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The Great Hybrid Battery Debate
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Comments
Go right on this site and look up any high volume passenger vehicle with 180,000 mi and/or 15 yrs on it. It's worth less than $500! Who cares if the battery goes out at 180K or 200K or 220K miles? The vehicle is worth nothing anyway. This objection that's constantly being raised over and over again is truely a tempest in a teapot.
93 Camry 150,000 mi = $455
94 Accord 180,000 mi = $250
95 Taurus 130,000 mi = $190
Well, it's not MAGIC Gary. There will without a doubt be "some battery deterioration" and that FACT is unavoidable.
But how much it affects the mileage will be the key point. Most of the older, highest mileage Priuses which have been reported on show little or no loss in MPG as they age.
After a battery has 8-10 years on it, the performance of the battery cannot help but be affected.
I'm the one saying "Prius batteries will not FAIL EN MASSE" over time. There will be a few failures out of warranty, for sure. I think that number will still hover around minuscule to barely a blip.
You also like to show that any vehicle that is 10 years old is worthless to the owner. It is worthless to a dealer. It is possibly all the owner can afford. If after 10 years he has to replace an expensive battery that will make the Prius WORTHLESS. So I guess by your definition the Prius is a 10 year throwaway vehicle. I would probably agree with that.
Our 19 year old LS400 runs and looks better than many 3-5 year old cars. If we had to replace a $4k to $6k component I would give it to Father Carlucci as a donation. The point being I don't want a car that has that kind of built in expensive component that is deteriorating whether it is being used or not. That is the nature of batteries. It will be the Achilles heel of all EVs in the future. Fine for high mileage drivers not so good for low mileage long term owners.
Ditto from me for anyone who says it won't. We already have Priuses with that many miles.
The Prius might be a 10-yr throwaway vehicle for some owners. Just as many gasoline cars also are treated. But about 90% of the Prius can or will be recycled - so who loses?
A solution which will please you Gary: "Long term low mileage drivers" can just keep buying gasoline cars as long as they are available.
Battery technology WILL SOMEDAY reach the point of lifetime batteries and/or an affordable replacement for the 10-yr owner. Book it. It's gonna happen.
If not, then non-fossil-fueled cars will adopt some other sort of alternative power technology.
There are too many smart people in the world for this to not be figured out.
That has been one of the sticking points in my mind since the hybrid hit the streets. For those of us conservative drivers will the hybrid be a good "green" long term purchase? If it needs a new battery after 10 years the answer is a resounding NO! Which brings up the real issue. At what point will the automaker be forced to change the battery? At 50% 60% 70% 80% of original capacity. I would say when it drops below 80% it should start losing mileage. That is just an educated guess.
I noticed about a year ago that the Lexus starter seemed sluggish. Truth is it was the deterioration of the battery. It finally failed in front of the Costco gas pump. Called AAA and they came and installed a new battery. That sluggish starter sound is gone. It is like we have a new car for $124 including tax and installation. I don't think the person with a 19 year old Prius will be so lucky. All that smugness at the gas pump when they are filling for less than I am will go away. If there ever is such a thing as a 19 year old hybrid.... I just doubt it. Sad isn't it?
That is the 10 year average driver. We shall see if you are right after 5 more years. The fact that my car would be worthless and 90% recycled is very comforting indeed. :sick:
I know that our LS400 is probably worthless to a dealer. It still runs great and is how I think all vehicles should be built. Sadly they are not and we are tossing them after just a few years. I dare say the new Lexus will not hold up as well as the first of the breed. What does that say about Toyota and Lexus as automakers. Green does not come to mind. A green car to me is one that is still good after 20 years. There are many environmentalist that share my view. Auto salesmen are definitely not in that group. Mercedes has probably built the most green cars over the last 30 years. Last I read they were awarded greenest car on the planet award. Though it probably would not pass my test for longevity. All people think about is emissions from the exhaust. That is not all we should be measuring.
All cars reach "worthless" at some point, unless totaled or retired early.
Cars which are driven as commuter cars are not an investment (other than collector cars, we know) - they are a consumable which eventually gets consumed down to nothing.
Gary says, "A green car to me is one that is still good after 20 years."
Lucky for the rest of the world that is only one man's opinion.
Gary says, "Last I read they were awarded greenest car on the planet award."
Where did you see that? I'd like to see someone who put them ahead of Honda.
Sorry this is not accurate. As I noted both the Federal Govt, Idaho National Labs, and Toyota have separately tested the Toyota hybrids to 160,000 and 180,000 miles respectively with no significant deterioration in performance. As a matter of fact in the Feds test I believe that the Gen2 got slightly better FE after 160,000 miles ( break in ) than it did in the beginning. There is data and it's published and done scientifically.
Now that the mileage question is put to rest, you are only surmising that age has to overwhelm the batteries because that's the only arrow left in your risk quiver. But that's only your personal viewpoint. Nothing else. There is no proof at all that age up to 10 or 15 yrs has any significant effect on the performance of the hybrid batteries. There are no vehicles that old yet. Nonetheless the CARB warranty is 10 years. Up to that time there is no risk.
You also like to show that any vehicle that is 10 years old is worthless to the owner. It is worthless to a dealer. It is possibly all the owner can afford. If after 10 years he has to replace an expensive battery that will make the Prius WORTHLESS. So I guess by your definition the Prius is a 10 year throwaway vehicle. I would probably agree with that.
And at 10+ years old ALL mass market vehicles, not hand made LS400's, are next to worthless. At 15 yrs of age they are in fact worthless. An owner may have an unreasoning love of his or her teenager but that doesn't eliminate the fact that it is worthless. It may have some utility but it has no cash value if an attempt were to be made to turn it into cash other than for parts.
Our 19 year old LS400 runs and looks better than many 3-5 year old cars. If we had to replace a $4k to $6k component I would give it to Father Carlucci as a donation. The point being I don't want a car that has that kind of built in expensive component that is deteriorating whether it is being used or not. That is the nature of batteries. It will be the Achilles heel of all EVs in the future. Fine for high mileage drivers not so good for low mileage long term owners.
This may be true but there's no proof one way or another. It's all wait and see at this point. But the key point I believe here is that while I will grant that there's no guarantee of a 20 yr problem-free life, neither can the doubting Thomas's impute an automatic cost of replacement at the end of the warranty period. There simply is no absolute proof of age longevity.
There is however beginning to be a volume of proof that mileage has no bearing on the performance of the batteries. 250,000 miles or 300,000 miles seems very very likely. We shall soon see with my friend Mr Carbot who just turned over 203,000 miles. That's the 2nd Prius he purchased from me. I'm chasing him but I'm far behind at 30 months ( 81,000 mi ) while he's at 54 months ( 203,000 mi ). He will likely reach 250,000 - 260,000 by the time his Gen 3 arrives next summer.
All nice mileage figures. There is a 900k mile Mercedes Sprinter still going in Germany. That again has nothing to do with aging gracefully. I don't think the hybrids will have that luxury.
Now that the mileage question is put to rest
Mileage has never been a consideration in my buying a vehicle EVER. It has always been longevity. It was longevity on this forum when the Prius first came to San Diego. When we see Prius of any ilk still going strong with good MPG when they are 10 years old I will be convinced. Nothing you or Larsb have said gives me a warm feeling about the longevity of a hybrid. The only thing I see with a vehicle that is 3 years old and 100k miles is some poor slob that spends too much of his life behind the wheel of a car. Risking my life 10k miles per year is plenty.
We can come back to this in 5 years if you like...
You are not a conservative driver/purchaser. You need to check the definition of the word conservative.
You bought a Sequoia which uses
$4102 dollars of fuels per year,
Needs 22.8 Barrels of oil per year,
Emits 12.2 tons of CO2 per year, and
Has an air pollution score of 3
And you are worried about the batteries on a Prius lasting 10 years!
How much value is left in that Sequoia now that fuel prices are high?
Trade in 2007 Sequoia, 15,000 miles = $18,200
Trade in 2007 Prius, 15,000 miles = $25,225
If I was a Prius owner I'd be shaking in my boots about spending a few thousand dollars on batteries in ten years. [Bob Newhart
Let's get down to the root issue about the Prius. There is a whole segment of people that just can't handle saving fuel because, well let me quote the following;
"Now, more than ever, we need Hummer, in all its defiant, obnoxious, thoroughly American glory. "
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/11/AR2008071102535.- html
The battery issue is just a smoke screen brought up by people that just cannot stomach a fuel efficient or environmentally friendly vehicle. We can't have the "Terminator" driving around in a battery powered car, can we? Its just not American, or at least their definition of American.
$4102 dollars of fuels per year,
Needs 22.8 Barrels of oil per year,
Emits 12.2 tons of CO2 per year, and
Has an air pollution score of 3
And you are worried about the batteries on a Prius lasting 10 years!
You do make a lot of assumptions in your posts. First our Sequoia only has 5700 miles after 10 months of use including one trip to AZ and several trips to the desert. The car we use the most is our 1990 LS400 that is nearing the 95k mile mark on the Odo. What are the odds that we could have kept a Prius for 19 years with nothing major failing?
Let's get down to the root issue about the Prius. There is a whole segment of people that just can't handle saving fuel
Again you are assuming that is me. If you could go back on this site to 1998 you would have found my first posts were in search of a more fuel efficient PU truck. Ten years later there are still NO decent fuel efficient PU trucks sold in the USA. Every other country in the world have diesel PU trucks getting 30-45 MPG except US. So maybe it is contrarian position when we buy big SUVs in this country. It just may be we are trying to tell our flaky government that we are unhappy with their ignorant regulations and tariffs (aka as chicken tax).
Yes the Sequoia dropped $10k before it ever left the dealers lot. And they are the ones that took that loss. I am patient and will find someone that just has to have a 2007 Sequoia Limited 4X4 that is loaded after I get a diesel SUV that I like. I beat the odds with the GMC Hybrid PU by waiting. It was worth $7000 more than the GMC dealer would offer me.
So I am not worried nearly as much as I would with the clock ticking on that Prius Battery life.
We will know more in 5+ years about hybrid battery longevity.
Gas to date on 07 Sequoia $1248.73. Just filled so good for a safe motoring 300 miles :shades:
Not $4000
Also at the seminar, Toyota announced a price cut for replacement battery packs for its Prius hybrids. Built in a joint venture with Panasonic, the replacement battery for the first-generation Prius costs $2,299; for the second-generation model, the cost is $2,588. The replacement nickel-metal-hydride batteries previously cost $2,985 for either variety. There are more than 600,000 of the hybrids on the road. Prices are for replacements after the warranty expires. The original-equipment batteries carry a 10-year/150,000-mile warranty in California-compliant states and an eight-year/80,000-mile warranty elsewhere.
So now the "out of warranty" owners can start budgeting.
If the cost of labor for the swap is based on the cost of oil changes here then the price would be FREE...
So in CA I would expect a battery change for a Prius to top $5,000 easy. Maybe more.
Talking about initial difference of purchase price. A while back I compared the MSRP of a Civic Hybrid vs a comparably equipped conventional engined Civic. Seems the difference was in the $5k range. Another factor to consider is that dealers are most likely more willing to "deal" in a conventional engined car. But for the purposes of this post, consider a $4k difference.
Example: At 7%, Financing a $24K car loan for 72 months would cost $447.59 monthly, $32,226 total cost. While financing $20K would be $373 monthly, $26855 total cost. $5371 extra total for the Hybrid.
At 15K miles a year, Simple math says over the 72 months the 45 average mpg hybrid will use 2, 000 gallon of fuel. While a 32 mph conventional car would burn 2,812 gallons. Hybrid saves 812 gallons of fuel.
At $4 per gallon the hybrid would save $3248 in fuel cost. At $5 the hybrid would save $4060 in fuel. So it seems the break even point would be much longer than 6 years and 90K miles for the typical driver.
This is assuming nothing goes wrong with the batteries or any of the other components that operate the "Hybrid" system. So far we have only been told that the batteries last a long time. What about the other "Hybrid" components?
Obviously more complicated math than I've used here would fall into play. Figuring in if the fuel saved each month was used to buy CDs and so forth.
Kip
"If I keep a vehicle for 'X' number of years ( pick a number ) then which of the following two vehicles will cost me less over that timeframe and miles driven factoring in fuel costs, maintenance, insurance and resale value"
Has anyone actually figured the "Break Even" cost of Hybrid vs Conventional with equal amenities.
Yes this has been done so often it's very old news and the problem is ALWAYS posed incorrectly ( see above ). CR does it about once or twice a year. They just published an article with that info in it.
Talking about initial difference of purchase price. A while back I compared the MSRP of a Civic Hybrid vs a comparably equipped conventional engined Civic. Seems the difference was in the $5k range. Another factor to consider is that dealers are most likely more willing to "deal" in a conventional engined car. But for the purposes of this post, consider a $4k difference.
Your math is WAY OFF here in regards to the Civic gasser vs HCH. At most it's about $3000. The Prius is $4000 more than the Matrix. The TCH ranges from $1500 to $3000 more than the gasser Camry depending on trim level.
Example: At 7%, Financing a $24K car loan for 72 months would cost $447.59 monthly, $32,226 total cost. While financing $20K would be $373 monthly, $26855 total cost. $5371 extra total for the Hybrid.
OK you were talking about adding in the financing costs. Your numbers sound about correct.
At 15K miles a year, Simple math says over the 72 months the 45 average mpg hybrid will use 2, 000 gallon of fuel. While a 32 mph conventional car would burn 2,812 gallons. Hybrid saves 812 gallons of fuel.
At $4 per gallon the hybrid would save $3248 in fuel cost. At $5 the hybrid would save $4060 in fuel. So it seems the break even point would be much longer than 6 years and 90K miles for the typical driver.
This is assuming nothing goes wrong with the batteries or any of the other components that operate the "Hybrid" system. So far we have only been told that the batteries last a long time. What about the other "Hybrid" components?
Obviously more complicated math than I've used here would fall into play. Figuring in if the fuel saved each month was used to buy CDs and so forth.
Your math on the fuel savings is accurate also even to the point of factoring in an inflation estimate. Most don't do this ( including Edmunds ).
But what all the analyses miss is RESALE value, especially if fuel does go north of $4 or $5 a gallon.
That $4000 premium initially paid is partially recovered when the vehicle is sold. The shorter period that the vehicle is held the more of the 'hybrid premium' is recovered at resale. A 6 y.o. hybrid is worth more than a 6 y.o. gasser of the same model. How much more depends on the vehicle, the market at the time and a lot of other factors. As an example last July USED 1 y.o. Prius' which originally has an MSRP of $22000, with 10-12000 miles on them, were going for $26000 - $28000 at auctions. Not only was there no depreciation but the buyers actually had 25% appreciation. Now if you say that you're a 'keeper' normally staying with a vehicle for 10-12 years, then the fuel savings will accumulate for another 6 years or another $3000-$4000 in savings. Yes it's a close decision as to whether the costs equal each other
Regarding the maintenance on the hybrid systems....there is NONE. As in ZERO! It's all electric so there's nothing to be done to them. Since they've been on the market now for 11 yrs it's becoming apparent that the hybrid electric components might be the MOST reliable parts of the vehicle. It's one reason why there's so much interest now in PHEVs, E-REVs, EVs, etc.
Assumptions: Yours are accurate IMO except that RESALE VALUES are not factored in.
Hondas and Toyotas lose about 10% per year in Resale Value as they age. Lets say that both the gasser Civic and the HCH both lose 60% of their value over 6 yrs.
$24000 * 60% = $14400 Depreciation
$20000 * 60% = $12000 Depreciation
Net Extra cost: $2400
6 * 15000 mi = 90000 mi driven @ 45 mpg = 2000 gal used
6 * 15000 mi = 90000 mi driven @ 32 mpg = 2812 gal used
Cost of fuel is
812 * $4 = $3248
812 * $5 = $4060
CD interest 'foregone'
$4000 * 4% for 6 yrs = $1060
Summary
Initially you spend $4000 more for the HCH but on resale you recover $1600 of that. However in buying the HCH you 'forego' $1060 in CD interest over that period of time. Your net extra cost is ~$3500.
In fuel expenses..
@ $4 a gallon on average you will save ~$3250 over 6 yrs and 90,000 mi.
@ $5 a gallon on average you will save ~$4050 over 6 yrs and 90,000 mi
It looks like a wash to me. Both vehicles will cost about the same to purchase and drive over that specific time and mileage. Take your pick.
Currently there is a small Fed Tax Cred on the HCH and some states waive sales tax if you buy a hybrid. Hey it looks like the people in the Marketing Department at Honda did a good job of pricing each vehicle.
Thank you for your reply.
>"Your math is WAY OFF here in regards to the Civic gasser vs HCH. At most it's about $3000."
I'm thinkin that If anything, my $4000 for comparison may have been a bit low.
I just went back to Edmunds and checked the MSRP on a few vehicles, for the sake of comparison, Using the automatic tranny. We know, that how a car is actually equipped will reflect the actual MSRP as well as the actual selling price.
I don't know how the base or the high end models are equipped.
The Civic Hybrids ranged from $23,550 to $26,750
The Civic gassers ranged from $16,205 to $22,205
Extra cost for Hybrid................$7,345 to $ 4,555
Toyota Camry only showed 1 hybrid. The price is $26,150
The gas Camry ranged in price from $20,195 to $22,815
Extra cost for the Hybrid ranges from $3945 to $5,955
The Prius Ranges from $22,000 to $24,270.
The gas Corolla Ranges from $16,150 to $20,050.
Extra cost for the Prius ranges from $5850 to $4220.
Using the Edmunds "Comparator", The Corolla is closer in size to the Prius than the Camry is. Actually the Corolla is a bit larger than the Prius. The Camry is larger than either. So I compared the Corolla to the Prius. I gave the low to high ranges because the different equipment can require that maybe a a base gasser is not equipped as well as a base hybrid and so forth.
We also need to consider that the dealers are going to hold the Hybrid prices as high as possible, and possibly even add on a "Supply and Demand" fee to the bottom line. Where as they are "dealing" on the gassers as the market is becoming flooded with them.
The "Hype" is on as you pointed out with:
>"As an example last July USED 1 y.o. Prius' which originally has an MSRP of $22000, with 10-12000 miles on them, were going for $26000 - $28000 at auctions. Not only was there no depreciation but the buyers actually had 25% appreciation."
Why anyone would want to pay the dealer that $26K-$28K PLUS dealer profit for a used Prius is beyond logic to me.
>"If I keep a vehicle for 'X' number of years ( pick a number ) then which of the following two vehicles will cost me less over that timeframe and miles driven factoring in fuel costs, maintenance, insurance and resale value"
That sounds one fair way of saying it! In my above post I was simply trying to point out the possible length of time the average driver would/could expect to drive before he was getting out of the "Extra cost" Hole. Getting to the Break Even point of owning a Hybrid rather than a gasser.
Seems that everyone is jumping on the Hybrid band wagon right now. So we don't know the value of todays hybrids in the future. Batteries as we know them may be a thing of the past, which would hurt the resale of present day technologies. Of course, gassers may also be a thing of the past.
Regards,
Kip
The Civic hybrid is roughly equal to the Civic EX, No leather and No Navi.
http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/2008/index.html#search=open.eq..amp.p.eq.cveh- icledata%23%23-1%23%23-1%7E%7Ef64%7C%7C536564616e%7E%7Enf51%7C%7C436f6d70616374
The respective Base prices are $19510 and $22600,i.e. about a $3000 difference.
The Prius is not comparable to a Corolla. The Prius is a 5 door hatchback the Corolla is a 4 door sedan. The Prius is more accurately comparable to the Matrix which is also a 4cyl 5 door hatchback
The respective prices, with similar equipment, are $20400 and $24400,i.e. about a $4000 difference
The standard TCH is very close in equipment to the 4c XLE Camry gasser.
The respective prices are $27400 and $29200 ( both have cloth, SR but no Navi ), i.e. about an $1800 difference.
The auction prices that I mentioned in my post were NOT the resale prices being asked to the public. They were the purchase prices being paid by professional buyers on behalf of the dealers in order to secure those vehicles. Then the vehicles had to be transported back to the buying store, prepped, financed and resold. Some stores had as many as 20-40 of these in stock and the public willingly understood that they were paying $5000 - $10000 above the original sticker. The market speaks.
Again there is no 'Break Even' point unless you are generating income with your vehicle. What you actually have is two columns of expenses, one for vehicle A and one for vehicle B.
In the case of the Civic / HCH comparo the bottom lines are about equal at 6 yrs but the HCH costs less if the vehicle is kept 10-12 yrs.
In the case of the Prius / Matrix the costs are about equal at about 5 yrs but the Prius costs less if the vehicle is kept 10-12 yrs.
In the case of the TCH / Camry the costs are about equal at 2-3 yrs but thereafter the TCH costs much less than the gasser sibling.
The respective prices are $27400 and $29200 ( both have cloth, SR but no Navi ), i.e. about an $1800 difference."
WHEN, a Hybrid of comparable size and weight and equipment can be bought at $1800 more than a gasser, it will be a value.
You and I both know that just ain't happening. The battery pack alone cost more than that.
Also the dealers are not "dealing" on the Hybrids. They are "dealing" on the gassers. If anything, they may tend to add more $1500-$2500 "Protection" to the hybrids. Such as, pin stripe, fabric protection (scotch guard), and the infamous acid rain paint protector. These items are added by the "Get Ready" department at the dealer. Biggest cost to the dealer is the wage paid to the guy spraying, washing, and stretching the tape.
Add to that the "Supply and demand", sticker and the "We just aren't going to deal on this one" mentality, and there is a huge difference in the price of a Hybrid and Comparably Equipped, same size vehicle. Your dealership may be different.
>The auction prices that I mentioned in my post were NOT the resale prices being asked to the public. They were the purchase prices being paid by professional buyers on behalf of the dealers in order to secure those vehicles. Then the vehicles had to be transported back to the buying store, prepped, financed and resold. Some stores had as many as 20-40 of these in stock and the public willingly understood that they were paying $5000 - $10000 above the original sticker."
There ya go !. When used ones are selling for $5000 - $10000 more than the new MSRP, How much is the price of a new one jacked up?
Just so we are on the same page or at least in the same book, I personally feel that the Toyota and the Honda are be best values in the automotive world. Everything considered.
However, right now, I don't think the Hybrids are worth the real world "Extra" cost.
>"Again there is no ' Break Even' point unless you are generating income with your vehicle."
At $5,000-$10,000 extra cost for the Hybrid, you are right. There is no ' break even' point.
In this case, For me, "Break Even" is : When the higher initial cost of the Hybrid is compensated for by fuel savings, the "Break Even" point is reached. It has cost as much to own one as the other. From that point, I'm saving money, until time to replace batteries or something else went wrong that is Hybrid exclusive.
I don't understand how/why you feel there is only "Break Even" for those using the car to generate income. Please explain ! :confuse:
Thanks,
Kip
All the other stuff that you note about protection and worthless addons is only a local/regional issue. It also depends on one's ability to say 'NO'.
I don't understand how/why you feel there is only "Break Even" for those using the car to generate income. Please explain
'Break Even' is a specific accounting concept that occurs when income equals expense ( usually fixed expense ). If you are the normal retail buyer then you don't generate any income by the use of your vehicle.
If you were a small business ( which in fact you are with your family budget ) the correct way to do an analysis is that you or your accountant would do an analysis of two vehicles; add up all the expected expenses over the expected life of the two vehicles then you'd choose which vehicle cost you less in total expenses. That's the only valid comparo to make.
In almost all cases the hybrids cost less then the non-hybrid versions.
All 2009 except noted:
Camry Hybrid 5 each $32,129
Camry XLE 2.4L 3 each $26,269
Camry XLE V6 one each $29,429 (2008)
Prius 11 each Start at $24,869 to $28,844
Matrix 12 each from $19,519 to $23,879 with AWD
That is $5860 more for the Camry hybrid over the Camry XLE 4 cyl. I cannot see ever getting the value form a hybrid in CA. Your prices may vary. We have 11 dealers and they all have similar or higher pricing.
In the first two vehicles you compared a loaded TCH with leather, Navi and Sunroof to a standard XLE 4c without leather or Navi. Your comparo is the most specific of all specific cases....actual inventory on hand. There's no valid conclusion that can be drawn from looking at actual inventory on hand unless you wanted to drive away this afternoon in one.
That XLE V6 has to be a Used one or off-Rental vehicle. The new 2008s were gone on President's Day W/E in Feb. The current MSRP for a 2009 XLE V6 is ~$32600.
Go to the website. Approximate numbers
XLE V6 $32600
TCH ... $32100
XLE I4 $30800
The Matrix FWD with PO, KE, AA, VS and Z1 is about $20600 MSRP
The Prius Pck#2 with similar equipment is $ $24400.
You can get Navi in the Matrix XRS with a SR but not with Bluetooth nor with leather. However this will put you into the $25500 range as opposed to a Package #5 Prius @ $27900 ( Navi / No leather ).
Check out the prices. I just picked the top of the list Toyota dealer. They have 3 XLE 4C at $26k.
http://www.mossytoyota.com/new-inventory/vehicle-details.htm?vehicleId=fd7df9e74- 046381e013c6654b5a8df8f&useHistory=true
My guess is that this is a 'down demo' that a manager or owner or member of the owner's family has been driving from Jan til now. It still is regarded as a 'new vehicle' since it's never been sold at retail and never titled. If it's like in VA the 'down demos' have to be parked at about 5000 miles so that they can still be sold as 'new'.
plus ni-mh modules cost massively more money?
Can you explain this situation , are we missing something? Sure
ni-mh lasts longer but we were under the impression that they were also much
higher power (like 30-50% higher amphours for approximately 14volts systems).
The "normal" standard of industry is the 20 hour rate of draining.
Maybe they use a different rate schedule for the ni-mh (normally
battery amphour ratings are at the 20 hour rate). In other words if a battery is
rated at 6.5 amphours and that is the true 20 hour rate. That is the
energy you can get from it over 20 hours. IE a 100 amphour battery means that over 20 hours you can get 5 amps steady draw for 20 hours = 100 amphours.
Faster draining is less IE . same 100 amphour rated battery drained at 10 amps
would only last "perhaps" 7-8 hours (its not linearly proportional).
Thanks for any information you can give on this.
We really thought the ni-mh was at least 30% better energy density.
Thanks, Inventor
First of all, the Prius is now 11 years old, as the first ones were sold in Japan in December 1997, making them now 11+ years old.
Second of all, I told you in the last post that the Gen I Prius "recall" was merely to reseal the battery terminals. They had nothing to do with the performance or failure of the battery.
You are right about a lot of things Gary, and I like discussing things with you. But you are wrong about these batteries.
Kind of hard to prove that when Japan's average car is only 6.6 years old. I don't know the actual number of first gen Prius sold here. It had to be very small numbers. The real test will be when the big selling 2nd gen Prius starts to age. 5 years down and counting.
This all started with my question of longevity on Li-Ion which has a HORRIBLE life span history in laptop computers. Cell phones, who keeps one more than 3 years? My last two laptops out of 6 I have owned were Li-Ion. My current one just passed 3 years and out of warranty. The battery does not last more than an hour now. It would go 4 hours when new. My first Dell laptop using Li-Ion went through 2 batteries in less than 3 years. These are Identical to the 6000+ AA cells in the Tesla. I look for the early innovators to start screaming in about a year from now.
Toyota Prius II Battery Pack
Battery Pack Thermal Management
"The purpose of a battery thermal management system is to keep the batteries operating within a desirable temperature range; prevent the batteries from exceeding a high temperature limit that can damage the batteries and/or reduce life; and maintain battery temperature variations to low levels to prevent highly imbalanced batteries. Pack imbalances can reduce performance and can also damage the battery and/or reduce life. Thermal management of the battery pack is typically accomplished with the combination of two approaches. First, a cooling/heating system is designed to extract/supply heat to the battery pack. Second, the battery controller adjusts the vehicle’s use of the battery pack based on the conditions in the batteries."
These systems are nothing like the battery systems in cell phones, laptop computers or even Segways.
'Yota would not warranty them for 10 years/100K miles if they were not confident that the batteries would last that long.
Here is a PDF that talks about the Li-ion batteries in the test Prius:
Read This All Ye Who Doubt Li-ion
Here is info on how the Tesla system will avoid "early" battery failures
They would not warranty them for 10 years and 100k miles were they not forced to do it by the EPA and CARB. And in the CARB states it is 10 years 150k miles.
Reading about a battery and it performing valiantly for 10 years is not the same thing. We shall see how the auto companies deal with the 10 year warranty on the Li-Ion batteries. I would consider that a safe bet as I do with all the hybrids. Most people are not keeping cars 10 years. I just do not see any hybrid that would work for me on the market. So it is a non starter issue.
Our small one time admittedly test with a small Li-Ion told us to stay away from them as they can't take the beating for very long . Also MIT was hyping there trailblazing drive across country using Li-Ion (hundreds of small ones soldered together).. I think they got as far as illinois before quitting. Basically you might remember that Ni-Mh was used in the EV1 and witnesses (users who leased it) say it went 100 to 130 miles at about 70mph. Toyota Rav4 EV's that survived the toyota recall *(some courts ordered toyota to sell the leased Ev's to the leasers ) are still on the road with the same nimh batteries. Also virtually every Hybrid is using NiMH , and why? Obviously the H car was hyped to distract us from the already great Ev's that were crushed by GM. Same for BioGas, etc. Notice how every year they keep saying " Next Year, the volt ev, phev's, blah blah blah, " Like a broken record and they have been doing that for 10 years!
Its all a scam,, the biggest joke is that now GM and the others are getting Billions more when in fact they caused this whole economic mess, yes economies soar when energy (oil) is cheap).
Based on experience within our walls and in discussion with technicians across the country, we can fairly call Gen 1 Prius battery failures “common” and even “predictable.” The youngest we’ve seen served 130,000 miles, some make it past 200,000 miles. Overall we’ve found 150,000 miles a reasonable expectation of how long the packs will last.
What the car needs is a new high voltage battery. There are three potential approaches:
1.) Replace the battery with a new one from Toyota
Despite prevailing rumor, new battery packs from Toyota are not unreasonably expensive. While they are a significant financial investment, they can be expected to last as long as originals, as they are brand new and OE grade.
Given increasing number of Gen 1 battery failures, OE replacement packs are often backordered. Expect to wait 10-14 business days for delivery from Japan.
Installation: $600
New Battery Pack: $2,499
Tax: $212.42
Total: $3,311.42
http://lusciousgarage.com/index.php/blog/gen_1_prius_battery_failure/
This shop works on hybrids that are out of warranty. So they will have no solid figures on warranty battery replacements. I would say Toyota did their engineering well to have the batteries last the limits of the warranty.
Second generation Prius batteries are similar to the Gen 1’s design but chemically much improved; we have never seen a Gen 2 pack failure in our shop (though we have many cars with mileage exceeding 300k) and have only heard of a few isolated cases from dealer techs across the country. (These failures have been blamed on contamination during manufacturing and show up early in the car’s life.) To be fair, the Gen 2’s battery control software is also improved, which also accounts for extended pack life.
Gen 2 Prius are far more common and used parts are much easier to obtain. The Gen 2’s modules are the same individual voltage (7.2) but fewer in overall number (28, for a nominal voltage to 201.6), so it takes two Gen 2 packs to build one replacement for the Gen 1. This also takes more labor. But the good news is that these packs can be purchased used for much less than the Gen 1’s and can also be expected to last as long as new ones, if not longer. (Pic of Carolyn working on a Gen 2 pack)
You can even replace Gen 1 battery modules with Gen 2 battery modules.
That's very cool.
We found that that some ev cars like Zap Xebra Pk for instance , can go 25 miles (albeit at 45- mph) on just 6 high capacity 114amphour lead acid batteries. The prius 04+ packs have really just 28 modules weighing 1.04 kg each =~64lbs so 6 of them would 384 lbs. We were thinking that 6 packs could be used to replace the zap batteries and could double the mileage? What say you?
FYI: High Capacity lead acids weigh about the same , and are a little less volume than prius batteries. The power in the 28 modules is slightly less at 104 amphours (7.2v x 6.5 ah x 28 = 1.32 kwhrs vs 12v x 114ah = 1.368kwhrs). Obviously the prius batteries lifetime is much greater being NiMh which is the only advantage / value in them. (The ev1 and rav4 ev nimh large format batteries are a differnent animal with much higher power density than prius prismatic types).
PS
He loves the car and was looking forward to having it on Maui to save on gas.
Tell him to convince Toyota to let him take it to Hawaii.
It does not hurt them one iota. They still get their money, and I bet they lease cars in Hawaii. He could cancel his "California lease" and get a new "Hawaii lease" when he gets there.
Kinda silly to blame the hybrid technology. If it was an Avalon, Toyota would not act any different.
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Number two on the list would be give the keys to a friend, pay them minimal fee to go start it once every two weeks or something.
There is nothing prohibitive about a hybrid battery that means it will "die" any faster if it's not used. Toyota states in the manual that if a Prius cannot be started after a long period of non-use, just call the dealer and they will get it going.
Extended Storage
Disconnect the small 12-volt battery.
It is helpful to disconnect the small, auxiliary 12-volt battery on the driver side in the trunk. With it disconnected, there will no longer be a drain from the alarm system. (Make note of the radio buttons you have programmed. You'll need to manually restore them after reconnecting the battery.)
Draining the 273.6-volt battery-pack while in long-term storage is never a concern. When you shut off the Prius, an electric relay is deactivated. So it isn’t even connected to the rest of the system until you turn the key again.
and another:
Long term Storage:
A number of people have raised the question of long term storage and its effects on the 12V and HV (High Voltage) batteries in the car. I have had some direct experience in this area. "Sparky" has been left in an airport parking lot for 14 days with no problems. Nothing was done except to park and lock her. Because of our bicoastal life, we leave the car for extended periods. Under this circumstance I disconnect the 12V battery and leave the car in the garage. She has been left for as long as 100 days with no loss of HV energy as indicated by the battery icon. In all cases of a lengthy storage, there were no problems starting the car after the 12V battery was reconnected.
Any car put into "long term storage" is better off getting started at the very least every few months. This is not new with hybrid cars.
PS
He loves the car and was looking forward to having it on Maui to save on gas. "
Have your friend check out buying out the lease. He may be able to arrange a decent price. Then he will own the car and can take it anywhere.
I would not advise storing any car for 2 years, during which time you are making lease payments!
He spent the day with Toyota finance and they would not budge an inch. No it would not make any difference if it was a Tundra or Prius. EXCEPT. You can leave a Tundra parked for 2 years without fear of the hybrid battery draining and being destroyed. While it would still be covered there would probably be a hassle and waiting for a replacement etc. They will not let you take the car out of CA for more than a month under their lease plan. He talked to the guy on Maui and got the same story. The problem is getting it licensed in Hawaii. We thought about buying it. I just don't want a red POC Prius for a $24k payoff on the lease. That is what I can buy a new one for. He got into the lease because he is a very poor preacher. Not one of the mega church guys that drive a Mercedes. He wanted the economy for all the running to visit the sick in the hospital.
My advice is be wary of Toyota finance. They seem to be crooks IMO.
I agree. Then I would never lease a vehicle. It is a giant rip-off unless you can write the whole thing off. This preacher hardly makes enough in a year to pay any taxes. He leased as it was $200 per month less and he was planning to finance the payoff after 5 years. Why he likes the rough riding noisy little beast is beyond me. But he likes it. I feel for him and would loan him the $24k except he cannot make that big of a payment if I did not charge him any interest for 5 years. No wonder I despise lending companies almost as much as our Congress and government.
The cost of the vehicle is a moot point: the lease is what is referred to as a "sunk cost", which has to be paid, and it would be much cheaper to simply pay the 24K and drive the vehicle, rather than
1. Risk having the battery go bad and have to replace or pay for it at the end of the lease. Yes, HE would have to pay because he did not treat the car appropriately, and cars need to be driven.
2. Paying lease payments on top of whatever transportation costs the minister has in HI.
Actually, the car payments may not be bad if he goes with a 60 month payout - possibly similar to the lease payments.