Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!





Has CAFE reached the end of its usefulness?

12223242628

Comments

  • steverstever YooperlandPosts: 39,964
    I still have a little trouble wrapping my head around this.

    "Stronger mileage and greenhouse-gas standards will boost variable profits and sales in 2020 for the auto industry worldwide, with the Detroit 3 seeing the biggest financial benefits. The Detroit 3's variable profit gains would garner more than half of all increased profits."

    Detroit 3 To Profit From Higher CAFE Standard (AutoObserver)

    image

    Moderator
    Need help navigating? stever@edmunds.com - or send a private message by clicking on my name.

  • benjaminhbenjaminh Posts: 1,675
    Hmmmm. That report didn't seem to say why the big 3 would earn more profits....But, I can see that with cars rapidly becoming more efficient and more advanced that "planned obsolescence" (even if it's planned in part by the gov't) might accelerate. If your 2020 Accord somehow gets 40 mpg hwy, you might want to ditch your 2012 that gets only 33 long before it wears out...? Wait, that's not big three, but you get the idea.
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    It would be nice to see fuel efficiency standards ramp up to a level where they were similar to those already in place for years in Europe and Asia....

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • benjaminhbenjaminh Posts: 1,675
    By 2025 you should get your wish--if we all live that long! As you've probably heard, the feds are planning to push CAFE mpg from c. 35 in 2017 (which is really only 26 combined in the new, more realistic epa calculation) to c. 50-60 mpg by then. My rough in the head calculation is that a 50 mpg CAFE, which is maybe about 38 mpg in the new system, will give almost all of us smaller cars with smaller engines. A lot more hybrids too. In other words, new cars will look closer to what they are in Japan and Europe in about a dozen years.

    Maybe we'll have to start eating better and exercising more to fit in our smaller cars...?
  • benjaminhbenjaminh Posts: 1,675
    if man is still alive, if woman can survive, they may fiiiiiind~
    at their local Honda dealer

    A 2025 Civic that's about the size of a 1998 Civic. But it will get maybe 50 mpg on the highway, even without a hybrid, because it might have something like a 1.2 liter 4 cylinder VTEC-i3 engine with direct injection that's maybe even a turbo. Just a guess.
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    A future to look forward to indeed! :-)

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • benjaminhbenjaminh Posts: 1,675
    LaHood on 2025 fuel standards: 'We want to get it right'
    David Shepardson/ Detroit News Washington Bureau

    Washington — Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said today he is optimistic regulators and automakers can reach agreement on new fuel efficiency standards for the 2017-2025 timeframe.

    In a Detroit News interview today on the sidelines of an event on Egypt, LaHood pointed to the May 2009 ceremony in which automakers backed a big jump in corporate average fuel economy requirements, or CAFE standards, for the 2012-2016 model years.

    "Our people are very professional at this. I think we proved that with the last CAFE standard. We got it right because we had every car company standing in the Rose Garden with the president," LaHood said. "We want to get it right this time and when we hit the target we'll let everybody know what it is."

    The White House told U.S. automakers last week it was considering requiring a fleetwide average 56.2 mpg for cars and light trucks by 2025 — a move that could add at least $2,100 to $2,600 to the price of cars. But regulators say owners would recoup the higher upfront costs in 2.5 to 3.5 years via fuel savings.

    From The Detroit News: http://detnews.com/article/20110628/AUTO01/106280401/LaHood-on-2025-fuel-standar- ds---We-want-to-get-it-right-#ixzz1QgAC8cp7
  • benjaminhbenjaminh Posts: 1,675
    LaHood on 2025 fuel standards: 'We want to get it right'
    David Shepardson/ Detroit News Washington Bureau

    Washington — Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said today he is optimistic regulators and automakers can reach agreement on new fuel efficiency standards for the 2017-2025 timeframe.

    In a Detroit News interview today on the sidelines of an event on Egypt, LaHood pointed to the May 2009 ceremony in which automakers backed a big jump in corporate average fuel economy requirements, or CAFE standards, for the 2012-2016 model years.

    "Our people are very professional at this. I think we proved that with the last CAFE standard. We got it right because we had every car company standing in the Rose Garden with the president," LaHood said. "We want to get it right this time and when we hit the target we'll let everybody know what it is."

    The White House told U.S. automakers last week it was considering requiring a fleetwide average 56.2 mpg for cars and light trucks by 2025 — a move that could add at least $2,100 to $2,600 to the price of cars. But regulators say owners would recoup the higher upfront costs in 2.5 to 3.5 years via fuel savings.

    From The Detroit News: http://detnews.com/article/20110628/AUTO01/106280401/LaHood-on-2025-fuel-standar- ds---We-want-to-get-it-right-#ixzz1QgAC8cp7
  • benjaminhbenjaminh Posts: 1,675
    LaHood declined to comment on the 56.2 mpg figure.

    The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and Environmental Protection Agency want to complete a draft of the standards and send it to the White House Office of Management and Budget by the end of July.

    LaHood said the goal is another Rose Garden ceremony with automakers.

    The figure would require average an annual increase in fuel efficiency of 5 percent, but regulators have told automakers they will "backload" some of the steepest increases to the later years — when electric vehicles may be in wider use.

    From The Detroit News: http://detnews.com/article/20110628/AUTO01/106280401/LaHood-on-2025-fuel-standar- ds---We-want-to-get-it-right-#ixzz1QgAb9Zi1
  • benjaminhbenjaminh Posts: 1,675
    56 is a very high standard. But, keep in mind that 56 would be as calculated in 1975, which was more of a steady state driving at slower speeds without AC. I'm not sure, but I think in today's numbers a 56 would be more like a 46. And given that we already have a Hyundai Elantra that gets 40 mpg on the highway here in 2012, getting to 46 in a dozen years doesn't seem that bad....
  • benjaminhbenjaminh Posts: 1,675
    But getting to 56 is harder than I made it sound. 56 is an average for all companies combined, and for cars and trucks combined. What this probably translates into is a standard of c.60 for cars and c. 45 for trucks/suvs. In today's numbers that would be maybe 50 for cars and 35 for trucks. Tough, but doable, I think.
  • benjaminhbenjaminh Posts: 1,675
    edited June 2011
    I can pretty much already see how this could be done, and I imagine most manufacturers can too. It's a tough standard requiring many hundreds of billions of dollars to completely re-engineer every vehicle, but I think it could be done.

    First, as mentioned 56 by the 1975 CAFE standard is really more like 45 by today's mpg numbers.

    Take a car just slightly larger than the Mazda2, put a 1.0 liter skyactiv engine in it plus hybrid engine, etc., and you're looking at a car that gets c. 65 mpg by today's numbers. That translates into c. 80 mpg when it comes to CAFE. With manufacturers putting millions of those cars out it will then be possible to still make a midsize to large sedan (Honda Accord etc.) vehicle that's slightly smaller than today's model, which by that time will itself be getting maybe 35 mpg by today's numbers. These two kinds of cars (plus many others in between) will balance out to get to the CAFE number suggested by 2025.

    You'll still even have room for some large trucks, SUVs and large luxury sedans. They will likely be powered by large 4s or small 6s that get strong mpg.

    I may be the only one here, but I think this CAFE goal is good. It might help get OPEC off our back somewhat. It should also moderate fuel prices, and might even keep them more or less stabilized at $4-7 a gallon or so in real terms for the next 20 years, rather than allowing prices to skyrocket to $10 or more.

    By real terms I mean that in 2025 gas may be c.$8 bucks a gallon, but adjusting for inflation it'll be more like 5 or 6 in today's dollars.
  • steverstever YooperlandPosts: 39,964
    edited July 2011
    There's going to be a live chat Tuesday (7/26/2011) at noon Eastern at http://bit.ly/njcjbG with the Union of Concerned Scientists, National Automobile Dealers Association and Edmunds.com re: fuel economy issues such as CAFE.

    Moderator
    Need help navigating? stever@edmunds.com - or send a private message by clicking on my name.

  • benjaminhbenjaminh Posts: 1,675
    edited July 2011
    Seems we've been way above the wimpy standard for years now. Nice work by Jeremy Anwyl:

    Raising CAFE Reasonably
    By Jeremy Anwyl July 20, 2011

    http://www.autoobserver.com/2011/07/raising-cafe-reasonably.html

    That bar chart is interesting. We were way past CAFE even in 2005 (30 mpg compared to 27.5 required). This year we're at 33.4 compared to 30.2 required. CAFE doesn't even start to get us above where we are now until 2014, when the standard moves to 36. But my understanding is that car companies can use "credits" they earned in going over the standard some years to fill in gaps when they don't quite meet the standard in later years.

    And, of course, 36 sounds good, but that's according to the pathetic 1975 standard. By today's EPA measurement that is probably more like 27. Where's a conversion calculator?

    Still, there is progress in the right direction. By 2016 we need to get to 39, which is more like 30 by today's measurement. But in percentage terms it's a significant improvement.
  • benjaminhbenjaminh Posts: 1,675
    edited July 2011
    This is very good news, I think. Although 54 mpg really means an mpg of about 39 combined by the EPA's current (and more accurate method) of measuring mpg. But 39 combined is a major improvement over where we are today. There will still be room for large cars, SUVs, and trucks. And there's even a special exclusion for work trucks.

    from autos insider Detroit News:

    Carmakers likely to back new fuel rules
    '25 standard expected to be dropped from 56.2 to 54.5 mpg
    David Shepardson/ Detroit News Washington Bureau

    Washington\ At least five automakers are expected to endorse a dramatic boost in fuel efficiency requirements to 54.5 mpg by 2025, two people briefed on the matter said Tuesday night.

    General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co., Chrysler Group LLC \ along with Asian automakers Honda Motor Co. and Hyundai Motor Co. \ are expected to announce their support for a revised proposal by the Obama administration to dramatically hike fuel-efficiency standards, the two auto officials said.

    The decision to back a framework came as the White House slightly softened its proposal to boost fuel efficiency standards to 54.5 mpg \ down from 56.2 mpg \ by 2025 as it races to reach a deal as early as today, a person briefed on the matter said.

    Before car makers formally sign off on the pacts, some key details remain to be worked out before automakers approve the agreements. The White House is expected toprovidemore details of the framework agreements in writing toautomakers today.

    The new plan calls for hiking fuel efficiency for light trucks 3.5 percent annually from 2017-21 \ and then 5 percent from 2022-25. It would hike car fuel efficiency 5 percent annually over the period. It also carves out special rules for "work trucks" \ heavier light-duty vehicles used for construction.

    Several major automakers are leaning toward endorsing a White House compromise.

    From The Detroit News: http://detnews.com/article/20110727/AUTO01/107270331/Carmakers-likely-to-back-ne- - w-fuel-rules#ixzz1TJDqq2rn
  • benjaminhbenjaminh Posts: 1,675
    edited July 2011
    --should start slowly but surely getting OPEC off of our backs. Even a few years before 2020 it should start re-orienting the supply/demand equation back in our favor, which should moderate the increases in fuel prices

    --less pollution

    --better cars. I imagine all car companies will be hiring lots of engineers in a crash programs (which are already underway) to get this done. ICE vehicles should be better in almost every way, although admittedly more complicated. My guess is that hybrids will only be at c. 10%-20% or so even in 2025. Most of this can just be done with better gas engines, better transmissions, and lighter vehicles...
  • benjaminhbenjaminh Posts: 1,675
    Mazda joins other automakers, endorses 2025 White House fuel deal
    David Shepardson/ Detroit News Washington Bureau

    Washington- One of the holdout automakers opposing a White House plan to hike fuel efficiency requirements to 54.5 mpg by 2025 reversed course today.

    Mazda Motor Co. said it has decided to back the proposal that will raise fuel economy by passenger cars by an average of 5 percent annually from 2017-2025. The proposal will increase light truck efficiency requirements by 3.5 percent annually from 2017-2021, and 5 percent from 2022-2025.

    The company had told a White House adviser, Heather Zichal, on Tuesday night it didn't plan to support the plan. But this Thursday morning, Mazda's director of government affairs, Barbara Nocera, said the automaker will support it.

    "We have done a further evaluation of the CAFE proposal and this morning informed the White House that we can now support the proposal," she said.

    Honda Motor Co. also praised the plan and is supporting it, as are Detroit's Big Three automakers, Toyota Motor Corp., Nissan Motor Co. and Hyundai Motor Co. Some European automakers are still considering the proposed deal.

    "Honda is proud to have actively worked with the administration as they developed their proposed national fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions standards," said John Mendel, executive vice president for sales for Honda's U.S. unit. "Honda embraces this challenge, which will be good for our customers and for the environment, and we welcome the competition we will have with other auto makers that will result from these new standards."

    The plan gives generous credits to hybrid light trucks; some foreign automakers complain the deal is tilted in favor of Detroit automakers that build lots of SUVs and pickups, and could even encourage them to produce more trucks, rather than more fuel-efficient passenger cars.

    President Barack Obama will unveil the framework of the plan Friday, at an event with auto executives and United Auto Workers President Bob King at the Washington, D.C., convention center. The White House initially wanted 56.2 mpg by 2025, but softened the proposal and added more credits to appease automakers, including for making air conditioning improvements.

    They also include credits that currently don't count in fuel efficiency testing, such as advanced grilles and solar roof cells.

    It has also agreed on a midterm review before the 2022-25 standards kick in. Under the deal, automakers will be able to seek judicial review of the final standards under certain conditions. If the federal government determines that the final years' standards aren't achievable, California could seek permission to impose tougher requirements.

    The White House and California will unveil formal proposals by the end of September. The federal government wants to finalize the rules by July.

    The deal would extend a May 2009 agreement that boosted fuel efficiency standards to 34.1 mpg by 2016, costing the auto industry $51.5 billion over five years. California agreed not to impose state standards, joined by a dozen other states, through 2016.

    From The Detroit News: http://detnews.com/article/20110728/AUTO01/107280444/Mazda-joins-other-automaker- s--endorses-2025-White-House-fuel-deal#ixzz1TPktRJYF
  • benjaminhbenjaminh Posts: 1,675
    And so the major holdouts are Mercedes and BMW.

    Why is everyone so quiet on this? This is the biggest news to hit autos in years. We now have something of a crystal ball up to 2025...
  • benjaminhbenjaminh Posts: 1,675
    I think there should be more transparency too. And although it seems like a huge step in the right direction, the rules seem very complicated:

    A Letter To The EPA
    By Jeremy Anwyl July 28, 2011

    I sent a note to Lisa Jackson, the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Wednesday because I am a bit annoyed. The latest word on the ongoing saga of the proposed new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards is that there will be an event in Washington, D.C., this Friday to announce an agreement between the EPA, the Obama Administration and major car companies on the proposed standards for 2017 to 2025. The car Letter to the EPA.jpgcompanies contacted by Edmunds’ Autoobserver.com were quick to point out in interviews Wednesday that an agreement is close, but has not yet been inked. And not every car company is going along.

    This strikes me as a bit odd. If there were indeed agreement, then the standards would not be proposed, would they?

    That’s the rub. Consumers, who weren’t invited to the negotiations, will finally have the opportunity to be heard after the standards are made public and before they are finalized Sept. 30. But does anyone seriously think the EPA will be open to changes after a “deal” with the car companies has been reached?

    I made some points about CAFE last week. How does the latest version of the “proposal” rate? I can’t really say. The leaks and rumors suggest it will be far too complex. And what exactly does the idea of a review around 2017 actually mean? I guess we will have to wait until Friday.

    Meantime, here’s a copy of the letter sent the EPA:

    Dear Administrator Jackson,

    I heard today that there will be an announcement this Friday on an agreement between the administration, the EPA and major car companies as to proposed new CAFE standards for the years 2017 through 2025. Rumors have been swirling about these proposed standards for weeks. We at Edmunds.com (http://www.edmunds.com)
    have been fielding numerous calls looking for comment, particularly as it relates to the impact of the proposed standards on consumers.

    Good questions are being asked, but as details about the proposed standards are indeed rumors, it has been hard to respond. Our calls to the EPA looking for official details have gone unreturned. The automakers have told me they have had to agree to secrecy as a condition for being included.

    I understand the politics of being able to announce proposed standards at a press event with the major car companies in attendance. But there is a dark side as well. The optics of negotiating a deal in secret are horrible. Perhaps most disappointing is that you have conferred with environmentalists and with automakers, but neglected car buyers - the very consumers who will be asked to buy this new generation of vehicles.

    Consumers are voicing real concerns. How will their choices be limited? Will prices rise? By how much? Adding to this angst is the sheer complexity of the proposed standards. Shouldn’t a goal of any new standards be that they are easy to understand? Presumably individual consumers can weigh in after the proposed standards are actually announced. But it stretches reason to the breaking point to think that any consumer concerns will be taken seriously after a deal has already been struck.

    President Obama campaigned that he would bring transparency to Washington. Judging by this process, I can only conclude that his administration still has not lived up to this promise.

    Sincerely,

    Jeremy P. Anwyl
    CEO, Edmunds.com

    Jeremy Anwyl: is the Chief Executive Officer of Edmunds.com.
  • benjaminhbenjaminh Posts: 1,675
    http://www.autoobserver.com/2011/07/cafe-players-settle-on-545-mpg-for-2025.html-

    CAFE Players Settle On 54.5 MPG For 2025
    By John O'Dell July 28, 2011

    CAFE 2025.jpg

    In a deal that likely will become a major plank in President Obama's reelection platform, the White House reportedly has hammered out a deal with major automakers that will – at least for now – establish a 54.5 mile-per-gallon Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standard for passenger vehicles in 2025. That would be equal to an EPA "window sticker" fuel economy rating of about 40 mpg. A formal announcement is scheduled to be made by the President on Friday, but as of late Wednesday, according to one automaker involved in the talks, there had not yet been a final agreement presented for industry and government representatives to sign off on. Still, it is unlikely at this stage that the deal being widely discussed in Washington and Michigan won't happen.

    What is known is that the agreement calls for a 5 percent annual increase in passenger car fuel efficiency from the 2017 through 2025 model year, which would result in a nearly 60 mpg CAFE standard for cars. Light trucks, including pickups and SUVs, will be treated differently, subject to a 3.5 percent fuel economy increase each year through 2021 and then a 5 percent hike in subsequent years. The lower standard for trucks pulls the overall fleetwide average down to 54.5 mpg in the 2025 model year. While automakers aren't talking for publication, several -- including BMW and Mercedes-Benz, reportedly are unhappy with the break given to the truck segment, which still makes up a large part of the domestic auto industry's portfolio. Toyota Motor corp., which initially had reservations about the deal and could have been a big stumbling block to Obama's hopes of quick industry agreement, reportedly has had its concerns addressed and now is ready to support it. Still unclear is whether the deal will permit automakers to classify crossovers -- SUV-styled vehicles built on automobile platforms rather than on truck chassis -- as trucks, thus reducing their fuel efficiency requirements....(more at the link)
Sign In or Register to comment.