Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM To Become #1?

stever

Toyota pulled the plug on Scion this week. Rumor is that the Prius V wagon will disappear too, as may the Prius C. Prius sales are in the dumper (as are gas prices).

"Toyota said its U.S. sales fell 4.7% in January, as good results for some of its crossover SUVs failed to offset a big drop in sales of car models.

A decent month for Toyota's trucks, but a very tough one for its cars."

The Troubling Trend in Toyota's Sales Numbers (fool.com)

GM is killing Toyota on big truck sales, at least in the US. And trucks and SUVs are way profitable. That's more important to the bottom line than holding the sales lead.

berri

I don't think Toyota styling is helping their sales. You've got conservative buyer's cars like the Camry now carrying Anime type looks. Personally, I think the latest iteration of Camry just looks like the last one except for a gaping ugly mouth of a grill and a useless piece of plastic tacked onto the C pillars. Lots of better looking competitors with decent reliability out there and people are surprised by their stalled and declining car sales...

texases

Speaking of Toyota styling, I followed a new RX350 this morning. Turns out they copied the 'spindle' design from the front onto the raised shape of the rear hatch. 2 X bad = ugh!

stever

Have you driven (into) a Ford lately?

berri

Why do Ford's so frequently have these rather ugly paint colors? And this blue is relatively tame compared to some of the Focus and Escapes I see on the dealer lots.

stever

I don't think it's the blue so much as all the black instead of chrome (or a calmer design).

gagrice

stever said:

VW disaster news of the day:

[VW] had found "irregularites" with the amount of CO2 pumped out by 800,000 of its vehicles.
While this is only a fraction of the 11m diesel engines VW has previously admitted it fitted with "defeat devices" so they could beat emissions tests, the news is potentially more serious.

This raises the possibility that the company's entire range of vehicles may have been cheating to hit pollution control targets."

Crisis-hit Volkswagen's troubles worsen as internal investigation reveals inconsistencies in the amount of CO2 emitted by diesel and petrol cars (telegraph.co.uk0

Shares in the German auto giant fell nearly 10pc today

I don't think so, my shares of VLKAY were up on Friday. Still over 2 bucks ahead of price paid in October.

I meant Thursday. Today their stock is up 67 cents with the Dow in the toilet.

stever

That was the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. (IBT) Beats me why your ADR stuff is going the other direction.

This is kind of interesting:

VW postpones release of financial results due to diesel emissions scandal (theguardian.com)

fintail

I wonder how much more of that is test cycle vs real world discrepancies, like the clickbait / looking for drama story about the MB. I mean "cheating" lol.

British media also has to be looked at with a grain of salt - many there are pretty bitter when Germany comes up, as German firms helped bring down the British motor industry, and now owns much of it. It's about as impartial as looking to anything with "Umwelt Hilfe" in the name when it comes to diesel cars, or when an author who is a Japanese car fan and got booted off another site about Toyota's competitor for domination posts said clickbait/drama story.

stever said:

VW disaster news of the day:

[VW] had found "irregularites" with the amount of CO2 pumped out by 800,000 of its vehicles.
While this is only a fraction of the 11m diesel engines VW has previously admitted it fitted with "defeat devices" so they could beat emissions tests, the news is potentially more serious.

This raises the possibility that the company's entire range of vehicles may have been cheating to hit pollution control targets."

Crisis-hit Volkswagen's troubles worsen as internal investigation reveals inconsistencies in the amount of CO2 emitted by diesel and petrol cars (telegraph.co.uk0

fintail

Look at the rear door shape without the plastic. Looks identical to the prior car. It's just a really heavy-handed facelift, made to fool people who don't like cars that the reliable appliance they are buying is something exciting and new.

The "bold" new Camry, yup.

berri said:

I don't think Toyota styling is helping their sales. You've got conservative buyer's cars like the Camry now carrying Anime type looks. Personally, I think the latest iteration of Camry just looks like the last one except for a gaping ugly mouth of a grill and a useless piece of plastic tacked onto the C pillars. Lots of better looking competitors with decent reliability out there and people are surprised by their stalled and declining car sales...

Mr_Shiftright

The U.S. market is extremely mature and it's very hard to gain any market share within it (although GM has excelled in the past in losing it). I wouldn't base the future of any company on what it does in the US market alone.

berri

Good point. GM is doing alright because of China. I just read they are introducing their new Cadillac SRX crossover replacement in Dubai. The auto market is global.

stever

The daily dose of dirt....

"Volkswagen's former head of group quality control Frank Tuch has left the carmaker as chief executive Matthias Mueller overhauls senior management positions following the emissions test-rigging scandal."

"Volkswagen is becoming more streamlined and speeding up its internal decision-making processes," the carmaker said, adding that the number of top managers reporting directly to CEO Mueller has almost been halved."

VW's former quality chief quits as CEO pushes overhaul (cnbc.com)

"The world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund criticized Volkswagen AG’s ownership structure, saying it concentrates too much power with the Porsche-Piech family and puts minority shareholders at a disadvantage amid the carmaker’s emissions crisis."

The World's Biggest Wealth Fund Is Unhappy With Volkswagen's Leadership (Bloomberg)

stever

"Volkswagen Group sales returned to growth in January despite the company's diesel emissions scandal, thanks to demand in China where VW core brand posted its best month ever."

VW Group sales return to growth in January despite diesel scandal (autonews.com)

texases

World? OK. US? Not so much:
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2016/02/ugliest-sales-yet-january-nasty-volkswagen/

Mr_Shiftright

It's ironic--just when VW starts to build cars that are reliable, good looking and fun to drive.

gagrice

May have been premature to be pounding nails in VW's coffin. My VW stock is up nicely this morning.

Volkswagen AG (ADR) (OTCMKTS:VLKAY) sales have finally returned back on track, despite the automaker’s prolonged diesel-emission scandal. The credit goes to high demand in China where Volkswagen core brand reported its best monthly sales ever.

http://www.businessfinancenews.com/27739-volkswagen-ag-sales-coming-back-on-track/

Mr_Shiftright

I wouldn't exactly call investment in China a sure thing right now.

stever

"Michael Horn, whose surprise departure from the helm of Volkswagen Group of America was announced late on Wednesday, was not on the teams negotiating with U.S. regulators over a fix for almost 600,000 vehicles found to be emitting up for 40 times the legal limit of pollutants, sources close to the matter said.

But he was a popular figure among U.S. dealers, who viewed him as critical to the German company's attempts to win back customers in the world's second-biggest car market.

The U.S. National Automobile Dealers Association on Thursday called Horn's departure "regrettable," and called on Volkswagen Chief Executive Matthias Mueller and VW brand chief Herbert Diess to meet with the brand's U.S. dealers in Las Vegas next month.

"VW has its back to the wall, Horn's departure is happening at the most inconvenient time," said Arndt Ellinghorst, an analyst at banking advisory firm Evercore ISI. "If such a key figure quits, this will inevitably cause more unrest."

Loss of U.S. boss seen hitting VW turnaround, but not talks with regulators (Reuters)

berri

Not a great situation and I feel bad for the mess VW has gotten itself into. But this shows that just like Asia, it is not just Detroit that messes up.

stever

"Now, a warning comes out of Germany directed at the US. In front of 20,000 workers at Volkswagen's Wolfsburg headquarters, works council chairman Bernd Osterloh said, "Should the future viability of Volkswagen be endangered by an unprecedented financial penalty, this will have dramatic social consequences, not only in our US plants, but also in Europe and elsewhere." Osterloh, who sits on a VW advisory board, added, "We very much hope that the US authorities also have an eye for this social and employment-political dimension."

US jobs at risk over diesel scandal, Volkswagen says (autoblog.com)

"The suggestion was startling: Maybe VW should give up on selling cars to America's masses.

It was late January, at the Detroit auto show, and Herbert Diess, the global chief of Volkswagen's namesake brand, was sounding out U.S. dealers as the company grappled with the biggest crisis in its recent history. Perhaps, Diess wondered aloud, VW should stop trying to compete with the likes of Toyota in the U.S. and go back to focusing on higher-end models."

VW chief's pullout talk riles dealers (arkansasonline.com)

Mr_Shiftright

Could be a bluff but I wouldn't be at all surprised if that actually happened. I initially thought that dieselgate was going to be potentially lethal for entry level diesel passenger cars in the USA, and I still think so. It's pretty shaky.

gagrice

My guess is the threat will fall on deaf ears at the EPA and this administration. The Feds could care less if 3500 jobs in some little podunk town in TN goes away. Not to mention thousands more at the dealerships. They are doing their best to wipe out the coal industry jobs. While our competitors around the world including Germany are expanding their use of coal to produce cheap electricity. I don't believe the Feds can collect if VW leaves the USA. We are already on the S-List in many European countries. Might as well add Germany to the list.

berri

I dunno, seems to me VW's biggest problem here is a combination of bad dealers and a lot of less than inspiring product. If someone is looking for the latter they will probably just go for quality and buy a Toyota or something similar. Remember, VW sales numbers had been less than impressive in the US market before all of this fiasco. Also, in general I don't think Americans like liars and so far VW isn't doing much to dispel that image. I'm laying this one of VW more than the gov. As for the US collecting, VW Corp. still has Audi and Porsche here. I'm not sure they are ready to fold those lucrative products in a country that is willing to pay big dollar margins for them. The VW plant and product line may or not stay, but I think sales revenues and product line profitability will be the dominant factors in that decision more than legal fines. Those tend to get negotiated during appeal and are one time expenses.

Mr_Shiftright

gagrice said:

My guess is the threat will fall on deaf ears at the EPA and this administration. The Feds could care less if 3500 jobs in some little podunk town in TN goes away. Not to mention thousands more at the dealerships. They are doing their best to wipe out the coal industry jobs. While our competitors around the world including Germany are expanding their use of coal to produce cheap electricity. I don't believe the Feds can collect if VW leaves the USA. We are already on the S-List in many European countries. Might as well add Germany to the list.

Apparently it's been the automakers who don't care if jobs go away---at least that's something they've been very good at doing historically. EPA is obviously a job creator--the auto biz is booming again in 2016--might break 2015 record even without VW in the mix.

gagrice

I should just let that slide. The EPA are job killers. Ask the 1000s in the steel and aluminum industries in the MW that depended on cheap electricity to be competitive with foreign manufacturers.

More cars being sold is directly a result of subprime lending and cheap leases.

If VW negotiates a reasonable fine. Less than the $900 million GM skated on for murdering 125+ people. I think the Golf EV being built in TN, to satisfy the EPA is the best solution. Just let the vehicles in question live out their life as they are. Still not enough extra NOx to get excited about.

Mr_Shiftright

Well that's like saying that not allowing horses to dump in the street destroyed the buggy whip industry. Every industry runs its course you know, which is why we aren't wearing face masks and oxygen tanks like the Chinese are.

Emissions regulations have been a boon to the auto industry As for the "jobs" I was referring to--the subject of this topic I mean, those are auto industry jobs. What happened in the asbestos and DDT industries isn't part of the auto world.

Whatever jobs went away in the auto industry were ultimately the victims of corporate cost-cutting, perhaps justified, okay, but nonetheless, it was their decision. The EPA didn't tell the auto industry to fire anyone, move, bild crappy cars, or cheap out the product. They just told them to clean up.

You wouldn't blame VW's ills on the EPA would you---oh, wait, you might LOL!

If jobs are lost at the VW factories, it's VWs fault. They screwed up.

Well look, it's the year 2016 and if you want to play in the auto industry, you have to build clean cars. There's no turning back from this, and I must say that Toyota's great success is based in part to their early and total commitment to this mandate. GM is a late comer, but now they have the Volt and the Bolt and various hybrids.

Back in the day, though, Detroit sent their lawyers, and Japan sent their engineers, and the rest is history.

I hope history doesn't repeat itself. If the USA turns its back on green tech, Europe and Asia are going to clean our clock.

berri

Well I've said it before that chasing the #1 sales spot is suicide. Now VW has a recall on pedal issues including the Tiguan SUV and is apparently investigating some Audi and Porsche. It seems to be one thing after another lately. Wasn't all that long ago that Toyota wanted to race to the sales top and that resulted in some ugly quality setbacks. GM didn't seem to shine when it was #1 either. Today GM is focused on quality and profitability, and the product seems much improved. I'm getting to think that #1 Sales Volume in a jinx

Mr_Shiftright

It's beginning to look like VW is totally screwed. Some highly qualified engineers suggest that a fix is not economically feasible and a buy-back might be VW's only option left.

hpmctorque

Are diesels finished for car and crossover applications? Will Europe soon stop supporting diesels in favor of hybrids and EVs for light vehicles?

gagrice

Mr_Shiftright said:

It's beginning to look like VW is totally screwed. Some highly qualified engineers suggest that a fix is not economically feasible and a buy-back might be VW's only option left.

How many would want to sell their VW TDI if they could not get another diesel? Not very many I would bet. Not me for sure. I imagine the vehicles with DEF systems will just need a computer flash to set things straight. Unless the EPA starts doing smog testing for the whole USA, The cars in the 40 states that do not do smog tests should be left alone. Why mess with a good thing unless your state forces you to?

slorenzen

gagrice said:

Mr_Shiftright said:

It's beginning to look like VW is totally screwed. Some highly qualified engineers suggest that a fix is not economically feasible and a buy-back might be VW's only option left.

How many would want to sell their VW TDI if they could not get another diesel? Not very many I would bet. Not me for sure. I imagine the vehicles with DEF systems will just need a computer flash to set things straight. Unless the EPA starts doing smog testing for the whole USA, The cars in the 40 states that do not do smog tests should be left alone. Why mess with a good thing unless your state forces you to?

I found it interesting when I loved to Oregon from California, they only do smog tests in the Portland/Salem area, but not around here.

If you can't sell the Toureg down there, I'll give ya $1000 for it, RIGHT NOW!

Mr_Shiftright

gagrice said:

Mr_Shiftright said:

It's beginning to look like VW is totally screwed. Some highly qualified engineers suggest that a fix is not economically feasible and a buy-back might be VW's only option left.

How many would want to sell their VW TDI if they could not get another diesel? Not very many I would bet. Not me for sure. I imagine the vehicles with DEF systems will just need a computer flash to set things straight. Unless the EPA starts doing smog testing for the whole USA, The cars in the 40 states that do not do smog tests should be left alone. Why mess with a good thing unless your state forces you to?

----------------------------------------------------------------

That's a good question and I don't know how VW diesel owners will react to their "unfixable" cars. I suppose the EPA will give them all one-time exemptions if they decline VW's buy-back offer, but I suspect VW might offer a "blue book + something for your trouble" kind of deal that might be too delicious to pass up.

In any event, VW's dominance in the diesel niche has now evaporated. At least we know why VW was able to produce a "clean" diesel for so much less than the other car companies.

berri

From what I've read, California is going to refuse to license renew or register them if they aren't fixed to CA requirements regardless of the Fed EPA. That will probably end up in court as well as hurt owner's resale. What an ugly mess.

gagrice

berri said:

From what I've read, California is going to refuse to license renew or register them if they aren't fixed to CA requirements regardless of the Fed EPA. That will probably end up in court as well as hurt owner's resale. What an ugly mess.

They will have to redo their entire smog testing for diesels then. Because they pass smog, so how would they tell? VW sends out a flash for the vehicles equipped with DEF. How would the state know? They did not detect the excess NOx the last 7 years.

Worst comes to Worse I have a solid offer from my friend in Oregon. He is correct only a few Oregon cities do smog tests. Makes moving to Oregon look better and better.

stever

Plus you wouldn't have to soil your hands pumping that nasty diesel.

Mr_Shiftright

gagrice said:

berri said:

From what I've read, California is going to refuse to license renew or register them if they aren't fixed to CA requirements regardless of the Fed EPA. That will probably end up in court as well as hurt owner's resale. What an ugly mess.

They will have to redo their entire smog testing for diesels then. Because they pass smog, so how would they tell? VW sends out a flash for the vehicles equipped with DEF. How would the state know? They did not detect the excess NOx the last 7 years.

Worst comes to Worse I have a solid offer from my friend in Oregon. He is correct only a few Oregon cities do smog tests. Makes moving to Oregon look better and better.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Medford and Portland areas have pretty strict emissions testing.

fintail

I suspect one can buy their way past a test with a few fails like they can in WA - lots of polluters on the road in Oregon, just like in the Puget Sound with its strict testing.

I am surprised the various moronic governments in the EUSSR haven't started an all-out crackdown against diesel at the behest of their hypocritical greenies. It might distract people from the demographic ticking time bomb.

berri

I was catching up on my reading and the Mar 15 issue of Fortune had a rather disturbing article on VW, its political practices in the EU and the apparent lying that has been going on. Besides emissions, there seems to be some European investigations into possible fibbing on fuel economy too. This Winterkorn guy who was running VW during a lot of this was the head of Audi before that. If this article is only half correct, it would still be rather disgusting.

gagrice

berri said:

I was catching up on my reading and the Mar 15 issue of Fortune had a rather disturbing article on VW, its political practices in the EU and the apparent lying that has been going on. Besides emissions, there seems to be some European investigations into possible fibbing on fuel economy too. This Winterkorn guy who was running VW during a lot of this was the head of Audi before that. If this article is only half correct, it would still be rather disgusting.

I am sure the inner workings of all the giant multinationals would be an eye opener. Look how long it took Toyota to admit the sins of the family. Of course GM, Ford and Chrysler have been rife with scandal and corruption their entire existences. Only thing more corrupt than large corporations, is governments bought by the corporations. Greed & deception go all the way to the homeless guy on the street stealing from another unfortunate homeless person.

berri

Sad isn't it? Then they get caught and all the good accomplished is quickly forgotten and replaced by the recently discovered bad. I'll never understand it.

As for Toyota, I believe their biggest issues actually came about while that non family, Ivy League MBA educated Watanabe was running it.

stever

Audi shows VW how it should be down.

"The VW Group’s Audi division not only achieved the ambitious goal its German management set — three years early in 2015 — of reaching 200,000 annual sales, it also topped all luxury brands in J.D. Power’s recent annual customer service survey."

Audi Success Inside the VW Group Practically Lost Amid Diesel Scandal (automobilemag.com

stever

"All said, it’s going to be a tough year for VW, and we’ve not yet seen the full fallout from the emissions scandal. The longer it plays out, however, the more capital will redirect from its revenues to those of its rival makers in Europe, Asia and the United States."

"General Motors and Toyota Will Continue to Feast on Volkswagen Woes (9247wallst.com)

hpmctorque

I thought this was an interesting piece of news, but since I can't find a discussion where it fits I'll stick it here...

http://autoweek.com/article/formula-one/russian-businessman-completes-purchase-nurburgring

gagrice

hpmctorque said:

I thought this was an interesting piece of news, but since I can't find a discussion where it fits I'll stick it here...

http://autoweek.com/article/formula-one/russian-businessman-completes-purchase-nurburgring

Folks with money are buying iconic real estate the world over. That one is a surprise for sure.

hpmctorque

gagrice said:

hpmctorque said:

I thought this was an interesting piece of news, but since I can't find a discussion where it fits I'll stick it here...

http://autoweek.com/article/formula-one/russian-businessman-completes-purchase-nurburgring

Folks with money are buying iconic real estate the world over. That one is a surprise for sure.

Yeah, the buyer may have no knowledge or interest in cars. It may simply have been an investment, or a way to exchange volatile (after a steep decline the Russian currency seems to have stabilized) rubles for property that will probably, at a minimum, generate some income.

fintail

AKA money laundering. Not that I am saying wealthy people from certain areas dabble in that.

hpmctorque

fintail said:

AKA money laundering. Not that I am saying wealthy people from certain areas dabble in that.

Could certainly be, or maybe he's just a friend of a friend of Putin, who hasn't violated Russia's crony capitalism laws. Russia's and China's income and wealth disparity make ours look mild by comparison.

fintail

If you're a Putin friend of a friend, you probably didn't Horatio Alger yourself into such money. I'm unfortunately aware of that income disparity, as in my area, a significant amount of residential housing is sold to offshore cash buyers from a few specific areas. All on the up and up, of course (while the dwellings often sit empty).

hpmctorque said:

Could certainly be, or maybe he's just a friend of a friend of Putin, who hasn't violated Russia's crony capitalism laws. Russia's and China's income and wealth disparity make ours look mild by comparison.

hpmctorque

fintail said:

If you're a Putin friend of a friend, you probably didn't Horatio Alger yourself into such money. I'm unfortunately aware of that income disparity, as in my area, a significant amount of residential housing is sold to offshore cash buyers from a few specific areas. All on the up and up, of course (while the dwellings often sit empty).

hpmctorque said:

Could certainly be, or maybe he's just a friend of a friend of Putin, who hasn't violated Russia's crony capitalism laws. Russia's and China's income and wealth disparity make ours look mild by comparison.

I recently read that home prices and rents have risen considerably more than the national average in the Pacific Northwest, including Vancouver, making housing unaffordable or straining the budgets of more people than just a few years ago. The new $15 minimum wage will help the working poor a little, but will hardly solve this problem. The result will probably be that fewer people will relocate to your area, and some will be forced to move to cities that are more affordable.