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Paying more than MSRP for (new) Hybrids, Depreciation/Value of used Hybrids

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  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 28,690
    I think gas has to go over $3 per gallon to make any real difference in our car buying & driving habits. A couple weeks ago ebay had two Touareg V10 diesels that were past MSRP in the bidding. It all has to do with supply and demand. When the automaker builds enough to saturate the market the prices will come down. I think the Japanese for the most part have done a good job at keeping the inventory below demand. Then they don't have to sell at a discount. How does that affect the work force. Do they lay off during slow car sales periods? Maybe the domestics are bound by contracts to keep people working. That can have an impact on how many cars are in the inventory during slow sales periods.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 28,690
    I think the resale of the Prius that has less than 50k miles will remain strong. There is a 2001 on ebay right now that has 75k miles and the dealer has not gotten a starting bid after 6 days. No warranty and the risk is too high. A 2003 Prius with 26k is sitting at $9200 with 2 days to go. A 2004 with 16k miles is at $11k with no reserve. A new package # 7 is at $23k. Most of the Prius that are listed on ebay are from dealers. Which tells me they are having a hard time unloading them off the lots. 20 Prius are listed on ebay as of this moment, 8 have no bids. Maybe a good buy for someone looking.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    > If gasoline stays at $2.00 or less over the next couple of years, hybrids may plummet even faster than expected. Any item with fast changing technology loses its value and buyer interest faster.

    Placing all the new technologies into a single category is extraordinarily misleading. Avoid using the label of "hybrid" to identify all the designs if you want to keep discussions constructive.

    To clarify, there are 5 system designs currently available. You'll find them in: Silverado-Hybrid, Insight, Civic-Hybrid, Escape-Hybrid, and Prius. All use different "hybrid" technology. Each has distinct advantages over the other. None offer the same efficiency & emissions.

    The source of confusion is each design has been placed into a different size & type of vehicle. So people often think they work the same and it is just the vehicle itself that makes them different. That couldn't be further from the truth. Unfortunately, it will take years for people to learn the actual differences. I wish there was a way of rapidly educating about the various designs. All too often, discussions come to the wrong conclusion due to misunderstanding of how a particular hybrid actually works. Bummer.

    JOHN
  • falcononefalconone Posts: 1,726
    It appears that hybrids are doing MUCH better than anything on the market right now. Even with gas LESS than $2.00 the hybrids (mainly the Prius) sales were strong. Now with average prices way below $2.00 demand has NO waned. Just have a look at auto trader and ebay. Though I am still on the fence about what to do for my next car, I am still debating a Prius in my future. If more diesels are available (not a VW fan), I'd like that too.
  • stevedebistevedebi LAPosts: 3,719
    "Price a 2004 Passat TDI Wagon with 7501 miles in the state of California."

    If you are buying a used one, I wonder how it got to California? In any case, a used one would be pretty valuable, since new Diesel Passat's cannot be sold here. This makes it a scarce item.
  • stevedebistevedebi LAPosts: 3,719
    "t appears that hybrids are doing MUCH better than anything on the market right now. Even with gas LESS than $2.00 the hybrids (mainly the Prius) sales were strong. Now with average prices way below $2.00 demand has NO waned. Just have a look at auto trader and ebay."

    It took a couple of years for the PT Cruiser fad to die. The new Prius is the latest thing at the moment, and limited supply has driven up the price. Once more hybrids arrive and / or diesels take off with the low sulfur fuel arrival in 2007, and with Toyota upping production, the Prius will probably sell more normally, and at MSRP or less.

    Current resale of a new car (and all 2004 Prius are "new", that is less than a year old) has nothing to do with the value in 3 or more years, which is the question mark - and the point of this forum.
  • falcononefalconone Posts: 1,726
    I wonder why the original Prius is fetching crazy prices? That's over 3 yrs old isn't it? I suppose the PT cruiser got to where it is because they make hundreds of thousands of them a year. Not so for the Prius. I suppose five years will be a good benchmark. I just can't believe people are paying list price for a car with over 10k miles. Nuts!!!
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    >I wonder why the original Prius is fetching crazy prices?

    First, you actually mean CLASSIC not ORIGINAL.

    CLASSIC = 2001, 2002, 2003

    ORIGINAL = 1998, 1999, 2000

    There are some rather significant differences between the two.

     
    That CLASSIC design is more capable of a system than IMA. And people are starting to discover that, so they are willing to snatch up a used one at the premium price.

    And all along, I've been quoting the research material that shows data revealing that the battery-pack is capable of delivering full-capacity until somewhere between 150,000 and 200,000 miles. After that, you take a MPG hit since capacity is reduced. That's it! Acceleration isn't even affected, because there's more than enough capacity still remaining for that. Anywho, Toyota is now using a 180,000 mile quote whenever people ask about battery-pack expectations. So it is becoming evident that the system is performing as designed. That reality is helping to keep the resale values high.

    JOHN
  • falcononefalconone Posts: 1,726
    Thanks for the clarity John. It is amazing how there's always a few folks who want something "new" to fail miserably. People try to read between the lines, when in actuality there is nothing really there. I really hope to be a part of the hybrid family soon. I'm sold, but not in today's tight supply market. I do think current list prices are fair though.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    It's going to get pretty fun a few years from now. I have a bunch of friends that own classic Prius. Their miles will slowly build up. At that point, we'll be able to squash the misconceptions just by the overwhelming volume of data alone. There will be so much that statistics won't even be necessary anymore.

    It's not a whole lot different from other "profound" new technologies. Like when some questioned how well front-wheel drive would actually perform in real-world conditions. Obviously, we've progressed beyond that.

    The same goes for airbags. They clearly have proven their worth as the years have rolled by.

    JOHN
  • Just tonight, I was talking to a lady who purchased a 2001 Prius with 87k miles for $10k. She is totally satisfied, and thinks the handling is great. Her other car is a Harley. She admits to being somewhat of a greenie, but was seriously stoked by the performance (passing on the highway, for example). Just another data point...

    jprice
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 28,690
    The same goes for airbags. They clearly have proven their worth as the years have rolled by.

    How can you say that? They have cost us billions of dollars to put in cars. I do not know a single person that has been saved by them. I do know of one child that was killed by an airbag. They are a total waste of money in my opinion. Of course NHTSA is going to say they save lives after they forced them on us.
  • Relying on one's personal experience is not always the best method of judging the worth of a safety feature.

    I don't know a single person who has been saved by seat belts, infant car seats, firefighters, or vaccines. But do people generally want to live without these? Because statistics show they save lives.

    Airbags are gaining the same popularity as a factor in resale as seat belts used to - a lot of folks ask about air bags when looking at a used vehicle purchase.

    kirstie_h
    Roving Host & Future Vehicles Host

    Need help navigating? kirstie_h@edmunds.com - or send a private message by clicking on my name.

  • stevedebistevedebi LAPosts: 3,719
    "Airbags are gaining the same popularity as a factor in resale as seat belts used to - a lot of folks ask about air bags when looking at a used vehicle purchase."

    I think that airbags bring up an interesting point about new technology, in that it was over 10 years after they were introduced that the first multi-stage airbags were introduced. Now cars have sensors to make sure they don't deploy dangerously.

    Like the Hybrids, they were an evolutionary process.
  • falcononefalconone Posts: 1,726
    One of the most obtuse statements I've ever read on Edmunds. Just because YOU don't know of someone not saved by an airbag means that they're useless. They've proven themselves! Now with the smart air bags children no longer have a risk.
  • SylviaSylvia Posts: 1,636
    we are a bit off-topic. Back to hybrid resale values.
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    What kind of proof do you think someone can show? Can I go to all the dealerships in my area and ask to see their resale invoices?

    There is NO SOURCE that I know of or have ever heard of for tracking ACTUAL RESALE prices PAID for cars. I'm sure the car industry reports that to SOMEONE SOMEWHERE, but I do not think that is public information.

    Resale values listed in Blue Book and Edmunds and all other sources are based on what? Do we even know? Are they based on "actual sales prices paid" or are they based on "retail and wholesale asking prices?" I don't think they are based on actual sale prices paid - can anyone show me I'm wrong?

    If they ARE based on "actual prices paid" for used cars, then they are completely VALID.

    If they are NOT based on "actual prices paid" then the actual prices paid obviously does not make a flip, does it?

    Can you follow that most excellent logic?
  • Resale values listed in Blue Book and Edmunds and all other sources are based on what?<snip> I don't think they are based on actual sale prices paid - can anyone show me I'm wrong?

    Erm...this is an easy one. Yes. Our TMV numbers are derived from data received from dealerships, and are directly based on actual sales prices.

    There is NO SOURCE that I know of or have ever heard of for tracking ACTUAL RESALE prices PAID for cars

    You've missed out on one of our best tools!! LOL.

    kirstie_h
    Roving Host & Future Vehicles Host

    Need help navigating? kirstie_h@edmunds.com - or send a private message by clicking on my name.

  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    OK Great - so TMV *REALLY IS* based on REAL WORLD PRICES PAID data. So can we agree that it is reasonable to assume that a discussion of "how well a Hybrid is holding it's value" can be based on TMV data? Are we all in agreement on that point?
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    Example:

    2002 Prius, clean condition, 59,000 miles, zip code 85034, MSRP when new was $19,995:

    Private party price: $14,718 = 74% of orig MSRP
    Dealer price: $17,375 = 87% of origi MSRP

    Even a good negotiator who might be able to drop the dealer price by $1500 to $15,875 would mean that the 2002 Prius would have held 79% of it's original MSRP after 59,000 miles.

    Anyway you want to slice it, that is NOT INDICATIVE of a car whose "resale bubble has burst." LOL
This discussion has been closed.