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Rank the Big 4 Ford, GM, Toyota, Chrysler. Best? Worst?

I'm hearing a lot of people sayin' Ford is better off, GM is better off than Ford.

Who is making the most progress? Who is gonna be #1 in 10 years?

Who is falling off the map? Who will regroup in 5 years and gain share?

Will Nissan or Honda get to 15% of the market?

Will GM/Ford's restructuring take them down over 5 years, to lead to a rebirth in 2010? Will they become smaller, faster, more flexible?

Will GM focus more on China, as they have assumed a leadership position there, and that market is growing to soon become the #1 world's market?

Will Ford's CUV/Hybrid push get them out of the doldrums?

Will F-150 fight off the new Silverado, and protect a huge fallout at Ford?

Will Chevy stay #1 in cars over Ford? Can Ford fight back?

How strong is Chrysler? +5% last year. Are they America's version of Toyota? Will they pass Ford too?

Let's let it out, people! Don't keep it bottled up inside. That ain't right.

DrFill
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Comments

  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    Chrysler will pass Ford in the U.S. at this rate. They have been working hard enough with their product to deserve this milestone, too.

    GM and Ford? This is really just the battle to the death in large trucks. Most of their other product is fringe, fading in relevance in the U.S. and NEVER relevant in the rest of the world.

    I predict GM will rapidly crank up production in China in the next few years and milk it for all it's worth in order to reduce costs, so its chances for resurgence in 5-10 years are better than Ford's.

    F-150 will NOT fight off the new Silverado - the full-size GM truck already outsells the F-150 if you include the rebadged versions in the total. GM will dominate here, and I expect it to lock down even tighter the full-size SUV segment, which is (unfortunately for GM) shrinking fast.

    What else did you ask? Neither Nissan nor Honda will reach 15%, no. Honda doesn't have the resources to do this, and Nissan is too upsy-downsy in quality to make its new strategy of "kill 'em with surplus horsepower" fully effective.

    Toyota will be the number one manufacturer in the world in the next couple three years, I expect. I kinda think they will pass either Ford or Chrysler Group in the U.S. too (maybe both? long odds though), but I am not so sure of the timeline there. GM is a big icon to topple in terms of sales, especially with the very large volumes it sends to fleets. I expect it to stay firmly number one in sales in the U.S., although in retail sales Toyota will probably pull ahead.

    Hey don't forget: in the last weeks GM's stock has been up-rated, even as Ford's has sunk even further, right? Maybe these stock analysts don't know squat, but MAYBE they are shrewder than we think. I say GM up, Ford down, in a decade. That is the time line we are focusing on here, right?

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • I have:

    1. GM at 20%

    2. Toyota at 18%

    3. Chrysler at 16%

    4. Ford at 15%

    DrFill
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    Wow, I hadn't really crystallized numbers in my head, but if I were to do so, they would be pretty darn close to those, doc! Maybe Toyota 17%, Chrysler 15%, with the other two the same.

    Which means it is only a few short years until the original Big 3 control less than half the U.S. market.

    And I think the numbers you have there will be fairly stable. Honda and Nissan will nip at Toyota's heels too much for it to advance much beyond there in market share, while the spiral downwards for Ford and GM will finally stop around that point.

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • carlisimocarlisimo Posts: 1,280
    I think you forgot about Europe when you mentioned Ford's irrelevance in the rest of the world. It's not a growing market, but Ford has potential for growth into higher profit segments there.
  • So let's not take our biases too far. Back to a neutral corner.

    From that NBC special, I think Chrysler has something in the Caliber. It's a step up from the Neon anyway. Can't lose thur! :)

    DrFill
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    Heck, Ford has potential for growth into higher profit segments RIGHT HERE in the good ol' U.S. of A! At any time in the last decade or more, they could have chosen to FINALLY take the Lincoln marque seriously again. The best we got was the LS, which wasn't bad, but was almost instantly passed by the market.

    No, I didn't forget Europe.

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • au94au94 Posts: 171
    Difficult question to answer. Do you look at sales, profits, utilization of capacity, who has the best looking cars?

    If so, I'd say Toyota wins in 3 of those 4 categories.

    Over the next 10 years, the challenge for Ford and GM is to execute on the plans they have recently laid out for recovery. All the while continueing to preserve (at a minimum) market share and gain some with the new upcoming models.

    Chrysler needs to maintain the buzz they have generate over the last several years with their sucessful products like the PT Cruiser and 300. I still think Chrysler is fighting the poor quality stigma from years past.

    I don't think Toyota will ever overtake any of them for overall US market share leader. Fleet sales will save the Big 2.5 there.

    I do think there's hope, particularly on the Ford side. The will not let the truck market go without a fight. Same with the Explorer. Of course if gas prices keep going up, it may be out of their hands. But the Fusion is a decent entry in the market, with a few life cycle tweaks it could be a competitor, and there is lots of potential at Lincoln. Similar to Caddy, they've got to reinvent themselves in the eyes of younger buyers that would normally go European or high end Japanese.
  • http://www.axcessnews.com/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=7757

    Domestic Auto Sales Drop Sharply in January

    (AXcess News) New York - According to the latest report on domestic auto sales by J.D. Power & Associates, US auto makers saw an 11 percent decline in retail sales through the first 15 days of January when compared to the same time period a year ago.

    GM and Ford retail sales declined when compared to early January 2005 with GM down 28 percent and Ford down 25 percent. DaimlerChrysler was also down 13 percent when compared to the same period in 2005. Among the nine multi-franchise new-vehicle manufacturers, Hyundai and Toyota have had the best retail performance thus far in January. Retail sales for Hyundai were up 19 percent and Toyota Motor retail sales were up 9 percent compared to the first half of January 2005.

    In addition to the retail sales increase, Toyota had the highest retail share in the industry for the first 15 days of the month -- up 3.4 points versus a year ago to 18.8 percent. The domestic manufacturers follow Toyota with GM at 17.5 percent (down 4.2 points versus a year ago) and Ford Motor Company at 14.7 percent (down 2.8 points). DaimlerChrysler also saw a decline in the first 15 days of January to 12.8 percent (down 0.3 points). In contrast, American Honda, Nissan and Hyundai have all increased market share versus a year ago, with American Honda at 12.3 percent (up 1.4 points), Nissan at 8.6 percent (up 0.7 point) and Hyundai at 5.7 percent (up 1.4 points).

    .....
  • Similar reports have been coming out since the end of the Employee Price Wars, and with Toyota releasing the IS, LS, ES, Camry, Tundra, Rav4, and FJ Cruiser this year alone, this snowball could well turn into an avalanche!

    I'm surprised that Honda ia almost at 13%. I don't know why though.

    I guess the Sonata redesign has been a success! Wonder how the next Elantra will turn out.

    DrFill
  • German over-engineering is starting to pay off for Chrysler. I like the Charger, the Challenger looks cool, waiting for the Duster resurrection.
  • merc1merc1 Posts: 6,081
    waiting for the Duster resurrection

    LOL. I doubt we'll get a Duster due to Plymouth having being killed a few years back. This just brings to light how many old nameplates the domestics must have that they could bring back. I'm sure the list is endless!

    If Ford, GM or DCX could just get a hold of the Camry/Accord market with one car that could sell in those volumes they would be on the road to a real recovery. The 300 is the most impressive product from Chrysler in years, but they need the same type of success with their next generation mid-size sedans. These won't be engineered with help from Mercedes-Benz.

    GM? Well I don't know what to say. They're just plain ole too big. Too many models to keep updating and not nearly the money to do it. Ford missed a big chance at small car glory by not bringing over the European Focus. That said, Ford does seem to have some interesting products on the way for their traditional brands, after years of neglect spending the money on the PAG group.

    M
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    from Mercedes, the next generation of Chrysler midsizers will get lots of help from Mitsubishi. Gulp. I don't look for the same sales success for the next Stratus/Sebring as the 300 enjoyed. I hope at least the styling is distinctive.

    OTOH, in the longer term, other Chrysler stuff looks like it will be good and sell well - the Challenger, the Caliber, the new Jeeps, even the Imperial if that makes it to production. Dodge will need a new small sedan eventually though. Chrysler has to keep "bringing it" for a while yet if it hopes to rise in market share as predicted in this thread.

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • mirthmirth Posts: 1,212
    I see Chrysler on a down-tick at the moment. Their upcoming products don't really wow me (except possibly the Caliber). I think they got swelled heads over the success of the 300, lost their best people (Deiter, Wolfgang) to Germany, and now aren't sure what to do (a 300 minivan! a 300 roadster! etc etc).
  • explorerx4explorerx4 Central CTPosts: 9,616
    i know it is a 'critical' success, but how many are actually sold? anyone have numbers?
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    way more than the old 300M.

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • mirthmirth Posts: 1,212
    I think the 300 sold 150K units last year. Respectable, but not company-saving. Heck, the Mustang sold 160K. The real problem is that I don't see any of Chryslers upcoming cars having the success of the 300, and some I think are a big step backwards (Aspen). The Caliber will likely do well, but it won't be the big hit the 300 will.

    I think Chrysler is too busy patting themselves on the back and not looking enough to the future.
  • lemkolemko Posts: 15,144
    ...but to really draw me away from Buick or Cadillac, Chrysler has GOT to release the Imperial! Speaking of Imperial, "Collectible Automobile" has an excellent article about the 1969-73 Imperials in its April 2006 issue that's already out.
  • boaz47boaz47 Posts: 2,749
    Has always been an on again off again company. I happen to like many of their designs and think they have some of the best "looking" cars out there right now. Toyota impresses me with their dependability. They just don't have many vehicles that cause me to take a second look. I would rate them differently depending on what I wanted a vehicle for. For weekend cruising and driving out to dinner I would go with Chrysler. Obviously I like Chrysler for a daily driver, I have a PT. I would pick a 300C with a hemi for my going out on the town vehicle. If I were commuting any distance I might look towards Toyota. For a Sports car I would look at GM. The Vette is in a class all by itself. Ford has the exotic I would love to have. They also build the Truck I like the best. I can't pick one company and call them my favorite. I just like cars and they all make cars.
  • habitat1habitat1 Posts: 4,282
    I'll go out to 2015:

    #1 Toyota - 25%

    #2 Honda - 20%

    #3 GM -15%

    #4 Daimler Chrysler - 12%

    As the post WWII demographic fades out of the marketplace, I believe the US domestic market share will continue to slide.
  • lemkolemko Posts: 15,144
    Did they drop off the map?
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    Toyota gets to 25%. Maybe not ever, certainly not in ten years. Just one opinion.

    No way Honda tops GM in that time frame either. GM is less easy to predict because if they do declare bankruptcy (burned through 15% of their cash reserves in one year in 2005, so it is more than possible, especially with the very big unknown of what will happen with the Delphi proceedings), it may cause a quick and massive downswing in their market share, but I can't imagine Honda getting to 20%.

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • rockyleerockylee Posts: 14,011
    The Imperial is a very desriable vehicle pal. Good Quality and Fit and Finish ;) They just need to drop in a SRT-8 or SRT-10 engine and keep it high $40's to low 50's to be a Huge Winner. Good cars at a great price is why Chrysler is kicking Ford and GM's butt right now.

    The SRT-8 Charger, SRT-8 300C, Challenger, Jeep Cherokee SRT-8, and the possibility of a Imperial is what is keeping Chrysler with positive IMAGE news. I'm not saying the Technology and Fit and Finish is better than GM and Ford, but most cars and trucks Chrysler is building are cheaper and more powerful than GM and Ford. Chrysler is the American Horsepower performance "bang for buck" icon at this present time. I just wished those cars had a bit higher domestic content in them :cry:

    Rocky
  • rockyleerockylee Posts: 14,011
    I gotta agree....25% for toyota is ridiculous. :confuse:

    habitat1, You haven't factored in the "Hyundai Factor" that has and will continue to steal huge market shares from Toyota and Honda. The Big 3 have loyalist buyers. The foreign car buyer is a consumer that is looking at the best car on the market at the best price. Hyundai by 2015 will build a better camcord than the Japanese at a much lower price. Look at em' now they are good already. By 2015 :surprise: Hyundai will under cut Toyota and Honda something Chrysler's CEO has spoken about.
    Hyundai might end up being the best tool to help save the Big 3 and break up the Camcord Billion Dollar monopoly. ;)

    Rocky
  • dieselonedieselone Posts: 5,641
    The Big 3 have loyalist buyers.

    Then why have they been losing market share for the past 30 years? Apparently GM's loyal customers only buy when there is a big fat rebate on the hood.

    While I think it's a long shot that Toyota makes it to 25%, you can't deny the trends. I don't know if anyone can have 25% market share anymore with all of the quality competition. Toyota and Honda have been making gains while Ford and GM have been losing. It doesn't take a math genius to figure if CURRENT trends continue, Toyota will over take Ford and GM in marketshare in the US.

    Granted, Ford and GM have a decent product lineup for '06 and '07. January's sales look solid. What's alarming is with all of the new product GM and Ford have, Toyota and Honda both had more sales growth again and Toyota is competing with older models. Just wait until Toyota's redesigned/updated models come out, they'll probably gain even more share.
  • habitat1habitat1 Posts: 4,282
    "habitat1, You haven't factored in the "Hyundai Factor" that has and will continue to steal huge market shares from Toyota and Honda."

    Duh. Last time I checked, Toyota's and Honda's market share is going UP not down. The Big Three's is going DOWN, not up. And that's been the situation ever since Hyundai entered the market. So which math class did you skip that causes you to conclude that Hyundai is stealing share from Toyota and Honda.

    Hyundai is doing what Honda and Toyota did 30 years ago - stealing market share from GM and Ford's lower to middle end of the market. But now Honda and Toyota, along with their Acura and Lexus counterparts, are killing the Big Three in the upper middle to upper end of the market.

    "The foreign car buyer is a consumer that is looking at the best car on the market at the best price".

    Now that's a novel concept, foreign car buyers are prudent - and domestic buyers are ....? ;) That pretty much sums up GM's failure in the marketplace. A little too much laziness thinking their "loyalist buyers" wouldn't wake up and smell the coffee. It would appear that several million of them have, and they've become more prudent and less loyal to the Big 3 as a result.

    If I was on Chrysler's Board of Directors and heard the CEO dismiss any foreign competition, I'd call for his removal. Successful companies stay that way by taking all competitive threats seriously and continuously striving to make even better products, improve efficiencies, etc. Given the downward spiral of the Big 3's market share, you'd have to be a buffoon to make a comment like that one. And, by the way, the BMW 5-series has overtaken the Mercedes E-class in the luxury sedan segment. Guess those "Mercedes loyalists" have learned how to smell coffee as well. :(

    That Midas touch of the Big Three knows no boundaries.
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    that at least in California, the ones most impacted by Hyundai's growth are GM and Ford - they are losing sales left and right to the longer-warranty, lower-priced company. In terms of quality and reliability, GM and Ford have a pretty poor rep here, so that Hyundai is pretty much considered an equal to them nowadays.

    Now what did Hyundai do with the '06 Sonata? They tried to play on their increasingly good rep a little too soon, by bringing up prices to match or exceed their domestic rivals, and what happened? Sales dropped, despite being a brand new model. Hyun/Kia has been way too eager in its plans and ambitions for the U.S. market these last couple of years, so this was predictable. But I have no doubt they will get back on track with their expansion.

    In ten years, in U.S. market share, I think the order will go GM, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Ford, Chrysler. Nissan could fall of that list, it has been so upsy-downsy, and Chrysler could yet surprise me by rising higher than I expect. Apart from that I don't expect many surprises.

    Look further out, 20-25 years, and I could see Toyota overtaking GM, but the key is fleet sales, which Toyota won't allow to exceed 10-15% on any given model, while GM will happily sell 50-70% of a model or more to fleets. But of course, in 20-25 years, GM will finally have downsized to an appropriate size, so it may be avoiding fleet sales a lot more then. I will say it again, the key to the number one spot in 2030 is fleet sales.

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • As some may know, I am a hard core Honda guy. But Nippon, do you really think they have a chance at outselling Ford? The F-series trucks alone sell 800k+ a year and even though the Explorer is lagging, it's still good for another 200k+ on top of that.

    Honda sold 1,462,xxx units last year across both the Honda and Acura lines. Ford has the PAG and Mazda to add to the figures as well. I mean, I am definitly rooting for them to grow, but Ford Motor (even in the slup that they are) is still a powerhouse in sales figures.

    Toyo is destined to oust GM for the number 1 spot. They've earned it for sure. Heck, I am rooting for FMC or DCX to overtake GM for once. Even they deserve it more than the "Generally Mediocre"...
  • But in 10-15 years, whoever is Number 1 will have no more than 21-22%, and I expect there to be 5 companies in double digits.

    DrFill
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    I am looking for the F-series to lose its dominance in the next 5 years. Ford probably won't update it again until decade's end.

    In the meantime, the all-new Ram and all-new Silverado/Sierra will arrive (very soon, in the case of the GM trucks). Toyota will step up with a "real" Tundra that will siphon 100K sales/year away from the domestics at least, I am guessing. We might even see the popularity of the Titan grow.

    Do you know how close to Ford Honda would have been if the F-series had sold 500K instead of 800K+? I also think the market is going to trend back towards Honda-type vehicles in the next five years - by that, I mean less frame-based SUVs and more crossovers, and more sedans also. These are Honda strengths, not Ford strengths.

    Anyway, it is merely a guess, but I think it could happen. Honda HAD BETTER get its act back in gear from the early 00s, however. All the transmission problems as well as the less erious stuff like rattles, squeaks, and minor electrical annoyances, have to stop. If they can't expand without having that stuff in the mix, then no, they will not beat Ford in the sales game.

    I don't believe they include Mazda when they report FoMoCo sales, but I'm not sure why - perhaps it doesn't own enough of the company? PAG certainly isn't going to count for a whole lot of sales, not enough to change the order in the list.

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • rockyleerockylee Posts: 14,011
    Get back to me in 2015 and see whom is where. :blush:

    Rocky
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