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Is Tesla A Game Changer?

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Comments

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    edited September 2013
    $500/day is more than I'd care to pay for a rental, although I'd pay that for the experience of driving a new Ferrari, or certain older Ferraris.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,072
    For say a 250GT Berlinetta Lusso, sign me up. For a Tesla, not so much. It'd need to be more like $100/day.

    Wouldn't surprise me if the Hertz models were fairly basic spec, no performance models.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    Bubbles can go to virtually any price and can remain overvalued for a long time before they burst. Emotions, over-optimism and greed trump fundamentals and fear during a bubble phase.

    Almost all the news and press releases about Tesla cars, Tesla Motor's plans, Tesla's CEO, etc. have been positive. Some of it is justified, some is hype. The stock will likely go higher or remain high until a credible piece of negative news comes out, or until the last optimist slurps the cool-aid.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    Bubbles can go to virtually any price and can remain overvalued for a long time before they burst. Emotions, over-optimism and greed trump fundamentals and fear during a bubble phase.

    Almost all the news and press releases about Tesla cars, Tesla Motor's plans, Tesla's CEO, etc. have been positive. Some of it is justified, some is hype. The stock will likely go higher or remain high until a credible piece of negative news comes out, or until the last optimist slurps the cool-aid.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    So you are a gambler and not an investor? :)

    Fair enough, just as long as you know that.
  • bwiabwia Member Posts: 2,913
    So you are a gambler and not an investor?

    Certainly not all of these investors are gamblers. It's a gamble if there is no product behind the hype. Not the case with Tesla.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    Speculator may be a more appropriate term than gambler, since the Model S has been successful, albeit with significant help from tax incentives and carbon credits, and the company is likely to become profitable. I'll be watching what happens to the stock when there's disappointing news.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    If you buy stock against every recommendation of every reputable analyst, and you buy stock with a projected P/E ratio of 245, you are a gambler.
  • bwiabwia Member Posts: 2,913
    Thought I'd share this beautiful animation of how the internal combustion engine works. http://jacoboneal.com/car-engine/

    Compared to the Tesla, whose electric motor is so simple, the ICU is unnecessarily complicated with so many things that can go wrong. And they often do with or without constant maintenance. Nonetheless, Carl Benz or whoever else who invented the ICU was a genius.

    Enjoy!
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Well the average ICU now goes 250,000 without a blip, so we'll see if a Tesla can.
  • anythngbutgmanythngbutgm Member Posts: 4,277
    edited October 2013
    Best Selling car in Norway for September

    "Not the best-selling electric car. Not the best-selling car with a plug.

    For the month of September, the Tesla Model S was the best-selling car, period."

    :surprise:
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    616 cars? GM loses more than that every day in shipping.
  • anythngbutgmanythngbutgm Member Posts: 4,277
    Heck, probably more cars than GM sells in Norway per month :)

    Still, these are exported goods, a positive for a US company to be doing so well globally. I expect a few more of these similar stories in other Countries before long.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    True, Norway sales are very positive for Tesla and also positive for U.S. employment, balance of payments and economy. However, Norway offers huge incentives for their wealthy citizens to buy Teslas, as was mentioned in the article.

    I'm okay with Norway paying these incentives and giving its drivers non-monetary incentives for an expensive American import, but I'd be less enthusiastic if I were a Norwegian citizen and motorist.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    but....but....they're SOCIALISTS!! Tesla is selling to the commies---LOL!
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    edited October 2013
    Yes, but they're RICh socialists, if that's possible.

    By the way, check out the video of a Model S that caught fire upon impact. It'll be interesting to see how this impacts Tesla's reputation for safety. I imagine it'll depend on the details regarding this accident. Although the car was destroyed, fortunately no one was injured.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,072
    Of course this happened in WA

    I like the Norway thing too, looks like American socio-economic policy is being exported. Or it's just goofy policy via dopey greenies.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Another report of a runaway Tesla was recorded with NHTSA recently.

    I spoke to a friend who is an expert vintage race car driver (you have to have a big set to drive some of these old timey cars as fast as he does) and his comment after test driving a Tesla was that it was a very nice car indeed but that "the rate of acceleration is positively LETHAL to an inexperienced or careless driver".

    I suppose one could say that about a Ferrari as well, but I think his point was that the kind of person buying a Tesla is not a sports car enthusiast to begin with.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    edited October 2013
    Lethal acceleration qualifies Tesla as a game changer.

    Maybe there should be a safety warning, as is required for cigarettes.
  • anythngbutgmanythngbutgm Member Posts: 4,277
    lol, A warning label on the gas pedal would be classic!
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Why is lethal acceleration a game changer? Lots of cars have that; however most of the really fast cars are driven by people who expect that sort of thing to happen. Of course, all the crashed Vipers suggest I may be wrong about that last part.
  • crkyolfrtcrkyolfrt Member Posts: 2,345
    edited October 2013
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/news-sources/?mid=prnews.20131003.- NY91628

    Looks like Tesla vehicle fires are pretty quick to happen when involved in normal everyday incidences. Lately a rear-ender, and the next day with another, road debris flew up and started a fire. I guess it isn't really necessary to point out where the fires occurred in both cases? Let's just say it wasn't from a gasoline storage tank.

    The stock price has been reflected by these incidents too..there goes your aspirations of the 200 buck threshold for awhile..might be quite awhile if some more of this bad press starts to gain a bit more momentum.

    If my post has a hint of unsympathetic undertones, it's because you would think that since Tesla places the batteries so low in the chassis (a good thing) that they would properly protect them from basic common everyday hazards like kicked-up road debris. That challenge is not rocket science.

    If this latest news is true, then it seems that some of the more rudimentary bases haven't been covered and that has to cause some investors a caution or two. I know it would me if I owned the stock.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    While very quick acceleration isn't Tesla's primary attribute, I think most buyers know that it's one of the car's qualities. Now, you could argue that most buyers don't have the skill to use all of that power, but that's true of many cars. The competent chassis and low center of gravity of the Model S suggest that the car's power and handling capabilities are in similar balance with competing powerful luxury sedans.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Lost in the smoke and the ~10% stock price drop is the news that Tesla has "reached an agreement with the Virginia dealers' group and state Department of Motor Vehicles " to sell cars in Tyson's Corner. They still have to get the license from DMV. (Automotive News)
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    It'll be interesting to see to what extent the fire affects the value of used Teslas. Any guesses?
  • crkyolfrtcrkyolfrt Member Posts: 2,345
    I think it will depend on how many incidents end up with a fire.

    Impact protection should not be that hard to address..certainly not from usual road debris being thrown up. If fires are happening due to other more invasive impacts like collisions, then maybe the batteries are sensitive to shock deceleration values? Who knows, but I find it odd that their crash worthiness claims don't seem to be standing up in real world use.

    It could also be negative media fear mongering, or even stock manipulation...all hurdles that new companies trying to get a foot hold in the market must endure till reputation either exonerates or condemns.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    The driver hit the debris in the HOV lane.

    It was sabotage. :shades:
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,072
    Fun issue would be if a normal car would self-immolate if it struck the same debris.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited October 2013
    I just get flats. :sick:
  • crkyolfrtcrkyolfrt Member Posts: 2,345
    That's probably cuz you do all those rutted back roads spotted with jagged rocks and downed spruce tree twigs jabbin' 'em..
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,072
    edited October 2013
    Of course, as you might as well live above the Arctic Circle :)

    I am curious to know exactly what the Tesla hit.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    squirrel suicide bomber?

    I have always feared that they may organize some day.

    RE: Sure the media may jump on this, and Tesla had better be ready for it, or future incidents, and not come up with that odd statement (and vague one) they offered for the fire--basically saying that the passenger compartment didn't burn because "of the way Teslas are built".

    Actually I'd like to hear a Tesla engineer's explanation of statement. A fireproof firewall and trunk bulkhead? Asbestos carpeting? What?
  • lemkolemko Member Posts: 15,261
    Rich socialists? Do they rob from each other and give to themselves?
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited October 2013
    Oil money, Lem. And high education levels. They are pretty much a monolithic culture remember. I think they are pretty much all on the same page when it comes to issues of the general welfare of the entire population. They do "big picture" better than we do.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,072
    edited October 2013
    Oil money, subsidized defense, stable fairly homogeneous demographics. When you only have to spend money on yourself, you can do more with it, and do a better job at looking after your own people.

    I suspect when they give gifts to the top few, it doesn't result in decades of devolution as it has here.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    This is what Tesla is saying on their blog:

    "A curved section that fell off a semi-trailer was recovered from the roadway near where the accident occurred and, according to the road crew that was on the scene, appears to be the culprit."
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Hmmm...I wonder what the people writing the $100K check are going to say about that.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited October 2013
    Elon will buy the insurance company and they'll write the check. No problemo.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,072
    I'd like to see it. Maybe these things need kevlar skid plates or something.

    And I bet Musk and his suits do everything possible to keep the driver happy and quiet.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Who fixes these things when they break? Pep Boys? :)
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited October 2013
    The driver, besides being an owner, is an investor in Tesla.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,072
    edited October 2013
    I saw his letter, yeah. Of course he'll want the bubble to carry on.

    What I am thinking is that if this was such a big piece of debris, why didn't the "driver" avoid it? Phone in hand, maybe (high end car with standard bluetooth, inept overmonied type behind the wheel, etc - I see the guy is from Bellevue, I see it every day)

    Musk has also issued a statement Which is kind of amusing, kind of like the wacky cost of ownership claims. Comparing fire probablity for the vehicle fleet in general vs his car. I'd assume most non-Italian cars that catch fire are old, poorly maintained, and unsafe anyway. To compare those to a brand new expensive car with not a lot of time or miles under its belt is a bit sketchy.
  • anythngbutgmanythngbutgm Member Posts: 4,277
    I read a while back that Tesla contracts repair work with Audi since they felt they were the most advanced as far as structural engineering and exotic materials go.

    Thought I read that here on Edmunds actually...
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Could be true for collision work, since the Audi A8 is an all aluminum frame.
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    edited October 2013
    Well, it's pretty easy to predict that at a price of $75,995 the Cadillac Volt ELR won't be a game changer.

    One of the big tail winds the Model S has going for it is that it doesn't have even one direct competitor.
  • anythngbutgmanythngbutgm Member Posts: 4,277
    http://techcrunch.com/2013/10/24/tesla-reportedly-poaches-apple-vp-of-product-de- sign-doug-field-to-lead-new-vehicle-development/

    Field says that he had never seriously considered leaving Apple. He began his career as a development engineer at Ford but says that he left the auto industry in “search of fast-paced, exciting engineering challenges elsewhere.”

    Certainly picked the right company IMO...
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    time will tell....automobiles don't scale up like iPad minis.
  • bwiabwia Member Posts: 2,913
    Certainly picked the right company IMO...

    Things are falling into place for Tesla as "California, New York and six other states said they would work jointly to adopt a range of measures to make it easier to own an electric car."
    Read full NY Times article at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/25/business/energy-environment/coalition-of-state- s-seeks-to-spur-use-of-electric-cars.html?ref=automobiles
  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600
    Here we go again; governments picking winners and losers. Buyers aren't embracing electric cars, so our elected officials bribe consumers with money and perks to buy them, using your money and mine.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I'd rather they put all that money into bike lanes actually. This "feel good" marketing is getting tedious.

    Americans want Apple products. Americans do not apparently want electric cars, and are not prying off dealership doors to get at diesels either.

    What's the point? MAKE THEM want it?
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