Luxury Lounge

dewey

Environmentalists are good people and good marketeers.

Have you noticed those National Geographic-type nature pictures on almost every single magazine ad for hybrids(Toyota, Honda and Ford).

On the radio I heard two different hybrid ads from Toyota and Honda. Although both radio ads were different they shared the same cricket and owl wildlife noises in the background.

Having said that my next car will most likely be either a hybrid or a diesel. It all depends on which drivetrain makes the most financial sense. Today a diesel makes most sense but I definitely think tomorrow's hybrids from Toyota/Lexus will make far more sense than they do today.

anthonyp

You are a well rounded individual....I was watching and waiting yesterday when I thought my eyes fooled me with the shap decline in a minute...It was like I guess eighty seven or so, when the specialists just walked away...I stupidly made a trade, but one trade just leads to another, and I have been trying to build a poosition in T...Made the short term money but screwed up my discipline....

Diesel may catch on here, but the tiny bit you get on your hand when fueling really goes a long way...I doubt I`l give it a try again....I would like to try out the hybred, but Tagman makes a good point about re-sale..Now you who keeps cars a long time may just get one and use it up...That would be interesting.....I found when I was thinking about the hybred, that where you really save the gas is in traffic or stopped for a light, as the motor shuts off....My wife got the bmw , as it was just overall better, but that is where I learned about the gas milage savings... it just plunges while you wait Tony ps Nice spot you got going here

dewey

Yeah thanks to D-Man for the design of this forum.
Sometimes I do like swerving a bit off topic from HELCs. I mean how many years of never-ending MB S Class vs. Lexus LS debates does it take to reach a conclusion

dewey

Here is an interesting rumor:

Daimler Could be Takeover Target


Washington DC February 27, 2007; The AIADA newsletter reported that experts told CNN that without Chrysler, the Daimler group could be an attractive takeover target for hedge funds and private equity groups. However, even for groups with plenty of cash on hand, Chrysler's pension and health care liabilities are still a significant deterrent. One investment banker said the likelihood of an unsolicited approach was still low but had gone up to 20 percent from 10 percent.
A rump Daimler - comprising Mercedes premium cars, commercial vehicles, and financial services - would probably be able to stay independent as long as it does not have to refinance Chrysler with several billion euros.
"They are obviously a group that doesn't have a protective shareholder so they can never be complacent," he added, noting a business hiccup could open the door to an unsolicited approach.
DaimlerChrysler declined to comment on prospects for being acquired if it divests Chrysler, but has said in the past the best defense against takeovers was good financial performance.

Source: link title

volvomax

I don't know that you would ever get the money back.
Auto companies aren't good investments.
Daimler would fight such a yakeover, and w/ Deutsche Bank in their corner would probably win.

dewey

Those electrical tooth brush and hair dryer testers are at it again. This time they have a list of their favorite picks. Apparently Sonicare makes the best electrical tooth brush and Infiniti makes the best luxury car.

Seems those good folks at CR have neglected to rank the higher end of luxury cars. Makes me wonder why? But one thing remains certain and that is these testers do prefer their Japanese green tea ice cream over a piece of German black forest cake or American apple pie

Consumer Reports Top Picks for 2007

Fun To Drive: Mazda MX-5 Miata
Small SUV: Toyota RAV4
Small Sedan: Honda Civic
Family Sedan: Honda Accord
Minivan: Toyota Sienna
Luxury Sedan: Infiniti M45
Midsized SUV: Toyota Highlander Hybrid
Green Car: Toyota Prius
Upscale sedan: Infiniti G35
Budget Car: Honda Fit

anthonyp

Kirk K might step back in..That would be interesting....Although I have great respect for my union friends, it would seem as though they of all people would like to work out something...It really is a complicated problem--one I hope is solved---...It is a bit overdone, MB vs Lexus, but I enjoy the banter...It`s all fun, except when our comments are erased (I`m sure by accident ) Tony

hpowders

Wow! All Japanese picks from CR. What a shock!
You have to take it from whence it comes! :surprise:

brightness04

They did mention 5 series and A6 as viable alterantives to M45 in the luxury sedan category. As to why no HELC, well, since an apriori requirement is that the car has to be at least "average" in reliability ratings, there may not be another entry at all besides the LS, either due to truly bad reliabiity rating or too low sales volume to have sufficient data points to get a rating at all. CR was probably doing the Germans a favor not having a HELC category for top picks.

As to the toothbrush and hair dryer derision, well, apparently someone cared about CR ratings enough to read it and bring it to this forum. There's nothing preventing anyone from subscribing to CR and voting.

lexusguy

CR also recommended the S4 as a top fun to drive car in the entry-lux category.

volvomax

CR probably left out the HELC for 2 reasons. 1 No one who would buy such a car cares what CR thinks in the first place. 2 It is expected that a HELC would offer a superior driving/ownership experience.

dewey

The magazine found that Volkswagen leads in overall test performance, followed by Honda, BMW and Mercedes-Benz, Mazda and Nissan.

link title

Apparently CR thinks VW beats Porsche, Audi, BMW, MB, Infiniti, and Lexus in terms of performance. A company that produces mainly FWD cars ranked number one in terms of overall performance? What a joke!

The Toyota Prius ranked as the most satisfying vehicle overall for the fourth straight year based on the percentage of respondents who said they would buy the same model again, according to the magazine's annual car owner satisfaction survey. The Chevrolet Corvette again came in second.

So why did CR exclude the high end roadster category when the Corvette got the second best satisfaction ratings among all models evaluated by CR? Hmmm makes me wonder?

At least CR reports provide some comic relief. I do pity the reader who takes them seriously and chooses a car based on their recommendations.

volvomax

VW is first in CR's "performance", meaning the total criterion of their testing, not the cars driving ability.

What I dislike about CR is the inconsistency with their scores and how they recommend, or don't recommend a car.
They will recommend a car that got a lower score than one they don't recommend.

anthonyp

Although I do not think highly of some of CR reports, overall they do give a person somewhere to start with the hundreds of different things that are needed in a variety of situations....They have missed the mark on tv`s IMO, and largely cars, but still helpfull....Tony

volvomax

Yeah,
I bought a new Mitsu Eclipse in 96, CR blasted that car.
Never had 1 warranty claim, car ran like a champ.

anthonyp

Well I needed a little vacuum( one in each place)....they said `dust buster` or shark, I forget, anyway I baught one of each, and the one they thought the best, turned out the best, although they were both good...In that case they were right...Now on the otherhand I like Campbell Soup, and the one they like I haven`t ever heard of...The only way to do the cars is test what you are looking for and believe in yourself..I also think our fellow posters have alot of knowledge to share....Tony

dewey

Below is a blurb from the Wall Street Journal today.

As I said before increased government emissions regulations worldwide and the greening of the consumer will favor hybrids over diesels. BMW and MB are feeling pressured to act especially now with Toyota/Lexus being far ahead in terms of its hybrid technology. Clean diesels are wonderful but unfortuantely they do not have the marketing flair as hybrids.

SOURCE:WALL STREET JOURNAL

Under pressure from European Union lawmakers to reduce average carbon-dioxide emissions of their cars, the auto makers said they plan to bring the new system into commercial operation within three years.

BMW, the world's biggest premium-car maker by sales, competes directly with DaimlerChrysler's Mercedes premium brand. The German companies said the deal wouldn't affect the identities of their brands, because the systems would be tailored to fit different vehicles.

"This collaboration will allow the two companies to share their extensive know-how and to achieve increased efficiency through economies of scale," the two companies said in a statement.

In terms of hybrid technology, the two car makers lag behind Toyota Motor Corp.'s Lexus premium brand, which already sells premium vehicles with hybrid engines that switch between electric and gasoline- or diesel-driven transmissions. Executives at German car makers have long been skeptical about hybrid technology, but pressure from EU lawmakers and the success of Toyota's hybrid cars with consumers are changing their minds.

BMW and DaimlerChrysler's cooperation deal is for a so-called mild hybrid system for rear-wheel-drive vehicles. Hybrids are powered by electric motors and gasoline- or diesel-driven transmissions. Mild hybrids draw less power from the electric motor than full hybrids. Mild hybrids are less expensive to develop than a full hybrid and offer greater fuel-efficiency than traditional engines -- but don't offer the same fuel-consumption savings that a full hybrid offers.

Thursday's deal extends cooperation between BMW and DaimlerChrysler at the Hybrid Development Center in Troy, Michigan. The two car makers also collaborate with General Motors Corp. at the center.

ljflx

There will be no mass buying of diesels in the US. No chance whatsoever. It's not even on the radar screens of 99% of the folks here. The technology invstments that hybrids have, and the continual improvement of batteries in the future make this a foregone conclusion. If you are going to drop a $100K on a car and are worried about future value than that worry needs to be placed on buying a $100K diesel not a $100K hybrid.

This is again what I mean about future high investment costs facing MB and BMW or any niche player, and why consolidation is inevitable. They are fierce competitors and need to share because of being behind and the big bucks that are required. It'll get much worse with evolving drivetrain changes that require much heavier LT investments. The latter will be even more complicated due to Government involvement and potentially a whole world regulation standard by a group of governments. Co-operation between fierce competitors doesn't work well or last in most situations. Didn't BMW already pull out of the diesel cooperation?

volvomax

Well, if that isn't the triumph of style over substance.
Why bother with a "mild" hybrid at all?

houdini1

IMO one of the few reasons to like BMW and Mercedes is for their diesel engines. I just might buy one of those at some future time. I would never even consider a hybrid from either of these Marques or from Toyota either. I would be very disappointed to see them get into the hybrid business.

dewey

I myself can see the positive prospects of hybrids in the future. BUT I beg to differ with your statement below:

If you are going to drop a $100K on a car and are worried about future value than that worry needs to be placed on buying a $100K diesel not a $100K hybrid.

Why? Because of the same reason you had pointed out about hybrid improvements. Hybrid technology is likely to radically change in the future which will cause faster obsolesence for the 100K hybrid car versus the 100K diesel(a technology that is not radically changing).

dewey

Welcome Houdini,

although I do disagree with your negativity about hybrids. There is nothing wrong with a new technology especially if it has the potential to improve mileage, emissions and performance.

houdini1

Thanks for the welcome. I sometimes like to stray off topic myself. Maybe we can do that a little more here.

I am just a slow adopter and like to keep things simple. I don't like the thought of all those batteries or electric motors on each wheel, etc.

tagman

There will be no mass buying of diesels in the US. No chance whatsoever. It's not even on the radar screens of 99% of the folks here. The technology invstments that hybrids have, and the continual improvement of batteries in the future make this a foregone conclusion.

Ahh... but you are missing the next step... namely the diesel hybrid. The marriage of the clean efficient modern diesel to the latest electric technology will be even more efficient than the current gas hybrid... and gives major validity to modern diesel technology. Further yet will be the advantages of using bio-diesel fuel in those diesel hybrids.

But, before any major changes happen, however, you should all expect to see more ethanol in use for the majority of vehicles in the U.S. The majority of U.S. vehicles will still be powered by standard internal combustion engines for quite some time to come. Because of this fact I have invested a small percentage of my portfolio in the top ethanol-related companies. It's a slam dunk.

TagMan

ljflx

I can see a diesel hybrid eventually making it. But I wouldn't bet on it. I think by and large Americans distrust diesels and don't have much interest there. Over time and with hybrid being the driver I can see that changing. But I think the battery will play such a big role in the futue that the fuel side will be a lot less relevant.

BTW - good artcle on Audi in the today's NY Times. I've linked below. Enjoy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/03/automobiles/03audi.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

tagman

Yes, good write-up. I enjoyed it. The A5 Cabrio should be a nice addition, as well as the Q5. Personally, while I have been posting for quite some time that Audi was in the early stages of a large ascention in this market, I think some of the expectations are a little overly optimistic. The ending concept of "Intel inside" was cute.

TagMan

tagman

I think the battery will play such a big role in the futue that the fuel side will be a lot less relevant.

The latest nano technology and its role in batteries is a strong indication that there is more truth to that statement than many would expect.

TagMan

dewey

Ljflx,

Thanks for the Audi article.

To reciprocate I have linked this Toyota/Lexus article from Businessweek.

link title

dewey

I agree with you about diesels today and probably diesel hybrids tomorrow.
But what remains certain are hybrids/EVs will play a significant role in the future. The Chevy Volt was the one car that interested me most in the Detroit Auto Show (I wasn't at the show physically but at least I was there virtually). At this stage the Volt may be a pipe dream but at least GM is dreaming the right dreams.

Ethanol? Without switchgrass ethanol is nothing more than a government subsidized money pit. It takes a lot of energy to turn corn into ethanol. And a gallon of ethanol generates a fraction of the energy produced from a gallon of gasoline . And let us not talk about what ethanol is doing to agricultural prices and its affect on the environment( I read somewhere that the additional corn production will produce more carbon than what could could be produced by the oil industry).

dewey

And who are the key benefactors from ethanol?

Farmers. And democratic governments everywhere know how important farmer lobbies are.

tagman

The ehanol technology is already improving. Brand new plants are being manufacturered. Regardless of it's virutes and/or lack thereof, the industry is in a definate growth cycle, and that's why I'm investing. Believe me, I'm not trying to make a political statement on this issue, just going to earn a few bucks off of the trend for a short term.

TagMan

dewey

Pardon me for sounding a bit too abrasive. Nothing flares my anger more than the current prices of corn at a supermarket. If I was Mexican and ate tortillas everyday I would be even more angry.

anthonyp

Well Dewey

The farmer has had a poor go of it these last twenty years or so...The people have eaten well, but the processors have gotten all the cake.....I think the ethinol as a pure play is a poor one as it doesn`t have the btu, but if South America, Carabean, can become more self sufficient, and the U S can have a cleaner burning product and less oil imports--consequently less money for terrorism--then so be it...I would think a blend of maybe ten percent would work, and then the other benefits as an overall posture...Tony

designman

Have any of you guys been following Tesla Motors, the all-electric 2007 roadster that will be on the streets this summer and the sedan that is planned for the 2009 model year?

According to Tesla, the roadster does a 4 second 0-60, has a 250 mile range, top speed of about 130, weighs 2500 lbs, and costs about $2.50 for a fill-up from your own electrical outlets at home. That's about 1 cent per mile and equates to approximately 135 miles per gallon with gas engines.

It sells for $100K and the first 100 production models were sold with deposits paid at full price. They will be producing 800 the first year which is 07. It's built on the Lotus Elise platform and runs on lithium ion batteries which cost $20,000.

tagman

D-man,

I checked out all the data on the Tesla when I owned the Lotus Sport Elise. The Tesla is very close to the Elise, but with electric powertrain. I looked at it closely at the show. Still difficult to get in and out and visibility above the low windshield is as difficult, as is requires the same neck craning to see traffic signals, etc. For the money the Elise is a better buy at half the price.

TagMan

designman

Well if you consider the performance the price seems reasonable when compared with cars that it competes with on that level, especially if you consider that fuel and maintenance costs plummet with this vehicle, replacement batteries nothwithstanding. It also totally flips the bird at Mideast oil.

Anyway, I am interested in hearing what people think from a business perspective too. What's the future look like for this company and how does it influence other companies?

BTW, they're trying to get the sedan in at about $50K.

dewey

Designman,

from a business perspective Telsa's prospects are not too good at all.

Sooner or later sporty EV/hybrids with lithium batteries will soon be sold to the masses in the $30K range. Toyota's new hybrid sports car is just around the corner and the specs on that car does sound very impressive indeed.

A Telsa sedan at 50K$? Will this be a battery powered version of an existing sedan from another manufacturer? If that is the case then Telsa's prospects are cooked for good because what will stop that manufacturer from making their very own EV lithium battery powered sedan. When lithium batteries become more mainstream in autos then every other manufacuturer will be producing a sedan that most likely will be better than any vehicle Telsa can produce.

So where would that leave Telsa?

A roadster buyer would be better off with a Lotus at half the price as Tagman pointed out. And a sedan buyer would be better off buying a EV sedan from a big manufacturer at a lower price. That certainly is not a very good scenario for Telsa.

dewey

think the ethinol as a pure play is a poor one as it doesn`t have the btu, but if South America, Carabean,

You are correct. It is far cheaper to make ethanol from sugar cane than from corn and Caribbean/ Latin America areas are endowed with an abundance of sugar cane .Unfortunately in North America we are stuck with corn.

How's this for a dumb policy--Washington penalizes cheaper ethanol imports from Latin America/Caribbean (in order to protect expensive ethanol production in the USA) but promotes imports from the conflicted area of the Middle East. :sick:

designman

When lithium batteries become more mainstream in autos then every other manufacuturer will be producing a sedan that most likely will be better than any vehicle Telsa can produce.

I have the same question. Why was a startup company even needed? Why is no one else hitchhiking onto this in a more significant manner? The promise seems great. Something's not adding up.

anthonyp

I`m with you on how poor the policy on oil is, and the slowness of America to change things...On the other hand, I am for the farmer getting a boost on the price he or she gets for farming...I can tell you firsthand that it is a very expensive deal to grow corn, and with the occasional crop losses that happen, the price should be around five dollars a bushel ( I think that is fifty eight or sixty pounds)..The corn is just the basic part of say a `Frito`, and look at how many bags can be made with one bushel..As I say the farmer has had a bad deal these last twenty years..I do agree corn is not the best way to go, but you have to start somewhere...Tony

dewey

Why was a startup company even needed? Why is no one else hitchhiking onto this in a more significant manner? The promise seems great. Something's not adding up.

Good question? I can only guess the answer but here it is:

Lithium ion battery charged cars are still a unknown risk and a big multinational auto firm has more to lose than a start-up like Telsa. Think of the multi billinon $$$ lawsuits and settlements involved if those lithium ion batteries burn cars. No established auto maker wants a Firestone-Ford Explorer or burning Pinto problem?

Also Lithium ion battery powered cars are still too expensive to produce at sufficeint volume to justify such an endeavor by a large auto firm.

A start-up like Telsa has little to lose except for the dollars invested in this limited liability private corporation. This venture involves a Silicon Valley mindset " Win Big, Lose Big, let's move on to the next opportunity".

I think the rationale for starting up Telsa is the hope that it will be bought out by a large auto manufacturer. A high tech American auto firm without the legacy costs of the Big 3 may be a tempting acquisition for a foreign or even a domestic auto firm that wants immediate access to EV technology. Another viable option for Telsa is to become an automotive technology firm that provides EV services to other auto makers.

dewey

Anthonyp,

you definitely know more than I do about corn. But I think the best alternative fuel solution is a free market solution without government subsidies.

If government intervention is required then IMO the best way to reduce gas consumption and promote alternative energies would be to impose hefty taxes that will double the prices at gas pumps . Unfortunately no politician with any good sense of self preservation would ever propose such a thing.

anthonyp

Hi

I doubt I know anythin more than the farmer has had a poor deal these last twenty years...I think in effect what you propose, IF the government were to do anything,taxing the fuel would then create an environment where the alternate fuel would get developed..Again it would be a false environment, as the tax probably would be lowered , leaving the investor holding the bag....I am involved with a company that is now---this week- starting to produce bio deasel ...It took about twenty five million just for the two upgrading systems, and the company already had the grain handling facilities....My understanding is that we will get a big return for the next year and a half, then everything is in doubt...That really isn`t the way to make an investment, so it is doubtful that others will come out so good. Later Tony

tagman

You were saying the diesels won't happen?

Mercedes BlueTech and the BlueTech diesel alliance will happen and this will come from BMW.

BMW announces diesels are coming to US in 2008

TagMan

ljflx

Didn't say diesels won't happen. Heck they are already here in a very small amount. I said diesels will not be embraced by the American public (that's what I mean by won't happen) and that there is a distrust of them by a very large part of the population.

I had read that BMW had withdrawn from a diesel alliance with Mercedes. Is that the case or was there a bad data report on that?

dewey

Ok forget my tax prosposal. I am not running for politics anyways

dewey

had read that BMW had withdrawn from a diesel alliance with Mercedes. Is that the case or was there a bad data report on that?

BMW is going to develop their very own clean diesels for USA. They should be introduced in 08. So BMW is big enough to do such things on their very own.

In fact BMW is becoming so big that BMW US sales figures are about tied with Lexus US sales figures. Even better BMW sales are growing at double the pace of Lexus sales. Sooner or later the biggest global luxury auto maker will soon become number one in USA.

This is proof that BMW's organic growth is superior to any consolidation in the auto industry. Toyota and Honda have also earned their successes with organic growth while the consolidators like Daimler and Ford are currently suffering great bouts of indigestion that no Pepto-Bismol will be able to treat. :sick:

designman

This is proof that BMW's organic growth is superior to any consolidation in the auto industry.

Well I think Ljflx was referring to fuel alternatives and hybrids in particular with regard to "consolidation." I guess his point is valid if there is a spike in demand, fuel prices and stringent government regulations in which case everyone would be years behind Toyota.

ljflx

"In fact BMW is becoming so big that BMW US sales figures are about tied with Lexus US sales figures. Even better BMW sales are growing at double the pace of Lexus sales. Sooner or later the biggest global luxury auto maker will soon become number one in USA."

You use one month of figures as bible? BMW sales were down for 6-8 consecutive months last year vs 2005, grew only 2% over all of 2005 and they fell further behind Lexus then the year before. The large Feb shipments were sent in advance of their annual big lease deals that occur every March and April. I'm seeing some of the cheapest BMW lease deals I've ever seen advertised with 750LI's running $200-300 cheaper than LS460L's and 3 series advertised $50-$80 a month cheaper than IS250's. The Germans keep increasing their fleet size to grow sales. Take away MB's new vehicles last year and their same vehicle sales were behind 2005 levels. Audi's January looked great until you saw that it's same model sales were down from prior year. Making the real money is increasing same model sales figures, not expanding models to show growth. It's why retail businesses are evaluated on same store sales to see the real growth of the business.

And yes I was talking consolidation in reference to monster sized cap spending that will be needed in the future.

tagman

Sorry, lj, that I didn't totally understand your position on diesels. BMW decided to go their own way on the diesel assault that will start with model year 2008. The BlueTech alliance will do fine without BMW, because they will each spend marketing dollars in addition to the other, rather than what would have been consolidation. This will result in more money spent rather than less, which will further the modern diesel's exposure. Over time, the huge difference between the old clickety-clackety smokey diesel and the new modern, quiet, environmentally-friendly and powerful diesel will become known. That old distrust and lack of understanding will shift into a positive trend... because it won't be based on hype... it will be based upon a truly improved environmentally-friendly product that will deliver great performance and fuel-economy.

The cost "premium" and unusual driving dynamics associated with hybrids will not be as dramatic with the diesels either. Diesels will drive similar enough with only a small price jump. Example is the E-Class, with only $1,000 as the diesel price jump. As the new '08 EPA rating is introduced for '08 models, hybrids are expected to lose 30% of their fuel economy ratings, while diesels will actually benefit from the new rating system.

Even with the slim diesel choices out there, the last part of last year represented a larger percentage growth for diesels than for hybrids, even though that seems hard to believe.

2008 will just be the beginning. Europe is an example of what can happen, but we will never embrace the diesel the way they do, but we will embrace it a lot more than it sounds like you are expecting.

Do I think hybrids will go away? Not at all. As I have said, Toyota will live up to its commitment to provide a hybrid choice for practically every vehicle it sells, and they have the clout to generate hybrid interest and sales. Hybrids are here to stay for a while at least, and ultimately diesel hybrids could be the next logical marriage.

Fuel cells are a decade away, and ethanol will be mixed with gasoline in varying and increasing percentages.

That's how I see it.

TagMan