The Current State of the US Auto Market

andre1969 · August 2013

I think the MSRP of my 2012 Ram was around $26,200, including freight. I bought it on September 23 of last year, and it came out to $20,751 out the door.

So that's about a 20.8% discount, if you do OTD/MSRP. If you back out taxes and dealer processing, I think it came down to about $19,300. I also got them to add in a third key fob and sliding rear window, but don't know how to factor in those costs. I think they said a fob was normally about $180. Would $220 sound reasonable for a sliding rear window?

Anyway, let's say that knocks it down to $18,900, including freight. Now suddenly we're down to about 27.8% off of MSRP ($18900/$26200).

Hmm, maybe I should go back in about a month, see if they have any leftover Chargers? :-)

stever · August 2013

82, 84.7, 84.1. Sounds like rounding errors. Reminds me of the long JD Power laundry list where the number of complaints between best and worse is "insignificant".

circlew · August 2013

Yep, just like GM management ignored the drop in market share...."insignificant".

Chevy received a 79. When does "rounding" fail to be an excuse?

stever · August 2013

Let me know when you see dozens broken down on the side of the freeway. Or even one.

uplanderguy · August 2013

Remember the guy from Jersey who said flatly here once, "I counted ten Chevrolets on the side of the road broken down today on the way to work."

As if he were keeping a tally sheet in the car.

This latest survey apparently includes things like the dealer experience...important, I admit. But it's interesting to note that the JDP survey showed higher marks for Chevrolet in 'initial quality' than many much-beloved imports folks talk about here.

I care most about my personal experience. And until I get treated shabbily by my car or my dealer, I'll be back...just not for a while I'm afraid...Miami Univ. now and another kid in school in two years.

circlew · August 2013

OK and I'll also keep you posted on market share.

GM is up 2/10 of a percent up from their historical market share low....but that's probably "rounding" in your book.

Roger Smith, GM's Chairman and CEO from 1981 to 1990, liked to say that he was doing neither as well as his friends suggested, or as poorly as his enemies charged. The same is true of GM today.

BTW, we should't post about Ford MyTouch while Emortorcons are on the blink! Just an observation.

Mr_Shiftright · August 2013

Bingo--I'd throw that 'survey' right out the window based on standard margins of error.

stever · August 2013

They probably defined Fiat owned Chrysler as a domestic car company too.

xrunner2 · August 2013

J.D. Power Initial Quality Study (IQS) gave 26 Awards in 2013 as follows:

Of 13 for Awards for suvs, cuvs, vans and pickups, 7 were American brands, 6 were foreign brands.

Of 13 Awards for cars, 10 were for foreign brands, 3 for American brands.

uplanderguy · August 2013

Are you going to print the list that shows make by rating? I'm not talking a specific model here or there.

andre1969 · August 2013

okay, somebody smack some sense into my head but...

the dealer I bought my Ram from has a 2013 Avenger SE, fairly basic, but it does have the V-6, for a listed price of around $14,600. Now, I know that's not going to include freight, and to get that price they're going to slap every incentive on there, whether I actually qualify or not.

I know the Avenger is sort of a poster child for what's wrong with the US auto industry (even if it's Italian-owned now). Just about every other car in its class is much better. But it's not that it's a HORRIBLE car, just a mediocre car. Still, at that price I'm kinda tempted.

It's EPA-rated at 19/29, which also isn't so hot for this class of car. But, it's still better than anything currently in my fleet. And it can get by with 87 octane, whereas my Buick takes premium.

I think my biggest fear would be that I bought it, based on price, but then a few months later would start regretting it, and kicking myself for settling for something so low-rent. For comparison, the cheapest Charger they have has an internet price of about $23K.

lemko · August 2013

I wouldn't do it. The Avenger does seem a bit too low-rent and probably Mopar's least desirable vehicle. It would be like settling for the plain Jane girl with some emotional issues versus the hottie with the cool personality.

uplanderguy · August 2013

At that price I'd do it, and put the difference into improving and enjoying your old cars!

A small side benefit (IMHO)--when I browsed Avengers a few years ago, I was surprised at how 'domestic' they really were (window sticker).

anythngbutgm · August 2013

Wow, 14,600? That's cheaper than a bare bones Corolla.

That sounds like a good deal to me.

uplanderguy · August 2013

That's cheaper than the nearest Chevy dealer is selling Sonics for.

Are they new at that price? I mean, I know it's a 2013, but one wonders if they were rentals or something. Still, great price.

Mr_Shiftright · August 2013

I rented one of those recently and there was nothing really disagreeable about it. There's really nothing in that price range that i can think of that would outshine it by any large margin.

uplanderguy · August 2013

I know I'm outnumbered here, but I use a daily driver for just that. I'd much rather put my enjoyment money into an old car. If that's a new Avenger, seems like an outstanding price.

suydam · August 2013

And I bet it will drop in depreciation like a rock, so if you regret it, you'll be out. Buy cheap get cheap, but if you're fine with that . . .

andre1969 · August 2013

It's new at that price, but I have a feeling that there's at least one $1000 rebate in there that I wouldn't qualify for. That's what happened with my 2012 Ram, although I don't remember what the rebate was. And then there's freight, which is $995.

So, that $14,600 would be more like $16,600, plus tax and tags. And Maryland taxes rebates, so I guess it would be around $18K, tops, out the door?

In contrast, I think my uncle's Camry, which is an LE, was around $22K out the door. His Camry is a nicer car (although no beauty queen), but just has the 4-cyl engine.

And yeah, it's cheap. But it's still going to be a bigger expense than a 2000 Park Ave that's bought and paid for. And hasn't had a mechanical failure in almost two months. :-) I think I'm just daydreaming out loud right now.

FWIW, here's the link if anybody's curious:
http://ourismanchrysler.com/Baltimore-DC/For-Sale/New/Dodge/Avenger/2013-SE-V6-S- - ilver-Car/19610431/

I just noticed, they also have a stripper Ram for sale, for $17,300...
http://ourismanchrysler.com/Baltimore-DC/For-Sale/New/Ram/1500/2013-SLT-White-Tr- uck/15896257/

Almost looks like it could be my truck, except that it has the smaller, uglier (IMO) steel wheels. I think they're 17x7, where mine are a 17x8 upgrade, but still steel. And it has the 3.6 V-6, where I have the Hemi. But, I've been griping about its economy lately...

anythngbutgm · August 2013

Traction and Stability, MP3 hookup, heck I even like the wheels.

Only thing I would wonder about would be the performance tires, might be ones that will wear in 20k miles...

Otherwise, for a commuter it seems like a great find.

andre1969 · August 2013

Yeah, it is hard to beat at that price. And while on one hand, I don't like the idea of rewarding the auto makers for building mediocrity, is it really such a bad thing, if you can get them this cheap?

I guess if they're losing money on every single one they build, it is.

uplanderguy · August 2013

"I guess if they're losing money on every single one they build, it is.:

That's their problem, not yours.

andre1969 · August 2013

It really does amaze me though, that with all the technology put into the cars, they can sell them so cheap these days. I always get a kick out of running these numbers through inflation calculators.

Let's say that Avenger would cost me $18,000, out the door (tax, tags, everything). In 1957 dollars, that would be a whopping $2165. For comparison, my DeSoto had a base MSRP of around $3085 for the hardtop coupe, but as equipped, probably stickered for around $3800.

Even going back to 1999 (I use that year because that's when I bought my Intrepid), the $18K would come out to around $12,387. In comparison, my Intrepid was $22,389 out the door, although $1200 of that was for an extended warranty that I ended up never having to use. And, I bought the Intrepid towards the beginning of the year, rather than as a leftover.

That Avenger would have tons of safety and convenience stuff that cars didn't have in 1957, but even since 2000, there have been leaps and bounds. For instance, my Intrepid didn't have alloy wheels, ABS, or traction control. It only had two airbags up front, whereas that Avenger probably has them up the wazoo. It probably crash-tests better than my old Intrepid as well, which was only rated Fair, I think (prone to foot/leg injuries IIRC). Still not a totally fair comparison, as my Intrepid would correlate more to a Charger these days, whereas the Avenger would be more like the old Stratus. But still, that's a lot of car for the money!

andres3 · August 2013

Length of mileage or tread-life is hardly an indicator of tire quality.

What about traction? handling? noise? comfort? Usually, with longer tread life comes loss of braking ability, handling ability, and traction.

Your Hankooks were probably made alongside the Aveo plant in Korea by the way.

Regardless, people complaining about reliability and listing tires is an insult to anyone that's had an unreliable car. Tires are a wear and tear item; and go in the maintenance budget column. I like to keep costs out of my unexpected "repair" budget.

uplanderguy · August 2013

"Length of mileage or tread-life is hardly an indicator of tire quality."

You've got to be kidding me.

You are absolutely the first person I've heard in my 39 years of driving who said that.

You remind me that half an hour ago, I saw a first-generation Neon coupe, white with aftermarket black spoke wheels of some sort. It looked pretty clean from my driving by. Those were a handsome, inexpensive coupe IMHO. I know you compare them to an Audi costing multiples more, but...

andres3 · August 2013

You can talk about rounding error, sample error, and margin of error all you want, but until the domestics get good enough to get the red dots and force the foreign makers into the black dots, it's just more of the same.

I don't want to hear about how the gap has lessened and changed, I want to hear about the best of the best. Why is there a gap at all? Although some here would argue, there is no gap.

My brother in law's Mazda needed new brake calipers at 92K miles. He drives his car like a Grandpa and I tracked my A3 a half dozen weekends and have never changed the original stock OEM calipers.

Mazda has/had Ford disease. I just don't believe cars that are not well built are reliable, he spent $1,600 on his Mazda 6! Sure, most of that was maintenance, but still!

uplanderguy · August 2013

Oh, there are black dots for imports...check out the Germans.

Of course, without looking hard at all, I see black dots next to red dots, etc., when the cars really didn't change from one year to the next. But I won't get into that discussion again. I know what some say are the reasons for that, but.....

imidazol97 · August 2013

>Your Hankooks were probably made alongside the Aveo plant in Korea by the way.

What an insulting thing to say.

anythngbutgm · August 2013

Why is it insulting?

IIRC, Hankook tires is based out of South Korea...

http://global.hankooktire.com/Main/default.aspx

Bottom of the Page:

"Hankook Tire CO. Ltd. BLDG 647-15. Gangnam-gu, Seoul, South Korea"

stever · August 2013

Oh yeah? Well, my brother-in-law's sister-in-law's step-son's uncle had a pristine '98 LeSabre with 308,000 miles that was on its original pads when he was t-boned by the truck carrying red and black ink for CR's publisher.
:-/

circlew · August 2013

You can throw this one out your window also!

Chevrolet Ranks Last In Latest U.K. JD Power Survey

Chevrolet doesnt sell as well in the United Kingdom as it does in America. That much is a given. However, its limited success might have a thing or two to do with how the brand ranks in Europes J.D. Power Customer Satisfaction Survey. In the most recent case  dead last.

The survey consisted of 16,000 car owners in the U.K. and 116 models from 27 brands that are between a year and three years old. The requirements for a vehicle to be eligible for the survey are that it has to have at least 4,000 sales and 50 clean surveys. In total, respondents tallied more than 340 million miles in their cars.

Owners had to rank their vehicles based on 66 criteria, which are grouped to deliver an overall percentage score. Points are based on good reliability, performance, service and running costs.

Based on that formula, the winning brand was Jaguar, at 82.7%, followed closely by Lexus at 81.8%, and Honda at 80%. The bottom three were Mitsubishi with 74.5%, Alfa Romeo at 72.5%, and Chevrolet at 69.1%, with the Spark also ranking lowest in satisfaction for individual models. Yes, just 13.6 percentage points separate first from last, but nobody wants to be last. To note, Vauxhall came in 22nd place, which isnt very good, either.

andres3 · August 2013

She's not very happy with our current decision to make her learn to drive the 5-speed in the Cobalt.

_______________

I think about 10 years down the line she will look back and thank you for the driving lessons with a stick.

I think looking back I'm glad I learned how to drive in an '87 Jetta 5-speed. I think it made me a better driver, and at least knowledgeable enough to remember to use neutral if the accelerator ever gets stuck.

michaellno · August 2013

I say go for it! Heck, even at $16-17K before taxes, that's quite a bit of car - and engine - for the money.

You've been talking about a replacement for the Park Ave for a year or so now .. and, you've been thinking Japanese mid-sizer with a 4-banger (Altima, IIRC).

This way you get a Mopar with 280 rompin' stompin' horses. Your commute is 2.5 miles - the difference between 19MPG from the Dodge and mid-20's (?) from the Altima works out to ... let's see, carry the one ... nothing. At least, nothing significant.

And, as noted above, take the $6K you'll save and get the De Soto finished.

Mr_Shiftright · August 2013

Andreas is right, UP. The tire life and mileage ratings of tires are a marketing device. There are no set standards and nobody monitors what the tire company puts on the tire.

uplanderguy · August 2013

But to say that the durability of tire has nothing to do with quality is laughable.

uplanderguy · August 2013

Is there a single Chevrolet sold in the U.K. that is the same model sold in the U.S.?

Didn't used to be that way a few years back; don't know if there are Camaros and Impalas and Malibus there or not. Somehow, I'm thinking not.

Lots of U.K. posters on this board to be unimpressed with those numbers.

andres3 · August 2013

Your prediction is only coming true the last few years because of some of the most massive bailouts in US History, courtesy of twin brothers George W. Obama.

Otherwise I think you'll have to include anyone that's still driving who has a memory that reaches up to 2007 or so.

andres3 · August 2013

My rental experience recently in an Avenger was a horrible impression of the car. Of course, I got the slow as snails you can watch paint dry and grass grow with full throttle 4-banger version.

Mr_Shiftright · August 2013

that's why I always advise food stamps recipients to become corporations, so as to up their benefits

But seriously, you aren't saying that collective memory doesn't fade are you? Look at Hyundai. People obviously forgot what a piece of crap that car used to be.

Mr_Shiftright · August 2013

You must have gotten a dog, or I got the V-6? My rental Avenger moved out smartly enough.

Mr_Shiftright · August 2013

I think what he means is that since the 'durability" rating is somewhat meaningless, then the relation to quality is equally nebulous. Moreover, since there is no standardized testing, you can't really compare ratings from one brand to another.

About the only useful thing is that you CAN compare various types of tires within one manufacturer.

So "durability" ratings of all say Goodyear tires do have meaning, relative to each tire in their lineup.

andres3 · August 2013

Audi costing multiples more.....

______________

Try just about exactly 1.9 to 2X more on out the door costs.

But with nearly 2X the HP and 2X the torque, nearly 1,000 extra pounds, with the same gas mileage, well, heck, it's worth 2 times more not even considering the better interior and durability, and OH SNAP, lower maintenance/upkeep costs.

Some here would consider a $30K Audi besting the True cost to own of a $15K Dodge surprising. Not me; I've lived it.

Oh, and lastly, resale value seems to be at least not two but 3x better too. Ran my car at about $7K trade-in value with 104,000 miles. The Dodge couldn't get 4 figures at trade-in at 65,000 miles without negotiating on the price.

andres3 · August 2013

I only mention my brother in law's Mazda because he lives in the same area as me and this happened last Saturday. Over $1,600 at 92K miles and he didn't even do the timing belt yet.....

andres3 · August 2013

Agreed; I don't see it as insulting, but just pointing out the facts.

It seems he didn't know Hankook was a Korean brand.

Maybe he found the fact that Aveo had the name Chevy before it insulting?

xrunner2 · August 2013

JD Power Initial Quality Study results and Awards (26) for 2013:

http://autos.jdpower.com/ratings/quality.htm

greg128 · August 2013

"Oh, and lastly, resale value seems to be at least not two but 3x better too"

Well I just ran some resale numbers on a Dodge Avenger and an Audi A-4, used and new for comparing 2013 to 2008 model years. I am not sure of the original selling prices of the 2008 models, but I asume they were somewhat comparable to the new models. I chose a loaded up Avenger and a fairly base A-4 for the comparison. A loaded up A-4 probably would have skewed the results more in the Dodge's favor.

Results from Edmunds both 80K miles clean condition for 2008 models:

Audi A-4 2013 Selling price: $34500 Avenger: $23000
A-4 2008 private party value: $13500 Avenger: $9500
A-4 retained value: 38.5% Avenger: 37%
A-4 total depreciation: $21000 Avenger: $13,500

Yes we all realize that the extra money is worth it to you but I had to call you on the 2x and 3x resale comment.

stever · August 2013

The high tread wear tires I used to get were lousy runners as they aged and they never did all that good in rain, much less snow. I don't think the "quality" was there. (Mostly Yoko's and Costco Michelins).

greg128 · August 2013

Interesting that GM won 8 categories. Closest after them was Hyun-Kia with 3.
Only 2 each for Honda-Acura, Nissan-Infinity and Toyota-Lexus. Yeah I know,
GM bought them off.

From JD website about the awards:

"The majority of problems owners experience with their new vehicle in the first 90 days of ownership are design-related rather than manufacturing defects. These design problems are far less likely to be successfully resolved at the dealership than are defects, according to the study."

Mr_Shiftright · August 2013

The only quality study I'm interested in is the one that measures quality the day after the warranty expires.

berri · August 2013

Tire Rack has their review and owner surveys on tires. The Michelin Defender tire seems to have good tread wear and good traction, but they are a bit pricey.

The Current State of the US Auto Market

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