Toyota on the mend?

boaz47 · November 2008

I knew you were but the MR-2 is gone as well. And it may be because Toyota is more concerned about being number one than the are with things like Scion and sports cars. Do they have a sports car?

Because of the new mindset I am not sure Scion will ever grow up and start a life on their own. More of how Toyota tries to show GM it can make a Saturn and then leaves it to swim on its own.

iluvmysephia1 · November 2008

small, sporty coupe that will be sold in America in 2010. The car is codenamed AE86 and will retail for around $18,000. The concept sketch looked rather sporty and like a small, modernized Supra/Celica.

fezo · November 2008

The MR2 was fun to drive so of course Toyota had to get rid of it. This has been one of the things they've done consistantly for 10 years.

boaz47 · November 2008

small, sporty coupe that will be sold in America in 2010. The car is codenamed AE86 and will retail for around $18,000. The concept sketch looked rather sporty and like a small, modernized Supra/Celica.

I can't tell you how many concept cars I have seen that never made it to market. In this economy I am not holding my breath. After all 35 years ago we were told they were working on pure EVs for everyone. The release date is a bit behind isn't it? And just what ever happened to my air car?

Did the great pumpkin show up for you this year?

nippononly · November 2008

More of how Toyota tries to show GM it can make a Saturn and then leaves it to swim on its own.

Just to be clear, Scion may not be at its peak sales level ever, but sales are steady. There is no danger of the brand's sales falling through the floor like GM did to Saturn in the 90s/early 00s unless Toyota kills Scion on purpose.

The AE86 project is a joint project with new-subsidiary Subaru, and I have no doubt they will produce it, if only because its mechanicals will mostly be taken directly from existing JDM Subarus and because Subaru needs a car like this just as much as Toyota does. But that car is at least two years out, judging by the last reports I read.

PS Boaz: I bet we haven't seen the last of the MR2 name. It's just taking a little break. ;-)

gagrice · November 2008

Except for the BIG SUVs Toyota is in the toilet with all the rest of the automakers.

nippononly · November 2008

Aren't Corolla and Camry sales pretty much unaffected by the market downturn? The big SUVs are down just like everyone else's, I believe, but since they were a small part of Toyota's sales overall, it hasn't been a killer for them.

What has been impacted is the pick-ups and the crossovers.

However, with October numbers now in, I will point out once again that of the Japanese Big 3, Toyota is down by far the most this year. This is true even though all 3 are now down. On the flip side, all 3 are doing better than the market overall.

And little Subaru, NOT one of the Japanese Big 3, continues to be one of only two automakers worldwide that is UP in sales for the year. :-)

boaz47 · November 2008

"The AE86 project is a joint project with new-subsidiary Subaru, and I have no doubt they will produce it, if only because its mechanicals will mostly be taken directly from existing JDM Subarus and because Subaru needs a car like this just as much as Toyota does. But that car is at least two years out, judging by the last reports I read."

I agree they both need it. Scion is not dead but it is no longer hot. Article after article and reviews after review plus Totota USA is saying it and I just posted it. You could be right and they don't know what they are talking about but at least they admit they have made a mistake in reguards to Scion. Their words not mine. I just wonder if the economy will be positive enough to launch another car in 24 months in the US. yes they both need it, contrary to what some have said Subaru sales were down 12 percent in September and for a small company that hurts more than Toyota. So Scion sells are down and the image is tarnished. Subaru is down and they need a helping hand. I can accept that. I simply can't accept the rose colored glasses so many have when they say, the reports can't be true my neighborhood is flooded with Scions.

It takes only a few minutes to check on the number of cars Scion is down and to look up what the management says about it. I know where you are coming from, you hang on to the bitter end as you did in your support of the Echo even as it circled the drain. I remember the supporters or the Baja even as it fell on its grill from day one. We enthusiasts and a stubborn lot and will support what we like and throw mud at what we don't like no matter what the numbers say. That is what makes these forums so interesting. So do you think they will have a Hybrid MR-2 or will they try to release a sports car in this economy?

nippononly · November 2008

LOL, boaz!

contrary to what some have said Subaru sales were down 12 percent in September

That was one of the best results of the entire market! They are up 2% for the year in a market that is down 15% overall! The domestics were off 30-50% for the month, the Japanese off around 25%, so Subaru down 12% is AWESOME given the trends all around it.

I think probably when Toyota talks about making a mistake with Scion, they don't mean a mistake in founding the brand, but rather a mistake in what they did with product after 2006. Will they be able to think outside the box (no pun intended :-P) long enough to rejuvenate this brand? I give them only 50/50 odds.

And a hybrid MR2? Yeah, I think it is likely, but not for quite a while. Supposedly this new 4-seat coupe for 2010 will have an available hybrid powertrain in addition to the Subaru-sourced 2-liter gas, and I suppose an MR2 arriving after that could use the same powertrain.

boaz47 · November 2008

well we still have the last quarter and the first quarter in 2009 to see if the trend stays or if Subaru joins the ranks of slumps. I say a small company that keeps getting picked up by larger companies is hurt more with a 10 to 12 percent slump that a company like Toyota would be.

iluvmysephia1 · November 2008

please clarify what you said about the new AE86 sports car from Toyota and Subaru. They're just working together on this new AE86, and Toyota is not buying up Subaru overall, right? If that happened it slipped right past me and my carnut reading enterprise here.

nippononly · November 2008

Nah, Toyota isn't buying Subaru or anything. I believe it took a 20% interest. Toyota is doing styling and parts-sharing, Subaru is doing the powertrain. Subaru fans are quite upset because so far Subaru has been saying it will sell the RWD coupe just like Toyota will, and of course the Sube-ophiles want nothing but AWD.

Me, I say it is a RWD coupe with decent fuel efficiency and a price under $20 grand. What's not to like? :-)

I believe Toyota and Subaru do have plans to work jointly on other projects in the future, and of course Subaru is already building Camrys for Toyota at its plant in Indiana, right alongside the Legacy/Outback line.

iluvmysephia1 · November 2008

I mean, with all the car reading I do, I would've caught that one somewhere by now. Sounds like there's a lot riding on the AE86. RWD? Dunno about that, FWD or even AWD seems more appropriate for that car.

The sketches looked pretty good, sporty little car it will be.

boaz47 · November 2008

In the US Subaru has been a bit like Jason in the movies. They have been up and down and near dead more than once. But one of the things they used to do is make TWD vehicles to try and match the compitition in fuel mileage. During the good days a few less miles per gallon didn't matter as long as you could point at someone driving a SUV and say you get better mileage than a Slade. But when people like you, not that it is a bad thing understand, start looking at Yaris, Fit and the rest Subaru simply doesn't have anything to bring to the table. I am talking entry level hyper mileage commuter cars. Sure Subaru doesn't do bad but no where near what the other guys are doing. So a TWD would be a sales boon to the little company. And if Toyota bought more of them than 20 percent it couldn't hurt in the long run.

louiswei · November 2008

Toyota is doing styling and parts-sharing, Subaru is doing the powertrain.

That's actually not a bad plan come to think about it... Although Toyota's styling really won't catch anything on fire but it is more promising than what the Subaru has to offer recently.

Just out of curiosity though, rumor has it that the coupe will be using Subaru's H4 instead of Toyota's new 2.7L I4. How do these two engines stack up against each other?

nippononly · November 2008

iluv: the new coupe is being planned as a RWD right from the start. If it were FWD I wouldn't be anywhere near as interested. Anyone can take their compact FWD sedan, lop off a couple of doors and call it "sporty". This will be sporty in more than just name, I am hoping.

louis: the H4 is Subaru's superb little 2.0 from Japan - they don't use it here. It should be more than enough for a coupe with a target weight of 2500 pounds or less.

louiswei · November 2008

louis: the H4 is Subaru's superb little 2.0 from Japan - they don't use it here. It should be more than enough for a coupe with a target weight of 2500 pounds or less.

Now this is getting exciting...

If the coupe is getting the EJ20X boxer with an AVCS twin-scroll turbo then that means the output will be 250 HP and 246 lb-ft of torque. I am going to be a little pessimistic here and assume the final weight to be around 2,750 lbs which means the power/torque to weight ratio will be something like 11 lbs/hp and 11.2 lbs/lb-ft.

For comparison purpose the IS350 has a power/torque to weight ratio of 11.6 lbs/hp and 12.8 lbs/lb-ft.

Which means with the Subaru 2.0L H4 the coupe will be guaranteed a 0-60 time of low 5 seconds and very tossible at around 2,700 lbs. Sounds like a winner to me, can anyone say: 370Z killer?

Although I still think that the US version might get the new Toyota 2.7L I4 at around 200hp for base model though.

nippononly · November 2008

I'm not an expert, but I believe they are talking about a naturally aspirated version of the Subaru 2.0. No way are you getting a turbo for that price, is what I'm thinking.

Now could Subaru sell a turbo version for the Subaru brand? Sure it could. But the under-$20K Toyota version will be around a 150 hp, NA 2L engine.

This will be a small car, and they are hoping to go significantly under 2500 pounds for final curb weight. That has me thinking the new Toyota 2.7 is WAY overkill for this little car, and would needlessly reduce fuel economy. I think it would also add cost, so I'm kind of hoping they don't use that one.

boaz47 · November 2008

I would have to agree with you that the 2.7 and the Turbo would both put it out range of anyone looking for an entry level sporty little car from Subaru. Maybe not for Toyota if they will be selling the same car but then it is "all" speculation at this point. It is unlikely it will make it for 2010 and who knows where we will be by then? And turbos are not known for good fuel mileage. Non boosted mileage is a dream for most people somehow that turbo just makes people stay in the go pedal. I am not going to start holding my breath now. Toyota has a habit of not delivering on time. Remember how long it took to get a full sized truck? Remember the press releases and the excitement from automotive magazines when they were going to release the first full sized truck? We got the T-100 with a tacoma engine. Remember when they finally released their first full sized PU? We got a 7/8 full sized truck. Remember the tC was going to be the Celica replacement?

Wait do I hear the famous "yabut" goat about to darken the forum door? Toyota is not the only one because every year for at least ten years we read from the "experts' that Nissan was going send over a real Skyline? Opps we first got the G-35. Experts have even a shorter memory than the public. :P

larsb · November 2008

'Yota was down the smallest percentage among the top automakers who sell in America.

Seems like they are doing fine.

iluvmysephia1 · November 2008

RWD? Apparently I have read that article a few months ago and that fact eluded me. Humm...I'm thinking 1.8L turbo 4 with a 5 or 6-speed tranny for this one. But if it's gonna be RWD I immediately think larger engine output and even turbo-charging for it. The car mags were showing a sketch, if any one has a pic of this little beast do pop it in here, K? This one should perk up a lot of car nut ears around these U.S.'s.

nippononly · November 2008

It wouldn't be a proper AE86 successor if it were anything but RWD, now would it? That was the reason the AE86 got so famous: lightweight, inexpensive, and RWD (and because it was a Corolla, almost infinitely moddable).

boaz: Toyota has in the past missed the specification targets for projects it was developing, but to my knowledge it has never missed a deadline once it officially announced when it was going to release something.

Anyway, it makes no difference in this case because the thing is already mostly done, as they relying heavily on existing platforms and powertrains....they might end up bringing it to market early, to compete head to head with Honda's CRX release late next year. Assuming Honda remains on time with that project, of course...

So the only question in my mind is the weight. Will they succeed in building a car that is at least as light as the 2000-2005 Celica, if not lighter? I suuure hope so, because I will be headed to the dealership in that case.

louiswei · November 2008

So many renderings out there, here ya go...

Source: Inside Line

Source: 7tune

Source: AUTOCAR

Source: Autoblog

raychuang00 · November 2008

I would love to see this car in the USA with the 2.0-liter Valvematic I-4 rated at around 147 bhp and a six-speed dual-clutch transmission. It'll be fun to drive and get reasonable fuel economy.

nippononly · November 2008

And yet it's pretty much guaranteed that it will use a Subaru engine instead. Toyota will be very focused on minimizing the cost of this model, so premium engines like the new Valvematic 2.0 will not be in play, I think.

iluvmysephia1 · November 2008

thanks for those renderings, louiswei. It's that one on the bottom that I saw in the car mags. This car could be a huge hit for Toyota, so far I don't read anything that says they're doing anything wrong with it's development, gentlemen.

Remember, they released the statement that they don't want this coupe to cost anything over $18,000. That would be really smart.

stever · November 2008

" The Japanese giant became the latest automaker to reveal plunging profits due to the financial crisis, following on the heels of BMW, Nissan and Honda.

Toyota , vying with General Motors for the title of the world's top automaker, cut its annual profit forecast by more than half after a terrible year so far. "

Toyota warns of 'unprecedented' crisis AFP

petl · November 2008

They are still going to make a profit (approx. 1.3 billion). You have to feel sorry for the US companies which are going to lose billions. And, with about 30 billion in the bank, they appear to still be in pretty good shape (for now).

boaz47 · November 2008

They are still going to make a profit (approx. 1.3 billion). You have to feel sorry for the US companies which are going to lose billions. And, with about 30 billion in the bank, they appear to still be in pretty good shape (for now).

Before you feel too sorry for the American auto manufacturers losing Billions you might want to feel sorry for yourself. As we speak the Three are meeting with the government for their share of of a bail out. It looks like they are going to get the money so guess who is going to pay for it? Nissan, Toyota and Honda are not eligible even though they have factories in the US, because they are foreign owned. If we can bail out wall street more than likely they will use our taxes to bail out GM, Chrysler and Ford. ( I don't have to agree with it to see it happening.)

nippononly · November 2008

I hadn't heard about at all until I started looking at some news articles from this week:

The U.S. market meltdown has upended Toyota's profit picture.

North America slumped to a $335.9 million operating loss in the April-September fiscal first half. Sales there slid 9.4 percent to 1.36 million vehicles in the period.

Operating LOSS in North America? Wow, that is probably unprecedented for Toyota.

Oh, and I'm not sure where the $1.3 billion profit figure came from, but this article says
Looking ahead, Toyota also slashed its global sales target. It now expects sales to fall 7.6 percent to 8.24 million units this fiscal year. It had earlier forecast 8.74 million vehicles.

Net income also will fall significantly, Toyota warned. The new outlook calls for a 68.0 percent drop to $5.34 billion for the year. That is less than half Toyota's earlier forecast for net income of $11.7 billion.

More significantly, that is down 2/3 from the normal figure of around $15 billion for annual profits at Toyota. Its fiscal year ends 3-31-09.

http://www.autonews.com/article/20081106/ANA02/811069985/1078

kdhspyder · November 2008

You're not looking at the big picture. Again....it's about currrency, currency, currency. It is THE key issue for a wide array of products; i.e. Yaris, Prius,4Runner, Highlander and RAV4, not to mention most of the Lexus lineup. Of these 5 vehicles only the very low priced Yaris is up. Why ship expensive vehicles from Japan into a declining market ( US ) with an increasingly worthless currency?

If they ship the production of these vehicles to other countries rather than the US they avoid having to absorb a 20% currency penalty and they don't have to fight the headwinds our declining mature market. IOW the decline is intentional.

I used to have to do this, make these product allocation decisions based on currency and profitability, over and over again in my prior job in the steel industry. It's just part of international trade.

Now when the new RAV plant in Ont, and the new Prius plant in Miss, and the new Highlander line in Ind come on stream over the next 6-18 months then there will be no currency penalty to absorb.

Note that the Camry and Corolla are down only nominally in this market where 20% to 30% declines are the norm. Everything about Toyota in NA still revolve around the Camry and Corolla.

kdhspyder · November 2008

It takes only a few minutes to check on the number of cars Scion is down and to look up what the management says about it. I know where you are coming from, you hang on to the bitter end as you did in your support of the Echo even as it circled the drain. I remember the supporters or the Baja even as it fell on its grill from day one. We enthusiasts and a stubborn lot and will support what we like and throw mud at what we don't like no matter what the numbers say. That is what makes these forums so interesting. So do you think they will have a Hybrid MR-2 or will they try to release a sports car in this economy?

Sales of Scions this year are equal to sales of Scions last year! And..this in a market that is down 25% overall and getting weaker. In addition this in the face of a currency which imputes a 20% revenue penalty on every Scion sale made here.

Hot? No. Stable, Yes.

louiswei · November 2008

Sales of Scions this year are equal to sales of Scions last year!

That's absolutely amazing, with the current economical situation.

And people are saying that Scion is in trouble?

:confuse:

nippononly · November 2008

What kdh didn't mention is that last year Scion had only one model to sell, while this year it has three including two that are BRAND NEW.

I bet they are wondering why they bothered to Toyot-ize the xA to produce the new xD. They probably could have made as many sales just continuing to sell the old xA....

louiswei · November 2008

What kdh didn't mention is that last year Scion had only one model to sell, while this year it has three including two that are BRAND NEW.

Well... I don't think what you are saying is correct either.

Last year the new xB was already out and I believe the old xB (which some people are saying that was selling better than the new one) was still on sale through the first half of 2007. Instead of xD Scion has the xA, the tC remain unchanged from '07 - '08. With that established, let's see the calendar year to date Scion sales numbers:

Modle 2008 2007

xA 39 9,513
xB 41,265 38,207
tC 37,904 56,500
xD 25,294 7,398

Overall 104,502 111,618

Source: Club Lexus

The tC sales number is lacking because it is getting long in teeth but overall the Toyo-sized xD and xB really didn't do worse than their predecessors.

Scion in trouble? I still don't buy it.

kdhspyder · November 2008

Actually last year through Oct 07 there were four Scions that were sold...
xA, xB, tC and xD....totalling ~112,000 units

In 2008 through Oct there were 3 Scions sold ( OK 4 if you count the 39 xA's sold in Jan )..
xB, tC and xD....totalling ~104,000 units

IMO the xD is a much better vehicle than the xA. The xB lost some of it's appeal to the target audience but that audience is so fickle that it's hard to keep it in the sights.

nippononly · November 2008

yes, and all xAs sold were 2006 models left over from prior to 12/06. All xBs through April were leftover '06s as well, after which the redesigned '08 became available.

The xD was released in August wasn't it?

My point was the only model year 2007 Scion EVER available was the tC. Yes, the '08 xD and xB were released during calendar 2007. I think we may have been talking at cross purposes.

boaz47 · November 2008

So you are saying Autoweek is wrong?

In the past, Scion routinely notched 15,000 to 20,000 sales per month. But January sales were 7,782 units. In January 2006, Scion sold 10,701 vehicles with about 60 fewer dealers than it has now. The average sales per outlet during that period dropped from 11.9 to 8.1.i>

http://www.autoweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080303/FREE/122766980/1023/- rss01&rssfeed=rss01

And this quote is from an unreliable sourse?
"Changeover fumbled
But Jim Lentz,u> president of Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A., concedes that Scion mishandled last year's model changeover.
Fearing that holdovers could harm the brand's hipness, Toyota stopped production of the old xA and xB in December 2006. But production of the vehicles had already been slowing, and dealers quickly ran dry of product. Meanwhile, the carryover tC coupe was starting to show its age.
The redesigned xB didn't reach showrooms until March, and the new xD didn't arrive until August.
"We underestimated the loss of momentum from the dark period for those two vehicles," said Lentz, who once ran the Scion brand. "The way Scion is marketed, it takes longer to get traction."

To farther help support the contention by both Toyota and Autoweek here is the chart confirming the sales slump over the last 13-16 months.

http://www.autoweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080303/FREE/122766980/1023/- rss01&rssfeed=rss01&template=zoom&Site=CW&Date=20080303&Category=FREE&ArtNo=1227- 66980&Ref=V2&Profile=1023&CRED=

Once again the argument would be with Toyota and autoweek's contention that Scion was down in sales. Some are just reporting the information.

stever · November 2008

We saw an xA last night and my wife (who likes the xD a lot) liked the xA styling too. Maybe Toyota should have kept it around a while longer.

nippononly · November 2008

Problem was, it was the Japan-market ist, which was replaced that year. There was no way for them to continue making it just for export to America as the xA.

I think the updates to the xA to make it the xD were actually quite minor, except for its use of the Corolla engine and consequent drop in fuel economy.

The one that really got Toyot-ized and totally alienated its former customer base was the xB.

kdhspyder · November 2008

I don't care much whether Autoweek is right or wrong. Toyota admitted that it mishandled the transition of the models and it did. For the present though the Scion brand is steady thus far in 2008 in what is a horrible market in the US. That's an accomplishment. That's all that can be said.

I think it's too early to sound the death knell. The peak for Scion sales was 2006 when they reached 172,000 units
2005 .. 156K
2006 .. 172K
2007 .. 130K
2008 .. 120k-ish ??? in a horrible market.

Currency issues will have a much more significant effect on volume in 2009 IMO. Today 98 JY / US$.

boaz47 · November 2008

Still dropping from156k to 120k is by no means saying things are just fine. It is also a confirmation of fewer sales in 08 over 07 as Nioopn said. No one called the death knell but still sales are off just like Nippon and I said. Scion is no longer hot according to Toyota themselves. So when you see water in the bilge it might be time to turn on the pumps before it fills the cabin. Looking at things through rose colored glasses and saying their sales are just fine is dis agreeing with Toyota themselves. Toyota posted the unit sales drop and Autoweek simply re posted them. Now looking at the chart I can imagine how happy the stock holders must have been with the results. I don't think a condescending, "Its ok don't worry" would have cut it in a board room meeting. It more than likely wouldn't make anyone smile if you said, at least we aren't Chrysler. This is a new experience for toyota and their stock holders.

kdhspyder · November 2008

I don't deny that potentially the bloom is off the rose in terms of a the Scions being a dynamic minibrand within Toyota but nevertheless it is still solid. Also as I pointed out in a prior post the currency situation along with a depressed NA market means that there is no incentive whatsoever to pump money into the US lineup.

The Scions are low-margin vehicles for everyone, manufacturer, dealer and seller. Given this low margin and the fact that all Scions are made in Japan it makes no sense to intentionally take a 10-20% currency penalty.

Again note that except for the very low priced Yaris and the Prius ALL the higher volume Toyo/Lexus vehicles made in Japan are down significantly. I read this as intentional on the part of the product planners there in redirecting the flow of products away from the US to other countries with stronger currencies.

2009 may be much more of the same with the current exchange rates.

nippononly · November 2008

I read this as intentional on the part of the product planners there in redirecting the flow of products away from the US to other countries with stronger currencies

I think you are reading a bit much into this situation. There is no evidence to support your read, and indeed Toyota's INCREASE in Yaris exports from Japan to meet the higher-than-expected demand here is evidence to the contrary, especially given that small cars like Yaris are low-margin units to begin with.

duke23 · November 2008

nippononly wrote :
"I think you are reading a bit much into this situation. There is no evidence to support your read, and indeed Toyota's INCREASE in Yaris exports from Japan to meet the higher-than-expected demand here is evidence to the contrary, especially given that small cars like Yaris are low-margin units to begin with. "
Ahhh crap , I had actually agreed at great effort some posts back. Please note: We are in a Recession. All car sales suck. Including Toyota.
See last quarterly sales. Whether Yaris or Scion they doth bite the big one. Please validate your thesis.Tia.

kdhspyder · November 2008

Well if you exclude the LC and LX570 which are ultra niche vehicles the only vehicle from Japan that has more volume this year over last is the Yaris. Every other one is down across both the Toyota line and the Lexus line.

For the Yaris it's not so much of a problem because the absolute loss due to currency valuations is small because the cost and the selling prices are small. 10% of a $10000 vehicle is somewhat acceptable on a limited basis. 10% on a $30000 vehicle starts to add up to big money....and then it's these very vehicles that are acting like anchors on the lots.

iluvmysephia1 · November 2008

for xA sales, and that was the year I considered buying one. I still like the styling of the "old-school" xA. The car says "let's play" to me.

boaz47 · November 2008

I still like the styling of the "old-school" xA. The car says "let's play" to me.

It always said to me, "I am the slowest selling Scion and I need to be replaced. But I least I am better than an echo." :P But for me it was way better looking than the old xB. And everything is better looking than the new xB. well maybe not a Honda Element.

fezo · November 2008

The Honda Element has saved many a vehicle from being teh ugliest thing you can buy.

I still think the Axtek was the ugliest thing produced in recent memory but you can't buy one new anymore so the Element wins.

gagrice · November 2008

Yes the Element took over where the Aztek left off. Toyota is trying hard to dethrone them both. The new xB being a real good try.

Toyota on the mend?

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