Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!





Is Tesla A Game Changer?

191012141522

Comments

  • fintailfintail Posts: 34,010
    I saw Musk on TV today stating that his car has less fire risk than gasoline cars. Of course, he's using the entire fleet in general, and not making it apples to apples and narrowing it down to >16 month old 80K+ cars.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 45,331
    There are not enough Teslas on the road, nor have they accrued enough road time, to make such a claim.

    MODERATOR --Need help with anything? Click on my name!

  • fintailfintail Posts: 34,010
    They've sold a couple thousand, right? We could compare to 2012+ cars in the same price range and type.

    And yeah, I see I typo'd my >/< symbols ;)
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 45,331
    You'd also have to compare not only to like kind of car, but also to like mileage and driving conditions and reasons for the fires. Tesla fires are related to collision, not say other common causes of car fires---some cars just catch fire while driving, others in the garage, some due to old age and neglect, etc.

    MODERATOR --Need help with anything? Click on my name!

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,254
    Yes, mileage. Any comparison should be adjusted for mileage.

    It would be interesting to know the average monthly mileage for Tesla S models compared with other cars in its price range.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 45,331
    That would be interesting. I would guess that it would be less, due to...well...range anxiety issues limiting the use of the vehicle.

    MODERATOR --Need help with anything? Click on my name!

  • fintailfintail Posts: 34,010
    From what I can see, some amount of luxobarges don't get miled up either. Not hard to find low mileage ones out there.

    The collision angle is funny, seeing as the Tesla fire in my area happened via glorified road debris, which probably wouldn't have destroyed a similar car in the same price range.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 45,331
    gas fires and electrical fires are very different in nature, so the only proper way to compare car fires is to compare # of Tesla fires to # of Leaf fires.

    MODERATOR --Need help with anything? Click on my name!

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,254
    have there been any reported Leaf fires? I haven't read of any.
  • fintailfintail Posts: 34,010
    But Musk was dismissing Tesla fires by claiming gasoline vehicles have a greater risk of fire - while of course not narrowing it down to vehicles that are actually similar to his car (let's say mid year 2012+ cars costing 80K+).

    That being said, I don't recall Leaf fires under similar circumstances, nor know if the media would jump on them as hard, nor if the construction (floor) of the car is such a potential design issue in that car.
  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,312
    edited January 22
    No Leaf or Volt fires, other than the Volts that caught on fire in storage hours to weeks after the NHTSA crash test. (Probe of Chevrolet Volt fires ends; safety regulators OK GM's fix) (LA Times)

    Nissan: "There Have Been No Fires Involving the Nissan LEAF" (insideevs.com)

    The Karma made headlines a year ago:

    Fisker Reveals Cause of Karma Fires During Hurricane Sandy

    There are several other reports of Karma fires, including one that damaged a home.

    The ones I remember were BMW fires; there was a big recall for various models.

    Moderator
    Minivan fan. Feel free to message or email me - stever@edmunds.com.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,254
    edited January 22
    "Tesla Motors Inc. said Monday a German probe of three recent fires in Model S electric sports sedans found 'no manufacturer-related defects.'"

    German authorities had requested data on the incidents from the company, according to a statement on Tesla's web site.

    The investigation found that 'no further measures under the German Product Safety Act [Produktsicherheitsgesetz (ProdSG)] are deemed necessary,' according to Tesla's statement."
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 45,331
    edited December 2013
    However, Reuters did put in an interesting comment about the report (sent to Tesla in German) ...it said: "...as translated by Tesla".

    MODERATOR --Need help with anything? Click on my name!

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Posts: 4,254
    edited December 2013
    Good point, but if Tesla's translation is inaccurate someone who's fluent in German will surely correct it. In the meantime, while the stock market futures are down this morning, pre-market opening indications for Tesla are up 7.75, to 131.92. Time will tell whether this rise represents a dead cat bounce or a turn-around. I continue to think the stock remains somewhat overvalued, even after the sharp pull-back of recent weeks, but that wouldn't prevent it from rising in the near-term.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 45,331
    edited December 2013
    I don't think it's "somewhat" overvalued, I think it is monstrously overvalued. But as long as investors don't think so, what I think doesn't matter much :)

    You can see from the way the stock behaves that it's much more like an irrationally driven tech stock than it is like an automobile stock. It could jump 30 points or drop 50 and people would find that normal.

    I'd like to see the original letter in German--I don't believe it contains anything markedly different from what Tesla said, but I was curious is there were other qualifying words in there that hinted at further monitoring.

    MODERATOR --Need help with anything? Click on my name!

  • fintailfintail Posts: 34,010
    edited December 2013
    I wonder how many people who downplay the valuation own stock - probably most of them. Good point about the behavior - securities linked to heavy industries usually don't behave like that.

    I'd like to see the original letter too - wouldn't surprise me if it is unavailable. The Germans probably say based on the data supplied (by Musk himself), everything is fine - or that they didn't go on site to perform an investigation, so they can't make a negative declaration.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 45,331
    Some ideas from Forbes:

    At current value, the stock valuation equates to each Tesla being worth about $1.1 million dollars. A BWM with its market cap is worth about $28,500 per car and Mercedes $43,000 per car.

    GM's price per car, even with its market cap at more than double Tesla's is about $5,400, or 1.5% of Tesla's per car value.

    Something is way out of whack here.

    And of course, Toyota BMW et al are not going just stand around and let Tesla gouge the EV market.

    MODERATOR --Need help with anything? Click on my name!

  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,312
    There's a copy of the letter on the website (nothing at the KBA).

    German Federal Motor Transport Authority (Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt) Concludes Review of Model S Incidents (Tesla Motors)

    Moderator
    Minivan fan. Feel free to message or email me - stever@edmunds.com.

  • fintailfintail Posts: 34,010
    Interesting, so it really gives no details. I can believe it.
  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,312
    edited December 2013
    The upshot is that it's not an issue because no one would dare to toss trailer hitches or other trash on the Autobahnen. :shades:

    Moderator
    Minivan fan. Feel free to message or email me - stever@edmunds.com.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 45,331
    But Tesla is going to raise the ride height--which is good, but it may affect the handling a bit.

    MODERATOR --Need help with anything? Click on my name!

  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,312
    Low mode now kicks in at 93mph, instead of 60, although the Edmunds' fleet Tesla hasn't been checked at speed yet to verify the software "adjustment".

    It's not clear to me if just cars with the optional air suspension got the fix, but how else could you change the ride height remotely?

    2013 Tesla Model S: Software 5.8 Update, Low Ride Height Disabled

    Moderator
    Minivan fan. Feel free to message or email me - stever@edmunds.com.

  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,312
    "Federal safety regulators are looking into the "function and operation of the actively controlled suspension system, which affects or may affect the subject vehicle ride height, including but not limited to software and other programming modifications/revisions."

    Feds Spell Out Requirements in 2013 Tesla Model S Probe

    Moderator
    Minivan fan. Feel free to message or email me - stever@edmunds.com.

  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,312

    It's definitely a software changer.

    2013 Tesla Model S: Huge Improvements in Release v5.8

    Moderator
    Minivan fan. Feel free to message or email me - stever@edmunds.com.

  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,312
    edited January 14

    "Tesla Motors broke all of those rules Tuesday with perhaps the least rehearsed, most amateurish-looking press conference of any automaker at this year's Detroit auto show.

    The consequences? Its stock surged 16 percent.

    Guillen said Tesla sold more cars than expected at the end of 2013 and that the company would experience "reckless growth" in 2014. He later sent an e-mail saying he had intended to use the word "relentless."

    All the wrong things pay off for Tesla (Automotive News)

    Moderator
    Minivan fan. Feel free to message or email me - stever@edmunds.com.

  • fintailfintail Posts: 34,010

    16% lol...definite legitimate market forces in action.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 45,331

    it's scary, really.

    MODERATOR --Need help with anything? Click on my name!

  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,312
    edited January 22

    Edmunds just reserved a Model X for the long term fleet. 2015 maybe?

    (For $40,000, you can reserve one too).

    Capture.JPG 84.9K

    Moderator
    Minivan fan. Feel free to message or email me - stever@edmunds.com.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright CaliforniaPosts: 45,331

    Oh goodie! Maybe this'll be the one that'll turn the company into a profit-maker. The only test I want to hear about is RANGE under realistic conditions--that is, rainy day, heater on, lights on.

    MODERATOR --Need help with anything? Click on my name!

  • steverstever Viva Las CrucesPosts: 41,312

    Just to clarify, you're referring to car sale profits, not stock speculation profits, right? :p

    Moderator
    Minivan fan. Feel free to message or email me - stever@edmunds.com.

Sign In or Register to comment.