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Correlation Between Classic Car Prices and Financial Markets

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Comments

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 44,796
    Well these "mandates" have little to do with what *actually* happens in the real world. They are goals that are easily avoided.

    the biggest obstacle to the future of collectible cars is, I think, that nobody will want the cars we produce today, with the exception of a few rare birds and some of the limited production high HP models.

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  • andre1969andre1969 Posts: 21,954
    To give a rough point of reference, the 2012 Fusion hybrid gets a combined rating of about 54.1 mpg, while the Camry hybrid is around 54.8. Now these are the raw laboratory numbers, which are the ones they use for CAFE fleet averages, and not what you see on the window sticker. The window sticker would probably read about 43-44 mpg combined.

    There will still be high-powered, thirsty vehicles, but they'll be sold in fewer numbers. And the auto makers will probably just do what they've always done...sell more high-efficiency cars, even if it's at a loss, to offset the more profitable cars.

    For instance, a 2012 Nissan Leaf, which is all electric, actually has a raw fuel efficiency rating of 141 mpg. Maybe they do an estimate of how much fuel would need to be burned to generate the electricity it uses? Anyway, the 370Z gets about 27 mpg combined.

    No, you'd think that if they sell three 370Z's and one Leaf, that average would come out to around 54.5 mpg. But, they use a weighted average, which takes into account how much fuel is actually used, and not just the average of the EPA ratings. I think the weighted average of three 370's and one Leaf would be around 33.9 mpg, if I'm doing the math correctly.

    With a weighted average, in this case, I think they'd have to sell two Leafs to cancel out one 370Z. In this case, the weighted average would be around 58.8 mpg.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,201
    edited August 2012
    Thanks for the explanation. The problem, as I see it, is that the demand for Leafs and similar vehicles is low, even with government incentives. We'll see how Tesla and Fisker do.

    I'll acknowledge that I'm against government incentives, and special access to HOV lanes and parking privileges since the rest of us have to pay to sell vehicles that have low appeal.
  • texasestexases Posts: 5,562
    "the demand for Leafs and similar vehicles is low, even with government incentives"

    GM just had to shut down Volt production again, they've sold something like 10k, hoped to sell 40k/year. So yeah, how many $60k - $100k Teslas are they going to sell?
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,201
    It'll take a major breakthrough in battery or recharging technology for electrics to become competitive with internal combustion engines. In the meantime ICEs keep getting more efficient, so they're a moving target.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 44,796
    thanks for all the comments...but I'd like to ask that we not deviate from the original intent of this topic--which is the relationship between classic car prices and economic market conditions.

    I think that Automotive News has plenty of topics where your discussion might fit in.

    thank you!

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  • michaellnomichaellno Posts: 4,300
    Ok, I'll throw a question out to the group here ... (I just found this topic today).

    If you had $5K to spend on a toy (like fin's fintail), what would you get? Not a project, something that can be driven on weekends and nice summer evenings without breaking the bank for maintenance.

    60's US iron? Something British? German?

    What if the budget was upped to $10K?
  • fintailfintail Posts: 33,687
    I don't know what to suggest - depends on your driving style, aesthetic preferences, and what size of car you want. But in the under 10K market, there is a lot of nice enough 50s-70s metal to choose from.
  • lemkolemko Posts: 15,162
    For $5K:

    I would probably buy the nicest 1977-1979 Cadillac, Buick, or Oldsmobile C-Body I could find.

    For $10K:

    I'd start looking for the nicest 1969 Cadillac Fleetwood out there.
  • texasestexases Posts: 5,562
    I might try and find a clean 1st gen Scirocco or GTI, just a lot of fun. Not many around...but I did see a Scirocco on the way home today, with the whole 80's thing, louvered rear window, etc.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,201
    edited September 2012
    I've never owned a Corvette, so for $10,000 I'd take my chances on one.

    The $5,000 car would be something impulsive out of Craigslist that caught my fancy. It could be almost anything. One example would be a nice old Prelude. On the other end of the specturm it could be a Buick Regal or Pontiac Grand Prix with the supercharged 3800.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,201
    edited August 18

    A 1962 Ferrari 250 GTO Berlinetta recently sold for $38.1 million at Pebble Beach. That's a record price, and it seems like crazy bubble territory to me. How many super rich greater fools can there be at that price level?

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