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The Current State of the US Auto Market

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    fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,169
    I've seen a handful of ILX here. I don't care for the design, too invisible and Civic-y for me, not premium looking to my eyes. I am seldom a fan of upswept C-pillars. Reminds me of the tricks Honda has played (successfully) on Canada.
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    uplanderguyuplanderguy Member Posts: 16,107
    To answer your question, that number would be all 'old' Impalas.
    2024 Chevrolet Corvette Stingray 2LT; 2019 Chevrolet Equinox LT; 2015 Chevrolet Cruze LS
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    dieselonedieselone Member Posts: 5,729
    I've seen a handful of ILX here. I don't care for the design, too invisible and Civic-y for me, not premium looking to my eyes.

    I agree. I didn't like it all from the pics I've seen, finally seeing one in person moved it up a notch. That's not saying much BTW;)
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    dieselonedieselone Member Posts: 5,729
    edited March 2013
    I wonder where all of the Impala fleet sales are going to go when the new model comes out. Malibu? Or a combination of the two or maybe the Taurus?

    Not that all fleet sales are bad. Seems the rental fleet sales do the most damage to resale as they turn cars over much faster than corporate fleets these days. Most people I know with company cars keep them longer compared to years ago.

    My wife used to get a new company car every 18 to 24 months, now it's basically every 4 years.
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    uplanderguyuplanderguy Member Posts: 16,107
    I haven't read or heard this anyplace, but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest to see "Impala Classic" models still being sold to only rental fleets.
    2024 Chevrolet Corvette Stingray 2LT; 2019 Chevrolet Equinox LT; 2015 Chevrolet Cruze LS
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    dieselonedieselone Member Posts: 5,729
    I haven't read or heard this anyplace, but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest to see "Impala Classic" models still being sold to only rental fleets.

    I haven't read anything about that either and I agree. I'd think the current Impala sells in enough numbers to fleets to justify production. OTOH, I have no idea how profitable those fleet sales are.
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    uplanderguyuplanderguy Member Posts: 16,107
    From the numbers posted above, it looks like Chrysler not just leads in that segment, but spanks everybody else.
    2024 Chevrolet Corvette Stingray 2LT; 2019 Chevrolet Equinox LT; 2015 Chevrolet Cruze LS
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    ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Those are February sales from what I can tell

    Correct, I didn't compile the data but YTD would be more useful as it smooths out short-term spikes in demand.
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    ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest to see "Impala Classic" models still being sold to only rental fleets.

    A great idea, IMHO. Fleets just want a low cost product they can turn over quickly.

    The new one will cost a bunch more. If they can work out producing both side-by-side, or at different plants, it would be win-win for GM and fleet managers.
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    ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    looks like Chrysler not just leads in that segment, but spanks everybody else

    Yeah, Honda must be embarassed to lose to Chrysler's 2nd best selling van.

    Having said that, I bet a lot of those are to fleets. Those are the official car of Orlando.
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    fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,169
    I suppose it could be a decent car with a giveaway lease, which they might end up offering.
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    jpp75jpp75 Member Posts: 1,535
    I can't believe the old Impala outsells the new Malibu. I get they are mostly fleet sales, but still surprised the number is so low for the Malibu.
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    circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    Malibu is about 8% off previous 3 year average. Looks like the bad press put a small dent in the hood! YTD it slips by the Impala.

    Jan + Feb Sales
    2010- 31,589
    2011 - 33,194
    2012 - 34,663
    2013 - 30,640

    YTD 2013
    Camry = 63,167
    Accord = 51,923
    Fusion = 50,274
    Altima = 49,189
    Malibu = 30,640
    Impala = 29,577
    Sonata - 29,254
    Optima = 24,447 (Sonata/Optima combined is #2)
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    dieselonedieselone Member Posts: 5,729
    edited March 2013
    Malibu is about 8% off previous 3 year average.

    That paints a rosy picture since the previous 3 years were not nearly as strong as they are now For comparison, the Fusion YTD is up about 33% vs. it's 3 year average YTD.

    I'm not surprised at all in regards to the Malibu's sales woes. The car looks boring to me. It simply doesn't stand out from the crowd. GM has done a pretty good job with recent product, but the Malibu is a definite miss. It was a huge mistake to rush this model to market.
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    uplanderguyuplanderguy Member Posts: 16,107
    edited March 2013
    Are the Optima and the Sonata the same car, the way that an Equinox and Terrain are...same platform, wheelbase, engine, and trans, built in the same plant? To me they don't look alike, but I haven't tried very hard to go out of my way and look at either. ;)
    2024 Chevrolet Corvette Stingray 2LT; 2019 Chevrolet Equinox LT; 2015 Chevrolet Cruze LS
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    jpp75jpp75 Member Posts: 1,535
    The Malibu isn't even close to the other big players in this segment. That has to be disappointing, I knew they botched the launch but not this badly.
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    dieselonedieselone Member Posts: 5,729
    Are the Optima and the Sonata the same car, the way that an Equinox and Terrain are...same platform, wheelbase, engine, and trans, built in the same plant?

    I know they share powertrains and share the same wheelbase. So assume they are built off the same platform. I don't think they are made in the same plant.
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    circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    Same platform, different plants: #2 in sales. :shades:

    Regards,
    OW
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    uplanderguyuplanderguy Member Posts: 16,107
    edited March 2013
    Are there platform mates to the Camry and Accord and Altima--cars with the same wheelbase and platform, built by the same manufacturer--that should supplement their numbers, too?

    It's funny, there were folks here who told me that the Equinox and Terrain were two different vehicles, even though they share the same platform, are built in the same plant, have the same engine and trans, and were introduced at the same time!

    With the same wheelbase, same platform, same engine, and same trans, one would expect some economies of scale for the Optima and Sonata to be built in the same plant.
    2024 Chevrolet Corvette Stingray 2LT; 2019 Chevrolet Equinox LT; 2015 Chevrolet Cruze LS
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    dieselonedieselone Member Posts: 5,729
    With the same wheelbase, same platform, same engine, and same trans, one would expect some economies of scale for the Optima and Sonata to be built in the same plant.

    The Sonata and Elantra are built in the same plant. I don't think they have the capacity to also build the Optima. I believe the Kia plant in Georgia builds both the Optima and Sorento.

    Are there platform mates to the Camry and Accord and Altima--cars with the same wheelbase and platform, built by the same manufacturer--that should supplement their numbers, too?

    I don't know about the Altima, but I think the Accord and Acura TL are related, along with the CrossTour.

    In my opinion, the Sonata/Optima are about as similar as the Equinox/Terrain. I don't think one is decidedly upmarket from the other. I guess a case could be made for Sonata/Optima being more similar as they essentially have the same base price where as the Terrain has a base price that is about $2k higher than the Equinox.
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    uplanderguyuplanderguy Member Posts: 16,107
    edited March 2013
    I think one following the other down the assembly line would make them pretty similar. I don't know, but I'd bet the Elantra and Sonata don't come down the same line as the Equinox and Terrain do...but I could be wrong.

    Also...has Kia already stopped building their minivan? When someone posted sales for Feb. the other day, that product had sales in the 300's--yes, the three-hundreds. Makes the Malibu look like the original VW Beetle in sales by comparison. I would have to believe that the Kia minivan has been discontinued and sales are coming just from dealer inventory, is that correct or not?
    2024 Chevrolet Corvette Stingray 2LT; 2019 Chevrolet Equinox LT; 2015 Chevrolet Cruze LS
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    dieselonedieselone Member Posts: 5,729
    I'd bet the Elantra and Sonata don't come down the same line as the Equinox and Terrain do...but I could be wrong.

    I'd doubt it too, those are two completely different cars.

    I think Kia's minivan is all but done, I don't know.
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    busirisbusiris Member Posts: 3,490
    The Altima uses Nissan's "D" platform, which appears to be shared among several vehicles...

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_D_platform
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    steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    There's platform and drivetrain sharing, and there's twinned vehicles.

    I drive a twinned minivan. The engine is sort of shared with the Pathfinder (but changed to make the van's engine non-interference).

    Seems like twinning is on the downswing.
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    uplanderguyuplanderguy Member Posts: 16,107
    edited March 2013
    I guess in my mind, 'platform' doesn't necessarily equate to 'same wheelbase'...or vice-versa. I think the Equinox and Terrain are 'twins' that GM did a better job of styling-distinguishing one from the other, than they did years back. For example, I wouldn't have called the Grand Prix and Impala 'twins', although I think they were both the same 'platform'. I know, in the end, it's all semantics anyway though.

    Similarly, to me, the Silverado and GMC Sierra are 'twins' although, again, they look more different than they have in past years.
    2024 Chevrolet Corvette Stingray 2LT; 2019 Chevrolet Equinox LT; 2015 Chevrolet Cruze LS
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    circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    edited March 2013
    GM = 160,156
    Ford = 126,825
    C = 96,093
    Total US = 383,074

    Toyota = 190,199
    Honda = 114,886
    Nissan = 116,292
    Hyundai/Kia = 133,260
    Subaru = 37,357
    VW = 53,364
    Audi = 14,027
    BMW = 22,128
    MB = 28,875
    Total Foreign = 710,388
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    boomchekboomchek Member Posts: 5,516
    Yeah Optima and Sonata are virtually identical except for the body style and interior.

    In fact when I worked at Hyundai and made a comparison chart for both cars they had identical interior specs like headroom, legroom, etc... so I think even the seat mounting points are the same in both.

    2016 Audi A7 3.0T S Line, 2021 Subaru WRX

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    steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited March 2013
    Mazda has sold 46,255 cars YTD. (prnewswire)

    Volvo, MINI (under BMW perhaps?), Jag are missing too.
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    circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666

    In the first part of this series, we looked at Dan Akerson’s problematic relationship with the truth, focusing on the gap between his stated intentions and his actions. Akerson is hardly the only example of an auto executive to indulge in personal myth-building or ego-driven dissembling. Analysts, employees and shareholders can forgive all kinds of personal shortcomings in a chief executive so long as he has a clear plan for success and the proven ability to get results. Unfortunately for GM, Dan Akerson brings nothing to the table in this regard that might outweigh his negatives.

    The depth of Akerson’s strategic failure is nothing short of stunning, encompassing almost every element of GM’s global footprint.

    Sysiphean Futility

    We were made to believe that GM was saved by the government. In reality, it was the American automobile industry that was saved from certain annihilation by foreign carmakers, and we should thank the government for it. In truly Washingtonian fashion, they win the war and lose the peace by putting the American car industry in the hands of an utter amateur. The man in charge of a car company must be a strategist and tactician of the caliber of Alexander the Great, leading from the front, knowing when to dismiss his advisers, knowing when to do the unexpected, having a sixth sense for a sudden opening in the ranks of the opposition, intuitively knowing how to ruthlessly exploit a weakness.

    Akerson was put at the helm of GM by politicians who know even less about the car business than an Akerson. As the politicians sell their shares in GM and leave, they should take their man with them. If Akerson is replaced with a CEO worthy and capable of guiding GM, the stock will surely bounce, making the exist less painful.
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    circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    Mazda sold 27,710 cars YTD. The rest were not cars. :)

    I didn't want to break the 750K mark. :blush:

    Regards,
    OW
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    uplanderguyuplanderguy Member Posts: 16,107
    The comments below the blog are at least as interesting as the blog!

    BTW, he needs a proofreader...'exit' isn't spelled 'exist'.
    2024 Chevrolet Corvette Stingray 2LT; 2019 Chevrolet Equinox LT; 2015 Chevrolet Cruze LS
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    ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I think Kia's van went out of production a while ago, so these are left overs.

    I liked the KV7 concept, which should replace it, though it is more of a 3 row crossover like the Flex.
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    ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    edited March 2013
    If we exclude trucks, domestic's biggest strength, then...

    Well, to be honest you're leaving out most of the profitability.

    Conversely, if we focus ONLY on trucks the numbers get a bit embarrassing for the import brands.

    Ford - a billion
    GM - a billion
    C - half billion
    Everyone else - five
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    circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    Exactly! Domestic makes trucks people want to buy....not cars! ;)
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    circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    2013 YTD Domestic Car Sales = 327,906
    2013 YTD Import Car Sales = 770,149

    2013 Domestic Truck Sales = 653,858
    2013 Import Truck Sales = 434,076

    Total Domestic = 981,764
    Total Import = 1,204,225

    Guess that profitability doesn't go that far anymore. ;)
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    circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    The comments below the blog are at least as interesting as the blog!

    Agreed. I paricularly like this one:

    “Akerson was put at the helm of GM by politicians who know even less about the car business than an Akerson”

    Actually, he was appointed President and CEO (after a strong personal lobbying campaign, apparently) by the Board. Of GM’s 15 Directors, 11 have private sector backgrounds. Whatever Akerson’s flaws may be, he was appointed by business people, not by politicians.

    “The US market is projected to supply a huge percentage of global profits over the next several years, making it a major priority for every automaker. Thanks to the bailout, GM almost can’t help but make money in its home market”

    GM’s 2012 financials show an operating loss of $3.2 billion on a global basis. Also according to GM, the pre-tax loss (a somewhat different measure, but the only one available) in Europe was $1.8 billion. Assuming that China is profitable, and South America (much smaller business, unlikely to make a big difference in either direction) is close to break-even, then GM must have made an operating loss in North America. Perhaps somewhere in the $500 million-$1 billion range.

    The biggest change was in gross margin (revenues minus the direct materials, factory and factory labour cost of making what you sell), which GM does not break out by segment. Gross margin plummeted from 12.4% in 2011 to only 6.7% in 2012.

    GM has also been unable to arrest its declining US market share. In the 2008-2012 period, it lost roughly 1% per year of share(up from an average loss of about 0.75% in the period 1976-2008). If present trends continue – which I am the first to acknowledge is should never be viewed as certain, or even probable, for betting purposes – Ford will outsell GM in the US in 2014 or 2015.

    On top of that, GM’s balance sheet shows that cash and cash equivalents fell by $5 billion in 2012.

    All in all, the numbers show GM’s present position as something that should have senior management working in crisis mode. How much of this is Akerson’s doing is open for discussion, but largely moot – if it happens on his watch, he takes responsibility for it.

    I have no love or hate for GM, but I know people who depend on it for their livelihood. For their sake, I hope the company survives and prospers. I have also seen, over the course of a long career in executive management and professional services, that it takes a whole lot of people, working hard and smart, to make a company prosper, but a few highly-placed dunderheads can do enormous damage. My fear is that GM’s executive management is sleeping its way into Bankruptcy 2 in much the same way that it did into Bankruptcy 1.

    Pretty balanced. :)
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    uplanderguyuplanderguy Member Posts: 16,107
    Yes, that one remark is balanced, unusual on a blog. The other comments about competitors being no better in certain areas are enlightening as well.
    2024 Chevrolet Corvette Stingray 2LT; 2019 Chevrolet Equinox LT; 2015 Chevrolet Cruze LS
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    ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    I'd like to see that broken down by country, or at least by continent (European, Asian, North American).

    Funny what constitutes a "truck" nowadays, isn't it? I'm guessing that includes vans and crossovers.
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    circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    Funny what constitutes a "truck" nowadays, isn't it? I'm guessing that includes vans and crossovers.

    Yes, the official designation is "Light Trucks". As you can see, the imports are doing quite well relative to the bread and butter area for the domestics. Porsche and now even Bentley want those extra profits! ;)
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    uplanderguyuplanderguy Member Posts: 16,107
    Those numbers do not appear to mesh with the Automotive News quote of less than three months ago that said that the American makers have 92% of the truck market.
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    ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    They must have meant pickup trucks specifically.
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    circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    They must have meant pickup trucks specifically.

    Exactly. The US have the lion share of PUT's but Light Trucks include all of the SUV's/CUV's.
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    berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    I dunno, I've rented some newer designed GM vehicles lately and thought by and large they were pretty decent. I think they've just got to keep up the improving designs and augment it with reliability that is closer to the Asians and some of the recent data suggests they are starting to get there on their newer platforms and models. For example, an Equinox is much quieter, roomier and more comfortable than say a CRV. Plus it has full sized seat cushions. Many Asian models have short seat bottoms and tight headroom. I also think that even Toyota tends to have too much road noise lately. I think the new Traverse is also pretty nice, while the Explorer is kind of cramped with a noisier drivetrain, but both of them seem nicer to me than a Pilot or Highlander. Don't know what will happen to the latter two though when their new 2014 models come out - they may take another leapfrog, or not? Second GM BK - I doubt it unless something terrible and unexpected happens. I think it's more likley that if the economy slows down that some of the marginal transplants like Mazda disappear from the US market.
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    andres3andres3 Member Posts: 13,729
    GM has an image problem though, I mean, who wants to be associated or part of a grand epic failure?

    I mean, sales were really starting to decline rapidly when people started to see the end of the Big 3, that is, until Uncle Sam said they'd cover the warranty costs for a bankrupt GM or Chrysler.
    '15 Audi Misano Red Pearl S4, '16 Audi TTS Daytona Gray Pearl, Wife's '19 VW Tiguan SEL 4-Motion
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    berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    GM does have an image problem and Ackerson has admitted it. They just have to keep improving to overcome it. I know this is affected by my personal vehicle preferences and physique, but even though Ford currently has the glow from avoiding a bailout, I'm generally finding the overall ride and experience better in the newer GM models than the newer Ford ones. I'm just not excited about the new Escape or Explorer that I recently rented. They may have some neat lipstick, but overall the new Equinox and Traverse seemed nicer overall rides to me. I haven't driven the new Fusion and I'm not excited by the Malibu. The new VW's don't do much to generate any interest from me, and I'm not really looking to spend the dough on an Audi, although they are probably a bargain compared to a MB or BMW. I guess the back of my mind keeps reminding me that the higher the sales price, generally the more money dropped on depreciation over it's life.
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    circlewcirclew Member Posts: 8,666
    Well, here are the top ten in resale value to relate to the depreciation point you made.

    One Jeep and the rest imports. Domestics loose more as a rule (developed over time with the bad business model). :)

    Best Resale Value
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    ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    Some of those are surprising, particularly the low volume ones. Maybe it's because they're not competing with ex-rentals on the used market.

    Lexus LX? Really? Lux values usually drop like rocks.
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    dieselonedieselone Member Posts: 5,729
    Lux values usually do drop, but I think people who buy a Land Cruiser/LX tend to keep them a while. Plus they sell in very low numbers so you don't see them used often.

    Even Sequoias seem to hold their values well despite low sales.
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    berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    I agree that domestics tend to have lower resale percentages and you need to account for that in your purchase price. However, I was talking in terms of total dollar cost rather than percentage. Even with a 10% lower depreciation percentage rate, the total depreciation dollar outlay on a $50K vehicle is likely to exceed that of a $30K domestic by more than a few bucks on most models.
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    ateixeiraateixeira Member Posts: 72,587
    One big factor is resale is stated at a % of MSRP.

    So if you pay full MSRP for Car A, yet you get thousands discounted off Car B, then B is likely a better deal even if resale is lower.
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