The Current State of the US Auto Market

stever · January 2014

On the Monroney stickers, the government 5-Star ratings are pretty conspicuous on the label. About the only section with a bigger font is the fuel economy section.

I don't know if it's voluntary or not, but skimming images of Monroney stickers, I saw one for a 2014 Ford Taurus with the IIHS ratings next to the fed 5-Star rating. A 2013 Escape didn't have IIHS info so maybe it's a marketing thing.

greg128 · January 2014

@suydam said:
I wouldn't consider a Spark over a Honda Fit.

Of course not...despite the fact that the Spark gets better mileage, has less road noise and a smoother ride (according to edmunds), has better consumer reviews and is $3000 less than the Fit. Oh, I forgot that the Fit is a Honda so it just has to be better than a US badged car.

suydam · January 2014

And forgot that the Fit has the hatchback practicality a lot of buyers want in a small car. And stellar reliability ratings. You can make arguments a lot of ways. My point is that I doubt that people who weren't inclined before will suddenly put the Spark on their lists because of this test.

greg128 · January 2014

In addition the Spark has a 100,000 mile powertrain warranty vs. Fit's 60,000.
Spark also has 5 year Roadside Assistance. As far as I can tell Fit has none. If I were shopping in this segment I would choose Spark over Fit.

robr2 · January 2014

@Stever@Edmunds said:
On the Monroney stickers, the government 5-Star ratings are pretty conspicuous on the label. About the only section with a bigger font is the fuel economy section.

I don't know if it's voluntary or not, but skimming images of Monroney stickers, I saw one
for a 2014 Ford Taurus with the IIHS ratings next to the fed 5-Star rating. A 2013 Escape
didn't have IIHS info so maybe it's a marketing thing.

I'm sure it's a marketing thing. Since the IIHS has nothing to do with the government, NHTSA wouldn't require the IIHS scores.

stever · January 2014

@robr2, if so, then what about the point that people won't pay attention to safety when they hit the dealer's? It's a hard question - get someone in love with a car and they'll rationalize the crash test results. But more people shop hard online first and dealer visits are down around half what they used to be. So a poor rating is going to win up in the con column on the spreadsheet, and someone may write off a model without a test drive.

greg128 · January 2014

@suydam said:And forgot that the Fit has the hatchback practicality a lot of buyers want in a small car.>

Spark = hatchback

uplanderguy · January 2014

Shifty, I don't think you could be more wrong on that, but it's OK...we'll agree to disagree. Wouldn't be the first time; won't be the last. I think that if people don't think Ford dealers tell their salesmen to mention that Ford didn't take the bailout, well....I'm not sure reality is coming into the equation then. I personally can think of, without trying very hard at all, several people who would only buy Ford because of that reason...including some people who previously bought GM.

suydam · January 2014

@greg128 said:

Spark = hatchback

Yes, of course, but what I meant was that the Fit has twice as much cargo space. Again, not my point.

Mr_Shiftright · January 2014

Telling buyers your company didn't take a bailout X years ago sounds like someone applying for a job and saying "and I got an A in conduct in elementary school". I think you'd get nothing but blank stares. It may be of interest to you or me, but in the critical arena of the showroom floor, with only so much time to land the fish, it's a pretty far-fetched selling point IMO. It almost sounds desperate to me.

Regarding safety ratings, we'd all agree that a very negative rating can hurt, but I think only within the time frame that the media beats their drums about it. After the story has passed, the difference between the number of stars goes right over most buyers' heads I think. No ugly, cramped car is going to sell based solely on safety, not with 10 stars.

If anything, reports like this about "small cars being dangerous" has an overall negative effect on ALL small cars, even ones with good ratings. It's the generalization that people retain, I think, not the difference between a Spark and a Fit's star ratings.

e.g. SUVs tend to roll over;

suydam · January 2014

I definitely agree. I do think the other car manufacturers will step up to the plate and design safer small cars going forward. And that's a good thing.

andre1969 · January 2014

@uplanderguy said:
I personally can think of, without trying very hard at all, several people who would only buy Ford because of that reason...including some people who previously bought GM.

I've also heard a few people mention the bailout thing and use it as an excuse to slam GM, and Chrysler. One of my roommates has even mentioned it a few times. However, I just asked him if he'd buy a Ford over GM or Chrysler because of the bailout thing. He said he would choose a Ford, but because he's a Ford guy; the bailout has nothing to do with it. In fact, if the situation had been reversed and Ford had been bailed out and Chrysler/GM had not, he'd still back up Ford!

And, on the flip side, I remember one of my friends saying he was thinking about buying a GM product, because he wanted to help them out! I bet that's something you don't hear every day!

stever · January 2014

My next door neighbor had an older Olds Bravada when we moved here in 2010. He got a new Edge shortly after we moved in and made a point of telling me he'd never buy a GM again.

iluvmysephia1 · January 2014

We may not hear that every day, andre1969, but I can imagine a lot of American people thinking strongly along those lines. The thing is, the old-school Big 3 will probably all give you a pretty good rig these days.

I would also choose a new Ford if I bought American, but it wouldn't be a Mustang. I'd go for a Fiesta ST (possibly in that hot new orange color they're painting it) or a Focus ST. Don't know if the Fiesta ST is big enough for us. If I bought Mopar I'd probably buy a Dart. I am a car guy, and although a '64 Ford pickup would be cool in restored form, I can't ever see myself forking over the dough for one. I can always rent a truck if I need ta dump the old couch in the back yard off at the dump, know what I mean?

58% of all my vehicle purchases have been Ford's.

andre1969 · January 2014

If I was going for a midsized car, I could see myself in a Fusion. I think they're fairly nice for the most part, although there's something about the taillights I don't care for. And I'm sure you're right in that any of the domestic nameplates are competent, at least. Even the Chrysler 200 and Dodge Avenger, which are probably the bottom of the barrel in terms in midsized cars, aren't too bad. And you can get them for a steal, which is probably something that's been hurting the Dart's sales.

I've never owned a Ford, but I wouldn't be opposed to it.

iluvmysephia1 · January 2014

Truth about the Dodge Avenger, I think it was a Dodge Magnum that our son rented to drive from Tucson to Kingman, AZ, in the early summer of 2010. I asked him what he thought of his rental, he said it was a strong and sure ride. He only was in it for about 2 1/2 hours, but, I like to ask people about the cars they drive. I value a common man's opinion on a rig more than a reviewer. Car reviewers have hidden agendas, it seems.

As for the new Chrysler 200 styling-wise I think they've improved upon the last edition. It still doesn't knock my socks off in the looks department, but it's not a bad looking car at all. As for the handling, engine power and ride, I wouldn't knock it till I tried it. Might be pretty nice. The new Chrysler 200 looks pretty good in the white color. Even though they taught us in school in the late 60's in the Edmonds School District (15 miles north of Seattle) that white and black are not colors. No kidding, they told us that and they wanted us ta believe it, too.

uplanderguy · January 2014

Shifty, I can only assume our differences in opinion on the bailout have to do with California versus Ohio. It seems very apparent to me that Ford salesmen would be told to mention that.

stever · January 2014

People (mostly) don't like to hear a salesperson simply knocking the competition instead of comparing and touting the benefits of their own product; if a Ford salesman tried to pull that on me, I'd remind her that Ford went to DC and argued on Chrysler's and GM's behalf for the bailout.

uplanderguy · January 2014

Like it or not, I can't believe there isn't a Ford dealer in the country that wouldn't suggest that that was one thing for them to bring up during the 'sell'.

circlew · January 2014

GM Market Share Full Year 2012 17.9% 2013 17.9%
Ford Market Share Full Year 2012 15.5% 2013 15.9%

circlew · January 2014

Cadillac wins award for its ELR plug-in luxury car

Cogan says Re-gen on Demand enhances driving dynamics. It induces re-gen drag that allows decelerating before turns. Drivers often don't need to brake. The engine does it for them.

"Regen on Demand is one of the key systems enabling the Cadillac ELR to merge performance with efficiency in a dynamic new way," said Jim Vurpillat, director of emerging markets at Cadillac, in a statement. "Putting regenerative braking at the driver's fingertips supports the ELR's 340-mile total driving range while also adding a fun-to-drive element."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/01/26/cadillac-elr-award/4823665/

Mr_Shiftright · January 2014

@uplanderguy said:
Like it or not, I can't believe there isn't a Ford dealer in the country that wouldn't suggest that that was one thing for them to bring up during the 'sell'.

I'd bet against you on that. Trashing your competition is generally not an encouraged practice in modern sales training. It's a no-no in any professionally run store.

uplanderguy · January 2014

OK, if you say so.

andre1969 · January 2014

I'd think it would be hard to trash the competition these days, simply because there are many dealerships that sell a wide variety of brands. For instance, the dealer I bought my Intrepid from also sold Chevies at the time from the same location. It was two different showrooms, but they were side by side. And I remember another local dealer used to sell Dodges and Pontiacs, and those WERE in the same showroom. I remember some friends of the family going there in 1981, and Mom and I went along. There was a Catalina and a St. Regis on the showroom floor, and I sat in both of them. I was hoping these friends would buy one of those two cars, but they ended up with an Aries wagon.

Now, the dealer I bought my Intrepid from did sort of jokingly slam Chevy, once. I was down there for whatever reason, and noticed that there were a lot more Dodges out on the lot than Chevies, and commented on it. One of the sales guys said something along the lines of "Oh, people still buy Chevies?!" Interestingly, they did stop selling Chevies at one point, and switched over to Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep. And then, as we were going through the Great Recession, they dropped Mopar entirely, citing their worries about Mopar going through too many owners, becoming unstable, and their seeming inability to bring a competent small, efficient car to the market. I think that was about 5 years ago, and to this day, that dealership is still sitting empty. Wonder if they ever regretted dumping their Mopar franchise, as it seems like they're doing okay again.

BTW, that same dealership group also sells Ford, Lincoln, Nissan, Infiniti, Lexus (but not Toyota), Honda, Subaru, Hyundai, and Volkswagen. So, they have a pretty wide selection.

stever · January 2014

@andre1969 said:
Wonder if they ever regretted dumping their Mopar franchise

Maybe it wasn't their choice.

Mr_Shiftright · January 2014

@uplanderguy said:
OK, if you say so.

Not me...just passin' on what the sales pros advise. Let every car salesman take his best shot.

uplanderguy · January 2014

Where I live, the same guy owns the Ford and Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep franchises, but in separate locations. Neither of the two nearest Chevy dealerships have Ford. The one Chevy store is owned by a guy who owns three Chevy dealerships, and the other is owned by a guy who has a separate Hyundai dealership in another town.

andre1969 · January 2014

@Stever@Edmunds said:
Maybe it wasn't their choice.

Oh, this wasn't one of those forced shut-downs that resulted from the bailouts, but rather the dealer's choice. At least, that's what they said in the email they sent out. I saved it for posterity, but it's probably so buried it would take awhile to find it.

We gave that dealer a bit of business over the years. My Mom bought her '86 Monte Carlo there. My uncle bought a used '94 GMC Sierra and a new '97 Silverado from them. I bought my Intrepid from them and my Dad bought his used '03 Regal there. One of my friends bought his '06 Xterra from their Nissan dealership.

andre1969 · January 2014

Now that I think back on it, before my buddy bought his '06 Xterra, he looked at an Equinox as well. I went with him for both test drives. I do remember the Chevy salesman pointing out a few potential flaws in the Xterra, however, they were all valid. Mainly, lower fuel economy, a rougher ride, possibly more tire noise, and more expensive tires when it's time to replace them.

I can't remember if the Nissan salesman said anything derogatory about the Equinox or not, though.

suydam · January 2014

Discussing pros and cons of a competing model is different than trashing an entire brand.

uplanderguy · January 2014

I'm not sure saying "...and of course you remember we didn't take the bailout" is precisely "trashing another brand".

stever · January 2014

@andre1969, knowing how strong the dealer lobby is, I bet your right. Even with the bankruptcies, it was hard for GM and Chrysler to dump dealers.

@suydam, when we were looking hard at the '99 Quest, the salesguy gave me the "comparo book" to flip through. It was intended to be a sales tool and listed all the pros and cons of the Quest vs the Odyssey, Sienna, Caravans, etc. The warts were plainly stated with suggestions on how to try to explain them away. The salesguy was very open and willing to share anything - guess he knew that the internet was happening even though '98 was still early days in lots of ways.

The fact that the AG's office had hammered the dealership into a consent decree the week before for ripping people off probably had nothing to do with the guy's attitude. And the fact that he went to the Jeep dealer crosstown a week later probably didn't mean anything either.

suydam · January 2014

I found cross shopping the Accord and Altima this year both dealerships knew their competition very well and did have comparos to make. I didn't mind though, as I was mentally making my own. And both said that they are very similar and it depends on what you are looking for.

Mr_Shiftright · January 2014

Trashing or insulting the competition is, so say the pros, a sign of weakness to the client. He wonders why you fear the competition so much as to denigrate them. I think showing some crash test results or making copies of a comparison test from a magazine, would work okay.

tlong · January 2014

@MrShift@Edmunds said:
Trashing or insulting the competition is, so say the pros, a sign of weakness to the client. He wonders why you fear the competition so much as to denigrate them. I think showing some crash test results or making copies of a comparison test from a magazine, would work okay.

Totally agree, but when you assume this isn't happening, I think you are putting a higher degree of capability and professionalism on car salesmen en masse than is warranted, based upon some of the examples I've seen.

Mr_Shiftright · January 2014

Of course it happens. It just doesn't appear in programs that train a sales force. But hey, when a salesperson is hungry, and not making money, one is apt to try anything--especially when the sales manager is cranking up the pressure.

dieselone · January 2014

I've worked in sales in various industries and capacities for a long time. Trashing the competition is a huge turn off to me. I'd never work for a place that promoted it and I won't buy from a salesperson who does.

IMO, if you have to bad mouth your competitors, it means you don't have much good to say about your own product.

It's not a failure to admit that a competing product may have some advantages over your own product. That's where sales skills come into play.

I shopped several dealers and brands before I bought my Ram. I didn't run into anyone who blatantly trashed their competitors, most of the sales people new their product well enough and simply stuck to where theirs stood out.

As for the bailout thing. I've definitely talked to people who claim they won't buy a GM product due to the bail out, but I never heard a sales person bring it up. But it wouldn't shock me either. Particularly in rural/conservative areas.

andre1969 · January 2014

@dieselone said:
I shopped several dealers and brands before I bought my Ram. I didn't run into anyone who blatantly trashed their competitors, most of the sales people new their product well enough and simply stuck to where theirs stood out.

The other Monday when I had my Ram at the dealer getting an oil change, I struck up a conversation with a salesman. I mentioned that I liked my truck for the most part, but that I thought its transmission was one of its weak points. I told him that I didn't like the way it sometimes had to "think about it" before shifting, and sometimes seemed like it didn't know which gear to go into. And I mentioned how sometimes the older 3-speed automatics seemed a lot more responsive.

He had a cute little response to that. He said "Well, when you go into Baskin Robbin's with their 31 flavors, it's going to take you longer to pick the one you want, right?" To which I said "Not if I go in knowing I want mint chocolate chip!" He sort or stumbled after that. I also stumped him, inadvertently, when I asked him about the 3.2 that was in the Cherokee on their sales floor. I asked him if it was an all-new engine or based on the 3.6. He didn't know, but I didn't hold that against him. I told him I could look it up online. BTW, now that I think about it, that Cherokee was the reason why I went off on the transmission tangent. That sucker had a 9-speed. Seriously? They need NINE speeds these days? For a cute-ute?! I'm sure there has to be a diminishing point of return at some point.

Michaell · January 2014

@andre1969 said:
I also stumped him, inadvertently, when I asked him about the 3.2 that was in the Cherokee on their sales floor. I asked him if it was an all-new engine or based on the 3.6. He didn't know, but I didn't hold that against him. I told him I could look it up online.

It is my understanding that the 3.2 is a cut-down version of the 3.6 Pentastar engine.

imidazol97 · January 2014

@andre1969 said: That sucker had a 9-speed. Seriously? They need NINE speeds these days?

I can only imagine the cost to repair or replace that transmission when it fails.

andre1969 · January 2014

Yeah, I looked it up when I got home. The 3.2 is a 3.6 with a smaller bore...3.6" versus 3.8". Same 3.3" stroke. And yeah, I have a feeling that as we get into more and more speeds, it's going to be much easier to "total out" a vehicle simply because of a transmission failure.

dieselone · January 2014

I never drove a Ram with the 6 speed, but I will say the 8 speed in mine is by far the best auto trans I've owned or driven. It shifts quick, smooth, and rarely gets caught of guard. It almost seems like it can predict how I'm driving. It's nice to have an ideal gear ratio for most situations. The 6 speed in my wife's Taurus is slow to shift and clunky compared to the ZF 8 speed in the Ram. I'm almost at 10k miles and it has yet to misbehave in any way.

As for repair/replacement costs, I'm not worried about it. The same comments were made about 6 speeds and I never had a repair issue with the 3, 6 speeds we've had in our fleet. The 6 speed in my Expedition went over 3x the mileage of the 4 speed in my Suburban, the Expe had 130k miles on it when I traded it in, the the 6 speed trans still worked as good as new.

FWW, Alpar states the retail replacement price of the ZF 8 speed is around $4k.

andre1969 · January 2014

One reason I might have trouble with the 6-speed in my Ram is simply because I'm too used to driving those older 3-speeds in cars like my New Yorkers, Silverado, LeMans, and Catalina. Usually, where the Ram seems to annoy me is in passing situations where I don't need too much power. I'll give it a little gas to merge over into the next lane, but it won't accelerate, so then I give it more gas, and finally it decides to kick in, downshift more than I wanted it to, and suddenly it's taking off like a bat outta hell. With the older 3-speeds, give them a little gas and they'd start accelerating immediately, in top gear, and if I needed more speed and punched it, they'd downshift to second, and would do it more more quickly than the Ram seems to. Sure, the Ram is a lot faster than any of those old cars in absolute terms, but in some situations it just seems slower to react. FWIW, I have the same complaint with the 5-speed in my buddy's 2006 Xterra.

I'd guess though, that if I used it for towing, hauling heavy loads, etc, I'd appreciate those additional gears a bit more! And, if I didn't drive those old cars on a regular basis and the Ram was pretty much all I drove, I'd probably adjust to it more.

I'm curious now, to see how the 8-speed in the Ram would feel. And, I guess I am needlessly worried about repair costs, since they don't break down like they used to. I remember one big jump was when they started going from 3- to 4-speed automatics. I've had mechanics tell me that something like the old Torqueflite in my New Yorkers, or the THM350 in the LeMans or Silverado, would be around $650-700 to rebuild. The 4-speed 4L60E or whatever it was called, in my uncle's '97 Silverado, was $1860 to rebuild. I've also heard mechanics say that the 4-speeds automatics used in the likes of the old B-body Caprice, Ford Panthers, and so on, was around $1800. So roughly 3x the cost of the older 3-speeds. I think the transmission in my Intrepid would have been around $2500, and the one in the Park Ave would be around $1800 as well.

I guess though, that all transmissions are not created equal though, and number of gears isn't always a predictor as to how expensive they would be to replace.

Thinking back, I've only had to replace two transmissions on all the cars I've had. The first was a 1982 Olds Cutlass Supreme coupe, which was 11 years old but only had 61,000 miles on it. The second was a 1979 Chrysler Newport that was 18 years old at the time, and had about 230,000 on it. I don't know if it had been rebuilt before, though. Each one was around $650-675 which isn't much nowadays, but the Cutlass went out just before I graduated college, while the Newport's died as I was recovering from a bad divorce, so back then every penny counted! But, for the most part, it's not like transmission failures are everyday occurrences!

stickguy · January 2014

Pretty sure no one rebuilds (in the shop) these newer high tech trannies anymore. They get core exchanged for a rebuilt unit.

dieselone · January 2014

There is no denying the 8 speed shifts a lot. And generally for any decent acceleration, it has to downshift. I've gotten used to the shifting. It's very smooth. With the ratios being so close together, you don't notice the downshifting much. Also, you don't have to press on the gas much for a downshift, so that makes it far more seamless.

I think gearing in these newer transmissions do much of the work which the torque converter did in 3 and 4 speed transmissions. With so many ratios, you don't need a torque converter with a lot of slip/stall. That also means the transmission won't heat up as much, since the TQ is locked a lot more and doesn't have much of a stall speed (an unlocked TQ generates lots of heat, which of course kills transmissions).

My Ram has a digital read out for oil/trans temp etc. Even in 100 degree heat, towing 7k lbs, the trans temp never rose more than 10-15 degrees.

imidazol97 · January 2014

freep.com/videonetwork/3129245003001/Toyota-fails-fire-test-stops-sale-of-some-cars

Toyotas are hot!

tlong · January 2014

@imidazol97 said:
freep.com/videonetwork/3129245003001/Toyota-fails-fire-test-stops-sale-of-some-cars

Toyotas are hot!

That's a scorching tip you have there!

andre1969 · January 2014

Hurry Hurry Hurry, get 'em while they're hot!! We're gonna burn up the competition with our Fire-Sale prices!!

stever · January 2014

Guess every forum needs one discussion where where you have to wear a flame suit.

tlong · January 2014

@Stever@Edmunds said:
Guess every forum needs one discussion where where you have to wear a flame suit.

This thread is going into spontaneous combustion.

The Current State of the US Auto Market

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