Future Hybrids Which Model Will Be Next?

tradscott

I think that people hear hybrid and automatically think that the latest, high powered hybrids are "greener" than they really are. They may be good at minimizing particulates, but CO2 emmisions from these vehicles are proportional to the gasoline used. If they don't get better mileage they don't produce less CO2. CO2 doesn't create smog, but it does contribute to global warming.

The latest high powered hybrids are appealing mainly when compared to the exact same model without the hybrid. If you need an AWD minivan, then fine, buy the HH. If you don't, you'd probably be a lot "greener" overall to buy a 4 cyl Camry. Better gas mileage. Similar passenger room. Decent performance. Way less pollution/energy to manufacture.

My wife commutes to work with mainly highway driving. She carpools and often drives her Civic, but sometimes drives my 4Runner because it is less tiring to drive. We are thinking about buying a 4 cyl Accord or Camry to replace the Civic. I'd be very interested in a hybrid version of either or these cars, if it were more fuel efficient than the 4 cyl. So far, the manufacturers don't seem to want to address this market even though it is by far their largest passenger car market. 80% of Camrys (most popular car in US) sold are 4 cyl so I'd guess that the majority of Camry owners are more concerned with economy than performance. Maybe their marketing believes these owners are most sensitive to purchase price.

jgbram

Has anyone heard if a Prius convertable is in the works?

larsb

http://car-reviews.automobile.com/news/saturn-to-introduced-green-line-mild-hybrid-lineup-- for-2007/1363/

stevedebi

I considered the Vue in 2003, and am glad I didn't buy one. They are prone to mechanical malfunctions. For 2004-2006 models, the V6 is a Honda engine and transmission, and they haven't had very many problems. But in general I don't like the build quality of the other components, and I shudder to think of what GM's first attempt at true hybrid propulsion will be like - unless they borrow the Honda IMA system.

molokai

My friend has a Vue. 3 transmissions and counting... then they gave him a replacement vehicle, and now he is not having problems. GM.... ughhhh.. I agree... they should use the Honda IMA if they ever want to get into the hybrid market.

stevedebi

"My friend has a Vue. 3 transmissions and counting... "

Was that the CVT that has now been discontinued?

stevedebi

I realize that some news articles have come out claiming that the hybrid Camry will be an I4, but I'm wondering if that will be true. Consider:

1. The Camry is about 250 lbs heavier that the Prius (before adding hybrid weight). Adding batteries and electric motors, it will approach 3500 lbs.
2. If the Ford Escape Hybrid is any reference, an I4 Camry, assuming the 2.4 L engine with Atkinson cycle, would only get early 30's in MPG in town, not much of an increase considering the Hybrid extra cost (maybe 3-4K), and possibly much worse in "real-world" useage.
3. Thus the Camry with I4 would not approach the Prius MPG, and thus would have less draw for those wishing vastly better MPG.
4. On the other hand, a V6 Camry Hybrid would be a rockin' machine, similar to the HAH.

Just tossing the idea out there. If the Camry is not likely to see Prius level MPG anyway, perhaps Toyota will go for power instead.

larsb

I'd say that's a pretty solid source....:D

larsb

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/59234/now_ls_is_going_green.html

larsb

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/59234/now_ls_is_going_green.html

"Now LS is going green - The race to create the first hybrid luxury saloon is over - and Lexus has won it. Exclusive pictures in this week's mag reveal the new LS600h, which will debut at the Tokyo Motor Show in October.

With four-wheel drive, the car follows hot on the heels of the RX400h - the world's only petrol/electric SUV - and cements Lexus as the leader in the field. The 600h also provides the first glimpse of the all-new LS styling. It's well ahead of the scheduled on-sale date of summer 2007."

WHEW !!! (zoom zoom zoom indeed !!! )

molokai

Yes... the CVT.. 2003 model. 4 cylinder too. Raspy sucker!!

tradscott

The HAH doesn't seem to be very popular based on its sales. Why would Toyota want to copy that?

The TCH will likely offer much that the Prius does not including more interior and luggage space, better crash protection, more refined ride, less funky styling, and probably better acceleration. Any number of these things could appeal to more buyers and cover a previously underserved segment of the market.

Toyota will be able to fine tune the performance to be nearly anywhere between the regular I4 Camry and the Prius based on their engine selection and tuning. Let's hope they pick a good performance/economy point that appeals to more of the general public.

stevedebi

"Toyota will be able to fine tune the performance to be nearly anywhere between the regular I4 Camry and the Prius based on their engine selection and tuning. Let's hope they pick a good performance/economy point that appeals to more of the general public."

I too am hoping for the 4cyl, but I am also aware that as the size and weight go up, the potential for economy goes down. The Camry will most likely be around 700 lbs heavier than a Prius, with a larger engine. People will think of it as an economy car, and if they don't get Prius-like MPG they won't be happy. So it could be that Toyota (wanting to make more $$ on higher end sales), will put in a V6. I'm pulling for the I4 because I want to see what a true mid-size (and weight) sedan will produce for MPG with hybridization. The Prius is custom designed for MPG; the Camry is not. It is a test market for the hybridization of a large range of vehicles.

Also, I'm a bit suspicious of both Toyota and Ford over their hybridization. Ford abandoned hybridization of the Explorer after finding out it would not get a very large increase in MPG; Toyota did not hybridize the I4 in the HH, even though that engine is available as ICE only. This tells me that they would not have achieved very good MPG with the I4 (or at least not enough to offset the performance loss relative to the V6). So I'm waiting for a heavier platform to implement the I4 hybrid.

tradscott

Not sure about the 700 lbs, although you could be right. A lighter 4 cyl engine plus the lighter CVT may offset all or part of the batteries. Get rid of the spare and slap on an aluminum hood and trunk lid and you're at 300 lbs. That is without touching many of the suspension components, which could also be lightened with aluminum. Forget the 18 inch alloy wheels. 15 inch wheels with a reasonably sized tire will lighten up the unsprung weight with a rippling effect into the suspension parts. Toyota engineers have lots of options. They can lighten the camry a little if they decide to do so.

They could pick the stock I4 to use or go for the engine in the Prius (hope not). Or an entirely new engine. Heck maybe its a diesel. We're really speculating here and Toyota is pretty tight lipped about this stuff.

Not sure why I'm debating this, they already said it will be a 4.

falconone

700 pounds sounds too much. Maybe 300-400 pounds at most.

stevedebi

"700 pounds sounds too much. Maybe 300-400 pounds at most."

The ICE Camry is already 300-400 lbs heavier than a Prius. I was adding about 300 lbs for battery and associated extra motors, etc.

stevedebi

"Not sure about the 700 lbs, although you could be right. A lighter 4 cyl engine plus the lighter CVT may offset all or part of the batteries. Get rid of the spare and slap on an aluminum hood and trunk lid and you're at 300 lbs. That is without touching many of the suspension components, which could also be lightened with aluminum. Forget the 18 inch alloy wheels. 15 inch wheels with a reasonably sized tire will lighten up the unsprung weight with a rippling effect into the suspension parts. Toyota engineers have lots of options. They can lighten the camry a little if they decide to do so."

Honda went this route with the HAH, which lists at around 30K. Aluminum cost $$.

"They could pick the stock I4 to use or go for the engine in the Prius (hope not). Or an entirely new engine. Heck maybe its a diesel. We're really speculating here and Toyota is pretty tight lipped about this stuff."

Diesel is unlikely since it is not offered on any other Toyota, and is not sellable in all 50 states.

gagrice

Diesel is unlikely

It is unlikely, however they do have a good diesel engine that passes all the Euro4 emissions. Stranger things have happened. It would be a real alternative to the Prius. That would easily beat the Prius in the MPG race.

sinepman

What makes you so sure? The HCH for 2006 is supposed to average 50 or so. I'd be interested in a Honda or Toyota diesel. More reliable. For now we have the hybrids. I wish I had one now! I saw a sign for $3.69 for regular this morning!!

tradscott

Where did you hear the 50 number for the HCH?

tradscott

I agree it is possible. It is also probably more likely every day fuel prices go up. But it is a big problem for any car manufacturer that they couldn't sell it in CA.

larsb

quote tradscott-"Where did you hear the 50 number for the HCH?"-end quote

This page has a review and specs of the 2006 Civic Hybrid:

http://www.autosite.com/content/shared/articles/templates/index.cfm/article_page_order_int- /9/article_id_int/717

falconone

Here is the infor for the Civic Hybrid (2006). 50MPG is the number.

http://tinyurl.com/clqvw

stevedebi

"What makes you so sure? The HCH for 2006 is supposed to average 50 or so."

The Civic is even lighter than the Prius, and much smaller and lighter than the ICE Camry.

stevedebi

"That would easily beat the Prius in the MPG race."

I rather doubt that, but it might have better performance characteristics and definitely would be very reliable. Plus diesel is a long standing technology. I imagine a lot of people would look at that option.

falconone

Not too many reliable diesel vehicles we have to choose from. VW :lemon: Mercedes too expensive and their reliability lately has been abysmal.

stevedebi

"Not too many reliable diesel vehicles we have to choose from. VW Mercedes too expensive and their reliability lately has been abysmal.'

I think most of us are thinking of 2007 and later with the low sulfur diesel. This may open the door to Toyota and Honda to bring their European diesels to market here in the US.

falconone

I sure hope so!! I'd like to get the Honda CRV with the diesel engine. That would be perfect and I think it would sell very well. DC has done well with the Liberty Diesel, but the owners have not. Extremely poor reliability and tons of issues. I really do hope that more manufacturers bring clean diesels to the US market.

editjeff

As fuel prices stay high and go higher the car market will adapt. Cars will add lightweight materials and remove heavy luxury features. And people will want them and love them because gas will be so high. It may take a while for this to happen since car design is not exactly a quick task. The biggest thing to worry about is a situation where gas prices go very very high before efficient cars can be produced in quantity. Something like that could be a really big problem for everyone.

Random thought on hybrids:
I personally hope Honda will do a hybrid version of the Element. With an aluminum frame. If Honda were to make a Civic Hybrid Hatchback (that looks like the 2005 civic si) I'd buy one tomorrow. Surely Toyota will hybridize versions of the Scion line which I also am interested in. Subaru will have to drop 4wd on any hybrid models to increase mileage. That will be hard for them since they have marketed themselves into a corner with their 4wd campaigns. I have a 2000 Outback and I know for sure it would get much better mpg if it wasn't lugging around an extra drivetrain all the time. And where is VW in all this. They really don't get it anymore. They have been so intent on destroying their heritage that they have nothing to offer for the future but a bunch of stinky diesels and that cool/crazy 200mpg prototype they made a few years ago. Where are the practical VW's of the past for today? If they brought the Polo over here and made it a hybrid or at least super high mileage conventional car, they would have my money.

The car companies need to pull their heads out or they are going to miss the mark, again. The future is going to be interesting, and weird.

:surprise:

peralta

Comparing actual mileage database of Highlander hybrid AWD and FWD from another site (greenhybrid.com), HH AWD gets 27 mpg while HH FWD got only 26 mpg.

In real world appliacation there is no penalty in mileage for the AWD for toyota's HSD.

The AWD is also quicker 0-60 by more than half seconds since the rear motor has 50 horses.

I love to have one.

Toyota, hear us here.

falconone

Get a Subaru. Decent on gas and not that expensive.

stevedebi

"In real world appliacation there is no penalty in mileage for the AWD for toyota's HSD.

The AWD is also quicker 0-60 by more than half seconds since the rear motor has 50 horses. "

Subaru would not likely use the HH system, which uses electric motors on the rear wheels. That system cannot be engaged full time; the electric motors overheat. That is why Toyota does not recommend taking the HH into serious off-road conditions. Subaru would have to duplicate the mechanical drivetrain, which would cause a substantial penalty in MPG.

This lack of full time functionality is the "real world penalty" to the HH AWD system.

larsb

http://automobilemag.com/auto_shows/tokyo/0511_lexus_ls/

"Since the LF-Sh concept has a V-8 hybrid powertrain, and since Toyota is introducing a hybrid version of the GS, called the GS450h, next spring, it's logical to expect a hybrid version of the LS as well, which likely will be called the LS600h. Toyota's hybrid efforts are now following two paths: Toyota hybrid vehicles will emphasize efficiency and fuel economy, while Lexus hybrids will concentrate more on performance than on ultimate fuel efficiency. All Lexus hybrid vehicles will become the top trim levels within their respective lineups. The LS600h, then, likely could rival competitors' twelve-cylinder models in performance while still being green enough to make its owners think they're not contributing to global warming."

stevedebi

"Toyota hybrid vehicles will emphasize efficiency and fuel economy, while Lexus hybrids will concentrate more on performance than on ultimate fuel efficiency. "

Somebody should have told Toyota that; the HH uses a 6 cyl engine, and strives for performance. Maybe the confusion over there is the reason they didn't put in an Atkinson cycle 4 cylinder in the HH.

kdhspyder

There is a larger strategy here I believe.

The HSD Camry will debut next based on its 2.4L with an effective HP of abt 200+ but since its much bigger than the Prius it probably wont get in the 50's mpg. I'd guess 40 Hwy to 50 City but with V6 power at about the same price as an LE V6 now. I'd guess that on average it will be abt 60-80% more efficient than the V6 ICE in the Camry. The buyer's choices might look like this:
2.4L ICE @ 25-35 and 166 hp
2.4L HSD @ 50-40 and ~200hp
3.3L ICE @ 23-31 and ~ 230hp

The new RAV will debut next month as an ICE only but with the same 2.4L engine and the 268 HP Avalon 3.5L V6. The 4c Highlander will disappear I believe. In the next iteration the Highlander will have only a V6 engine but with the HSD option for those wanting V8 power. All the vehicles are moving up in HP.

We'll see soon.

kdhspyder

larsb

http://www.airforcetimes.com/story.php?f=1-292925-1195137.php

dvd1

Are there any plans besides GM's for hybrid pickup trucks? I drive a Ford Sport- Trac and would be very interested in a similar type vehicle if available with hybrid technology

dandersen2

I know this sounds whacked, but it makes a lot of sense. Most cop cars spend lots of time idling. They are parked with the engine on why? To run the AC and all the electronics and so they can get going in a hurry. A hybrid can go from a standing start with all its torque from 0 rpm and has tons of battery power for all those gadgets. I know conservative, built like a brick house rep of the crown vic/intercepter will never give way to a hybrid, but it ever there was a right application for this technology its this.

larsb

From this page: http://www.greencarcongress.com/hybrids/index.html

Rumors Rampant: Next-Gen 94MPG Prius by 2008?
April 10, 2006
The UK’s AutoExpress reports that Toyota’s fuel economy target for the upcoming next-generation Prius is 40 kilometers/liter (2.5 l/100km, or 94 mpg US), and that the automaker is striving to have the new Prius on the road as early as 2008.

According to a Toyota engineer quoted by the publication, the entire electrical system is being redesigned to improve the fuel economy, and the automaker is working to switch to a lithium-ion battery system from the NiMH pack used in the current Prius.

At 94 mpg, the redesigned Prius would approach the lower end of the projected 100–150 mpg fuel consumption of EDrive’s aftermarket plug-in Prius. (Earlier post.) The EDrive conversion currently carries a price tag of about $12,000 in addition to the cost of the base Prius.

nwng

is Li-On going to cost more than nimh?

mdennish

GM states in local paper that a hybrid will be offered in 2007, does anyone have any knowledge of this event and what kind of hybrid will be offered?

mdennish

kurtamaxxxguy

Hybrid to my knowledge will be based on Ecotec 4 and similar to the current system in VUE (motor/alternator, small battery system).

larsb

Do not underestimate hybrids

Sure, maybe hybrid interest has dropped for some hybrids, but it's almost impossible to claim interest has dropped for Toyota's hybrids. Ultimately, as with my first computer, the future of hybrids will simply come down to cost and benefits. The costs of hybrids - at least Toyota's - are coming down as the benefits of using less gas, fighting foreign oil dependency and global warming are going up.

Back in the 80's, declining interest in the Commodore 64 didn't mean the death of computers. It just meant the best of computer technology moved forward, such as Apple and Microsoft. Good thing Bill Gates and Steve Jobs didn't listen to the Commodore 64 and computer critics of the '80s.

"Why would you want a computer," my mom asked back in the 80's. Yet, today, even my retired mom owns a computer. Soon, "Why would you want a hybrid," will be as dumb of a question.