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Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM To Become #1?

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  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,693
    Too bad the diesel will cost so much, and there's no hybrid.....the guzzler 2.5 is the base engine - can you say 22 mpg? :sick:

    OTOH, it's maybe a PLUS that they didn't make the age-old 115 hp 2.0 the base engine for the Beetle, given that it also has lousy fuel economy and no power to boot.....I can't BELIEVE they made that the base engine for the new cheapo Jetta.

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,090
    The Beetle gasser will sell to girls that think they are cute. They should still out handle anything in the class offered by the Japanese or Koreans. And the Geek squad buys them by the boat loads. I would not mind having one in Gecko green with a diesel. I would not waste money on the gasser.

    I think the push will be the Passat diesel built in TN. I still think about the Sportswagen TDI from time to time. Just too small and too low to the ground for long trips.
  • fho2008fho2008 Posts: 393
    If you had a diesel, why would you need a hybrid? Hopefully they wont give us McAudis like they are with the VWs, Beetle may be the exception, bigger, cheaper isnt why I bought my VW.

    If I need a new car I'll be looking at Audi.
  • berriberri Posts: 4,254
    I think lower prices and a US plant will help VW gain sales, but I also think they have a long way to go in North America because of a rather small and weak dealer system. Of course, maybe they intend to become #1 through Asia, India, etc.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,090
    VW has the most sales in China, Brazil and the EU. Not sure about India. So they are looking more at emerging markets to take over number one in the World. Japan and US are actually diminishing markets. Though I agree the new plant and the Passat TDI should give them a boost.
  • texasestexases Posts: 5,669
    US is pretty flat, which is what makes their goal by 2018 (800k, up from about 300k, I think) so amazing/bizarre. I just can't see them taking that much market share away from the others, especially when Hyundai/Kia is coming on so strong.
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,693
    800K annual sales in the U.S. is just an outright laugh. I will eat my hat if they increase their sales by even 20%, let alone the 166% that figure would represent.

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,090
    Well they are well on their way to better than 22% this year so far. If they keep up the current trend they should sell about 300K vehicles here this year. A lot will depend on how well the Passat TDI is accepted this Fall. VW gained 35% in June over last June without the Beetle or Passat available. They will have their full lineup at the dealers this fall. I expect the new Beetle and Passat to do well. Look for at least 30% gain for the whole year over last year.

    http://media.vw.com/news
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,090
    edited July 2011
    If VW can keep up their current trend of 20% or more per year, they will hit 800k by 2016. They will be well over a million by their target date of 2018. If they continue to offer fuel efficient vehicles that beat the competition they have a great chance of reaching that lofty goal. They did manage 20% last year over 2009. They sold 256,830 vehicles in 2010. At the current trend they should sell 314K this year. I would guess more with the new Passat and Beetle.

    http://media.vw.com/press_releases/volkswagen-of-america-closes-2010-with-best-o- verall-year-sales-since-2003
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,693
    Yes, but every model they have is being renewed right now - OF COURSE sales are going to be up this year. I believe the growth target was for the year 2015, which will be precisely at the END of the model cycle for all the models just now being renewed: Beetle, Jetta, Passat, GTI. Doubt that Audi will pick up that much slack. Tiguan and Touareg? Isn't one of those about to enter a new model cycle too?

    The course VW is on right now will have everyone asking themselves the question in the next few years, "what exactly IS the value of going German?". It won't be the interiors any more, it never was the reliability, fuel economy (except for the high-priced diesels), or smog emissions. Chassis dynamics? We will have to see if the new models are any better in that department than their domestic and Asian competition, and whether slothful American drivers even care. High technology? Is there notably more of that in sub-$30K VWs than in their competition? I think not - you have to look to Audi for the high-tech in the VW Group, and even then the competition is stiff. You would have a hard time convincing me that Audis are significantly technologically advanced vs their competitors. And they aren't even RWD.

    Some will declare that VW can succeed in achieving its lofty sales goals on the basis of diesel availability alone, but they would never sell me on that one....

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • texasestexases Posts: 5,669
    Another reason VW sales will spike this year and maybe next year is the problems from the quake/tsunami. You can bet Toyota/Honda/Nissan will pull out all the maketing stops when their spupplies are back up. I put the over/under on VW in 2018 at 500k. Higher, yes, but not 800k.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,090
    Some will declare that VW can succeed in achieving its lofty sales goals on the basis of diesel availability alone, but they would never sell me on that one...

    Thankfully for VW you are not the average car buyer. I think they will achieve their goal by all of the above. Dumbing down to the American buyer being the number one thing I see. VW tried it by selling superior German handling and engineering and they did not sell so well. So they will come down to the level of the competition from Japan, Korea and the USA.

    As far as VW/Audi diesels that is a huge part of their current success. I would assume they will play on that. VW TDI over 20% of vehicles sold. Audi A3 46% diesel. Audi monster SUV Q7 with 34% diesel.

    You like small fuel efficient cars. You should take the Golf TDI for a good long test drive. You will not be satisfied with a gasser again. And you will not find a gas non hybrid that can deliver 50 MPG. I am still waiting for ANY vehicle to break this record.

    Together, the Taylors own nearly 40 world records for fuel economy, and this month they added to their tally by breaking the mileage record for driving the 48 contiguous United States. Their mark: 67.9 miles per gallon, achieved over 19 days and some 9,500 miles in a 2009 Volkswagen Jetta TDI.

    Together, the Taylors own nearly 40 world records for fuel economy, and this month they added to their tally by breaking the mileage record for driving the 48 contiguous United States. Their mark: 67.9 miles per gallon, achieved over 19 days and some 9,500 miles in a 2009 Volkswagen Jetta TDI.
  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,596
    edited July 2011
    VW is really going to have to lean on their dealers if they want to hit those numbers. Some VW dealers' reputations have improved but they've burned a lot of people who don't want to go back.

    Moderator
    Minivan fan. Feel free to message or email me - stever@edmunds.com.

  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,090
    I am wondering if it is VWUSA or the dealers that are the problem? Now is not the time to get stingy with warranty work. Their house of cards could come down just like Toyota and GM. Not quite as drastic as they don't have near as far to fall. My local dealer is Ford, Hyundai and VW. The VW sales people also sell Hyundai. It would be interesting to know which they make the most money on. I don't think they are cross shopped that much.

    It is unlikely someone interested in the Touareg would be considering a VeraCruz.
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,693
    As far as VW/Audi diesels that is a huge part of their current success. I would assume they will play on that. VW TDI over 20% of vehicles sold. Audi A3 46% diesel. Audi monster SUV Q7 with 34% diesel.


    And all of them combined are less than 80K vehicle sales per year, or 10% of the goal they hope to hit in four short years. And diesels are by far their hottest product! Nope, diesel helps a little and gives them something green to point to, but they will need a whole heck of a lot more than that to have any hope of getting near this crazy goal.

    You should take the Golf TDI for a good long test drive. You will not be satisfied with a gasser again.

    I have watched diesel in my county go from $0.40/gallon more than regular unleaded (in the winter) to $0.80/gallon more now. With unleaded at $3.80, that is a 21% premium in price for the fuel. While I might like the Golf TDI and while I might talk mysef into one despite the rumors of failing fuel pumps which VW will not cover under warranty, the math alone would never pencil out. At 50 mpg in the Golf, I wouldn't even be breaking even.

    While I can appreciate the benefits of diesel for some folks, I will never be one of those folks. And either way, VW cannot put all its eggs in that basket. It needs four or five more really attractive baskets. I don't see any others yet though.

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,090
    I cannot imagine VW being that stupid. They had a horrible experience with the UAW years ago. They did not build in Michigan because of the UAW and it not being a Right to Work state. With the UAW they would not have much chance of reaching their goal of 800k VWs by 2018. I seriously doubt the UAW could win an election in TN. Not known for strong union sentiment.
  • robr2robr2 BostonPosts: 7,968
    I cannot imagine VW being that stupid.

    It's not like VW has a choice to say no to a union. All they can do is treat their employees well so that they aren't interested in a union - just like what Toyota, Honda, MB, BMW, Hyundai and Nissan have done. None of those transplants are unionized.
  • anythngbutgmanythngbutgm Posts: 4,182
    Surprisingly, the Mazda 6 is was until this year and Mitsubushi has a few as well...

    Cars, Trucks & Vans by Union Members
    in the United States (UAW) and Canada (CAW)
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,090
    You are exactly right. Treat employees decent and the chances of a union coming in is small. There will always be those that infiltrate and stir up dissension. That is why VW would be wise to cull out any applicant with UAW in his background. I think VW had something like 1000 applicants for every job opening. They can be real picky and should be. If they want a team that will build cars to beat the tough competition, better hire the best they can find. And treat them well.
  • robr2robr2 BostonPosts: 7,968
    Surprisingly, the Mazda 6 is was until this year and Mitsubushi has a few as well...

    I forgot about those two. But weren't both of them joint ventures so the union had to come in?? Mazda at Flat Rock with Ford and Mitsubishi at Normal with Chrysler?

    It seems none of the stand alone transplants are unionized. Heck even when Chrysler was part of MB, Daimler managed to keep Alabama non-union even though the union in Germany wanted to see it unionized.
  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,596
    Fun YouTube tour of the VW factory in Dresden.

    VW Transparent Factory

    Moderator
    Minivan fan. Feel free to message or email me - stever@edmunds.com.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,309
    "BERLIN (Bloomberg) -- Volkswagen AG will probably become the world's biggest carmaker this year, vaulting past Toyota Motor Corp. and General Motors Co. on gains in emerging markets.

    VW Group's sales, third among carmakers in 2010, will probably rise 13 percent to 8.1 million vehicles this year, based on the average of three analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

    GM sales will gain about 8 percent to 7.55 million, while Toyota will drop 9 percent to 7.27 million, according to the survey.

    Volkswagen sales in China may rise almost 20 percent this year and more than double in India, according to estimates at researcher J.D. Power & Associates.

    That's a contrast to Toyota, which is suspending plants in Southeast Asia because of floods in Thailand, months after an earthquake crippled production in Japan.

    "Emerging markets are at a stage of car-adoption by consumers and there is still a large space for sales to grow. said Jenny Gu, Shanghai-based senior markets analyst for J.D. Power. ''VW realized this and put a lot of effort on emerging markets.''

    Estimates at J.D. Power, IHS Automotive and PwC Autofacts were used to calculate the average projections.
    Next year's lead

    Toyota may regain the lead from VW next year as the recovery of the Japanese company's facilities from the March earthquake will pave the way for Toyota to sell 8.4 million cars, or half a million units more than VW, according to research firm IHS.

    J.D. Power projects VW will retain its lead in 2012, outselling Toyota by about 50,000 units.

    VW, which also owns the Audi and Skoda brands, focused on boosting capacity and its network of dealerships as it built its brand in markets such as China and India, Gu said.

    Automakers are turning to developing economies for growth as sales in mature markets slow.

    China is already the biggest auto market globally, with sales exceeding 18 million in 2010. VW sales in China will probably reach 2.3 million units and 116,000 in India this year, with the two markets accounting for about a third of the company's sales, according to J.D. Power estimates.
    Record investments

    VW, which operates more than 60 factories worldwide, plans to spend a record 62.4 billion euros ($87 billion) -- excluding its ventures in China -- over the next five years to raise annual production to 10 million by 2018.

    VW's Chinese joint ventures, which are not consolidated, will invest another 14 billion euros through 2016.

    The German company may reach the target three years ahead of schedule, according to a person familiar with the matter. The company has forecast its global sales will increase 5 percent this year after posting a record 7.2 million deliveries in 2010.

    VW's Audi luxury unit overtook Mercedes Benz as the world's second-largest maker of high-end vehicles earlier this year, trailing only BMW.

    First in China

    VW, the first overseas carmaker to enter China three decades ago, is planning to add two plants and double production to 3 million cars annually.

    Audi is considering a new factory there to expand annual manufacturing to as high as 700,000 vehicles by 2015 as luxury demand increases, Dietmar Voggenreiter, its China president said on Oct. 20.

    Still, VW faces hurdles with its partnership with Japanese carmaker Suzuki Motor Corp., whose venture in India is the top seller in the market.

    The German carmaker is also facing delays in a planned merger with Porsche SE. Suzuki is seeking to end an alliance with its German partner after accusing it of violating a cooperation agreement by not sharing technology. VW has said it plans to keep its stake.

    Ending the partnership with Suzuki would undermine the German automaker's credit assessment, Moody's Investors Service said in a statement today.

    Toyota would be relinquishing its lead after last year's record recalls, which has led President Akio Toyoda to say his key priorities will be focusing on customer satisfaction and restoring Toyota's reputation.

    Back-to-back disasters

    Toyota temporarily halted all its plants to assess the impact of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

    Seven months later, the automaker is facing factory closures across Southeast Asia, triggered by Thailand's worst floods in half a century. Toyota's shortfalls paves the way for GM, the biggest U.S. automaker, to gain market share.

    GM is relying on sales in developing nations including China, Brazil and India for growth in the future, CEO Dan Akerson said Sept. 21.

    GM, which makes Buick and Chevrolet-branded sedans with Chinese partner SAIC Motor Co., sells more cars in China than in its home market. Sales in the nation has topped 2 million vehicles in 2011, the carmaker said on Oct. 17.

    Growth in the global auto market will probably accelerate next year, rising 6.5 percent in 2012 after expanding 3.5 percent this year, according to estimates at Moody's Investors Service."
  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,596
    Wonder where they'd be without all the natural disasters hitting Toyota?

    Moderator
    Minivan fan. Feel free to message or email me - stever@edmunds.com.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,309
    We'll find out in 2012, but my guess is that Toyota is slipping, even if you factor in the disasters. The same can be said for Honda. It's about product, and GM, VW and others have gotten more competitive. Toyota and Honda seemed invincible not too long ago, but their competitors have closed the gap. I wouldn't count Toyota and Honda out, because they could prove to be resilient, but it's hardly a forgone conclusion that they'll reclaim their positions.

    Let's see how the '12 camry is received, and how competitive the next Corolla is. At Honda, we should observe how quickly they correct the new Civic's demerits, and how well the '13 Accord compares with the competition.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,090
    I think the key is VW has World class cars and Toyota only has US class cars. I don't see Toyota making huge inroads into China. They still don't like Japan. Without the Chinese market you cannot be number one in the World.
  • fho2008fho2008 Posts: 393
    New jetta must be selling well, upped the base price $500 in one year.
  • berriberri Posts: 4,254
    I think the key is VW has World class cars and Toyota only has US class cars

    Personally, I don't think VW has anywhere near world class reliability. I think there may be a different factor playing in their favor in China - the Chinese hate the Japanese.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 29,090
    I think VW and Skoda both have a very good reputation in the EU. The Golf is top rated in Europe for reliability in its class.

    I believe there is still a lot of animosity toward Japan by the Chinese. Also VW has been building and selling cars in China for over 30 years. Where Toyota threw all their eggs into the USA basket and now we are a declining market as China is a growing market. Last projection I read was 18 million for China this year. I doubt we ever match our peak of 2000 when we bought 17.4 million new vehicles.

    Add to that VW builds the only diesel cars that are affordable to the average US buyer. If they get their reliability on track they will continue their record gains over the last few years. Toyota now has competition from Ford and GM for appliance type cars.
  • benjaminhbenjaminh Posts: 1,785
    edited October 2011
    Beat out the Camry and Sonata.

    Looks like a pretty impressive care for 20k. And yes, I know that's the manual, but that's what I prefer anyway....

    http://www.motortrend.com/roadtests/sedans/1110_2012_mazda3_skyactiv_g_first_tes- t/
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