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Will the Chevy Volt Succeed?
GM is still planning on the Volt coming to the market in 2010. Will the Volt actually be a practical vehicle or is it going to wind up being another step in the R&D process like the EV-1?
I'm leaning towards it being a step forward but nowhere near the completion of the journey. That will require some breakthrough in battery technology.
You can get a little more background on the current state of the Volt on Alternate Route and one of the newest addtions around here, Green Car Advisor
I'm leaning towards it being a step forward but nowhere near the completion of the journey. That will require some breakthrough in battery technology.
You can get a little more background on the current state of the Volt on Alternate Route and one of the newest addtions around here, Green Car Advisor
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And GM seems to realize that the battery technology is still the biggest hurdle.
It parallels the liquid cooling of the Prius inverters. I remember thinking that particular Toyota solution was a bit over the top, purely from industrial experience with much larger drives. Obviously they were able to meet the harsher conditions of the automobile; from a population of several hundred thousands, failures of their power modules appear to be minimal.
Regarding the VOLT, using an HV battery together with a three cylinder engine is hardly something I would do if low cost were the aim, but this vehicle will provide a respectable entry into the hybrid arena.
Neither power hybrids nor two seaters proved to be volume sellers fior Honda. But the Insight was not promoted. I don't know how universal this was but I have never seen one either on the road or at the dealership. What did they expect ?
Actually even the Prius was not a fixture in the showroon either until 2003 and then only in the main dealership here.
Honda's system needed three things to be successful.
Its introduction would have gone better with the following:
1. A well insulated battery pack.
2. A thermal warming blanket.
3. A trickle charger for the HV battery.
The latter two to have a convenient single plug-in if the car is to be left for an extended period.
Lack of those items, IMO, bought them a heap of dissatisfied customers in the snow belt. Edmunds boards fill with complaints come November. That problem not going away, as those vehicles grow older I think we will be hearing more.
The VOLT'S system is also a scalable system like the Toyota HSD, and offers benefits as I've been propounding in the Advanced Hybrid thread elsewhere. I am sure that with this type of electrical transmission this vehicle is going to generate interest. It was said that the Prius was an enigma in that though its operation was straightforward its working was complex. The Volt on the surface looks simpler for troubleshooting you can seperate the genset from the induction motor transaxle so a mechanic's learning curve will be shorter.
One other thing, $30k is a bit high, I would hope they bring out a stripper version with a 1.3Kwhr battery like the Prius so that the genset can power the traction motor mostly and still have all the advantages of the Prius with a lower price tag. The three cylinder might be replaced with that 900cc 105Hp turbocharged two cylinder small gasoline engine (SGE) that's been just been announced by Fiat for the Panda Aria.
This car will generate traffic in GM showrooms and they could use that right now. And let's hope GM dealers are up to the task and start promoting them.
T2
Chevy VOLT 1 litre 3-cylinder turbocharged gasoline
1500-1800rpm max 3200rpm
12 gal fuel. 53kw generator.
Traction Motor 160HP/236lbs-ft
Battery 16kwhr 320-350v 140kw peak.
max mechanical 120kw
Cont electrical power 45kw,
continuous mech power 40kw
limited duration 120mph top speed
It's possible that there isn't going to be much of a "cure" I suppose. A breakthrough would be finding a way to transfer energy to and from the battery without generating any heat (or significantly less heat), something like that.
I also agree the $30,000 price tag is too high. And if the goal of the Volt is to generate traffic in GM showrooms because they need that right now, then they're doing it for the wrong reason.
(Not for the sake of GM, but for the sake of the environment.)
ICE's would overheat if it wasn't for radiators, fans, and oil. Do you consider that to be treating a symptom? It would be nice if batteries generated less heat because this represents wasted energy, which is why ICE's are so inherently inefficient.
I agree that $30k is a little steep. However if the driver can expect to save $1k/year in gasoline he might start seeing it as comparable to a $25k vehicle. If states and/or the feds offer $3k tax credits, which is likely, then it really is getting into the affordable range.
Telling everyone in 2007 that you'll build a revolutionary car by 2010 means nothing. The Big Three have been playing this game since the 1950s. We're all hip to the scam now.
The Volt project only makes me wonder how advanced electric propulsion technology would ALREADY be if GM had not scrapped the EV-1 project a decade ago. The people who "killed the electric car" are now telling us they're going to build an even better one ..... in a few years.
Yeah, right.
I'll believe it when I see it.
Still a big hurdle or two if Chevy is going to get the Volt to market by 2010
The vehicle was redesigned as noted in Inside Line this week.
The battery technology ...and the supplier/subcontractor hasn't been chosen yet.
GM is floating the trial balloon about leasing the batteries.
..to keep the cost down?
..to ensure against premature failures?
..to ensure against too rapid technological developments?
The whole concept of plug-ins is still of questionable 'utility' for a large segment of the population ( park on the street in any large city? )
Beyond that evertthing is going smoothly...
What's your point? No one is suggesting that everyone currently buying Accords and Camrys will suddenly transition to an EV. I personally have a garage and a place to plug-in an EV. I don't think that makes me all that unique, but I could be wrong. There is no single model of vehicle sold today that accounts for more that 4% of total sales. So apparently you don't have to appeal to everyone to have a marketable vehicle.
The only question regarding the Chevy Volt is whether or not it will meet their 2010 timeline. There is no question in terms of its viability.
Apartments in Anchorage have plug-ins for keeping the car warm. It is a natural for the Volt.
If however a PHEV has to be actually plugged in to get power then for those parking in spots where there is no ready access to a socket the PHEVs have limited utility. A vehicle for the fortunate suburbanites, the inner city dwellers be damned. This is a tricky market conundrum for the vehicle makers. Are these to be seen as a gift to the more fortunate while the less fortunate have to use older less fuel efficient technology?
The same thing can be said about the OVERPRICED hybrids. It sounds to me like you are making excuses for Toyota dropping the ball on the plug in Prius. Toyota touted the plug in hybrids in the EU. I saw so many posts here at Edmund's about the 100 MPG Prius it made me want to puke. Now that GM is pushing forward on a PHEV you are very negative about the practicality. Glad to see you have come over to my side that thinks ALL hybrids are only designed to take our money and give very little in return. EVs will someday help with the energy problems. The Volt may help the GM image as the Prius has done for Toyota. I would not hope for much more than giving GM a green glow.
'kept' just about anywhere, on the street, in a home garage, in a parking lot, in a parking structure, in a field, on the front lawn, etc.
Not in Santee, CA you cannot. any vehicle has to be on pavement or concrete. No parking on gravel pads or dirt is allowed by city ordnance. Vehicles are not supposed to be parked on the street for more than 24 hours. That is not very well enforced.
Or, should I say, make one by 2010 (as promised) and at a cost of under $30K (as promised) that has a useful range ..... you get my drift. Even if they put a base price of $29,900 on the thing, it'll be $35K by the time you drive it away, which makes it cost prohibitive from a gas savings payback standpoint (unlike a hybrid).
Look at the 2008 Malibu -- base price $19,900. But the one in the commercial says $26K in the fine print. That's a lot more than my Civic Hybrid cost, and I know it doesn't get these kind of mpg readings:
http://www.elementownersclub.com/forums/showthread.php?t=40031
http://www.elementownersclub.com/forums/showthread.php?t=37754
http://www.elementownersclub.com/forums/showthread.php?t=35956
My hybrid took $3,000 extra from me (vs. regular Civic price), and gave me $2,100 tax credit, plus $60/month in gas savings. BTW, I financed the entire purchase price @ 2.9%, so we can skip the "If you put that $21,000 in a CD paying 6%" scanario.
Hybrids give plenty in return, and the giving gets more plentiful the higher gas prices go. So far, GM only gives promises of an EV, or PEV, or whatever.
As I've said before, I'll believe it when I see it.
When the automobile was first invented it was definitely a luxury item that only the most fortunate could afford. So would that have been a legitimate reason for not developing automobiles? Regardless the same argument can be made against any product or service that is too expensive for poor people to afford. That's the nature of capitalism.
Before there were automobiles there were probably no gas stations.
Amazingly when there became a need for gas stations they started popping up. I'm sure it's a lot cheaper to install charging stations than a gas station.
As far as limited utility I'm not sure I follow you. The Chevy Volt can be driven without ever being plugged in and, according to GM, you will still be getting 50 mpg because the electricity will be generated by a very efficient 1.0 Liter, 3 cylinder engine that will always operate at its peak efficiency. Not having access to an outlet will prevent you from taking advantage of it's plug-in capability but you will still have a series hybrid that get's exceptional mileage.
I've read a lot of GM's press releases regarding the Chevy Volt. I've yet to see one that "promises" anything in regards to production dates and price. They've simply set targets, which I believe they are sincere in trying to make. If the battery technology is not there by 2010 that is somewhat outside of their control. I do believe that the rest of the vehicle will be ready by that date.
What do you mean by useful range?
What would be GM's motive for promoting this vehicle if they have no intention of producing it?
The utility I was speaking about is that it's of no use to buy a plug-in from any maker unless you can plug it in somewhere. For a huge part of the population this is not an option. What vehicle now do you know that can't be purchased because the power is not available? Yes the Volt has the advantage that it never needs to be plugged in ( purpose then? ) because it can be driven just as a 1.0L gasser or diesel that's powering an electric motor set.
I wouldn't be sure about getting exceptional mileage with the vehicle unless it's using it's plugin capability. If it's being used as a series hybrid and it's running on the ICE all the time inorder to charge the battery in order to drive the e-motors then it's no different than anyother ICE on the road, except that it's also pushing the battery pack without any benefit from it.
The PHEVs are a key part of the future but I'm guessing that it will be 5+ yrs before there's a decent infrastructure for plugin stations ( LT parking facilities, Hotels, etc ).
..which technology? A123 or LG and their partner?
..which company is a better fit for GM with the best prospects for large volume production and longterm suvivability and reliability?
..how to market this innovation? Who's actually going to buy it?
..how to warrant the battery/hybrid system?
..sell or lease the battery pack?
..
And for a huge part of the population it is an option. Regardless, I've read GM's plan is to sell 30,000 units per year initially. That' about 2/10ths of 1 percent of all vehicle sales. Whether or not this vehicle has a large market is an issue that won't be relevant for some time. It will be like most new products. At first you'll have the early adopters that will pave the way for these vehicles becoming more mainstream.
If it's being used as a series hybrid and it's running on the ICE all the time inorder to charge the battery in order to drive the e-motors then it's no different than anyother ICE on the road
The ICE will not be running all the time. It will only kick in whenever the battery falls below a certain level of charge and as soon as this level is brought back up the engine will shut off. I'd guess that the only situation where it might be running all the time would be if you were travelling 80 mph down the highway. This series hybrid setup still has merit even if you never plug it in. I'm sure the electric motors will have a higher power rating than the ICE charging it so you can have a car with considerable power and torque with the high mpg that a small ICE running part of the time can deliver.
Oh, like the Prius, which can go about 2 miles or so on battery only, even if kept below 40 MPH? Batteries can only sustain so much discharge. In practice, I think that a series hybrid with current battery technology may not make as much sense as the HSD.
You've stated previously that that people living in urban areas that have to park on the street wouldn't be able to take advantage of a PHEV. Let's say I agree. Why would this person after hearing about PHEVs ever walk into a dealership thinking that he could take full advantage of this type of vehicle? Your comment implies that the salesman will have to inform this person that he has no place to plug it in as if the customer doesn't already know this. It's an implausible scenario and even if this customer was so dense as to not realize he didn't have a garage I don't believe car salesmen put a lot of effort into talking customers out of buying vehicles. Do you think that when people buy hybrids the salesmen spend much time in pointing out how many years it will take to recover the premium through gas savings?
If I was a car salesman and a customer was reluctant to buy a PHEV because he didn't have a home outlet to recharge from I'd point out that as these vehicles become more commonplace there will certainly be charging stations installed on streets and in parking lots. It was happening in CA during the few years of the EV1. In the meantime he'd be driving a car that got 50 mpg. Now If I was in this car buyers position a PHEV would still have some appeal.
You're correct in saying that a series hybrid does not offer the same efficiency as the HSD primarily because of an additional conversion loss. However a series hybrid does offer the advantage of being simpler, which could theoretically make it cheaper to manufacture. Also as battery technology improved you could upgrade your battery pack to give it more pure EV range and potentially pull the ICE out altogether since it was never used for propulsion to begin with. You can't separate the drives in an HSD in fact the electric motors don't have enough power to be the sole source of propulsion for most driving circumstances. And a series hybrid definitely has an advantage over the ICE because an ICE does not allow for recapturing energy through regenerative braking. I don't think you can regenerate gasoline.
Not really implausible simply because there are people in this society that are looking for every chance to pick a fight or file a lawsuit. 'Why should only the privileged few living in certain privileged areas be afforded the latest and most efficient technology to save money?' "So {fill in manufacturer name] you specifically designed this vehicle knowing that only those living in certain areas having access to plugin capabilities would be able to buy it - and power it up - but those living in other areas would not?"
Now if the manufacturers at least make an honest effort to get plugin capabilities made available all across the country in all sections and to all social strata then at least they will be seen as attempting to develop the infrastructure to assist the whole population. Otherwise there will be complaints, lawsuits and demonstrations about being forced to ride in the back of the bus ( technologically speaking ). It a huge marketing issue to address and overcome.
The whole purpose of the plugin concept is to be able to charge it during offpeak hours ( generally at night as the owner sleeps ). Charging during the day is adding additional load at peak usage time which is counterproductive. It may even be banned. For example plugin capabilities are only activated from 8PM onward. This is another marketing issue to address with the local power companies.
Based upon that rational I guess Honda's going to be facing lawsuits when they start selling fuel cell vehicles to the public in a couple years. First off they'll be too expensive for poor people to afford. That's one lawsuit. Secondly very few areas will have hydrogen refueling stations at that time so these vehicles will primarily be sold in CA. Very unfair, another lawsuit. If you own any stock in Honda Motors it might be time to start dumping it.
The whole purpose of the plugin concept is to be able to charge it during offpeak hours ( generally at night as the owner sleeps ).
Really, that's the "whole" purpose. So I guess reducing oil consumption and transitioning to domestically produced forms of energy serves no purpose. If that's the case then the current hybrids on the market serve no purpose. I agree that charging off the grid at night would be preferrable to charging off the grid during the day. The utilities will control this with pricing and load management switches. There's even trials going on of V2G (vehicle to grid) systems where PHEVs plugged in during the day could be used as a source of backup power for the utilities. In this system the utilities would pay for any power drawn from the cars battery pack and subsidize vehicles that participated in this program. On top of that there's the possibility of charging during the day off solar power. Try refueling an ICE with solar power.
I must point out that you did say "improved" battery technology; my point was that the current state of technology isn't there yet.
"And a series hybrid definitely has an advantage over the ICE because an ICE does not allow for recapturing energy through regenerative braking. I don't think you can regenerate gasoline."
I think there were some early attempts to use a flywheel to capture the kinetic energy for use when starting up the ICE-only vehicles, but I don't think it panned out. I assume you are referring to "ICE only" because the HSD does recapture part of the energy.
I don't know about that. You'd have to define what "there" is. The Prius has a battery pack that costs around $3,000, weighs 100 lbs, can provide maybe 2 miles of all electric driving and allows this vehicle to achieve about 25% better mileage than a Corolla. For a lot of Prius owners that represents the battery technology being "there" for this application.
There definitely are battery packs that exist today that will provide for the 40 mile all electric goal that Chevy is striving for. The main questions are. How much will they cost? How long will they last? How much will they weigh? And what are the answers to these questions that represents the technology being there. For me this battery pack would have to cost less than $8k, last 10 years/150k miles, and weigh no more than 300 lbs. There are currently battery manufacturers claiming to be able to meet the cost and weight criteria. The longevity question won't be answered until these battery packs have actually been in service for this amount of time. Maybe they will last that long but we can't know for sure until they actually do.
My reference to improved battery technology was meant to convey that no matter how good battery technology may be today it is reasonable to assume that it will continue to get better in the future.
What was your argument against Toyota when the following was announced? Were you the driving force that got Toyota to shelve the Plug-in Prius?
Toyota's revelation Tuesday that it will develop a new "plug-in hybrid" - which uses a wall socket at night to charge and relies on an electric motor to go many miles before sipping any gasoline - could presage a major shift in automotive technology, some industry analysts say.
Toyota itself had steadfastly denied any interest in plug-in technology. A senior Toyota engineer told the Monitor early last year the company had little interest.
But gasoline prices have since soared to more than $3 a gallon. On Tuesday, the president of Toyota's North American subsidiary, Jim Press, said the company is looking at developing a plug-in vehicle that can "travel greater distances without using its gas engine." The technology would "conserve more oil and slice smog and greenhouse gases to nearly imperceptible levels".
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0720/p02s01-ussc.html
This is only for the privileged few! Or is this only Toyota vapor ware?
Ultra-Green: Radical 100-MPG Toyota Prius in the Works for 2009
Due in two years as a 2009 model, the next Prius is set to be an evolution, company sources say. The hybrid will retain the same basic 1.5-liter hybrid drivetrain. But Toyota is now on a mission to do two things: drive the economy ratings skyward, and cut the associated costs by 20-30 percent.
http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/News/articleId=109981
Yup, I agree, and I was expressing my opinion - the technology isn't there yet.
Yes now GM is promoting the Volt and there seems to be more interest from the market other than from just a small minority with lots of free cash to spend. But IMHO the technology is right now ( and that's the key phrase ) not ready for prime time.
The battery technology is still to be prefected..it is not yet no matter what GM says. They haven't even tested it on the roads yet for any length of time.
The warranty issue is not resolved.
The pricing issue is not resolved.
The total number of potential buyers I think is still very very small. It's a small segment of the very small number of hybrid buyers.
The infrastructure for powering this technology to the entire population is not there.
All GM's press releases have stated that their 2010 time frame is predicated on the battery technology being ready by then. Most reasonably intelligent people would see that as an admission by GM that the battery technology is not ready "right now". In case you haven't looked at a calendar in a while it is 2007, not 2010. So what's your point?
My whole issue with these right now is that putting a lot of hope into the PHEVs taking the market by storm is a dream. The point about the technology is that this is not something that happens overnight; i.e. 12-31-09 it's unproven and on 1-1-2010 it suddenly proven technology. There is still a lot of validation to be done beginning right now. Are 2 years time enough to make the decision on the supplier, ramp up production and do the necessary validations to put this in widespread usage? I was a direct vehicle maker supplier. We normally had 5-7 years leadtime notice.
But even more important to me are the Marketing issues. I think the technology will be well proven by at least 2015 so that's not a long term issue. But all the other considerations may take far longer than that to resolve/overcome. There are some still ( amazingy :P ) that don't believe at all in anything related to 'hybrid technology'.
I think Lutz is correct to keep the whip cracking every month in order to push his people to hit the 2010 deadline. GM needs this vehicle far more than any of the others do, but widespread success on 1-1-2010 is not guaranteed by any means.
Yes there are, many are much more influential in the auto world than I am. My skepticism is based on the over complexity of the current hybrids and the poor economics they offer. You want an ICE get a diesel. For in town make em all electric. Hopefully the battery technology evolves faster than the rise in the price of oil.
On one side are Toyota Motor Corp. and General Motors Corp. Both have played down all-electric cars in favor of developing gasoline-electric hybrids, though they disagree on the best technology and how quickly it can be implemented.
On the other side are two allied car makers, France's Renault SA and Japan's Nissan Motor Co., as well as Honda Motor Co. The three have expressed skepticism about the economic wisdom of hybrids and are talking up all-electric cars.
Renault-Nissan Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn and Honda President and CEO Takeo Fukui, in separate interviews yesterday, argued that all-electric vehicles make more sense -- environmentally, politically and economically -- than do hybrids, provided there are advances in lithium-ion-battery technology.
In an interview in Tokyo, Mr. Ghosn said the allied French and Japanese companies he leads are working to field significant numbers of all-electric vehicles as early as 2012, in the belief that gasoline-electric hybrids won't satisfy regulators in key markets.
"We think in cities -- Paris and London -- we think cars will be forbidden unless they are zero-emission" vehicles, Mr. Ghosn said. He said Renault-Nissan's plans reflect a judgment that lithium-ion-battery technology will soon be mature enough to power purpose-built electric cars in cities.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119316295232868647.html?mod=sphere_ts
volt update
So I guess they HAVE to make the thing now. But hyping the car two years (or more) before it's even built is a bit much.
Good luck, GM!
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