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the biggest obstacle to the future of collectible cars is, I think, that nobody will want the cars we produce today, with the exception of a few rare birds and some of the limited production high HP models.
There will still be high-powered, thirsty vehicles, but they'll be sold in fewer numbers. And the auto makers will probably just do what they've always done...sell more high-efficiency cars, even if it's at a loss, to offset the more profitable cars.
For instance, a 2012 Nissan Leaf, which is all electric, actually has a raw fuel efficiency rating of 141 mpg. Maybe they do an estimate of how much fuel would need to be burned to generate the electricity it uses? Anyway, the 370Z gets about 27 mpg combined.
No, you'd think that if they sell three 370Z's and one Leaf, that average would come out to around 54.5 mpg. But, they use a weighted average, which takes into account how much fuel is actually used, and not just the average of the EPA ratings. I think the weighted average of three 370's and one Leaf would be around 33.9 mpg, if I'm doing the math correctly.
With a weighted average, in this case, I think they'd have to sell two Leafs to cancel out one 370Z. In this case, the weighted average would be around 58.8 mpg.
I'll acknowledge that I'm against government incentives, and special access to HOV lanes and parking privileges since the rest of us have to pay to sell vehicles that have low appeal.
GM just had to shut down Volt production again, they've sold something like 10k, hoped to sell 40k/year. So yeah, how many $60k - $100k Teslas are they going to sell?
I think that Automotive News has plenty of topics where your discussion might fit in.
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If you had $5K to spend on a toy (like fin's fintail), what would you get? Not a project, something that can be driven on weekends and nice summer evenings without breaking the bank for maintenance.
60's US iron? Something British? German?
What if the budget was upped to $10K?
I would probably buy the nicest 1977-1979 Cadillac, Buick, or Oldsmobile C-Body I could find.
For $10K:
I'd start looking for the nicest 1969 Cadillac Fleetwood out there.
The $5,000 car would be something impulsive out of Craigslist that caught my fancy. It could be almost anything. One example would be a nice old Prelude. On the other end of the specturm it could be a Buick Regal or Pontiac Grand Prix with the supercharged 3800.
A 1962 Ferrari 250 GTO Berlinetta recently sold for $38.1 million at Pebble Beach. That's a record price, and it seems like crazy bubble territory to me. How many super rich greater fools can there be at that price level?
It makes sense to me that today's super low interest rates are supporting classic and collector car prices, in addition to the stock market, but what other factors are propping old car prices? I look for prices to weaken, maybe significantly, when interest rates normalize.
Would you predict that classic and collector are prices will be higher or lower in two years?
Unless you have a collector car so rare, so utterly unobtainable, so magnificent that it aproaches the craft level of true Art, then all you have is a "toy" that can lose 1/2 its value in a day's time.
Stagnant or dying classes in particular are mass market prewar cars and earlier postwar mass market cars, as the enthusiasts have died off or are doing so. I think a lot of common prewar material was worth as much 30-35 years ago as it is now - not even adjusting for inflation. But had you bought a gullwing or certain Ferraris then, you'd be feeling pretty good right now.
So I guess rather than a correlation to the financial markets, it's more of a second derivative thing.
But to the question: Which car types are dying and which are stagnant?
Dying: 1920s era cars (Ford Chevy, etc) that are common makes & 1946-54 domestics.
Stagnant: Many 60s and 70s era "muscle cars" except the very rare optioned models. Also T-Birds, 60s "personal luxury coupes".
Dying: Hot rods, except the ones built in the immediate postwar era.
Stagnant: 2nd and 3rd tier collectibles, like Delorean, Avanti, Metropolitan, most "micro-cars"
What's Hot: Rare European exotics from 50s and 60s, British motorcycles from the 50s and 60s, American Pickups up to mid 60s.
It's a bit hard to tell in the shadows (I got a better pic of it at Hershey but haven't uploaded those pics yet), but it's brown, with a buckskin interior. I think it was vinyl, but can't remember for sure. Anyway, in those days I think vinyl was actually the upgrade, and I don't think the Catalina offered anything ritzier by this time...they wanted you to go to the Bonneville if you wanted luxury. It did have power windows, a bit of a rarity for a Catalina. It also had the 301-2bbl V-8, which is what the vast majority of them had, so nothing special there.
Anyway, they wanted something like $10-11,000 for it. The '77 Catalina is actually on my list of favorite 70's cars. And if this sucker was in a better color (preferably green or blue) and had a better engine (350, 400, or 403), I would've been temped to make an offer. But, not $10-11K! I was thinking this one might be worth $5-6k? If it was just the way I wanted it, I might be willing to go with $7-8K, although even that might be a bit high?
Another problem with a car like this, is that I'd want to drive it. And suddenly, the thing that gives it value goes away.
I would guess that the market for old, everyday cars from the 1970's, no matter how nice, isn't exactly going anywhere.
I think the malaisey big bumpers and detuned engines will always hamstring collectible values for cars of that era. Even many Ferraris etc from the time aren't particularly valuable.
Also, while the Pontiac 301 V8 isn't known for its durability, if it's driven 3,000-5,000 miles per year, and is well maintained, it's likely to outlast your love for the car.
So chances are, that 301 might outlast not only my love for the car, but me, as well! And yeah, I do think it's a car that I'd get tired of, after awhile. As for the 301, I've heard that as long as you don't overheat it, let it run low on oil, go too long between oil changes, etc, it's not a bad engine. Of course, you shouldn't do that kind of stuff to ANY engine, but some engines can take more abuse than others.
Will prices of cars owned by average collectors follow whatever happens to prices of the exotics?
http://autoweek.com/article/classic-cars/why-monterey-collector-car-auction-sales-were-down-and-what-it-says-about-state