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Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM To Become #1?

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  • fho2008fho2008 Posts: 393
    Don't have to sell me on that, the car thinks the highway here is the autobahn!
  • delthekingdeltheking Posts: 1,152
    Zero,zilch,nada.
    Same with VW catching up to Toyota.not in 2010.Not in 2015.
    It is a niche brand with horrible reliability not for 1 or 2 years but have been unreliable since I was born ,,I guess,,,,,
    Good to dream though!!!!!!!!!!
    Take a look at Hyundai ,,learn a lesson or 2 on reliabilty,quality etc.First match atleast Hyundai,then think about Toyota!!!Pleeaaasssssee!!!
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 28,900
    Take a look at Hyundai ,,learn a lesson or 2 on reliabilty,quality etc.First match atleast Hyundai,then think about Toyota!!!Pleeaaasssssee!!!

    Hyundai sales are not even close to VW world wide. VW is number 3 soon to be number 2 in the World. VW like Hyundai have improved a lot over the last 5 years. Toyota is the target though not as important as making a profit. VW did not lose money last year as did Toyota. They still are in the black. That is more important than numbers of vehicles sold. GM should have learned that 30 years ago.
  • fezofezo Posts: 9,328
    Yep. Passing GM certainly isn't the problem. Passing Toyota is.

    I sure hope you are right on VW improving - particularly in reliability. If I thought I could count on a a VW being as relaible as a Hyundai (I'm not even making them be Honda or Toyota) I'd buy one in a second!
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,192
    "General Motors will be overtaken by Volkswagen AG this year and fall to the world's third-largest automaker by production volume, market research company R.L. Polk Germany said today."
  • steverstever YooperlandPosts: 40,176
    "We may not see a recovery until the end of this year, or even into next year," Stefan Jacoby, president of Volkswagen of America, said in a speech Wednesday at the New York auto show.

    Still, Volkswagen is sticking with its goal to sell 800,000 vehicles a year beginning 2018, three times its 2008 sales."

    VW's Jacoby Sees Little Recovery Until 2010 (AutoObserver)

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  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,192
    Breaking news...

    TOKYO/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - "Volkswagen may have become the world's top-selling automaker in the first quarter as government incentives have fueled demand in its major markets, overtaking industry giant Toyota.

    The German automaker, with its nine car and truck brands including Audi, Skoda, Seat and Scania, has set a goal of overtaking Toyota and General Motors Corp to be the world's No.1 seller by 2018 -- a target that was initially met with skepticism.

    But a deepening recession and credit crisis have crippled demand in Toyota's top markets, with U.S. sales falling 38 percent and Japan sliding 24 percent in January-March.

    Volkswagen, meanwhile, is benefiting from government stimulus plans for the car industry that have boosted sales in Germany, China and Brazil, which together accounted for 44 percent of group sales last year, making it more likely that it beat Toyota or at least came close.

    Alone in Germany, new registrations of Volkswagen group brands rose 19 percent to about 282,000. Toyota sales grew 43 percent but its market share is just 4.4 percent whereas about every third new car sold in Germany came from the Wolfsburg-based manufacturer.

    'Volkswagen has the luck of being strong in the markets that are currently growing, while Toyota is exposed to those that are collapsing,' said Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, head of the Center for Automotive Research in Gelsenkirchen, adding the quarter's results would be 'close.'

    Toyota, which significantly outsold every other manufacturer in 2008, is not entirely without blame for its volume declines, however. The Japanese carmaker has seen sales fall every month of this year in China, its third-biggest market.

    In the first quarter of last year, the German group delivered 1.57 million vehicles, a third less than Toyota's 2.41 million, which included sales at minivehicle and truck units Daihatsu Motor Co and Hino Motors Ltd.

    Toyota has given no forecast for retail sales, but its latest estimate for shipments for the 2009 first quarter is 1.23 million vehicles, down 47 percent from a year earlier.

    Its first-quarter U.S. sales fell 36 percent, while sales in Japan for the core Toyota brand plummeted 31 percent. The two markets account for just under half of Toyota's global sales.

    Volkswagen on Thursday confirmed projections for a 10 percent fall in global sales in 2009, which would translate to around 1.42 million vehicles in the first quarter if the decline was distributed equally across the entire year.

    'Volkswagen is a big competitor for Toyota,' said Koji Endo, auto analyst at Credit Suisse in Tokyo. 'Audi is strong, Volkswagen is strong, and they're making good use of their small cars.'

    The automakers are expected to disclose their worldwide first-quarter vehicle sales over the next week.

    The battle for top spot is also likely to be intense in coming quarters.

    Toyota is counting on a third-generation Prius hybrid car due for roll-out next month to jump-start sales as more countries offer consumers incentives to buy energy-efficient cars. It will launch 16 new models in Europe this year following a product drought in 2008.

    Volkswagen, for its part, will have a full year of contribution from the remodeled Golf, a perennial best-seller, and the relaunch of its popular Polo compact car.

    Volkswagen has also moved up in stock value ranking, grabbing the No.2 spot behind Toyota, whose market capitalization of $133 billion still outstrips the German carmaker's $100 billion.

    Market research company R.L. Polk Germany predicted this month that Volkswagen would overtake GM as the world's second-largest automaker as the U.S. giant suffers steep declines at home amid fears of bankruptcy.

    (editing by John Stonestreet)
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 28,900
    I had faith in VW. The new Golf TDI will be a Prius killer if I am not mistaken. I look for it to be a HUGE seller in the USA even with our bad market.
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    There will never be a "Prius Killer."

    It will remain a valid vehicle for as long as 'Yota chooses to keep updating it.
  • No way Hose^ Hyundai needs to mate the right engine to their product. VW has a better better cabin also and packages.
    How ever, Hyundai, has a better warranty and nice looking vehicles ,but dull to drive.Step on the gas on a VW GTI or a TDI Golf and you get that Visceral feeling of power.
  • steverstever YooperlandPosts: 40,176
    Ford is trying to give them some competition:

    Ford Fiesta Outsold VW Golf in Europe Last Month (Straightline)

    image

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  • delthekingdeltheking Posts: 1,152
    But atleast you can step on the gas pedal in Hyundai.You cant do that in a VW as it is the dealer`s repair center most of ;) the time!!
    VW can`t match Hyundai`s warranty.Somuch for its reliability.Regarding the interiors the newer Hyundais-Sonata,Azera, and especially Genesis have terrific interiors.
    And the drive of the Genesis is one of the better ones out there.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 28,900
    It will be interesting to see how the Fiesta holds up to the New Golf. Do you know if the Fiesta has a diesel engine in the line? Too bad GM has not tried to keep up like Ford has.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,192
    "It will be interesting to see how the Fiesta holds up to the New Golf."

    The Ford Fiesta will compete with the VW Polo. Since it dropped the Focus hatchback, Ford doesn't have a direct competitor to the Golf. The Focus sedan and coupe are Ford's closest competitors to the Golf and Jetta, I understand that Ford will introduce the next generation Focus some time next year, but I haven't heard whether that will be offered as a hatchback, in addition to the sedan.
  • What's the price of the Fiesta HB in Europe. I think it's a bit more than we can afford here. I wonder how they will package it? :confuse:
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    The Fiesta DOES have a diesel engine in Europe, a 1.4L unit which I believe is one of the most powerful engines available in the Fiesta. Ford has already said they will NOT offer diesel in the U.S. on the Fiesta.

    I can't see Golf TDI killing the Prius, they sell like 5000 Golfs all year long in the U.S. Jetta TDI may be a different story, but there are still an awful lot of people that won't buy diesel, period. At least VW is pretty much cornering the diesel market right from the get-go. What diesels ARE sold will have VW badges on them....

    We have to wait for gas prices to go back up, until then VW won't sell a lot of diesels and Toyota won't sell a lot of Priuses.

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    if VW can do it, but it looks like the ridiculous Routan won't be helping at all:

    VW's Routan isn't moving; future murky

    April 20, 2009 - 12:01 am ET

    The Volkswagen Routan minivan, which arrived in showrooms in September, is selling so slowly that no units have rolled off the assembly line since December.

    "We launched Routan at the worst moment," last fall when U.S. auto sales were plummeting, said Stefan Jacoby, CEO of Volkswagen Group of America.

    ....VW has sold only 5,582 Routans; the factory has produced 22,037. A VW spokesman said the company has not decided when to resume production


    http://www.autonews.com/article/20090420/ANA06/304209960/1078
    (registration link)

    Gee, they have been on sale for roughly six months, which means they have, oh, two YEARS' worth of stock on hand already. I would say the chances of resuming production are slim to nil. :-P

    I love how they say the reason for no sales is they "launched at the worst possible moment". So it couldn't have anything to do with the fact that it is a rebadged Grand Caravan, right?! The company with the goal of tripling sales in less than 10 years ought to be able to sell a van in the States that isn't a rebadged Chrysler.....

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • fho2008fho2008 Posts: 393
    I agree, but rebadging was supposed to be faster than starting from scratch. Look at it this way...minimal investment, not selling, they can move on. They sure do advertise em though, see ads all the time for em.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 28,900
    Sadly, VW has a line of great vans in the rest of the world. I am sure that some kind of regulations got in the way. I see their diesel vans all the time with Mexico license plates. The knockoff from Chrysler is WAY over priced.
  • larsblarsb Posts: 8,204
    Gary says, "VW has a line of great vans in the rest of the world. I am sure that some kind of regulations got in the way."

    No regs got in the way.

    VW just does market research and determines what USA buyers want and don't want.
  • fezofezo Posts: 9,328
    Amazingly, one of those 5,582 sold is around the corner from me. All the more unusual in that there's not a VW dealer for 30 miles...
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 28,900
    I guess they screwed up. Nobody wants a cheapo Chrysler mini van with a VW emblem on the front. No reason why they could not have brought their Eurovan with the 2 L TDI engine. Unless they are just too expensive for the cheap US buyer. Vehicles in the EU are generally much more expensive than they are here. We want cheap junk and the automakers provide cheap junk.
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    provoke me to wonder aloud: can VW overtake the world's biggest automakers in sales volume while it continues to totally fail to take the (currently) world's biggest auto market seriously?

    If as gagrice suggests, Americans want cheap cheap cheap above all else, will VW be able to step up to the plate? Cheap cheap cheap isn't exactly their style after all. And a lot of their global products aren't well suited to the American market, hence the utterly failed Routan experiment.

    Will Tiguan set the streets afire in the small crossover segment? What will they do about the fact that Passat sales have dropped off to virtually nil?

    Or does the U.S. cease to matter in VW's grand scheme? Can it afford to just mostly ignore the Americans?

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,192
    "provoke me to wonder aloud:..."

    China has overtaken the U.S. as the world's biggest market, and VW is strong there.

    "does the U.S. cease to matter in VW's grand scheme? Can it afford to just mostly ignore the Americans?"

    I see where you're coming from. As you know, however, VW is building a new manufacturing plant in Tennessee, where it will build cars that are designed for the American market. Now, I'm not predicting whether this initiative will succeed, but it demonstrates that, (1) VW is willing to risk investing in the U.S., despite their failure in Pennsylvania in the '80s, and, (2) the company has recognized that to become a top tier player in the U.S., it needs to align it's vehicles with U.S. tastes.

    Also, like the domestic brands, VW has recognized the importance of reliability, and is striving to become competitive with the top Japanese brands on this front. Of course, the jury is still out on whether they'll succeed on this front, but in the meantime it seems as though Toyota's ratings on reliability have slipped some recently.

    The Japanese have proven themselves to be formidable competitors, but, then, so was GM for many years.
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    Reliability is one thing, but VW's midsize sedan has a starting price above $25,000 doesn't it? The only ones my local dealer has in stock are all "Komfort" trim sedans without options. I don't know where Komfort is in the grand scheme of Passat trims, but all those cars had an MSRP of $29,7. That's a hard sell for VW dealers what with 6-8 other great or good family sedans on the market for 1/3 less money.

    So back to gagrice's "cheap cheap cheap" point, how will they ever boost sales with such expensive vehicles? Even if they DO start to build them here? I note that VW's crossovers are also very non-competitive on price, including the newest one, the Tiguan.

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,192
    You're right, Passats are pricey. Insofar as VW SUV prices are concerned, since I've never owned an SUV and have no plans to buy one, I defer to your opinion on these.
  • gagricegagrice San DiegoPosts: 28,900
    I note that VW's crossovers are also very non-competitive on price, including the newest one, the Tiguan.

    Not sure what you compare the Tiguan to. They are compared to the Acura RDX here on Edmund's and are not as expensive. You can get one stripped in the low $20k range. The Jetta starts at $17k. What exact model do you think has them beat price to content? And the Japanese have nothing to compete with the Jetta Sportwagen TDI. Not even close.
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    Not sure what you compare the Tiguan to. They are compared to the Acura RDX here on Edmund's and are not as expensive.

    OK, so VW wants to be niche like Acura is? Because Acura, tiny to begin with, saw its sales fall 30% last year, and that was WITH a full year of RDX production, which was then a new model.

    If VW wants to be niche, then they are doing just fine. In which case, I would assume they ARE going to ignore the U.S. in their quest for world domination. So then the question becomes, can they really afford to do this?

    I do agree that not only will the American market decline in the decades to come, but also its prominence will as other 10-million-plus markets emerge, including India and China. So perhaps ignoring the U.S. is not a bad long-term move for VW, but in the 2018 timeframe I think the U.S. will continue to be a very important market for carmakers. It IS 2018 by which time VW hopes to triple sales, correct?

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,192
    But, nippononly, why do you insist that VW is ignoring the U.S. market, when they're building a plant in Tennessee and introducing new models, such as the Polo? What am I missing?
  • nippononlynippononly SF Bay AreaPosts: 12,687
    Well, for the most part VW models are priced 20% or more above those of competing mainstream brands. Gagrice was saying no, we shouldn't compare them to a mainstream brand, we should compare them to a near-lux brand. So OK, if they are going to be a near-lux brand then they should know that near-lux brands don't have high sales, and they won't be tripling their sales any time soon taking THAT approach.

    If they DO want to compete on volume with Toyota, Ford, Honda, etc, then the prices need to come way down. Again, as gagrice said, Americans want cheap cheap cheap in their cars and trucks. That's just the American market for you.

    So VW can't have it both ways, they need to pick one course or the other. I'm amenable to the notion that ignoring the American market could be beneficial to their growth in the long term, but not by 2018.

    2013 Civic SI, 2009 Outback Sport 5-spd (stick)

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