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Where do sales of HEV go when gas goes $2.50-$3?

hotshot24hotshot24 Posts: 9
edited March 22 in Toyota
Where do sales of HEV go when gas goes $2.50-$3? I heard on the news and from my autos teacher that gas will reach $3 in less than a year. How many more hybrids will toyota have to produce?
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Comments

  • rfruthrfruth Posts: 630
    Sales of hybrids will increase as the price at the pump goes up but their claim to fame is low emmisions, high MPG is icing on the cake - there are a number of traditional high MPG ICE only cars out there if thats the goal.
  • xcelxcel Posts: 1,025
    Hi Rfruth:

    ___I don’t think the average car driver cares about or knows what the emission rating of the vehicle they drive or may possibly want to purchase in the future is. The reason why is you can already purchase at least 40 different std. ICE automobiles w/ PZEV ratings for just a few hundred more or no increase in price yet no one I work with even knows what “PZEV” means?

    ___Then again, just like the Prius I and II, hybrid prices keep inching up …

    http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item- =2486103511&rd=1&sspagename=STRK%3AMEWA%3AIT

    ___This was a $9,000 car not 1 year ago ;-)

    ___Good Luck

    ___Wayne R. Gerdes
  • rfruthrfruth Posts: 630
    I'm afraid your right about the average person not knowing or caring about vehicle emmisions, if 30 years ago someone had mentioned bottled water they would have thought you were crazy but fast forward to now and mention air quality, guess what ?
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    > The reason why is you can already purchase
    > at least 40 different std. ICE automobiles w/ PZEV ratings


    There are actually only 16 that offer that rating.

    See... http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/ccvl/2004sulevpzevlist.htm

    And of those 16, only 1 is available outside of California.

    JOHN
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,019
    I agree with Wayne. I work in the oil fields with people that live in 9 different States from Virginia to North Dakota to California. We were discussing pollution. I asked if they had ever heard of SULEV or PZEV. None had any idea what it was. I asked if any had driven a hybrid or seen a Prius. The same answers came out no one had any idea what a Prius is. I had driven a Prius 4 years ago but was not familiar with emission standards until I started joining the posting on the Edmund's Forum. I would be surprised if 10% of the population knows what hybrid, SULEV or PZEV stands for.
  • rfruthrfruth Posts: 630
    Not too long ago I asked a guy in the oil & gas industry about ULSD also my dad who is now retired from Gulf oil (Chevron) neither had (or have) even heard of low sulfer diesel, so what will be at the pumps here in a couple years - what goes in a hybrid ?
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,019
    I think ULSD is practically unheard of in the US. I had to research to find a station in San Diego that sells it. Unless diesel cars become popular here people will not realize the diesel is changed in 2006 when it is mandated. Only people that are into enhancing diesel performance will look for high performance fuel. Hybrid vehicles may even be less known about than low sulfur diesel.
  • xcelxcel Posts: 1,025
    Hi John:

    There are actually only 16 that offer that rating.

    ___Actually, there are 41 as I posted earlier. They can be seen at the following plus Honda and Kia themselves:

    http://www.driveclean.ca.gov/en/gv/vsearch/cleansearch_result.asp

    http://www.cleanairchoices.org/cleanairchoicevehicles2005.html

    2004 BMW 325Ci Coupe
    2004 BMW 325i Sedan
    2004 BMW 325i Sports Wagon
    2004 Daimler Chrysler Sebring Sedan
    2004 Dodge Stratus Sedan SXT
    2004 Ford Focus LX
    2004 Ford Focus SE Sedan
    2004 Ford Focus SE Wagon
    2004 Ford Focus ZTS Sedan
    2004 Ford Focus ZX3
    2004 Ford Focus ZX5
    2005 Ford Focus ZX3
    2005 Ford Focus ZX4
    2005 Ford Focus ZX5
    2005 Ford Focus ZXW
    2004 Honda Accord EX Sedan
    2004 Honda Accord LX Sedan
    2005 Honda Accord EX Sedan
    2005 Honda Accord LX Sedan
    2004 Hyundai Elantra GLS 2.0L
    2004 Kia Spectra
    2005 Kia Spectra 5
    2004 Mazda MAZDA3
    2004 Mitsubishi Galant DE and ES 2.4L
    2004 Nissan Altima 2.5, 2.5S or 2.5SL
    2005 Nissan Altima 2.5, 2.5S
    2004 Nissan Sentra 1.8
    2004 Nissan Sentra 1.8S
    2004 Subaru Legacy 2.5 GT Sedan
    2004 Subaru Legacy 2.5 GT Wagon
    2004 Subaru Legacy L Sedan/35th Anniv. Ed.
    2004 Subaru Legacy L Wagon/35th Anniv. Ed.
    2004 Subaru Legacy Outback Limited Sedan
    2004 Subaru Legacy Outback Limited Wagon
    2004 Subaru Legacy Outback Limited Wagon
    2005 Subaru Legacy 2.5 AWD Sedan
    2005 Subaru Legacy 2.5 AWD Wagon
    2004 Toyota Camry LE, SE or XLE
    2004 Volkswagen Jetta Sedan GL or GLS 2.0L
    2004 Volvo 2.4 S60 Sedan
    2004 Volvo 2.4 V70 Wagon

    + 7 CNG powered ICE’s including

    2004 Honda Civic GX
    2004 Ford E250 CNG Van
    2004 Ford E350 CNG SuperDuty Ext. Van
    2004 Ford E350 CNG SuperDuty Ext. Wagon
    2004 Ford E350 CNG SuperDuty Van
    2004 Ford E350 CNG SuperDuty Wagon
    2004 Ford E350 CNG SuperDuty Wagon

    And of those 16, only 1 is available outside of California.

    ___You can pick many of the PZEV’s listed above from any number of states including Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, and California.

    ___Wayne R. Gerdes
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,019
    It should be pointed out that these cars would be PZEV in any state if they had low sulfur clean gas. Most states still sell lousy gas. Maybe all states will set higher standards for their gas. It may be a Federal mandate as the ULSD will be in 2006. That would improve emissions from most cars already on the road.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    Separating trim levels is another way of being vague. You should have mentioned that in the first place. It was implied that you meant different vehicles, not models of the same.

    Numbers are still missing too. Please provide quantity actually sold. As far as I'm concerned, vehicles like Insight, for example, don't even count since there are so few (only 34 sold nationwide in July.) The same could apply to your PZEV claim.
      
    Prices are absent as well.

    No matter, the odds of any automaker embracing PZEV on the large scale is simply not going to happen. Many have already filed lawsuits against CARB for that very reason. Voluntarily adding cost to their vehicles at the penalty of decreasing the MPG a little bit for the sake of cleaner emissions is just plain not realistic. That's why hybrids, like Prius, are so much more appealing instead.

    JOHN
  • In CA early this year, the HCH was available for immediate delivery with a $2K discount. Once gas hit $2.50 here in May (it has since eased somewhat), it turned into list price and a 30-60 day wait. So hybrid demand was very sensitive to gas price.

    Mike
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    Crunching the numbers doesn't necessitate rocket science. It's actually pretty simple... and quite eye-opening.

    The argument that HSD provides a gain of 15 MPG for a midsize car doesn't a require much debate. That fact is fairly solid now, based on data from real-world mixed (that's everything but highway-only) driving. So... comparing the 150,000 mile difference between Prius at 50 MPG total and a comparable sized traditional vehicle averaging 35 MPG, you get 1,286 gallons.

    At $2.10 per gallon, which is likely way too low of a price over the years (roughly 8, which brings us to 2012) it will take to travel that distance, it calculates to a savings of $2,701.

    At $2.25 per gallon, a more realistic price based on the way demand continues to grow and the way supply continues to shrink, the savings grows to $2,894.

    At $2.50 per gallon, which is likely still too low (especially since it's over $4.00 per gallon already in Europe), the favor swings heavily for HSD in a midsize car, all the way to $3,215.

    Considering the fact that an HSD equipped vehicle doesn't actually require a Multi-Display (touch-screen) interface, the numbers become even more appealing. A traditional interface would lower the cost by around $500.

    And of course, no data has been presented that battery-pack replacement will *EVER* required. All the data has revealed so far is that the aging process will begin to reduce efficiency after about 150,000 miles. That's it. Acceleration power won't even suffer, since there will plenty of capacity remaining to provide short boosts of electricity. There will just be a drop in MPG. So there should not be any late-life expenses. In fact, since the PSD is always engaged and never shifts, it should outlast an automatic transmission and the clutch on a manual. Therefore, money can actually be saved compared to a traditional vehicle.

    If you really want to push the issue, take a look at the $3.00 per gallon savings. It works out to $3,858.
  • falcononefalconone Posts: 1,726
    Interesting numbers John. You mention the PSD which I find quite fascinating. Why don't all cars have that? IF (big if!!) that goes, do you think the cost of replacement will be greater than replacing/repairing an automatic transmission?
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,019
    If you really want to push the issue, take a look at the $3.00 per gallon savings. It works out to $3,858.

    That does not cover the $5k many are getting gouged by the dealers. I don't think anyone would argue that if the Prius is bought at MSRP compared to other cars that are comparably equipped selling at MSRP. the Prius is a good deal and environmentally great. I would not worry about the battery in CA where it is covered for 150,000 miles or 8 years. I'm not clear on what else is covered on that part of the warranty. If it covers all the electronics and fancy gadgetry it is probably a safe bet.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    > That does not cover the $5k many are getting gouged by the dealers.

    If demand remains that much higher than actual supply for that many years, you can kiss your argument goodbye. Hybrids being that popular is your worse fear. Of course, what's even worse is when supply does keep up with demand. You'll see them everywhere!

    The LONG-TERM look at hybrids is difficult to disagree with, it is quite favorable.

    The comment about the other "electronics" parts falls on deaf ears, since traditional vehicles are loaded with them too.

    JOHN
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    > You mention the PSD which I find quite fascinating. Why don't all cars have that?

    It's impossible to implement on a system that only has a single power source, just an engine. You need to be able to combine & vary multiple power sources for it to work.

    > IF (big if!!) that goes, do you think the cost of replacement will be greater than replacing/repairing an automatic transmission?

    How often do you hear of a differential failing or even to be replaced due to slipping? Answer: virtually never.

    The PSD is setup exactly like a differential. So the odds are very much in your favor. There's far better chance of being in an accident instead.

    Odds are the replacement costs is similar to something like replacing a head-gasket or analog-speedometer... fairly easy, but it the labor charge will be rather hefty since it takes so long.

    JOHN
  • stevedebistevedebi LAPosts: 3,797
    The Prius is rated midsize only because they built the car vertically (it is tall). The cars is small in width and in square footage in the trunk. (please read square footage, not cubic, before replying to the trunk issue).

    If it weren't a hatchback, it wouldn't even qualify as a midsize.

    This is significant because the cars to compare with the Prius are compact cars, not midsize. I suppose that john's numbers would actually be even better against midsize cars, which generally get no more than 30 MPG in real world driving, and only mid 20's in town.

    However, the issue of a savings of $3850 (john's maximum) and cost comparisons over the lifetime of the car depend upon the price actually paid for the smaller car. To achieve 35 MPG, the cars are considerably cheaper up front (these numbers have been discussed ad nauseum in these forums). Hence, a compact car will save a lot more money up front than a midsize car.
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    Shallow trunks have always been a problem. Gaining depth in place of length is priceless for some. There are lots of tall objects that simply don't fit in a traditional trunk.

    Legroom wasn't mentioned, why? That's an important aspect of size that has no relation to the length or width of the vehicle.

    Regardless, we need actual numbers to validate any claim. We need to be specific no matter what the outcome. Show me the data.

    JOHN
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,019
    The comment about the other "electronics" parts falls on deaf ears, since traditional vehicles are loaded with them too.

    I have learned one thing on this forum much of what is said falls on deaf ears. As many times in the past, you are wrong again. If you can remember the Jaguar when it was still a British car. It lost a lot of market share, and the MAIN reason was it's poor electronics and electrical in general. Consequently it was sold to Ford at a giveaway price. Just about everything on the Prius is electrical and electronic controlled. If it starts having problems as most of IT'S problems so far have been. You can be in for a horrendous repair bill, if it is not included in the 8 year warranty. So my question which you were unable to answer is still on the table. What is included in the 8 year 150k mile warranty?
  • xcelxcel Posts: 1,025
    Hi Gagrice:

    ___Neither the Prius II or Focus PZEV&#146;s attain California PZEV like emissions (< 1.0 #&#146;s of smog forming emissions/15,000 miles) when using most states garbage high sulfur fuel. 2006 should take care of that for all. They are still ok at 2.8 &#150; 4.1 #&#146;s/15,000 miles but just not as clean is all :-(

    ___Good Luck

    ___Wayne R. Gerdes
  • xcelxcel Posts: 1,025
    Hi John:

    ___As usual, facts are posted by the most credible of sources and you come up with &#147;vague&#148;.

    The link: http://www.driveclean.ca.gov/en/gv/vsearch/cleansearch_result.asp

    Quote: A Zero & Near-Zero emissions vehicle guide brought to you by the California&#146;s Air Resources board.

    ___The ones missing are the KIA Spectra&#146;s and the 05&#146;s. Total count according to CARB gave 31 04&#146;s + the KIA&#146;s + the 05&#146;s = 41. Can you add? Do you know what CARB is?

    Numbers are still missing too. Please provide quantity actually sold.

    ___How many did sell? If you want a PZEV, you have at least 41 non-Hybrid&#146;s to choose from.

    As far as I'm concerned, vehicles like Insight, for example, don't even count since there are so few (only 34 sold nationwide in July.) The same could apply to your PZEV claim.

    ___Who mentioned the Insight? There were 41 std. ICE PZEV&#146;s posted, no Hybrid&#146;s.

    Prices are absent as well.

    ___Please post the PZEV prices from your link as you posted it. I didn&#146;t see anyone ask for it but you did so feel free: http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/ccvl/2004sulevpzevlist.htm

    No matter, the odds of any automaker embracing PZEV on the large scale is simply not going to happen. Many have already filed lawsuits against CARB for that very reason. Voluntarily adding cost to their vehicles at the penalty of decreasing the MPG a little bit for the sake of cleaner emissions is just plain not realistic. That's why hybrids, like Prius, are so much more appealing instead.

    ___Really? Honda has the HCH, and Accord. Ford has the many CNG&#146;s and Focus&#146;. GM has the largest contingent of SULEV based 05 SUV&#146;s and trucks the world has ever seen. Toyota produces the Prius II and Camry PZEV&#146;s. Along with Toyota&#146;s 2 PZEV&#146;s, they also have the award winning distinction of manufacturing 4 automobiles that have an EPA emissions score of &#147;0&#148; ! There are only 5 automobiles you can buy today that have an EPA score of &#147;0&#148; and 4 of those come from Toyota including the Lexus LX470, Toyota Land Cruiser, Toyota Sequoia 2 and 4WD&#146;s. Is Toyota suing CARB given this world class distinction?

    ___Finally, what was up with your statement: &#147;And of those 16, only 1 is available outside of California.&#148;?

    ___Wayne R. Gerdes
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    But the point has been entirely missed.

    If the automaker only offers a token quantity, you're screwed. There simply isn't a product to buy, even though it does in fact exist.

    Toyota will be delivering 80,000 Prius to the United States for the 2005 model year. They delivered 47,000 for 2004.

    How many PZEV Focus were there? Only 1,000? Maybe even less?

    JOHN
  • xcelxcel Posts: 1,025
    Hi John:

    ___Everything posted other then by you must be vague? You were wrong on the number of non-hybrid PZEV&#146;s available, you were wrong on where they were available, and now you think there were less then 1,000 Focus PZEV&#146;s sold. Where does your imagination end?

    Here is another for you:

    http://www.aiada.org/article.asp?id=19636

    By the end of this year, the air board estimates, there will be 140,000 PZEVs on California roads

    ___With maybe 15,000 Prius II PZEV&#146;s to be sold in CA (guesstimate) and possibly 4,000 PZEV HCH&#146;s (Guesstimate), how many PZEV&#146;s were non-Hybrid&#146;s? Hmmm, 140,000 &#150; 19,000 = 121,000 std. ICE PZEV&#146;s vs. 13,000 Hybrid PZEV&#146;s. I am sure with your contacts, you could find out how many Prius II&#146;s have been sold to date in California alone. Once you have that, go ahead and post it for all to see what kind of impact the Prius II is having on cleaning the air vs. the rest of those 140,000 PZEV&#146;s.

    How many PZEV Focus were there? Only 1,000? Maybe even less?

    ___I don&#146;t have a number nor do you but if you purchased a Focus ZTS, ZX3, or ZX5 in Premium or higher trims, you purchased a PZEV here in Illinois. In other words, there was probably far greater then 1,000 PZEV Focus&#146; sold in Illinois alone let alone the rest of the country.

    ___Wayne R. Gerdes
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,019
    Good article Wayne,
    I think they put their finger on the truth about some Prius owners. It is wanting to be seen as an environmentalist. If they were just interested in the environment they would buy a much more reasonably priced vehicle that is just as clean according to CARB.

    PZEVs look like any other car and cost only about $100 more than less-clean versions of the same model. And some models are considerably cheaper than hybrids. While a standard 2004 Toyota Prius costs $20,510, a Ford Focus PZEV costs only $13,370.
    "You can have bragging rights on a hybrid because it is plainly a hybrid," Motavelli said. "Most PZEVs aren't marked PZEV, so nobody knows you have an environmentally correct car."
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    > You were wrong

    No, I was more precise. There's a huge difference.

    Insisting on detail reveals the misleading content.

    For example, this quote... "By the end of this year, the air board estimates, there will be 140,000 PZEVs on California roads" ...is very misleading because it doesn't mention how many years of sales that actually includes. Doing the same for hybrids nationwide, you could come up with over 110,000.

    No matter, PZEVs totally ignore the other very important objective of reducing our dependence on oil. So they are not a realistic choice anyway. Devoting resources to a technology that only delivers half the need makes no sense.

    PZEV only fixes emissions.

    Diesel only fixes efficiency.

    Hybrids accomplish *BOTH*

    JOHN
  • xcelxcel Posts: 1,025
    Hi John:

    No, I was more precise. There's a huge difference.

    ___Given your statement &#147;And of those 16, only 1 is available outside of California&#148;. Not only is that statement not even close to precise, it is completely false.

    Insisting on detail reveals the misleading content.

    ___Please provide the details on the above given your mis-statements as of late?

    is very misleading because it doesn't mention how many years of sales that includes. Doing the same for hybrids nationwide, you could come up with over 110,000.

    ___The Prius II is the only PZEV hybrid available from Toyota and it was only made available to the public in late 03. The PZEV based HCH is sold in smaller quantities so maybe you can come up with better numbers? I will stand by my ~ 121,000 non-Hybrid PZEV&#146;s in California vs. your unknown yet much lower quantity any day of the week given the article as linked.

    No matter, PZEVs totally ignore the other very important objective of reducing our dependence on oil.

    ___I cannot fault you there. My $15K Corolla receives a lmpg within 3 mpg of your $27K Prius II when I drive but Toyota only allows it to be ULEV rated. Sorry, but that is Toyota&#146;s problem as I would have been very happy to pay the $135 extra for the PZEV HW as those in California do for the PZEV rated Accord. Given the 800,000 + Accord and Camry sales vs. the < 50,000 Prius II&#146;s, what do you think of the possible cleanliness of the air up in Minnesota if Toyota offered the PZEV option to all those Accord and Camry buyers? That would be at least 16 X as many PZEV&#146;s! A PZEV based Accord would give me within 5 mpg of your lmpg and for upwards of ten thousand less yet has lower overall emissions. Care to bring up the Initial and TCO costs of an Accord for everyone to read in this thread? Edmunds will allow the links given it is their information.

    ___Wayne R. Gerdes
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,019
    No matter, PZEVs totally ignore the other very important objective of reducing our dependence on oil.

    Wrong again John! The Civic GX uses NO foreign oil except for lubrication. And at current CNG prices it is about 30% less costly to drive than the Prius. You are going to have to get used to the fact that hybrid is not the only economy game in town.

    Named the cleanest internal-combustion vehicle on Earth by the EPA

    In addition the GX comes fully equpped for about $21k in all 50 states. AND it has better crash test results...
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    > My $15K Corolla receives a lmpg within 3 mpg of your $27K Prius

    Rather than comparing propulsion systems, that comment highlights trim level prices instead... which is not objective.

    In fact, the price isn't even correct. I paid $1K less than that.

    Rather than comparing similiar driving types, that comment compares highway-only data to mixed driving... which is not objective.

    Also note that the Prius MPG quote is incorrect, it is off by over 5 MPG when you take into account the remaining summer months, the fact that E10 used for fuel instead of 100% gas, the fact that high-traction tires rather than the standard ones, and the fact that the new tires required break-in too. Ignoring all that is not objective.

    Clearly, a constructive discussion is not possible.

    JOHN
  • john1701ajohn1701a Posts: 1,897
    > Named the cleanest internal-combustion vehicle on Earth by the EPA

    Correct, that is true.

    However, what actually comes out of the tailpipe is still dirtier than the HSD system.

    GX is only rated at ULEV.

    Prius is rated at PZEV.

    Should I also point out the limited range and filling locations of GX?

    Face it, hybrids pocess a tremendous amount of potential... especially as the price of gas continues to climb up.

    JOHN
  • stevedebistevedebi LAPosts: 3,797
    "Regardless, we need actual numbers to validate any claim. We need to be specific no matter what the outcome. Show me the data."

    Ummm, I don't own a Prius. Could you please measure the width and depth of the area behind the rear seat? Otherwise I have no source for data, since Toyota has no interest in posting such facts.
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