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Hybrids Success in the Marketplace - Hybrid Sales Numbers

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Comments

  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    Lack of incentives has not hurt yet - why should it start now?

    "Down" a whole 1% from last August - Large Whoop. When the sales for the whole year are 50% ahead of last year, I'd say a 1 percent difference between sales in August 2006 and 2007 is pretty much negligible.

    By saying you think they will max at 240K for the year, you are putting hybrid sales at only 12,500 per month for the rest of the year.

    I say they will be far closer to 260K. We'll see who is correct in a few months. I will bow to your "predictive awesomeness" if the time comes to do so......
  • If sales are down in August,it's not because people have lost interest.It's because you cant find a Hybrid.I dont consider the GM versions as true hybrids.Only Toyota,Honda and Ford.Nissan doesn't manufacture enough of them to be a player.Why would someone want a 6 cyl.on a hybrid?Isnt the idea to save on gas,as well as being environment friendly.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 28,680
    Lack of incentives has not hurt yet - why should it start now?

    Ah, but the tax credits are still on for Toyota through 9/30/07. Plus many dealers have discounted and Toyota offered incentives on Prius. 260k could be made. I don't see your original 284k in sales. They can hardly give away the GS450h and Highlander Hybrid. The Prius and TCH as doing well. Reason they are getting the MPG people buying a hybrid expect. At least most of them are.
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    The "burr in the saddle" for TMC to make their 284K total hybrid sales is mostly dropping gas prices, and very little at all effect of the hybrid tax credit.

    The credit has been declining for most of the year, and so far sales are up 50% for the year through the first 8 months - based on that fact alone, I think we can say the tax credit decline has not hurt their sales.

    Whether that still has little or no effect at all will be determined by the OCT-DEC sales, UNLESS gas prices keep falling. If gas is $2.10 by December 31st, then all small car sales (not just hybrids) will be down because the USA car buyer has consistently shown a short memory and poor car-buying decision-making over the years.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 28,680
    I think as long as there is any credit, it will impact hybrid sales in a positive way. Right today there are many dealers selling the Prius at invoice just to move them off the lot. Not sure about the TCH. They do not put out much info on those numbers.

    I do agree on the knee jerk reaction to the price of gas. The masses buy small when gas prices are high. Then back to the vehicles they really want the SUVs when gas prices go lower. Smart money would buy that SUV when the price of gas is over 3 bucks. If they really want a econobox wait for the gas prices to fall in the Fall. So simple yet folks just don't get it.
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    first of all, anyone who SELECTS a particular car solely on the money they might or might not spend on gas money is an idiot.

    Gas prices will fluctuate up and down over the course of owning the car.

    Buy the car or truck or SUV which meets your needs and which has the highest MPG and lowest pollution numbers of all the cars in your "list of finalists."

    If it's a 20 MPG SUV, then face the fact that you are going to be paying a lot for gas money over the life of the car, but hey, you'll have plenty of wasted cargo space !!

    If it's a 40 MPG 5-passenger car, face the fact that you are going to have less storage space but will be insulating yourself from high gas prices !!!

    Your right, it has always been simple.
  • PFFlyer@EdmundsPFFlyer@Edmunds Pennsylvania Furnace, PAPosts: 5,808
    A Forbes.com article on the least efficient hybrids and the dreaded "hybrid premium" are the subject of today's Alternate Route entry, Boon or Bane?

    PFFlyer@Edmunds

    Moderator - Hatchbacks & Hybrid Vehicles

  • yerth10yerth10 Posts: 428
    Sep-2007 Sales are in and Hybrids have not done well.
    Toyota + Lexus had sales of 18,130 while Honda has around 2,321. Thats a total of 20,451

    Nissan may be around 1,000 while Ford may be around 2,000. All this may bring a total of 23,000, which is annualized sale of around 275,000.

    But Sep-2007 overall vehicle sales is 4 % less while the Hybrids may be the same which is good.

    Some lessons learned here.
    * Despite the introduction of newly designed Highlander, its sales declined from 2,347 in Sep-2006 to 193. The reason is they increased the length, width, height and the weight of the vehicle and the green-minded people have rejected this as Hybrid model.

    * Prius had 23 % increase with 12,494 units sold, while Camry slightly increased from 4,044 to 4,196 units.

    * GS450h declined from 162 to 72, Rx400h declined from 1,687 to 979 and the new entry LS600h gained 196.

    * Overall, Toyota has to remove some extras and reduced the prices. Already price of Prius is reduced by 1,200 and Camry by 1,000.

    * People are quite shrewd and have become more cost conscious especially with problems in housing market and the economy in general.

    If automakers think of dumping gas-guzzling Hybrids, people will simply end up buying small hatchbacks. Oil prices are staying at $80 / barrel and we dont know when it will relect in gas prices.
  • yerth10yerth10 Posts: 428
    Are hybrid manufacturers moving in the right direction?

    Answer is NO.

    For ex - Toyota decision to increase the weight of Hybrid Highlander by 500 lbs (230 kg) is a bad decision. People have rejected it and its sales have declined from 2,347 in Sep-2006 to 193 in Sep-2007.

    With gas prices at $2.8 / gallon and oil prices at $80 / barrel and constant news about the impacts of Global Warming, people are downsizing the vehicles they purchase.
    Even worse is some people are just keeping their old vehicles and the annual sales are simply declining every month.

    Another weird decision for Toyota is to put the Hybrid system in LS600h with V8 engine.

    GM and Chrysler are marching in the same path with their Tahoe/Yukon and Durango/Aspen Hybrids. No idea as how well it will sell.

    Moral : Hybrids with V4 engine are selling well, while those with V6 & V8 are going down.
  • stevedebistevedebi LAPosts: 3,719
    "For ex - Toyota decision to increase the weight of Hybrid Highlander by 500 lbs (230 kg) is a bad decision. People have rejected it and its sales have declined from 2,347 in Sep-2006 to 193 in Sep-2007."

    It is truly strange. Small I4 engines CAN get good HP - witness the new Honda Accord, which has an I4 option at 190 HP. Combine that with an HSD and I think it would drive the HH pretty well, with better MPG.
  • mickeyrommickeyrom Posts: 936
    You cant buy a hybrid if you cant find one.
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    your post generated a couple of thoughts:

    1. Hybrids are not just for "super high mileage" cars. Toyota has repeatedly pledged to make hybridization an option for every one of it's cars. That means all engine sizes. And that's not a mistake because hybridizing ANY CAR creates a higher mileage version of the same car, regardless of the engine size. A V6 with a hybrid option will get better mpg than a V6 without. A V8 will do the same. So hybridizing larger engines is not a mistake in itself. Whether car buyers want to spend the extra money for the hybrid option on larger cars is still up for debate.

    2. The "old thinking mindset" that hybridization is only for small cars with small engines needs to go away. Toyota will be helping send that old notion on it's merry old way.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 28,680
    A V6 with a hybrid option will get better mpg than a V6 without. A V8 will do the same. So hybridizing larger engines is not a mistake in itself. Whether car buyers want to spend the extra money for the hybrid option on larger cars is still up for debate.

    I think the buying public has spoken. The Hybrid Accord a big flop. The GS450h a Big flop now the new Highlander hybrid looks to be a flop. I think the Toyota will get the picture and build hybrids for economy and forget the rest. Across the board hybridization is a poor notion that is not paying off for Toyota. Hopefully we have seen the last with their luxo barge hybrid LS600.
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    Confucious say:

    One car "flop" does not a "public has spoken moment" make.

    And saying "across the board hybridization is a poor notion that is not paying off" is being a little premature, since they haven't even starting really getting into it large-scale yet - they are still VERY MUCH in the "toes in the water" stage right now.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 28,680
    Do you have a link for Toyota saying they will hybridize any more after the last few flops? One car flop? You think Toyota is happy with sales on the GS450h, RX400h and HH this year? Even the Camry hybrid sales are flat.
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    sure do:

    Dated 10-3-2007

    "If investment in future low-carbon technologies are taken into account, Toyota, the world’s largest car maker, does better: it will have hybrids across its entire range by 2020, and by then expects to be marketing fuel-cell cars commercially."

    Yes, ONE CAR flopped. The Accord hybrid. Not even a Toyota.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Posts: 7,160
    * Despite the introduction of newly designed Highlander, its sales declined from 2,347 in Sep-2006 to 193. The reason is they increased the length, width, height and the weight of the vehicle and the green-minded people have rejected this as Hybrid model.

    ACCURACY ALERT !! ... ALERT !!!
    You do know of course that the new 2008 Hybrid Highlander hasn't been delivered to the US yet. :surprise:

    It's only due here around Nov 1. The 193 are the few remaining 2007 HH left over.

    Now we also have to add GM to the mix with it's very capable 2-Modes. Initially they are estimating 10000 Tahoes and Yukons then followed by an Escalade, Malibu, Aura and Vue 2-Mode hybrid.

    Having the two largest vehicle makers in the world whipping the hybrid horse should have everyone here in NA ready to consider at least the option to drive a hybrid.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Posts: 7,160
    Do you have a link for Toyota saying they will hybridize any more after the last few flops? One car flop? You think Toyota is happy with sales on the GS450h, RX400h and HH this year? Even the Camry hybrid sales are flat.

    Accuracy is KEY to forming a valid opinion and conclusion. The fact that the OP made a huge error in accuracy shouldn't be the basis for anyone else coming to an additional erroneous conclusion....if you catch my drift.

    Here is a key concept to keep in mind regarding all the hybrids from all the manufacturers. The system is a electro-mechanical method to improve the worst characteristics of the traditional Otto cycle ICE; i.e. the City driving part of a vehicle's life.

    All the hybrids on the road now, including the 2-Modes soon to come, accomplish the same benefit. Each improves the Highway driving efficiency slightly ( 10-20% ) but each improves the City driving dramatically ( 40-60% ). If one could look at the entire NA fleet of vehicles, pick out the worst fuel-abusing characteristic, then magically make it go away that would be a huge benefit, would it not? Consider it done.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 28,680
    Do you really think that Lexus is happy with their foray into hybrids? Or are they just being pushed by Toyota? The October sales with no tax incentives will tell a better tale on Toyota hybrids.

    As far as the GM hybrids. They better get the bugs worked out of the Saturn hybrid before they have another 1980s diesel fiasco on their record. GM single handedly made diesel cars taboo. They could do the same with hybrids.
  • The Accord Hybrid failed because Honda made a rare and fatal miscalculation. They used the gas/electric motor combination not to save gas (which I believe is why people actually buy hybrids, duh), but to increase power. Is anybody really going to pay a premium for what is, after all, a family sedan! just to get a little extra kick, vs. just buying a low-end BMW instead. Don't think so.
This discussion has been closed.