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Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM To Become #1?

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Comments

  • texasestexases Member Posts: 10,685

    Think of the logistics to support 80 people up there.

    That'll be $$$ (or Euro...). But, with the long term oil production decline on the North Slope, and the recent oil price drop, I bet there are boarding options available at not too bad a price. Compared to 30 years ago, I imagine the on-site oil field work force is way down.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Lots of smaller drilling operations are folding up their tents right now.
  • berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    edited December 2015
    All the horror stories on China products and ethics, I'd be leery of buying a Chinese Buick or Volvo.

    I think the Chinese Buick's will probably be pretty standardized in content given the long supply chain from China. But I suppose it gives GM some use of open capacity over there to test these new models in the US thanks to the global recession lowering cargo ship demand and over strengthening the US Dollar. If the vehicles do well they can be brought over to a NAFTA plant. Actually, the exchange rate and recent UAW contract probably bring Canada back into competition for plant usage. Long term, the global economy will improve and shipping from Asia will become expensive, plus US ports will be backed up again. I don't see China as a really viable supply chain alternative for higher volume vehicles in the long run. The dollar will eventually drop back, while Chinese labor and currency rates will likely increase. Then you throw in the long supply chain with its costs and longer lead time issues.

    I believe GM had to keep Buick during the BK days because it was starting to grow in China and a elimination in the US market at that point would have hurt it's image over there. But I'm not sure Buick or GMC are really necessary in the US anymore. The old step up model approach has been long overtaken by the two line model such as Toyota/Lexus, VW/Audi, Ford/Lincoln, etc.. The big issue GM has is the number of Buick/GMC dealers, often nearby Chevrolet, and even Cadillac dealerships. Closing down those dealers is expensive and could also have some impact on revenues at a time where investors are paying more attention to top line growth and performance. So I'm guessing that as long as Buick and GMC are incrementally profitable, they will continue to exist unless US demand for them dries up.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    The gubernator just proposed a sales tax. If oil drops to $20 a barrel, the Russians will be able to buy Alaska back. Or even VW.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Not really. Demand for Russian oil has also dropped along with everything else, and they spend a bundle and a half on military hardware when they were flush. Not so flush anymore.
  • anythngbutgmanythngbutgm Member Posts: 4,277
    berri said:

    All the horror stories on China products and ethics, I'd be leery of buying a Chinese Buick or Volvo. >

    Regarding Volvo, other than the S60 Inscription which is the long wheelbase S60 (Niche product, probably sell 500 of them tops), they will continue to come from Sweden and soon, South Carolina.

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/sep/25/volvo-breaking-ground-on-500m-manufacturing-plant-/

    On a side note, I just read today that Aston Martin was toying with the idea of building in the states in the future. Great to see investment being made here.

  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    stever said:

    The last set of Nokians I had supposedly came from the Russian factory, but I don't think the tire guy really knew and I never can read the stamping on tires.

    Bit off-topic but kind of fun:

    Audi plans ice track to test cars on Alaska's North Slope
    (ADN.com)

    Over my 25 years in the Arctic I remember several auto makers setting up tracks in the winter for testing. BMW and Subaru were regulars. They usually made the track right in the middle of Deadhorse on a big frozen lake. The plan they have is in the BP controlled area of Prudhoe. No one given access that is not an employee with all the safety training classes. No tourist are allowed. Very interesting.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    texases said:

    Interesting about the Audi ice track - boy, that's a LONG way to go...just hope they don't hit a goose, lots of paperwork to fill out. Friend working at Endicott talked about how much work they went through to protect the geese so they could get shot by the hunters in the L-48...

    There are a lot of Snow Geese that nest out at Endicott. Also my favorite the Swans. These were early arrivals the end of May 2001.

  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450

    Think of the logistics to support 80 people up there.

    According to people I know up there the camp capacity is very large. Many more camps than when I retired 10 years ago. Business is booming. Operations expanding East and West from Prudhoe Bay. When I went to work up there in 1980 we were paying $131 per day per man for room and board with community toilet facilities. When I left in 2006 it was down to $60 per day and I had a bigger room with private bath. The food quality did decline over the 25 years. We always had single status.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    What seems to be happening is that the percentage of lower paying jobs is increasing, and high paying jobs is decreasing. This is according to the state of Alaska website. I suppose Audi is benefitting from that trend.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450

    What seems to be happening is that the percentage of lower paying jobs is increasing, and high paying jobs is decreasing. This is according to the state of Alaska website. I suppose Audi is benefitting from that trend.

    I think it is much the same as CA. I have watched the trades in both CA and AK go down for different reasons. In CA immigrants are far more skilled than people believe. Skilled jobs that should pay $30 or more per hour are being done for under $15 here in San Diego. I had a guy build me a retaining wall. He was a Home Depot contractor. He and another man did a great job for $250 a day, for both of them. They both worked other jobs and this was their weekend job.

    In Alaska my son was working construction after the restaurant he worked in closed. He was getting $15 per hour. NO benefits. He is back working as a chef in Oregon getting $13 per hour with benefits.

    If I went back doing what I was doing in Alaska here, I would be lucky to get half the $39 per hour I was making when I retired 10 years ago. More people willing to work for less. The Union trades are all but gone.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited December 2015
    That's why one has to laugh when you hear on TV: "Let's bring those jobs back to America!". Well, they aren't coming back. Those jobs are gone, lost to either downsizing or robotics. The car building industry is a perfect example.
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 10,685
    Recent post on another site caught my attention - the "Steam game controller" - factory in the US! Take a look, 100% automated, a few bodies around in case of emergency...
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Something like 700 laser-vision robots working at the Ford plant in Kentucky. And they are faster and more accurate than the flesh robots they replaced.
  • slorenzenslorenzen Member Posts: 694
    All this talk reminds me how glad I am that my son is training a a P.A.(physician's assistant).

    Far more face time with patients that the Dr. and get his weekends off(for the most part). His wife is an R.N., so they can work anywhere...

    He probably won't make what I did when I worked as a telecom guy for Hi-Tech company, but he'll do OK, plus his wife's income.

    Different world, eh?
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    always different and the changes occur faster and faster. You gotta stay on your game in the 21st century.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,092
    Downsizing, robotics, or long-term offshoring, of course. Can't forget the latter, although many wish they could.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I wonder if you could actually have a country that didn't make anything? Oh, maybe that's Switzerland?
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,092
    They make watches, chocolates, tax policies to aid evaders, and banking centers for crooks and monsters.

    They once made some cool cars with Mopar platforms, but I think Monteverdi is now long gone.
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760

    I wonder if you could actually have a country that didn't make anything? Oh, maybe that's Switzerland?

    They hoard the wealth of all the crooked politicians., gangsters., dictators from all over the World.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Ah, yes. Build it and they will come. Maybe that's why their streets are so darn clean....
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    edited December 2015
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Huh! Where do you think that big jump for Chrysler/Fiat came from? Jeep maybe?
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 10,685
    Jeep, I bet. Proves that CR has a very limited impact on sales...all the FCA brands were on CR's 'worst reliability' list.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    There's scuttlebutt in the car biz that FCA won't be solvent much longer. Just forum chat though.
  • texasestexases Member Posts: 10,685
    I just checked, the FCA brands were 5 of the 7 worst brands - at least they're consistent!
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    I don't think so. Some of their US plants are working full steam.

    I'd be more worried about Volvo and Jaguar. I don't see them lasting but a few more years at the rate they are going.

  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    They probably are all "safe". We've lost a few but so long as Mitsubishi is around in the US, there's hope for the rest.

    I'd add Tesla to your list too.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    edited December 2015
    I don't think so. I don't see Volvo as sustainable, and Jaguar is shaky. Tesla? Well that depends on what companies like Audi will do. Telsa seems to live quite well off its stockholders.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,092
    If nationalistic buying becomes a thing among some (and it is already), Volvo can maybe eke out survival with that group alone. Right now though, I seriously doubt it is running in the black, and no way is Jag or LR doing so.
  • berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    It's been a few years, but the last time I was at a Chicago Auto Show the trend in upscale cars on display seemed to include white leather seats. I recall that the Volvo ones were the only ones that were getting dark spots from peoples dark pants and jeans. Kind of turned me off on their materials.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Yes I think denim jeans were the main culprit there.
  • jpp75jpp75 Member Posts: 1,535

    Yes I think denim jeans were the main culprit there.

    My S60 has light tan leather seats and I was noticing yesterday that it has some blue coloring on the seat cushion from my jeans.

    I really like the car and how it drives, but glad I'm leasing it.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    edited December 2015
    Will GM ever move back up to the top? Will they be able to survive by importing cars from China?


  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Well most Americans "got over" their cars being made in Mexico.
  • steverstever Guest Posts: 52,454
    Moving to the top may not be the best goal. Look at how VW got there, at great expense and loss of reputation.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,092
    Mexico and China aren't exactly apples to apples.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    mangoes to pomegranates?
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760
    edited December 2015

    mangoes to pomegranates?

    fintail said:

    Mexico and China aren't exactly apples to apples.

    Highest selling iPhones in the world are made in China.

    I prefer Chinese made cars then made by lazy overweight overpaid thugs in Detroit.
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,092
    edited December 2015
    Phones and cars are even more apples to oranges than China vs Mexico.

    Highest selling iphones weren't designed in China, just more multinational overpaid irresponsible untouchable executhugs (if we're going to use that term, let's use it for both sides) taking advantage of exploited labor and a regime that's the grossest IP, social, and environmental offender in the modern world.

    I'd buy a Mexican built car before a Chinese car, just for what it supports. Mexico is a bastion of justice in comparison.
    carboy21 said:

    mangoes to pomegranates?

    fintail said:

    Mexico and China aren't exactly apples to apples.

    Highest selling iPhones in the world are made in China.

    I prefer Chinese made cars then made by lazy overweight overpaid thugs in Detroit.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Ah, so management thugs rather than labor thugs...well, okay.



  • berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    I don't see how shipping cars from China is a long term solution for GM - high freight cost, long supply chain and currency issues. I think it will primarily be low volume, more specialty or niche products that they import to the US.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Yeah, but a Chinese auto worker makes $2 /hr to start. That's about 1/10th of a GM worker. Do the math--that adds up.
  • berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    China wages are rising fairly fast lately and it won't be long before their workers catch on to benefits. If you do the math, I'd think Mexico would beat China for big items like cars. Less expensive freight, closer tied in plants for the supply chain and still fairly low wages and benefits. In the end, I don't think that the UAW and D3 were the primary impetus behind Japan Inc. factories in the US. I believe it was currencies and supply chain that drove it (at a politically opportune time as well). But that's just my opinion and I know this subject has a lot of differing perspectives.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Japan was also under threat of retaliation by the U. S. government if they didn't cut the D3 some slack. Japan was slaughtering the American auto industry at one point. I think that without government interventions Japan would have wiped the US auto industry off the map. If you doubt this, look at the British auto industry and what happened to it because of lousy cars and bad management and militant labor. Who owns Rolls and Bentley NOW?
  • carboy21carboy21 Member Posts: 760

    Japan was also under threat of retaliation by the U. S. government if they didn't cut the D3 some slack. Japan was slaughtering the American auto industry at one point. I think that without government interventions Japan would have wiped the US auto industry off the map. If you doubt this, look at the British auto industry and what happened to it because of lousy cars and bad management and militant labor. Who owns Rolls and Bentley NOW?

    US regulators very recently hounded Toyota about the unintended acceleration scandal and the CEO of Toyota had to come to USA and apologize in the Congress.
    Compare that to the free pass given to GM when the faulty ignition switches killed scores of people.
    Now VW is being hounded for their increasingly popular TDI engines.
    In the airline industry, the incompetent big three US carriers are running a campaign to hobble the highly successful middle eastern airlines like Emirates , Qatar airways and Etihad.
    It is obvious that USA cannot compete with the worldwide brands that are beating the crap out of the US companies.
    It won't be long before rest of the world starts boycotting American goods.
  • Mr_ShiftrightMr_Shiftright Member Posts: 64,481
    Well it only points to the obvious myth of the "free market".
  • fintailfintail Member Posts: 57,092
    edited December 2015
    Being hyperbolic, or just trolling? Every nation treats its own industries with kid gloves.

    Could be worse, one can look at Air Canuckistan which gets just as many complaints, if not more. Comparing any of the low cost - marginal quality - low amenity (do people really expect to be coddled on a $270 ATL-SEA RT?) US carriers (who can survive on domestic routes where the competition won't compete) to the state-sponsored Middle Eastern carriers who don't need to turn anything close to a profit as they can be subsidized by terrorist supporting states, is as apples to oranges as cars vs iphones. Using these as an example of the US not being competitive makes me wonder, maybe someone was offended at mention of how Britain lost it all when it turned its back on its industries, and will never return to leadership in anything but turning away from past crimes.

    "It won't be long before rest of the world starts boycotting American goods"

    LULZ, bring it. Neither Germany nor Japan are going to boycott American goods. It was a second page story in Germany last month, and people see it as something political, but not too important. The rest of the world will continue lining up for American pop culture, Mickey D's, Coca Cola, American personal tech, clothing, etc etc. The US still does "cool" better than anyone.
    carboy21 said:


    US regulators very recently hounded Toyota about the unintended acceleration scandal and the CEO of Toyota had to come to USA and apologize in the Congress.
    Compare that to the free pass given to GM when the faulty ignition switches killed scores of people.
    Now VW is being hounded for their increasingly popular TDI engines.
    In the airline industry, the incompetent big three US carriers are running a campaign to hobble the highly successful middle eastern airlines like Emirates , Qatar airways and Etihad.
    It is obvious that USA cannot compete with the worldwide brands that are beating the crap out of the US companies.
    It won't be long before rest of the world starts boycotting American goods.

  • berriberri Member Posts: 10,165
    Those US and Canadian plants let Japan build and sell a lot more cars than they were capable of shipping here from their home factories and facilitated their move into larger cars and trucks. The shorter supply chain saved them time and money and at the time of all that I believe the Yen was pretty strong, so US production was actually cheaper than in Japan. I kind of feel that D3 and their tactics backfired on them really. But US consumers benefited because the old Detroit oligopoly was overthrown allowing quality and value to markedly improve over the old days.
  • gagricegagrice Member Posts: 31,450
    I wonder why Toyota never did as promised with building the Prius here. My guess is too many parts that cannot be built with our environmental laws. They still have that empty plant?

    Made-in-America Prius fades into the future

    http://www.autonews.com/article/20130610/OEM01/306109991/made-in-america-prius-fades-into-the-future
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