Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!





The Great Hybrid Battery Debate

11617181921

Comments

  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,166
    I would not consider the batteries a non issue. If in fact they last the 10 years that CARB has forced Toyota to warrant them, I would be forced to agree. That is a long time for any battery to last. We shall see. The current batteries in the oldest gen 2 Prius are not 5 years old yet. My understanding is the batteries in the gen 1 Prius were recalled. Something to do with terminals. There were only a handful of the original Prius sold. Hardly a good representation. If the first Gen 2 Prius are still going strong at 8-9-10 years without battery deterioration I will admit to being wrong.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Posts: 7,160
    The Federal Govt and Toyota each separately have tested the hybrids to 160,000 mi and 180,000 mi respectively with neither finding any significant deterioration in the batteries or their performance. Need citations? At these mileage levels, as with most vehicles, the vehicles are essentialy used up. Beyond 180,000 who cares. If the batteries are going go at least 180,000 miles, or 15 yrs at normal driving, why is this even an issue.

    Go right on this site and look up any high volume passenger vehicle with 180,000 mi and/or 15 yrs on it. It's worth less than $500! Who cares if the battery goes out at 180K or 200K or 220K miles? The vehicle is worth nothing anyway. This objection that's constantly being raised over and over again is truely a tempest in a teapot.
    93 Camry 150,000 mi = $455
    94 Accord 180,000 mi = $250
    95 Taurus 130,000 mi = $190
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    Gary says, "If the first Gen 2 Prius are still going strong at 8-9-10 years without battery deterioration I will admit to being wrong."

    Well, it's not MAGIC Gary. There will without a doubt be "some battery deterioration" and that FACT is unavoidable.

    But how much it affects the mileage will be the key point. Most of the older, highest mileage Priuses which have been reported on show little or no loss in MPG as they age.

    After a battery has 8-10 years on it, the performance of the battery cannot help but be affected.

    I'm the one saying "Prius batteries will not FAIL EN MASSE" over time. There will be a few failures out of warranty, for sure. I think that number will still hover around minuscule to barely a blip.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,166
    I do understand your logic in thinking the mileage is the most important figure in calculating a vehicles life. We on the other hand look at Years of life. Our 1990 LS400 has not reached 95,000 miles yet. It is still running. We just replaced the 12 volt battery that was warranted for 7 years. It made it with one month to spare. I realize that lead acid and NiMH are different and have different life characteristics. For you to say that the Prius battery will last 150K miles is just crazy talk. When you look at the average 15k miles people drive that is 10 years. We have no data backing up what you are saying. Miles mean nothing in the scope of time.

    You also like to show that any vehicle that is 10 years old is worthless to the owner. It is worthless to a dealer. It is possibly all the owner can afford. If after 10 years he has to replace an expensive battery that will make the Prius WORTHLESS. So I guess by your definition the Prius is a 10 year throwaway vehicle. I would probably agree with that.

    Our 19 year old LS400 runs and looks better than many 3-5 year old cars. If we had to replace a $4k to $6k component I would give it to Father Carlucci as a donation. The point being I don't want a car that has that kind of built in expensive component that is deteriorating whether it is being used or not. That is the nature of batteries. It will be the Achilles heel of all EVs in the future. Fine for high mileage drivers not so good for low mileage long term owners.
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    Gary says, "For you to say that the Prius battery will last 150K miles is just crazy talk."

    Ditto from me for anyone who says it won't. We already have Priuses with that many miles. :) ( However you slice your comment, it's merely an anti-hybrid, biased opinion, is it not? )

    The Prius might be a 10-yr throwaway vehicle for some owners. Just as many gasoline cars also are treated. But about 90% of the Prius can or will be recycled - so who loses?

    A solution which will please you Gary: "Long term low mileage drivers" can just keep buying gasoline cars as long as they are available.

    Battery technology WILL SOMEDAY reach the point of lifetime batteries and/or an affordable replacement for the 10-yr owner. Book it. It's gonna happen.

    If not, then non-fossil-fueled cars will adopt some other sort of alternative power technology.

    There are too many smart people in the world for this to not be figured out.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,166
    Well, it's not MAGIC Gary. There will without a doubt be "some battery deterioration" and that FACT is unavoidable.

    That has been one of the sticking points in my mind since the hybrid hit the streets. For those of us conservative drivers will the hybrid be a good "green" long term purchase? If it needs a new battery after 10 years the answer is a resounding NO! Which brings up the real issue. At what point will the automaker be forced to change the battery? At 50% 60% 70% 80% of original capacity. I would say when it drops below 80% it should start losing mileage. That is just an educated guess.

    I noticed about a year ago that the Lexus starter seemed sluggish. Truth is it was the deterioration of the battery. It finally failed in front of the Costco gas pump. Called AAA and they came and installed a new battery. That sluggish starter sound is gone. It is like we have a new car for $124 including tax and installation. I don't think the person with a 19 year old Prius will be so lucky. All that smugness at the gas pump when they are filling for less than I am will go away. If there ever is such a thing as a 19 year old hybrid.... I just doubt it. Sad isn't it?
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,166
    Ditto from me for anyone who says it won't.

    That is the 10 year average driver. We shall see if you are right after 5 more years. The fact that my car would be worthless and 90% recycled is very comforting indeed. :sick:

    I know that our LS400 is probably worthless to a dealer. It still runs great and is how I think all vehicles should be built. Sadly they are not and we are tossing them after just a few years. I dare say the new Lexus will not hold up as well as the first of the breed. What does that say about Toyota and Lexus as automakers. Green does not come to mind. A green car to me is one that is still good after 20 years. There are many environmentalist that share my view. Auto salesmen are definitely not in that group. Mercedes has probably built the most green cars over the last 30 years. Last I read they were awarded greenest car on the planet award. Though it probably would not pass my test for longevity. All people think about is emissions from the exhaust. That is not all we should be measuring.
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    Gary sarcastically says, "The fact that my car would be worthless and 90% recycled is very comforting indeed."

    All cars reach "worthless" at some point, unless totaled or retired early.

    Cars which are driven as commuter cars are not an investment (other than collector cars, we know) - they are a consumable which eventually gets consumed down to nothing.

    Gary says, "A green car to me is one that is still good after 20 years."

    Lucky for the rest of the world that is only one man's opinion.

    Gary says, "Last I read they were awarded greenest car on the planet award."

    Where did you see that? I'd like to see someone who put them ahead of Honda.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Posts: 7,160
    For you to say that the Prius battery will last 150K miles is just crazy talk. When you look at the average 15k miles people drive that is 10 years. We have no data backing up what you are saying. Miles mean nothing in the scope of time.

    Sorry this is not accurate. As I noted both the Federal Govt, Idaho National Labs, and Toyota have separately tested the Toyota hybrids to 160,000 and 180,000 miles respectively with no significant deterioration in performance. As a matter of fact in the Feds test I believe that the Gen2 got slightly better FE after 160,000 miles ( break in ) than it did in the beginning. There is data and it's published and done scientifically.

    Now that the mileage question is put to rest, you are only surmising that age has to overwhelm the batteries because that's the only arrow left in your risk quiver. But that's only your personal viewpoint. Nothing else. There is no proof at all that age up to 10 or 15 yrs has any significant effect on the performance of the hybrid batteries. There are no vehicles that old yet. Nonetheless the CARB warranty is 10 years. Up to that time there is no risk.


    You also like to show that any vehicle that is 10 years old is worthless to the owner. It is worthless to a dealer. It is possibly all the owner can afford. If after 10 years he has to replace an expensive battery that will make the Prius WORTHLESS. So I guess by your definition the Prius is a 10 year throwaway vehicle. I would probably agree with that.

    And at 10+ years old ALL mass market vehicles, not hand made LS400's, are next to worthless. At 15 yrs of age they are in fact worthless. An owner may have an unreasoning love of his or her teenager but that doesn't eliminate the fact that it is worthless. It may have some utility but it has no cash value if an attempt were to be made to turn it into cash other than for parts.

    Our 19 year old LS400 runs and looks better than many 3-5 year old cars. If we had to replace a $4k to $6k component I would give it to Father Carlucci as a donation. The point being I don't want a car that has that kind of built in expensive component that is deteriorating whether it is being used or not. That is the nature of batteries. It will be the Achilles heel of all EVs in the future. Fine for high mileage drivers not so good for low mileage long term owners.

    This may be true but there's no proof one way or another. It's all wait and see at this point. But the key point I believe here is that while I will grant that there's no guarantee of a 20 yr problem-free life, neither can the doubting Thomas's impute an automatic cost of replacement at the end of the warranty period. There simply is no absolute proof of age longevity.

    There is however beginning to be a volume of proof that mileage has no bearing on the performance of the batteries. 250,000 miles or 300,000 miles seems very very likely. We shall soon see with my friend Mr Carbot who just turned over 203,000 miles. That's the 2nd Prius he purchased from me. I'm chasing him but I'm far behind at 30 months ( 81,000 mi ) while he's at 54 months ( 203,000 mi ). He will likely reach 250,000 - 260,000 by the time his Gen 3 arrives next summer.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,166
    There is however beginning to be a volume of proof that mileage has no bearing on the performance of the batteries. 250,000 miles or 300,000 miles seems very very likely. We shall soon see with my friend Mr Carbot who just turned over 203,000 miles. That's the 2nd Prius he purchased from me. I'm chasing him but I'm far behind at 30 months ( 81,000 mi ) while he's at 54 months ( 203,000 mi ). He will likely reach 250,000 - 260,000 by the time his Gen 3 arrives next summer

    All nice mileage figures. There is a 900k mile Mercedes Sprinter still going in Germany. That again has nothing to do with aging gracefully. I don't think the hybrids will have that luxury.

    Now that the mileage question is put to rest

    Mileage has never been a consideration in my buying a vehicle EVER. It has always been longevity. It was longevity on this forum when the Prius first came to San Diego. When we see Prius of any ilk still going strong with good MPG when they are 10 years old I will be convinced. Nothing you or Larsb have said gives me a warm feeling about the longevity of a hybrid. The only thing I see with a vehicle that is 3 years old and 100k miles is some poor slob that spends too much of his life behind the wheel of a car. Risking my life 10k miles per year is plenty.

    We can come back to this in 5 years if you like...
  • avalon02whavalon02wh Posts: 726
    "That has been one of the sticking points in my mind since the hybrid hit the streets. For those of us conservative drivers will the hybrid be a good "green" long term purchase? If it needs a new battery after 10 years the answer is a resounding NO! "

    You are not a conservative driver/purchaser. You need to check the definition of the word conservative.

    You bought a Sequoia which uses
    $4102 dollars of fuels per year,
    Needs 22.8 Barrels of oil per year,
    Emits 12.2 tons of CO2 per year, and
    Has an air pollution score of 3

    And you are worried about the batteries on a Prius lasting 10 years!

    How much value is left in that Sequoia now that fuel prices are high?
    Trade in 2007 Sequoia, 15,000 miles = $18,200
    Trade in 2007 Prius, 15,000 miles = $25,225

    If I was a Prius owner I'd be shaking in my boots about spending a few thousand dollars on batteries in ten years. [Bob Newhart :D ] Those of you that bought a Sequoia, on the other hand, watched your SUV drop $15,000 to $20,000 in depreciation in just two years.

    Let's get down to the root issue about the Prius. There is a whole segment of people that just can't handle saving fuel because, well let me quote the following;

    "Now, more than ever, we need Hummer, in all its defiant, obnoxious, thoroughly American glory. "
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/11/AR2008071102535.- html

    The battery issue is just a smoke screen brought up by people that just cannot stomach a fuel efficient or environmentally friendly vehicle. We can't have the "Terminator" driving around in a battery powered car, can we? Its just not American, or at least their definition of American.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,166
    You bought a Sequoia which uses
    $4102 dollars of fuels per year,
    Needs 22.8 Barrels of oil per year,
    Emits 12.2 tons of CO2 per year, and
    Has an air pollution score of 3

    And you are worried about the batteries on a Prius lasting 10 years!


    You do make a lot of assumptions in your posts. First our Sequoia only has 5700 miles after 10 months of use including one trip to AZ and several trips to the desert. The car we use the most is our 1990 LS400 that is nearing the 95k mile mark on the Odo. What are the odds that we could have kept a Prius for 19 years with nothing major failing?

    Let's get down to the root issue about the Prius. There is a whole segment of people that just can't handle saving fuel


    Again you are assuming that is me. If you could go back on this site to 1998 you would have found my first posts were in search of a more fuel efficient PU truck. Ten years later there are still NO decent fuel efficient PU trucks sold in the USA. Every other country in the world have diesel PU trucks getting 30-45 MPG except US. So maybe it is contrarian position when we buy big SUVs in this country. It just may be we are trying to tell our flaky government that we are unhappy with their ignorant regulations and tariffs (aka as chicken tax).

    Yes the Sequoia dropped $10k before it ever left the dealers lot. And they are the ones that took that loss. I am patient and will find someone that just has to have a 2007 Sequoia Limited 4X4 that is loaded after I get a diesel SUV that I like. I beat the odds with the GMC Hybrid PU by waiting. It was worth $7000 more than the GMC dealer would offer me.

    So I am not worried nearly as much as I would with the clock ticking on that Prius Battery life.

    We will know more in 5+ years about hybrid battery longevity.

    Gas to date on 07 Sequoia $1248.73. Just filled so good for a safe motoring 300 miles :shades:
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    Prius Battery replacement costs announced:

    Not $4000

    Also at the seminar, Toyota announced a price cut for replacement battery packs for its Prius hybrids. Built in a joint venture with Panasonic, the replacement battery for the first-generation Prius costs $2,299; for the second-generation model, the cost is $2,588. The replacement nickel-metal-hydride batteries previously cost $2,985 for either variety. There are more than 600,000 of the hybrids on the road. Prices are for replacements after the warranty expires. The original-equipment batteries carry a 10-year/150,000-mile warranty in California-compliant states and an eight-year/80,000-mile warranty elsewhere.

    So now the "out of warranty" owners can start budgeting.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Posts: 7,160
    I hit 90,000 miles yesterday in 34 months. VA is a Fed Warranty state.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,166
    Does that price include the core rebate? If it is like most dealers, you will get a different price at 10 different dealers. Plus what is the labor charge to replace and re-program the computer? Based on the cost of an oil change at Toyota, that could be a grand or more.
  • I hope someone can help. I just read this short article at ButteryBlend.com that talks about new Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries that will revolutionize hybrid cars. What do they use now? Lithium Cobalt Oxide batteries? Awesome article none the less. Thanks for the time.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Posts: 7,160
    Those prices are the walkup full retail prices at the Parts Desk, sans labor or old battery rebate ( $200 ). Over on PriusChat I read that a swap in and out takes about 4 hours or about $500 in labor. Also over there I read that one dealer is offering the batteries under $2000 already.

    If the cost of labor for the swap is based on the cost of oil changes here then the price would be FREE... ;)
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,166
    Not at my dealership. It cost $64.60 for the 5000 mile oil and filter change. Using cheapo 30 weight dino oil. It was $70 more for synthetic. It will be my last service at Toyota for sure. GMC across the street sent me free oil change coupons on my GMC PU truck. In 13k miles I never paid a penny for service.

    So in CA I would expect a battery change for a Prius to top $5,000 easy. Maybe more.
  • kipkkipk Posts: 1,576
    Has anyone actually figured the "Break Even" cost of Hybrid vs Conventional with equal amenities.

    Talking about initial difference of purchase price. A while back I compared the MSRP of a Civic Hybrid vs a comparably equipped conventional engined Civic. Seems the difference was in the $5k range. Another factor to consider is that dealers are most likely more willing to "deal" in a conventional engined car. But for the purposes of this post, consider a $4k difference.

    Example: At 7%, Financing a $24K car loan for 72 months would cost $447.59 monthly, $32,226 total cost. While financing $20K would be $373 monthly, $26855 total cost. $5371 extra total for the Hybrid.

    At 15K miles a year, Simple math says over the 72 months the 45 average mpg hybrid will use 2, 000 gallon of fuel. While a 32 mph conventional car would burn 2,812 gallons. Hybrid saves 812 gallons of fuel.

    At $4 per gallon the hybrid would save $3248 in fuel cost. At $5 the hybrid would save $4060 in fuel. So it seems the break even point would be much longer than 6 years and 90K miles for the typical driver.

    This is assuming nothing goes wrong with the batteries or any of the other components that operate the "Hybrid" system. So far we have only been told that the batteries last a long time. What about the other "Hybrid" components?

    Obviously more complicated math than I've used here would fall into play. Figuring in if the fuel saved each month was used to buy CDs and so forth.

    Kip
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Posts: 7,160
    First there is no such concept as 'Break Even' in this analysis unless you use the vehicle for some business purpose and generate income from its use. What you mean to say is ...
    "If I keep a vehicle for 'X' number of years ( pick a number ) then which of the following two vehicles will cost me less over that timeframe and miles driven factoring in fuel costs, maintenance, insurance and resale value"

    Has anyone actually figured the "Break Even" cost of Hybrid vs Conventional with equal amenities.

    Yes this has been done so often it's very old news and the problem is ALWAYS posed incorrectly ( see above ). CR does it about once or twice a year. They just published an article with that info in it.

    Talking about initial difference of purchase price. A while back I compared the MSRP of a Civic Hybrid vs a comparably equipped conventional engined Civic. Seems the difference was in the $5k range. Another factor to consider is that dealers are most likely more willing to "deal" in a conventional engined car. But for the purposes of this post, consider a $4k difference.

    Your math is WAY OFF here in regards to the Civic gasser vs HCH. At most it's about $3000. The Prius is $4000 more than the Matrix. The TCH ranges from $1500 to $3000 more than the gasser Camry depending on trim level.

    Example: At 7%, Financing a $24K car loan for 72 months would cost $447.59 monthly, $32,226 total cost. While financing $20K would be $373 monthly, $26855 total cost. $5371 extra total for the Hybrid.

    OK you were talking about adding in the financing costs. Your numbers sound about correct.

    At 15K miles a year, Simple math says over the 72 months the 45 average mpg hybrid will use 2, 000 gallon of fuel. While a 32 mph conventional car would burn 2,812 gallons. Hybrid saves 812 gallons of fuel.

    At $4 per gallon the hybrid would save $3248 in fuel cost. At $5 the hybrid would save $4060 in fuel. So it seems the break even point would be much longer than 6 years and 90K miles for the typical driver.

    This is assuming nothing goes wrong with the batteries or any of the other components that operate the "Hybrid" system. So far we have only been told that the batteries last a long time. What about the other "Hybrid" components?

    Obviously more complicated math than I've used here would fall into play. Figuring in if the fuel saved each month was used to buy CDs and so forth.


    Your math on the fuel savings is accurate also even to the point of factoring in an inflation estimate. Most don't do this ( including Edmunds ).

    But what all the analyses miss is RESALE value, especially if fuel does go north of $4 or $5 a gallon.

    That $4000 premium initially paid is partially recovered when the vehicle is sold. The shorter period that the vehicle is held the more of the 'hybrid premium' is recovered at resale. A 6 y.o. hybrid is worth more than a 6 y.o. gasser of the same model. How much more depends on the vehicle, the market at the time and a lot of other factors. As an example last July USED 1 y.o. Prius' which originally has an MSRP of $22000, with 10-12000 miles on them, were going for $26000 - $28000 at auctions. Not only was there no depreciation but the buyers actually had 25% appreciation. Now if you say that you're a 'keeper' normally staying with a vehicle for 10-12 years, then the fuel savings will accumulate for another 6 years or another $3000-$4000 in savings. Yes it's a close decision as to whether the costs equal each other

    Regarding the maintenance on the hybrid systems....there is NONE. As in ZERO! It's all electric so there's nothing to be done to them. Since they've been on the market now for 11 yrs it's becoming apparent that the hybrid electric components might be the MOST reliable parts of the vehicle. It's one reason why there's so much interest now in PHEVs, E-REVs, EVs, etc.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Posts: 7,160
    So using your example and the two vehicles that you chose lets see which costs less to purchase and to drive over 6 yrs.

    Assumptions: Yours are accurate IMO except that RESALE VALUES are not factored in.

    Hondas and Toyotas lose about 10% per year in Resale Value as they age. Lets say that both the gasser Civic and the HCH both lose 60% of their value over 6 yrs.

    $24000 * 60% = $14400 Depreciation
    $20000 * 60% = $12000 Depreciation
    Net Extra cost: $2400

    6 * 15000 mi = 90000 mi driven @ 45 mpg = 2000 gal used
    6 * 15000 mi = 90000 mi driven @ 32 mpg = 2812 gal used

    Cost of fuel is
    812 * $4 = $3248
    812 * $5 = $4060

    CD interest 'foregone'
    $4000 * 4% for 6 yrs = $1060

    Summary
    Initially you spend $4000 more for the HCH but on resale you recover $1600 of that. However in buying the HCH you 'forego' $1060 in CD interest over that period of time. Your net extra cost is ~$3500.

    In fuel expenses..
    @ $4 a gallon on average you will save ~$3250 over 6 yrs and 90,000 mi.
    @ $5 a gallon on average you will save ~$4050 over 6 yrs and 90,000 mi

    It looks like a wash to me. Both vehicles will cost about the same to purchase and drive over that specific time and mileage. Take your pick.

    Currently there is a small Fed Tax Cred on the HCH and some states waive sales tax if you buy a hybrid. Hey it looks like the people in the Marketing Department at Honda did a good job of pricing each vehicle.
  • kipkkipk Posts: 1,576
    kdhspyder,

    Thank you for your reply.

    >"Your math is WAY OFF here in regards to the Civic gasser vs HCH. At most it's about $3000."

    I'm thinkin that If anything, my $4000 for comparison may have been a bit low.

    I just went back to Edmunds and checked the MSRP on a few vehicles, for the sake of comparison, Using the automatic tranny. We know, that how a car is actually equipped will reflect the actual MSRP as well as the actual selling price.

    I don't know how the base or the high end models are equipped.

    The Civic Hybrids ranged from $23,550 to $26,750
    The Civic gassers ranged from $16,205 to $22,205
    Extra cost for Hybrid................$7,345 to $ 4,555

    Toyota Camry only showed 1 hybrid. The price is $26,150
    The gas Camry ranged in price from $20,195 to $22,815
    Extra cost for the Hybrid ranges from $3945 to $5,955

    The Prius Ranges from $22,000 to $24,270.
    The gas Corolla Ranges from $16,150 to $20,050.
    Extra cost for the Prius ranges from $5850 to $4220.

    Using the Edmunds "Comparator", The Corolla is closer in size to the Prius than the Camry is. Actually the Corolla is a bit larger than the Prius. The Camry is larger than either. So I compared the Corolla to the Prius. I gave the low to high ranges because the different equipment can require that maybe a a base gasser is not equipped as well as a base hybrid and so forth.

    We also need to consider that the dealers are going to hold the Hybrid prices as high as possible, and possibly even add on a "Supply and Demand" fee to the bottom line. Where as they are "dealing" on the gassers as the market is becoming flooded with them.

    The "Hype" is on as you pointed out with:
    >"As an example last July USED 1 y.o. Prius' which originally has an MSRP of $22000, with 10-12000 miles on them, were going for $26000 - $28000 at auctions. Not only was there no depreciation but the buyers actually had 25% appreciation."

    Why anyone would want to pay the dealer that $26K-$28K PLUS dealer profit for a used Prius is beyond logic to me.

    >"If I keep a vehicle for 'X' number of years ( pick a number ) then which of the following two vehicles will cost me less over that timeframe and miles driven factoring in fuel costs, maintenance, insurance and resale value"

    That sounds one fair way of saying it! In my above post I was simply trying to point out the possible length of time the average driver would/could expect to drive before he was getting out of the "Extra cost" Hole. Getting to the Break Even point of owning a Hybrid rather than a gasser. :)

    Seems that everyone is jumping on the Hybrid band wagon right now. So we don't know the value of todays hybrids in the future. Batteries as we know them may be a thing of the past, which would hurt the resale of present day technologies. Of course, gassers may also be a thing of the past.

    Regards,
    Kip
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Posts: 7,160
    In your analysis you mentioned comparing vehicles of roughly equal equipment.

    The Civic hybrid is roughly equal to the Civic EX, No leather and No Navi.
    http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/2008/index.html#search=open.eq..amp.p.eq.cveh- icledata%23%23-1%23%23-1%7E%7Ef64%7C%7C536564616e%7E%7Enf51%7C%7C436f6d70616374
    The respective Base prices are $19510 and $22600,i.e. about a $3000 difference.

    The Prius is not comparable to a Corolla. The Prius is a 5 door hatchback the Corolla is a 4 door sedan. The Prius is more accurately comparable to the Matrix which is also a 4cyl 5 door hatchback
    The respective prices, with similar equipment, are $20400 and $24400,i.e. about a $4000 difference

    The standard TCH is very close in equipment to the 4c XLE Camry gasser.
    The respective prices are $27400 and $29200 ( both have cloth, SR but no Navi ), i.e. about an $1800 difference.

    The auction prices that I mentioned in my post were NOT the resale prices being asked to the public. They were the purchase prices being paid by professional buyers on behalf of the dealers in order to secure those vehicles. Then the vehicles had to be transported back to the buying store, prepped, financed and resold. Some stores had as many as 20-40 of these in stock and the public willingly understood that they were paying $5000 - $10000 above the original sticker. The market speaks.

    Again there is no 'Break Even' point unless you are generating income with your vehicle. What you actually have is two columns of expenses, one for vehicle A and one for vehicle B.
    In the case of the Civic / HCH comparo the bottom lines are about equal at 6 yrs but the HCH costs less if the vehicle is kept 10-12 yrs.
    In the case of the Prius / Matrix the costs are about equal at about 5 yrs but the Prius costs less if the vehicle is kept 10-12 yrs.
    In the case of the TCH / Camry the costs are about equal at 2-3 yrs but thereafter the TCH costs much less than the gasser sibling.
  • kipkkipk Posts: 1,576
    >"The standard TCH is very close in equipment to the 4c XLE Camry gasser.
    The respective prices are $27400 and $29200 ( both have cloth, SR but no Navi ), i.e. about an $1800 difference."


    WHEN, a Hybrid of comparable size and weight and equipment can be bought at $1800 more than a gasser, it will be a value.
    You and I both know that just ain't happening. The battery pack alone cost more than that.

    Also the dealers are not "dealing" on the Hybrids. They are "dealing" on the gassers. If anything, they may tend to add more $1500-$2500 "Protection" to the hybrids. Such as, pin stripe, fabric protection (scotch guard), and the infamous acid rain paint protector. These items are added by the "Get Ready" department at the dealer. Biggest cost to the dealer is the wage paid to the guy spraying, washing, and stretching the tape.

    Add to that the "Supply and demand", sticker and the "We just aren't going to deal on this one" mentality, and there is a huge difference in the price of a Hybrid and Comparably Equipped, same size vehicle. Your dealership may be different.

    >The auction prices that I mentioned in my post were NOT the resale prices being asked to the public. They were the purchase prices being paid by professional buyers on behalf of the dealers in order to secure those vehicles. Then the vehicles had to be transported back to the buying store, prepped, financed and resold. Some stores had as many as 20-40 of these in stock and the public willingly understood that they were paying $5000 - $10000 above the original sticker."

    There ya go !. When used ones are selling for $5000 - $10000 more than the new MSRP, How much is the price of a new one jacked up?

    Just so we are on the same page or at least in the same book, I personally feel that the Toyota and the Honda are be best values in the automotive world. Everything considered.

    However, right now, I don't think the Hybrids are worth the real world "Extra" cost.

    >"Again there is no ' Break Even' point unless you are generating income with your vehicle."

    At $5,000-$10,000 extra cost for the Hybrid, you are right. There is no ' break even' point.

    In this case, For me, "Break Even" is : When the higher initial cost of the Hybrid is compensated for by fuel savings, the "Break Even" point is reached. It has cost as much to own one as the other. From that point, I'm saving money, until time to replace batteries or something else went wrong that is Hybrid exclusive.

    I don't understand how/why you feel there is only "Break Even" for those using the car to generate income. Please explain ! :confuse:

    Thanks, :)
    Kip
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Posts: 7,160
    The $1800 pricing difference is right off the Toyota website. There's no getting around it. What you saying about the pricing difference is incorrect because while the TCH with similar equipment does cost more than the I4 non-hybrid but it also costs less then the V6 non-hybrid by about $1000.

    All the other stuff that you note about protection and worthless addons is only a local/regional issue. It also depends on one's ability to say 'NO'.

    I don't understand how/why you feel there is only "Break Even" for those using the car to generate income. Please explain

    'Break Even' is a specific accounting concept that occurs when income equals expense ( usually fixed expense ). If you are the normal retail buyer then you don't generate any income by the use of your vehicle.

    If you were a small business ( which in fact you are with your family budget ) the correct way to do an analysis is that you or your accountant would do an analysis of two vehicles; add up all the expected expenses over the expected life of the two vehicles then you'd choose which vehicle cost you less in total expenses. That's the only valid comparo to make.

    In almost all cases the hybrids cost less then the non-hybrid versions.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,166
    I checked at the first dealer on the list here in San Diego. Mossy Toyota.
    All 2009 except noted:
    Camry Hybrid 5 each $32,129
    Camry XLE 2.4L 3 each $26,269
    Camry XLE V6 one each $29,429 (2008)
    Prius 11 each Start at $24,869 to $28,844
    Matrix 12 each from $19,519 to $23,879 with AWD

    That is $5860 more for the Camry hybrid over the Camry XLE 4 cyl. I cannot see ever getting the value form a hybrid in CA. Your prices may vary. We have 11 dealers and they all have similar or higher pricing.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Posts: 7,160
    It's only a matter of ordering properly. In your example you're talking about specific vehicles in stock. There can be twice that many either on order or enroute with completely different prices and equipment combos.

    In the first two vehicles you compared a loaded TCH with leather, Navi and Sunroof to a standard XLE 4c without leather or Navi. Your comparo is the most specific of all specific cases....actual inventory on hand. There's no valid conclusion that can be drawn from looking at actual inventory on hand unless you wanted to drive away this afternoon in one.

    That XLE V6 has to be a Used one or off-Rental vehicle. The new 2008s were gone on President's Day W/E in Feb. The current MSRP for a 2009 XLE V6 is ~$32600.

    Go to the website. Approximate numbers
    XLE V6 $32600
    TCH ... $32100
    XLE I4 $30800

    The Matrix FWD with PO, KE, AA, VS and Z1 is about $20600 MSRP
    The Prius Pck#2 with similar equipment is $ $24400.

    You can get Navi in the Matrix XRS with a SR but not with Bluetooth nor with leather. However this will put you into the $25500 range as opposed to a Package #5 Prius @ $27900 ( Navi / No leather ).
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,166
    It says new 2008 XLE V6. You know how car dealers lie though :blush: .
    Check out the prices. I just picked the top of the list Toyota dealer. They have 3 XLE 4C at $26k.

    http://www.mossytoyota.com/new-inventory/vehicle-details.htm?vehicleId=fd7df9e74- 046381e013c6654b5a8df8f&useHistory=true
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Posts: 7,160
    Toyota stopped making the 2008's last December.

    My guess is that this is a 'down demo' that a manager or owner or member of the owner's family has been driving from Jan til now. It still is regarded as a 'new vehicle' since it's never been sold at retail and never titled. If it's like in VA the 'down demos' have to be parked at about 5000 miles so that they can still be sold as 'new'.
  • QUESTION: The toyota Hybrid Prisu has the ni-mh battery "prismatic" module from panasonic which is 7.2 volts and only 6.5 amphours; how is that so much better than a comparative lead acid battery? IE: A lead acid battery is 13.5volt @ 127 amphours= 1714 watthours. IF you stack nimh modules into the normal lead acid size battery box it comes out to about 17volts @ only 104 amphours = 1768 watthours;
    plus ni-mh modules cost massively more money?
    Can you explain this situation , are we missing something? Sure
    ni-mh lasts longer but we were under the impression that they were also much
    higher power (like 30-50% higher amphours for approximately 14volts systems).
    The "normal" standard of industry is the 20 hour rate of draining.
    Maybe they use a different rate schedule for the ni-mh (normally
    battery amphour ratings are at the 20 hour rate). In other words if a battery is
    rated at 6.5 amphours and that is the true 20 hour rate. That is the
    energy you can get from it over 20 hours. IE a 100 amphour battery means that over 20 hours you can get 5 amps steady draw for 20 hours = 100 amphours.
    Faster draining is less IE . same 100 amphour rated battery drained at 10 amps
    would only last "perhaps" 7-8 hours (its not linearly proportional).
    Thanks for any information you can give on this.
    We really thought the ni-mh was at least 30% better energy density.
    Thanks, Inventor
This discussion has been closed.