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Paying more than MSRP for (new) Hybrids, Depreciation/Value of used Hybrids

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  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,018
    that's the reason Toyota will eventually rule the world in marketshare in OUR lifetime.

    If you are correct it is a shame. Monopolies are never good for the consumer. Another good reason to not buy a Toyota.
  • falcononefalconone Posts: 1,726
    I don't refer to them as a monopoly. I mean they will have the greatest market share. Why? Because they make the best product out there.
  • otis1otis1 Posts: 142
    What do you folks think the effect of the tax credit will have on depreciation of hybrids? I'm wondering if it will have a similar effect as rebates do to used car values. For the sake of arguement, let's say the HH qualifies for a $3000 credit. 6-18 months from now, who's going to buy a used 2006 HH for $3000 off whatever the selling price is for a new car? the seller would have to drop the price even more (barring the possiblity of a sudden shortage of new supply) WIll the new tax law make hybrid resale values drop like GM rebates do?
  • molokaimolokai Posts: 313
    I don't think it will have any effect at all. I actually think the days of hybrids holding their value are coming to an end. As supply has caught up with demand, people won't be able to flip hybrids like they do real estate. But... since gas prices keep going up, there may be a surge in demand for hybrids that supply can't meet. It will be interesting to see. I really don't care as I am going for a record on my Prius. Normally I only keep cars for a few years and get tired of them. I am hoping to keep this one for at least ten years.
  • mirthmirth Posts: 1,212
    Plus, the tax credit is only for the first 60,000 vehicles per company, so, for Toyota at least, it won't be a fleet-wide "rebate".
  • otis1otis1 Posts: 142
    I interpret that 60,000 limit a little differently. Once a manufacturer sells 60,000 hybrids, then the FOLLOWING quarter, the tax credit is phased out. Lets say in Jan-Mar, toyota sells 60,000+ hybrids, then Q2 and Q3 gets 50% of the credit because this is now considered the "phase out" period. If toyota sells 59,999 hybrids in Q1, then the phase out doesn't begin until Q3. There's still some funny language I don't get, particularly when they talk about manufacturing dates. I don't know if the leftover 05's count towards this 60,000 quota (ref p1417-1418). I sure hope Turbotax can figure this out for me.
  • stevedebistevedebi LAPosts: 3,796
    "Once a manufacturer sells 60,000 hybrids, then the FOLLOWING quarter, the tax credit is phased out. "

    My reading is that the credit goes on for one full quarter after the 60K, then 2 quarters at 50%, 2 quarters at 25%, thereafter no credit.
  • molokaimolokai Posts: 313
    I wonder how the IRS will keep track of all the deductions (credits) people are claiming. I would imagine the manufacturer will have to give you some type of certificate/form for qualification purposes.
  • otis1otis1 Posts: 142
    My reading is that the credit goes on for one full quarter after the 60K, then 2 quarters at 50%, 2 quarters at 25%, thereafter no credit.

    ooh, I think you're right. I hate lawyer speak. It reminds me of the days I had to read patents.
  • markdelmarkdel Posts: 56
    Hi,
    I'm confused, is this the Honda forum or the Toyota forum???? :confuse:
  • markdelmarkdel Posts: 56
    Hi Kirstie,
    Is this a Honda forum??? You are one of the moderators, why don't you direct all of the Toyota people to their forum???

    Mark
  • Mark (markdel),

    This particullar forum is hybrid generic, it is neither Honda nor Toyota. If you look at the forum title it will indicate what the vehicles should be and what topics should be covered: The name of this forum is "Paying more than MSRP for (new) Hybrids, Depreciation/Value of used Hybrids". It might of comeup in your list of either Toyota or Honda hybrids because is actually covers either or both plus other hybrids.

    Cheer,

    MidCow
  • PF_FlyerPF_Flyer Pennsylvania Furnace, PAPosts: 5,890
    No directing really needed as this is a general discussion about more than MSRP for hybrids, regardless of brand. As always with these more general topics, they'll sometimes focus on one particualr vehicle for a while, giving the appearance that it's about that make or model.

    If you want to get into REAL detail about a particular make or model, just use the search tools in the left sidebar to track down those discussions.

    MODERATOR
    Need help navigating? pf_flyer@edmunds.com - or send a private message by clicking on my name.
    Share your vehicle reviews

  • markdelmarkdel Posts: 56
    You are absolutely correct, my appologies, I just did not read the title correctly. I had used the filter (I thought) to cul out HCH forums only, and having done that just did not take the time to read the title of the forum. I will take much greater care in the future.
    That being said, I went back and found the posts very interesting.

    Thanks,
    MarkDel :D
  • tdohtdoh Posts: 298
    I read that there was a report somewhere on Edmunds where someone did a cost analysis on how much it would cost to own/operate certain hybrid models vs. its comparable non-hybrid version (or close to it--e.g., Accord hybrid vs. Accord non-hybrid), when purchased new; bottom line was that, over five years of ownership/operation/maintenance (less the estimated hybrid tax credit, but not including depreciation), a hybrid still costs more to own/operate than its non-hybrid cousin. However, if kept for a longer period of time, combined with slower depreciating--a hybrid would be cheaper to own over the long haul. In any case, hybrid owners would need to keep their hybrids for quite some time before realizing any actual savings over owning a similar non-hybrid version. Sure, a hybrid would be cheaper to own/operate/maintain than a gas-guzzling SUV...but to argue that it's cheaper to own a hybrid, period--well, the Edmunds report apparently concludes otherwise.

    Sure, the hybrid tax credit is coming next year but I wouldn't be surprised if dealers start to mark up their hybrids again in anticipation of the onrush of potential hybrid buyers looking to take advantage of the tax credit--which BTW is better than the hybrid tax deduction for the majority of folks not subject to the AMT since the tax credit reduces taxes dollar for dollar, whereas the tax deduction reduces income before taxes.
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    It was a BCAA study:

    "The BCAA study did come up with a comparison that showed the Honda Accord Hybrid would be a lot less expensive ($3,305) over five years, but only if the hybrid delivered the promised fuel economy levels"

    Here is a link of the study story:

    http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/June2005/07/c8547.html
  • zodiac2004zodiac2004 Posts: 471
    larsb,

    This article is interesting, but extremely irrelevant in figuring out costs of operating a hybrid to its non-hybrid equivalent. The Accord V6 is financed at 7.25% and the HAH at 4.25%.

    Enough said.

    Also the $2000 PST credit is for British Columbia only. And this chart doesn't feature resale, which as we all know is pretty strong for the non-hybrid and a big question-mark for the HAH, when it's racked up miles and out of warranty.
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    Um, no, "not enough said." The study is not "irrelevant" if you live in BC and get the 4.25% financing through the program they are talking about, now is it? :D

    And that resale thing is OF COURSE an estimate; but I can show you data after data which shows that Priuses and HCHes are holding their own very well compared to their non-hybrid counterparts.

    And remember: In the LONG history of the US car market, NO CAR at the top of a model line (EX versus LX versus DX for example) has EVER lost value more than a lower model line car in the same family. Since the HCH and the HAH are the "top of the line" for their model families, there is no reason to think they will buck that trend.

    For example, using Edmunds.com TMV today:

    2003 Honda Civic EX, auto tranny and front airbags, 50,000 miles:
    Certified Used Car price: $15,813

    2003 Honda Civic Hybrid, CVT tranny and front airbags, 50,000 miles:
    Certified Used Car price: $18,807

    That seems to indicate that the Hybrid is holding it's value quite well, and that is of course the OLDEST HCH available.

    Methinks all these "resale value decline because of battery" people are not hitting a home run on that uneducated guess..... ;)
  • stevedebistevedebi LAPosts: 3,796
    "
    2003 Honda Civic EX, auto tranny and front airbags, 50,000 miles:
    Certified Used Car price: $15,813

    2003 Honda Civic Hybrid, CVT tranny and front airbags, 50,000 miles:
    Certified Used Car price: $18,807

    That seems to indicate that the Hybrid is holding it's value quite well, and that is of course the OLDEST HCH available.

    Methinks all these "resale value decline because of battery" people are not hitting a home run on that uneducated guess..... "

    The HCH was about 3K more expensive than the EX in 2003, so that is about right.

    Two years is not enough time to tell if the battery issue will be important. Any buyer would realize that the batteries are still OK at this point. Try it at 8 years...
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    OK, how about 5 years?

    2001 Toyota Prius (loaded) 70,000 miles:
    Dealer retail: $18,095

    2001 Toyota Corolla (loaded) 70,000 miles:
    Dealer retail: $11,225

    2001 Toyota Camry 4-cylinder XLE (loaded) 70,000 miles:
    Dealer retail: $13,213

    Seems like that even after 5 years the Prius is holding it's value better than comparable gas cars.....

    *pause....ponder*

    (HHMMMM say the battery naysayers )
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,018
    The study is not "irrelevant" if you live in BC and get the 4.25% financing

    I don't think anyone would pay much more than that for financing in this market anyway. As far as the HAH in BC. What a waste of gas. People there are looking for some serious KM for their Loonie. I just ran $86 worth of gas through a Camry on Vancouver Island. There was no place that you could drive over 90 KMH (56 MPH). Anything more than a 4 cylinder is a total waste of fuel. Which was $1.089 per liter on the last fill up. That works out to $3.40 US per gallon. And they have all the oil they need and sell us a bunch as well. One of the best selling cars in Victoria is the Smart fortwo that gets 72 MPG on the much cheaper diesel $3.02 US per gallon. We all need more 50 + MPG cars.

    Hybrid resale is still an unknown. The hybrids over 100k miles are not bringing BB prices. That indicates people are worried about the batteries.
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    quote gagrice-"Hybrid resale is still an unknown. The hybrids over 100k miles are not bringing BB prices. That indicates people are worried about the batteries."-end quote

    Maybe in YOUR MIND it's still an unknown. With 2001 Priuses with 70,000 miles on them still getting $18K at the dealers, that's pretty much a "KNOWN" if you ask me.

    No car with 100,000 miles is getting BB. That's what happens when cars reach the "mythical" 100K plateau - the resales value falls off the chart. That is not unique to Hybrids one iota.
  • falcononefalconone Posts: 1,726
    Absolutely correct. I don't think there are too many with that type of mileage out there. To speculate on the unknown is quite foolish.
  • Word gets out that the Prius is reliable. The chatter in the car mags is solid and the awards must mean something, wouldn't you think? I've seen 4 Prius' sell for good, no, make that great $$$$$. No surprize to me. What with gas kicking 3 bucks in the tank. Why do people think that a hybrid would be questionable for resale B.B. is hard to fathum to me . The time is right for the hybrids to be in the spotlight and deliver what these times demand. :)
    Railroadjames (hybrids R NOW)
  • bartalk3bartalk3 Posts: 692
    Brock Yates, big time editor of Car and Driver has a column this month (Sept. issue) calling attention to some of the drawbacks of Hybrids. Worth reading. What kind of resale value will a hybrid have in 6-7 years, shortly before its batteries need to be changed? Will hybrid batteries lose power after a few years, as most batteries do? Where will these batteries be disposed of, a huge environmental problem? Etc.
  • falcononefalconone Posts: 1,726
    I read that column as I am a subscriber He definitely has a lot in common with some old farts that frequent the Edmunds forums. He doesn't do his homework. Do you know that Toyota has a facility in place specifically for the recycling of hybrid batteries? Hmmm ...didn't think you did your homework either. Toyota also pays each dealer a $200 bounty for any hybrid traction battery. Another thing people do not know is that the traction battery is computer controlled to allow its life cycle to achieve maximum potential. Fully charging and discharging batteries are what really kills batteries early. Not so with the Prius/RH traction batteries.
  • zodiac2004zodiac2004 Posts: 471
    Um, no, "not enough said." The study is not "irrelevant" if you live in BC and get the 4.25% financing through the program they are talking about, now is it?

    Neither you nor I live in BC. Less than 3% of people in USA/Canada live in BC. So to pretend as if the TCO of a HAH is lower than an Accord EX, and base this on a maximum of 3% of people is beyond ridiculous. Once again, "Enough said" !!

    And that resale thing is OF COURSE an estimate; but I can show you data after data which shows that Priuses and HCHes are holding their own very well compared to their non-hybrid counterparts

    Where is the data for hybrids with 100/120K miles on them. I'm waiting. And remember, asking prices and just that. Asking prices. Nobody in their right minds would pay $15800 for 3 y/o Civic, TMV or no TMV.

    And remember: In the LONG history of the US car market, NO CAR at the top of a model line (EX versus LX versus DX for example) has EVER lost value more than a lower model line car in the same family. Since the HCH and the HAH are the "top of the line" for their model families, there is no reason to think they will buck that trend.

    And what do you base this statement on. Are you going to say "TMV" again. And do you mean lost value as a percent, or in actual dollars? You want examples. Here is a few.
    Early 90's BMW 7-series compared to same year 5-series or even 3-series.
    Early 90's Infiniti Q compared to M/I
    96 E-class MB vs S-class.
    First year VW Phaeton vs same year high-end Passat
    And I'm quite sure in a year or 2, the 1st year of the bangled 5-series will be worth less than the last model year E39's
    And a 92 LS400 is worth probably a little more than a 92 ES, but it's original price was 70% higher. This is despite the fact the LS400 is one of the most reliable cars EVER.

    You can see a pattern here. Other things being equal, high end cars with a lot of gadgetry lose more value both as a percent and actual dollars than mainstream cars. There is only one reason for this. "More high-priced items to fix when they eventually break". A hybrid fits this bill perfectly.

    You say there is no reason to buck that imaginary trend. Here's one. One of them is a "HYBRID".
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    Preface and Disclaimer: Just so you and the moderators know, I put some statements BOLD and CAPS below. That is merely to emphasize them, not to be considered "yelling" like some people do. I do not attempt to YELL online. My bold and caps are merely to put sufficient STRESS on the capped words so that my point is made better. Not Yelling !!! :D

    quote Zodiac2004-"And what do you base this statement on. Are you going to say "TMV" again. And do you mean lost value as a percent, or in actual dollars? You want examples. Here is a few. Early 90's BMW 7-series compared to same year 5-series or even 3-series. Early 90's Infiniti Q compared to M/I 96 E-class MB vs S-class. First year VW Phaeton vs same year high-end Passat And I'm quite sure in a year or 2, the 1st year of the bangled 5-series will be worth less than the last model year E39's And a 92 LS400 is worth probably a little more than a 92 ES, but it's original price was 70% higher. This is despite the fact the LS400 is one of the most reliable cars EVER."-end quote

    You misunderstood me. I said and meant "CARS IN THE SAME MODEL LINE WHICH ARE THE SAME CAR just BADGED DIFFERENT" because of features. Meaning a Camry DX and a Camry LE and a Camry XLE or a Civic DX and a Civic LX and a Civic EX and THEN comes the Civic Hybrid - top of the line in THAT model....No Camry LE has ever surpassed a Camry XLE in resale value. And in the same way, no Civic EX is ever going to surpass the Civic Hybrid in resale value. That's what I meant, and its' absolutely true.

    So, yes, my statement remains true. And remember: In the LONG history of the US car market, NO CAR at the top of a model line (EX versus LX versus DX for example) has EVER lost value more than a lower model line car in the same family. Since the HCH and the HAH are the "top of the line" for their model families, there is no reason to think they will buck that trend.

    quote Zodiac2004-"Where is the data for hybrids with 100/120K miles on them. I'm waiting. And remember, asking prices and just that. Asking prices. Nobody in their right minds would pay $15800 for 3 y/o Civic, TMV or no TMV."-end quote

    ALL Cars which reach 100K miles drop off the chart when it comes to resale value - that's a mythical drop point. Hybrids will not drop more or less than any other car. And do you really understand what Edmunds TMV really is? It comes from data from car dealers. It's REAL numbers, not an estimate. Based on ACTUALLY SOLD CAR SALES transactions. So I guess there are a lot of people "not in their right mind" out there buying these high quality used Hybrids.

    :D
  • zodiac2004zodiac2004 Posts: 471
    So, yes, my statement remains true. And remember: In the LONG history of the US car market, NO CAR at the top of a model line (EX versus LX versus DX for example) has EVER lost value more than a lower model line car in the same family. Since the HCH and the HAH are the "top of the line" for their model families, there is no reason to think they will buck that trend.

    Answer my question. As a percent or actual dollars ?

    quote Zodiac2004-"Where is the data for hybrids with 100/120K miles on them. I'm waiting. And remember, asking prices and just that. Asking prices. Nobody in their right minds would pay $15800 for 3 y/o Civic, TMV or no TMV."-end quote

    ALL Cars which reach 100K miles drop off the chart when it comes to resale value - that's a mythical drop point. Hybrids will not drop more or less than any other car. And do you really understand what Edmunds TMV really is? It comes from data from car dealers. It's REAL numbers, not an estimate. Based on ACTUALLY SOLD CAR SALES transactions. So I guess there are a lot of people "not in their right mind" out there buying these high quality used Hybrids


    According to you,
    03 Civic EX with 50000 miles -> $15800
    What was it when new -~ 18500 ??
    And you say all cars drop off the chart when they hit 100K miles. So, what would you say the 03 Civic is worth in 2008 with 100K miles. 2K. Or 4K.

    Now extend this example to the HCH.

    Fill in the blanks here and you'll see my various points, which are
    1. TMV does not cut checks for used cars. Used car buyers do.
    2. Used cars with a proven technology command a premium in the market. Questionable technology commands the opposite.
    3. Hybrids are NOT proven technology. The fact that they have been around for 10 years doesn't mean much especially since hybrid technology hasn't been stable in those 10 years.
    4. The only long-term proven technology for better mileage than regular gasoline cars are diesel cars - and VW diesels have proved that with their diesel cars commanding a significant premium over their gasoline counterparts despite the fact they are made by VW.
    5. What happens to your beloved HCH's resale if hybrid technology takes a couple of big leaps forward.
    6. While I understand people need to buy the current hybrids just so the manufacturers can invest in making better hybrids, you should understand what those buyers are doing. They are in fact paying the price for the future buyers. If people didn't buy the first cars Honda/Toyota/any car manufacturer made, they wouldn't be around making cars today.
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    quote zodiac2004-"Answer my question. As a percent or actual dollars ?"-end quote

    Actual dollars. The percent has probably not fluctuated much either.

    quote zodiac2004-"And you say all cars drop off the chart when they hit 100K miles. So, what would you say the 03 Civic is worth in 2008 with 100K miles. 2K. Or 4K."-end quote

    Well, lets use actual numbers:

    2000 Civic EX loaded, 70000 miles = TMV $11,266
    2000 Civic EX loaded, 105000 miles = TMV $9,772

    Not exactly off the chart, is it? But the point is, and every car dealer and anyone in the used car business can verify that the 100K dropoff really exists - it's not something I made up...

    You need to get off the TMV disrespect thing. It's an actual number based on reported actual sales at actual dealers. There is nothing on the web more accurate than Edmunds TMV.

    quote zodiac2004-"3. Hybrids are NOT proven technology. The fact that they have been around for 10 years doesn't mean much especially since hybrid technology hasn't been stable in those 10 years."-end quote

    That is absolutely false. Hybrid technology has been incredibly stable and proven over multiple millions of real road miles. I have no idea where you might get that asinine and completely untrue opinion.

    quote zodiac2004-"5. What happens to your beloved HCH's resale if hybrid technology takes a couple of big leaps forward. ."-end quote

    Even if they make a 2009 Civic that gets 100 MPG, my 2004 is still superior to all the 2004 4 door cars on the road except the Prius in the MPG game. So your "two big leaps forward" will have no effect at all on a 2004 car.
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