but is still in safe running condition. The paint, body and/or interior need work to be performed by a professional in order to be sold. The tires need to be replaced. There may be some repairable rust damage. The value of cars in this category may vary widely. A clean title history is assumed. Even after significant reconditioning this vehicle may not qualify for the Blue Book Suggested Retail value.

Private Party Value Search Local Listings for This Car $12,970
Private Party value represents what you might expect to pay for a used car when purchasing from a private party. It may also represent the value you might expect to receive when selling your own used car to another private party.

The number it comes up with for a vehicle in "Excellent" condition is $15,075.

As we all know, your mileage may vary - but I'm showing data I just now called up from the KBB website.....

stevedebi

Hmmm, looks like LA is not the place to sell a 2001 Prius. I had also used 78000 miles, because a forum member was looking at a used Prius with that mileage. Looks like the mileage makes a LOT of difference:

Consumer Rated Condition: Good
"Good" condition means that the vehicle is free of any major defects. The paint, body and interior have only minor (if any) blemishes, and there are no major mechanical problems. In states where rust is a problem, this should be very minimal, and a deduction should be made to correct it. The tires match and have substantial tread wear left. A clean title history is assumed. A "good" vehicle will need some reconditioning to be sold at retail; however major reconditioning should be deducted from the value. Most recent model cars owned by consumers fall into this category.

Private Party Value Search Local Listings for This Car $11,055

-----------------

Consumer Rated Condition: Fair
"Fair" condition means that the vehicle probably has some mechanical or cosmetic defects, but is still in safe running condition. The paint, body and/or interior need work to be performed by a professional in order to be sold. The tires need to be replaced. There may be some repairable rust damage. The value of cars in this category may vary widely. A clean title history is assumed. Even after significant reconditioning this vehicle may not qualify for the Blue Book Suggested Retail value.

Private Party Value Search Local Listings for This Car $9,890

larsb

LA is a buyer's market, and Phoenix is a seller's market, at least for THAT car, RIGHT NOW.

I guess we can conclude that the future resale value for certain Hybrids in certain locales will be good, and not so good in other locales...

I guess that's why they call it the "future."

jprice

Link to post #33 in the "Hybrid resale values - will they hold?" forum.

jprice

rfruth

Please supply said link or at least give me a hint where the hybrid resale value forum is.

larsb

Sylvia "Hybrid resale values - will they hold?" Sep 6, 2004 3:38am

rfruth

 Thanks, should I have found that cause I didn't see it (but the link worked)

gagrice

I found out from the Toyota dealer that it is one of 6 RX400h vehicles that are on the Big Island making Promo videos. Have not seen any more than that one...

nkeen

RE: "Oh yes.. I remember reading that. They spent billions of dollars to sell a few cars to the Hollywood elite. How foolish do you think we are to believe such a ridiculous statement?"

No, they didn't spend billions of dollars to sell a few cars to the Hollywood elite, but it didn't hurt sales when Larry David was shown driving one around on his show. My point is that there are many better performing, better handling cars around for the same or less money, and that for fuel economy the high torque diesels that are available on the European market may be a much better way to go. (If only the trucking lobby would stop standing in the way of low sulfur diesel in the US.) For instance, CAR magazine rates the BMW 530D as the best overall driver in the range -- enough torque to pull a tree stump out of the ground, great "real world" performance and highway mileage in the 40s. City driving is really where hybrid mileage shines. The real issue is that fuel is amazingly cheap in the US, and beyond making a statement, the complexity and cost of hybrids doesn't make a lot of sense.

rfruth

 So whats a BMW 530D cost in US dollars and when might we be able to buy one ?

Kirstie_H

Please visit the Hybrid vs Diesel discussion to compare products. We're only talking about the future of hybrids here.

kirstie_h
Roving Host & Future Vehicles Host

larsb

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6090680/

greencars

Hydrogen is a long-term answer and yes, we owe it to ourselves and future generations to make this happen. But even with the very focused fuel cell development now going on, we're years away from having affordable hydrogen vehicles on our roads.

In the interim, current approaches are not impractical. Hybrids are becoming a proven technology...they just need to sell in greater numbers, which they will given a bit of time. High fuel economy, new-generation diesel vehicles also make sense.

Any technology that allows us to drive the vehicle models we wish to drive, but in ways that use much less fuel and generate far fewer emissions, make sense. This is especially so if advanced and more fuel efficient drivetrain technologies diminish oil use, allowing us to distance ourselves from dependence on the oil we now source from unfriendly or undependable parts of the world.

gagrice

Any technology that allows us to drive the vehicle models we wish to drive, but in ways that use much less fuel and generate far fewer emissions, make sense.

Welcome to the forum. Very well expressed. I agree 100%.

jprice

<Hydrogen is a long-term answer...>
Yes, there is a heckuva lot of hydrogen in this world - the oceans are full of it.

But it is *not* a "source" of energy. It is only one way to provide a portable means of using energy, just like gasoline. In fact, it takes more energy to extract one gallon of hydrogen from water (or natural gas, another souce - but one which is as depletable as oil) than it will yield by its combustion, even in a fuel cell.

Where is the energy to produce hydrogen going to come from? Solar power would be good, fusion even better, but we're not likely to see either of those energy sources in wide use in the next twenty years, and oil is going to start being in short supply in that timeframe.

But don't worry - keep driving your SUV's.

jprice

larsb

Central High School in Phoenix has a truck with solar panels that uses solar energy to extract hydrogen and powers the truck with it. Total project cost was less than $10,000 and the range of the truck is about 80 miles.

Nothing more than a proof of concept really, but shows promise in following decades perhaps.

http://www.centralphysics.com

rfruth

A group of high scool ers came up with a solar-hydrogen P/U but GM has trouble coming up with a hybrid ?


Oh yea a lot of people making lots of money don't want that.

gagrice

What a cool project. Sounds like some pretty bright students in that school. Gives you some hope for the future.

midnightcowboy

>Hydrogen is a long-term answer

Except for one , well maybe two major problems.

(1) IT is very expensive to create and store safely.

(2) Part of the safety issue, it will be extremely expensive to develop a umbiquitious dispersion network akin to the current gas stations.

Hydrogen sounds nice and actually they talked about hydrogen fuels cells as the "way of the future" in Popular Science and Popular mechanics magazines; except that was over 40 years ago and it is still the "way of the future" and will be for some time, because Hydrogen is expensive.

YMMV,

MidCow

larsb

Hydrogen might eventually be an answer, but the technological hurdles are large and many.

The way we are progressing though, there is no reason to think that all the problems cannot be solved, as long as the RESEARCH MONEY is available.....