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The Future of Hybrid Technology

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Comments

  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Big whoop if an 18 MPG SUV gets bumped up to 22.5 MPG. Who's gonna pay extra to get that tiny bump?

     

    I agree, especially when you can get that kind of mileage with the diesel that is available in the big 3 trucks. Plus the much greater towing capacity. I don't see much advantage to hybrid trucks. I'm not sure of their motivation unless it is to meet the new CAFE truck standards.
  • yerth10yerth10 Member Posts: 431
    Will it make sense to classify Hybrids as

    H1 - Mild - Stop & Start

         Chevy Silverado, Citroen C3

     

    H2 - Partial - Motor supplementing Engine

         Honda Civic / Accord

     

    H3 - Full - Motor powering vehicle at low speed

         Toyota Prius, Ford Escape

     

    H4 - Plugin - Facility to charge from grid

     

    H5 - Plugin/Bifuel - Facility to have 2 fuels like

         Gasolene / Ethanol

         Diesel / Biodiesel

         Gasolene / LPG

         combined with Plugin facility.

     

    H6 - Plugin/FC - Fuel Cell along with Plugin.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I like H5, more options.....
  • electrictroyelectrictroy Member Posts: 564
    The usual terms are "parallel" (wheels driven by both engine & motor) and "serial" (engine has no connection to the wheels).

     

    All the hybrids made by Ford, Toyota, Honda are parallel.

     

    Some people would rather see a serial hybrid (engine not connected to wheels), because they say it would be more efficient.

     

    troy
  • robertsmxrobertsmx Member Posts: 5,525
    Some people would rather see a serial hybrid, because they say it would be more efficient.

     

    These people may not understand pros and cons to the extent engineers do. Honda showcased a hybrid scooter prototype last year which has a dual hybrid set up... Series mode in cruising situations, and parallel mode in power demand situations. You can read about it here.

     

    It is always about compromises.
  • electrictroyelectrictroy Member Posts: 564
    I don't know. I think serial hybrid makes sense. You could drive about 100 miles on pure Electric for your daily commute & recharge at night.

     

    Meanwhile the engine just sits there until you take your weekend trip to see grandma/grandpa -or- to visit the beach some ~200 miles a way. Then the engine turns on & charges the battery.

     

    A serial hybrid provides the best of both worlds:

    - clean EV power for daily commutes

    - an engine that can provide unlimited range

     

    .

     

    Like I said, none of the current hybrids are serial (no connection between engine & wheels). They are parallel.

     

    Troy
  • robertsmxrobertsmx Member Posts: 5,525
    What you’re asking for is Honda EV-Plus with ICE used as on-board (electricity) generator. This will require a very powerful electric motor (Honda’s AC motor tops out at 80 HP) and ultra-capacitor/battery pack to match the power demand against whatever the generator can provide. You’re already up to 3500 lb. vehicle with EV-Plus (even if 500 lb could be shaved off, that would still make up for 37.5 lb for each HP).

     

    At this point, we don’t know what the fuel economy would be like with the generator behind the battery pack.

     

    And yes, I too said there aren't any hybrid cars that are serial (diesel locomotives, and the Honda's Hybrid Scooter prototype are though).
  • electrictroyelectrictroy Member Posts: 564
    Yeah, but a serial hybrid would be designed for only 1/4 or 1/2 the range of the EV-plus, and the battery would also be downsized to 1/4 or 1/2... thereby making the car lighter.

     

    Fuel economy would be irrelevant if you're driving around on pure EV every day.

     

    Troy
  • daysailerdaysailer Member Posts: 720
    Oh, it may SEEM to make sense to the casual observer - until you consider all those pesky compromises that Robertsmx mentioned.

     

    First, a series hybrid requires that the electric drive provide the FULL power requirement of the vehicle, unlike the parallel hybrid where electric drive bears only part of the burden. This entails increased mass which requires more power which entails more mass .. etc. But, you might say that the ICE (and its requisite generator) can be smaller, and you'd be right. BUT, as the ICE/generator power output decreases, the battery capacity must increase - and batteries are even more massive and require more propulsive power which entails more mass, etc. But, you may say, transient power requirements can be addressed by capacitive storage which offers high power density (although low energy density), and again you'd be right, and this would reduce mass somewhat (but still more than a parallel hybrid), but you mentioned EV operation and utility grid charging. In fact, you suggest 100mile range on battery alone which is tantamount to asking the most abbitiuous EV yet produced to bear the ADDITIONAL burden of an ICE, generator, fuel system and other ancillaries. EV technology has yet to produce a practical vehicle due primarily to the low energy density and high cost of batteries, and you suggest further increases to vehicle mass and cost while increasing power requirements with the addition of the ICE et al!

     

    Compromises abound in any design - there is NO free lunch! Consequently, one must decide what objectives are realistic to pursue. If your objective is to extract the highest efficiency from a petroleum fueled vehicle, the parallel hybrid is the most promising technology to date and may even approach economic justification in the forseeable future. EV technology has yet to approach a practical replacement for the ICE vehicle and cost remains in the twilight zone. To suggest adding more cost, mass, etc by adding series, plug-in hybid technology will not improve the picture. It's no coincidence that Chrysler has chosen their gargantuan Sprinter van as a platform for plug-in hybrid windmill flailing.
  • robertsmxrobertsmx Member Posts: 5,525
    EV-Plus had an “ideal” driving range of something like 120 miles. ¼ to ½ of that would be just 40-60 miles under ideal conditions, and worse in less than ideal.
  • electrictroyelectrictroy Member Posts: 564
    Daysailor... I disagree.

     

    .

     

    EV Motor = ~100 hp peak/25hp sustained does not weigh that much. Prius carries two of these.

     

    Battery = ~50 miles would be about 200 pounds... probably the heaviest piece in the car...

     

    Engine = ~30 hp... just large enough to charge the battery when empty

     

    troy
  • robertsmxrobertsmx Member Posts: 5,525
    How have you arrived at these numbers? Battery pack will weigh depending on its size. And more likely than not, the 30 HP motor is going to be one of the heavier pieces in the car (besides the powerful electric motor, as well as the transmission).

     

    PS. NiMH battery pack in Civic Hybrid weighs just 44 lb (20 kg).
  • electrictroyelectrictroy Member Posts: 564
    I conferred with some EV experts (people who build electric cars for their own use!). Here's what they estimate:

     

    "Prius is about 3000lbs. Eliminate the NIMH battery pack and transmission and halve the gasoline engine to save 500lbs."

     

    "Add a 350lb NiMH battery pack for 50 miles of EV-only range and budget 150lbs toward a 100hp electric motor and you're done."

     

    "Weight is the same. And you now have a TRUE hybrid with EV only capability & unlimited range."

     

    troy
  • robertsmxrobertsmx Member Posts: 5,525
    You cannot cut the gasoline engine in half and trim the weight by 50%. It is not a linear relationship. Most of this discussion is based on assumptions and it won’t help to establish anything concrete. If things were that simple, you would have seen automotive giants step on it. Building anything involves enough compromises. You pick some for others, based on needs.

     

    And there is no “true” or “false” hybrid. Just two ways to go about hybrid design: Serial or Parallel. Or, it can be a combination of both (as in the Honda Hybrid Scooter Prototype).

     

    Take your guess why Honda engineers might have implemented series/parallel to co-exist in the hybrid system? Going with series only shouldn't have made a difference in any other way but improvement, correct?
  • electrictroyelectrictroy Member Posts: 564
    You only need 1/3rd the power of the Prius engine, which should be doable in half the weight.

     

    Another way to show weight isn't a problem is to take an electric car (e.g. Rav4-EV), subtract half the batteries and add the 39hp TDI engine found in the Smart. It weighs 30 pounds and has more than enough power.

     

    Now you have a Rav4 serial hybrid that can do 50 miles pure EV, weighs less, & has no distance limitation.

     

    troy
  • larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    Troy, are you talking about THIS RAV4:

     

    "Toyota has just introduced the $43,000 RAV4 EV, the first compact sport utility vehicle for the retail market fueled by household current."

     

    That one? That is not a serial hybrid, it's an EV.

     

    Where is info on the "serial hybrid RAV4" that has no distance limitation? I cannot find anything on the web about such a car.
  • robertsmxrobertsmx Member Posts: 5,525
    In theory, a lot of things are possible. As far as reality is concerned you did not respond to a question from me.

     

    Why do you think Honda engineers incorporated serial AND parallel mode of operation in Hybrid Scooter prototype?
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    "Toyota has just introduced the $43,000 RAV4 EV, the first compact sport utility vehicle for the retail market fueled by household current."

     

    No wonder they had a hard time selling them. That is pricey for that car. Probably $15K in batteries. I wonder if a guy could find a good buy on a used one.

     

    http://www.toyota.com/html/shop/vehicles/ravev/rav4ev_0_home/
  • railroadjamesrailroadjames Member Posts: 560
    Why is it so many times suggested that the hybrid battery in the hybrid cars is going to be soooo expensive at the end of the next 7-8 years. Remembering everything electronic usually drops in cost when marketing in mass numbers follows. Examples....VCR's, DVD's, Cellphones,Digital Cameras, etc. It is said that Big Screen TV's will eventually drop another 40-60% in the next 5 yrs. Why are there so many doubters out there with less than adequate info or is it just that some choose to be negitive?

    Culliganman(give a hybrid a break)

    PS..Car&Driver, MotorTrend, Consumer's Report ETC.. They can't all be wrong!
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Why are there so many doubters out there with less than adequate info or is it just that some choose to be negitive?

     

    Can you give me an example of a NiMH pack that has gone down in price? Every time I buy a new laptop battery they are more expensive. I think hybrid batteries will be the same. Someone just posted the price for a Prius battery at more than $5200. Hope you have something saved for a replacement or dump your car before the 100k miles is up.
  • electrictroyelectrictroy Member Posts: 564
    TROY WROTE: Another way to show weight isn't a problem is to take an electric car (e.g. Rav4-EV), subtract half the batteries and add the 39hp TDI engine..... Now you have a Rav4 serial hybrid.

     

    .

      

    LARS WROTE: That is not a serial hybrid, it's an EV.

     

    .

     

    Lars... where do I start? (rolls eyes) I explained in *clear english* that I was discussing a modified Rav4 EV to act like a Rav4 Serial Hybrid.

     

    troy
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I was discussing a modified Rav4 EV to act like a Rav4 Serial Hybrid.

     

    Honda makes some dandy little gen sets that could be used to keep the batteries charged up on longer trips.

     

    You can get an electric start 7000 watt unit for under 2 grand. It will run all day on 6 gallons of gas.
  • robertsmxrobertsmx Member Posts: 5,525
    Can you give me an example of a NiMH pack that has gone down in price? Every time I buy a new laptop battery they are more expensive.

     

    I don’t know about your laptop batteries but mine uses Li-ion batteries and they are expensive. Not so with NiMH. They are actually quite cheap and are much cheaper now than they used to be. I have a bunch of those at home.

     

    That said, how do you come up with replacement cost of battery packs?
  • larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    Aren't the batteries modular, meaning you can replace individually failed battery "packs" without replacing all of them?

     

    I know that as of a few months ago, Toyota was boasting as "never having replaced a Prius battery pack."
  • stevewastevewa Member Posts: 203
    It's true that Toyota has a modular battery with multiple packs that can in theory be serviced individually. My best guess is that at some point they will develop an exchange program where you pay a set amount and receive a reconditioned battery pack, then they take your old one and replace however many modules have expired. The biggest cost has got to be the labor to open up the metal can and actually test each module...
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    That said, how do you come up with replacement cost of battery packs?

     

    If you look at the price and parts sheet for the Prius you will see that the battery assembly is $4920 while each module is $259 each. That would be the least of my worries with a hybrid.

     

    My first two laptops used Nicad, The next one was NiMH while the last two are Li-ion.

     

    http://ozgrl.com/images/rearbo1.gif
  • robertsmxrobertsmx Member Posts: 5,525
    So, $15K was an exaggeration I believe. Still, do you have a link to price/parts sheet for Prius?
  • electrictroyelectrictroy Member Posts: 564
    Why worry? Hybird batteries are barely used. They'll last longer than the engine!

     

    troy
  • yerth10yerth10 Member Posts: 431
    Its 7 years since the 1st hybrids came into market

    and so far, so there is no problem with those batteries even after a vehicle travelling for 200,000 miles.

     

    However for another 7 years, this topic about batteries will continue, since that is the only point where the critics can talk about.

     

    But definitely the battery tech has improved as the Prius-II uses only 28 modules compared to 38 in Prius-I and yet it gives the same amount of power.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    So, $15K was an exaggeration I believe. Still, do you have a link to price/parts sheet for Prius?

     

    No exaggeration, these look like Toyota parts and price sheets to me

     

    For the Prius, there are $15,000 worth of parts related to the hybrid system alone:

      

    $5,153.24 for the hybrid electric motor/generator

    $4,920.39 for replacement battery

    $668 for "relay assy, hybrid vehicle"

    $1,250 for "computer, battery

    $970 for "computer, hybrid control"

      

    Plus many more. Check out the parts price sheets for the Prius:

    http://ozgrl.com/images/engine9.gif

    http://ozgrl.com/images/rearbo1.gif

    http://ozgrl.com/images/interi7.gif

      

    Not to mention the labor costs for any hybrid-related diagnosis and repair.
  • robertsmxrobertsmx Member Posts: 5,525
    For the Prius, there are $15,000 worth of parts related to the hybrid system alone

     

    So now we have moved on from batteries to "hybrid system", which includes the entire drive train. This is why I called it an exaggeration in the first place.

     

    How much do you think drivetrain in a $30K car costs to replace in its entirety?
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    How much do you think drivetrain in a $30K car costs to replace in its entirety?

     

    $15,000 less than the same car that is a hybrid?
  • stevewastevewa Member Posts: 203
    Well, a typical automatic transmission costs at least $3K, and that's included in the price of the "electric motor generator" because it's all one assembly. All modern autos computer systems are in the $1K+ price range.

     

    So I'd say there is a small incremental expense but nowhere near the $15K you're quoting.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    nowhere near the $15K you're quoting.

     

    That was directly off of the Toyota price sheets. It is not just a $4k battery & a $5k motor assembly. Much more than an ICE only vehicle.
  • larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    No link, just a total sales number:

     

    US hybrid sales double in January

    AWKnowledge (subscription), UK - 1 hour ago

    By AWKnowledge staff writer (SN).

     

    Hybrid sales in the US in January nearly doubled year-on-year, soaring 98.8% to 8,455 units.

     

    Here is a different link to the same data:

     

    http://www.greencarcongress.com/2005/02/january_2005_hy.html
  • electrictroyelectrictroy Member Posts: 564
    I'm an electrical engineer. I know what's inside these hybrids. There is NO way that a battery + a motor + DC/DC converter = $15,000. Absolutely not.

     

    $4000 tops (about $1000 per system + labor).

     

    If you expect me or anyone else to except "$15,000" you better PROVE it (a system-by-system breakdown), or keep silent.

     

    troy
  • SylviaSylvia Member Posts: 1,636
    So if you want to discuss batteries - see The Great Battery Debate and post there.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    If you expect me or anyone else to except "$15,000" you better PROVE it (a system-by-system breakdown), or keep silent.

     

    I looked at the price sheets from Toyota that were posted. They looked legitimate to me. Do you think someone would go to that much trouble to fake Toyota price sheets? Remember the Japanese mark replacement parts up a lot higher than US automakers.
  • robertsmxrobertsmx Member Posts: 5,525
    Remember the Japanese mark replacement parts up a lot higher than US automakers.

     

    Only if they are imported, as was the case with my 1988 Corolla GT-S. Unlike the 1988 Corolla sedan, GT-S parts were more expensive since they were imported and not readily available.

     

    What about European makes? Are they cheaper than vehicles made in America?
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    What about European makes? Are they cheaper than vehicles made in America?

     

    I don't know, you tell me. This was about someone refuting the prices on the Toyota Prius parts list. I guess they find it hard to believe that a battery pack will cost about 5 grand to replace, or each battery module is $259. I have no problem believing those prices as I have had to deal with repairs on our Lexus. And I can tell you they are not as inexpensive to maintain as my Suburban. One of the reasons I hated my 1978 Honda Accord was the rip-off prices for parts.
  • electrictroyelectrictroy Member Posts: 564
    I see $11,000. $5000 for the inverter/motor assembly & $5000 for the battery + $1000 for bits & pieces (labels, nuts, bolts, etcetera).

     

    That's insane. I could build a battery for cheaper than $5000. Do these price lists include labor?

     

    troy

     

    http://ozgrl.com/images/engine9.gif

    http://ozgrl.com/images/rearbo1.gif

    http://ozgrl.com/images/interi7.gif
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Do these price lists include labor?

     

    I have no idea. Those price sheets were posted by someone else on another thread. I would think that proprietary information is not given out readily. As more people pass the warranty period I would think we will get more first hand pricing on all the hybrid repairs.
  • larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    I'm not attempting to nor do I want to nor will I ever attack anyone personally, but I do think attitudes like "BEWARE of hybrid" promote an "anti-hybrid" culture, which is bad for everyone.

     

    It is nothing more than sheer speculation to think a Hybrid battery will not last 150K-200K miles, or even longer. There are model year 1997 Prius 1 cars in Japan with 164K, 150K miles (hundreds of them) and we have not heard of vast numbers of battery failures. In fact, just a few months ago, Toyota had been boasting that they had NEVER replaced a Prius battery due to "old age" disease.

     

    At a 200K point in a car's life, simple things start to break besides major components. Like window motors dying, seat fabric ripping, rubber insulation around the hood/trunk/windows corroding, etc.

     

    The Honda systems are different in that ( at least in an HCH ) even if the battery DOES DIE, the car can function as a normal gasser, but will just lose MPG. So theoretically, if you are prepared to deal with the costs and headache of a a 200,000 mile car, you can deal with a car which gets only 35 MPG versus 45.

     

    If you are one of the 1% of car buyers who want and attempt to try and keep a car for 200K+ miles, you go ahead and rule out Hybrids.

     

    If you do so, that will be about 200K miles you COULD have saved a lot of gas and a lot of emissions, but instead you "worry warted" yourself to death about something we don't even know to be true.
  • robertsmxrobertsmx Member Posts: 5,525
    At 150-200K, any car is likely to have more problems than solutions. At that point, a $30K car would probably get you back no more than $2K. Whether it is the battery, or transmission, or catalytic converter, it wouldn’t be worth maintaining at some point. Replacement would make more sense.

     

    And if it is just replacing batteries makes hybrid ownership an issue, don’t! Let them be there, after all at that age there are more things to worry about than gain a few mpg.
  • kernickkernick Member Posts: 4,072
    Well I know Toyota advertises that 90% of Camries produced since 1988 or such. So I bet there are a lot of 150K+ mile ones on the road. And we can only assume the new ones made today are more durable.

     

    And since it's going hybrid, we can assume either someone is going to change those batteries or prematurely scrap the cars.

     

    And believe it or not, people who are struggling do own and drive these cars which you dismiss as junk. There are millions and millions of cars on the road are probably not even worth $500. Iused to live in an urban neighborhood and it was no big deal for many people to have 1 registered plate and slap it on whatever "beater" vehicle they decided to drive that day. Maybe hybrids would be beneficial if they kept old-cars off the road?
  • stevewastevewa Member Posts: 203
    Quote: That was directly off of the Toyota price sheets. It is not just a $4k battery & a $5k motor assembly. Much more than an ICE only vehicle.

     

    You've missed my point. I was saying that you have to offset the price of the hybrid components by subtracting the prices of the parts that do not exist in the hybrid. In the case of Prius that would include at least the automatic transaxle, alternator, and starter.

     

    Also given that eletric motors are much more reliable than mechanical contrivances like automatic transmissions, you have to factor in the likelyhood of replacement when you calculate the cost/benefit ratio.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    Also given that eletric motors are much more reliable than mechanical contrivances like automatic transmissions,

     

    Why is it that the generator, alternator, heater fan motor and starter are the first things to need replacing, after the battery on a conventional vehicle?
  • larsblarsb Member Posts: 8,204
    Future Hybrid: Gasoline/Steam ?????

     

    http://www.ferret.com.au/articles/3b/0c02ca3b.asp
  • electrictroyelectrictroy Member Posts: 564
    "Why is it that the generator, alternator, heater fan motor and starter are the first things to need replacing, after the battery on a conventional vehicle? "

     

    .

    Not true. My 320,000 mile Dodge Shadow still had its original electronics. It all worked flawlessly. What failed? The engine's valve broke off, and self-destructed the engine.

     

    .

     

    General Electric did a test with 6 Rav4 EVs using NiMH batteries. 5 are still functional at 120,000 miles. #6 was totaled in an accident.

     

    Please note that these are 100% electric cars, and they put a lot of strain on the batteries, both undercharging & overcharging, but the batteries are still going strong after 120,000 miles!

     

    .

     

    In contrast, hybrids rarely use their battery... less than 1% of the power comes from the battery. Hybrids also don't undercharge or overcharge the battery, to avoid stress.

     

    So, if a NiMH can survive 120,000 miles of extreme stress in a pure EV, it ought to last far, far longer in a hybrid. Longer than the engine!

     

    I'd estimate 500,000 miles...and that's a conservative estimate.

     

    troy
This discussion has been closed.