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What to expect from the next model year Prius

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Comments

  • Kool, sign me up! I wonder if the optional windmill will fit under most bridges?;)
  • ck90211ck90211 Posts: 129
    I think 2010 or later is more realistic. Few reasons. (1) Upcoming hybrids (TCH, Sienna, RAV4, Sequoia?, 4Runner?) will eat up all capacity/manpower of Toyota suppliers. So very tough to introduce another technology/platform. Not to mention potential quality problem. (2) Even though Prius II is 4 years old, it is still new in much of Asia/Europe who are paying $$$ for gas. So what Americans don't buy Asians/Europeans will gladly buy them at even higher prices. I saw low-end Prius being sold in Taiwan, Hong Kong for nearly $40K. (3) Toyota (Japanese for that matter) never introduce new products/technologies outside of Japan. So to see any new hybrid platform/Prius in the US, wait at last 1-2 years after Japan gets it. Since Japan does not have it, add another 1-2 years. (4) Toyota is also listening closely to petro companies/OPEC/Russia to see where prices of petro would go. If gas prices in US goes below $2 sustinably, most of us won't be driving hybrids. So you got all these forces working against a late 2008 (2009 model) intro. I say it would be 2010 or 2011. By then, I should be passing my Prius to my kids, then time for a new Prius.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Posts: 7,160
    I think 2010 or later is more realistic. Few reasons. (1) Upcoming hybrids (TCH, Sienna, RAV4, Sequoia?, 4Runner?) will eat up all capacity/manpower of Toyota suppliers

    Wow what a plateful.

    The TCH is here already and the Sienna could be expected in 2008 as a 2009 model since the Estima exists already.

    The RAV? Possibly

    The Sequoia and 4Runner. Nope, they are trucks. Until the hybrid Tundra is shown the two SUV's will be somewhat later, if ever.

    Bet on this: Gen3 Prius in late 2008 as a 2009 model.
  • grandtotalgrandtotal Posts: 1,207
    The RAV? Possibly

    Not very likely, the RAV4 was not designed with an HSD powertrain in mind.
  • If Toyota is smart, and they usually are, they will cut short their plan to continue the roll out of HSD conversions and focus on plug-in. I, for one, sure hope this is their plan! :)
  • I would really like it if they had a desil prius, not desil electric hybrid, just a prius body with a desil engine. Or even a gasoline, e85, or hydrogen prius. I personally do not think the hybrids or even electric cars are exactly perfect. Just wait 7 years when you have to replace the whole battery system. Or wait, hasnt anyone told you prius owners that the batterys go bad after about 5-7 years? And just guess how much you have to pay? Upwards of $5000! That will take all the money u've saved on gas.
  • That's why there's such a need and focus on ensuring that the battery technology used in the making of a serial hybrid is capable of significantly more recharges than the current batteries used. By increasing the number of recharges possible, it takes the cost of replacement batteries out of the equation when we determine total cost of ownership.
  • How soon will hybrids like that be on sale?
  • PFFlyer@EdmundsPFFlyer@Edmunds Pennsylvania Furnace, PAPosts: 5,808
    Let's get away from discussing each other and get backto the vehicles please.

    This is supposed to be enjoyable right? ;)

    PFFlyer@Edmunds

    Moderator - Hatchbacks & Hybrid Vehicles

  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Posts: 7,160
    I personally do not think the hybrids or even electric cars are exactly perfect. Just wait 7 years when you have to replace the whole battery system. Or wait, hasnt anyone told you prius owners that the batterys go bad after about 5-7 years? And just guess how much you have to pay? Upwards of $5000! That will take all the money u've saved on gas.

    It's good that you qualified this by saying 'I personally...' because your opinion is not based on fact. You probably didn't realize that ...
    .. the warranty on the hybrid system ( battery pack ) is 10 yrs/150,000 miles in some states! 6/100,000 elsewhere!
    .. Toyota and DOE have tested NiMH batteries separately to 180K and 150K and found no deterioration in performance at all!
    .. There are no reports of Toyota battery packs wearing out at all. This is now the 7th year in the US so the 5 year period you mention is long gone.
    .. On Toyota's website they state that the batteries should last the life of the vehicle. Typically this is 12-15 yrs and 250,000 miles on any Toyota.
    .. Do a google on quotes from Toyota on replacing the battey pack. You'll come up with $3000 as of today. But none have ever been replaced.

    So if in 12-15 yrs which would be about the year 2018... and you still owned your faithful Prius... and finally the battery pack gave out at 200,000 miles. What would you do with a 12 y.o. car that had 200,000 mile on it? You'd do what every other owner does with any vehicle. Get rid of it and get a new one that will take you another 12/200,000.

    It appears that you've been out of touch with the automotive world for the last 2-3 years. There has been so much information/discussion all over the net about the life-expectancy of the battery pack being at least 10 years that this whole question has disappeared.

    But you do have the right to remain skeptical. In the 1490's skeptics like this were called 'flat worlders'. If you sailed too far west you would fall off the edge of the world. It's no different on the subject of battery life... drive too far and the batteries will die on you. It's just not true...in either case.
  • pathstar1pathstar1 Posts: 1,015
    While I agree with you kdhspyder that the battery pack is not that expensive and that it will last for a long time, there actually have been a few failures. Not really unusual to have some fail, and I believe it is around 10ish, out of I think over 35,000 in service. At any rate, most were replaced under warranty. Used battery packs can be had for around $500 (from wrecks). There are some Prius taxis out there with 250,000 km+ on their battery packs.

    One point the OP hasn't fully developed is the money "saved on gas". Don't buy a Prius expecting to recover some kind of extra cost money on gas. He/she should consider the following:

    First, it's difficult to calculate how much extra you are paying on the Prius for the hybrid components - there isn't a non-hybrid Prius to compare to.

    Second, you are operating the most fuel efficient vehicle commonly sold (now that the Insite is dead), with the lowest emissions. That alone is significant. Your carbon load on the environment will be as low as you can get it unless you stop owning/operating fuel propelled vehicles.

    Third, you can cost compare the Prius to other similar vehicles. As I have posted before, the Camry is very similar in cargo and interior room, and it's a Toyota. Oh look, a non-hybrid Camry costs about the same as a Prius!

    Fourth, many owners purchased the Prius because they wanted to be on the forefront of the new lower carbon load technology.

    Fifth, always remember the Prius is NOT an electric vehicle. It's a hybrid, powered exclusively by burning gasoline in an ICE where the hybrid technology allows:
    a) the internal combustion engine (ICE) to be operated in a much more efficient mode (Atkinson cycle). The electric components supplement the torque as required because the ICE, when operated this way has lower HP and torque.
    b) Capture of normally wasted energy (brake heat). This regenerative braking also extends brake component life - reportedly at least doubling it.
    c) Seamless shutdown and restart of the ICE at lights etc. to save fuel that would be wasted idling.

    It isn't a perfect design, but it's pretty good!
  • ok 1.

    Why would toyota admit to their battery packs failing? Wouldn't that come across as a biased opinion seeing how Toyota already tried to keep it on the D.L. when they had a massive recall on new 2006 models back in march? I admit to exaggerating the amount in the first message, but it is better than denying the problem all together. To me it doesn't matter the price or replacing the battery pack is or if it is covered under warranty. Because if it is not costing you, dont you think it would be costing the company (TOYOTA) every time they have to replace a $3000 battery pack?

    2.

    Where did you get that estimate? because it is very hard to find the answer to that question seeing as i asked it in another forum and only one person responded saying that he couldn't find that information anywhere. Everyone else in that forum ignored the question and kept talking about how great this technology is. Well it could be better. My friend has a new camry hybrid and is only getting mid 30's mpg. And my cousins regular diesel golf gets 800 miles to a tank of gas. Another diesel engine Vw is developing can get 52 mpg. If i am correct that is better mileage than the prius. So like i said in my very first message I would really like it if they had a diesel prius, not diesel electric hybrid, just a prius body with a diesel engine For some reason no one will respond to that part. Even though it could potentially get better mpg. But no, everyone wants to say how perfect their prius is now, and how electricity is the way to go. How do you think, in the US, most of electricity is generated? Not by dams, no by gas and diesel generators, so while you are driving your little electric car, think about how most of the electricity is being produced. So that is why there is such a big issue for alternative fuels for cars. So for once why dosn't the us do what the rest of the world does and use diesel engines?

    & 3.
    How many states offer 10 year warrenty? Because the six year doesnt cover a problem at 7,8, or even 9 years.

    I am sorry that i offended you, but think about how your supposed "plug in prius" is affecting the world around you. Trace the electricity chain back to where it began, the fossil fuel generators! If i am right you will be increasing the harmful gas output of your prius. Also those cars are estimated at over 40000 dollars. Do you really want to spend that much? So consider what I said carefully and please do not correct any spelling or grammar errors, because that is not the point of this message.
  • I also believe, as you quoted me, i said 5-7 years. Thats not long gone buddy, we're in the middle of it. Wait another year. Also what happened in their tests after 150K?
  • Though I only partly agree with your message, I do appreciate you providing us your perspective. I totally agree a diesel electric hybrid will be far far more efficient than current ICE electric combo. I wish Toyota would get on the diesel wagon and produce a smart hybrid with diesel in place of gasoline engine. The part I don't fully agree with you is generation of electricity part. Current Prius gets its electric "juice" from internal combustion engine and this electricity obviously does not use traditional generators. Once the plug in hybrid is produced, your concern will obviously kick in. About the batteries, no one has reported any problem as yet and there is no reason for this concern esp. with the second generation Prius. Why be skeptical when there has been no issue to date ?
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Posts: 7,160
    I didn't follow your replies because you confused a number of issues into the same point...so as best as I can understand...

    1. My own view is that Toyota, or any manufacturer, doesn't announce warranty repair work. Thus if a battery did fail for Toyota or Honda or Ford none of the three would announce anything they would just fix it.

    But... if it was a serious problem, the affected owners would be howling on the net like on the Camry transmission issues. It would be ALL over the net. The Internet is silent on this subject.

    Massive recalls on the 2006 Prius??? What are you talking about?

    2. I did a google search on the cost to replace a NiMH battery and one article quoted a Toyota spokeswoman as stating the price was $3000 but in fact they had never replaced one. Here's one link..NiMH batteries
    Excerpt:
    And Toyota claims that not one has required a battery replacement due to malfunction or "wearing out." The only replacement batteries sold--at the retail price of $3000--have been for cars that were involved in accidents. Toyota further claims that the nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) battery packs used in all Prius models are expected to last the life of the car with very little to no degradation in power capability

    You aren't seriously comparine a TCH to a Golf are you??? Please, be serious. A Prius is closer to a Golf and they both get about the same FE.

    3 I miswrote the warranties.

    In 45 States it's 8 yrs / 100000 miles.
    In the 5 CARB states it's 10 yrs / 150000 miles.

    Myself I am for a diesel hybrid that uses renewable biofuel.

    The reason that hybrids are so successful here is that until this year diesel fuel in the US was of the worst kind possible and most diesel vehicles didn't pass the CARB states emissions tests. As a result ALL manufacturers did not sell diesel in these states. But these are 5 of the biggest population states so if diesel can't be sold there then there's no use to sell it in the other 45 states. It's all or nothing. Hybrids are equal to diesel in saving fuel. That was the only way to put new fuel-saving technology into use in the year 2000. It could be sold in all 50 states, diesel could not.

    Yes plug-ins use power generated by coal and diesel and nuclear sources. No one denies that. The big question is how much extra would a fleet of PHEV use. Last week the Federal Govt just published an article that 80% of all vehicles on the road now could be powered by the grid using offpeak capacity. The extra cost? The extra pollution, if any?

    Which cars are estimated at $40000? Conversions of the current Prius to PHEV cost about $10000 but the new Prius in 2008 and the new GM PHEV are likely to be no more expensive than the current vehicles in the mid $20K range.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Posts: 7,160
    I totally agree a diesel electric hybrid will be far far more efficient than current ICE electric combo. I wish Toyota would get on the diesel wagon and produce a smart hybrid with diesel in place of gasoline engine.

    The stumbling block to make this viable has been the dirty diesel fuel in the US ( until this year ). There was no incentive to build a diesel hybrid because it couldn't be sold in every state. In 2009 it will be possible. In 2010 Toyota/Isuzu have already announced that they will have one.
  • toyolla2toyolla2 Posts: 158
    Path star you wrote...

    "........ always remember the Prius is NOT an electric vehicle. It's a hybrid, powered exclusively by burning gasoline in an ICE where the hybrid technology allows:

    a) the internal combustion engine (ICE) to be operated in a much more efficient mode (Atkinson cycle)....

    b) Capture of normally wasted energy (brake heat). This regenerative braking also extends brake component life - reportedly at least doubling it.

    c) Seamless shutdown and restart of the ICE at lights etc. to save fuel that would be wasted idling.

    It isn't a perfect design, but it's pretty good! "

    Well put, and to which I would add that good is not the enemy of perfect, either.

    The Prius is not about being an electric car but it is all about being an electric transmission.

    I find it annoying that those boutique energy suppliers of lithium ion are trying to hijack the Prius for their own commercial interests and basically PHEV it into an electric car with all this plug-in crap.

    The recapture of energy through regeneration when braking is much overated. The Prius is electronically limited to prevent more than 10Kw going back to battery. Ensures against the possibility of nasty battery explosions.
    This recapture for later use appeals to a lot of people.
    I do wonder how much recapturing actually goes on. If 80kw gets Prius to 60mph in 10 secs then 10kw regen would take it back to rest in 80 secs. And that's a long time, who's got that much patience ? Notwithstanding that natural forces will be dissipating quite a bit of that precious energy during this time.

    Now, for a lot less money, I could fit a 50kw resistor to dissipate this energy as wasteful heat instead. That way I can offload the brakes somewhat. Brakes by their very nature, I think most will agree, are the one thing above all others, except the oil in the sump of course, that has an obvious wear component. A 50kw brake would be much more efficacious. The $89 rotor grinding I just had would buy quite a lot of gasoline.

    Finally on diesel Prius. First,I want to see that diesel version start and stop frequently. Don't they smoke on starting ?

    Second, the Prius HSD may benefit from a higher torque engine - allows more direct power to the wheels - but assuming already 259lbs-ft comes from MG2 the addition of 128 lbs-ft instead of 57 lbs-ft previously is going to make acceleration only 25% better and that's until the engine needs to turn above 2400rpm. Then, even the turbocharged torque from this diesel will roll away, a 75% speed increase to top rpm will be typically followed by a loss of 32% in torque. That's assuming Toyota's engine to have the same characteristic as the smaller 800cc engine fitted to the Smart Fourtwo.

    T2
  • have you even read the latest magazines? In either motortrend, automobile, or car and driver, they had a little article about a plug in prius costing well above $40000 dollars. So who now is the one with their head not being in the "auto world" for the past "2-3 years"? If you seriously spent some time reading auto magazines you might find some new sources.

    And i wasnt comparing the golf to the prius. I was meerly showing that a diesil could be just as efficient and that a diesil electric hybrid could be even more efficient.

    And the toyota recall that was all over the news you somehow didnt hear about. What internet sites were you checking? It affected the prius and the camry. I am really beginning to think that your only sources are internet sites. Maybe you should take your eyes off the computer screne for a little while and read a book. It will do you good.
  • kdhspyderkdhspyder Posts: 7,160
    Up until now I took your posts as coming from someone who is unfamiliar with the HSD system. Now it seems you are making things up....

    have you even read the latest magazines? In either motortrend, automobile, or car and driver, they had a little article about a plug in prius costing well above $40000 dollars. So who now is the one with their head not being in the "auto world" for the past "2-3 years"? If you seriously spent some time reading auto magazines you might find some new sources.

    I read them all the time. There is no such article about a new plug-in costing above $40000. You are misreading the article - or making this up. It refers to modifying a current Prius with an aftermarket kit.

    And i wasnt comparing the golf to the prius. I was meerly showing that a diesil could be just as efficient and that a diesil electric hybrid could be even more efficient.

    No, you compared your brother's hybrid Camry to a Golf saying that the Camry only got in the 30's while you could get a diesel Golf which got in the 50's.

    And the toyota recall that was all over the news you somehow didnt hear about. What internet sites were you checking? It affected the prius and the camry. I am really beginning to think that your only sources are internet sites. Maybe you should take your eyes off the computer screne for a little while and read a book. It will do you good.

    Now this you are making up. There was no such recall on the Camry. Please just stick with facts. What there was on small Toyota cars ( including the Prius ) was a steering unit recall to reinforce the shaft. It was done on my 2005 and it took less than 15 min, cost nothing and was not an issue. This has nothing to due with hybrid systems or PHEV or diesel.
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