Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM To Become #1?

stever · April 2015

I had good luck with my VWs and my one Toyota. Have never had my own GM, but my folks drove Buicks for years and so did the MIL. Oh, and my mom had a long lasting Impala before she got her Mazda. Only issue with the Impala was that the passenger door was held shut with a coat hanger. Bit of a leak in the rear glass but nothing worth worrying over.

I'd buy another Toyota, but VWs give me pause. Glad I skipped the Rabbits. Guess I've had the most luck with Nissans come to think of it.

gagrice · April 2015

Guess I've had the most luck with Nissans come to think of it.

What was the best NEW vehicle you ever bought?

stever · April 2015

Ah, forgetting the last year, the Quest. Part of it is because, after breaking it in for 4 months, we did the year long road trip and the seats were super comfy. Won't be another car I drive to Newfoundland in - twice.

My wife has endearing memories of the '82 Tercel sedan. It was peppy and fun to drive, but I think she liked it because it was the first car she'd had, new or otherwise.

Fun question. You?

stever · July 2015

How did Volkswagen conquer the world? (marketplace.org)

"Volkswagen's very public goal has been to be the biggest car maker in the world. And it reached that goal in the first six months of this year, selling 5.04 million vehicles and moving past Toyota.

Szakaly says Volkswagen’s aggressive global push adding factories and brands could work against the company: “A large system that produces a large volume of motor vehicles is also very expensive to run and it’s also very expensive to maintain.”

But that global expansion got it to number one. Mike Austin, editor in chief of Autoblog.com, says the company’s sales in China have been a major plus. In Europe, of course, it’s a slam dunk. On the other hand, he says the company is struggling in the U.S.

“They only have about 30,000 units so far this year,” he says. “It’s one-sixth the size of Toyota in terms of sales.” He says Volkswagen and Toyota are so close, it’s anyone's game for the next six months."

gagrice · July 2015

stever said:
How did Volkswagen conquer the world? (marketplace.org)

“They only have about 30,000 units so far this year,” he says. “It’s one-sixth the size of Toyota in terms of sales.” He says Volkswagen and Toyota are so close, it’s anyone's game for the next six months."

Poor reporting. VW sales were 30k last month total 2015 US sales for VW was 174,442.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/07/28/volkswagen-surpasses-toyota-worlds-largest-automaker-first-half-2015/30772509/

gagrice · August 2015

Seven months down 5 more to go. GO VW.....

stever · August 2015

VW is cutting prices - more pressure on Toyota?

2016 Volkswagen Touareg Gets $2,000 Price Cut; Touareg Hybrid Discontinued

2016 Volkswagen Tiguan Arrives at VW Showrooms With $1,365 Price Cut

berri · August 2015

GM can let VW take the sales title. They just need to continue focusing on their quality, improved product and profit margins.

stever · September 2015

Any sales predictions after the alleged greenwashing episode at VW and their defeat device on some of their diesels here in the US?

VW was in a slump before this news story, and not just slumping in the US.

"The decline in Volkswagen's group vehicle sales accelerated to 5.4 percent in August, from 3.7 percent in July, with the German carmaker citing tough markets in Latin America, Russia and China."

Volkswagen sales slide accelerates in August (Reuters)

hpmctorque · September 2015

stever said:
Any sales predictions after the alleged greenwashing episode at VW and their defeat device on some of their diesels here in the US?

VW was in a slump before this news story, and not just slumping in the US.

"The decline in Volkswagen's group vehicle sales accelerated to 5.4 percent in August, from 3.7 percent in July, with the German carmaker citing tough markets in Latin America, Russia and China."

Volkswagen sales slide accelerates in August (Reuters)

Sales declines in Latin America, Russia and China affect all major car makers, although not necessarily equally. For example, VW and GM are #1 and 2 in sales in China, so sales declines in that country will affect them more than Toyota.

stever · September 2015

Good point. I wonder what's going to happen to the auto market in five years. Everyone who put off buying a car because of the economy seems to be buying one this year. And there's going to be a real glut of lease returns working through the system.

stever · September 2015

"Volkswagen has announced a $500 bonus incentive for current owners of a 2001 or newer VW when they purchase or lease certain models of the company’s cars. The offer does not extend to the TDI Clean Diesel models. After all, chances are pretty slim that VW will be selling many more of those in the U.S. in the near future."

VW Offers $500 Loyalty Bonus (247wallst.com)

gagrice · September 2015

stever said:
"Volkswagen has announced a $500 bonus incentive for current owners of a 2001 or newer VW when they purchase or lease certain models of the company’s cars. The offer does not extend to the TDI Clean Diesel models. After all, chances are pretty slim that VW will be selling many more of those in the U.S. in the near future."

VW Offers $500 Loyalty Bonus (247wallst.com)

I would guess they cannot keep up with demand for diesels if they have figured out how to get around the EPA. Nothing was said about sales of current models. Only they are waiting for a fix before they approve the 2016 models with diesel. I would be surprised if it is anything more than a quick flash. It is obvious they can meet the emissions. If it passes the CARB test.

benjaminh · September 2015

gagrice said:

stever said:
"Volkswagen has announced a $500 bonus incentive for current owners of a 2001 or newer VW when they purchase or lease certain models of the company’s cars. The offer does not extend to the TDI Clean Diesel models. After all, chances are pretty slim that VW will be selling many more of those in the U.S. in the near future."

VW Offers $500 Loyalty Bonus (247wallst.com)
I would guess they cannot keep up with demand for diesels if they have figured out how to get around the EPA. Nothing was said about sales of current models. Only they are waiting for a fix before they approve the 2016 models with diesel. I would be surprised if it is anything more than a quick flash. It is obvious they can meet the emissions. If it passes the CARB test.

I don't think there's a quick software fix. VW already tried that and it failed.

Seems like they may need to change the software and hardware, which will be expensive and difficult.

Could it be impossible? Could VW be forced to buy back these polluting diesels to get them off the road? Hmmm.

hpmctorque · September 2015

benjaminh said:

gagrice said:

stever said:
"Volkswagen has announced a $500 bonus incentive for current owners of a 2001 or newer VW when they purchase or lease certain models of the company’s cars. The offer does not extend to the TDI Clean Diesel models. After all, chances are pretty slim that VW will be selling many more of those in the U.S. in the near future."

VW Offers $500 Loyalty Bonus (247wallst.com)
I would guess they cannot keep up with demand for diesels if they have figured out how to get around the EPA. Nothing was said about sales of current models. Only they are waiting for a fix before they approve the 2016 models with diesel. I would be surprised if it is anything more than a quick flash. It is obvious they can meet the emissions. If it passes the CARB test.
I don't think there's a quick software fix. VW already tried that and it failed.

Seems like they may need to change the software and hardware, which will be expensive and difficult.

Could it be impossible? Could VW be forced to buy back these polluting diesels to get them off the road? Hmmm.

In today's New York Times, it quotes some VW diesel owners as saying they want their money back because VW deceived them.

Also, while there are almost 500,000 non compliant VW/Audi diesel cars in the U.S., worldwide there are 11,000,000 such cars, according to the NY Times. It seems to me that VW will lose its 2015 sales lead to Toyota, and maybe even fall behind GM this year.

Another consequence of this diesel issue is that it'll put GM's ignition switch issue in the background. On balance, it'll help sales of the other major world manufacturers, including the Detroit 3, Peugeot, Renault and Chrysler-Fiat.

Longer term, most people tend to have short memories, so my guess is that if VW handles this mess well sales will begin to recover by sometime in 2017.

benjaminh · September 2015

Agreed. If VW cheated on emissions of its diesels worldwide, then the US problem is small potatoes.....

11 million cars that pollute in ways that violate laws? If true, that will cause major financial damage to VW.

benjaminh · September 2015

And the bad news, as many guessed, just got dramatically worse. From the NY Times:

"Volkswagen Says 11 Million Cars Worldwide Are Affected in Diesel Deception
By JACK EWINGSEPT. 22, 2015

FRANKFURT — The scope of Volkswagen’s diesel scandal broadened on Tuesday, when the company said that 11 million of its diesel cars worldwide were equipped with the same software that was used to cheat on emissions tests in the United States.

The German automaker said it was setting aside 6.5 billion euros, or about $7.3 billion, to cover the cost of fixing the cars to comply with pollution standards. That could have a big impact on the company’s profits, which totaled €12.7 billion last year.

The carmaker’s statement was its first admission that diesel cars outside the United States may contain the software that led the Environmental Protection Agency to accuse the company of deliberately evading pollution tests. Previously, Volkswagen had acknowledged only that the problem affected about 500,000 vehicles in the United States..."

stever · September 2015

Meh, business as usual.

"Forty-one years ago, Volkswagen paid $120,000 to settle charges that it violated emission-control rules by placing a defeat device, which deactivated part of the emission control system, on some 1973 vehicles." (USA Today)

From VW's statement:

"Volkswagen does not tolerate any kind of violation of laws whatsoever. " (via the Atlantic)

Translation from the original Deutsch - "dammit, we got caught again".

fezo · September 2015

Yep. They got caught again. A reasonable person would decide at this point that VW is not to be trusted. No number of fines and apologies will change the fact that they went so far out of the way to scam the system and to fool people into thinking they were buying environmentally friendly cars.

adios, VW.

berri · September 2015

Toyota is back to big sales now. GM and Ford got caught doing the same sort of stuff a decade or two ago. Audi has snob appeal. Unless there is more stuff forthcoming, I'd be comfortable buying VW stock for a longer hold.

texases · September 2015

"Hell hath no fury like an environmentalist scorned..."

stever · September 2015

It's just big corp as usual. And yeah, the stock is down 40% so it could be a buy. But the real stockholders are Porsche, Qatar and Saxony, not much is held by the general public, a bit less than 10% per Wiki.

fezo · September 2015

As far as the topic title goes, three days ago, yes. Today, not a chance.

gagrice · September 2015

Winterkorn quits while he is ahead of Toyota and GM.

Winterkorn, 68, was Volkswagen (VLKAY) CEO for eight years. The German company, which also owns the Audi and Porsche brands, had just achieved his long-standing goal of overtaking Toyota (TM) to become the biggest automaker three years ahead of target.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/23/news/companies/volkswagen-emissions-crisis/

hpmctorque · September 2015

"The German company had just achieved his long-standing goal of overtaking Toyota to become the biggest automaker three years ahead of target."

To put things in perspective, while overtaking Toyota and GM in sales was a notable achievement it was for the first half of 2015, and not for a full year. For calendar 2015 VW is likely to be third in world sales.

gagrice · September 2015

hpmctorque said:
"The German company had just achieved his long-standing goal of overtaking Toyota to become the biggest automaker three years ahead of target."

To put things in perspective, while overtaking Toyota and GM in sales was a notable achievement it was for the first half of 2015, and not for a full year. For calendar 2015 VW is likely to be third in world sales.

Winterkorn almost lost to Piech last go around as CEO. So he can say I got VW ahead of the pack, You all better keep them there. Of course this is over martinis and lobster. I don't think he is hurting in any way with about $66 million in severance. Still on the board of VW and dozens of other companies.

hpmctorque · September 2015

From today's New York Times (according to this article VW outsold Toyota last year, so what I said in my previous message was incorrect)...

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/25/business/international/problems-at-volkswagen-start-in-the-boardroom.html?hpw&rref&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well&_r=0

stever · September 2015

Looks like China will save VW's sales and steer them more toward hybrid and EV tech.

"China’s shunning of diesel cars may turn out to have been a blessing for Volkswagen, as it’s shielded the company from direct backlash in its largest market. The Wolfsburg, Germany-based automaker has counted on the country for about 35 percent of vehicle sales this year and plans to raise local production capacity to 5 million autos by 2019, from 3.5 million in 2014.

“The Chinese government has been supporting development of electric vehicles instead of diesel-powered cars,” said Steve Man, a Hong Kong-based analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. “China is critical for Volkswagen and the ban on diesel cars may make China a savior for the company and help preserve the brand’s good reputation in the market.”

China Pushes Ahead With Electric Vehicles Amid Diesel Scrutiny (Bloomberg)

texases · September 2015

?? But VW has diesels, and no EVs. How does this "make China a savior for the company"??

stever · September 2015

VW sells gas engines there and China is their biggest market. And there's research money and existing tech available that VW can get their hands on to work on EVs.

The US is toast for a while and the EU may not be so hot a market either. VW needs to look to China - cash flow from the gassers to keep the company afloat while they R&D EVs for the Chinese market. Then export the tech.

The heck with joining hands with FCA - go with VW/Chery as a joint venture.

gagrice · September 2015

Last check VW has about 20 hybrids and EVs. They don't sell well here because we have their superior diesels.

VW signed a deal earlier this year to build both EVs and hybrids in China. They have several already in production.

http://europe.autonews.com/article/20150604/ANE/150609930/vw-saic-sign-deal-to-build-evs-plug-in-hybrids-in-china

The 2014 Paris Motor Show is shaping up to be a showcase of fuel saving technologies. Citroen and Peugeot are showcasing compressed-air hybrids, while Volkswagen will reveal a "GTE" plug-in hybrid version of its eighth-generation Passat that boasts economy figures of 141 mpg (2.0 l/100km).

http://www.gizmag.com/volkswagen-passat-gte-hybrid/34034/

The Tiguan GTE is another SUV, but in this case a plug-in hybrid. It is based on the very popular MQB platform, which has seen ~2.6 million sales since it was birthed 2007.

The Tiguan GTE concept has 50 kilometers (31 miles) of electric driving range, presumably based on the overly generous New European Driving Cycle. “Its average fuel consumption (combined) is a mere 1.9 l/100 km; this equates to a CO2 emissions figure of 42 g/km,”

http://evobsession.com/volkswagen-tiguan-plug-in-hybrid-suv-unveiled-at-frankfurt-motor-show/

stever · September 2015

Good numbers article complete with graphs.

"The Volkswagen brand, a stalwart in emerging markets and in Europe, has been hurting in the U.S. since 2013, facing stiff competition in the popular SUV segment."

Volkswagen Diesel Scandal: Here’s How Bad Volkswagen Sales Were Before The Company Was Caught Cheating (ibtimes.com)

hpmctorque · September 2015

From today's Automotive News Europe...

http://europe.autonews.com/article/20150930/COPY/309309964

texases · September 2015

hpmctorque said:
From today's Automotive News Europe...

http://europe.autonews.com/article/20150930/COPY/309309964

Great article, gets into the technical details of the problem!

stever · September 2015

Since some owners are threatening to reflash the ECU after the fix, perhaps VW should be required to replace the firmware too.

gagrice · September 2015

stever said:
Since some owners are threatening to reflash the ECU after the fix, perhaps VW should be required to replace the firmware too.

A large percentage of full sized diesel PU trucks around here have the smog stuff removed. Straight thru exhaust etc. When CA started testing diesels people scrambled to put back the emissions gear for the test. And then remove it. Seems like a lot of trouble to me for a very slight gain in MPG.

berri · September 2015

I wasn't totally surprised with this diesel VW revelation because they always seemed rather smelly when I was stuck behind one. But I've got to wonder if this isn't just the beginning of these issues with other brands as well now that Pandora's box is open.

gagrice · September 2015

I still think VW will be the king of the mountain before 2018. Enough that I just put in a buy order on VLKAY. We shall see where it goes.

stever · October 2015

Short term results are starting to come in, at least in Germany.

"Demand for Volkswagen-branded diesel cars through German online car dealer MeinAuto.de slipped from 40 percent to 30 percent of total enquiries last week as the scandal unravelled, according to numbers flagged by Deutsche Bank analysts who described it as "the first 'tangible' number we came across in recent days".

VW’s diesel debacle may already have hit sales (CNBC)

Not so gloomy (yet) in the US:

"Volkswagen AG’s U.S. sales rose 6.3 percent last month, less than rivals’ but better than analysts expected, in a sign of how consumers are reacting to the automaker’s cheating on diesel emissions tests. VW didn’t give results for its diesels, including the 2-liter models that were pulled from lots."

Volkswagen-Audi U.S. Sales Climb 6.3% Amid Diesel Scandal (Bloomberg)

berri · October 2015

I'm thinking VW sales haven't been all that strong before this latest diesel issue, rather than because of it. There are some VW fans that like the German traits at a lower price point, but I think a fair number of consumers find the current VW's kind of Spartan compared to the competition. Longer term I'm thinking this may be more of a concern for VW if they want to grow in the US market: How do you keep German traits at a lower cost than Audi, yet throw in the frills buyers expect from Detroit and Asia? VW probably needs a major revamp over the next several years to increase volume or that new Chattanooga plant could become toast like the prior one in Westmoreland. PA.

stever · October 2015

More cuts.

"Meanwhile, Volkswagen separately said Friday it would cut a second production shift, this time at its auto production site in Puebla, Mexico, amid expectations the emissions scandal will slow sales. The cut announced Friday follows a similar move at a Volkswagen’s engine factory in Salzgitter, Germany, this week."

Volkswagen Starts Helping Customers Identify Tainted Cars (WSJ registration link)

carboy21 · October 2015

German government officials and politicians were in bed with the VW corporate management.
EU may have been created to promote and sell VW / Skoda / Seat cars to the Europeans by strong arm tactics !!
nytimes.com/2015/10/02/world/europe/germany-volkswagen-autos-merkel.html?ref=world&_r=0

VW scandal will spell the doom for German ambitions in the EU.

stever · October 2015

An article I skimmed the other day mentioned that the lobbyists are already hard at work in Brussels to mitigate the damage as much as possible.

texases · October 2015

It'll be very interesting to compare the costs to VW for the 5% of cars sold in US to the 95% sold elsewhere...

stever · October 2015

A reporter seeks to interview a current VW TDI owner who expects to buy another car in the next two years. Please email PR@edmunds.com before Oct. 7, 2015 with your thoughts.

stever · October 2015

"Volkswagen’s new chief executive warned on Tuesday that the financial impact from the company’s emissions cheating scandal would be worse than previously acknowledged, forcing the company to curtail investment at a time when all carmakers are trying to keep ahead of a rush of new technology."

VW Chief Says Automaker Will Scale Back Amid Diesel Emissions Crisis (NY Times)

stever · October 2015

It seems there's no love lost between VW and FCA. I'm sure Sergio would like to turn up the heat on VW and take some market share, since tieing up doesn't seem feasible. Only now, FCA has a potential mess of their own if the UAW shuts the factory lines down.

So, VW will have about 20% of inventory it can't sell, and FCA will be out of inventory if a strike happens and lasts any significant amount of time. GM is a bit at risk since they have the UAW to worry about.

That leaves Toyota in the catbird seat eh?

gagrice · October 2015

stever said:
It seems there's no love lost between VW and FCA. I'm sure Sergio would like to turn up the heat on VW and take some market share, since tieing up doesn't seem feasible. Only now, FCA has a potential mess of their own if the UAW shuts the factory lines down.

So, VW will have about 20% of inventory it can't sell, and FCA will be out of inventory if a strike happens and lasts any significant amount of time. GM is a bit at risk since they have the UAW to worry about.

That leaves Toyota in the catbird seat eh?

Toyota has to be feeling pretty good about now. GM is going to have a battle keeping costs down with the UAW. Ford has already proven they will not take any crap. Just keep moving more production South. The US is a big volume low profit market for most manufacturers. I don't think that registers with the UAW workforce. I still have faith in VW, though a bit shaken.

stever · October 2015

VW is getting hit from all sides.

"Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV have provided some of their dealers with new trade-in and other incentives to help convince owners of older Volkswagen, Audi and other Volkswagen automotive brands to buy their new models." (WSJ - may be a registration link)

Auto supplier Bosch sued in Alabama for conspiring with Volkswagen (al.com)

VW's board meets today. Tommorrow is the US Congressional hearing.

berri · October 2015

I don't think that registers with the UAW workforce

I also don't think the UAW understands that Marchionne is not your typical Detroit exec. I think he is more like Caterpillar and if the union selectively targets his jewels with local strikes, he may well lock them all out and seek new employees like Cat did. Might get interesting, But my bigger concern is that because the sales market is up right now, Ford and GM may cave to the UAW and then end up in trouble again when the market goes soft.

Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM To Become #1?

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