Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!





Paying more than MSRP for (new) Hybrids, Depreciation/Value of used Hybrids

SylviaSylvia Posts: 1,636
edited March 6 in General
Hybrid resale values - will they hold?
«13456721

Comments

  • graphicguygraphicguy SW OhioPosts: 7,547
    Not a slight. I always thought that someone who buys a Prius or hybrid Civic bought one as either a knee jerk reaction to some temporary (preceived or real) jump in gas prices was fooling themselves. Yet, some attempted to make the financial case with dismal results. My contention all along was that those who buy the car, should do it because they like the technology, not because they felt it was a sound financial decision.

    A few people tried to convince me and others that the Civic hubrid was either a better car (more/better equipped), or that it made economic sense. Neither of those it true.

    If you buy a hybrid, I don't have any issue with anyone saying they bought it because they thought it drove well, or that they like the "gee whiz" technology that went into it.
  • djasonwdjasonw Posts: 624
    Understood. I guess buying a $50k audi allroad was knee jerk reaction though!! Glad it's gone!
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    > because they felt it was a sound financial decision.

    Explain the millions & millions & millions of SUVs on the road.

    Virtually none of them were a "sound financial decision".

    Economics alone is almost never the sole reason for buying. Purchase decisions are based on a number of factors, some of which cannot even be measured in units of money... a few that only hybrids offer.

    JOHN
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,173
    Explain the millions & millions & millions of SUVs on the road.
    Virtually none of them were a "sound financial decision".


    I disagree. They are as smart of a buying decision as any other vehicle. For one SUV's hold their value better than many cars. The hybrid's resale is a unknown because of the "Fad Factor". When & IF they are as plentiful as SUV's, we will have a better idea of their long term resale value. Right now they remind me of the frenzy of the Mazda Miata. The Miata now is just another sporty car. If you can look into the future and say a car will be worth as much as a MB 300SL Gull wing in 30 years then you can buy a car as an investment. Otherwise it is just a depreciable commodity like a TV. Buy it if you like it. If you like it after you buy it, then it was a sound decision.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    > For one SUV's hold their value better than many cars.

    That is true only when gas is cheap.

    And now that the shape & design of SUV is radically changing, the value edge will likely disappear.

    > When & IF they are as plentiful as SUV's

    That comment makes no sense, since a hybrid can be a SUV.

    Your view of "hybrid" is an futuristic car with limited appeal. Clearly you need to step back and look at the big picture. HSD & IMA are hybrid propulsion technologies, not vehicles.

    JOHN
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,173
    True, they have SUV hybrids in the testing stages. The only hybrids available to the buying public so far are the smaller sedans and the hatchback Prius. You are right on my views, I am still skeptical of the long term value of hybrid propulsion, especially in the size & type vehicles I need and want. I am not unhappy that you and many others are tickled with your choice in vehicles. I am a bit concerned that you may think yourselves superior based on what you drive. Man make the cars, the car does not make the man..
  • djasonwdjasonw Posts: 624
    Certain SUVs just like certain cars hold their value quite well. The previous generation prius is doing quite well too. If you think hybrids are a fad you are sadly mistaken. A pet rock was a fad, not the hybrid technology. If anything, your conventional ICE vehicles will be a thing of the past. If someone were to look back at these posts thirty years from now, they'd laugh.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    Remember how "hydromatic" technology (now known as "automatic") was once thought of the same way... something with limited appeal and no potential to satisfy most needs.

    Today, over 90% of the vehicles in the United States use that technology. And besides being such a convenience (no shifting), it actually delivers greater torque. Few would have ever believed that could be possible. So just wait until the skeptics discover what an electric-motor can do. Another factor-of-denial is the reality that the newest version of "automatic" (a non-hybrid CVT) can be as efficient as a manual.

    JOHN
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,173
    I'm not skeptical of the technology. I am not convinced the manufacturers will being able to produce the hardware at a competitive price. I believe Batteries will be the real challenge in this whole hybrid technology. Without energy storage the hybrid falls flat. So We are back to conventional means of propulsion. The only thing that has gone wrong with my 6 year old Suburban is the battery. One week after the warranty on it expired. I realize it is lead acid and not NiMH. I think NiMH is even more of a challenge to the manufacturers. The EV1 was simpler than the HSD and it fell flat because it was too expensive to maintain. AT least that is what GM claims. The people that leased the EV1 loved them as much as the people that own the Prius. I'll be surprised if I am here in 30 years to see the all hybrid fleet.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    > Without energy storage the hybrid falls flat.

    Not true.

    The Racing-Prius has already proven that.

    JOHN
  • djasonwdjasonw Posts: 624
    Gary.. hang in there. In thirty years I'll be about your age.
  • "I believe Batteries will be the real challenge in this whole hybrid technology."

    Did you know that EV1's had NiMH battery that is 22 times more capacity than Prius and 29 times more than HCH? In another word, Prius and HCH battery capacity is only 5% and 3% respectively to EV1's battery!

    Dennis
  • bamacarbamacar Posts: 749
    Not very likely that automatics are nearly as efficient as manuals. Take a look at the latest issue of CR. All cars with the autos were slower than their manual counterparts, and all but one got worse gas mileage while doing it. A few were about 2 seconds slower to 60 and achieved worse gas mileage.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,173
    I'm sure the EV1 had a large battery to have a 75-130 mile range. I would imagine the battery issue was what cost GM the most in repairs. As hybrid technology is adapted to larger vehicles, the batteries will need to be larger. A large part of the appeal the Prius has is the super quiet ride in town driving. That also aids the economy. So to say the batteries are not necessary as John stated in another post is misleading. Without batteries you just have an ICE generating electricity to run an electric motor. Not very practical as I think you have stated in reference to the way Honda designed the HCH. I also think it is misleading to say batteries will be cheaper when the time comes to replace them. That is a totally fabricated prediction.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    > Not very likely that automatics are nearly as efficient as manuals.

    That is *NOT* what I said. Pay attention, please.

    Once again, my statement was about NON-HYBRID CVT vehicles.

    For example, the 2005 Ford Freestyle uses a Cone & Belt CVT, just like the kind HCH has. The reason for this is to improve efficiency.

    JOHN
  • bamacarbamacar Posts: 749
    Please read again and clearly understand my post this time. I said not very likely that "automatics" match the manuals.

    1. Very few cars on the road have a CVT choice so it is a non-issue for 99% of the American buyers.

    2. CVTs are more efficient than other automatics. Compared to manuals, many CVTs match the Fuel Econonomy, but are slower in acceleration thus not as efficient. It is easy to make an automatic car get the same fuel economy as long as you make it slow enough (gearing).

    3. Most of the CVT vehicles have been unpopular and in Saturn's case unreliable. With all the Automatic transmission recalls lately, it would seem logical that a number of the "90%" would see some of the advantages of a manual transmission choice. Then again when people are doing everything but driving (talking on the phone, playing with electronic gizmos, and listening to Nav systems), getting actually involved in the driving process is probably not an option.
  • moparbadmoparbad Posts: 3,842
    Diesels have a track record of high retained value and high resale value compared to similar gas models for at least the last 10 years.

    Someone thinks hybrids will have poor resale value.
    http://www.popsci.com/popsci/auto/article/0,12543,690590,00.html
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    > Someone thinks hybrids will have poor resale value

    Fortunately, reality is much more kind.

    At times, Prius has held all-time records for highest resale value *EVER*. Some slightly used models (5,000 or so miles), have actually sold *ABOVE* the sticker-price of when it was new.

    When gas here (US) climbs to above $2.50 and stays there, it's all over. The resale values for traditional gas vehicles will plummet and used hybrids will be a rare find.

    JOHN
  • bamacarbamacar Posts: 749
    Nothing new here. When a car is hot the resale values are very high. Same thing happened the first year for the PT Cruiser. When the hot item cools off after a couple of years, used car values will plummet even faster given all previous data. If gasoline stays at $2.00 or less over the next couple of years, hybrids may plummet even faster than expected.

    Any item with fast changing technology loses its value and buyer interest faster.
  • sebring95sebring95 Posts: 3,233
    Price a 2004 Passat TDI Wagon with 7501 miles in the state of California. Same story, new vehicle. Lets talk about what they're worth in three, four, five years with 75k, 100k, 125k miles. I can get over 60% of what I paid for my TDI 5 years, 90k miles ago. Wait and see is all we can do with the hybrids at this point.

    I filled my gas guzzler SUV up for $1.69 last weekend. If anything plummets at $2.50/gallon I'd be surprised. I don't see even the SUV's plummeting until $3 or more/gallon and certainly not fuel efficient gasser cars. If anything, they'll increase in proportion to the decrease in SUV/Truck value. Resale prices for full-size SUV's were about dead even for June compared to the prior year so they weren't even plummeting when fuel was very high. New sales were down however, but that's hard to compare given the economy. The market's not as volatile as some folks believe.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,173
    I think gas has to go over $3 per gallon to make any real difference in our car buying & driving habits. A couple weeks ago ebay had two Touareg V10 diesels that were past MSRP in the bidding. It all has to do with supply and demand. When the automaker builds enough to saturate the market the prices will come down. I think the Japanese for the most part have done a good job at keeping the inventory below demand. Then they don't have to sell at a discount. How does that affect the work force. Do they lay off during slow car sales periods? Maybe the domestics are bound by contracts to keep people working. That can have an impact on how many cars are in the inventory during slow sales periods.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,173
    I think the resale of the Prius that has less than 50k miles will remain strong. There is a 2001 on ebay right now that has 75k miles and the dealer has not gotten a starting bid after 6 days. No warranty and the risk is too high. A 2003 Prius with 26k is sitting at $9200 with 2 days to go. A 2004 with 16k miles is at $11k with no reserve. A new package # 7 is at $23k. Most of the Prius that are listed on ebay are from dealers. Which tells me they are having a hard time unloading them off the lots. 20 Prius are listed on ebay as of this moment, 8 have no bids. Maybe a good buy for someone looking.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    > If gasoline stays at $2.00 or less over the next couple of years, hybrids may plummet even faster than expected. Any item with fast changing technology loses its value and buyer interest faster.

    Placing all the new technologies into a single category is extraordinarily misleading. Avoid using the label of "hybrid" to identify all the designs if you want to keep discussions constructive.

    To clarify, there are 5 system designs currently available. You'll find them in: Silverado-Hybrid, Insight, Civic-Hybrid, Escape-Hybrid, and Prius. All use different "hybrid" technology. Each has distinct advantages over the other. None offer the same efficiency & emissions.

    The source of confusion is each design has been placed into a different size & type of vehicle. So people often think they work the same and it is just the vehicle itself that makes them different. That couldn't be further from the truth. Unfortunately, it will take years for people to learn the actual differences. I wish there was a way of rapidly educating about the various designs. All too often, discussions come to the wrong conclusion due to misunderstanding of how a particular hybrid actually works. Bummer.

    JOHN
  • falcononefalconone Posts: 1,726
    It appears that hybrids are doing MUCH better than anything on the market right now. Even with gas LESS than $2.00 the hybrids (mainly the Prius) sales were strong. Now with average prices way below $2.00 demand has NO waned. Just have a look at auto trader and ebay. Though I am still on the fence about what to do for my next car, I am still debating a Prius in my future. If more diesels are available (not a VW fan), I'd like that too.
  • stevedebistevedebi LAPosts: 3,863
    "Price a 2004 Passat TDI Wagon with 7501 miles in the state of California."

    If you are buying a used one, I wonder how it got to California? In any case, a used one would be pretty valuable, since new Diesel Passat's cannot be sold here. This makes it a scarce item.
  • stevedebistevedebi LAPosts: 3,863
    "t appears that hybrids are doing MUCH better than anything on the market right now. Even with gas LESS than $2.00 the hybrids (mainly the Prius) sales were strong. Now with average prices way below $2.00 demand has NO waned. Just have a look at auto trader and ebay."

    It took a couple of years for the PT Cruiser fad to die. The new Prius is the latest thing at the moment, and limited supply has driven up the price. Once more hybrids arrive and / or diesels take off with the low sulfur fuel arrival in 2007, and with Toyota upping production, the Prius will probably sell more normally, and at MSRP or less.

    Current resale of a new car (and all 2004 Prius are "new", that is less than a year old) has nothing to do with the value in 3 or more years, which is the question mark - and the point of this forum.
  • falcononefalconone Posts: 1,726
    I wonder why the original Prius is fetching crazy prices? That's over 3 yrs old isn't it? I suppose the PT cruiser got to where it is because they make hundreds of thousands of them a year. Not so for the Prius. I suppose five years will be a good benchmark. I just can't believe people are paying list price for a car with over 10k miles. Nuts!!!
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    >I wonder why the original Prius is fetching crazy prices?

    First, you actually mean CLASSIC not ORIGINAL.

    CLASSIC = 2001, 2002, 2003

    ORIGINAL = 1998, 1999, 2000

    There are some rather significant differences between the two.

     
    That CLASSIC design is more capable of a system than IMA. And people are starting to discover that, so they are willing to snatch up a used one at the premium price.

    And all along, I've been quoting the research material that shows data revealing that the battery-pack is capable of delivering full-capacity until somewhere between 150,000 and 200,000 miles. After that, you take a MPG hit since capacity is reduced. That's it! Acceleration isn't even affected, because there's more than enough capacity still remaining for that. Anywho, Toyota is now using a 180,000 mile quote whenever people ask about battery-pack expectations. So it is becoming evident that the system is performing as designed. That reality is helping to keep the resale values high.

    JOHN
  • falcononefalconone Posts: 1,726
    Thanks for the clarity John. It is amazing how there's always a few folks who want something "new" to fail miserably. People try to read between the lines, when in actuality there is nothing really there. I really hope to be a part of the hybrid family soon. I'm sold, but not in today's tight supply market. I do think current list prices are fair though.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    It's going to get pretty fun a few years from now. I have a bunch of friends that own classic Prius. Their miles will slowly build up. At that point, we'll be able to squash the misconceptions just by the overwhelming volume of data alone. There will be so much that statistics won't even be necessary anymore.

    It's not a whole lot different from other "profound" new technologies. Like when some questioned how well front-wheel drive would actually perform in real-world conditions. Obviously, we've progressed beyond that.

    The same goes for airbags. They clearly have proven their worth as the years have rolled by.

    JOHN
«13456721
This discussion has been closed.