What to expect from the next model year Prius

kdhspyder · July 2008

The 2009's are being built now, today.
They are exactly the same as the 2008's.
The Chairman of Toyota will introduce the new Gen 3 Prius at the NAIAS in Detroit in January.
The 'line off' of this vehicle in Japan will be April 2009 as a 2010 model.
Normally it should arrive here in Summer 2009.
It will have NiMH battery technology in the first year or two.

Then... if all engineering tests are completed and results found to be satisfactory the Li-Ion technology will debut in late 2010 or 2011, depending.

Everything else is speculation.

Toyota has been leaking and confirming these data to certain well-placed sources such as Edmunds here and PriusChat.com among others. Rampant speculation however does help keep the pot boiling on the Net.

kdhspyder · July 2008

But Toyota would be wise to keep the standard Prius at the current price. Honda's trying hard to nip them on the low end and the new Honda hybrid-only model will squeeze their market share seriously if Toyota gives it a chance

A lowend Honda hybrid will never be serious competition to a Prius simply because it will be too basic and too small. It will probably be at least equal if not better in FE as compared to the current Prius but maybe not so competitive to the Gen 3.

Then there is allegedly a new family of Prius' coming out soon including one smaller to compete directly with the HCH and the new hybrid-only model. This one is very likely to be a lot smaller and a lot more basic and A LOT better on FE than either the standard Prius or the HCH or the new Honda hybrid.

maribago · July 2008

"A lowend Honda hybrid will never be serious competition to a Prius simply because it will be too basic and too small. It will probably be at least equal if not better in FE as compared to the current Prius but maybe not so competitive to the Gen 3."

kdhspyder, I see you are a 3-posts-a-day heavy forum user, so I want to defer to you. But help us out here: how can you be sure the new hybrid-only Honda will be "too basic and too small" compared to the Prius? I wouldn't underestimate a company with resources and the history of Honda. (Btw, I too have a 2005 Prius, so my bias should be toward Toyota, just like yours)

lotusfan · July 2008

If the $10,000 premium is for the plug-in option, then it is overpriced. You can buy a plug in-conversion for your current Prius for $5000. Building it in the car at the time of manufacture is going to be cheaper (lower costs due to significantly higher volume, lower costs due to not modifying the car after it is produced, lower cost due to more automation in production). Further, industry estimates suggest that a plug-in option could added to production for $3000-$5000 (or less, depending on volume).

kdhspyder · July 2008

The info available is that Honda is looking for a Fit-sized hybrid, i.e. smaller than the HCH. In this market for the most part small means basic. We Americans don't like to pay high prices for small cars.

Also I think that with the least expensive hybrid now on the road starting about $22000 that there's a huge potential for Honda to gain a big slug of buyers in the $18000+ range. But to get down to this price level something has to give, it's usually the size and the content.

As a side note, and this is my own personal opinion, I think that for the present the four main hybrid makers are intentionally NOT treading on each others toes. Note that none of the 'true hybrids' on the road today compete against another hybrid in the same class. This is NOT a coincidence IMO. To keep this order Honda will go lower and more basic ISO going after the Prius. It's also good business.

If Honda does go after the Prius with a new hybrid then I'd expect Toyota to go after the HCH with it's own smaller Prius sedan. The agreement would be broken in this case.

kdhspyder · July 2008

I agree but for those who are desperately seeking a plugin it's not too much of a stretch if the warranties are similar in length.

The Volt has already been announced at coming to market in the $40000 range. But....there's a huge unmentioned factor in this. GM has been working the halls of Congress to get a significant tax break credit for all plugins and EREVs. By announcing that they plan to sell it for $40000 I'm certain that they are confident of a $5000 - $10000 tax credit for the buyers. Now the net difference is only about $3000-$5000 over a top trim Toyota. Slick move on their part this would be. The Volt is announced to get 40 gas-free miles. The Prius PHEV is expected to get maybe 20 gas-free miles.

But on the Toyota side this is what I'd expect to see. The Prius is going to remain the main driving force simply because to most its name means 'hybrid'. This is why Toyota is looking to expand the lineup both smaller and larger with 3 or 4 or 5 different 'Prius models'.

If it remains the basic hybrid in Toyota's lineup then it will remain as a NiMH hybrid simply because this technology is so stable, so durable and now after 1.3 million vehicles so cost effective.
NiMH Prius' ranging from $22000 up to $30000 with different amenities. Then in 2011 a plugin model with Li-Ion technology as a 'super trim' in the $35000 or $36000 price range. From recent indications from Toyota these PHEV Prius' will number in the several hundred at first. Toyota has never been very excited by this concept at all.

I tend to agree and I think you would too. Too expensive for too little benefit. However over at PriusChat and other sites there is a hardcore group of EVs that can't wait to spend the money for one. For me when my current 'outdated' Prius is used up at 250,000 or 300,000 miles I'll probably just go with another NiMH 'traditional' model in the low 20's....or a used one.

Nevertheless with such a HUGE and wealthy market I'm sure that Toyota ( and GM ) will find all the buyers they want in the $30000-$35000 range. If these buyers happen to have the perfect commute or annual usage they could stop buying petro-fuel forever.

Just as an example one 1 fillup every 6 months vs a 33 mpg Corolla or Civic. Both driven 12000 mi/yr at an average cost of $5 / gal over 7 yrs of driving. For those that hate the oil companies, or hate the oil producers or want to use no fuel for environmental reasons it's very very seductive to buy a vehicle that uses no fuel. They are apparently more willing to pay some 'premium' to an auto company rather than to an oil company. This is a perfectly valid reason for buying also.

There are a lot of GM proponents over at GMI that can't wait to shell out $35000-$40000 ( with an expected credit ) in order to get GM back on its feet thus to stick it to the oil companies who they see as putting GM in the mess they are now.

stevedebi · July 2008

"Also I think that with the least expensive hybrid now on the road starting about $22000 that there's a huge potential for Honda to gain a big slug of buyers in the $18000+ range. But to get down to this price level something has to give, it's usually the size and the content. "

The Fit is already pushing 18K (sports model), so a hybrid version is more likely at 20K or so. BUT it should get much better MPG than the HCH due to it's smaller size and lower weight. Plus, it is a hatchback.

jaxs1 · July 2008

Toyota has decided to build the next-generation Prius in the United states to better address changes in consumer demand.
To do this, they will move Highlander production to one of the Tundra assembly plants and build Tundras in only one plant.
This will also deal with changes in the value of the US dollar vs the Yen and reduce overcapacity for building Tundras.

fookahn · July 2008

Yes, you are right, THANKS. I called my dealer and said you are correct, I made the mistake, Sorry.

As far as wait for 2010, I will get my 2009 and keep it until 2010's are out, sell the 2009 for about what I paid. The old Prius's hold the value very well, having said that the 2010's production may choke the market reducing the value of the used Prius.

Dealer says that production is underway.

dmathews3 · July 2008

For most vehicles that doesn't hold true. when a new model comes out there is a bigger than normal drop in price. Why would someone want to give you what/almost what you paid when they could buy for a few bucks more a 2010 with all new technology? I'm sure they are thinking the same as you, I want the new one that will be the same for at least the next 5 years.

kdhspyder · July 2008

Yes 2009 production is underway. We already have the 2009 brochures waiting the arrival of the new models.

I have a feeling that there is likely to be a 'Gold Rush' mentality for the new 2010's similar to what occured back in 03, 04 and the beginning of 05. Yes, production will be far greater than at that time but if fuel is topping $5 a gallon and the new model is more efficient than this Gen I can see it being oversubscribed for at least 6 months or until the new plant in Miss can get wound up.

jaxs1 · July 2008

Usually when a new model comes out the initial production is pretty slow, so the 2010 Prius will probably be in short supply for several months after it debuts and may have a backlog of people who pre-ordered to be the first to buy the new design.
If there are issues with the new technology, production may slow even further.

backy · July 2008

What new technology would that be? The 2010 Prius is supposed to have the same kind of technology as the current Prius, but with an ICE derived from the Corolla's 1.8L engine. The new battery technology comes later. At least that is what I've read.

Initial supply will probably depend on how fast the U.S. plant can ramp up.

coupedncal · July 2008

The new plant in Mississippi is not expected to come live until late 2010. My belief is most 2010 cars will be assembled in Japan (or China??) and 2011 model year is when US production will kick in. It will be interesting to see differences in manufacturing quality between their plants.

fookahn · July 2008

Dealer just called, says early to mid August, come and get it!. Had my money down for 2 months. Can't wait. Dealer has put me in line for 2010 ($500.00), I will trade 2009 and expect that people hoping for good mileage will line up for the used prius. Many people out there looking for anything that has mileage. I see old Prius's selling for high dollars. If gas keeps going up I will make a profit, Gas goes down, then I keep 2009. Regardless of hybrid, Toyota holds value, hybrid & Toyota holds value better.

Want plug in, will sell 2009 for the plug. I am on ComEd real time pricing program. Charge different rate per hour, some days 4 hours free power, no charge at all. plug in at night, yeah. electric bill down to 48.00 a month. go to www.thewattspot.com.

jaxs1 · July 2008

For those of you who are going to wait for 2010 redesigned Prius, you might as well look at the 2010 Honda Insight also. It is like a Prius clone for less money.
It should start in the $19-20K range.

http://images.leftlanenews.com/content/may2008/insight-10.jpg

http://i268.photobucket.com/albums/jj24/Vehiclefit/insight-12.jpg

At least there will be good competition when both these new models come out during the same year.

lotusfan · July 2008

Yes, a new Honda hybrid, or from other makers that might get to the market by then is another reason to wait to pull the trigger.

But I have to say that buying one now and then selling it and buying a year alter might also be a goo strategy provided we are convinced that resales prices will remain high, such that you biggest cost of swapping models is an extra couple thousand dollars of sales tax from buying twice.

kdhspyder · July 2008

I think Honda has a big winner here with their own Prius.

However it's clearly intended for the budget buyer who doesn't want to put up $23000 ( HCH ) or $25000+ ( Prius ). From the pics shown it's probably Fit-sized with a few basic amenities. It is afterall a $17000 vehicle with a $2000 hybrid option. It probably doesn't compare to either the HCH or the Prius in ride, amenities or options.

It will probably be better than both the HCH and the Prius in fuel economy though. I'd esimate ~60 mpg on average. However in I believe that we will soon see a Prius sedan ( Toyo's HCH knockoff ) which will be smaller, more basic and more fuel efficient than either the HCH or the Prius ( a Yaris-sized hybrid sedan? ). I'd guess we will see 60-65 mpg on average for this baby Prius also.

jaxs1 · July 2008

It doesn't look smaller than the Prius in the pictures.
The styling looks like a Prius, but Honda says they were emulating the styling of their new FCX Clarity. The front grill will look like a FCX.

kdhspyder · July 2008

The back end is smaller than the Prius. I'll wager that the seating inside is smaller as well.

lotusfan · July 2008

Actually I saw a spy picture somewhere on the web of the Honda side by side with a Prius and they looked nearly identical in size (not to mention very close in shape). From what I've read it is supposed to be Prius-sized. There have been rumors, however, of another Fit-based hybrid. (That would make 4 potential; Honda hybrids, the Insight, the Civic, the Fit hybrid, and the CR-Z).

sr1945 · July 2008

http://www.vtec.net/forums/one-message?message_id=776255&news_item_id=776084

jaxs1 · July 2008

Toyota plans to greatly increase production of the new Prius.

http://www.leftlanenews.com/toyota-reported-to-hike-up-prius-production-by-70.ht- ml

tiff_c · July 2008

I'm also very interested in the new Honda Hybrid. I bought my current Civic over the Prius because of the uncomfortable and barely adjustable seats in the Prius.
Does the Honda Hybrid have it's own forum yet?
I will consider the new 2010 MY Prius when it comes out but no question I will compare it to all the other cars hybrid and otherwise that are available at that time.
Toyota has ticked people off with minimum $1,000 deposits for waiting lists. Dealers have a right but when they have plenty of cars people will remember how they were treated, no matter the brand.

kdhspyder · July 2008

Huh?

$500 - $1500 deposits have been de rigueur on specially-ordered vehicles ever since I began in this business. Since you don't have one and presumably are not interested in a current one I find it curious that you'd make such an issue of it based on what are second-hand reports at best.

BTW this concerns not only the current Prius but the current Corolla, last year's Tundra when it debuted, the 07 Camry before that, the 04-06 Prius' before that, the 04 Sienna before that. It was also de rigueur on the SSR's when they first arrived, the new Corvettes, the first Silverado's, the Hybrid Tahoe's, the first of the new Civics,etc, etc, etc.

tiff_c · July 2008

$500 - $1500 deposits have been de rigueur on specially-ordered vehicles ever since I began in this business. Since you don't have one and presumably are not interested in a current one I find it curious that you'd make such an issue of it based on what are second-hand reports at best.

What's second hand? I went to the dealer, my wife wanted to get a Prius a couple of months ago. Not a chance, they need $1,000 down and then they Match an incoming car to your needs and sell it to you. The $1,000 merely gets you in line.
So that's NOT a special order and a few months before that I could have easily bought the car below invoice. Dealers tend to do things like this which is why on the top 10 list of untrustworthy professions Car dealers are near the top.

lotusfan · July 2008

Where are you guys located that you have such short supply? I think I posted this before, but I get regular e-mails from dealers in the area (Northern Virginia) about Priuses they have to sell me -- no waiting lists, no deposits. Just a few days ago, a dealer said they had 19 Priuses in stock.

kdhspyder · July 2008

Again what's the problem. This $500-$1500 deposit process it the same for all vehicles. Why does it irk you so much about the Prius? I currently have two Corolla's 'ordered' for delivery at the end of the month where the buyers wanted to place their orders at the end of June. We also have Yaris' on order with $500 deposits and Prius' on order with $1000 deposits.

Ahhh, in your 2nd paragraph you tipped your hand as to the real reason for your dissatisfaction. You missed out on buying in the early part of the year when there was plenty of supply and Prius' were being sold for a discount off MSRP. Then fuel went to $3.50 and then above $4.00 and even up to $5.00 and the entire population of NA went to its local Toyota strore and said "I'll take a Prius now"...and then they were all gone. You were in this rush and you missed out on the discounts in the early part of the year. Timing is everything. Relax, it's just supply and demand and the market operating efficiently. The market is supplying those who are willing to pay a certain price and it's not supplying those who want a lower price.

At some time in the future it will balance out again....assuming fuel doesn't get stupid.

And yes dealers do these things. It's called Capitalism. It's called a market-based economy. It's not at all questionable. Simply put you weren't quick enough this year and you lost out on the better buy. It happens every day all across the world.

tiff_c · July 2008

Where are you guys located that you have such short supply? I think I posted this before, but I get regular e-mails from dealers in the area (Northern Virginia) about Priuses they have to sell me -- no waiting lists, no deposits. Just a few days ago, a dealer said they had 19 Priuses in stock.

We are up in New Hampshire and they are all sold out and claim 6 months before they get any new stock in even if you are on their waiting list.
Every other car you see up here lately is a Prius. It's like the Ford Pinto/VW Bug of the new Millennium. I can't drive anywhere up here without seeing half a dozen of them.

kdhspyder · July 2008

Careful of the wording.

His email might have said 'available' not 'in stock'. It's highly unlikely that any dealer in the US has any 'in stock' except a few isolated ones where an 'orderer' might have backed out, certainly not in NoVa. Laurel Toyota CARMAX is the largest Toyota dealer on the EC and I believe it's No 2 in the country.
http://www.carmax.com/enUS/locations/Maryland-Both-Laurel-Toyota-7806.html
It has ZERO Prius' new or used in stock.

Now some stores may have 20 or more 2008s in stock right now today.....but these are all fleet turn-ins from Hertz or Enterprise or off-lease vehicles, all purchased at auction. For example our Richmond store had 27 of these 10 days ago.

kdhspyder · July 2008

Just as a point of reference the higher population areas are getting more. We've had 70 new units available to us from July 15th through Aug 10th. All of them found owners well before they arrived. Every one of them was fixed with a $500-$1000 deposit and was sold at MSRP.

There are roughly another 10+ buyers who are waiting for a specific package/color/interior so they've just continued to bump themselves down the list until their specific combo arrives.

OTOH a goodly number of buyers have had to wait less than 3 weeks. But again this is just a characteristic of supply and demand. The biggest supply goes to where the biggest demand is.

toyotaken · July 2008

As per a news article that I had forwarded to me this morning, Toyota announced that there will be an increase in MSRP of $500 on the 2009 Prius vs. the 2008 models. There was no information leading to a re-design for the 2009 model, so it appears that they will be holding off on the re-design for the 2010 model at this point.

Ken

lotusfan · July 2008

You wrote, "His email might have said 'available' not 'in stock'."

The e-mails I get definitely say "in stock".

sbell4 · July 2008

The e-mails I get definitely say "in stock".

yeah, well I also have eight (8) 2008 Toyota Prius in stock.....and they are off-lease vehicles. I agree with kdhspyder, they are not new and untitled.

tiff_c · July 2008

Just as a point of reference the higher population areas are getting more. We've had 70 new units available to us from July 15th through Aug 10th. All of them found owners well before they arrived. Every one of them was fixed with a $500-$1000 deposit and was sold at MSRP.

Hey at least you are selling them at MSRP and not above. That is something. Too many dealers overcharge. Personally I will not tie up $1,000 unless the dealer is giving me interest on the money. I'm currently getting 4.76%. The dealer says 3-6 months. No thanks, but for the people who can't wait the dealers are there for them.
I will wait until the panic dies down and probably buy the Honda Hybrid if it's as good as it looks. Toyota put me off a bit and I'll still give them a chance but it'll come down to money. Cash buyers like myself are very fussy about the money since it's out of pocket.
So far the fuel is dropping a bit over here so that might tame the feeding frenzy a bit.

kdhspyder · July 2008

I think that you'll find that the new [Honda hybrid, Insight, Hindsight, Honda Prius] will be a very basic vehicle somewhat below a Civic. The Fit is a good comparison point.

The pricing almost dictates it. At $19000 including a $2000 hybrid option the base vehicle would sell @ ~$17000. That's about the price of a base, base 5 spd Civic or Corolla with rollup windows. This is a good thing for that buying segment but it has very little appeal at all to the current buying segments for the HCH and the Prius.

tiff_c · July 2008

I think that you'll find that the new [Honda hybrid, Insight, Hindsight, Honda Prius] will be a very basic vehicle somewhat below a Civic. The Fit is a good comparison point.

That's cheaper than a Prius but I have driven more than a few Prius's and they lack a telescoping steering wheel, seat height adjustment etc....
I expect that the Honda version will probably have the trim level of a Civic LX.
But Honda like Toyota is keeping as quiet as possible about details like options and pricing.
Toyota is the front runner, but I will be interested to see how Honda competes. One thing is for certain, Buyers will have more than the Prius to go to if the new Honda proves out. Honda certainly wants a big slice of the hybrid market. The Fit is somewhat underpowered especially with the automatic. My friend owned a Jazz and I drove that a lot when I was visiting him. I fully expect that the newer Honda Hybrid will not be as underpowered as the Fit. The Prius is no speed demon, but it's acceptable, considering the fuel economy.

beantown · July 2008

tiff c:

You're in NH. Why don't you drive down an hour or two to Boch Toyota on route one in MA? They have 10 new priuses IN STOCK and on their lot today. They also have 3 used on the lot today. I always love it when people in other regions speak as if they have knowledge of what other regions have access to from week to week, when obviously they are just guessing based off what they have.

tiff_c · July 2008

You're in NH. Why don't you drive down an hour or two to Boch Toyota on route one in MA? They have 10 new priuses IN STOCK and on their lot today. They also have 3 used on the lot today. I always love it when people in other regions speak as if they have knowledge of what other regions have access to from week to week, when obviously they are just guessing based off what they have.

Thanks, it's a bit further than 2 hours but I will call them on the phone tomorrow and see what they have to say. I'd hate to drive there to find out they have no actual stock. The Toyota dealer told me they had stock and when I went there the truth was they had no Prius at all. I spoke with their Internet sales manager. They sure tried the bait and switch on me tho.

waverunr · July 2008

I did not like that either. Shame on you BOCH! . I have a deposit on one at Boch and have been waiting for weeks . I am suprised that BOCH needs to sell this way.

dmathews3 · July 2008

Don't be surprised if they tell you those are all sold when you call/go there. Now a stranger comes in after you and bingo, they aren't sold anymore. Dealers work that way sometimes.

beantown · July 2008

I did not like that either. Shame on you BOCH! . I have a deposit on one at Boch and have been waiting for weeks . I am suprised that BOCH needs to sell this way.

Read her post again. It wasn't Boch that was playing the game; it was the original dealership she talked to in NH. She hasn't even checked with Boch yet, so don't be so quick to bad mouth them.

You are probably still waiting for yours because it is a distinct package from what they have on the lots now, and probably isn't one they get very many of. If you are willing to take one of the three or four distinct packages they have available now, you obviously wouldn't have to wait.

tiff_c · July 2008

I did not like that either. Shame on you BOCH! . I have a deposit on one at Boch and have been waiting for weeks . I am suprised that BOCH needs to sell this way.

Yeah they have no stock at all. They said they will not have any until Winter. I spoke with their Internet person. If you want a Prius from Boch Don't "Come on Down!" until winter. :sick:

tiff_c · July 2008

Don't be surprised if they tell you those are all sold when you call/go there. Now a stranger comes in after you and bingo, they aren't sold anymore. Dealers work that way sometimes.

That is the biggest load of cow manure I have heard in a long time! Dealers are in business to sell cars, not hide them from perspective customers. They will not tell you it's a 6 month wait when they have them on the lot.

tiff_c · July 2008

Read her post again. It wasn't Boch that was playing the game; it was the original dealership she talked to in NH. She hasn't even checked with Boch yet, so don't be so quick to bad mouth them.

His post, I'm a guy not a girl.
Anyway they do not have any at Boch and will not have any for 6 months. Their website has not been updated they claim because a car isn't listed as sold until the client picks it up.
Ernie Boch has no Prius and will not have any until winter at least 6 months was their exact wording. Any Prius that comes in is already sold but not listed as sold on the website.
It's bad practice not updating the website when you know the cars are sold. More dealer BS and some dealers are now refusing to do warranty work on cars they don't sell. One of the other forums had a topic on this.

kdhspyder · July 2008

... for the readers and lurkers the reality is that most stores are sold out of Prius' for the next several months until the 09's begin to arrive in significant numbers. As tiff_c noted it may be well into Fall or Winter until the supply begins to catch up with the orders in hand.

However this is NOT the situation in every single case. Some larger stores can have relatively quick turn around on orders placed even today. Areas with more hybrid demand are receiving a larger share of the limited supply. Stores investing and expanding are actually getting extra units.

Prius' ARE available.

tiff_c · July 2008

However this is NOT the situation in every single case. Some larger stores can have relatively quick turn around on orders placed even today. Areas with more hybrid demand are receiving a larger share of the limited supply. Stores investing and expanding are actually getting extra units.

Just be sure you call a dealership FIRST before driving 2+ hours based on what they have on their website.
Thankfully I called first.

waverunr · August 2008

I was responding to post 251
=======================

#251 of 260 Re: Waiting? Yes But... [tiff_c] by beantown Jul 29, 2008 (10:18 am) Save | Reply
Replying to: tiff_c (Jul 27, 2008 1:27 pm)

tiff c:

You're in NH. Why don't you drive down an hour or two to Boch Toyota on route one in MA? They have 10 new priuses IN STOCK and on their lot today. They also have 3 used on the lot today. I always love it when people in other regions speak as if they have knowledge of what other regions have access to from week to week, when obviously they are just guessing based off what they have.

=============================
There are none available anywhere with any packages. Having someone drive 2 hours to find out there are none available to sell is pure BS IMO....

jaxs1 · August 2008

Pricing of the 2010 Insight has been announced as starting in the $18-$19K range and could get up to 70 mpg.

It will definitely be a cross shopped with the new 2010 Prius.
If it gets that kind of mpg, you would have around 800 mile driving range even on a small 12 gallon tank.

coupedncal · August 2008

Could you post a link to news item with pricing and mpg info on 2010 insight?

What to expect from the next model year Prius

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