The Current State of the US Auto Market

uplanderguy · August 2013

andres3, you know the Aveo is gone, right? Replaced by the Sonic, which is the only subcompact built in the U.S. And the dealer nearest me isn't discounting them--I wish they were; maybe I'd consider one for my daughter.

stever · August 2013

Living in "Finn" country, I'm running Nokians presently. Don't think mine are new enough to have been made in the new Russian factory though.

tlong · August 2013

But to say that the durability of tire has nothing to do with quality is laughable.

Not entirely. There are tires with purposefully softer rubber so that they have better grip. And they wear worse and are more expensive. It's a tradeoff. So sometimes tires are less durable, but for an important reason.

tlong · August 2013

Is there a single Chevrolet sold in the U.K. that is the same model sold in the U.S.?

This sounds like a variant of the "can I buy that car right now in this country?" retort.

Not sure how that's relevant, as Chevy is a brand and is part of GM. So you're saying if Chevys are lousy in the UK then that means nothing?

Like any Chevy sold in the UK (right hand drive) would be identical to a US one.

andre1969 · August 2013

Oh yeah? Well, my brother-in-law's sister-in-law's step-son's uncle had a pristine '98 LeSabre with 308,000 miles that was on its original pads when he was t-boned by the truck carrying red and black ink for CR's publisher.

I think I heard about that...wasn't the truck a Toyota Tundra with a stuck gas pedal? :-P

uplanderguy · August 2013

"This sounds like a variant of the "can I buy that car right now in this country?" retort."

Let's not bring that up again. No one could dispute that you or I or anybody on this board, who wasn't buying a fleet of vehicles, wouldn't be able to buy a brand-new Captiva.

And RHD isn't what I was talking about. I don't believe the models sold there are the same as here...i.e., I don't believe a single North-American built Chevrolet is sold in Britain.

What you guys are dancing all around (shocker) is that the Powers' poll of initial quality shows Chevrolet above some import 'darlings' talked about frequently here.

If you posted that Toyotas sucked in U.K., which weren't the same cars sold here, I'd say 'and that is relevant to this discussion by North Americans, how?'.

This topic is about 'The State of the U.S. Auto Market'.

circlew · August 2013

You know an automaker is confident about the safety of its vehicles when it asks one of the top crash test agencies to destroy one of its newest models. That's exactly what happened with the 2014 Honda Odyssey. According the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, Honda requested that the agency run the updated Odyssey through its full barrage of tests, and for good reason.

Aside from slight styling upgrades and a new optional HondaVac built-in vacuum cleaner, the 2014 Odyssey was also given a more rigid passenger compartment using high-strength steel to help better protect occupants. It obviously worked. Following the crash tests, the 2014 Odyssey became the first minivan to earn a Top Safety Pick+ rating, but, more importantly, it did so with "Good" ratings in all five crash categories (four "Goods" and one "Acceptable" are enough for the TSP+). Impressive.

uplanderguy · August 2013

"I think I heard about that...wasn't the truck a Toyota Tundra with a stuck gas pedal?"

Or was it a T100? I lose track, since Toyota changed the name of their big truck.

andre1969 · August 2013

Tundra. The T100 wouldn't have had enough power to get up to speed to total a LeSabre. :P

imidazol97 · August 2013

>people complaining about reliability and listing tires is an insult to anyone that's had an unreliable car.
>Length of mileage or tread-life is hardly an indicator of tire quality.
>What about traction? handling? noise? comfort? Usually, with longer tread life comes loss of braking ability, handling ability, and traction.

All these from post 3124 http://townhall-talk.edmunds.com/direct/view/.f26e704/3123#MSG3123
where they didn't catch that I was mimicking the bombastic posting style and repeated the word "insult." Instead the poster insulted all the Korean autos like Kia and Hyundai along with the tyres because they were from Korea like the Aveo design was. The Hyundai and Kia brands have a bad reputation from years back, but like GM, those older problems have been partly assuaged in newer versions.

And the OP cited braking, handling, and traction. Aren't braking and handling related to traction?

As for my Hankooks, they were right up there with the highest quality tyres I've had. They gripped well on snow, ice, and in rain. They stayed ROUND as they rolled. I didn't even had to have them rebalanced regularly. They were true tires an stayed true as they wore.

Still trying to connect reliability and listing tires as an insult. --see point first paragraph of my post. I'm confused by the circular posting.

imidazol97 · August 2013

>high tread wear tires I used to get were lousy runners as they aged

How much aging here? 4 years? 10 years?

I'm surprised to see Michelins included in the cited brands. However, they do age after 6 years and the rubber hardens as it does on most tires, if not all. I never try to use the last 20% or life on a tire which means by about 25% or 30% left on tread depth I replace it. It's like batteries.

Michelin has the best tire chemistry in its tires. Various tread designs do affect how they work in snow and rain. And the depth left greatly affects that. Long, long ago I had a Ford that had tires with tread worn down to maybe 30% and the wide rears lost contact and I went off the road. I didn't realize what was happening. Luckily, no one was injured other than a broken telephone pole.

dieselone · August 2013

The Hankooks on my wife's 11 Taurus didn't wear well for whatever reason. When she turned it in at around 45k miles, the tires were basically shot.

Her '13 taurus has the same tires.

I've generally been happy with Michelin, but they do tend to be more expensive. So far I've gotten great wear out of the Michelin LTX tires on my Expedition and they've stayed very quiet.

stever · August 2013

More like three years. I haven't been especially impressed by the few sets of Michelins I've had over the years, but there's a lot of difference between models from the same manufacturer. Actually I haven't been all that impressed with most of my tires. The current sets are doing good but I haven't had them long enough to really say.

I do purposely avoid "long tread wear" tires now since I want a softer tire with more grip. With my flat tire record, I'm not likely to run four tires more that three years anyway, although I've been lucky with the AWD Subaru. I bet the van has had an "odd" tire on an axle for half its life.

I think your 20% rule is a good one.

dieselone · August 2013

Age is a big factor too. Also the elements can be very hard on tires. I've seen tires on trailers that are only a few years old, with hardly any miles on them fail. Simply from being left outside 24/7.

Honestly, I wouldn't trust a tire much older than 6-8 years regardless of tread depth.

I understand on the tread life. But on an SUV that I put 20k+ miles on a year, I don't want to replace tires every other year.

Ironically, the OEM Continental ConTrac TR tires on my Expedition were pretty good. I got 70k miles out of them and I think they were better in the snow than the Michelins I replaced them with. I've got nearly 60k miles on the Michelins and they still have plenty of tread. When these are due to be replaced, I'll likely need brakes too. By then I'll likely buy a new vehicle.

crkyolfrt · August 2013

I was curious about that p/u.

Has anyone used the popup interactive "may I help you" type box? Has a pic and first and last name of the woman who you think you are chatting with. They seem to start off by asking your name cuz that will make their info more communicative. So you type in a name. 'How may I help you?" I'd like to know if this featured truck has the 8 speed? "What is the model and year you are enquiring about?" I copy/paste the stock and VIN number. She then wants my email, phone etc etc so that sales can better able to answer that question. Huh? It's a simple question! So I type back, thanks anyway, all I wanted to know was whether the auto was the 8 speed. She then says "is there anything else I can help you with?" As if she was helpful already...:(

So this may be a stupid question, but these interactive chats that they claim are 'live' are complete and utter BS, right? Some software program that some idiot designed, and has the audacity to think that it can replace a human being? Then actually have the bumptiousness to ask if they can help with something additional. Uh...no..

Andre, I know you are Dodge fan, that truck is an 8 speed right? I thought they only put the 8 speed in the extra fuel efficient one...with the...darn, can't think of the name of the new V6 that came out a year or two ago that replaced the 3.9. I was under the impression that the cheaper entry level 1/2 ton, came with a 5 speed. But maybe that was in 2012? Time flies and maybe I am thinking old news. Here in Cda, it seems not that long ago they were advertising the highest FE of any NA full-sized truck, which they said was 30 I think, so 25 in the USA. But that truck was not the base V6 truck. It had quite a price premium to get into it with that 8 speed. (a good reason to buy that truck over the other two, IMO) Our fuel rating system here is wildly optimistic compared to the new and improved EPA. In fact, out present ratings are even optimistic to the 'old' EPA, they are so outta whack still.

Also, can you recommend a good forum were someone could find out about some real live experiences with the newer Ram's? There doesn't seem to be much chat about them good or bad here on Edmunds, or if so haven't found it yet.

fintail · August 2013

It's a script/bot. There's no person behind that chat screen, they just want your info for a phone call.

andre1969 · August 2013

Yeah, like Fintail said, that "live chat" is BS. When I contacted that dealer last year about the Ram I bought, I think I might have just called them. It was on a Saturday night, and I wanted to move kind of quickly because my uncle's '97 Silverado, which we wanted to use as a trade, was dying fast. So I didn't want to mess around with emailing.

That V-6 is the newer 3.6 that started showing up in the likes of the 2011 Charger/300 and such, and is supposedly a pretty good engine. In cars it replaced the 3.5 SOHC, and in trucks it replaced the 3.7 SOHC, which was a 4.7 V-8 with two cylinders removed. And yeah, it has an 8-speed standard.

In 2012, I think the 3.7 and 4.7 used a 5-speed in the Ram while the Hemi used a 6-speed, and they were all EPA-rated 14/20, so it just made sense to go ahead and get the Hemi! The 3.6/8-speed is EPA rated 17/25 I think, but I believe there might be some "Eco" version that's 18/25?

The 3.9 was a sawed off 318, and I think it was retired around 2001 or 2002? Chrysler created it for use in the Dakota when it first came out, and I think it was pretty impressive initially, but it never really got developed and I don't think hp went beyond 150.

I really haven't heard much about the new Ram, either, except that Motor Trend named it "Truck of the Year" I think. Take that with a grain of salt though, because the 1971 Vega was car of the year once! :P

I like my Ram, for the most part, but don't really love it. I think it looks good, has a good driving position, and legroom is good. And it's fast. I've managed to get about 20 mpg once or twice on the highway, but in local driving have gotten as bad as 11-12. I think I've averaged about 14.6 so far since I've had it.

Nothing has broken on it yet, but it's gotten a few door dings and the sheetmetal seems a bit thin. It has stalled out on me twice though, and twice it's gotten stuck in 4th gear (I can tell because there's a display on the dash that reads "4"). It's good out on the highway, but I have trouble parking it in tight spaces, because it sits up so high. It's also rough riding, in my opinion. I think that's because they made it *too* stiff. You don't get the cab/bed flex like in some other pickups, but I think that flex makes the other trucks ride a bit better.

My uncle somehow managed to get the tilt steering jammed, and I had to wrestle with it to get it loose; was afraid I was going to break it! And if you close a door with a window down, it sounds kind of cheap. But, I guess they had to cut a corner here and there to keep the price down.

I haven't had it back to the dealer yet, but want to get it in one day soon to have them check out the transmission and why it's stalling. When it only did it once, I thought it was a fluke. But if it did it twice, that makes me think it'll do it again!

andres3 · August 2013

Talking about tires in relation to reliability is an insult because tires are a wear and tear item. They are supposed to wear out, and it is expected and normal behavior.

To me, reliability is when things like engines, head gaskets, air conditioners, cables, wires, O2 Sensors, O-ring gaskets, parking brakes, fuel pumps, and other unexpected items fail.

Even wear and tear items wouldn't be insulting if you add some background. For instance, having my serpentine belt snap and break prior to 60K miles should never happen; so a premature death is acceptable in relation to reliability.

Tires don't fall under that category unless you are specific because an ultra high performance tire really isn't supposed to last much more than 20 to 30,000 miles if you are having any fun. Now if you buy an 80,000 mile tire and it loses all its tread at 30K, then you have a story.

I just find it insulting when people complain about brake dust, brake noise, tire wear, brake pad wear, when there are cars that have a dozen things not wear down, but completely fail prior to hitting 50,000 miles.

crkyolfrt · August 2013

So true, that.

crkyolfrt · August 2013

I'm a little nervous of the thought of depending on Dodge reliability, especially once out of warranty, but I do have an interest in maybe having a truck once again. I love the seating positions (although hated that the Ford I sat in recently had a really useless and ill-designed left foot dead pedal...combine that with a few other non ergonomic/intuitive interior weirdnesses, these guys have no right to be as seemingly successful with their proverbial F150) but the price paid with so much potential versatility is the higher fuel consumption. This new ecodiesel Ram 1500 that's coming might help offset that quite a bit.

Thanks for the confirmation, you and fintail, about the uselessness of those chat windows. It's actually pretty fraudulent to have a pic icon with a first and last name assigned to nothing more than a computer program..
It's insulting.

imidazol97 · August 2013

>Talking about tires in relation to reliability is an insult

Please save the lecture. I wasn't talking about reliability: I was talking about tires. Thank you.

ohenryx · August 2013

the uselessness of those chat windows. It's actually pretty fraudulent to have a pic icon with a first and last name assigned to nothing more than a computer program..
It's insulting.

Anyone else remember Eliza, back in the mid 60's? It was a computer program, and was actually a lot smarter than the bots the car dealers are using. Makes me wonder why they bother, there have to be much better solutions available and for not much money. All in all, I have to agree it's a little insulting.

hpmctorque · August 2013

I rented a 4-cylinder Avenger with 4-speed automatic several months ago and didn't think it was as slow as you described. I found performance, ride and driving dynamics to be very adequate for the price they're selling for. Sure, there are significantly better midsize choices, but they cost more than what you'd pay for an Avenger. The main drawback of the Avenger, as has been pointed out, is comparatively low fuel economy.

stever · August 2013

You know our thread about how you never see cars broken down on the side of the road anymore?

We did a little day trip today and on the edge of town (Taos) a couple were waving what looked to be a halter and rope. I slowed and rolled the window down, thinking maybe a horse was on the loose. Turned out they needed a jump so I pulled into the driveway kind of area and helped them get going. Older Subaru with 240k on it (and only one head gasket done by a prior owner).

A little while later there was a 70's VW Beetle dead on the shoulder of a T intersection and he was pushing it to a driveway where someone had pulled over to help him.

Later in the day we were on the "high road" and saw something that brought lots of memories back. An 80's Silverado was going up a grade pulling a travel trailer and it had pulled over - it was steaming to beat the band. I remember having to do that in the 60's in normal cars, towing nothing.

My wife was thinking there's a lot of poor people driving beaters here in NM, but I think we have as many folks struggling in the UP - it's just that old cars don't rust away in the Southwest so you can keep driving them. Our Quest fits right in, lol.

circlew · August 2013

Here is some info on the ytd market for hybrids and full electric. GM leads with the Volt but Toyota owns hybrids.

Largely through the expanded lineup of its three gas-electric Prius models, Toyota holds 70% of the U.S. market for nonplug-in hybrids. Ford is second at 13%, according to hybridcars.com.

The automaker sells 12 hybrid, plug-in hybrid or all-electric models in the U.S.

While Toyota is a global leader in conventional gas-electric hybrid sales, it lags General Motors, Nissan and upstart electric car maker Tesla in sales of fully electric cars.

So far this year, Toyota has sold 5,031 Prius plug-in cars and 517 battery-only RAV4s, compared with 11,643 for Chevrolet Volt, 11,703 for Nissan Leaf and 10,401 for Tesla Model S.

If the Volt had the appearance factor of the new Impala, I'd bet sales would surge!

Where are those new Impalas?

Mr_Shiftright · August 2013

Toyota is smart not to spend money developing an all-electric car, since there seems to be no battery technology on the immediate horizon to make them any better than they are. Maybe in 10 years?

In 1920 an electric could go about 40 miles on a charge (at the general speeds common for the time)

In 1998 an EV-1 could in theory go 100 miles

In 2013 a Leaf can go about 80 miles and a Tesla about 200.

For a century of trying, the EV really hasn't gotten very far, or very cheap either.

circlew · August 2013

But an electric today can do a lot more in performance and high feature content than those early EV's.

Mr_Shiftright · August 2013

True and they're great for certain applications but EVs have not overcome the marketing obstacle of "range anxiety", nor will they for at least another decade IMO. Basically I think they need to go 300 miles no sweat, day or night, warm or cold weather, at normal commuter speeds.

Otherwise they will remain a tiny niche market---which some automakers may want to occupy anyway--you know, like competing for market share against the passenger car diesel market.

stever · August 2013

I think the "push" is to help the automakers meet CAFE requirements, or maybe some emissions requirement. But building them is a good technical exercise and some stuff will surely filter over to regular cars, like seamless start/stop gizmos.

Third hand info, but supposed a guy here in NM drove over to Arizona and the charging stations he planned to use on his return trip were non-existent. So it took him a couple of extra days to get home, relying on the kindness of strangers and their 110 outlets.

suydam · August 2013

I disagree. I think they make a perfect second vehicle for a lot of people whose second car is primarily driven around town.

Mr_Shiftright · August 2013

We don't disagree at all---I also think EVs are perfect for limited use, as you described. It's no coincidence that the Leaf sells best in the city of San Francisco---a tough place to park, high gas prices, heavy slow traffic, yet most things you need are within a 15-20 mile radius. The only downside for owners would be that electricity is not cheap here, so in the "real world", probably an EV costs you just as much as a hybrid to drive.

circlew · August 2013

-The only downside for owners would be that electricity is not cheap here, so in the "real world", probably an EV costs you just as much as a hybrid to drive.-

That's why Toyota made the smart play into Hybrids first. GM blundered with full electric instead of investment in hybrids as a main driver into this market.

Mr_Shiftright · August 2013

Exactly ---once hybrid/electrics develop to the point where a plug-in hybrid can go 75 miles on a charge, EVs are going to be a dead duck.

hpmctorque · August 2013

With everyone getting into everyone else's space, it'll be interesting to see whether Tesla will offer plug-in hybrids, in addition to EVs.

Mr_Shiftright · August 2013

Tesla will have to offer plug-ins, or pull a very big rabbit out of a very big hat that doesn't appear to exist at the moment.

crkyolfrt · August 2013

If they did, it is almost like an entire additional company, and would send the wrong message to their present target buyer. Use gas in a Tesla!? Blasphemy..

Who knows though..they might have no choice..
Like you say, it'll be interesting watching them.

hpmctorque · August 2013

Adding a plug-in hybrid, or a regular hybrid, would put Tesla Motors into direct competition with the world's largest manufacturers. For this reason, and, as you pointed out, the message it would send, I don't think they will do it.

Also, The company would need to issue new stock to diversify into new propulsion systems. Tesla stock would most certainly take a hit, because of the investment a totally new powertrain would require. A decline in the stock, in turn, would limit what they could get from a new stock offering.

For the reasons cited above, I think Tesla is boxed in. Either EV works for them in a big way, or they'll remain a niche player. A major breakthrough in battery technology could change Tesla's status very positively. As Shifty has stated numerous times, there are no signs of such a breakthrough. There have been times, though, when major breakthroughs, or game changing applications using current technology, have come out of left field.

Mr_Shiftright · August 2013

Given all the global brains that are working on battery technology for various purposes, including space exploration---if you explore all the current literature and discussions, some new miracle battery tech is simply not out there right now.

Tesla could certainly add MORE batteries to increase range, but man, that gets $$$.

crkyolfrt · August 2013

Tesla stock would most certainly take a hit, because of the investment a totally new powertrain would require. A decline in the stock, in turn, would limit what they could get from a new stock offering.

Yes, but there would be an element of mitigation as part of the equation cuz there would be those investors who would feel a bit more confident with hedging their investment in a stock because of the hybrid diversification. Whether or not that would be enough to offset the purists, who knows..

And of course that sorta brings also us to potential newer battery tech scenario..No doubt Tesla would be right there with bells on, but that same new tech would also then be utilized by the likes of Nissan and even Toyota too. Toyota especially, would have the bucks to bring them up to speed and really put the competitive squeeze on the other two..

crkyolfrt · August 2013

Tesla could certainly add MORE batteries to increase range, but man, that gets $$$.

And would raise the CoG and overall handling dynamics their present platform has.
A hybrid of course would do that too so is just an additional obstacle.

hpmctorque · August 2013

What's CoG (cost of ?, maybe?)?

Also, additional batteries would require heavier suspension components and larger tires, to keep things comparable. No, thanks.

crkyolfrt · August 2013

Sorry... centre of gravity

scwmcan · August 2013

I don't think Tesla is going to do anything but make pure EV cars, that is their whole purpose for being there in the first place. As for Toyota being in there with any new battery tech, that is a given, especially since they own part of the company and use Tesla derived batty packs in the RAV4 EV as I recall. I don't know that Toyota would put them out of business, but they might buy up the whole company at some point if they thought it made sense from a business standpoint.

uplanderguy · September 2013

...for my 16-year-old daughter. I've liked my '08 for what it is.

We had discussed here earlier, how '09's go for $9K regularly online, which is too much.

I bid on a white fleet car, 51K miles, LT, everything works, maintained strictly I'm told, and the car had no reserve and the auction ended on a Tuesday at 4 p.m. I bid a max of $6,001...and got it today.

It's near Philly, which I'm not familiar with, but I'm going to pick it up Saturday if that works for the seller...he hasn't said yet. Clean carfax.

stickguy · September 2013

where abouts near Philly? Because that is where I am (just outside the city on the Jersey side). So let me know where it is and I can give you some advice if you need.

sounds like a good deal too. Plenty of life left in it, should still be in the reliable phase of it's life (still a "real" car). And of course, cheap.

hpmctorque · September 2013

"I don't know that Toyota would put them out of business, but they might buy up the whole company at some point if they thought it made sense from a business standpoint."

The operative words in your statement are "at some point" because I can't see any competitor being interested in buying Tesla at anywhere near its current market valuation of ~$20,000,000,000. Even a fraction of that would buy a lot of engineering and R&D talent.

uplanderguy · September 2013

The car is in Cinnaminsin (sp?), NJ. I have a niece and family in Westville who we'll probably visit when out there, though I've never been there.

andre1969 · September 2013

Congrats on the new ride! Hope it serves your daughter well. If you're going to be in Philly, you should look up Lemko.

dieselone · September 2013

Uplander, I think that's a great price. Like you mentioned, I've been looking at various compacts with that kind of mileage etc, and the asking prices definitely turn me off.

I've never bought a car on ebay. Please report how it all works out. Hopefully it will be as good as advertised and the transaction goes smoothly..

Good luck.

An 09 Cobalt LT with 51k for $6k sounds like a very good deal to me, and definitely worth traveling for. I assume it's a 4dr?

uplanderguy · September 2013

Yeah, it's a four-door.

I noticed that this car did not have a reserve, which is somewhat unusual. I also noticed that the auction ended on a weekday afternoon. It seems to me that most car auctions end on Sunday night. Those things worked in my favor I think.

The car was delivered in Dec. '08....so I should have three months or so of the 5 yr./100K powertrain warranty left (includes wheel bearings and cooling). You can bet I'll go over that car with a fine-tooth comb!

I'd have liked an '09 built in Aug. '09, but can't be too fussy! LOL

The Current State of the US Auto Market

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