Hybrids in the News

terry92270 · September 2006

Way too much "supposing" to yeild accurate and reliable data for comparison. Way too much.

kdhspyder · September 2006

Agreed.

tpe · September 2006

Just to clarify. Are you stating that for the purpose of determining the benefits of hybrid technology the Camry vs Prius comparison is more valid than Camry vs Camry hybrid?

kdhspyder · September 2006

It depends on what your ( or anyone's ) major personal criteria are. There are three comparo's I see that can be made.
Assuming we are speaking only of new vehicles...

Pure Efficiency
For those looking purely at the vehicle as a means of getting from A to B in the most fuel efficient manner then yes the Prius should be compared to the Camry CE or LE ( or Matrix

)
The vehicles have similar performance and room inside. The Camry is bigger of course. As hatchbacks the Prius and Matrix use cargo space better.
The Prius is about 60% more efficient than either the 2.4L Camry or the 1.8L Matrix.

Performance ( TCH to V6 Camry/Accord/Sonata/Fusion )
However some buyers will never under any circumstance consider a 4c vehicle of any type. For these buyers only a vehicle with V6 performance will be considered.

Model to Model ( TCH vs 4c Camry/Accord/Sonata/Fusion )
This is a little trickier since you have to first create similarly equipped vehicles then you have to give some value to the V6 performance of the TCH and to better fuel efficiency. A basic LE Camry is nowhere near the same vehicle as the TCH in features. An XLE 4c Camry is closer to a base model TCH. This is very subjective though. What's the value, if any, of V6 performance?

terry92270 · September 2006

Exactly. It is always in the eye of the beholder....

We had always purchased the V6 Camry. Once, I tested a 4, at the sales manager's suggestion.... taking it on an extended test drive of 50 some miles. On the freeway, getting on and off of it, passing, I couldn't feel the difference!

Now in all-mountain driving, something I didn't do much of, except for maybe an hour at a pop, I might have felt the difference, but I wouldn't purchase a car based upon something that rarely happens....

tpe · September 2006

First off I don't own or have I ever driven any of these cars so my opinions are based purely on what I've read. My source is Consumer Reports which has reviewed the Camry 4cyl, Camry 6cyl, Camry hybrid, and Prius.

Camry 4cyl
0-60 in 9.6 secs
1/4 mile in 17.5 secs
speed at 1/4 mile 83 mph
overall mileage, 24 mpg

Camry hybrid
0-60 in 8.4 secs
1/4 mile in 16.6 secs
speed at 1/4 mile 89 mph
overall mileage, 34 mpg

Camry 6 cyl
0-60 in 7.1 secs
1/4 mile in 15.5 secs
speed at 1/4 mile 97 mph
overall mileage, 23 mpg

Prius
0-60 in 10.5 secs
1/4 mile in 18.1 secs
speed at 1/4 mile 78 mph
overall mileage, 44 mpg

So it appears you are both right and wrong. You're right, the Camry hybrid does perform better than the 4 cyl Camry. You're wrong, it does not perform as well as the 6 cyl. You're wrong, the Prius does not perform as well as a 4 cyl Camry. We've already agreed that the Prius is not as big a vehicle as the Camry. Make the Prius bigger and it will lag even further in the performance category.

Again, why does it make sense to compare the Prius to the Camry 4 cyl? The only motivation I can see for choosing to make this comparison is to magnify the benefits of hybrids. I'm not saying there isn't a significant benefit derived from the incorporation of hybrid technology. But lets try to be as objective as possible. The JD Powers assessment of 9-10 mpg seems valid to me and it is still significant.

kdhspyder · September 2006

There are a couple of nuances not shown in the 'pure' data from CR.

BTW, there is a somewhat better source for fuel economy numbers on hybrid vehicles than CR. CR tests are done once with results that are anecdotal at best given the driver, the course and the way the testing is done. At GreenHybrid.com one can see the results of thousands of data points in a neutral database. CR found in it's one test of the Prius and the TCH, 44 mpg and 34 mpg respectively. At GreenHybrid.com the middle 50% of reported gas tanks are 45-50 mpg and 35-39 mpg for the Prius and TCH.

To me a database of thousands of data points is always more valid than a single test.

What looking at the 'pure' data from CR or C&D or Edmunds or any other test is that it shows what the current vehicle capabilities are. It's a reference for performance. What these tests don't convey is how the data applies to the buying public.

This is marketing; i.e. not the selling side but understanding what the market is and what it expects. Toyota in this case and Honda as well do an excellent job of providing vehicles that will appeal to the next wave of buyers. Typically these buyers are coming out of older vehicles such in my case where I had driven 4c Camry's since 1995 until this past Nov. All 3 of these 4c Camry's was perfectly acceptable in terms of room and performance. The options I had were another, newer 4c Camry with significantly more power and room or a Prius with similar power and room to the previous three Camry's I had been driving. Both the new Camry and the Prius were in the same price range when comparably equipped.

This is why so many compare the Prius to the 4c Camry. Current Prius buyers ( not the early adopters ) are moving to this vehicle in lieu of the 4c Camry since it matches or as in my case exceeds the vehicles from which they are coming. Having been in 4c Camry's for the better part of 10 years I knew that the fuel economy I would get would be about 30 mpg on a daily basis ( belies CR's anecdotal test also ) in favor of the realworld 48 mpg as suggested by the GreenHybrid database. My actual fuel economy now is just over 50 mpg in moderate weather.

Another 'nuance' where understanding the market is far more important than comparing isolated tests is in the TCH. In January of this year if you wanted to buy a V6 Camry ( 2006 model ) you got a 3.0L engine with about 190 hp ( SAE ) and performance of 8.3 sec 0-60, which is exactly where the TCH's performance numbers fall.

In March the remarkable new V6 with 268 hp and performance times as you note above came to market in the new '07 Camry. But the current midsized auto buyer for the last 15 years, whether driving a Taurus, Intrepid, Camry or Accord has been driving a 170-210 hp vehicle. Unless one is a performance enthusiast this power is all any typical driver needs. Thus the new TCH is slotted to be from right where the 'emerging' new car shopper is coming. ' 190 horses? Yep that's just what I was driving.'

The buyer of new V6 Toyota now has the option of the quickest V6 ICE on the market in a moderately-priced midsized auto or a very capable 'V6' with extraordinary fuel economy.

Thus the Prius appeals to a typical 4c buyer who wants significantly better fuel economy ( 60% ) and not give up any performance from their current drive. The TCH appeals to a V6 driver for the same reason with the same benefit ( similar performance to the previous generation V6's but with the fuel economy of the current Gen Corolla/Civic ).

Both cases illustrate how much in-depth marketing has gone into the placement of these products from a technological perspective not to mention the demographic and economic aspects as well.

tpe · September 2006

I think that you're missing my point. I don't dispute that there are people who cross shop the Prius and Camry 4 cyl. What I dispute is using these two vehicles to conclude that hybrids achieve a 20 mpg advantage over their counterparts.

I also agree that the vast majority of drivers don't need the power offered by the new Camry 6cyl. but if it comes with better mpg than the car it was replacing, why not? In fact its only 1-2 mpg worse than the 4 cyl mileage. Its funny I've heard people comment that instead of making the Camry 30% more powerful Toyota should have chosen to make it 30% more fuel efficient. As if you can trade one for the other.

I don't agree that Consumer Reports mileage figures are "anectdotal". They are achieved in a very consistent and controlled method from one vehicle to the next. On the other had a website dedicated to hybrids is not likely to have a "neutral" database. Granted its much larger but the hybrid owners submitting information probably don't represent an accurate cross section of all hybrid owners. There are many reports of people buying hybrids and being dissapointed with the mileage they were getting. Someone like this might go to GreenHybrid once and post his figures as a protest but probably wouldn't continue to update. On the other hand I suspect that someone like yourself posts mileage data on a regular basis. Not that its inaccurate but you probably drive at the conservative end for most hybrid drivers.

You stated that there is no way Toyota could make a 2800 lb Camry. The Prius is 2890 lbs., and that's with a 100 lb battery pack? So if the Prius really is comparable in size to a Camry then why can't Toyota make a 2800 lb Camry?

Here's a question that you might have the answer to. Why do all the hybrids have CVTs while they are almost non-existent on other vehicles. This further distorts the benefits of hybrid technology because, I believe, just about every vehicle would get another 1-2 mpg with a CVT.

john500 · September 2006

I, at first, thought that Toyota was doing a masterful marketing job by making sure that there was no comparison for the Toyota Prius. This would ensure that no one would see what the impact of a hybrid system really had on the mpg. In my mind, probably the best comparison would be to take a vehicle with a similar weight (ie 2900 lbs) and acceleration (10-11 s 0-60 mph) for comparison. The best non-hybrid with those specs would likely get 32-34 mpg versus 44 mpg for the Prius. This is about a 40 % gain. I believe the value should be expressed as a percentage versus an absolute gain. For example, the Chevy Silverado hybrid got about 17 mpg versus about 15 mpg for the non-hybrid. Two mpg may appear insignificant, however, it is more than a 10 % improvement. A hybrid system like the Prius would probably yield 21 mpg (40 % or 6 mpg) in the Siverado.

tpe · September 2006

For the most part I agree. I don't think a perfect comparison should require that the strictly ICE weigh the same. I think it should be allowed to benefit from the slightly reduced weight of not having a battery pack. I also think that it should have a CVT, just like the hybrid. So in this case you would be talking about a 2800 lb vehicle with a CVT whose performance was comparable to the Prius. This hypothetical vehicle might get slightly better mileage than the 32-34 estimate you gave but definitely in the ballpark. I do agree that in assessing the added efficiency derived from a hybrid it should be expressed as a percentage. My estimate would be more like 25-30% gain and that would be for Toyota's hybrid system. Slightly less for Honda's system. It would also depend a lot on the type of driving you did. If it was mostly city then you would benefit more. Mostly highway then you'd benefit less.

25-30% is a huge increase in fuel efficiency so I'm definitely not knocking hybrids. I'm just opposed to exageration.

kdhspyder · September 2006

Since the Prius has no ICE counterpart the only comparo's are to vehicles like the 4c Camry/Accord/Sonata or Matrix or Jetta TDI. The hybrid system offers about a 50% benefit to the gassers and is about equal to the TDI. It has to be compared to something.

Regarding the TCH vs ICE V6 here again it's a matter of product placement. The TCH performs like a V6, it just gets much better fuel economy - again about 50% improvement. The potential owner has two options, economy or performance.

CR data is anecdotal by definition since it concerns only one test vehicle AFAIK. The GH database covers data being entered from all over the continent. While there may be some bias ( both postiviely and negatively ) in the database by using the 'middle 50%' of values eliminated the two extremes and gives what should be a realworld expectation. My own experience falls right there in the very middle as I would have expected. Certainly some may be disappointed but there are often other underlying factors. As a matter of fact I can state that from my own experiences that I can take anyone's Prius or TCH and obtain exactly the expected values for fuel economy.

The current Gen 5 and Gen 6 Camry couldn't be made as a 2800# vehicle, it's just too large. The Prius is about the same size as the past Gen 3 and Gen 4 Camry's.

kdhspyder · September 2006

If you are interested in doing a weight to weight, size to size comparison then as pointed out by another astute observer the Toyota Matrix is nearly identical to the Prius in size and weight

Prius:
1.5L Atkinson cycle + HSD
wheelbase : 106.3"
curb wgt : 2890 lbs
seat 5
Pass volume : 96.2 cu ft
cargo volume: 16.1 cu ft

GH fuel economy : 45-50 mpg ( EPA combined 55 mpg )

Matrix:
1.8L Otto cycle
wheelbase : 102.4"
curb wgt : 2778 lbs
seats 5
Pass volume : 96.2 cu ft
cargo volume: 21.8

EPA combined FE : 31 mpg

to complete the comparison:
Camry:
2.4L Otto cycle
wheelbase : 109.3"
curb wgt : 3307 lbs
seats 5
Pass volume : 101.4 cu ft
cargo volume: 15.0

EPA combined FE : 29 mpg

larsb · September 2006

BMW Hydrogen7 - best use so far of hydrogen technology?

BMW Hydrogen 7: Industrializing hydrogen technologies.

The BMW Hydrogen 7 has successfully completed the entire Product Development Process (PDP) obligatory for all new BMWs. In this process, all components of the new technology were integrated into the overall vehicle according to the same challenging criteria applied to "regular" production cars. The BMW Hydrogen 7 is not a hand made concept car, but rather, a milestone in industrializing hydrogen technologies for automotive use.

tpe · September 2006

The EPA is about to drastically change the way it computes fuel efficiency. Why? because everyone knows their current system does not reflect real world driving conditions/styles and does not produce real world estimates. I'm sure the EPA's results and methodology will still be considered anectdotal by your definition. That's fine. Most people, like yourself, have an established mindset. They will dismiss data that doesn't support their beliefs and latch onto the data that does.

http://www.popsci.com/popsci/automotivetech/1601278451cca010vgnvcm1000004eecbccd- rcrd.html

BTW, Edmunds is conducting a long term road test on the 2004 Prius. After 40k miles they are averaging 41.4 mpg. These guys must drive with the parking brake on. They are even below Consumer's Reports anectdotal information and way off GreenHybrids definitive mileage values.

Here's an experiment to try. Do a google search on "real world toyota prius mileage". You will get far more hits for articles with derogatory comments. So while Consumer Reports might only represent 1 source this represents 1000s. Far more than are posting on GreenHybrid.

terry92270 · September 2006

I agree.

One thing I have learned reading these forums is that they typical poster here, mostly those who are what the media would consider "green sold" and more activist in the environment, recycling, conserving, are certainly no longer indicative of the typical Hybrid buyer.

While that once was the case, (them being "typical") as the base of those buying Hybrids expands, most now might be buying who only wish to save money on gasoline, and never practice any kind of "green" activities whatsoever, and are never "coasting", "pulsing", and whatever else is involved in maximizing mileage.

One study found that nearly 90% of current Hybrid buyers never eat granola! :surprise:

kdhspyder · September 2006

Actually I consider the EPA tests to be a benchmark because while they are artificial as you correctly note they are done in exactly the same manner for every vehicle under controlled circumstances.

From this benchmark then adjustments can be made for individual factors ( YMMV ) plus and minus around the EPA's testing criteria. I find that my results exactly equal the EPA's results - when adjusted for individual driving characteristics. Specifically, for the Prius

EPA values ( it assumes 55/45 split Highway/City )
60 C / 51 H / 55 mpg Combined

My personal values ( 85/15 split Highway/City )
My EPA value should be 52.3 mpg using the 85/15 split. actually it's now 50.5 to 51.5 mpg Combined.

EPA testing criteria:
EPA testing is done in an enclosed environment at about 75 deg with no weather factors, on a dynometer ( flat terrain ), on a fully warmed up engine, with no AC or heater loads.
The City part is done at an average speed of 28 mph.
The Highway part is done at an average speed of 48 mph.

The adjustments:
A. The environment of the EPA testing is similar to a Spring, Fall, mild Summer day, at sealevel; for example San Diego or the Mid Atlantic coastal areas. This is my environment so there is no adjustment needed here from Spring to Fall. Zero effect
B. By necessity I must drive with some warmup period for each commute so there is a slight negative effect from the EPA benchmark - 4%
C. The City driving I do at 25-40 mph is roughly equivalent to the EPA testing so there's no adjustment here. Zero effect
D. The Highway driving I do is slightly faster than the EPA testing at an average of about 55 mph rather than 48 mph. This has a very slight negative effect from the EPA benchmark. -1%

Thus from the 52.3 mpg EPA value that I should be obtaining I actually only obtain about 50-51 mpg - due mainly to the warmup effect ( -4% ).

Other factors may enter into the equation which positively or negatively effect the result. 6 are able to be quantified:
Cold weather : -10%
Rainstorms : -15%
Severe winds : -15% to + 5%
vehicle loading : -5% to -15%
Highspeed driving over 70 mph : -10%
Short trips : -20% ( this is the real killer since the warmup period is the entire trip )

BTW this is true for all vehicles. It's just easier to quantify the results in a Prius or TCH because the trips are graphed and one can see the exact effects of each factor.

tpe · September 2006

I kind of consider EPA figures to be benchmarks also. Not necessarily accurate but good for comparing one vehicle to another. With the exception of hybrids. These tests were developed before hybrids existed and the EPA admits that the unique characteristics of a hybrid distort the results. They are overhauling their methodology to account for this. After the EPA incorporates this new system will you still consider their results to be benchmarks?

terry92270 · September 2006

"The Highway driving I do is slightly faster than the EPA testing at an average of about 55 mph"

I was the one last week, in the Esclade, and high beams, on highway 163, trying to push you over to the side of the road! :mad:

kdhspyder · September 2006

On the 4 lane rural highway between the Outer Banks and VA where there are, count 'em, 6 speed traps or cruisers or unmarked cruisers on a 50 mi stretch where 62 is mostly safe, 65 is looking for a ticket and 66 is demanding a ticket everyone normally goes 55-62 mph.

On the last 10 mi of Interstate in VA with a 55 mph limit I once saw the local VA police pull over 10 vehicles in a row, with an additional 5 cruisers lined up - waiting - hiding over an overpass rise. On the center median one of the officers had parked his F250 facing the flow of traffic 'gunning' every vehicle coming down the highway.

This is the environment of my 150 mi daily commute. I also do 70-80 on I95 in NJ as does everyone else.

kdhspyder · September 2006

These tests were developed before hybrids existed and the EPA admits that the unique characteristics of a hybrid distort the results.

This is so absolutely false such that you don't understand what the EPA test are. They are physical tests in controlled circumstances. If you or I or anyone drives exactly in the same manner and in the same environment as the test are done then you or I or anyone will achieve exactly the EPA results. It's not magic, it has nothing to do with hybrids it's just physics.

What is different is that we do not as a rule drive under the EPA conditions thus the EPA is adjusting it's testing to try to better emulate today's actual driving conditions.

I have often driven for 10-50 miles in EPA City conditions and achieved FE values in excess of 60 mpg. It can be done by any knowlegable Prius driver.

The new EPA testing certainly will still be a benchmark as long as it's done in a controlled environment and done the same for all vehicles. However it will have no effect on me at all. If it says that the Prius 'should' get only 45 mpg combined iso 55 mpg combined then I will just exceed the EPA estimates by 10%.

Nothing will change in my vehicle or in the way I drive so I will still get about 50-51 mpg in mild weather and 45-46 mpg in cold weather.

Hybrids will still get superior fuel economy to similar vehicles in their class. It's another tempest in a teapot. Those with an open mind will find that, depending on their individual driving characteristics of course, that they will typically get 45-50 mpg from a Gen2 Prius. TCH owners will still obtain 35-39 mpg in their daily drives. Nothing will change in the vehicles so nothing will change in the actual results.

It's just that the actual results will look better in comparison to the standards.

explorerx4 · September 2006

my sister has a prius. on the 500 mile highway trip just short of 50 mpg is normal. the car is usually loaded down too, so that is impressive.
drving locally here in ct on in a cold late november the computer read 35 mpg average. driving up my street, the instantaneous mileage dropped to 8, until my bil shut off the display.
i just don't think the mileage estimates are a slam dunk.

tpe · September 2006

I've never stated that hybrids won't get better mileage than other vehicles in their class. They definitely will.

Have you done any research on how the EPA's new testing methods will affect hybrids? If you have then you would realize it will have a bigger impact on hybrid mileage ratings than it will on other vehicles. The new results will still show that hybrids provide better fuel economy just not at the level previously indicated. I'm fine with that. It will be more accurate and it will be the new benchmark.

tpe · September 2006

If you do a web search on "prius mileage" you will find that is pretty much the consensus. The rated highway mileage is fairly accurate. The city mileage is totally out of whack. The Prius's city mileage rating of 60 doesn't come close to reality. That will be addressed with the new EPA rating method. The Prius will then have a city rating of around 42 mpg. Still excellent but no where near this ridiculous 60 mpg figure. Average mileage is generally computed by taking 55% hwy mileage and 45% city mileage. This significant reduction in the city mileage will result in the Prius EPA rating ending in the mid 40s, where it belongs.

backy · September 2006

Overall: Simpler, cheaper hybrid is a dandy idea, but the aging Vue isn't the best showplace.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/reviews/healey/2006-09-14-green-line-healey_- x.htm

tpe · September 2006

Below is a description of how the govt. and Consumer Reports determine a vehicle's fuel efficiency. I'm not sure why anyone would refer to CR's test results as anectdotal unless they just don't understand the meaning of that word.

Details of the tests

The vehicles

Our tests. We anonymously buy production models at retail. All vehicles are preconditioned for about 2,000 miles. Tire pressures are set to manufacturer specifications.

Government tests. Automakers are allowed to use hand-built prototypes.

Driving conditions

Our tests. All testing is done outdoors year-round, never during precipitation, with all results adjusted to a standard temperature of 60° F. For gasoline-electric hybrids, we start our tests with the battery at the charge level you normally find--about half. A calibrated fuel-flow meter is used to measure gas consumption.

Government tests. EPA fuel-economy tests are done in a laboratory with the test vehicle's drive wheels resting on a dynamometer, which has a roller that allows the automobile to simulate driving while remaining stationary. Gasoline consumption is calculated based on the amount of carbon emitted from the vehicle's tailpipe, which the EPA says is more accurate than a fuel gauge.

To test all-wheel-drive vehicles, automakers and the EPA remove the front prop shaft and adjust the inertia weight on the dynamometer to account for four-wheel-drive factors. To test hybrid fuel economy, the EPA method allows automakers to start with a fully charged battery.

The EPA tests represent driving in southern California at 75° F on a road with no curves or grades, which is ideal for optimizing fuel economy.

City mpg

Our tests. These tests are stop-and-go city-driving simulations on our test track, which has a total of 18 stops and 4 minutes of total idle time. Top speed is 40 mph. Two different testers each drive three runs for a total of six 2-minute, 40-second trials on every test vehicle. Total test time is approximately 16 minutes.

Government tests. The city test simulates stop-and-go city driving with 23 stops and includes 5 minutes and 35 seconds of total idle time. Top speed is 56 mph. A professional driver manipulates the gas and brake pedals to follow a prescribed schedule of acceleration and braking while monitoring progress on a real-time graph on a computer display. The test runs for 31 minutes.

Highway mpg

Our tests. The highway tests are run on a specific section of state Route 2 near our test facility in central Connecticut. Two testers make eight 5-mile runs at a constant 65 mph. The tests are run in both directions to limit the effects of wind and grade differences. Each run is timed and limited to 4 minutes, 38 seconds. Total test time is approximately 37 minutes.

Government tests. These tests simulate free-flow rural and interstate-highway driving. The professional driver starts from zero, maintains a fairly smooth speed averaging 48 mph, then slows to zero over a prescribed 12-minute, 30-second schedule. While under way, speeds range from 30 to 60 mph.

Other differences

Our tests. We run a test that the government doesnt require: a one-day trip test, which reflects a mixed driving cycle. Five different engineers drive back-to-back on the same day over a 31-mile route that includes 26 percent (8.2 miles) freeway, 11 percent (3.6 miles) highway, and 63 percent (19.2 miles) stop-and-go driving conditions.

Government tests. Automakers conduct the fuel-economy tests and submit their results to the EPA for certification. The EPA retests 10 to 15 percent of the vehicles. The EPA says that less than 10 percent of the retests are significantly different than the original automaker tests.

The math

Our tests. Trials within each type of test are averaged and corrected for ambient temperature to produce our published city and highway mpg ratings and our one-day trip rating. Our published overall mpg estimate is calculated as an equally weighted harmonic average of the city, highway, and one-day-trip results.

Government tests. The raw test results are adjusted downward by 10 percent for city mpg and 22 percent for highway mpg, and a combined mpg is calculated as a weighted harmonic average using the two in a 55/45 city/highway ratio. Those adjusted figures are the ones published on vehicle fuel-economy stickers.

john500 · September 2006

Good post. A large concern with the government (or EPA) test is the absence of a air drag factor and the unreasonable speed used for the highway test. The CR test is probably very close to real world mpg. Everything is there (engine break in, reasonable speeds, tests are replicated several times). I think I might get one of those in-line fuel meters for my car to negate the "extrapolation" effect from estimating the amount of gasoline consumed by volume replacement (ie refilling to full).

tpe · September 2006

I've driven several vehicles that have been tested by CR. I find their mileage ratings to be pretty accurate. In my cars I get within 1-2 mpg of their figures. They do achieve the EPA's hwy rating of 50 mpg for the Prius. It's the 60 mpg city mileage that needs to be completely dismissed. In fact I've read that Toyota ends up fielding a lot of complaints from Prius buyers that feel they've been somewhat duped. Toyota is put in a tough spot. These exagerated ratings help them sell cars but result in dissapointed customers. My guess is that a rating of 40/50 city/hwy would be more accurate. Still best in its class.

larsb · September 2006

18 September 2006 - General Motors says it will have a fuel-cell vehicle in production by 2015 at the latest.

http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news.php?newsId=4802

kdhspyder · September 2006

Have you done any research on how the EPA's new testing methods will affect hybrids? If you have then you would realize it will have a bigger impact on hybrid mileage ratings than it will on other vehicles

Yes I have done research on what effect the new testing parameters might have on the EPA ratings. Ss reported in several places since earlier this year the ratings on the vehicles and on the window stickers might change 15-30% mainly in reducing the City values to more 'realistic' numbers.

Note what Toyota has done with the new TCH as compared to the Prius and HH. For the TCH the City/Highway values are 40/38 or about an 8% difference between the two.

For both the Prius and the HH the values are 60/51 and 32/27 respectively. Each difference here is 20% between the two. The city being very very optimistic. Attainable but optimistic.

Despite any ratings changes however nothing will change in the vehicles themselves so the GreenHybrid values will remain unchanged. just the stickers will change.

terry92270 · September 2006

I agree with you, kdhspyder.

The fact is, nothing printed on a label, or passed out by the Government, can stop the glowing word-of-mouth from actual owners about how much they are $aving with every fill-up.

Less gasoline consumed equals less pollution in the air, and more conservation of our resources. Alone, one car or one thousand cannot make much difference. Tens of thousands can. It's all one-step-at-a-time....

kdhspyder · September 2006

Agree that this correctly describes the differences between the two tests. There is one very clear omission which is not brought up by CR.... 'warm up' time.

In the EPA tests the vehicles are first warmed to operating temperatures at which time the testing is done. From CR's description they start up the vehicles and go into the testing at both the City and Highway methods. This is realistic of what for many might be a typical trip of 5-15 min. However it is not realistic for a driver of a longer commute or one in heavy traffic for an hour or two for say 10-20 miles.

This doesn't affect only hybrids, all vehicles have this 'warm up' penalty. This may be why CR's Fuel Economy values are so consistently low for every vehicle in relation to the admittedly artificial EPA tests. Essentially in CR's system all vehicles are tested in the least efficient criteria while in the EPA test it might be stated that they are tested in the most efficient method.

Please note from an earlier post that I mentioned that there are several negative factors that might reduce fuel economy not only in the hybrids but any vehicle.
Other factors may enter into the equation which positively or negatively effect the result. 6 are able to be quantified:
Cold weather : -10%
Rainstorms : -15%
Severe winds : -15% to + 5%
vehicle loading : -5% to -15%
Highspeed driving over 70 mph : -10%
Short trips : -20% ( this is the real killer since the warmup period is the entire trip )

Short trips in any vehicle will normally reduce fuel economy by 20% or more depending on other factors. Driving at 65 iso 48-55 will deteriorate it additionally.

Good data though in your post.

kdhspyder · September 2006

I've driven several vehicles that have been tested by CR. I find their mileage ratings to be pretty accurate. In my cars I get within 1-2 mpg of their figures. They do achieve the EPA's hwy rating of 50 mpg for the Prius. It's the 60 mpg city mileage that needs to be completely dismissed. In fact I've read that Toyota ends up fielding a lot of complaints from Prius buyers that feel they've been somewhat duped. Toyota is put in a tough spot. These exagerated ratings help them sell cars but result in dissapointed customers.

Since my own driving for the last 25 years has been more of the marathon type vs sprint type I've found the CR values of the 4c Camry's and the Prius to be too low. All the Camry's consistently achieved 31 mpg on an annual basis while the Prius is currently at 48.5 mpg. But my shortest trips are normally 1 hour.

I agree that the 60 mpg figure is both a selling point and a point of contention. If an owner has the hybrid system explained in detail and understands how the figures come to be made then it's not an issue normally. If a buyer shows up and drives off with no explanation of how to use the vehicle much less maximize the fuel economy it's not a wonder that many are disappointed. It's just a matter of education.

Again the EPA values are just the result of physcial tests with specific parameters. If one can drive to these 'artificial' criteria then one will achieve the EPA values. Some drivers can do this all day long because their personal situation allows them to do so. To dismiss this out-of-hand is not any more valid than saying that all drivers should get 60 mpg in City.

Yes some drivers feel 'duped' - mainly because they weren't educated enough about the vehicle - whereas some are ecstatic to be able to achieve 55 mpg annually and higher.

terry92270 · September 2006

From reading these forums, no doubt "some" always feel duped or cheated, for even the slightest of things...

Most of us would be happy as hell getting 10 MPG over what we are, and that assuredly, by anyone's measure, the TCH will achieve, with no loss of performance.

tpe · September 2006

I think that CR's city figures represent stop and go conditions that may exceed what some people consider typical city driving. This results in them arriving at very conservative city numbers. However their highway figures aren't all that far off what the EPA puts out. CR also provides a mileage based on a 150 mile trip. For the Prius it was 48 mpg. For the 4 cyl Camry they got 29 mpg. That may be closer to the type of driving that you do. I'm still very skeptical that anyone is consisitently able to achieve 60 mpg city mileage in the Prius.

larsb · September 2006

States buying more hybrids than gassers

For the first time, the state's public agencies bought more hybrid cars than standard gasoline-powered cars in the past 2006 model year, according to the state Department of General Administration.

In the 2006 model year, the state bought 222 Toyota Prius models compared with 218 gas-powered vehicles through state contracts managed by the general administration department. State agencies also bought 206 Ford Escape hybrids and 390 vehicles that can run on gasoline and ethanol.

gagrice · September 2006

I agree that it is good. We will get some consistent data on the longevity of the hybrid technologies. If they become a maintenance nightmare you can bet they will not purchase as many the next go around.

terry92270 · September 2006

The second paragraph is talking about California, I believe.

They have extensive knowledge of alternative-fueled and mix-fueled cars, as they have been buying them for almost two decades now, since Ronald Reagan, followed by Jerry Brown, first initiated the experimental process.....and they have not found any maintenance "nightmares".

So although for many States, this is a new practice, for California it is the culmination of a twenty year practice.

moparbad · September 2006

Has the hybrid revolution stalled?

larsb · September 2006

Let's hope not.

The true test will be the next six months when a LOT of things start going BAD for us hybrid advocates:

1. The tax credit gets smaller and eventually gets really small.
2. Gas prices stay low, in the $2.25 range.
3. More hybrid vehicles hit the market, meaning more choices BUT not much tax incentive to move them.

If people keep snatching up hybrids, then all is well. If not, then it will indicate a "saturation point."

Problem is though, there are 12 more hybrid models coming to the USA by the end of the 2008 model year. Carmakers are going to eat a lot of metal if no one wants to buy those new cars.

terry92270 · September 2006

Gloom and Doom, Gloom and Doom! :P

All of the credits will be renewed and supplemented by more State credits, already in the legislative pipeline in dozens of States!

Please do not say there is no "guarantee". What are you guaranteed about anything?

tpe · September 2006

My personal guess is that the hybrid revolution will start to lose some steam. Partly due to currently dropping gas prices but to a smaller extent the realization that a dual (ICE/electric) system may not be the cleanest solution. Most hybrid enthusiasts are aware of the resurgence in EV interest. IMO, this actually works against hybrids. People that were entertaining the idea of buying a hybrid might now be thinking, lets go all the way with an EV. There really aren't any mainstream EVs available right now but it could instill a temporary paralysis in terms of making the buying decision. My prediction is that hybrids will remain popular for the next few years but the growth in popularity will slow.

tpe · September 2006

It would be interesting if the demand for hybrids completely disappeared. That would represent a major misstep for Toyota, a company which seemed incapable of being so wrong. Regardless of the future for hybrids their existence up to this point has advanced some worthwhile technologies that will endure.

larsb · September 2006

Toyota Increase Prius Production

Toyota Prius Production Increased By 50%

TOKYO, Sept 22, 2006; Reuters reported that Toyota Motor Corp. plans to increase production of its popular Prius hybrid cars in Japan to 300,000 units in 2007, a rise of 50 percent, business daily Nihon Keizai reported on Friday.

Japan's top auto maker dominates the market for hybrid cars, which twin a conventional engine with an electric motor to improve mileage, and is keen to spread the system as the main alternative to today's internal combustion engines.

moparbad · September 2006

Very encouraging.

kdhspyder · September 2006

Since the volumeis increasing ( For reference; Prius production ) why would you suppose that hybrids might suddenly dissappear? Do they annoy you so much that you want to do away with them?

While Toyota's and Honda's are noted for the engineering and production efficiencies and reliability.... the marketing arms of each might be the best part of each company. There are marketing segments each has been supplying that no one new existed. Some vehicle makers, now 10+ years later, are just beginning to supply these 'newly discovered' segments.

Examples are plenty but just for one:
Toyota's hybrid vehicles - as a brand - are nearly as large as the entire Mazda line or VW. With the growth of the TCH it may pass both and maybe even BMW.

Ditto the Scion line possibly.

terry92270 · September 2006

I agree, not to mention the entries this year and next from GM/Saturn, Nissan and Honda. Even Ford, has plans for more if they don't merge with GM, I suppose.

You just cannot post here or in Electric Vehicle Pros & Cons without being ridiculed or being personally attacked by the two or three EV zealots who are seemingly always at hand, waiting to pounce and agressively challenge anyone suggesting merit in any other technology.

It just drives people away...

yerth10 · September 2006

In the first 8 months of this year, 168810 hybrid vehicles were sold in the US market.
Pretty soon it will touch the 2005 tally of 205,000. Gas prices generally fall in
Fall, but will increase again in winter.

Last year Chinese bought 6 million vehicles, this year they will buy 7 million +. As
they keep buying more, the gas prices will definitely go up.

Even if they go down, automakers could remove some extras and price the hybrids at
a slightly lower price.

stevedebi · September 2006

"Very encouraging. "

Indeed, the price of the Prius is going to plummet (driving resale values down), as they produce more units.

terry92270 · September 2006

Economically, that just isn't in the cards, IMO.

All automobiles depreciate in the same way, no matter what you pay for them. You cannot look at a car's depreciation in the same way as one does most anything else. They are not investments.

stevedebi · September 2006

"All automobiles depreciate in the same way, no matter what you pay for them. You cannot look at a car's depreciation in the same way as one does most anything else. They are not investments."

I don't think you understoold my point. When the big 3 were offering their incentives last year, the resale value of their vehicles that people were trying to sell or trade took a big hit. It is always true that when vehicles are sold at a "discount", the used models of that vehicle will sell for less as used vehicles. It is all a matter of perception. I'm not talking about the new vehicles depreciating, I'm talking about used models being worth less. The whole point was that if newer hybrids are selling for a lot less due to over production (for the market forces), then those people who own hybrids now - and who think they will get top used dollar (because they can get good money now if they sell, while the hybrids are popuar and not as widely available), will be in for a surprise at sell/trade-in time.

It's not a matter of the way it depreciates, it is the public perception. Used car prices are largely driven by what the public will pay. When the public sees large discounts, they are willing to pay less for a used model of the same vehicle.

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