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Rank the Big 4 Ford, GM, Toyota, Chrysler. Best? Worst?

I'm hearing a lot of people sayin' Ford is better off, GM is better off than Ford.

Who is making the most progress? Who is gonna be #1 in 10 years?

Who is falling off the map? Who will regroup in 5 years and gain share?

Will Nissan or Honda get to 15% of the market?

Will GM/Ford's restructuring take them down over 5 years, to lead to a rebirth in 2010? Will they become smaller, faster, more flexible?

Will GM focus more on China, as they have assumed a leadership position there, and that market is growing to soon become the #1 world's market?

Will Ford's CUV/Hybrid push get them out of the doldrums?

Will F-150 fight off the new Silverado, and protect a huge fallout at Ford?

Will Chevy stay #1 in cars over Ford? Can Ford fight back?

How strong is Chrysler? +5% last year. Are they America's version of Toyota? Will they pass Ford too?

Let's let it out, people! Don't keep it bottled up inside. That ain't right.

DrFill
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Comments

  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    Chrysler will pass Ford in the U.S. at this rate. They have been working hard enough with their product to deserve this milestone, too.

    GM and Ford? This is really just the battle to the death in large trucks. Most of their other product is fringe, fading in relevance in the U.S. and NEVER relevant in the rest of the world.

    I predict GM will rapidly crank up production in China in the next few years and milk it for all it's worth in order to reduce costs, so its chances for resurgence in 5-10 years are better than Ford's.

    F-150 will NOT fight off the new Silverado - the full-size GM truck already outsells the F-150 if you include the rebadged versions in the total. GM will dominate here, and I expect it to lock down even tighter the full-size SUV segment, which is (unfortunately for GM) shrinking fast.

    What else did you ask? Neither Nissan nor Honda will reach 15%, no. Honda doesn't have the resources to do this, and Nissan is too upsy-downsy in quality to make its new strategy of "kill 'em with surplus horsepower" fully effective.

    Toyota will be the number one manufacturer in the world in the next couple three years, I expect. I kinda think they will pass either Ford or Chrysler Group in the U.S. too (maybe both? long odds though), but I am not so sure of the timeline there. GM is a big icon to topple in terms of sales, especially with the very large volumes it sends to fleets. I expect it to stay firmly number one in sales in the U.S., although in retail sales Toyota will probably pull ahead.

    Hey don't forget: in the last weeks GM's stock has been up-rated, even as Ford's has sunk even further, right? Maybe these stock analysts don't know squat, but MAYBE they are shrewder than we think. I say GM up, Ford down, in a decade. That is the time line we are focusing on here, right?

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • I have:

    1. GM at 20%

    2. Toyota at 18%

    3. Chrysler at 16%

    4. Ford at 15%

    DrFill
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    Wow, I hadn't really crystallized numbers in my head, but if I were to do so, they would be pretty darn close to those, doc! Maybe Toyota 17%, Chrysler 15%, with the other two the same.

    Which means it is only a few short years until the original Big 3 control less than half the U.S. market.

    And I think the numbers you have there will be fairly stable. Honda and Nissan will nip at Toyota's heels too much for it to advance much beyond there in market share, while the spiral downwards for Ford and GM will finally stop around that point.

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • carlisimocarlisimo Posts: 1,280
    I think you forgot about Europe when you mentioned Ford's irrelevance in the rest of the world. It's not a growing market, but Ford has potential for growth into higher profit segments there.
  • So let's not take our biases too far. Back to a neutral corner.

    From that NBC special, I think Chrysler has something in the Caliber. It's a step up from the Neon anyway. Can't lose thur! :)

    DrFill
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    Heck, Ford has potential for growth into higher profit segments RIGHT HERE in the good ol' U.S. of A! At any time in the last decade or more, they could have chosen to FINALLY take the Lincoln marque seriously again. The best we got was the LS, which wasn't bad, but was almost instantly passed by the market.

    No, I didn't forget Europe.

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • au94au94 Posts: 171
    Difficult question to answer. Do you look at sales, profits, utilization of capacity, who has the best looking cars?

    If so, I'd say Toyota wins in 3 of those 4 categories.

    Over the next 10 years, the challenge for Ford and GM is to execute on the plans they have recently laid out for recovery. All the while continueing to preserve (at a minimum) market share and gain some with the new upcoming models.

    Chrysler needs to maintain the buzz they have generate over the last several years with their sucessful products like the PT Cruiser and 300. I still think Chrysler is fighting the poor quality stigma from years past.

    I don't think Toyota will ever overtake any of them for overall US market share leader. Fleet sales will save the Big 2.5 there.

    I do think there's hope, particularly on the Ford side. The will not let the truck market go without a fight. Same with the Explorer. Of course if gas prices keep going up, it may be out of their hands. But the Fusion is a decent entry in the market, with a few life cycle tweaks it could be a competitor, and there is lots of potential at Lincoln. Similar to Caddy, they've got to reinvent themselves in the eyes of younger buyers that would normally go European or high end Japanese.
  • http://www.axcessnews.com/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=7757

    Domestic Auto Sales Drop Sharply in January

    (AXcess News) New York - According to the latest report on domestic auto sales by J.D. Power & Associates, US auto makers saw an 11 percent decline in retail sales through the first 15 days of January when compared to the same time period a year ago.

    GM and Ford retail sales declined when compared to early January 2005 with GM down 28 percent and Ford down 25 percent. DaimlerChrysler was also down 13 percent when compared to the same period in 2005. Among the nine multi-franchise new-vehicle manufacturers, Hyundai and Toyota have had the best retail performance thus far in January. Retail sales for Hyundai were up 19 percent and Toyota Motor retail sales were up 9 percent compared to the first half of January 2005.

    In addition to the retail sales increase, Toyota had the highest retail share in the industry for the first 15 days of the month -- up 3.4 points versus a year ago to 18.8 percent. The domestic manufacturers follow Toyota with GM at 17.5 percent (down 4.2 points versus a year ago) and Ford Motor Company at 14.7 percent (down 2.8 points). DaimlerChrysler also saw a decline in the first 15 days of January to 12.8 percent (down 0.3 points). In contrast, American Honda, Nissan and Hyundai have all increased market share versus a year ago, with American Honda at 12.3 percent (up 1.4 points), Nissan at 8.6 percent (up 0.7 point) and Hyundai at 5.7 percent (up 1.4 points).

    .....
  • Similar reports have been coming out since the end of the Employee Price Wars, and with Toyota releasing the IS, LS, ES, Camry, Tundra, Rav4, and FJ Cruiser this year alone, this snowball could well turn into an avalanche!

    I'm surprised that Honda ia almost at 13%. I don't know why though.

    I guess the Sonata redesign has been a success! Wonder how the next Elantra will turn out.

    DrFill
  • German over-engineering is starting to pay off for Chrysler. I like the Charger, the Challenger looks cool, waiting for the Duster resurrection.
  • merc1merc1 Posts: 6,081
    waiting for the Duster resurrection

    LOL. I doubt we'll get a Duster due to Plymouth having being killed a few years back. This just brings to light how many old nameplates the domestics must have that they could bring back. I'm sure the list is endless!

    If Ford, GM or DCX could just get a hold of the Camry/Accord market with one car that could sell in those volumes they would be on the road to a real recovery. The 300 is the most impressive product from Chrysler in years, but they need the same type of success with their next generation mid-size sedans. These won't be engineered with help from Mercedes-Benz.

    GM? Well I don't know what to say. They're just plain ole too big. Too many models to keep updating and not nearly the money to do it. Ford missed a big chance at small car glory by not bringing over the European Focus. That said, Ford does seem to have some interesting products on the way for their traditional brands, after years of neglect spending the money on the PAG group.

    M
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    from Mercedes, the next generation of Chrysler midsizers will get lots of help from Mitsubishi. Gulp. I don't look for the same sales success for the next Stratus/Sebring as the 300 enjoyed. I hope at least the styling is distinctive.

    OTOH, in the longer term, other Chrysler stuff looks like it will be good and sell well - the Challenger, the Caliber, the new Jeeps, even the Imperial if that makes it to production. Dodge will need a new small sedan eventually though. Chrysler has to keep "bringing it" for a while yet if it hopes to rise in market share as predicted in this thread.

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • mirthmirth Posts: 1,212
    I see Chrysler on a down-tick at the moment. Their upcoming products don't really wow me (except possibly the Caliber). I think they got swelled heads over the success of the 300, lost their best people (Deiter, Wolfgang) to Germany, and now aren't sure what to do (a 300 minivan! a 300 roadster! etc etc).
  • explorerx4explorerx4 Central CTPosts: 9,614
    i know it is a 'critical' success, but how many are actually sold? anyone have numbers?
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    way more than the old 300M.

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • mirthmirth Posts: 1,212
    I think the 300 sold 150K units last year. Respectable, but not company-saving. Heck, the Mustang sold 160K. The real problem is that I don't see any of Chryslers upcoming cars having the success of the 300, and some I think are a big step backwards (Aspen). The Caliber will likely do well, but it won't be the big hit the 300 will.

    I think Chrysler is too busy patting themselves on the back and not looking enough to the future.
  • lemkolemko Posts: 15,120
    ...but to really draw me away from Buick or Cadillac, Chrysler has GOT to release the Imperial! Speaking of Imperial, "Collectible Automobile" has an excellent article about the 1969-73 Imperials in its April 2006 issue that's already out.
  • boaz47boaz47 Posts: 2,746
    Has always been an on again off again company. I happen to like many of their designs and think they have some of the best "looking" cars out there right now. Toyota impresses me with their dependability. They just don't have many vehicles that cause me to take a second look. I would rate them differently depending on what I wanted a vehicle for. For weekend cruising and driving out to dinner I would go with Chrysler. Obviously I like Chrysler for a daily driver, I have a PT. I would pick a 300C with a hemi for my going out on the town vehicle. If I were commuting any distance I might look towards Toyota. For a Sports car I would look at GM. The Vette is in a class all by itself. Ford has the exotic I would love to have. They also build the Truck I like the best. I can't pick one company and call them my favorite. I just like cars and they all make cars.
  • habitat1habitat1 Posts: 4,282
    I'll go out to 2015:

    #1 Toyota - 25%

    #2 Honda - 20%

    #3 GM -15%

    #4 Daimler Chrysler - 12%

    As the post WWII demographic fades out of the marketplace, I believe the US domestic market share will continue to slide.
  • lemkolemko Posts: 15,120
    Did they drop off the map?
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