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The Stock Market and Investing

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  • cyclone4cyclone4 Posts: 2,255
    I may have hurt your feeling with my compliment on the Sun, the other day, and not your market calls

    Tony, the thought never crossed my mind. As I told you before, you are a wonderful human being and the world needs more people like you.

    This is a traders market, and I don`t trust it

    Everyone has different comfort levels. If you play the market, only risk what you can afford to lose.
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Posts: 2,255
    Well, I want to complain TO the Sun....absolutely missing here in NJ today!

    Well, the sun has been missing from much of the Midwest for about a week now. Harvesting is the slowest in history.

    Alas, I'm a buy and holder, probably one of the last. I kept everything pat throughout the holocaust and the ride was a doosie!!

    Keep the faith in this nation and you will be fine.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaPosts: 8,441
    This will carry the market to new highs again tomorrow.

    I am invested in the tech stocks, as you know, like Intel and Google and others. I also own financials, but... beware the financials. They are the ones that might put on the brakes... very soon. Maybe next week? Watch closely, so we can get out when/if the bad news comes. If it does happen, Tony will be sitting pretty. :)

    TM
  • circlewcirclew Posts: 8,245
    BTW, the earnings of Google, IBM, and I believe one other technology stock were outstanding this afternoon. This will carry the market to new highs again tomorrow. We need Len to now give everyone his expertise once again.

    As the W.O.O. would say: Not So Fast...Not SoFast...

    image

    AMD's results were also strong, with a much better than expected pro forma loss of 26 cents a share on a 22 percent sales decline to $1.4 billion. AMD shares fell 3 percent on the news, however.

    IBM's earnings of $2.40 a share and sales of $23.6 billion both topped forecasts, and the company raised its earnings guidance, but its shares slumped 3 percent in after-hours trading after services signings were less than expected.


    Regards,
    OW
  • 2001gs4302001gs430 Posts: 767
    have recently shared some of my huge winners with you guys, including AIG when it made that massive recent gain... I made six digits on AIG. And, I'm not just talking about predicting the Dow's average here...
    Cheers and congrats on your winner.
    OTOH, I did not pick up any of your recommendation as I am a bit fixated on acquiring some depressed real estate. Therefore my portfolio is on a steady march to paltry10-15% gain for the year (fingers crossed).
    Why do you think the financials are at risk?
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaPosts: 8,441
    Why do you think the financials are at risk?

    Well... it turns out my warning on the financials was a bullseye... within hours ahead of the bleeding.

    I already told you that the market's direction was based largely upon irrational trading, and not the concrete numbers... which we now see today. It's one thing to invest when there is a market sentiment, and ride the wave... but eventually the wave fizzles out and the real numbers present themselves... which is what is happening right now.

    I sold my stocks early this morning... all of them. I said yesterday that I would do that when the financials start their decent, and bring the market down with them. Now, the trickiest part is to determine if we are going to have that genuine correction, or if the irrational folks take this market back up higher than it should really be without a correction. At this point, I really want to see a major correction, and then get back in full force... but we'll see. If we don't see the genuine correction, I'll cherry pick a few stocks and work my way back in, and hopefully my timing won't be too far out of whack.

    I posted it here yesterday... "beware the financials" is what I posted... and today... bingo!

    TM
  • 2001gs4302001gs430 Posts: 767
    Got to give it to you tm, bullseye again...
    It looks like the December calls I wrote on BOA won't get called after all. :D
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Posts: 2,255
    Tag, there was a lot of talk/concern yesterday that the Bank of America report would not be at all pleasing this morning. Indeed it was a stinker and the market has been lower all day (but well of its lows at this writing).

    I only have a few stocks that I have been buying over the past 10 days and I am planning to stay with them right now. It is not a big investment. I also would like to see a decent correction, but the market has a way of fooling a lot of us.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaPosts: 8,441
    I gotta give you credit Charlie for the way you hang in there during all sorts of brutal market ups and down. I tend to get out when it's bleeding, and sometimes that's a good thing, but sometimes it's not, because getting back in is always the next thing to figure out.

    In spite of what you might think, I actually don't have the cast iron stomach for stocks that some folks have. As a result, about 50% of my entire portfolio continues to be in bonds... long term bonds that offer very good interest rates, because they were acquired back when the rate of return was pretty good, especially in contrast to today's interest rates. So... half of my investment strategy is exactly in line with Tony's approach. :)

    Now that I am out of stocks (once again), I am forced to consider which ones I think are good investments moving forward. As I look at the world, I see areas of growth as well as areas of sluggishness, and then I see that some stocks depend upon certain types of spending that just isn't likely to happen, and others depend upon spending that is very likely to take place.

    IMO, I see certain areas of healthcare as possiblities, but risky and perhaps too complicated for my understanding, due to the U.S. political climate with regards to the healthcare programs that are being tossed around our government. In addition, I see that the automobile industry is poised for a comeback, but it will be a different kind of comeback then ever before, due to the changing face of the world energy situation, changing consumer preferences and perspectives on automobiles and transportation, and the increasing trend towards more future-minded vehicles than the SOS. I also see certain sectors of technology as very good possiblities. And, I see certain select retail areas that are currently trendy, such as Vans footwear as an example, which is a part of VF Corporation (VFC), a stock I have owned recently and it has done very well.

    As a result, going forward, I am leaning first and foremost towards investing in companies related to the wireless mobile internet expansion that is literally starting to explode all around the globe. This will be my primary focus over the next few days... to pick those companies that I believe will be the "best of the best" key players in this segment. This is where I totally believe a lot of money can be made, especially if I do this well. So, I am going to give this a very serious effort. I am not just making general statements or market predictions here, as I will give you the exact names of the stocks I select, and I will put my money where my mouth is. (Then I will pray a lot...LOL.)

    After that primary investment segment, I will then look towards a few other areas. I'll probably add a little Ford again, which you already know is simply a personal favorite of mine, as well as only a small handfull of other stocks that I believe will be leaders in their segments, or rising stars. And frankly, that's it! That's all I want to do at this point. The rest just feels too risky to me right now.

    Anyway, that's my current position with regards to the market (subject to change... haha)... for whatever it's worth... just sharing my perspectives on this with you and the rest of the gang here that might be interested. :)

    TM
  • lexusguylexusguy Posts: 6,419
    As a result, going forward, I am leaning first and foremost towards investing in companies related to the wireless mobile internet expansion that is literally starting to explode all around the globe. This will be my primary focus over the next few days... to pick those companies that I believe will be the "best of the best" key players in this segment.

    Any ideas in mind yet for this sector? I've been watching telecom in general and dipping my toes in every now and then, but I've mostly avoided it as it seems like there's a lot more risk here than reward. For example, I got into Verizon just as they were starting to rollout FiOS and did pretty well, but left soon after because it was evident that Verizon was going nowhere, since then, the stock has taken a beating.

    I think a lot of broadband in the future will be wireless, particularly to rural areas that will never make financial sense to wire with fiber optics. I'm just not sure yet who's going to do it. WiMax by all indications is a dud. LTE? Maybe, but again who's going to really benefit?
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaPosts: 8,441
    Sure... In part, I'll be looking into the companies that manufacture the hardware and the internal components and semiconductors. I'm still not sure about the carriers. At one point I had some money in the cellular tower companies, but I need to follow up on that more closely at this point to see if it's a good idea any more. Also, there are things going on with regards to streaming TV into those handhelds, and there are companies involved with that at different levels... worth a look. The e-book thing is literally days away from becoming a more immediate trend with unknown results, but it could be a good investment in its earliest days. I guess I intend to uncover every stone I can and take a good look. It's hard to imagine Google stock going up more, but I think it could. I recently did well with it, and I'll be looking at it again. Netbooks might do well, and certain retailers might benefit, but I don't really know until I take a close look. As I mentioned here recently, I expect gaming to grow, both on the console level and the mobile level, so I'll be looking into that as well... but this is all too early for me to get specific. I need time. I'll give you specific names after I do more homework over the next several days.

    What's your perspective on all of this?

    TM
  • lexusguylexusguy Posts: 6,419
    What's your perspective on all of this?

    I definitely agree that hardware and chips are better than the carriers. I took a chance with Motorola back in March and did quite well there. They were staring death in the face, but I think their handset business has a shot at a comeback, now that they are finished with the umpteen RAZR variations. Motorola could become the premier Android phone builder. HTC knows what they are doing with WinMo, but their Android phones have been pretty underwhelming. I got into Broadcom at the same time as Motorola, and that's also been doing well.
  • anthonypanthonyp Posts: 1,857
    That certainly is a well thought out strategy, and clearly put.......I only wish all that thought could be used to make an investment, as it use to be ....As I have said, this is a traders market, and a person has to live with that, until times change.....On occasion I have made a decent trade, but really not much money in the whole scheme of thing, and also some poor ones, and they hurt more than the good ones :) Pride Cometh Before a Fall.....So I have taken a different approach---for me---these last nine months or so, and have gone the bond route......My thinking was and still is, if I can get a return of better than ten percent, and decide that is satisfactory, I have to leave alot on the table--IF-- I could trade and get twenty percent...Knowing the difficulty in trying to trade, I chose the lesser return....I hope that time shows, another more accustomed means to invest again, after doing the homework, and holding for a decent amount of time, and be rewarded for that...I do not plan on holding these etf for a long period of time, but neither do I plan on selling until I feel confident that there is a better chance, and the market isn`t rigged agains us----Remember Goldman is just waiting to take you down with their trading programs etc...Big Occupus(sp) sucking the life out

    Tagman you have made a huge adjustment, and have landed on your feet, so I congradulate you as a human being, and I sure wish I had an answer for a good trading strategy---other than doing what your `gut ` tells you......Tony
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaPosts: 8,441
    Tagman you have made a huge adjustment, and have landed on your feet, so I congradulate you as a human being...

    Tony, you consistently demonstrate so much class around here... and I thank you for your kind words.

    Without reservation, I agree there is now a large amount of risk in the stock market at this point, and that is why I am trying to be focused and very careful, as I don't want to get caught up in the "trading", as you have appropriately described it, IMO. I now feel more comfortable with market if I make a good "investment" in a rapidly growing segment of technology. That kind of stock purchase feels more legitimate to me... even though there is still risk.

    It is getting harder to justify many of the different share prices, as too many of them now seem overvalued. Yet, I do believe there are still some bargains and smart purchases out there.

    The more I think about it, the more I want to suggest that as I move forward, no one here should in any way consider my stock selections as any kind of recommendation... because I will be taking on more risk than before, and I wouldn't want anyone here to lose their hard-earned money because of something I posted here on this forum. I certainly am not a financial advisor, and I will just share some of my personal selections with all of you when I have determined what they will be. I recommmended my purchases to some of you in the past, but moving forward I am not going to recommend them... just share information. The advise you offered Sandman to consult with a financial advisor is good advise and I agree.

    Like you, I think fixed instruments are a great way to make money with reduced risk. As you know, if you are getting a return of 10%, then you will essentially double your initial investment in just a little over 7 years by doing absolutely nothing, and just staying the course. That's a very cool scenario, IMO. You are smart.

    Given the stock market's wild rides of the past decade, many folks have been severely burned by the market, and many innocent folks have lost their retirement accounts, or had them slashed into a fraction of their original size.

    And... I am now of the belief that the market may demonstrate periodic increased fluctuations for a very long time, possibly forever. Without some reasonable degree of steadiness or average increase over a long period of time... investors like Charlie (who just stay the course over the long run) can get seriously burned, because the timing for market entry and market withdrawal might not work in favor of the investor's actual life requirements. IOW, at the point in time that the investor needs the money to retire, for example... the market could be going through a serious downturn essentially wiping out the investor's retirement. The investor might not have the kind of time (many years perhaps) it would take for the value of his account to rebound.

    Anyway, I'm thinking that my future maximum amount of investment in the stock market might be somewhere around 25-40% of my total portfolio... with the other 60-75% in fixed instruments.

    In any event... I'll let you know which stocks I purchase next week, assuming I purchase some.

    Thanks again.

    TM
  • ljflxljflx Posts: 4,661
    I don't really buy into the Financials being at major risk. I'm not running to them but I don't buy the big risk scenario there and I'm still holding my Citi. Biggest mistake I ever made, well one of the biggest was selling Apple way too early. Got back in in around 170 but I sold at 128.50 on a stupid stop loss because I was going to be out of town. Kick myself bigtime for that one because it's the one company who's fundamenmtals are fabulous and I'm a fundamentalist at heart. Their Balance Sheet is unbelievable.

    I'm now convinced the S&P runs to 1200 and the DOW to 11,000. Beyond that we need financials to roar and housing to come back. The two ae self fulfilling. As housing comes back financial earnings may roar as write-ups of assets and lowering of reserves add paper profits in on a large scale. If that is delayed we probably go into a trading range.

    Tag - all along I've liked retail and tech and I bought mutuals in both sectors. I'm not a big individual stock bettor. I'll follow certain ones I like such as Apple, bet on them and bet tthe sectors. Tech is always the way out and retailers, especially lux retailers are usually the first to bounce back and do so in a big way.

    I'm noy a seller - not for awhile.

    BTW - Apple probably headed for $300. They are making all this money mainly from US holdings. Internationally they are just starting. Stock probably runs to 325+ in 12 months or less actually.
  • tagmantagman Malibu, CaliforniaPosts: 8,441
    Hey there... looks who's back! Len, thanks for the info. Actually, I got back in the market this morning, but in a very specific way. I purchased 21 different stocks that I believe together will average me a decent return. Some will do better than others, so I decided to purchase them as a total group... if one of them turns out to be a very bad part of the group, I'll dump it, but the idea is to look at the average return. I purchased some at heavier levels than others.

    Apple is indeed part of that group of stocks, as are other computer companies, handheld device manufacturers and cellular service providers, numerous semiconductor companies, and other tech stocks involved in the mobile internet industry. There were a couple of stocks I wanted to purchase that are not easily purchased here because they are Taiwan companies, so for now, I decided to give up on them, darn.

    The only non-tech stock I purchased today was Ford... because of the same reasons I've stated before... so obviously I didn't purchase any financials. I think there are too many issues in the financial sector that I just don't need to mess with at these lofty levels. Citi is a gamble and I agree that it could reward in a big way, but I'd rather not take the chance right now.

    Perhaps I will list all of the stocks in a later post, but I am going to start posting more about cars for a while, as our host has soooooooo patiently requested.

    Good to hear from you, as always!!

    TM
  • cyclone4cyclone4 Posts: 2,255
    Len, it's too bad about your Apple decision, but think of all the right choices you have made the past few years. Your general stock market projections have been perfect. Now, all we need is to have that stinking crude take a huge plunge, but that's wishful thinking on my part the way it looks.

    Pat has been getting upset again about all the market talk, so I better shut-up for a while :cry: . In terms of cars, my wife and I love our RX450h. It is a lot of fun to drive. And of course my LS460L will be 2 years years old this December and I still very much enjoy it.
  • sandman_6472sandman_6472 Coral Springs, FLPosts: 2,576
    Would love to get that kind of return on any investment vehicle actually. Not quiet sure where to look though. Have been very satisfied with my AT&T and plan to add a bigger position once the last of my inheritance gets to me. Plan to look at some muni bonds, general obligation ones also. Right now am seeing some good growth in my emerging market mutual funds but will keep it at the 33% of the portfolio as I think diversification is the way to go for consistent growth for any portfolio.

    So many friends at work give advice on where to allocate the $50k or so due me soon that my head is swimming. Am really a newbie with investments, as I never really had the extra $ to devote to the many financial markets. Thanks to some good investments from my dad & grandmother, I got gifted with over $100K in the last 3 years, so I'm a work in progress actually. And what a roller coaster in the global markets these past few years, that now I'm discovering that I'm really a more conservative investor than I thought I was. That's why I'm like a sponge now & listen to everybody who gives their financial advice. I don't take every suggestion & run with it, as I really am a very fiscally conservative investor. But I find it all very exciting & I'm all ears if anyone has anything to say financially speaking. It's all greatly appreciated!

    The Sandman :sick: :shades:

    2014 Hyundai Tuscon SE/2005 Mazda 3s/2008 Hyundai Accent GLS/2009 Nissan Versa SL hatch

  • sandman_6472sandman_6472 Coral Springs, FLPosts: 2,576
    Went to see a local guy who also has a radio show which i listen to when I can. He suggested to plow everything into preferred shares of a good dividend payer like AT&T. He thought it was a better way to make $ instead of just buying the common stock. Will be going to a local bond company in Boca in the next few weeks to get their take on where I should park the $. Don't have much bond exposure so I need to get some. Still somewhat confused as I'm not a good stock picker and don't have the time to be a short term investor.
    Very confusing actually and all I know is that I need this money to grow at decent rate to help fund our retirement which could start any day now if they decide to finally disable me.

    The Sandman :confuse: :sick: :shades:

    2014 Hyundai Tuscon SE/2005 Mazda 3s/2008 Hyundai Accent GLS/2009 Nissan Versa SL hatch

  • Stever@EdmundsStever@Edmunds YooperlandPosts: 38,917
    If you hurry up and buy some Ford stock, you'll get to enjoy the company watering the shares down soon to the tune of $1 billion. :)
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