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Is Tesla A Game Changer?

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Comments

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    But Tesla is going to raise the ride height--which is good, but it may affect the handling a bit.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Low mode now kicks in at 93mph, instead of 60, although the Edmunds' fleet Tesla hasn't been checked at speed yet to verify the software "adjustment".

    It's not clear to me if just cars with the optional air suspension got the fix, but how else could you change the ride height remotely?

    2013 Tesla Model S: Software 5.8 Update, Low Ride Height Disabled
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    "Federal safety regulators are looking into the "function and operation of the actively controlled suspension system, which affects or may affect the subject vehicle ride height, including but not limited to software and other programming modifications/revisions."

    Feds Spell Out Requirements in 2013 Tesla Model S Probe
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454

    It's definitely a software changer.

    2013 Tesla Model S: Huge Improvements in Release v5.8

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited January 2014

    "Tesla Motors broke all of those rules Tuesday with perhaps the least rehearsed, most amateurish-looking press conference of any automaker at this year's Detroit auto show.

    The consequences? Its stock surged 16 percent.

    Guillen said Tesla sold more cars than expected at the end of 2013 and that the company would experience "reckless growth" in 2014. He later sent an e-mail saying he had intended to use the word "relentless."

    All the wrong things pay off for Tesla (Automotive News)

  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,095

    16% lol...definite legitimate market forces in action.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    it's scary, really.

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited January 2014

    Edmunds just reserved a Model X for the long term fleet. 2015 maybe?

    (For $40,000, you can reserve one too).

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    Oh goodie! Maybe this'll be the one that'll turn the company into a profit-maker. The only test I want to hear about is RANGE under realistic conditions--that is, rainy day, heater on, lights on.

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454

    Just to clarify, you're referring to car sale profits, not stock speculation profits, right? :p

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    yes, you know...you make more money than you spend--that kind of profit.

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited February 2014

    "Toss in Toyota’s Lexus luxury division, and the data is even more startling. More than a quarter -- 25.3% -- of Tesla buyers in the United States owned a Toyota-manufactured vehicle at the time of their Model S purchase."

    Who buys Teslas? Prius owners and drivers of exotic cars (LA Times)

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    Forbes recently reported that a used Model S could command much more in the used market than a brand new one. How long can that continue? Meanwhile, today Tesla stock blow past its old high of 194, set in September, before the fires.

  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,095

    Grey market exports to China, maybe? As I don't know if a used purchase qualifies for the tax gift.

    Funny how the market casino operates.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    The most common explanation for the Model S strong resale values is that demand for new ones greatly exceeds the battery constrained supply. Regardless of the reason, it suggests that Tesla has room to raise prices on the S if the price for used ones is more than a short term aberration.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    Also, the number of used Teslas sold is small (probably no more than a couple per day), and most probably have fewer than 10,000 miles on them, so the resale values are less meaningful than for competing luxury models.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    I think Tesla's used car sales are cannibalizing their new car sales--that's my guess. Once again, until this company puts out a 300 mile range family sedan in the $35K range, they aren't going to exist. I think they know this full well themselves, so I'm no genius.

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454

    Tesla shares have gone from $38.42 to over $200 this morning before falling back to ~$196 at the close.

    All in a space of one year.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    Totally and irrationally nuts from the view of the sober investor.

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454

    Gamblers aren't known for sobriety. Sometimes you hit the lottery though.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    At least some gamblers DO KNOW the odds in the game they are playing, or at least the horse that's running. It's not "oh, that horse looks pretty, let's bet everything we own on him".

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    The bulls continue to dominate, as Tesla shares hit an all-time new high of 202.72, and closed at 199.63, a new closing high. It'll be interesting to see whether the price holds above 200 or sells off after earnings are reported next week.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    I don't see why anyone would even attempt to rationalize the price by looking at sales results or any other logical parameters. The stock price makes no sense whatsoever, so really, just make up a number. This is a faith-based stock we have here.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    "I don't see why anyone would even attempt to rationalize the price by looking at sales results or any other logical parameters. The stock price makes no sense whatsoever, so really, just make up a number. This is a faith-based stock we have here."

    I agree that the stock is overpriced, maybe by a lot, but a stock can remain overpriced for a long time. If we're correct, and the shares are priced for perfection, then the first time expectations aren't met TSLA could correct sharply. That could happen next week, when the company reports earnings, or not. We'll see. With Tesla, the major correction will come if/when people realize that Elon Musk, brilliant, foresighted and charismatic as he is, is not quite the automotive equivalent of Steve Jobs, Thomas Edison or Henry Ford. The price of Tesla shares includes a good dose of bullish certainty regarding Musk's magic, plus the risk premium of momentum traders. Eventually, though, earnings and the earnings growth rate always prevails. If Tesla is indeed a game changer, and the Model X crossover and the 3-Series challenger are as brilliant as the Model S, and range anxiety diminishes, then we can expect that long-term investors will be rewarded. In the meantime many traders will get hurt by the stock's volatility.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    I think it'll boil down to whether Tesla can survive until the next level of battery technology comes into play. I'm thinking 5 to 10 years for those uber-batteries to appear.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    I think Tesla has an excellent chance of surviving for the foreseeable future, since most analysts believe it'll be profitable this year, and more profitable next year. So, I don't see survival as being the issue. I see the issue being whether the stock is a good investment.

    One risk is that Musk's mega ambitions may run ahead of the company's finances. So far his ambition has worked in the company's favor, but that may not be the case going forward. For example, if Tesla cars are permitted to use the new charging stations for free, how can those stations generate a return on investment?

    Also, so far the only significant setback to the reputation of Tesla cars was those two (or was it three?) fires. The company did good damage control, and the setback was only temporary. However, given the complexity of modern cars and car manufacturing, it's reasonable to expect problems to crop up, with an adverse effect on the stock's price/earning's ratio. Often, significant problems, such as sudden acceleration, come out of left field.

    In addition, the more successful Tesla is, the more competition it will attract. BMW has done a great job of keeping the 3-Series out front, but will relatively tiny Tesla be able to compete with the industry giants? I think it could as a niche player, as Ferrari and Porsche have demonstrated before becoming part of Fiat and VW, respectively, but history is littered with auto companies that flourished for a period, and later failed

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited February 2014

    Porsche also saved its bacon by !gasp! making SUVs, to the dismay of many diehard fans.

    And that's next up in the Tesla pipeline.

    Unless there's a battery breakthrough though, it's going to be a tough road to go. And engineers have been chasing that better battery for literally decades now.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    I'm confident that a battery breakthrough will occur, since huge resources are being devoted to it by M.I.T., the major auto manufacturers, Google, Apple, and many others. The fact that it hasn't happened proves that it's an extremely difficult challenge, but the odds are that it's just a matter of time until there's a significant improvement in battery technology. The incentives are enormous, and many industries, in addition to autos, will benefit from smaller, lighter, more powerful and longer lasting batteries.

    We should also not underestimate the creativity of independent inventors. Someone, somewhere in the world, working in his/her garage or basement, might develop a battery that leapfrogs the ones currently (ooh, bad pun) available.

  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,095

    Maybe then there will be no special coddling tax breaks for toy cars aimed at the 1% and 2% alike.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    I agree. Tax breaks and special privileges for EV and hybrid owners are regressive and unfair to other motorists, in my opinion. They've outlived their usefulness, which was to encourage new, low polluting technologies. Targeted privileges are easier to enact than to phase out.

    To be fair, special tax breaks for the oil industry, and quotas for corn based biofuels should also be phased out.

    Just because there are more egregious misallocations and unfair breaks for certain select groups doesn't make these right. Certain lobbies have gotten too powerful in Washington, for the good of the majority.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    But you see? Everyone's comments are pure speculation. This IS a faith-based stock. "IF a new battery...WHEN they make an SUV...they are PREDICTED to show a profit"...it's all smoke and mirrors. At least GM has PRODUCED a new Corvette, a new Cruze diesel. Ford has a new aluminum bodied pickup...etc etc....

  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,095

    Not just the tax breaks for EVs, but tax breaks for toy vehicles past a given MSRP. Does the US not already have enough coddle-the-rich tax policy? It's who the breaks benefit, and if the benefits are needed at all, more than the breaks themselves.

    Oops, did it again ...call it a wannabe Ferrari maybe

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited February 2014

    This recurring rumor won't hurt the stock price.

    Apple held secret meeting with Tesla: San Francisco Chronicle (Market Watch)

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    @Stever@Edmunds said:
    This recurring rumor won't hurt the stock price.

    It could hurt the price of AAPL because unless Apple can acquire Tesla at deep discount from its current market price, it would dilute Apple's earnings and margins for at least the next few years.

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454

    Now reboot and think about Elon buying Apple. :D

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited February 2014

    That's certainly not going to happen. Apple's net worth is a gazillion times more than Tesla's. Well not exactly. Maybe 30X. How does a canary swallow a whale exactly?

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    I suppose nothing's impossible, and I have no doubt that Musk has a very vivid imagination, but that would be like a minnow swallowing a whale. Even with Tesla's swollen metrics it's got a market valuation of $24B vs. $485B for Apple. At the risk of underestimating Wall Street's creativity, I have a hard time envisioning how that could be possible. But wait, since Hollywood would salivate at making a movie of Musk gobbling up Steve Job's creation, maybe one of the studios could act as the catalyst to help seal this deal.

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited February 2014

    Generally, all you need is about 34% of the shares to control a company (see Ford's control of Mazda or Porsche's near swallowing of VW in 2009). As little as 5% can sometimes be enough. (Investopedia)

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    I suppose Tesla could buy Carl Icahn's Apple shares.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    The Tesla would make a perfect Apple product in a way---it's all shiny and nice, it's expensive, and it can do exactly what a product 1/2 the price can do :)

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454

    Tell me again what the reboot procedure is?

    2013 Tesla Model S: Stuck on the Freeway

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    Tesla reported surprisingly strong results yesterday, and predicted rapid expansion for 2014 and beyond, including battery production. The potential implications, including environmental and geopolitical ones, are significant. Should the established automakers be worried?

    Will the large companies draw a line in the sand at the prospect that the forthcoming mid-priced Tesla Model E may eat their bread and butter?

    Most of us who participate in Edmunds discussions are addicted to internal combustion engines. I've ridden in my friend's Model S a few times. It's beautiful, interesting, and has great performance, but it doesn't excite me. It just doesn't stir my passion as, say, a Corvette or Porsche would. For me, the quiet whir of electric propulsion, no matter how quick, just doesn't compare with the sound and feel of IC powered cars. However, many millenials, and those who are still too young to drive, may be more receptive to the environmental and low maintenance attributes of EVs.

    Your thoughts?

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited February 2014

    I'd love a "silent" runner that uses a "clean" fuel and is low maintenance. Even better if I can refuel it at home 90% of the time. Besides the price issue, the range and ease of refueling on the road has to get there before EVs hit a big enough critical mass to be more than a blip on the automaker's navigation screen.

    Hybrid tech has been around a decade now and diesels forever, but add them together and you may hit 10% of the current passenger fleet.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    @Stever@Edmunds said:
    I'd love a "silent" runner that uses a "clean" fuel and is low maintenance. Even better if I can...

    Hybrid tech has been around a decade now and diesels forever, but add them together and you may hit 10% of the current passenger fleet.

    The wild card, in my opinion, is a breakthrough in battery technology. That would change the entire equation. Absent that, EVs could match or even surpass 10% in ten years, if a network of charging stations becomes reality, particularly in large metro areas.

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited February 2014

    Battery research has been going on for well over a hundred years. Someone is finally going to say the heck with it and focus on a fuel that generates onboard electricity that runs the motors.

    You know, a hybrid. B)

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454

    "When I first sat down to write this post, I was all fired up, as I tried to picture myself in an owner's shoes. If I had to replace the engine on my car twice — hell, even once — I would swear off the brand forever. But after talking it over with some colleagues, I was reminded that the people who buy Teslas aren't just buying basic transportation. They are early adopters and willing beta testers of a shiny new piece of tech."

    2013 Tesla Model S: Is the Third Drive Unit the Charm?

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    EVs are a technological dead-end IMO as a mainstream product. Tesla will go on the curiosity shelf of history.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    @Stever@Edmunds said:
    Battery research has been going on for well over a hundred years. Someone is finally going to

    say the heck with it and focus on a fuel that generates onboard electricity that runs the motors.

    Yeah, I know, but cancer research has been going on forever, and progress is finally being made. You may be right, but would Google, Apple, M.I.T., Toyota, Nissan, the battery companies and others be investing huge amounts of money in battery research if they didn't hope for an eventual breakthrough? It may not happen, or it may be a long time off, but I wouldn't bet against it. Also, it's always possible that some oddball geek, somewhere in the world, could figure it out, by thinking outside the box, before the big money does.

  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481

    But battery research is not all for automobile applications--in fact, most is not. The EV is doomed IMO because it doesn't solve any energy problem, even IF you could geek your way into running it 1/4 time on solar or wind power. Solar or wind cannot support the energy density requirements of a modern industrial superpower. Once Honda and Toyota and Hyundai come out with their hydrogen cars, Tesla is going to be toast on a stick. Anyone betting on EVs is betting on the wrong horse, no matter how attractive he looks in the paddock.

  • hpmctorquehpmctorque Member Posts: 4,600

    The holy grail of battery development would be a smaller, lighter, cheaper, yet more powerful battery pack. I'm sure OPEC isn't worried, but a better battery could reduce oil demand, and the world's reliance on hydrocarbons. Unfortunately for now it just remains a hope.

    If I bought an EV I'd have to equip it with a snarling V8 soundtrack and a fake tachometer, to avoid falling asleep at the wheel. And what would I do with the time spent on oil changes, coolant and transmission flushes, etc.?

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