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I look for sales of high end cars to remain depressed for a long time to come, as Americans increase their savings rate over the next several years. Also, credit will probably loosen up, but it's highly unlikely to be as readily available as it was in recent years.
Times have changed. Near luxury ($29,900-$39,900) is the new mid luxury ($40,000-$59,900), and mid luxury is the new high end.
Used luxury cars, unless they are extremely rare, will NEVER bring big bucks because of this repairability issue.
Let's face it, if a 25-30 year-old luxury car can't even bring $5,000 today, it's not ever going to be valuable. It's had enough time to start to appreciate.
It's about time to let go of that 1980 Blimp-mobile you've been hoarding, insuring and repairing for 30 years. There is no gold at the end of that rainbow.
Ditto a 1990 Lexus LS400 and ditto a 200X BMW 7 series or MB luxury sedan.
As for luxury coupes and ragtops, well the scenario may or may not be different. Certainly a 1980 Mercedes 450SL or SLC hasn't moved very much in price these past ten years (if at all), and all 90s coupes and convertibles are behaving like used cars, depreciating every year.
There may be a few rare, specialty-built luxury cars that will remain valuable.
"Investment" aside, you have to be the very opposite of risk-averse to buy one of these out of warranty.
I just can't imagine, with these cars using their multi-plexing circuitry, containing over 75 microprocessors, that even the cleverest of computer gurus is going to go in "cold" and fix a very glitchy wiring harness, unless they have a complete set of schematics, lots and lots of time, and your blank check in hand.
But then if your brake fluid motor and pump go out (just a little light on the dashboard as you're driving home), that's $2,300 bucks. Ouch!
If you lose the transmission, which can certainly happen on a higher mileage car, that's $5,600 bucks. This is on a $10,000 car.
I guess you could argue that lots of used cars have transmissions that cost 1/2 the value of the car, but you know with a Taurus or a Corolla you can fix it a lot cheaper or buy a used unit.
People will realize the marginal increase in comforts as car prices shoot up isn't worth what you pay. For 35K you can get something pretty excellent, no need to spend 70K, especially if you've lost 40% of your retirement and 25% of your other equity.
01 S600, clean, 60K miles, clean history etc....17.9K (I think)
EDIT:
Relisted at a lower price
That "trade in" price is pure fantasy. I doubt a dealer would give him half that.
I agree with you completely, fintail. When we trade my wife's TL, it won't be for another TL, but, more likely, for a Mazda 6, Accord, or Fusion type car. The reason is that the '09 TL or Lexus ES just don't inspire us. We might consider a C-Class Mercedes, BMW 3-Series or Cadillac CTS, but only if the driving dynamics and other attributes justify the additional cost compared with the more popular priced cars I mentioned earlier. Prestige isn't a consideration for us, so the more expensive cars would have to win on their merits rather than their cache'. Another option would be a 2-4 year old E-Class.
"Mmmm, Yuri! Luff your 'Sedes-Bainz Seeks-Hun-dret! More ree-laible thain Moskvich heem Sergei haff baik in Odessa!"
With all this talk about buying used luxury cars, and what ones to buy and not to buy, I'm surprised nobody's mentioned anything about Volvos yet. Then again, many people (including myself) don't mention the words 'Volvo' and 'luxury' in the same breath. I've never considered Volvo to be a luxury carmaker, but rather, a producer of very durable and reliable cars for the middle class, in the mold of Toyota and Honda.
Shifty, I see you've owned a few cars that you deem to be "risky," such as Audi 100s and BMW 7-Series- however, would you consider vehicles such as Volvo 850s (like mine) and 960s to be in the same category? My personal take on this is that 1) I don't see the newer, complex Volvos to be cars that would bankrupt an owner, like an older 100 or 7-Series would, and 2) Volvos are still simpler than a Bimmer or Benz, and thus will run longer even if in a decrepit state of condition. Even an older 240 is like an old '54 Chevy, compared to something like the Alfa 164 or Porsche 928. My '96 850 is long out of warranty but I will continue to drive it because I'm not afraid of the repairs, nor am I worried about racking up high mileage. Also, I would see no qualms about purchasing a higher-mileage 960 or post-1998 Volvo, because, again, they are simpler and more reliable than a Bimmer or Benz.
I am not sure whether anyone builds a luxury car today that won't be a repair nightmare when it's a decade old. Most models have fully automatic power windows and keyless ignition. The Lexus GS series has that weird keypad with a million buttons that pops out of the dash--I guess that's the only alternative to something like iDrive when you have that many features. Even my base model Pontiac G6 has three fuse blocks--one in the passenger compartment, one in the trunk, and one under the hood.
Post-1998? The early S80s had tons of electrical problems. The transmission coupled to the T6 motor in the S80 and XC90 is too weak for the engine.
Avoiding turbos of all types is something I do, too. Are there any turbos out there that folks would buy used?
I think they do have a couple of problem areas - the backlit instrument display can fail, and I want to say I have read about something in the steering being a problem too.
I have been cleaning up my late grandfather's 1998 Park Avenue Ultra, getting it ready to sell, over the past few days. Much to my chagrin, I discovered that the passenger airbag cover is not molded in the color of the rest of the interior plastic, it's painted black plastic. I found this out when I tried to use a Mr. Clean Magic Eraser to clean some spots off it, and the paint started rubbing off. This is the type of cost-cutting that wouldn't fly in a true luxury car, and the type of thing that can leave a three or five year old car looking beat up. I probably don't need to mention the way it floats and bobs down the road, or that the steering is totally uncommunicative and has a huge dead spot in the middle. By the time you've phoned in a request to correct the car's course, it's already drifted into an adjacent lane.
If that describes the Ultra, which I believe came with a firmer suspension than the regular Park Avenue, those negative ride and handling qualities you mentioned are even more exaggerated in the standard Park Avenue. Or was the firmer suspension an option on the '98 Ultra?
It has the Dynaride adjustable-height rear suspension, which was standard on the Ultra that year. I have the original window sticker ($36,000 smackeroos--the only options were a CD player and automatic dimming mirror). I think the firmer Gran Touring suspension was an option, but I'm not sure.
3MBDiesels
I imagine the GT suspension improves the ride/handling proposition significantly. Given the depressed cost of these cars today, they represent a good value in a large sedan. Of course, an aggressive driver would choose something else, but it's a good, solid vehicle for a lot of folks.
Good luck in finding a buyer. If it's not too much trouble, it would be interesting to learn about the type of person who buys it.
:P
It strikes me more of the "faux luxury" that Detroit specialized in. Cushy seats, cheap switchgear, bad handling.
it's certainly not a car I'd put my daughter in.
I don't think reliability ratings mean much of anything to a 20 year old car. How it's been cared for during its life is much more essential. I saw Lemko's '88 Park Ave soon after he first bought it, and that thing was obviously very well cared for. He's also kept up on maintenance and such, so it should continue to serve him well for awhile.
He's driven it from Philly out to Harrisburg and back numerous times when we get together for car shows, and it hasn't failed him yet!
Now sure, being a 20 year old car that's being used as a daily driver, odds are that eventually, it will succumb to something. But I think I'd trust a 20 year old car with mediocre reliability ratings that's been well cared for more than, say, a 5 year old car with stellar ratings that's been beat on and abused.
Regards,
OW