Where Is Ford taking the Lincoln Motor Company?

[Deleted User] · July 2006

Yes, setting the new Nav grill aside as a single issue, it does seem Lincoln needs to settle on some sort of design theme that would identify a Lincoln vehicle in people's minds. There is a small common element now in the grills of the 07 Mark LT, the 07 MKZ and the proposed MKS. But then we have the very different Nav grill and the even more different (though historically Lincoln-themed) MKX grill.

And that is only talking grills. The rest of the vehicles are all very disparate. The Nav and the Mark LT bear almost no family resemblance, even though they are chassis mates. The Town Car, MKZ and MKS could easily be designs from different manufacturers in different parts of the globe, if not for the Lincoln badging.

I'm not talking adopting a cookie cutter look or different sizes of the same shape. I mean that a BMW looks like a BMW, an Audi looks like an Audi, a Mercedes looks like a Mercedes, a Cadillac looks like a Cadillac...even a Pontiac looks like a Pontiac. Lincoln needs to define again what a Lincoln looks like.

displacedtexan · July 2006

Lincoln needs to define again what a Lincoln looks like.

As far as design theme goes, Lincoln is back to where it was in the 1950s, changing every 3 years without defining what a Lincoln should look like, or be. That didn't get settled until the 1961 Continental and held within the car lines.

I'd have to think about design themes, other than grills, between such disparate vehicles as a Navigator and a MKZ. I think the concept Aviator and concept Continental did a good job of defining some commonalties, other than the grills.

aviboy97 · July 2006

Anyone see the new design for the lincoln MKS? It is much more sleek then the current Lincoln Zepher. Check it out on their web site.

nvbanker · July 2006

"The Escalade has a great new body, while the Nav makes do with the previous one."

What you say is true, gregg - however, the Escalade was restyled, as were the other GM900T
iterations of the new SUVs, to look more like, and resemble the Ford SUVs. They are higher like the Navigator and it's lesser cousins, and more square.
I still contest that the new Escalade interior trumps the Navigator's, which so trumped CAdillac in 03, it was amazing any Cadillacs were sold. They would not have been, except for Ford bigotry and power issues.

[Deleted User] · July 2006

The new Navigator interior looks downgraded from the 03 version, whereas the 07 Escalade is a great leap forward for Cadillac, and would now sit well in a Mercedes or Land Rover.

It doesn't matter if you think the GM iterations now look more like the Fords (which I don't see...GM really put out a balanced looking design front to back this time), the point is, they are new and look new, even if they do look more like the Ford products to some people than they did before. The Fords will still look like the 99 versions with new front clip and rear end styling. That never draws the buyer like a whole new, well-executed body does.

That's why I think the over the top Nav grill will ultimately be a good decision. It will get the thing noticed--unlike the change, for example, from the 05 Explorer to the 06. Although the Explorer has a completely new front end, it only elicited yawns from most buyers of mid-size SUVs.

nvbanker · July 2006

Yeah, what they DID do to the Explorer, inside and out, were NOT positives, IMO. That interior flat sucks to me, and the outside is a yawner, as you say, or worse.

Well, the grille on the Navigator may get it noticed, but I'm not sure it will be a good thing. The 74 AMC Matador was noticed too....

nvbanker · July 2006

The GMT900s LOOK new, but they aren't new. And the stupid third seat that still causes a hernia when you take it out is unacceptable to me. Do they have to be the last company on earth to discover what Ford showed them how to do 4 years ago? Nissan has copied it, Toyota is working on it for their next Land Cruiser/LX470, here GM brings out their "all new" SUVs, uh, well, not really, but they're cute! :lemon:

douglasr · July 2006

"Don't Let it Die..."

James J. Nance, CEO of Packard, wrote in a memo during 1954 while Packard was spending $18Mn for a new V8 engine plant, and design. He was refering to his desire to revive the V12 Packard, and had directed his engineering Chief to look into building the V12 from the same tooling as the V8. May 27, 1953 Jesse G. Vincent responded to Nance that tooling expenses for both the V8 & V12: "should not be greatly in excess of the tooling now underway." As late as June 18, 1954 Packard still considered a V12 for 1956-57 in a note from Packard's Diretor of Purchasing Roger Bremer to Nance that the project was not dead. Nance replied: "Keep it alive...." The V12 was a response to the Mark II, and rumors about Eldorado Brougham.

Packard's capital expenditures made by Jim Nance, sadly, were never sustained the sales of cars during his tennure as the last President of Packard Motors, attempting to revitalise the company. The V12 never saw the light of day. But Packard's Predictor Show Car of 1957, designed by Richard Teague forshadowed the 1958 Lincoln (and even the Edsel). Nance would leave Studebaker-Packard to take over Mercury-Edsel-Lincoln Division at the invitation of Henry Ford II and Earnest Breech in 1957. Yet the fascinating fact is that he seriously considered it as part of his plan to push Packard back into the top-line luxury market after having ceded it to Cadillac and Lincoln. He ran out of time and working capital.

Mark Fields today may well be faced with the same situation with respect to Lincoln. Ford Motor has $25Bn in cash on hand, and an ample line of credit, yet its stock price is in the doldrums, and its ability to borrow heavily emasculated by its now junque status in the bond markets, and high risk factors asigned by Moody's and Standard & Poors---Ford Motor more likely to default on its loans than GM. So his field of maneouvre may well be prescribed by the Ford Finance Comittee. In a recent interivew in Motor Trend, he admits as much: "although Lincoln may become the volume brand at L-m dealers." adding: "Lincoln will inch up a bit upmarket but will remain at the lower end of the premium segment."

Therein lies the rub. With Jaguar consuming so much captial to forestall its complete collapse in the market-place, despite the success of the XK, Lincoln is left with being repositioned within the Ford Motor Empire. At least there are "inches" to talk about. The demise, however, of Town Car and Wixom will present Lincoln with the same problems that Packard faced after WWII, when it had no top-line cars to sell, and in later years competed against Buick, Oldsmobile, and later Mercury for colume sales. Few of its top-line Caribbeans could capture enough sales to make a dent against Cadillac and Lincoln. Without Town Car, and a viable replacement, Lincoln will inch up in one direction, but ultimately it seems from Mr. Fields dual meaning, that Lincoln won't be seen as the player it once was within the Ford Motor Empire.

Mr. Fields may well be in precisely the same position that James J. Nance was at Packard in 1953. Which way will Lincoln roll?

DouglasR

(Sources: 'Motor-Trend Magazine' July 2006; 'Fall of the Packard Motor Company', James W. Ward, Standford University Press, 1995. California.)

douglasr · July 2006

James J. Nance...the last President of Packard, had to overcome a company that had become complacent and/or moribund, revamp his factories, his products, energise his dealer network (in anticipation of increased sales), bring out new products, and find a way to keep sales consistent enough to finance expansion and future automobiles and engineering features. To that end he replaced executives, brought in new talent, spent $18Mn for an automated engine plant, planned a V8 & V12, spent $7Mn to equip a new auto-body and assembly line, replaced past advertising accounts with new ideas and fresh blood, plus flogging the product in many new venues (as TV was then) and reaching new customers. Packard had planned to GO BACK up-market as much as it had also planned to spread their product base, either acquiring or merging with another firm.

Ford Motor would have surpassed GM as the premiere American Auto Manufacturer had it not lost almost 8% of its market-share and retained its traditional 25.7% share from 1998. The Nasser gamble would then have appeared to be a masterstroke. Of course, Ford acquired MORE capacity and more brands during the Nasser Era. So conversely Ford Motor should have roughly one third of the U.S. market today instead of less than 20%, its lowest since 1927. Lincoln receiving fewer investment dollars than many other divisions and products since then. The change in fortunes, losing one quarter of its market, certainly bad news.

Packard routinely spent $31-$60 per vehicle between 1946-1954 on future engineering, (sometimes more than Cadillac)---roughly 6% of the purchase price at the time. Ford Motor today spends, similarly, 6.5% of its capital on R & D., about $300 per car---still one third to a quarter what they spend on Health Care per car! When VWAG upgraded its product line in the 1990's under Dr. Piech, VWAG's R & D spending increased to above 8% of capital expenditures---the improvements later showing up in the next generation of cars allowing VWAG to hold its position, and gain (in the case of Audi) many new customers. Precisely the same strategy used by Toyota and Honda when they were trying to crack the American market.

When Nance took on Packard, having come from Hotpoint, Packard sold 146,441 cars in 1948-9, and 106,040 in 1950, and another 100,312 in 1951 with the all new 23rd & 24th Series cars. Nance planned on volumes of 120,000 cars to 150,000 cars for the future. Thus he made his capital investments based upon that...only to see Packard plummet in the market due to many circumstances. In 1952 when Packard was planning its V8 & V12 motors, Lincoln sold 27,271 cars while at the same time it launched the Mark II Division planning and design under William Clay Ford Sr. Some of Lincolns lowest production years came at a time when Lincoln and Ford Motor decided to heavily invest in Lincoln for its future.

Mr. Fields today is working from a similar situation, both in terms of Mr. Nance at Packard---Lincoln only recently having passed Cadillac only to fall precipitously in the market-place; and William Clay Ford at Continental and Lincoln, wanting to revive the brand at a time when Lincoln sales were declining and very small. Work on the '52 Lincoln had often been done by executives 'moon-lighting' at home in order to preserve the brand from extinction at the hands of Earnest Breech in 1949-51. Now Mr. Fields is tasked with "saving" Lincoln, thus it falls under his rubric. So he is, without doubt, taking the path the James J. Nance of Packard did: closing "inefficient" factories, discarding old ways and means of doing things, shaking up the rank and file, planning for a future based on LXY,CXY units---hoping his numbers will be borne out and further attrition not needed. Coming from IBM to run an auto unit, he is not unike James J. Nance coming from GE's Hotpoint at the behest of Corporate Treasurer Hugh Ferry at Packard to run Packard Motor, only this time Mr. Fields unlike Nance, was hired by a member of the Ford family, (Nance also asked by HF II to run a division of the company after Packard failed!) Wanting indeed to repeat the 80% market pennetration now enjoyed in 2006 by Ford-Brasil within its position against other makes, after having nearly quit Brasil in 1998!, for almost any of the brands he takes on.

Mr. Fields is "skeptical" of moving Lincoln beyond the lower priced segment of the Premium Market. Zephyr acting very much like the old Zephyr in the 1930's, and also the 120 for Packard---the now successful entry-level car. Yet he should take note that one of the prime reasons why Packard sales plummeted, wreaking havoc on well laid plans of Mr. Nance, was that Packard had failed both the restart production of its premium cars after 1946 (selling the dies to Russia), and not balancing off its lower priced models with very high premium priced and exclusive models to compete above Lincoln, Cadillac and Imperial. The public expectation of what Packard was, against what it became sank the confidence of future buyers. James Ward writes in his treatise on Packard: "Packard did not so much as fall from great heights as to see other automkers climb up to them and offer the consumer the same comforts, in a larger range of models for a few hundred dollars less. Packards became less distinctive, and progressively cost them what was left of their reputation." Packard had become a competitor for Buick. And that is the risk Mr. Fields takes with Lincoln---making the cars less distinctive from the average fair or Hyundais.

If no top-line model is offered or intimated, a notch above Town Car, in addition to retaining its traditional model, the public perception of what Lincoln is will permanently shift away from where it was---with declining sales. All that will be left will be a shadow of its former self, making it difficult for Lincoln to regain its pre-eminent position, much less sell the volumes that Mr. Fields anticipates and is now planning for. Zephyr is a great start, but now must come the icing on the cake: a Lincoln layer cake...far beyond Mark S. It will take about $500 per car from Ford Motor's spending to do it, not unlike what WCF Sr. had in 1952-55. Otherwise Mr. Fields will be leaving things to chance, or rather, 'Nance.

DouglasR

(sources: ibid, Ward; Standford; 'The Packard, 1942-1962' Nathaniel T. Dawes, A.S Barnes & Co, NY & London, 1975; 'The Lincoln MotorCar, Sixty Years of Excellence' Thomas E. Bonsall, Bookman Publishing, Baltimore 1981)

nvbanker · July 2006

See, douglasr nails it, because Lincoln is an aspirational brand. And what gives the entry level buyer of the Zephyr a desire to own it, is that up the line at Lincoln, is a much more expensive and gorgeous performing model, that someday they want to own. Owning a Zephyr gets them in the club, and they can say, "I own a Lincoln".

But, if there is no flagship to aspire to, why do I want a Zephyr? Why do I want a 3 series if there is only a 3 series? So, if the Town Car is cancelled, there is no semblance of a flagship left! I mean, it's not much of a flagship anymore, but it at least has a presence, it's nice looking and big. Still has some cache. Moronic not to make a nice Lincoln. If they're not going to bring something out, they should cancel the Zephyr.

heyjewel · July 2006

" If they're not going to bring something out, they should cancel the Zephyr. "

They DID. They're bringing out the MK Z or MKZ whatever.

Well they will be bringing out a 'flagship' real soon now. Trouble is, it'll be flying the flag of it's mother country, Sweden, rather than Old Glory. Oh well, in a day when the Toyota Sienna is more "Made in AMerica" than the Ford Mustang, the phrase "What're ya gonna do?" waxes philosophic.

Again I remind that I've seen the FF (future flagship) of Lincoln and it ain't the MK S or MKS, whatever. There's a bigger croc lurking in the Lincoln garage. It's superb looking, in a MKSS sorta way. Whaat'ya bet they call it the MK C or MKC whatever. I get to take another look pretty soon thanks to a Marketing Research company that apparently has a too-short list of Luxo-Sedan owners. I am looking forward to it. Can't say nothin more tho ... :>)

Lastly, the other evening at dusk, I was rollin thru a small town near here when I was attracted by a real PRESENCE on the road. A car was coming toward me that demanded attention. It was a black 1960 or 61 suicide door Lincoln Continental. Man that is one bad-[non-permissible content removed] beautiful car. Looks great comin or goin. Nicely chromed (as opposed to the '07 Navigator) and stylish. If ONLY the "Brains" at Lincoln had gone further with the Continental concept. If ONLY they would reconsider doing so. That would be a Lincoln for a Zephyr owner to aspire to.

ehaase · July 2006

Again I remind that I've seen the FF (future flagship) of Lincoln and it ain't the MK S or MKS, whatever. There's a bigger croc lurking in the Lincoln garage

Automotive News said that vehicle (D or E386) was cancelled.

[Deleted User] · July 2006

Yes, it has been reported several times that the flagship proposal was killed. Based on the Volvo (like the MKS), it just didn't work.

scootertrash · July 2006

"Again I remind that I've seen the FF (future flagship) of Lincoln and it ain't the MK S or MKS, whatever. There's a bigger croc lurking in the Lincoln garage"

Don't you mean "crock" As in "Lincoln's future is apparently a crock of..." ?

nvbanker · July 2006

"Don't you mean "crock"

Gee, scooter - when you put it that way, it sounds very negative!

douglasr · July 2006

...James J. Nance ran Packard as best he knew how, and at the end of the day Packard died; HF II hired him to run the MEL Division and it died too.

...Mr. Fields may not yet prove himself to be the 'Ghost of Nance Past', but the march of Lincoln at the moment proves that there remains a disconnect between the executives making the decisions and the market-place. The Ask Dr Z's campaign is an in-your-face slap at Bill Ford---while WCF tauts safety and environmental issues, Zetsche talks about cars. What is lacking at Lincoln, is the voice to save it, and the people to back it up. Mr. Fields may well feel that he is right---as most people believe that they are right from the start, till proven otherwise---but the reality remains that no product or future announcements have been made with respect to Lincoln, either the fate of Town Car, or its replacement. The public will not long wait for that either.

The team at Ford may think they are doing the right thing, but from where I sit, all I see is opportunity missed---and one should never miss out on what does not know---and Mr. Fields appears not to know a great deal when it comes to Lincoln. It is clear that there remains a great majority of Americans wishing for greater cars from Lincoln, who do not wish to buy Lexus, Hyundai, or what-have-you.

Just remember, (ohh not really, for few people know about it), the Packard Predictor, styled by Dick Teague under Bill Schmidt at Packard for 1957. The still-born car gave 14 other cars ideas, Edsel and 1958 Lincoln, not to mention 1963 Corvette and Pontiac, included. The kind of car that Lincoln needs to create today---something Mr. Horbury's Mark S tried to do as the 'poor-man's-Aston'. We can't forget that the current Town Car was borne of an Aston-Martin Show Car from 1995-96. Yet the type of car that Predictor was for Packard, is the kind of car that Lincoln needs now. Not to mention an evocative vehicle from times past.

Let us not forget, that while Fields is fielding his ideas, Ford Motor long before had the where-with-all to build great cars, and still can. Let us hope that Mr. Nance' fate does not befall Lincoln and Mr. Fields.

DouglasR

heyjewel · July 2006

"Don't you mean "crock" As in "Lincoln's future is apparently a crock of..." ?

Pretty cute, scoot.

I didn't want to say 'Gator' cause they already got one of those.

Some say it's cancelled, but ANT says they're working on a TC replacement. I figure that's what I've seen. And will see again today, unless I miss my guess. I'm quite interested in what they'll be showing now, as compared with last year and a half ago. Since it'll prolly be adjusted based on these focus groups, I have my doubts it'll be any 'better' from my point of view. My bet is the 'sportier' of the two will be gone and there'll be one model left. Hope they have an interior to look at this time. Last time it was balsa wood and putty. But that still looked better than the Caddy interior:>)

I'll be signing an NDA so won't be able to post much but you all will see the fruits in a mere, what, 2 or 3 years!.

If I walk in there and see a version of the Continental Concept, I'll start saving my pennies. Else, I doubt there's a Lincoln in my future what with the LS gone, the Navigator pimped-out for young Snoop-Doggs with braces, the MK X looking like a Gremlin with an AMC Spirit grille, the MK Z with it's blue-hair set D-L driving experience and made in Mexico production plate. Oh well. Had a Mark VIII, a Getrag LS and an '04 Gator. Nice run, Lincoln, but as George Harrison said before he passed "All things must Pass".

Onward to view the MK FF or MK F'd whatever.

scootertrash · July 2006

Lincoln's and Ford's REAL problem is not what concept car you're looking at, it's the fact that after a year and a half, they have made nothing more than additional clay models.
Meanwhile, their Lincoln division is dying like an arm with a tournequette on it. Go or get off the pot.

On an different note: Did anyone see today's interview with Carlos Ghosn? It sounds like he hinted Ford was interested in hooking up with him or Nissan/Renault. I hope that means Billy knows he's in over his head.

heyjewel · July 2006

Well, I'm back from my focus group. And I can't say anything about what I saw. Anything specific that is. I can probably legally say that, based on what I saw today, there is no reason to believe that Lincoln has ANY clue what it is doing or where it wants to go. They seem to be throwing designs up against the wall to see what sticks. And apparently nothing is sticking.

I will say that today's experience did nothing to reassure me that Ford has not cancelled the bigger Lincoln in the works. Cause this was not about that. Also, it did NOT reaffirm what ANT has said about Lincoln competing with Buick and not Cadillac as all the competition there were the big Luxo players incl Caddy, Acura, Infiniti and Lexus. No Buicks. I guess that's all. Nothing really substantial there. It really galls me though that Ford would pay an exhorbitant amount of money (that's my assumption) to a marketing research firm to do this "research" which when all is said and done amounts to "which grille do you like better"? For gawd's sake, Lincoln, take a look at your heritage and quit trying to be Japanese.

BTW, IMHO Carlos Ghosn is clueless. Last thing Ford needs is ANYTHING to do with Renault. Ask anyone who's owned one.

douglasr · July 2006

'They seem to be throwing designs up against and wall and see what sticks...' HJ has commented after seeing Lincoln's future. Desingers do that as a matter of course, but to present ideas in that fashion to the public shows just how out of touch Mr. Field's & Co seem to be. At the same moment Ford Motor cut its dividend in order to save $374Mn. Second Quarter results must show a larger loss for Ford Motor in North America---probably $750-850 a car, or close to $2Bn---given the shift away from trucks and towards cars. Mr. Ford remarks on that issue: "The product plans have that baked in...the Way Forward Plan did not anticipate how quickly the mix would shift."

An astounding admission from Mr. Ford. The Way Forward Plan was announced this year, and anyone could see the rising demand for cars against SUV's. Given remarks of Mr. Horbury, we can see that Lincoln had placed its chips on more truck based vehicles ('Luxury for the Blue Jeans set), than cars, and now Lincoln is caught flat-footed. One more reason to keep Town Car alive. Wall-flower design testing merely means the arguments about what to do with Lincoln are really heating up within Ford Motor. At the same time Bill Ford has said few words about product specifics, just generalisations about types of vehicles---he could learn a thing or two from Bob Lutz. A peak into the future would do wonders to bolster public confidence in the Blue Oval.

The open revolt at GM, with Kerkorian leading the take-over bid from the GM Board-room, will consume valuable time at GM, but its no doubt that if that romance fails, that Mr. Ghosn might be compelled to approach Ford---though he has already turned down Bill Ford once before---especially if Ford's market share dips below 18%. Though no one beleives for an instant Mr. Ghosn's claim he is not interested in running GM, he turned down WCF Jr. because he knew he would not be 'Top Man' at Ford Motor---he would always have to contend with the Ford Family.

Therein leaves Lincoln. WCF Jr. needs a few ads and sneak previews of future Lincolns, Mercury and Ford cars---enough to tantalise, but not enough to give away the farm and kill sales of existing models. Mr. Ford should stop driving his Mustang for a while and start driving a Town Car. (But if he did that...he'd have to keep it alive...admitting that they paid for no new revisions to the car...and have to hustle to bring in a replacement or upgrade to the TC!)

DouglasR

(Sources: WSJ, NYT, FT)

heyjewel · July 2006

Just to get this out of the way - recall what happened to the last US automaker who formed an 'Alliance' with Renault. I am speaking of course of the perenially-troubled AMC which was driven into bankruptcy and a firesale to Chrysler after trying to service the pathetically unreliable Renault designed vehicles they were selling.
Follow-up point - the great Lee Iacocca promised not to close the oldest working auto factory in the country when he purchased AMC. That was their plant in Kenosha, Wisconsin. He reneged on his promise in less than 2 years.
Final point - with all the retro pony cars: Mustang, Camaro, Challenger ... being reintroduced these days, this loss of AMC means we'll never see a retro Javelin, my personal favorite along with the Cougar. And it looks to me like the entity that made the original Cougar, Mercury, does not exist anymore either. Perhaps the woman-oriented Mercury car company will introduce the updated version of the Cougar called, say, the Pussycat.

heyjewel · July 2006

Follow up to Doug and my post yesterday. Natch you all know I don't really know what I'm talking about. Vis-a-vis what I saw yesterday and last year I mean:>) I don't know the whys and wherefores of these mktg studies, what 'they' are trying to learn, what is the possible destiny of the cars they show and ask opinions about. I can only speculate based on my limited knowledge and what I see.
My speculation from what I saw yesterday is ... I erased the para I had written. I just dont think it's fair of me to speculate too much based on 2 hours of mktg research. All I can say is that I didn't see anything related to larger cars. Everything was related to present and future versions of existing cars. I guess I will say that I was not too impressed with the ideas presented. Thats all.
One thing they are definitely trying to learn is how much differentiation they need to put into the looks of their cars to 'fool' the public into thinking they're looking at an all new model, rather than a slightly reskinned version of the same car.
Signing off as the mostly happy owner of 2 Lincolns, an 01 and an 04 who does not see anything in Lincolns future that entices me in the least. I also am extremely disappointed that once again an AMerican car company started down the road to building world class cars to compete with the best from Europe and Japan and then just dropped the ball and went off in another direction. WHY can't Ford/Lincoln FOCUS on the target and keep their eye on the ball? Is it the way American companies must answer to the stockholders on a quarterly basis? Is it the stranglehold placed on cash flow by the burdensome contracts with the UAW? Is it the outrageous salaries etc paid to execs who have no loyalty to the company when all is said and done? Is it the revolving door of execs in charge of Lincoln over the past 5 years? Should a parts manager, Hazel, have been put in charge of Lincoln? WHat did he accomplish? Why is so much money spent on concept cars (Continental, Mark X hardtop convertible, etc) when execs announce that there's no way these cars will ever be built on the same day they introdce the cars? How much money is paid to marketing research firms to find out what % of folks like grille treatment A better than B?
6 or so years ago when I found Edmunds and the Lincoln LS was being introduced there was an air of total excitement on the LS board. Auto buyers were anxiously awaiting their new LSes, some, like me, were waiting a year and ordering, others were drooling over this American sedan that was the best thing ever to come out of Detroit to take on the likes of BMW. No, the LS was not perfect out of the gate but it was a great start. CR called it the "best American sedan they ever tested". We all thought that the car would only get better and Lincoln seemed interested in what the enthusiasts had to say about the car. Well, 03 rolled around and there were some definite improvements, more HP via VVT, better interior design esp console, and a few other nits, but even more importantly Lincoln gave up on trying to build a BMW fighter because they dropped the option of a 5 speed manual tranny instead of doing what many had hoped which was put a beefier tranny in and offer it with the V8. This was the moment that Lincoln dropped the ball. Who made the call? I dunno. But Lincoln is now going down a different road. Back to the rolling couch I guess. Did they lose too many blue-hairs because of LS instead of Continental? All I can say is it's a shame. Now the Lincoln boards here on Edmunds have no excitement. An occasional person will ask about the Zephyr, but the Z is no enthusiast car and is about as exciting as ... well as a Milan. Nice looking but boring in the tradition of the Monarch and Versailles.
My wife, who was instrumental in us getting a 5 speed LS has no further use for Lincoln. She is pushing us in the direction of Infiniti, a company which is building BMW fighters and powerful, exciting cars which can be had with manual transmissions. About as American as sushi, but maybe it's time I give up on Americanism as much as it has given up on me. Its the new world order now. American cars are made in Mexico and Japanese cars are made in Ohio. The UAW is sucking the lifeblood out of American car companies and voting Democratic, which sucks the lifeblood out of the taxpayer. I cant be bothered caring about them any longer. My next car decision will not be partially influenced by "is it made in America, will it benefit American workers, etc" as my last few decisions have been. Rather it will be solely based on is it the best vehicle in it's class for what I want it to do? Will it hold it's value well? Is it reliable? Does the manufacturer appear to have a consistent view of what their cars are and what they will be? At this point, it does not seem likely that Lincoln will be in the mix.

scootertrash · July 2006

"My wife, who was instrumental in us getting a 5 speed LS has no further use for Lincoln. She is pushing us in the direction of Infiniti, a company which is building BMW fighters and powerful, exciting cars which can be had with manual transmissions."

And who makes Infiniti? - Nissan-Renault.

No one is talking about the Renault LeCar or AMC Alliance- Don't obfuscate the discussion unless you want to discuss the Versailles too.

But tell me who seems to understand the modern version of luxury for people under 70)- Lincoln or Infiniti?

Which dealership would you want to own?

heyjewel · July 2006

Obfuscate the discussion? I mention AMC and I'm obfuscating? Get real.

Oh and Renault has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with Infiniti. Mon dieu.

And I already answered your question - read my post. And take a hike.

scootertrash · July 2006

Wow, someone's cranky this morning.

--Infiniti is Nissan and Carlos Ghosn is running Nissan and Renault. And Ford has no LEADER.

--AMC went out of business because other then the Renaults, they were only selling updated versions of the Gremlin and Hornet as the Spirit and Eagle.

The company died in the late 70's and the Renault deal was nothing more than artificial life support until the organs could be harvested for transplant (Jeep)

--Focus groups are for frightened bureaucrats who are scared to make decisions on their own. If you give a focus group what makes them comfortable, your product is timid, dumbed down and obsolete upon introduction. (see: Ford 500)

Here's the lesson to summarize the last 200 posts on this topic:

Leaders don't ask what people want, They tell them.

[Deleted User] · July 2006

Ford... You know the best selling Ford car, company wide right now? Not Fusion, not Mustang. It is the hoary old Taurus. Even though it is ONLY sold now via fleet business, it still sells enough units each month to almost equal Fusion and 500 sales combined. Now that's sad. This company is clearly directionless. Looks as though they could have done much better with car sales if they had simply called the Fusion "Taurus."

I think that portends what renaming Lincoln models will do for sales: nothing.

douglasr · July 2006

"A confusing name and boring styling won't resuscitate Ford's Luxury Brand" Automobile Magazine writes of Mk S, adding: "If you really want a design hit, don't copy the Japanese---take some risks, have you noticed what's going on at Cadillac?"

AM reviews all the upcoming show cars, and probable production vehicles in their latest issue, and Lincoln does not fair well at all. While Aston's Rapide gets nothing but high marks: "If anything, the four-door treatment enhances the presence and beauty of the coupe's form language..." The new presaged Jaguars get similar treatment. Lincoln is all but forgotten amidst the breadth-taking list of new cars coming soon.

LS---yes two of my friends bought them new, one with a five speed, which they still own. (A family that owns five, count-'em: five Lincolns from Continentals to Town Cars, including a Mark Viii) ...will not buy another..."They've left me no place to go.") One purchase made by my friend's wife, who is an engineer, and insisted on the five speed, and was horrified to find out she could not replace her LS with another one similarly equipped. Off to Jaguar or BMW she will go: "Zephyr is too boring looking...." My other friend, bought an LS for his 75 year old mother...which she dutifully drove until quality problems crept in becoming annoying---not enough to keep the car off the road, but niggling problems which the dealership went out of their to fix more than once---off the Benz dealership that car went.

Only 340 plus days remain for Wixom, and the fate of Lincoln. Where will it roll when they can't capture up-market customers who have long bought and own the brand? What reaction will Bill Ford have if Carlos Ghosn is successful in his back-handed take-over of GM's Board? What will they do with Lincoln then? Even Toyota is trying to checkmate Mr. Ghosn, according to Business Week, by offering an 'Alliance' with GM!!! How will Bill Ford resist entreaties from Ghosn if his bid for GM fails? If anything, such a successful tie-up in the marketplace controlling 25% or more of global production should SHOCK Ford Motor into taking Lincoln and making the brand its iconographic forward thinking, company talismen---using it as a beacon for all of Ford Motor.

And Ford Motor must act to counter growing skeptism, investor queasiness with Ford Motor stock at $6.22, its dividend cut, and capture the imagination of the public---whetting their appetites so that they are willing to wait for future product, than be captured by competitors first. The bold moves have to start happening now: commenting on the future of Lincoln is the best place to start---followed by Mercury. With Camaro and Challenger soon to hit the tarmac, a Cougar should prance infront of them---beating GM and DCX to the marketplace.

DouglasR

(Sources: WSJ, Automotive News, Business Week, Automobile Magazine August 2006)

douglasr · July 2006

50 Years ago today, Dick Teague working under Bill Schmidt at East Grand Boulevard finished the final clay models for the 1957 Packard's, based from the Predictor Show Car. James J. Nance loved the Predictor, and had given impetus for the Balboa, and the Grey Wolf Showcars that had preceeeded this last full scale Detroit Designed Packard. Packard had built several cars from the show cars...and was hoping Predictor would save the company---having Ghia build the car for $70,000 in 90 days---appearing on the February 1956 issue of Car Life, only four months before the end of Packard production June 15, 1956 at East Grand. "While futuristic in the sense that it features many advanced styling and engineering innovations, the Packard Predictor is not a dream car..." Bill Schmidt commented during its unveiling at the Chicago Auto Show in 1956. Packard sales collapsed during the spring of 1956 killing any hope for Packard and Predictor.

Mr. Horbury may well be in the same position as Dick Teague and Bill Schmidt were at Packard that fateful year. With Mr. Horbury squeezing out designs based on a very limited budget and package requirements from other platforms. Lincoln might be "seeing what sticks" because the designers are desperate to hit a niche receptive to the public that they can market to the higher eschelons at the company to save Lincoln: the designers pushing from below to prevent disaster from overtaking Lincoln. This would explain the variation in design themes being test marketed around the country, and given the remarks of HJ, what they are trying to do. One imagines that for Lincoln now---with no 2008 tooling in place for Town Car---that McNamara Moment has come back to the fore: "I'll cancel it...you've got one more chance." McNamara told a stunned George Walker and Eugene Bordinat in June 1958. Consequently designers worked around the clock in July 1958 to enlarge the T-Bird into a Lincoln Continental.

This is what must be the truth for the Mark S---Horbury, Thomas, and their sculpturers and modellers working round the clock between Irvine, California, Dearborn, and London, to take a future Volvo/Ford 500 platform and make it into a viable Lincoln representing a freshened design. As much as we might not like the idea, Mr. Horbury is having a "Dick Teague" Moment---not unlike Mr. Teague working in a closed factory building trying to finish the 1957 prototype Detroit-Packard called "Black Bess". The designers could be sequestered in an almost empty corner of Wixom doing the same---or certainly so come next June.

As much as "we" may or may not like Mark S, given the potential alliance of GM-Nissan-Renault, Lincoln may have to take anything that it can get from the Ford Motor Finance Committee to preserve the name. Given Moody's further cut of Ford Motor stock/bonds to junque status this last week, its potential $2Bn loss for Q2 means that Ford Motor's $25Bn cash pile will lose a quarter of its value by the end of the year...half of which they will need for operational expenses. It may very well be that Lincoln---ALL of Lincoln---is getting but a mere $1.5Bn for all of its product lines for development this year. If true, that means they can only develop one and only one car for 2008-9.

When the lites go out at Wixom, like Dick Teague at East Grand Boulevard in the summer of '56, Mr. Horbury and his designers might be the only ones left at "Lincoln" next summer of '07!

DouglasR

(Sources: Car Design News; Hemmings Classic Car May 2006; Packard 1942-1962, ibid, Dawes; Automobile Quarterly Day by Day)

scootertrash · July 2006

The 1961 Continental was an instant classic and was a complete breath of fresh air- unlike anything else.

I was in the toy car aisle at Target- There are early 60's Continental toys from How Wheels and about 3 other brands-- Strangely, I didn't see any toy Zephyrs. But there were about 20 versions of the Chrysler 300.

The timid, focus group designed MKS is just sad. Who can say that America needs a car that looks as if a 5 year old Aurora, a Passat, Infiniti and a Buick La Crosse were put in a blender and then run through a strainer.

It's a recipe for disaster and typical of what happens at any bloated company with no leadership - When committees, bureaucracies and focus groups have more control than your visionaries, your fate is sealed.

exalteddragon1 · July 2006

Ford acts to rev up stalled turnaround

Bryce G. Hoffman / The Detroit News

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Ford Motor Co.

Ford's generous warranty could boost sales and lift resale values, some analysts say. See full image
Warranties at a glance
While some warranties may vary within a company, here's a quick look at what warranties automakers are offering.
DaimlerChrysler AG
Drivetrain: 3 years/36,000 miles
Basic: 3 years/36,000 miles
Roadside service: 3 years/36,000 miles
Ford Motor Co.
Drivetrain: From 5 years/60,000 miles to 6 years/70,000 miles
Basic: 3 years/36,000 miles to 4 years/50,000 miles
Roadside service: Up to 6 years/70,000 miles
General Motors Corp.
Drivetrain: From 3 years/36,000 miles to 5 years/60,000 miles
Basic: 3 years/36,000 miles to 4 years/50,000 miles
Roadside service: Up to 4 years/50,000 miles
Honda Motor Co.
Drivetrain: 5 years/60,000 miles
Basic: 3 years/36,000 miles
Roadside service: Not offered
Nissan Motor Co.
Drivetrain: 5 years/60,000 miles
Basic: 3 years/36,000 miles
Roadside service: 3 years/36,000 miles
Toyota Motor Corp.
Drivetrain: 5 years/60,000 miles
Basic: 3 years/36,000 miles
Roadside service: Not offered
Source: Edmunds.com

Ford is increasing the warranty on all of its 2007 Ford and Mercury vehicles to five years or 60,000 miles. In addition, Ford will offer free roadside assistance for the entire warranty period. How important are these benefits when you're shopping for a car?
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Ford Motor Co., struggling to gain traction with its North American turnaround effort, announced a series of moves Thursday aimed at cutting costs and boosting sales.

Ford's Board of Directors voted to cut the company's quarterly dividend in half, from 10 cents to 5 cents a share, beginning in the third quarter. The dividend is now at its lowest point since Ford eliminated payments altogether in 1982 and mirrors a 50 percent dividend reduction at General Motors Corp. in February.

Ford's directors also cut their own $200,000-a-year compensation by half. Chairman and CEO Bill Ford Jr. said the moves were necessary to maintain strong liquidity.

Also Thursday, Ford announced that it is extending the standard powertrain warranty on all Ford and Mercury vehicles from three years or 36,000 miles to five years or 60,000 miles. Lincoln's four-year or 50,000-mile standard powertrain warranty is being extended to six years or 70,000 miles. In addition, Ford said it will offer free roadside assistance for the entire warranty period and allow customers to transfer their warranties if they sell their car or truck before the warranty expires.

That makes Ford's warranty package the most generous of any full-line automaker -- a fact it hopes will bring more customers into Ford dealerships, which have seen retail sales drop 9 percent so far this year.

"The headwinds we faced at the beginning of 2006 have only become stronger, as consistently higher gasoline prices in the U.S. have caused consumer purchase preferences to shift away from SUVs and large trucks to smaller cars and crossover vehicles," Bill Ford said in a statement issued after Thursday's board meeting. "While this shift plays positively to our new vehicle offerings, we must still get our costs in line in response to segment adjustments and higher commodity prices that are affecting the company."

But Wall Street said the decision to cut dividends signals bad news ahead as Ford prepares to release its second-quarter financial results next week.

"This certainly suggests that second-quarter earnings are going to be uglier than expected," said Bradley Rubin, vice president of credit research at BNP Paribas in New York. "People are finally realizing at Ford that this turnaround is a little more difficult than they anticipated."

Ford shares closed down 32 cents Thursday to $6.56, a 4.6 percent decline.

"The dividend cut telegraphs the board's mounting concern about the company's performance," said John Casesa of New York's Casesa Shapiro Group LLC. "It's a very pessimistic signal."

The dividend cut is expected to save Ford about $375 million annually.

"Strong liquidity is an important enabler of our ongoing turnaround efforts and this action will make an important contribution," Bill Ford said.

But credit analysts said the move will not change the company's balance sheet enough to boost Ford's weak credit ratings, which have already fallen into junk-bond territory.

"The cash savings are relatively marginal," said Robert Schulz, who follows the company for Standard & Poor's in New York.

Craig Hutson, an analyst with Gimme Credit, said he expects Ford's ratings to sink even deeper.

"It is a sign that the company is acting to shore up its liquidity amid greater headwinds in the industry than it originally anticipated," he said. "A dividend cut is never good news."

But Ford's decision to extend warranties may be good news, at least for consumers.

The five-year or 60,000-mile powertrain warranty being offered on Ford and Mercury cars and trucks is substantially better than the three-year or 36,000-mile warranty offered on all of DaimlerChrysler AG's domestic nameplates and most of General Motors Corp.'s brands. More importantly, it matches the warranties offered by Ford's leading Japanese rivals: Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co., neither of which includes roadside assistance as part of their standard packages.

"Ford is setting its own path," said Cisco Codina, head of North American marketing, sales and service for Ford. "All of this is part of our strategy to become America's car company."

The new warranties, which are effective today, will be applied retroactively to customers who have already purchased 2007 cars and trucks. Moreover, the company said it will offer extended warranties to customers who buy 2006 models. The new warranties apply to all Ford, Mercury and Lincoln vehicles, except for those like Ford's diesel pickups and hybrid SUVs that already featured more attractive terms.

"It definitely gives consumers another reason to look at Ford," said Mike Jackson, an analyst with CSM Worldwide in Farmington Hills.

Boosting warranties addresses one of Ford's biggest product problems -- the resale value of its vehicles. However, the move could increase the company's warranty costs substantially.

Ford's second quarter warranty data shows that 2006 model year per-unit warranty costs are 24 percent less than those for 2005 model vehicles.

"I'm glad that we're leading instead of following," said Kenny Shreve, owner of Kenny Shreve Ford Mercury in McLeansboro, Ill.

"I feel better about Ford today than I have in years."

nvbanker · July 2006

"Leaders don't ask what people want, They tell them."

I agree, scooter (don't faint). Consensus is the absence of leadership. (As one of those Greek guys said...).

But, OAT, the Town Car is cancelled, for a good business reason. The DOT requires new standards for where fuel tanks are located - and the money required to refit the Town Car to accomodate the new regulation is substantial - Ford decided to use that money to develop another car rather than fix the aging Town Car. What about the other Panther Cars? Good question - they will die soon as well, but not as quickly as their plant isn't being closed (Wixom). They will go away however, when their time is up. And that's why.

I am more and more concerned about the future of Ford, let alone Lincoln, which IMO, is a heartbeat away from assuming room temperature.

douglasr · July 2006

The Q2 Results have tipped the hand at the Blue Oval.

Ford Motor lost $162Mn for Q2 in 2006, with Ford Motor Credit offsetting the $806Mn loss in North America. Average selling price per vehicle was $22,781, representing a $955 per vehicle loss on 834,000 vehicles sold. This is diametrically opposed to their stunning profits in the tiny South American market, where the average selling price per vehicle was $15,110 and Ford made a profit of $1,055 per vehicle representing a $95Mn profit on 90,000 vehicles sold. Europe showed some signs of improvement under Richard Parry Jones, making a $228 per vehicle profit on 459,000 sales with an average selling price of $16,122 per car. PAG, however, lost another $162Mn, a stunning $835 per vehicle loss despite an average selling price of $40,625.

Ford Motor's market share is now down to 16.7% with PAG making up another 1.1% share, leaving Ford Motor at the midst of the summer with 17.8% of the U.S. Market. It's 1927 all over again! Ford-Europe continues to hold at 10.2% where PAG holds twice the market share at 2.2%. Outside the U.S. Ford Motor made a $238Mn profit, including Mazda.

At the current rate, North American Operations will have lost a stunning $3.188Bn for 2006, or roughly $3,382 all toll per vehicle on sales on 3.38Mn---if the trend continues. The fall season, of course, more robust than the spring and summer, should skewer the results. Yet even Ford Motor admits it will not make a profit in North America in 2006. More than one third of that cost represents health-care and jobs-bank reallocations.

While one admits that Ford is being blunt about its projected losses, Ford still sits on a cash reserve of $23.6Bn with $42Bn in Revenues for the quarter, with a company wide selling price of $24,249 per vehicle, and a loss of less than $75 per vehicle sold---the "total" posted after tax corporate loss of $162Mn for the quarter. Ford Financing made $372 for every car sold offsetting deeper losses. For every dollar Ford Motor lost during Q2 selling a vehicle, it made back $5 loaning you the money to buy it.

The best face one can place upon it, is that as a whole Ford Motor is approaching a "break-even" point for Q3/Q4 if sales improve. Yet the fact that Ford loses so much money per vehicle within our own nation puts further impetus for Ford to fix its product lines, starting with Lincoln---which explains how Zephyr ended up in Mexico. Therein we see the battle being fought between Fields, Horbury, and the Ford Motor Finance Committee and Mr. Ford. If NVB is correct, and gas tank regulations killed the Town Car in America...but not its sister ships in Canada, then it makes sense to move production until the new car is ready, to St. Thomas. It would buy Lincoln the needed two more years before its replacement is ready. "Why would they want to kill the Town Car..." a wealthy friend of mine asked me after hearing about it on 'Click & Clack'! But Ford through CAW President Buzz Hargrove, has already put an end to that reality.

Now...a plausible explaination exists why Ford has been tardy is doing something about its top-range Lincoln---but Ford knew before-hand about it, and planning should have begun in 2003 for the 2008 Town Car. The arguments to and fro about Lincoln must have been heated ones. Given $3.50-$4 a gallon for gas in America, and more in Europe*, it is no wonder that Ford UK CEO Richard Parry-Jones increased Ford Motor's investments in fuel economy engineering to $1.8Bn in Europe, while scapping some existing programs. You can bet Mr. Fields has done the same, creating a greater problem for future Lincolns.

Hopefully Ford Motor will NOT form an 'alliance' with Toyota should GM mistakenly proceed with Nissan-Renault. More likely is that Mr. Ford will court Mr. Ghosn again, should Mr. Kerkorian's gambit to improve his Estate Value fail. At the end of the day, Lincoln should become the talismen for Ford Motor to indicate where it wants to go as a company, both in terms of engineering, and style, but also answering the looming economic and fuel crisis at hand. PAG is not making money, and healthy demand still exist for Town Car. As such, Mr. Fields, and certainly Mr. Ford must indicate where they will take Lincoln before Wixom closes, some 330 days from now. Lincoln must become the lone leader within Ford, for as Lincoln goes, so goes the nation.

DouglasR

*Europeans pay about two to three times more than we do for a comparable 'gallon' of gas, VAT and 20% taxation included. It regularly cost me the equivalent of $105 to fill my tank when I drove in Europe, and I got "used" to it after a while---with gas being priced by litres! The average European spent about $40 to fill their tank then, and now about $65-70---the relative price roughly the same we now pay. Our 'tanks' are often two to three times larger. As a European friend then pointed out to me: "For me, our gas is cheaper, we drive farther than you do on one tank of gas...you fill up twice or more to my one tank!"---responding to my tart remark: "Yes, but we still have cheap gas, at a $1.25" I didn't add, that I was not shoe-horned into a smaller car.

(Source: Ford Motor Company)

displacedtexan · July 2006

Ford Motor lost $162Mn for Q2 in 2006, with Ford Motor Credit offsetting the $806Mn loss in North America. Average selling price per vehicle was $22,781, representing a $955 per vehicle loss on 834,000 vehicles sold.... At the current rate, North American Operations will have lost a stunning $3.188Bn for 2006, or roughly $3,382 all toll per vehicle on sales on 3.38Mn---if the trend continues.

How much of this is attributable to one-time (hopefully) restructuring costs, buyouts, etc? I'd like to see how FoMoCo is doing factoring out extraordinary accounting charges. To me the important thing is will they be able to turn a profit based on operating costs.

displacedtexan · July 2006

I may have found part of the answer to my question in the Detroit News Online, here:

Ford Will Speed Up Restructuring After 2Q Loss

scootertrash · July 2006

Here's an intersting story about the car biz, it used Lincoln in a few examples:
Detroit Ignores it's Dealers

nippononly · July 2006

Man, that's a heavy article! Should I feel guilty if I try to negotiate my next purchase?

Of course, Chevy and Ford's dealer networks are 3 and 4 times as large as those of Toyota and Honda, and ToyHon do just fine. Maybe it is time to trim a little of the fat.

What I really don't get is why ANYONE would want a Lincoln-Mercury franchise today. No product, no brand awareness, no advertising, and after all that you get squeezed by the manufacturer for profits, and possibly forced to accept into your inventory cars you know you can't sell or don't want!

douglasr · July 2006

William C. Ford Jr. is faced with shrinking his company to fit the collapsed market share he now holds, less than 18%...had he hung on to the traditional market share held by Ford Motor before he arrived, Ford Motor Company would now be the #1 U.S. Manufacturer again, having surpassed GM's 24.1% share---thereby making good use of the Nasser acquisitions.

Now the time is ripe for bold action. Helmut Panke, sadly, must take mandatory retirement the very next day after his 60th birthday on September 1. Bill Ford needs his experience...having guided a masterful expansion of BMW AG during his tennure, while maintaining much of their profit per vehicle. Mr. Ford should hire him immediately---lest he go to GM or even DaimlerChrysler. PAG Group has fallen behind in its attempts to become profitable this year, and may well post a loss---having thereby put a cloud over Mr. Fields former division. Mr. Panke's experience in the industry should not be lost---he has a good five years ahead of him before he really needs to retire.

The plus side is that Mr. Ford's move would be seen both on the 'street' as a shrewd and necessary move considering that domestic brands no longer hold the majority share of the market (June results with 53.7% of the market going to 'foreign' labels), and bolster Ford's stock position. Mr. Panke could well advise Ford Motor to 'fix' their median marques and middle position, and step-up their efforts to improve their car lines. No one doubts Ford's ability to make trucks and SUV's, yet having the advice of a BMW man might well make consumers think about considering future Ford's, and get them into the showrooms. Certainly, after having successfully revitalised Rolls-Royce and vanquishing Maybach, Mr. Panke knows a thing or two about luxury cars: especially since BMW outsells Mercedes in America and Germany.

The down-side is that bringing in 'an outsider' would make his job a difficult one without the full faith and confidence of the Ford Family. Mr. Fields could keep his job, but he would have to report to Mr. Panke and defer to him. The last BMW executive to serve at Ford, Wolfgang Reitzle rubbed the Ford Family the wrong way, and he was shunted aside, and later resigned. Mr. Panke would have to overcome the animus thus created by the departure of Reitzle. Many would critisize Ford for bringing in a German executive to run the company, or portions of it: many would say that Ford had "lost the battle" and was merely surrendering to the inevitability of foreign market domination. (But then we made able use of Mr. Werner von Braun to get to the Moon, so why not Mr. Panke to vanquish Lexus and Cadillac?) Many would also praise him for recognising the very same reality.

At the end of the day the plusses would outwiegh the negative reaction. "Dr. Z's" commercials making it that much easier for Ford to consider such a move: Ford must remain true to its products, since it is the sum total of the team creating them that matters. After-all, it was Chris Bangle, the American designer, that has brought BMW away from, in Mr. Panke's words, "making three types of cars, same saugage, different length",---and successfully vanquishing its competition.

Mr. Panke could do the same for Ford Motor, and at the end of the day, perhaps save Lincoln from a seemingly inevitable downscaling and demise in the market-place. Who would doubt that if Lincoln were guided by a BMW man, that many people would consider the brand...? Nor does not automatically mean that Lincoln would surrender their traditional base---just add a dash of zest to the line. Mr. Panke in the least, would want to take Lincoln and Jaguar and continue to 'go after' his longtime rival Mercedes-Benz---not to mention those other brands.

DouglasR

(Sources: BMW AG, Automtove News, WSJ)

scott1256 · July 2006

That is exactly the kind of move Lincoln needs to make.

Using styling cues from the 61-67 would not be out of line: IMO the longer wheelbase 65-67 models looke a little nicer.

And don't forget a 4-door convertible! These were the personal cars of of JFK, LBJ and many others among the rich and famous.

LBJ even drove his Lincoln 4 door convertible around his Texas ranch.

douglasr · July 2006

Yes, a remake of the '61 would hit a nerve with the public. Lincoln has tried that twice in the last several years: both with the Four-door show car done under the aegis of Wolfgang Reitzle, and also the Mark X convertible based from the Thunderbird that was shown two years ago. And then there is the Mark IX Show Car...all three of which boasted '61 styling cues. None were built, or approved for production. The most Lincoln received from those show cars was a revamped dash-board in cars and trucks.

Therein lies the problem: Mr. Horbury is looking for an entirely new design voice or look for Lincoln---he wants to cut his own cloth in steel for Lincoln---ergo the Mark S. Mr. Fields clearly does not understand Lincoln, but he is more concerned about productivity and capacity utilisation than anything else. It is all too obvious that any Lincoln evocative of the 1960's designs would sell well...just look at 300 for an example.

Ford Motor is spending $5.3Mn per day on operations and new products. $1.6Bn in Q2 for new cars, $7Bn this year alone. Yet there is no doubt that Ford's ship is running in rough shoals, even Bill Ford said last week that he would "consider a negotiation or alliance" with another manufacturer, much like what GM is now doing with Nissan-Renault. Lincoln is left out in the cold. A lengthened Ford 500 is about the most we can now expect from Mr. Horbury as Ford Motor revamps its 'Way Forward' plan within the next 60 days. Ford Motor is effectively shrinking itself to fit its now reduced market share: precisely what James J. Nance did at Packard in 1954.

Unless there remains a surprise behind the curtain, when that last Town Car rolls out of Wixom, it will be a sad day for Lincoln, and for America. A revived '1961' style Lincoln should have been introduced five years ago: precisely the plan MR. Reitzle had proposed, and it was cheap at the price: $1.6Bn...as Lincoln goes so goes the nation.

DouglasR.

(Sources: Ford Motor Company, WSJ, FT)

scott1256 · July 2006

as Lincoln goes so goes the nation

Maybe 'as goes Lincoln, so goes Ford'

It won't affect the nation. Luxury car sales of other brands have grown fast over the last decade or so.

When a product line disappears its space is quickly filled by competitors.

Packard faded away but there were still lots of luxury cars to choose from. It will be the same if Lincoln is left out to die.

scootertrash · July 2006

nvbanker · July 2006

They should build it. I'd probably buy it. An upscale S-80 sounds excellent to me. Why shouldn't Lincoln come up with a new "look". It worked for Cadillac.

[Deleted User] · July 2006

It's MKS, not MarkS.

A new look is a fine idea. However, one that is so derivative of the premium Japanese stuff out there may not be the best "new" way to go. Both Cadillac and Chrysler created polarizing styles that were not reminiscent of Acura/Lexus/Infinity/VW Passat/BMW 5 Series, etc. Lincoln should look like an American car. How do you define that? I don't know. You know it when you see it.

The Buick Lucerne is an example of the approach Lincoln apparently intends to take. It is modern, safe, attractive enough, and somewhat derivative. It hasn't created any splash in the market, like Chrysler and Cadillac did. Love it or hate it seems to generate more sales than pretty anonymity.

The Japanese can toy with less exciting looks because the reputations of their premium brands (reliability, stellar re-sale, and high level of toys and gizmos). Lincoln unfortunately has low residual values, regardless of how reliability and quality have improved.

douglasr · July 2006

...why worry whether or not the brand survives? The market will indeed fill the void. People will shift increasingly to other cars if they perceive Lincoln to be a dying brand---because no one wants to be the guy driving the '60 Edsel on his block.

The net result will be that all but Cadillac will remain of our once dominant luxury marques---Pierce-Arrow, Packard, Deusenberg, Marmon, among others have all fallen by the wayside. The American auto industry will be marginalised...and a larger proportion of 'foreign' labels will control the market. The decisions about where, how, and how many people are employed within the industry in this country will not be made in America. If we are weak within our own nation it will adversely affect sales overseas---where profits are strongest at the current time. By marginalising brands like Lincoln, eventually they will marginalise and limit their ability to respond to the market without creating wholly new brands---further weakening their position.

One in ten jobs in America are tied to the auto industry, one in seven in Germany, one in six in Great Britain. Unless new industries rise to take their place in terms of prominance, the loss of leadership and market position by American firms will have long term, perhaps serious, consequences for our economy, not the least of which is our ability to respond to a national emergency requiring the use of all our economic might. If long term ownership and manufacturing shifts outside America into foreign hands, even within our own nation, capital will flow out of America rather than into it; our ability to maintain the dollar as the reserve currency of the world will be adversely affected, along with our living standard. We will always fight for our ideals, but are we willing to defend our economic position?

The sky hasn't fallen yet, but Ford Motor without Lincoln, a marginalised Lincoln, will be hard-pressed even to regain the share it has lost in the last six years since Mr. Ford assumed the Chairmanship of the company. "What-me-worry?" will take on a new meaning... Mr. Ford already said that he would consider "negotiation" with another firm in the same manner as Nissan Renault (July 22-06). Sergio Marchione of Fiat has not ruled that out either, so a Ford-Fiat tie-up might happen. In both cases, GM and Ford, public confidence in both firms will be shaken, and increase the market position of the competitors they never thought could challenge them. American directed dominance of the auto market will wane---leaving fewer choices for the consumer. ...Pontiac's might become rebodied Nissan's, and rather than a Volvo, Lincoln's might become a rebodied Alfa-Romeo!

...and some might say that GM and Ford have had their day, that by merging or forming an alliance with foreign firms rather than purchase them to survive, that the foreign firms have won the day. Some will say that DaimlerChrysler sets the pattern for the future of auto manufacturing in this country: foreign investment and merger revitalising tried and true American (for that matter other foreign brands) If Daimler can do it for Chrysler, and BMW can do it for Rolls-Royce, VWAG for Bentley, then why can't both GM and specifically Ford do it within their own family?

DouglasR

(Sources: Detroit Free Press; Edmunds Online)

nippononly · July 2006

"It's MKS, not MarkS."

Actually, I have now seen several magazine articles that made a point of saying it is Mark S, not MKS. Clearly, there is confusion over this naming structure. I hate models named with letters, and I can't figure out why the carmakers think it is so glorious.

But having models people are not even sure of the name of is not a good way for Lincoln to find its way into the future.

scootertrash · July 2006

They gave up on their re-education plan and have abandoned the effort to instruct us how to pronounce the name to their liking.
It's MKS. Not Mark S

Or, as I prefer, "Mc-S" as in McNuggets or McMuffin.

nvbanker · July 2006

"The Buick Lucerne is an example of the approach Lincoln apparently intends to take."

For the record, MarkS, MKS, or McS, I HATE the Lucerne, and if that's the only idea Lincoln has, I'm staying with Lexus.

With Lexus, I can get all the boring, uninspiring styling inside and outside that I need, and a great car too. :confuse:

douglasr · July 2006

....48 years ago today, July 27, 1958 the final touches were being put on the full scale clay models for the '61 Lincoln...McNamara arriving unanounced to see the final work before the presentation...and what he saw gave him the confidence to bring HF II into the design studio with George Walker...telling him that the Engle Clay had to become the new Lincoln or they might as well discontinue the car.

If Lincoln's fate it to be hitched to the Ford 500 for now, built in Chicago, with perhaps a reprieve for Town Car in St. Thomas...then the ball truly is in Mr. Horbury's hands. If there is to be a viable Lincoln to match Cadillac---with Cadillac revamping its ad campaign to capture even more new buyers---then what-ever-he-can-do on the Volvo chassis and the Ford chassis will have to carry the flag. Until such time as Ford Motor ends its doll-drums and returned to a healthy cash flow allowing expansion of Lincoln. GM posted a $450 per car profit for the quarter after special items---buying out workers---so it is possible for Ford to reach the same goal if GM can.

And it is entirely possible with Fiat returning to America with Alfa-Romeo that a Ford-Fiat alliance may be in the offing. Sergio Marchione, CEO of Fiat was told that "he was smoking something illegal" when he announced he would bring Fiat back to profitability and reach a 4% return. Well...he's nearly done that. So if beleaugered Fiat can make it back into the black and be brave enough to consider coming back to America---then so too can Mr. Horbury bring back Lincoln despite Mr. Fields desire to keep Lincoln on the lower end of the scale.

I just hope the back-room-boys at Dearborn and the studios at Irvine, and the far side of the Thames in London are working furiously to save Lincoln.

DouglasR

(Sources: Conversations with Ford designer Jim Quinlin, 1973, Detroit; FT, WSJ)

scootertrash · July 2006

What a brave move- Imagine giving the green light to the clean 61 Continental when the showrooms were filled with the over-the-top 1959 models. They knew fins had run their course.

Doug- Despite the sadly ludicrous "Bold Moves" campaign, have you seen a single shred of evidence that anyone at Ford has the vision or cojones to pull such a move today?
I'd love to hear your take on Lincoln's present and future, not the Eisenhower-era past.

euphonium · July 2006

Obviously, the gentleman is an historian, not a profit.

Where Is Ford taking the Lincoln Motor Company?

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