Chronic Car Buyers Anonymous

benjaminh

The math seems to indicate that we might not reach a peak on this thing for at least another couple of months, and maybe longer. My guess is that waiting a few months might provide good buying opportunities, although trade-in values will also go lower. But my guess also is that Acura, BMW, Volvo etc. might be reluctant to really increase incentives by much. But dealers themselves will likely be eager to start getting rid of their costly inventory at some point....Just my speculative 2 cents.

kyfdx

GTI update. Last tank 32 MPG. 80% highway. Not bad.

28firefighter

Realistically I think you’ll see supply chain disruptions that will slow new inventory coming in, so you won’t see massive incentives since there won’t be a surplus. Just my guess.

Sandman6472

Saturday has been confirmed as a go for this week, so two weeks in a row of six days. The check will be nice. Looked at the market today and cant believe how low things have dropped. It's just nuts! A great time to dollar cost average to be honest and things will improve eventually.
Glad we're busy and happy to get the extra hours. Just a bit tired when I get home. But this to shall pass!

corvette

kyfdx said:

GTI update. Last tank 32 MPG. 80% highway. Not bad.

How many clutch replacements on that tank?

corvette

I’ve hatched a plot to make the Tundra get even worse fuel mileage. The 2020 model is no longer officially E85 compatible, but I may try a tank just to see what happens.

stickguy

good input. That was pretty much my thoughts. I have no clue.

I guess the question was not so much speculating if a couple months from now the deals would be better. It was if buying now, even for a pretty good deal, was a dumb idea! sometimes waiting to see how things shake out before making a move.

and no worries about trade in values dropping. That part (selling the old buggy) is happening regardless in the next week. Only question if a new car replaces it at the same time.

28firefighter

stickguy said:

good input. That was pretty much my thoughts. I have no clue.

I guess the question was not so much speculating if a couple months from now the deals would be better. It was if buying now, even for a pretty good deal, was a dumb idea! sometimes waiting to see how things shake out before making a move.

and no worries about trade in values dropping. That part (selling the old buggy) is happening regardless in the next week. Only question if a new car replaces it at the same time.

It could be better. But are you going to be shopping again to find out?

stickguy

well, if we hold off on buying and things go south, at least we have money in the bank instead of a car payment!

and if normalcy returns can always buy something at any time.

qbrozen

stickguy said:

well, if we hold off on buying and things go south, at least we have money in the bank instead of a car payment!

and if normalcy returns can always buy something at any time.

Did your deal fall through?

graphicguy

70+ day update on the Stinger.....~2,000 miles....~21 MPG Avg (the car computer is much more accurate than the one in my TLX). No squeaks, no rattles....just a really fun car to drive. Not much out there that will beat it in stop light wars....much to the surprise of older Mustang GTs and Camaro SSs

Nits....I wish the back window was easier to see out of.

All-in-all....quite pleased so far.

stickguy

qbrozen said:

stickguy said:

well, if we hold off on buying and things go south, at least we have money in the bank instead of a car payment!

and if normalcy returns can always buy something at any time.

Did your deal fall through?

no. scheduled to complete it this afternoon. Was just thinking (and just discussed with the wife) about doing in stages. Sell the old car now (Carvana) and sit on the cash for a bit, sharing the 2 cars in the house (since our daughter lives here again, and is probably going to WFH for at least a few weeks). Then down the line, go back out and buy a replacement. Hopefully at a better overall deal (no guarantee) but at least at a more sane time!

after going to Shop rite today and seeing the madness, forget about cars, I might not want to go out at all in the next month! what a zoo. Toilet paper frenzy. Looked like a combo if a zombie apocalypse and predicted big snow storm combined. But at least we have our normal weekend food shopping out of the way so nicely stocked up.

Wife's opinion was to just do it. Might not do better overall by waiting, but mostly, she does not want to go through the hassle again next month! She apparently knows me too well. Though with no trade involved, shopping is vastly easier.

Only thing definite is that the current RDX is going now. If not traded in to dealer today, I am uploading the documents to carvana and scheduling a pick up.

nyccarguy

Mom’s Cayenne is still for sale at the Lexus dealer. Down to $24,863.

stickguy

I high miles Porsche SUV? Can't imagine why that isn't selling.

kyfdx

stickguy said:

I high miles Porsche SUV? Can't imagine why that isn't selling.

Maybe your wife should check it out?

stickguy

she didn't even want to consider a service loaner BMW or Volvo. So pretty sure that ain't gonna fly.

28firefighter

If you want it, you should get it. If you're getting cold feet, just walk away.

One of our daily activities when the sun is out is getting the ZHP out for a cruise on some good roads not too far from me. No human interaction, proper social distancing, but out of the house for a bit. That works until they start restricting movement, of course.

oldfarmer50

nyccarguy said:

Which driver was more upset when you smashed their car getting out?

oldfarmer50

qbrozen said:

nice, stick.

just this second, we were having the opposite discussion. I finally told her that we could get a 4-door taco for about the same as the Hyundai. She actually responded positively. But then we are saying how much we love the fuel sipping of the Ioniq and, per her, maybe with an impending imploding economy, we'd want something we don't have to feed much.

But when the world comes to an end how will you plug it in?

oldfarmer50

stickguy said:

question for the experts (and self proclaimed experts) and anyone that has an opinion or WAG.

with the escalating situation (all entwined economy and quarantine) what do you think is going to happen to sales and dealers in the next 2-4 weeks when it is probably the most chaos, then maybe the next month (into Mid May?) Are sales likely to crater while the cars pile up, and once people start being able to be more out and about, loads of extra incentives and fighting for sales (a real buyers market?) Or will makers kinda scale back too temporarily so things somewhat hold steady for now?

Kinda curious what the showrooms will look like this weekend compared to last weekend when they were packed. Who knows, with lots of people sent home and activities cancelled they might have more time to kill and go out shopping anyway!

I guess this is trying to guess if this situation is relatively temporary and in a month or 2 everything will be relatively back to normal and the markets rebounding, or if we are going to see a more protracted scale back if not recession. and of course, the chance that the death toll really sky rockets.

Until the panic subsided many people will put off a major purchase. Might be a good time to swoop in for a deal.

qbrozen

UGH! Our school district just closed for 2 weeks.

28firefighter

qbrozen said:

UGH! Our school district just closed for 2 weeks.

It is the right thing to do. Hearing from some front-line ICU docs that this is really really stressing the system because of how many patients are requiring critical care when they come in.

andres3

Toilet paper squares might be worth more than a gallon of gasoline soon.

stickguy

Just heard our schools are staying open for now. Pending the state authority telling them to close.

Situations like this make being old with kids grown much less hassle.

28firefighter

My wife and I were discussing the fact that if this were just us and no little one, it'd be very simple - lots of TV and lots of books until this whole thing passes.

All our schools are closed but our childcare facility is trying to stay open as best they can - the teachers who can want to be with the students for as long as they're allowed. Kids are only staying in their classrooms with less than 15 total students - they're eating meals there, etc. So no exposure to large groups indoors. Outside groups are being kept to under 50 in line with CDC and Public Health guidelines for groups of young children. All at-risk teachers have been excused with pay.

I appreciate greatly what they're doing. We've been offering the administration words of support regardless of what they choose to do - unprecedented times.

andres3

Found 9 rolls of toilet paper on Amazon for about $85. Ridiculous.

I'd rather use Hanes White T-Shirts, and it would be cheaper

Michaell

andres3 said:

Found 9 rolls of toilet paper on Amazon for about $85. Ridiculous.

I'd rather use Hanes White T-Shirts, and it would be cheaper

Check out the site webstaurant.com - my wife uses it to order supplies for the kids cooking studio they run. Might be some industrial grade stuff there, but not at an exhorbitant cost.

Michaell

28firefighter said:

My wife and I were discussing the fact that if this were just us and no little one, it'd be very simple - lots of TV and lots of books until this whole thing passes.

All our schools are closed but our childcare facility is trying to stay open as best they can - the teachers who can want to be with the students for as long as they're allowed. Kids are only staying in their classrooms with less than 15 total students - they're eating meals there, etc. So no exposure to large groups indoors. Outside groups are being kept to under 50 in line with CDC and Public Health guidelines for groups of young children. All at-risk teachers have been excused with pay.

I appreciate greatly what they're doing. We've been offering the administration words of support regardless of what they choose to do - unprecedented times.

A lot of child care centers are trying to stay open, as they are almost all for-profit businesses. I don't think there will be any price gouging, but who knows.

A couple of the school districts around me are closing for the next 2-3 weeks. As the spring breaks for them are scheduled for next week or the week after, this shouldn't be a huge inconvenience for many families.

The wife just got a call from a family who had a birthday party scheduled for tomorrow - they want to postpone until April. What makes them think things will be any better 4-6 weeks from now? But, no refunds on their deposit, so they can't really cancel.

On the other hand, they did get a few new enrollments for their week-long spring break camps as travel plans for some families have been scratched due to this.

stickguy

My wife suggested just taking it from work.

tjc78

Just heard our schools are staying open for now. Pending the state authority telling them to close.


Same here.

corvette

28firefighter said:

If you want it, you should get it. If you're getting cold feet, just walk away.

One of our daily activities when the sun is out is getting the ZHP out for a cruise on some good roads not too far from me. No human interaction, proper social distancing, but out of the house for a bit. That works until they start restricting movement, of course.

WEB at one point decreed that the annual meeting in Omaha will proceed as planned. Now it looks like they plan to provide more info at the beginning of April. I haven't cancelled my trip to the Black Hills yet.

suydam

Michaell said:

28firefighter said:

My wife and I were discussing the fact that if this were just us and no little one, it'd be very simple - lots of TV and lots of books until this whole thing passes.

All our schools are closed but our childcare facility is trying to stay open as best they can - the teachers who can want to be with the students for as long as they're allowed. Kids are only staying in their classrooms with less than 15 total students - they're eating meals there, etc. So no exposure to large groups indoors. Outside groups are being kept to under 50 in line with CDC and Public Health guidelines for groups of young children. All at-risk teachers have been excused with pay.

I appreciate greatly what they're doing. We've been offering the administration words of support regardless of what they choose to do - unprecedented times.

A lot of child care centers are trying to stay open, as they are almost all for-profit businesses. I don't think there will be any price gouging, but who knows.

A couple of the school districts around me are closing for the next 2-3 weeks. As the spring breaks for them are scheduled for next week or the week after, this shouldn't be a huge inconvenience for many families.

The wife just got a call from a family who had a birthday party scheduled for tomorrow - they want to postpone until April. What makes them think things will be any better 4-6 weeks from now? But, no refunds on their deposit, so they can't really cancel.

On the other hand, they did get a few new enrollments for their week-long spring break camps as travel plans for some families have been scratched due to this.

I know this is tough for you, but you might want to reconsider the no refunds policy during this critical time.

qbrozen

28firefighter said:

It is the right thing to do. Hearing from some front-line ICU docs that this is really really stressing the system because of how many patients are requiring critical care when they come in.

Considering how few real cases there are, I don't think that is true. I can see where they are likely getting more hypochondriac reaction than normal, but increase in those needing actual care? Very doubtful, unless cases are being severely underreported, which would be exactly the opposite of what the news outlets would like to do.

qbrozen

Here is at least one article:
https://www.modernhealthcare.com/safety-quality/coronavirus-not-yet-impacting-national-hospital-operations

28firefighter

qbrozen said:

28firefighter said:

It is the right thing to do. Hearing from some front-line ICU docs that this is really really stressing the system because of how many patients are requiring critical care when they come in.

Considering how few real cases there are, I don't think that is true. I can see where they are likely getting more hypochondriac reaction than normal, but increase in those needing actual care? Very doubtful, unless cases are being severely underreported, which would be exactly the opposite of what the news outlets would like to do.

There has been an exponential increase here in patients needing critical care - ventilators, etc.. Here is an article from Seattle:
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/short-staffed-and-undersupplied-coronavirus-crisis-strains-seattle-areas-capacity-to-deliver-care/

My personal opinion is that the "not in my backyard yet" is exactly why Seattle is in the situation it is right now. Proactive steps now mean a much shorter, less painful social distancing experience.

Obviously your call how you want to modify your behavior.

qbrozen

28firefighter said:

qbrozen said:

28firefighter said:

It is the right thing to do. Hearing from some front-line ICU docs that this is really really stressing the system because of how many patients are requiring critical care when they come in.

Considering how few real cases there are, I don't think that is true. I can see where they are likely getting more hypochondriac reaction than normal, but increase in those needing actual care? Very doubtful, unless cases are being severely underreported, which would be exactly the opposite of what the news outlets would like to do.

There has been an exponential increase here in patients needing critical care - ventilators, etc.. Here is an article from Seattle:
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/short-staffed-and-undersupplied-coronavirus-crisis-strains-seattle-areas-capacity-to-deliver-care/

My personal opinion is that the "not in my backyard yet" is exactly why Seattle is in the situation it is right now. Proactive steps now mean a much shorter, less painful social distancing experience.

Obviously your call how you want to modify your behavior.

well, YOUR county has 270 cases. Considering you probably have... what? .. A few thousand beds in hospitals in that area? It is likely still an exaggerated burden. I think they've said something like 10% require urgent care, meaning a whopping 27 people in your entire county require critical care.

I'm not making the argument about proper distancing, just arguing the need for such crazy panic.

fintail

I think there have been 31 deaths in WA so far, mostly in King County. The real panic is the shoppers, but it seems the contagion is real.

Waiting to see what happens when volumes of urgent care workers aren't showing up for work.

28firefighter

The panic is completely unnecessary - but many are not taking it seriously. Thankfully that is changing. Seattle schools are closed for 6 weeks - that probably could have been cut down dramatically had they taken the virus seriously when it first arrived here a month ago.

Last I saw a chart comparing the case growth with Italy, we are roughly 11 days behind their outbreak and tracking with their case numbers almost exactly. So, now we get to find out if getting in front of social distancing now before it expands is going to make a meaningful difference.

kyfdx

Needs advice

https://forums.edmunds.com/discussion/60725/subaru/x/is-car-with-200k-miles-but-with-a-2k-miles-rebuilt-motor-worth-it#latest

jmonroe

kyfdx said:

Needs advice

https://forums.edmunds.com/discussion/60725/subaru/x/is-car-with-200k-miles-but-with-a-2k-miles-rebuilt-motor-worth-it#latest

FWIW, I put in my 2 cents worth but I think the other experts in here should jump in too.

jmonroe

suydam

The problem is we don’t know how many cases there actually are, due to the lack of test availability. In my county there are currently no cases, but they’ve only tested 41 people! Friends returning from Italy were not screened, just given cards advising them to sel-isolate, and allowed to take public transports home. So our feeling that there are very few cases could be a false sense of security. Until we get better reporting there’s no way to know.

qbrozen

suydam said:

The problem is we don’t know how many cases there actually are, due to the lack of test availability. In my county there are currently no cases, but they’ve only tested 41 people! Friends returning from Italy were not screened, just given cards advising them to sel-isolate, and allowed to take public transports home. So our feeling that there are very few cases could be a false sense of security. Until we get better reporting there’s no way to know.

yes, fair enough, but those unreported cases are also likely not serious and, therefore, irrelevant. If nothing else, they'd only serve to support NOT panicking, and they'd drop the fatality rate considerably. I'd say it is likely this is far more widespread, but since it is not life-threatening for the vast majority, we'll never know about it.

suydam

Or in early stages, so we won’t know if they are life threatening for awhile. I think it will take at least a few weeks to figure it all out.

cdnpinhead

It's all about the denominator. Anyone want to do an over/under on how many people on the street (or, worse yet, the internet) have a clue what a denominator is or how it relates to the percentage of people who are infected die?

And yet all of these creatures can vote. Thankfully, many of them don't.

sda

kyfdx said:

GTI update. Last tank 32 MPG. 80% highway. Not bad.

And driving the speed limit??

ab348

Things escalated quickly here today. The provincial govt put in place a number of restrictions on its own staff (14 day self isolation for anyone returning from international travel, plus the same for school students), shut down all gatherings of more than 150 people, basically cancelling most events, and threatened more intervention if things go sideways. The Feds banned cruise ships from arriving and announced restrictions on international flight arrivals. Nova Scotia is still awaiting its first reported case and a few hundred suspicious cases have been tested and been all negative so far. Schools are on March break next week and there is speculation they may announce a future closure next week. Panic buying set in afterwards with supermarket shelves cleaned out of things like potatoes, rice and canned soup.

I’m torn; I don’t deny the seriousness of this but I also know the Chief Public Health Doctor here pretty well from having worked with him. I would describe him as a self-important, arrogant loon to be blunt. He is a loose cannon and essentially unmanageable. I have some sympathy for the politicians because he has them over a barrel and if they don’t do what he wants done he will make them look bad in the media. But knowing him tells me to discount some of the things he says, as he always takes the most extreme positions. As it is, lots of small businesses are going to get hurt badly here.

jmonroe

sda said:

kyfdx said:

GTI update. Last tank 32 MPG. 80% highway. Not bad.

And driving the speed limit??

Are trying to get him to incriminate himself. As you know he doesn't have to do that. Of course if it was @andres3, you wouldn't have had to ask.

jmonroe

corvette

The potential consequences of not acting are pretty severe. Things in my area are pretty disjointed - the court system is reducing in person appearances for the next month, a handful of school systems have shut down, my local art museum is closed through the end of the month, but most businesses are open. And the tentative dates they plan to consider reopening are all over the board and seem to be quite optimistic, overall.

I believe my employer will not shut down until if/when they are told they have to. I can do email and phone calls from home, but don't have access to our office management software or network files, which is also fairly essential, and we don't have the internet bandwidth to set up more than a couple of people for remote access.

oldfarmer50

andres3 said:

Found 9 rolls of toilet paper on Amazon for about $85. Ridiculous.

I'd rather use Hanes White T-Shirts, and it would be cheaper

As long as the junk mail catalogs keep coming I’m not worried about a TP shortage.

Besides, I’ve got this thing covered with personal protection.

stickguy

ok, putting aside the virus discussion for a minute, a punch to report. Not sure if I am the only person dumb enough to buy a car on the day federal emergency declared and stores are in chaos from the pandemic. But at least if the world is crashing and burning, we will go down in style!

new car in driveway, old RDX left behind. Wife is now proud owner of a 2020 RDX tech SH AWD. White over Espresso. Quite the learning curve for tech, but she is doing OK so far! Though since her test drive I am the one that drove it (home from dealer than out to dinner). Does drive nice. Much smoother than the old one. many features. I think we will enjoy it. Not sure if the mirrors stick out more (they do seem big) but definitely going to take some practice getting comfy snaking it into the garage. Might be sorry not holding out for power folding mirrors! But it fit.

will post the story of the purchase later. But so far with a whopping 25 miles on it, nice car. Pano roof is wonderful. Loving the seats. excellent steering and handling. Pretty quick too.great radio. Really just need to get settled in with it but that will come with time.

here it is:

https://www.eliteacura.com/inventory/new-2020-acura-rdx-sh-awd-with-technology-package-all-wheel-drive-suv-5j8tc2h56ll034593