Hybrids the Real Payback

plekto · May 2008

Except that "payback" doesn't include the battery replacement. No battery on the planet will last 24 years of daily use.

gagrice · May 2008

I know that you like diesels. If/when they become more available are you planning on applying this same payback rational.

I do several things when buying a vehicle. First I NEVER pay over invoice. Just not smart in my book. I don't think the price of diesel would be a factor I would look at. I know in the type vehicles I would consider they will get close to double the gas version. I don't foresee diesel ever be twice the price of UG. When and if any MFG brings something in diesel I like I will drive it and go to where ever in the country it is selling below invoice. Or I will wait.

tpe · May 2008

Except that "payback" doesn't include the battery replacement

That's true but I don't think a replacement battery for the Prius costs $6k as some have posted. Another factor that I don't see mentioned much is resale value. If I pay $3k more for a hybrid, trade it in 5 years later and receive $1k more than I would have with a non-hybrid at that point isn't the premium $2k? Also a hybrid buyer who only plans to keep his car this long doesn't have to concern himself with battery replacement.
.

kdhspyder · May 2008

That's rubbish for the Prius, though, since all of the incentives are long gone. That raises the payback to 7-8 years.

This is false but don't let lack of analysis get in the way of a good misconception.

Yourself like most, including Edmunds and the writer of the followup article misapply the comparison numbers. Edmunds is the one with the most fault because it has all the data at it's fingertips and it's the source of the 'original' article.

The whole concept of 'payback period' is faulty. It's a huge error in logic so all the conclusions that follow from it are faulty. Edmunds compounds the error by doing the math incorrectly and leaving out key factors. In essence it's a mess.

But the general media relies on Edmunds as 'the experts' so we'll see this mess regurgitated over and over for the next several weeks, different bylines and different headlines.

kdhspyder · May 2008

The real problem is that other than the hybrid system, the Prius is essentially a Corolla with different sheet metal on it.

You have this right in name only. The Prius is not like a Corolla sedan simply because it's a 5 door hatchback. But the Prius is like the Corolla Matrix which also is a 5 door hatchback. You cannot put a 43" flatscreen TV or 6 surfboards into any Corolla or Camry or Avalon or Malibu or Cobalt or Sebring or Accord or Civic. But you can put them in a Prius or a Matrix/Vibe.

The Matrix is the non-hybrid Prius. That's the one that you have to compare against for the comparo to be valid logically.

Compare it to a Corolla, which gets what - 35mpg highway - and it jumps to never breaking even, since you have to replace the batteries every decade or so for 5-6 thousand dollars, putting you behind the curve again for another 150-200K miles.

This is logically incorrect. You can't compare a 5 door hatch to a 4 door sedan anymore than you can compare a 4 door sedan to a bicycle. The bicycle always wins the fuel economy comparo.

Edmunds data is basing it off of what the same car would cost with a normal engine instead - ie - cost of Corolla engine stuffed into a Prius. This is bad math no matter how you look at it, since there's no such thing as a Prius with a Corolla engine in it.
(can't pay back anything based upon fictional vehicles

When you compare the two 5 door hatchbacks with similar equipment, Base Matrix to Prius Pckge #2 the difference is $3400 at present. Now you can begin to do the analysis. $20500 vs $23900.

How long do you want to do the comparison for? 3? 5? 7? 10? or 15 years? Pick any two.

kdhspyder · May 2008

Let's live in the real world.

What's the longest period you'd expect the general population to drive any standard vehicle? 10? 12? 15 yrs?

What's a vehicle worth at 12 or 15 yrs? I know what they're worth since I run into it every day. If it runs it's worth $500 and if it doesn't it's worth $200, with normal miles of course.

You can count on this: The hybrid batteries on all the hybrids on the road will last until the vehicle has depreciated to $500 or less. They will last the economic life of the vehicle. When a vehicle is 14 yrs old with 200,000 miles is it worthwhile to drop a $2500 transmission into it when it's only worth $500? Not in my book. Ditto the battery pack were it to fail. Reality.

gagrice · May 2008

The Matrix is the non-hybrid Prius. That's the one that you have to compare against for the comparo to be valid logically.

Ok the top of the line XR Matrix with auto trans sells here in San Diego for $17,103
The Touring stripped Prius sells for $23,902. I come up with a $6799 difference. So what would the payback be for the average small family? The payment alone will be about $135 per month more for the Prius.

kdhspyder · May 2008

Sorry that's the 2008 model...there are none left in the entire country.
The 2009 models have been out now for 3 months.

But the 2008 XR, while it was the top trim, didn't have all the same equipment as the Package #2 Prius. It lacked the following....
AW $410
BE $650
VS $645
AB $300
Z1 $299
When you add these to the base price of the XR you come to ~$20700..

Today the 2009 base model with the same equipment has a price of about $20500. The XR trim has been dropped in 2009. Essentially the Base replaced the XR with more standard equipment. It's now Base, S and XRS

gagrice · May 2008

When you add these to the base price of the XR you come to ~$20700

You always assume people need or want all that extra crap. My son in law bought the cheapest Yaris he could get for under $12k. He is getting 40 MPG on his commute. Sold his Yamaha that was lucky to get 35 MPG. They are moving to Indiana and he did not want to try and sell the cycle in snow country. So they could have spent twice as much and only gained about 5 MPG with the Prius. Plus paying a premium because people ALWAYS have a knee jerk reaction to high gas prices. I will stick with my premise that there is no way you can justify a Prius based on gas mileage.

plekto · May 2008

You do know that the Matrix is based upon the Corolla, right?

If you really want to get silly, compare the Vibe to the Prius. GM has financing and incentives at the end of the year that make it an easy 4-6K difference. Toyota design, GM incentives. This makes it a dubious prospect for the Prius in terms of actually saving money and environmental impact(those batteries are hugely damaging to produce).

Prius Outdoes Hummer in Environmental Damage
http://clubs.ccsu.edu/recorder/editorial/editorial_item.asp?NewsID=188

Dust to Dust Report.
http://cnwmr.com/nss-folder/automotiveenergy/

The Prius is an overpriced, half hearted attempt at feeling good and trying to look green. Compare this to, say, a CNG Civic. Now that's a true environmentally friendly vehicle. It gets 24/36, but since CNG costs 1/3 as much as gas currently...

I like #5 on that list - the Wrangler. It's better than a Yaris, mostly due to the low tech materials used in building it and the high lifespan. Who would have thought that a Wrangler would be nearly a quarter as damaging to the environment as a Prius?

larsb · May 2008

Plekto, you must be late to the game.

That bullcrap "Dust to Dust" report by Queen Spinella has been successfully debunked all over the web.

Google it...........your eyes will be opened..................

Cheers Amigos !!!!!

P.S. The CNG Civic is the cleanest combustion engine in a production car that the EPA has ever tested. It has limitations, however, which are unacceptable for a lot of people - a smallish range, hard-to-find CNG fuel stations, requirement to install a CNG fueling station at your house, etc. (that last one is not technically mandatory but makes your life a lot easier with that car.) The latest stats show a Prius payback is less than 4 years now.

plekto · May 2008

That study isn't about consumer costs, but the bigger picture of what it costs the planet. Yes, 2/3 of it is rubbish. The other 1/3 is good data, though, and even looking at that, it's clear that a many old-school low tech designs handily beat the newer hybrids.

Actually, in nearly every one of the consumer cost related charts, the Wrangler comes out about even. Total cost to own, repair, fuel, insure, produce, and get rid of.. It's stupidly low, as would be expected of a vehicle that's hardly changed over the last few decades. A Prius, being mostly new technology is at a severe disadvantage. Loads of electronics, toxic to produce batteries, plastics that create problems when they break down... it's a beautiful car. But it's not helping things.

Jeep Wrangler $25,375(price) 207,000(avg lifespan) 13,024(miles/yr) 15.89(#years)
Toyota Prius $23,142(price) 109,000(avg lifespan) 9,146(miles/year) 11.92(#years)
Toyota Corolla $15,873(price) 169,000(avg lifespan) 13,2429(miles/year) 12.76(#years)

Let's increase that to 13,042 a year. That's closer to realistic, IMO.
Toyota Prius 155,246 miles 13,024 miles/yr.

Fuel cost - lifetime:
Jeep Wrangler:14.97mpg 13,830.32 gallons (urk!)
Toyota Prius 40.12 mpg 5,158.31 gallons (adjusted to Wrangler's lifespan and mileage)
Toyota Corolla 30.00 7.014.31 gallons (again, adjusted)
The Prius isn't as efficient as most people think. The smart money is on the Corolla or Vibe because that's only 1900 gallons different over almost 16 years!. Even at $4 a gallon, that raises the Corolla's price to $23,473. That's why the actual payback compared to a Corolla is essentially never going to happen.(even not considering anything other than gas usage)

Lifetime cost for maintainence.
Jeep Wrangler $ 3,258 (15.89 years)
Toyota Prius $ 29,901 (15.89 years)
Toyota Corolla $ 4,756 (15.89 years)

This includes the battery pack(s) over the lifetime as well - it looks like at least one replacement of the battery pack near as I can tell. This is the cost to manufacture, buy, ship, and dispose of the consumables on the car. (think of this as similar to "Carbon Footprint" This is the problem with batteries in hybrids - the hidden costs add up.

Lifetime accident repair:
Jeep Wrangler $ 2,175.47
Toyota Prius $ 15,192.48 This assumes that the packs will get damaged in any significant side impact. And this isn't for the full 15.89 years.
Toyota Corolla $ 2,717.15 - it's an amazing car.
Anyone who has had a Prius get in an accident will tell you how easy it is to total one. A Wrangler, shoot - maybe the bumper fell off. Search the other car's back seat for it.

I chose the Wrangler as it's truly the anti-Prius in its approach, but many other cars handily beat both by a huge margin. Some are surprising, like several big GM boats and a few small trucks. The Tacoma, for instance, is silly frugal if you get manual and a 4 cylinder engine.

The Prius isn't the "green" car that Toyota wants us to think it is. Actually that title now goes to the new Smart Car, believe it or not. High MPG, designed to be the lowest environmental footprint car in the world(so far), and low cost to run, relatively speaking, over its lifetime. Yes, it's tiny. But it's a correct real step in the right direction.

But back to CNG:

CNG has an advantage in that it requires no batteries, no oil changes, and creates essentially no pollution - actually negative pollution if you live in a city with dirty air. In Los Angeles, for instance, a CNG vehicle will produce cleaner air from its tail pipe than the surrounding smog-laden muck.

It's superior in many ways to other fuels and that many cities are using it for their fleets and busses is especially telling.

larsb · May 2008

I don't agree with your "cherry-picking" of what data to believe and what data to discard from the Spinella farce report....

But, you seem convinced, and I'm not inclined to spend a lot of time arguing with you. I already debunked that report (as have many others) and I'm not going to repeat myself.....just not that into spending all the effort.......

No denying CNG is awesome in terms of cleanliness of exhaust. Maybe a CNG version of the SMART car is what we need !!!

plekto · May 2008

I think that the four areas that I pulled out of that mess are valid, though. It's perfectly acceptable to cherry-pick data apart and use the good parts to make another conclusion if the original analysis was rubbish.

1:Cost and lifespan. This is easy to verify - it seems valid enough. 12-16 years is a typical lifespan these days.

2:Fuel cost (I adjusted to the same lifespan to be a valid comparison, something they didn't do!) - again easy to verify. A bit over 40mpg seems realistic for a Prius and 30mpg for the Corolla does as well.(or at least within a reasonable margin of error in the sample size) The Wrangler. Yes, 14mpg. Heh.

3:Hidden costs to keep on the road. This is debatable, but it seems to be realistic given how mind-boggingly intensive producing electronics, batteries, and all of the other bits and pieces in a typical hybrid setup can get. Computers also cost many times their market cost in damage to the planet.

4:Repair costs are fairly easy to figure out. Hybrids cost a lot more to fix in an accident, no doubt about it. A CNG vehicle actually has LESS parts under the hood. I'm a big fan of CNG because of the simplicity and longevity.

Even MIT seemed to not have a real problem with those four areas.

Of course it changes the equation greatly. The Prius is somewhere near the middle of the pack, near as I can tell, along with the Wrangler and a lot of small SUVs and midsize sedans(and one of the Hummers). The Smaller cars like the Corolla and Focus are way superior. I'd like to see where the Smart comes in, especially if they make a CNG version. Also, that air car being developed in France.

kdhspyder · May 2008

AB=ABS brakes
BE=Side and curtain airbags
VS=Vehicle stability Control
Hardly crap I think especially if you have a family

AW=Alloy wheels
Z1 = floor mats..

OK but you can take them off the Prius also and the differential remains the same but either way you need to equalize the equipment in order to to a valid comparo. Otherwise why not compare a bicycle to a Mercedes?

kdhspyder · May 2008

Yes agreed about the Matrix that's why I noted it as a Corolla Matrix. And you are right the Vibe is a better choice because of GM's sales problems. No argument there.

But now the new Vibe and the current Prius are much closer together. Again about $3500 in price. Again when you compare equal equipment.

I can't believe that you really referenced this student opinion piece ( btw which he retracted ) in a small college newspaper. THIS is what you base your lifestyle opinions on? Are you serious? You are asking some sophomore or junior in college to do your thinking for you? Then there's the disproven trash from CNW Marketing. You do know that the writer of this study made up his number don't you? You do know that he won't let anyone look at his methodology right? You do know that he has this absolutely insane logic behind his analysis......this is priceless.....

If you buy a $25000 Malibu and spend $25000 in fuel energy costs over the lifetime of ownership you will have a bill in excess of $175,000 presented to you when you go to turn in your vehicle for recycling.

This goofy presentation has been disproven in so many places by so many people that I'm shocked that someone who's been on these boards as you have hasn't been paying attention to notice.

kdhspyder · May 2008

1. 12-16 yrs is a very valid lifespan for any vehicle these days. 13000 mpy is also a good value

2. You missed entirely, or intentionally ignored, what the real world values are on the Prius. You used 40.2 and not even a monkey can consistently get that low a fuel economy in a Prius. The EPA database and the GreenHybrid database are consistent with 90% of the other specific reports. 47-48 mpg day in and day out.

But just to use an arbitrary metric use the new EPA ratings.

3. Hidden costs. Not being involved in this field I wouldn't be surprised to find that you don't have a good handle on this number. These hybrids have among the lowest maintenance costs of any Toyota on the road. There is no maintenance needed on the hybrid system - ever. The base motive source is the rock solid 4c that's in millions of vehicles all over the world and the PSD 'tranny' is a lot simpler than a traditional vehicle. The stats are showing that the hybrids have less maintenance than the gassers. Granted this is on a limited sample of users thus far ( under 1 million here ) but still significant.

4) Repair costs in an accident are more expensive. But the insurance companies don't seem to be noticing much of anything. This is a key number for them which should be reflected in the premiums. Insurance companies are not noted for discounting rates for high-cost vehicles or drivers. The fact that the premiums for a Prius or TCH are the same or even less in some cases than a gasser shows that they don't see much significance to the 'high repair issue'. The insurance industry is the best source for this comparo, they must be the ones to pay to repair the vehicles, and they are the one to bear the losses if the premiums are priced too low.

But you've left out a whole slew of other factors, just as Edmunds did.
...cost of fuel
...resales at different expected 'turn-in' dates
...miles actually driven
...local tax incentives.

gagrice · May 2008

Well you can look at it from the Edmund's TCO on both the Matrix and the Prius and the Prius comes out a real big loser. At 58 cents per mile over 150,000 miles you will have spent $87,000. With the Matrix at 51 cents per mile you will spend $76,500. So if you really like the Prius it will cost you $10,500 more over the normal life of the two cars.

kdhspyder · May 2008

Again you, and they, are using faulty data. They are comparing different vehicles with different equipment. I plugged in the 2008 Prius and the 2008 Matrix and came up with a difference of 3 cents per mile between the two ( $.49 vs $.46 per mile ). However the original prices and equipment were for similar vehicles so the original data is faulty. They have no values for the 2009 Matrix yet.

The key issue that they continue to ignore in all their analyses is that they peg fuel at one price forever. We all know that's not happening.

Right now if you were to compare two vehicles of equal equipment and factor in the cost of fuel correctly the two vehicles will be nearly exactly the same over 5 yrs, the Prius will cost less over 7, 10 and 15 yrs due to the accumulated fuel savings at increasingly higher prices.

plekto · May 2008

1: 40-41mpg is a valid range, near as I can tell, especially considering how the systems work a bit less well as they age. My truck is rated at 24mpg but it now at 20 years old gets 18. These things happen.

Consumer reports got *35mpg* combined for their Prius, so 40-41mpg is a fine middle ground, IMO. One major site says 45 - another says 35. this data isn't a big deal, though, since fuel costs are a small part of the equation.

2:Yes, the insurance companies are greedy asses. But these basic cars often do cost a lot less to fix, because there's just so much less to go wrong. I know my dad pays less to fix his Buick than I do my 4Runner. Toyota has gotten quite pricey as of late.

3:Those hidden costs are different than maintainence. The number obviously considers the manufacture of the batteries main component at that Canadian facility and then their being shipped all over the world as part of that expense. Batteries are amazingly hard on the environment to produce. $20K per car in extra environmental damage because of the batteries actually seems quite small a figure to me. Yes, Toyota *says* they have recycling technology, but the initial cost to make them is enormous. NiMh batteries are just not friendly to the environment. There's a reason laptops and cellphones went to Li-Ion.

**quote**
Toyota buys about 1,000 tons of nickel from the facility each year, ships the nickel to Wales for refining, then to China, where it's manufactured into nickel foam, and then onto Toyota's battery plant in Japan.
***
Toyota seems to be eating this cost on each car as well - it can't be cheap to buy and ship all of those materials. I'd not be surprised if the batteries actually did cost a lot more than the $4500 Toyota says they will sell you one for as a replacement(of course that's with your old one taken as part of the deal)

My napkin math has the Prius batteries coming in at about double their listed cost to Toyota (8-10K) They are clearly selling them at their materials cost instead of what it costs them.

Minor points:

Fuel in the article was at $3 - I took that 1900 gallon difference and multiplied it by $4 to come up with my $23K adjusted cost for the Corolla. So I did factor in fuel cost.

Miles actually driven at 13K seems to be a consistent nationwide average. I upped the Prius to match the others because the estimate of 9K was far too low.

Resale values I didn't factor in, but I suspect they are close to each other. Kind of how a Honda and a Hyundai come out at about a wash since the Hyundai's initial price is so much lower.(actual dollar depreciation when selling seems to be close between the Matrix/Corolla/etc and the Prius.) I figured it wasn't a real factor, though, since the thing was already heavily in favor of the non-hybrid.

Tax incentives are essentially gone at this point for most of the U.S., and even then, it's a small amount for a couple of years. This also is a false bit of economy.
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/tax_hybrid.shtml

So sorry - no Prius for you! Unlike most of the keyboard jockeys here, I actually know this bit of data because I have been researching hybrid and alternative fuel vehicles for the last decade or more. Since we are talking about the Prius... That rebate is moot. Has been for over six months.

*quote*
Hybrids purchased or placed into service after December 31, 2005 may be eligible for a federal income tax credit of up to $3,400.

Credit amounts begin to phase out for a given manufacturer once it has sold over 60,000 eligible vehicles.
****
Toyota: as of Oct 1, 2007 - $0
Nissan - still at 100%
Honda - gone by Jan 1 2009 - 50% still available for the next 6 weeks, then 25%)
GM - still at 100%.
Ford - still at 100%

kdhspyder · May 2008

I'm sorry but there is so much wrong with this post that I can't think of where to begin...

At the start.
1) You have arbitrarily chosen a 40-41 mpg figure despite literally thousands of other reports to the contrary showing the real value is 47-48 mpg. You ignore the new EPA values entirely. CR's one testing value is far outweighed by the thousands reporting something else. Here's a hint ONE sample value does not carry an equal weight to thousands of others showing a different value. Maybe the ONE sample value is wrong. Cherry-picking data points? It's illogical, it's basically ignorant and it makes your entire follow-through fallacious.

That's it in a nut shell.

BUT....... you compound this goofiness with trying to justify one of the dumbest presentations in modern times.. the CNW trash. I hope that if you're employed that you don't do this on a regular basis.

[quote]
3:Those hidden costs are different than maintainence. The number obviously considers the manufacture of the batteries main component at that Canadian facility and then their being shipped all over the world as part of that expense. Batteries are amazingly hard on the environment to produce. $20K per car in extra environmental damage because of the batteries actually seems quite small a figure to me. Yes, Toyota *says* they have recycling technology, but the initial cost to make them is enormous. NiMh batteries are just not friendly to the environment. There's a reason laptops and cellphones went to Li-Ion.
**quote**
Toyota buys about 1,000 tons of nickel from the facility each year, ships the nickel to Wales for refining, then to China, where it's manufactured into nickel foam, and then onto Toyota's battery plant in Japan.
***
Toyota seems to be eating this cost on each car as well - it can't be cheap to buy and ship all of those materials. I'd not be surprised if the batteries actually did cost a lot more than the $4500 Toyota says they will sell you one for as a replacement(of course that's with your old one taken as part of the deal)

My napkin math has the Prius batteries coming in at about double their listed cost to Toyota (8-10K) They are clearly selling them at their materials cost instead of what it costs them.
[unquote]

The underlined statement is just false. You seem to be prone to making up stuff to suit your purposes. In fact NiMH batteries are considered 'green technology'. They are the least intrusive of all the batteries; i.e. the least harmful on the environment. Try Cobasys, an American company, for starters if you want to learn more. The last statement about Li-Ions replacing NiMH is just dumb....more made up stuff.

The rest of your suppositions are supported by no facts just your own personal prejudices. They aren't worth discussing.

Minor points:
Cost of fuel: The article specifies $3.61/gal as the current avg.
..what if you're a 'trader' and exchange every 3-4 yrs..Cost?
..what if you're a 'keeper' and run the vehicles into the ground in 12-14 yrs? Cost?
..where do you think the price of fuel is going? Up? Down? Level forever?
Annual miles: 13000. Agreed
Tax credits were gone on Sept 30th 2007. Agreed.

Resale values I didn't factor in, but I suspect they are close to each other IOW, you don't know and you're just guessing. This speaks volumes about your methodology... it's seat-of-the-pants ... at best. YOU ARE ON AN AUTOMOTIVE SITE. Here they have pretty accurate numbers here. It doesn't take that much effort to do the job right.

What if you are a trader exchanging every 3-4 yrs? What if you are a keeper for 12-14 yrs?

So I will do one for you from scratch... next post.

kdhspyder · May 2008

This is simple actually if the right tools are used. A spreadsheet is good but pencil works fine too.

Assumptions:
Two 4c 5-door hatchbacks from Toyota
2008 Prius package #2 priced at $24000
2009 Matrix base with Stability Ctl priced at $20500

Miles driven:
case 1..13000 mpy
case 2.. 20000 mpy

Length of ownership:
Case A .. 4 yrs
Case B .. 10 yrs

Resale values ( from Edmunds )
Case A 4 yrs .. 50% of MSRP
Case B 10 yrs = $1000 flat.

Cost of fuel: ( $.50 increase per gallon per year )
2008 .. $3.25
2010 .. $4.25
2012 .. $5.25 ---> the 4 yr average is $4.25 / gal
2014 .. $6.25
2016 .. $7.25
2018 .. $8.25 ---> the 10 yr average is $5.75 / gal

Fuel economy figures: 2008 / 09 EPA values
Prius 46 mpg Combined
Matrix 27 mpg Combined

The equation: Cost of purchase and fuel usage
( MSRP - Resale= Net Veh Cost ) + ( Ann Miles * Length of ownership = Tot Mi Driven ) * ( Avg cost of fuel ) / ( Avg Fuel Economy )

Case 1A: 4 yrs @ 13000 mpy
Prius ( $24000-$12000 ) + ( 13000 * 4 * 4.25 ) / 46 = $12000 + 4805 = $16,805
Matrix ( $20500-$10250 ) + ( 13000 * 4 * 4.25 ) / 27 = $10250 + 8185 = $18,435

Case 1B: 4 yrs @ 20000 mpy
Prius ( $24000-$12000 ) + ( 20000 * 4 * 4.25 ) / 46 = $12000 + 7390 = $19,390
Matrix ( $20500-$10250 ) + ( 20000 * 4 * 4.25 ) / 27 = $10250 + 12590 = $22,840

Case 2A: 10 yrs @ 13000 mpy
Prius ( $24000-$1000 ) + ( 13000 * 10 * 5.75 ) / 46 = $23000 + 16250 = $39,250
Matrix ( $20500-$1000 ) + ( 13000 * 10 * 5.75 ) / 27 = $19500 + 27685 = $47,185

Case 2B: 10 yrs @ 20000 mpy
Prius ( $24000-$1000 ) + ( 20000 * 10 * 5.75 ) / 46 = $23000 + 25000 = $48,000
Matrix ( $20500-$1000 ) + ( 20000 * 10 * 5.75 ) / 27 = $19500 + 42600 = $62,100

That's 4 separate cases. Every one favors the Prius over the 2009 Matrix, it's natural companion for comparison purposes. The trends are obvious. In the short term the two vehicles are approximately equal in cost. As the miles increase and the vehicles are kept for longer periods of time the numbers are far in favor of the Prius.

Factors like opportunity costs of money not spent and financing will reduce these differences. Other factors like taxes, insurance, maintenance, and repairs are approximately equal according to Edmunds TCOs. Local incentives may swing the decision solidly in favor of the Prius...or any of the other hybrids.

BTW there is a reason that the Prius is the single hottest vehicle in the US, now that fuel is jumping up towards $4.00 per gallon everywhere. The US public knows that these figures make sense personally. If they are looking for a mid-$20K vehicle then the Prius is money in their pocket.

If they are looking to minimize total transportation costs then a bicycle is the best choice as a purchase.

gagrice · May 2008

Your gas prices are totally hypothetical with no basis in reality. You like to quote the oil men. Well look back at some of their quotes from 1980 when oil was over $30 per barrel. If you had said it would be a steady rise back then as you do now you would have been totally wrong, as were the doomsayers back then.

Basing the payback on a hybrid with gas prices that are not likely, makes all your calculations shaky at best. See $4 per gallon gas

kdhspyder · May 2008

No 'basis in reality'? C'mon. Since the early part of the decade this $.50 / gal increase is exactly what the reality has been. Since 1-1-2001 the price of gas has gone from about $1.25 to $3.50. Now what were we saying about reality?

I agree though that gas prices are very likely to fluctuate but I'm certain that they will increase at least this amount if not more. I'm personally betting on this in my own daily life. IMO, thus far borne out by the last 6 yrs, not to plan for such increases is to hide under the covers against the oil boogeyman. I prefer to face it and deal with it.

Precisely see the $4/gallon gas thread. All the signs point to oil and fuel prices doubling over the next 10 yrs....minimum.

gagrice · May 2008

All the signs point to oil and fuel prices doubling over the next 10 yrs....minimum.

I would say many of the opinions point to higher prices. I just don't think they have good sound information backing the opinions. Buying a hybrid as a hedge against possible future gas hikes would probably be good for someone that puts a lot of miles on a car. Then I have always said that. Those of us that want to keep a car for 20 years and under 100k miles would not be the targeted audience for a hybrid.

kdhspyder · May 2008

Agreed, as always. :shades:

gwmort · May 2008

I have driven my prius for 5.5 years and 98,000 miles. I have never had a mechanical or electrical maintenance issue with the car (but have replaced tires twice). Day to day operating and cost of maintenance to date it is the lowest I have ever had (only used American cars before the Prius).

When I was looking at hybrids as an early adopter the cost of the replacement battery spooked me, so I planned to trade it in before the battery warranty expired (8 yrs/98000 miles). I think it would be fair to compare the Prius up to that point with any other car with similar powertrain warranty. Now that I am used to and comfortable with my Prius I don't intend to turn it in anytime soon.

As to gas prices and the side by side comparison, I think kdhspyder did a great job above. Even if you disagree with the numbers, the trend will still bear out. That is to say into the future gas prices will rise, the more they rise the more economical a car with higher mileage becomes, that is all.

I think the more pertinent discussion would be with plug in hybrids coming in the next two years, and anticipating not only rising gas prices but actual fuel shortages. How much more valuable will a PHEV be than a conventional when the conventional can't be fueled at all?

plekto · May 2008

A few things t consider:

Nice trick, btw, in comparing the Prius' mileage to the Matrix's lowest (city) mileage. That one almost got by us. The Corolla gets 27/35 with the 1.8L engine. this is lot closer to the Prius, which is rated at 48/45. Please recalculate with 31mpg for the 1.8L engine.

1: Any smart person buys the Vibe and gets GM's financing or their 1-3K rebates(dep on time of year, ~2K is common). This makes the short and middle-term comparisons very nearly even, other than a couple of things: Insurance, interest, registration, and so on - all are marginally higher for the Prius. This adds up every year, bit by bit.

2:The long term scenarios don't include a replacement battery pack or the fact that a ten year old Prius will sell for NADA minus the cost of a new battery pack. This is the same as buying a car with 100K on the original automatic transmission. Please deduct the price of a new one when it comes to actually getting it sold, because no buyer will offer you anything else. That battery pack is a huge minus. It's a very close comparison between the two. Well, sort of...

3: The real problem is that you should compare base models with automatic. The typical person who is interested in truly saving money will buy one with as few options as possible and add a better after market radio and so on themselves. Only faker Yuppies will load out a Prius to 25K+.

I get a 2008 Vibe 1.6L with automatic selling for 18,706 from Cars Direct(including delivery charge). This is a base model with automatic, power windows and entry, and A/C. $1250 cash back right now. $17,456 net cost.

I get a Prius in base trim for 21,760 from Cars Direct

****modified***
Case 2B: 10 yrs 20000 mpy
Prius ( $21700+300 ) + ( 20000 * 10 * 5.75 ) / 46 = $22,000 + 25000 = $49,300
Vibe ( $17500-$3000 ) + ( 20000 * 10 * 5.75 ) / 31 = $14,500 + 37,096 = $51,600

Actually, you'd sell such a Prius for $0/pay to have it towed away most likely(the $300) - it would hit the end of the warranty and drop instantly $6500 in value(cost of a replacement battery pack). The Corolla at ten years old is actually worth about $3K. 49,300 vs 51,600. $2300 difference. That's $230 a year you are "saving" with the Prius. But add in those hidden costs because the Prius is a more expensive loan and extra tax, registration, insurance, and so on and it's a complete wash.

In effect, it never pays for itself relative to a standard economy type car.

Now, compare a VW TDI:(for fun)
http://www.autoblog.com/2007/11/08/vw-jetta-tdi-delayed-until-late-summer-2008/

Jetta TDI ( $23,000-$5000(better resale value)) + ( 20000 * 10 * 6.325(Diesel is about 10% more to buy) / 45 = $18,000 + 28,110(!) = $46,110. There's a reason people in Europe run TDIs

kdhspyder · May 2008

No you misread again and again you misunderstood that the Corolla Matrix is a 5 door hatch like the Prius is a 5-door hatch.
The EPA numbers for the Matrix are.. 25C / 31H / 27 Combined
The EPA numbers for the Prius are.... 48C / 45H / 46 Combined

No tricks here that's what they are. You were mistakenly comparing the Corolla sedan to the Prius. You have to use the Matrix/Vibe numbers.

Your point 1.) is very subjective because while the Vibe and Matix are the same vehicle there are buyers that will not buy a GM product under any circumstance just as there are GM buyers that will never set foot in a Toyota store. But I agree if GM is giving away it's Vibes then it may be more economical to buy the less expensive vehicle. Then again it may not be ( see below )

Your point 2.) is just speculation and it's false as indicated by the actual auction values on the original Prius which are now just reaching the limits of the hybrid warranty at 8 yrs ( there are still 2 more years for the CARB states ). There is in fact no discount for the older Prius'. They still carry a $500-$1000 premium over a similar vehicle ... In today's Black Book values, both vehicles with 105,000 - 110,000 mi...
2001 Gen 1 Prius = $3900
2001 Corolla LE = $3150
those are the numbers right now today if two buyers were to trade today.

Your point 3.) again is pure speculation on your part based on your own biases and preferences. What if your view of the typical buyer is different than someone else's. This is a HUGE market with widely differing incomes and tastes and requirements. You can't just put everybody into one little 'basic' box. Toyota has recognized this and frankly is wildly successful in finding these significant niches. Your view of the buyers is biased and too limited to be of any true value. In fact you have no clue as to who is really buying these.

Forget the Jetta TDI... the new one is going to be killed, maimed and left bleeding on the side of the road as all the rest of the new hybrids pass it by. First it's a VW and it's got two strikes against it before anyone even looks at the fuel prices. Bad timing about that debut this year, sorry 'bout that VW.

Your modified case two is tainted by two errors...

If you want to do a Cars Direct comparo on the two base trims that's OK and the
$21700 and $17500 buys are reasonable. However you keep coming up wrong values on the resales ( see above ) and you keep using the wrong fuel economy numbers ( see above ). You've got to do it right or it's too easy to pick apart your argument. Here I'll do it right for you.

A 10 yr old Corolla ( there was no Matrix/Vibe back then ) base model is 'worth' $1000 today at auction according to the Black Book. An 8 yr old Prius is 'worth' $3900 at auction today. That's as far back as the book goes. Let's say a 10 yr old base Prius is also 'worth' $1000 at auction.

Cost of Vehicle Depreciation:
Prius ..$21700 - $1000 = $20700 plus fuel cost
Vibe ...$17500 - $1000 = $16500 plus fuel cost

Fuel Cost using EPA fuel economy numbers, right off the site.
Prius 48 / 45 / 46 combined
Vibe 25 / 31 / 27 combined

(20000 * 10 * 5.75) / 46 = $25000 fuel cost
(20000 * 10 * 5.75) / 27 = $42600 fuel cost

Total Vehicle Depreciation + Fuel cost
Prius = $20700 + $25000 = $45700
Vibe = $16500 + 42600 = $58600........that's $13000 more than the Prius

This assumes that both are next to worthless at 10 yrs and 200,000 miles. The Vibe owner will spend that much more than the Prius owner over the course of ownership. Those are the numbers there's no way to get around them for this given case.

Now if fuel somehow drops back to $1.95 for the better part of 10 yrs or the driver only drives 5000 miles a year the equation changes greatly.

larsb · May 2008

plekto says, "There's a reason people in Europe run TDIs "

You are correct sir. And that reason is the lower taxes on diesel fuel. That is what caused Europe to become a diesel vehicle haven.

Take away the artificially reduced diesel fuel costs in Europe and the situation would have never developed.

gagrice · May 2008

Take away the artificially reduced diesel fuel costs in Europe

That is not true in all countries. You are leaving out the main reason that people buy diesels in the EU. They get 30% to 50% better mileage than the gas version of the same car. Diesel in the UK is higher than UG. Yet they still sell more diesels than gassers. They can hardly give a hybrid away over there because they are not good handling cars at high speed. That is a big issue with most Europeans. We will settle for a squishy ride and fast 0-60 times. Or in the case of the hybrids just a squishy ride.

tpe · May 2008

Consumer reports got *35mpg* combined for their Prius

I'm not sure where you got that number from but it wasn't CR. I just checked their website. In their road test they got 35/50 city/hwy mileage and 44 overall. Their road test of the Matrix yielded 19/36 city/hwy and 27 overall.

larsb · May 2008

Sales of hybrids have been slow in the UK for two reasons - lack of favorable tax incentives and the availability of decent diesel alternatives that have only slightly higher emissions than the Prius but cost a lot less.

Actually there's a third reason and that's the cost of a Prius in the UK compared to the US. Prices start at £17,777 in the UK ($36,000) but start at $20,950 in the US.

So Toyota has not really made the UK a "level playing field" for the Prius. Makes perfect sense that in that particular scenario the Prius would lose out to lower cost diesels.

Doesn't give the Prius a black eye in any way. As you know, the owner satisfaction surveys in the UK almost always have the Prius at or very near the top of the list. As in the USA, the UK buyers who can afford a Prius do indeed love it.

And FAR fewer people complain about the Prius ride than you seem to think, Gary.

plekto · May 2008

1: The Vibe *is* the same car as the Matrix and lots of people are well aware of this. Any person who is looking to save money as opposed to making a yuppie statement will cross-shop, especially with GM offering silly incentives.

2:A worn out transmission and out of warranty battery pack on a ten year old ANYTHING will net you a car with zero resale value at auction/trade-in, no matter what KBB actually says. But let's give you the benefit here for the sake of he argument, since it's only $1000 we're talking about, anyways.

Actually, I'm being generous here with the Corolla. If I was cross-shopping the Prius, I'd actually put it up against a Fit. 5 doors, better cargo area, better price, high MPG, and nearly identical performance. This comparison is fair, IMO, or as fair as it can get, considering that Toyota makes a 5 door Corolla in Japan and Europe but doesn't import it to the U.S.(why I said it's basically a Corolla and not a Matrix - we just don't *get* the 5 door Corolla here, but they do make one)

http://www.toyota-europe.com/cars/new_cars/corolla_verso/index.aspx

Anyways...

Let's compare the Fit, then. Get the Fit with automatic:(1 inch larger wheels and a louder stereo and fog lights isn't worth $1300 "Sport" package, IMO)
Fit: 14,750+250 for an after-market stereo with an IPod/MP3/Aux port/jack.
Prius: 21,700

Cost of Vehicle Depreciation:
Prius ..$21,700 - $1000 = $20700 plus fuel cost
Fit ...$15,000 - $1000 = $14,000 plus fuel cost

Fuel Cost using EPA fuel economy numbers, right off the site.
Prius 48 / 45 / 46 combined
Fit 27 / 34 / 31.5 combined

(20,000 * 10 * 5.75) / 46 = $25,000 fuel cost + one replacement battery pack (let's say a very generous $4,500, factoring in future economy of scale) No way it's going ten years and 200K without needing one.(see below)
(20,000 * 10 * 5.75) / 31.5 = $36507 fuel cost

Total Vehicle Depreciation + Fuel cost
Prius = $20,700 + $25,000 +$4,500 = $50,200
Fit = $14,000 + $36,500 = $50,500

Silly close.

It's just not worth it, IMO, since that replacement battery pack is a major hurdle.
Also, ten year old electronics are a major problem if they start to degrade. If anything goes, it's lots of money to fix and it won't run. Plus, the transmission is about $3500 to replace. It's a hideously expensive car to fix if anything breaks. Not that it is prone to breaking, but when it does, something like a Vibe/Matrix/Fit/etc will cost a fraction as much, mostly because they aren't filled with bleeding-edge technology.(BMW and Mercedes have the same problem as well)

http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2007/07/used_hybrids.html

http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/06/Autos/tipsandadvice/hybrid_resale/index.htm

gagrice · May 2008

Prices start at £17,777 in the UK ($36,000) but start at $20,950 in the US.

That could mean one of two things. The UK has a huge tariff on cars or Toyota is not selling at a loss in the UK. The VW TDI in the Prius size sells for as much or more. I will stick with my assessment that Europeans are more interested in good handling than we are over here.

kdhspyder · May 2008

If you want to continue to go down the size and quality chart you are free to do so eventually you'll try comparing the Prius to a bicycle and I'll agree that the bicycle is a 'better buy'.

The Fit is two sizes and 'qualities' below the Prius but you are free to make any comparison you please. Remember though that the bicycle wins every comparo.

Obviously you have never been 'shown' what a Prius is all about so you are still in the dark, one of the last in the US it seems, about why it's so successful. I'll leave it that your prejudices don't allow you to form a balanced view. Here is the simple fact.

The Matrix/Vibe is the non-hybrid Prius. They are the same size with similar equipment and similar market objectives. You are free to ignore this an make any comparo you wish.

Your whole fixation on the battery pack having to be replaced is so 2003-ish. In case you missed it there was a huge thread here about this subject. It died out when it became apparent that battery packs probably will NEVER have to be replaced for any normal vehicle lifetime. You continue to assess a cost where no cost exists. Remember in all the CARB states the warranty is 10 yrs / 150,000 miles!!! Til then the cost to the consumer is ZERO. On Toyota's website they explicitly state that the batteries should last the life of the vehicle. In the case of most Toyota's that's about 250,000+

At 200,000 miles and 10 yrs old no normal vehicle in this country is worth more than $1000, neither hybrid nor gasser nor diesel. At this age anyone would be a fool to think about replacing a tranny in a Taurus or several ECU's in a Malibu or a battery pack in a Prius or Civic. Who in their right mind is going to sink $2000-$4000 into a vehicle that's worth $300? Be real.

I'm sorry that you just don't get it. Although I think now that you may just be trolling and stirring the pot. Since you've stepped all the way down to a Fit as a vehicle that's cost equivalent to a Prius I guess you'll have to go to a Chery or Tata to find one that costs less. But remember ... a bicycle always ends up winning every comparo.

gwmort · May 2008

Its been a while since I shopped for a prius, but I wonder why no one is comparing to the Echo (or do they not make those anymore?). When I bought my 2003 Prius it was claerly the echo with a hybrid upgrade and better electronics. They were literally the same car, frame and body (slight differnce in the hood design). I still think most latecomer Prius owners don't recognize I'm in one on the road.

gagrice · May 2008

The first Prius was Echo based from what I can tell. The 2004 Prius was ground up different. I don't think it shares with any of the other Toyotas. I don't think there is any real changes coming in the 2009. The PHEV Prius is still a future vehicle unless you want to convert an older one.

PS
The Echo is long gone.

plekto · May 2008

The Fit is slightly more narrow than the Prius, but it's essentially the same car in terms of interior space and how it feels.

If Honda can make a smaller car feel larger inside than the Prius, good for them. I'd honestly much rather have a Honda Fit than a Prius. I've driven both and the Fit is much better. More spacious feeling, better cargo capacity, and better visibility, especially out the rear.

-
Internal dimensions: front headroom (inches): 39.1, rear headroom (inches): 37.1, front hip room (inches): 51, rear hip room (inches): 51.6, front leg room (inches): 41.9, rear leg room (inches): 38.6, front shoulder room (inches): 55.3, rear shoulder room (inches): 53 and interior volume (cu ft): 96.2

-
Internal dimensions: front headroom (inches): 40.6, rear headroom (inches): 38.6, front hip room (inches): 51.2, rear hip room (inches): 51.0, front leg room (inches): 41.9, rear leg room (inches): 33.7, front shoulder room (inches): 52.8, rear shoulder room (inches): 50.6 and interior volume (cu ft): 90.1

But because of the way the Fit's seats recline, the rear seat is far more spacious feeling(plus your feet can slide *under* the cushion a bit as well. In most other ways, the Fit is beating the Prius, especially in useable cargo area:

Fit: 23.1(seats up)/41.9(seats down)
Prius: 14.4(seats up)/(can't find this data anywhere, looks like 50 or so, though)
Bit the Fit is flat and much more square, especially at the rear. Maybe the Prius wins a little bit here, but then again it can't fit tall items like the Fit can, so I'd call this close to a wash.

http://www.newcars.com/toyota/prius/reviews/honda-fit.html
Evidently a lot of people cross-shop the two.

kdhspyder · May 2008

There has never been a discussion about the fact that a smaller vehicle, with lesser amenities, lower ride quality and lower-priced market target is ALWAYS a valid option for the budget-conscious.

The Fit is a a very capable small econobox. Nothing more. It suits some more than others that's all that can be said.

The Prius is a revolutionary vehicle that appeals to a much larger segment of the population and has changed the direction of the auto industry entirely by itself. I encourage buyers to cross-shop both the HCH and the Fit. In fact I often take them to our Honda store to do just that. That answers all their questions. Driving the 3 back-to-back-to-back is the deciding factor.

However, if a buyer is a $16000-$18000 buyer it's unfair to try to bump them up to $24000 for a Package #2 Prius. The Fit is a better fit for the budget conscious. The 'Total Cost of Transportation' is lower certainly. This has never been a question.

It just depends on what the buyer wants...
...features, ride quality, safety, room, fuel economy ---> the Prius wins all of these
...price and affordability ---> the Fits wins here.

Both are good choices.

plekto · May 2008

***quote***
The Prius is an evolutionary vehicle that appeals to a much wealthier segment of the population and has changed the direction of the auto industry entirely by luck and marketing
****
There. I fixed it for you.

It's really a terribly inefficient hybrid design and a half-hearted attempt on Toyota's part compared to what the technologies are capable of. But somehow people have bought into it.

kdhspyder · May 2008

The inexorble and extraordinary growth of the Prius belies another of your mistaken beliefs.

Your corrections show that you know very very little about the auto market and what is occuring today. Wishing to remain in the dark does have its advantages for you though. You have no need to face reality.

The numbers speak for themselves.

BTW marketing is a HUGE factor in the success of the Prius. On this you are very very correct. Hellooooo this is a business. Marketing is a key component but from the tone of your post I don't think that you understand the full ramifications of what marketing really is. From your prior posts your confusion in your last sentence is understandable.

tpe · May 2008

It's really a terribly inefficient hybrid design and a half-hearted attempt on Toyota's part compared to what the technologies are capable of.

Toyota and the Japanese government spent a lot of resources in developing the Prius. No one was forcing them to do this. What would be their motivation for only a half-hearted effort or not taking advantage of the best technologies available?

The Prius is currently the highest mileage vehicle you can buy. So apparently none of the auto manufacturers want to exploit what the current technologies are capable of. Again, what would be the motivation?

You obviously possess a level of expertise in this field that is beyond most. What would you say is the Prius's most glaring deficiency that qualifies it as a "terribly inefficent hybrid design"?

gwmort · May 2008

I dislike when people complain of the Prius not pushing the tech envelope to the limit. A key factor for Toyota is and hopefully always will be reliability. They did the best they could have with what was proven to be dependable and reliable.

Also, just because everyone is now familiar with hybrids and where the trends seem to be going, 6 years ago the Prius WAS pretty cutting edge, and better than anyone else (other than perhaps Honda) was even trying.

I think that Toyota is not pushing to next gen to Lithium or plug-in because it hasn't reaped enough of its intitial development costs yet, but when the company is ready I am sure they will impress us again.

plekto · May 2008

The Insight got 60mpg. A proper hybrid should be capable of 100mpg. That is, a TDI or similar engine running as an onboard generator powering a purely electric drivetrain. The problem with the Prius from an engineering standpoint is that it's made to be able to work as both electric and gasoline, which is wasteful. It isn't a true hybrid, but instead is a dual-engine design that switches back and forth.

45mpg isn't close to what hybrids can accomplish. The auto makers are implementing this in baby steps so as to not tank their smaller vehicle sales. 100mpg Civic for 20K? Yeah, good luck selling any of the Fits or gasoline powered models at that point. At least in the U.S.(mostly because these designs call for TDI engines which are essentially verboten in the U.S.)

Btw - Smart is coming out with a TDI hybrid next year or two in Europe. 80-90mpg. Expect it to sell like crazy now that fuel over there has hit $10 a gallon.

tpe · May 2008

The Insight did not get 60 mpg under the EPA's new rating system.

The problem with the Prius from an engineering standpoint is that it's made to be able to work as both electric and gasoline, which is wasteful.

Actually that's not true. Using an ICE to power a generator, which then charges a battery pack, which is then used to power an electric motor adds additional energy conversion steps. From an engineering perspective each conversion step incurs a loss.

larsb · May 2008

Whew, I was trying to stay out of this one, but too much is going on to not respond......:)

To this comment:

"The Insight got 60mpg. A proper hybrid should be capable of 100mpg."

You are wrong in a couple of areas there - just the two you addressed, however. First, the Insight can do FAR FAR better than 60 MPG. There are several folks who have lifetime averages in the 90s. And the Prius has been shown to be "capable" of 110 miles per gallon.

To this comment:

"It isn't a true hybrid, but instead is a dual-engine design that switches back and forth. "

Hybrid in the world of cars means "uses more than one SINGLE method of propulsion." The Toyota hybrids use gas propulsion (alone) electric propulsion (alone) and also "electric assist for the gas engine." For those not counting at home, that is three methods of propulsion. So yes, the Toyotas are indeed hybrids.

The reason the Prius was not put on the street with the capability of achieving a steady 80 MPG and to go 10 miles on electric only is to preserve and lengthen the life of the battery system. Because of the current battery technology (and that which we had in 1995-1997) the Prius is limited. It's not something that was put in the car "on purpose to make it less capable" as you seem to believe it is. The balance and limited use of the hybrid drivetrain is designed to allow the battery to perform for many years and hopefully a few hundred thousand miles.

Toyota (or Honda or GM or Ford) could make a 100 MPG hybrid right now, today. The only problem is that it would wear the battery out in about 3-4 years. The truly "disposable car" concept.

Once battery technology catches up (see A123 Systems) then the cars will truly have outstanding MPG, as opposed to just the "excellent" they have now.

Of the Smart TDI hybrid - I'll believe it when I see it. I have been wanting a clean diesel hybrid sedan in the USA for about 4 years now.

plekto · May 2008

Oh, it won't be for sale in the U.S. Only Europe will get that model. Joy!.

transpower · June 2008

If the MMH costs $1750 more than the MM, and gasoline costs $3.96/gal, and in an average year $15000 miles are driven, then it only takes 2.3 years to pay for the additional cost of the hybrid!

From U.S. News and World Report:

Hybrid Average MPG Price Difference Annual Gas Savings Years to Pay Off

Mercury Mariner 32.2 $1,750 $772 2.3
Ford Escape 32.2 $2,740 $560 4.9
Saturn VUE 28.15 $2,920 $572 5.1
Lexus RX 400h 25.65 $3,880 $618 6.3
Nissan Altima 34.1 $6,840 $892 7.7
Toyota Highlander 26.1 $6,033 $594 10.2
Toyota Camry 33.45 $6,630 $554 12
Honda Civic 42.25 $7,590 $601 12.6
Saturn Aura 27.6 $2,395 $168 14.2
GMC Yukon 21.45 $14,700 $886 16.6
Chevrolet Malibu 27.6 $2,795 $168 16.6
Chevrolet Tahoe 21.45 $14,960 $886 16.9

1stpik · June 2008

Whoa there! Who says the Honda Civic Hybrid costs $7,600 more than the Civic? Obviously, they're comparing the fully-loaded hybrid with the base model Civic DX, which doesn't even have air conditioning.

WRONG!

The Civic Hybrid costs $3,000 more than the similarly-equipped Civic EX. When I bought mine last year, it came with a $2,100 tax rebate, so that made the effective price difference only $900. The gas savings have already covered most of that.

This year, the tax credit is only $1,050, but that still takes a bite out of the hybrid premium. And at $4/gal., the gas savings are substantial.

So forget that 12 year payback claim. Try two or three years max.

Hybrids the Real Payback

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