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Comments
This euro-reporter is stupid beyond belief. Stupid people irk me. But lazy people who don't do the work to investigate a subject before pontificating about it are next to navel lint in the hierarchy of sensient beings.
All the analysis I have seen used $3 a gallon over the entire lifetime of the vehicle. This is a critical flaw that renders the analysis completely meaningless. It is like someone computing investment return by assuming a wonderful 10% gain year over year and completely ignore market conditions, changing tax rates and annual inflation rates.
This is our best insurance against future rising prices of fuel. My personal opinion is that we will see $6/gal before we see $1.50 again. I wouldn't be surprised to be paying $5 within 5 yrs and $6-$8/gal within 8 yrs. $10/gal by the decade of the 20's I'd say is a certainty.
Hybrids, diesels and any combination of the two along with PHEVs will be necessary to allow us to keep using our vehicles. $10/gal in 12 yrs and 'only' a 25 mpg midsizer or a 17 mpg SUV will kill the auto industry.
Yes, there was a mad rush to get the stickers so people can drive in the HOV lane. Those stickers are done, no more new ones will be issued. The MPG requirement was 45 and up so only smaller cars qualified.
I do have one beef with the writer. While I agree that GM's "mild" hybrid really should not be called "hybrid", I disagree that we can suddenly jump to plug-in EV's.
The path to plug-in EV's require political will at the state level and CA is leading the way with prodding by many environmental groups.
First, there needs to be infrastructure support. Either hotels need to provide some sort of charging stations or we will need EV Stations where cars can charge overnight. Problem is, where do they all park over night? Do we use coal power from Nevada? midwest? or do we use solar power plants in souther CA?
Until plug-in batteries can handle a fast charge in 1 hour, drivers have to stop, park, go sleep somewhere while their cars charge up.
So to claim that gas-electric hybrid is "too late" is really naive at best and ignorant at worst.
Gas-electric or diesel-eletric hybrids are necessary stepping stones. Even when EV, as we know it today, is fully available, I still see a high-efficiecncy fuel engine (H? gas? diesel?) that charges the battery to extend the range.
At this rate, $5/gal in 5 years is a definite possibility.
With that said there is one thing that infuriates me about some people that have gone this route. It doesn't apply to you since you already have a PV system but I suspect that you've heard this rational before. Some people justify the cost of a PV systems by comparing it to the price of the gasoline that will be saved. You have to compare the cost of PV electricity with the cost of grid electricity. After all, grid electricity could have just as easily been used to charge your EV or PHEV so any cost analysis has to include this option. It's not like EVs and PHEVs can only be charged off solar electricity.
Now if someone decides not to convert to solar power based on some flawed or narrow reasoning, then I think we need to do our best to overcome whatever flawed reasoning they may have used.
Here's an example. Someone says they are going to install a $8k PV system that will be used for charging an EV. They currently spend around $1,600/year on gas and they will now spend $0. Therefore the PV system will save them $1,600/year and pay for itself in 5 years. Almost sounds reasonable. However this EV could have been charged off the grid for about $300/year, saving you $1,300/year simply by transitioning to an EV and having nothing to do with installing the PV system. The correct way to break down this $1,600/year savings is to assign $300 to the PV system and $1300 to the EV. A lot of people would have said that they are saving $1,600/year by driving an EV and also say they are saving $1,600 by using a PV system to charge this EV which comes out to a total savings of $3,200/year. Obviously something is wrong there.
I have personally considered trying solar again. Many neighbors near my new home have large arrays in their yards. One neighbor about a mile from me has at least 100x100 array. He must be selling back to the utility.
That's a huge PV system that should produce over 1,000 kWh per day. Since the average family doesn't use more than 50 kWh/day in electricity that leaves a lot to sell back. Unfortunately a system that size would cost at least $500k probably closer to a million.
The solar panels today are much better than 10 years ago. Not only has the efficiency gone up but they now have warranties of 20+ years and are expected to last considerably longer than that. The downside is that because there is so much worldwide demand for these PV panels the price hasn't been dropping much in the last couple years despite huge increases in manufacturing capacity.
Did CA's one million roof initiative get passed? If so there are probably some pretty good tax breaks going on for installing one of these systems.
I don't think it makes all that much sense to try and charge an EV directly from a PV system. Simply send this electricity to the grid during the day and reclaim it at night.
quote-
An estimated 187,000 hybrids were sold in the first six months of 2007, accounting for 2.3 percent of all new vehicle sales, according to J.D. Power and Associates. Although a sales slowdown is expected in the second half of the year, J.D. Power is forecasting total sales of 345,000 hybrids for the year, a 35 percent increase from 2006.
-end
We did look at household energy bill savings when planning the PV just like we looked at gas-pump savings when buying our hybrid but money savings were not the only factors. We got the hybrid mainly for its emission. I almost went for a Prius except it could not meet our needs.
The PV was for independence from PG&E, for doing our part as long time Sierra Club members , and it is also part of our "emergency" planning in earthquake country. Whenever a plug-in appears for a reasonable price, we are ready .
That is 10,000 panels and if each is 185W, at 85% efficiency (limited by inverters and CA law if in CA), that is still 1,572,500 W of power! That is a 1000 KWh or 1MW system! Enough to light up a small village.
185W panel is popular in residential installation, some go as low as 145W. I know PG&E gets nervous when residential installation goes beyond 20KW and they really get nervous when it hits 30KW grid-tied because it could impact their transformers and power lines with such a load. For a 1MW system, it would rate as commercial, most likely completely stand-alone.
Anyway, I digress from the EV discussion, sorry!
I'm totally unfamiliar with it.
Our 9KW is grid tied without battery back-up or storage. All excess power feeds to the grid and we trade credits with our power company, PG&E. During peak hours, we get 3W credits for every 1W sent to the grid. During non-peak hours, it is a 1 for 1 trade.
Power companies do not want battery back-up power feeding back into the grid when the grid is down and being repaired. This unexpected juice can injure or kill a worker working on the line. So a properly installed battery power back-up for a grid-tied system will always cut off grid feed before coming on-line.
Battery back-up is also limited so it is not useful to feed any back into the grid. Whatever is not used will just remain in the batteries.
In our case, if we own a plug-in and charge it at night, it will draw power from PG&E. Our day time PV credits will pay for that usage. In the day, it will charge using our PV power. If our PV cannot generate enough to meet demand, it will automatically draw from the grid to make up the difference. Again, we just pay for it using our credits.
Hope this answers your question?
In regard to the tax incentive, I would suggest that it really has almost NO impact on YOUR wallet, when you put it in the context of the tax incentives and breaks given all over the board to big corporations and other entities. There are billions of dollars in tax incentives that are taken advantage of by various entities and special interest groups such as tobacco and big oil. When you take the piddling little tax incentives that are given for hybrid cars (that are dropping to almost zero as we speak) as a percentage of the whole, it probably costs you something less than a penny each tax year.
To be honest the Feds support of alternative technologies is pretty pathetic. The influences of big oil and the automakers (who generally would rather not produce hybrids, and only do so, grudgingly, to increase their fleet overall MPG ratings) and a currently very fiscally conservative (at least when it comes to alternative fuels) government means that very little public funding (tiny slivers of a percentage of the total expenditures) is going to hybrids or similar cars. If I were to pick a battle to fight, I would go after the tax incentives given to big oil to do "research" when their profit margins are well over 100%, and their gross bottom line is in the billions of dollars.
Without getting any more long-winded, if you consider the couple of thousand-dollar tax breaks on a few thousand hybrids in the context of a Federal Budget that is approaching 3 TRILLION dollars (the budget comes out of your pocket, among other places), the cost to you as an individual is miniscule to the point of disappearing.
That is incredibly short-sighted on the Feds' part. As fossil fuels become increasingly scarce, and the demand for them increases, it will not be very long before the high price of these fuels will impact our economy and the economies of the countries around the world. A crappy economy directly results in tax revenue streams that become trickles. Revenue streams drying up means the feds can't do what they're supposed to do. Shock waves go through the economy. Hiways get crappy. Petrochemical companies, shipping companies, travel, power, and everything else gets even more expensive. Soon, the economy craters...
Nope. A piddling little tax incentive for a hybrid car doesn't make much difference to you. If anything, more incentives should be put in place to get people out of their Yukons and into their Prius'..... (BTW, I don't own a Prius..I own a Nissan Hybrid)....
Excellent post.
I do agree on most of your thoughts about corporate welfare. I just don't think adding to it with incentives that rarely reach the buyers pocket are good. It was not difficult to see the pricing of the Prius come down as the incentives were cut. I am one the believes there is no interest in Congress to cut our fossil fuel usage. With every gallon of gas comes another bit of tax money in the till.
Our infrastructure is not being maintained with the gas tax currently being taken in. One of the 77,000 bridges not up to standard gave witness to that this week in Minneapolis. For the government to get serious about using less gas would erode that tax pool even more.
And yes I look for the economy to crater as you put it.
Driving a hybrid will not help our economy in any way that I can think of.
I do hope you got a good buy on your Altima Hybrid. I have not seen one in San Diego yet.
A speeding driver going the wrong way on state Route 52 slammed head-on into a pickup truck driven by an off-duty Border Patrol agent early Friday. Both drivers were killed instantly, officials said.
Before the crash, several drivers called 911 to report the Toyota Prius was heading east, going at least 100 mph in the fast lane, said Highway Patrol Officer Rob Sanchez. The 2007 Prius then collided with the 1995 Chevrolet S-10 pickup.
A woman was driving the Prius, authorities said.
She was identified by the county Medical Examiner Friday afternoon as Shayne Rae Leatherwood, 22, of Poway. The Border Patrol agent was identified as Neil Wilkie Hepburn , 35, a married resident of Chula Vista.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20070907-1527-bn08fatal2.html
Aug-2007 Hy sales were much lower compared to the last few months and even less that Aug-2006
when all other months in 2007 were better than the same months in 2006.
Infact, the share of Hybrids among total vehicle sales is less than 2.0 %
Reason
Prius-2008 is coming in Sep with Standard Edition costing $ 1,200 lesser.
Camry-2008 is coming in Sep with Standard Edition costing $ 1,000 lesser.
Highlander-2008 - new model with Eco Button is coming in Oct.
Expect Sep-2007 to be very good month for Hybrid Sales, also this is the last month with Tax Credit for Toyota & Lexus models.
Still Prius sales increased 25 % in Aug-2007 compared to Aug-2006.
The YTD sales for this year is much higher than the same period of last year which the non-hybrids have declined.
Because hybrids make virtually no noise at slower speeds when they run solely on electric power, blind people say they pose a hazard to those who rely on their ears to determine whether it's safe to cross the street or walk through a parking lot.
"I'm used to being able to get sound cues from my environment and negotiate accordingly. I hadn't imagined there was anything I really wouldn't be able to hear," said Deborah Kent Stein, chairwoman of the National Federation of the Blind's Committee on Automotive and Pedestrian Safety. "We did a test, and I discovered, to my great dismay, that I couldn't hear it."
Hybrids a Hazard
This isn't about saying hybrids are bad, just that thre's something that might need to be addressed as I mention in Dangerous Crossing
The Union of Concerned Scientists is blasting Toyota for opposing a U.S. Senate proposal to raise the CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standard to 35 miles per gallon over the next 13 years.
We chided Toyota for painting itself green by announcing its support of an increase in the federal CAFE standard while failing to let people know that the measure it backs is the weakest of three competing fuel economy increases being considered by lawmakers.
In a letter to its supporters, Concerned Scientists says Toyota seems to be trying to have it both ways and urges them to write the company to tell it that it must choose to be either "an environmentally responsible company willing to support sensible fuel economy standards," or "merely another corporation willing to compromise our fiscal, environmental, and energy security for its own interests."
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/?@@
But let me temper your excitement.....
There is NO WAY that the automakers can make the 35 MPG by 2020. That is what is being opposed.
It's a TECHNOLOGICAL IMPOSSIBILITY when you combine
1. America's car buyers who do not want to pay more for fuel-efficient cars, who, despite the end of the "SUV Era", still want big powerful cars and trucks, and
2. The current technological restraints on making your fleet 35 MPG.
Toyota is joining Detroit in opposing that ridiculous "mandate" because IT CANNOT BE DONE.
In the last 15 years Toyota has been the ONLY automaker to decrease automobile emissions. Ultimately, Toyota is barely trailing Honda in overall fleet fuel economy, and the automaker is on pace to pass Honda. So, why attack the company actually doing MORE than any other automaker on the issue UOCS cares about most?
Even with high mileage vehicles like the Prius available, consumers still continue to demand big powerful cars and trucks. Just increasing the CAFE standards won't do anything to influence demand for larger vehicles. They also responded to Friedman's comments about higher mileage cars being available overseas by reminding him that there is demand driven by high fuel taxes in other countries. Without similar tax changes here to influence demand, CAFE standards will only frustrate buyers by ensuring the vehicles they want are not available.
Toyota DOES want it both ways, and those two ways are this:
1. Keep making and selling more clean cars than anyone else.
2. Meet the HIGH DEMAND in and make money in the truck market in the USA.
The 35 MPG by 2020 is NOT POSSIBLE, so of course it should be opposed. That doesn't "cancel out" everything else Toyota is doing to be the green company it is CONSISTENTLY RATED AS BY INDUSTRY EXPERTS.
Toyota WANTS a new CAFE standard. Just not a impossible one. Read on:
Read the October 3rd entry to become enlightened
Remove the Prius from the Toyota corporate MPG and the HCH from the Honda corporate MPG and check the numbers again. In my opinion, Honda is the only major manufacturer who is serious about keeping all their vehicles as fuel efficient as possible.
Aiming High
Anonymous
Prius sales up 50 % compared to Oct-2006 @ 13,158.
Camry-H up 25 %
Escape/Mariner up 30 %
Rx400h up 12 %
Highlander down 63 % (because 2008 model is bigger & heavier)
Civic is almost same.
While overall auto sales increased 1.2 %, Hybrids increased 30 %.
Gas prices have started creeping up again.
And because it's not here yet.. these sales are mostly the leftover '07s. There might be a couple of '08s that snuck in under the 10-31 wire.
News & Numbers
Chevrolet will limit early distribution of the cars to only 11 key U.S. markets in the Northeast and the West Coast, with none in the Southeast, Deep South or Midwest.
Top Green Cars
Point out the one remaining advantage the Detroit hybrids have.
Beautiful.