High End Luxury Cars

stroudman · May 2005

It is interesting. The prices of diesel seem to be where they should be AFTER the refinement process changes next year, not before. It makes you wonder what the per gallon price will be once the sulfer content is reduced. ouch.

kdshapiro · May 2005

Yes, but:

1. diesels idling in traffic are notorious for sipping gas frugally,
2. much less electronics on a diesel than on a hybrid,
3. the gas mileage and 1,2 offset the higher prices
4. while I don't know for sure, I can only believe there will not be a 5K or more premium for diesel engines as there are for hybrids today.

Diesels have a lot going for them compared to hybrids.

syswei · May 2005

1. diesels idling in traffic are notorious for sipping gas frugally,
"in traffic" is where hybrids shine...sometimes the engine will be off entirely, other times you get some electric power back via regenerative braking

2. much less electronics on a diesel than on a hybrid,
That might be a problem for companies that don't do electronics well. I don't think Lexus and Toyota are in that group. The RX400h has an 8 year/100k mile warranty on its hybrid powertrain. Ever see that on a diesel?

3. the gas mileage and 1,2 offset the higher prices
Diesel costs more than gas currently...and the gap as others have said could widen

4. while I don't know for sure, I can only believe there will not be a 5K or more premium for diesel engines as there are for hybrids today.
The premium for hybrid today is 3k per Edmunds (as long as you want a well-optioned car to begin with) and could decline as the technology matures. The premium for diesel is 1k today per Stroudman for the E320 CDI. That will increase in 2007 due to new pollution standards. See the following column, I found it quite illuminating:

http://www.caranddriver.com/article.asp?section_id=27&article_id=9491&page_number=1

Diesels have a lot going for them compared to hybrids.

In the 2005-6 timeframe that is true (and diesels really deserve more press attention), but beyond 2006 I don't think so, based on the column referenced above, which suggests "It's hard to see a payback on a 2007 diesel car in the U.S. in less than 200,000 miles. That's efficiency you couldn't sell at gunpoint. And every cent that diesel fuel rises above gasoline pushes the payback out farther."

ljflx · May 2005

Good story. It's a pretty safe bet that diesels just will not make it here and it looks like the costs will be prohibitive for most except the handful of buyers that take them. Hybrids are going to come down in price as production ramps and pointing out high price differences in Lexus hybrids fails to take into account that the Lexus hybrids are fully optioned vehicles. Take out those options and you are down to $3K or so.

kdshapiro · May 2005

"diesels idling in traffic are notorious for sipping gas frugally"

Yes, except when you are stuck in a 1 hour jam and run out of juice and the hybrids have to turn on the motor.

"much less electronics on a diesel than on a hybrid,"

Most smart people would buy a German diesel over a Japanese hybrid anyday. Diesel technology is proven and efficient. Let's have this conversation in 5 years when these dang batteries start dying left and right.

"200,000 miles"

Yep, you could easily run a diesel for 200K miles without major work. How about a hybrid?

ljflx · May 2005

"Most smart people would buy a German diesel over a Japanese hybrid anyday."

On what basis could you possibly make a statement like that??

syswei · May 2005

Diesel technology is proven and efficient. Let's have this conversation in 5 years when these dang batteries start dying left and right.

Diesel is proven and efficient, but do you prefer a 4yr/50k mi E320 CDI powertrain warranty over a 8yr/100k mi hybrid system warranty? Maybe if you're planning on keeping the vehicle for 10 years or more.

NiMH battery technology isn't THAT new. It's been in laptop PCs for example for at least 10 years. I imagine that Lexus had ample reason to be comfortable offering an 8 year warranty on the hybrid system, and would be surprised if customers had problems in 5 years.

Most smart people would buy a German diesel over a Japanese hybrid

I haven't bought either one but you're welcome to go over to the RX400h board and tell all those folks they're stupid.

syswei · May 2005

Hybrid is just so awful...I guess that's why MB was showing a diesel-electric hybrid on the auto show circuit? After 2006, they'll NEED hybrid if they want to make diesel more economical than conventional vehicles; without it, you'll need to drive your diesel 200k miles before breaking even.

ljflx · May 2005

The "Google" guys both drive Prius cars. I guess they aren't as smart as I thought they were.

kdshapiro · May 2005

"Diesel is proven and efficient, but do you prefer a 4yr/50k mi E320 CDI powertrain warranty over a 8yr/100k mi hybrid system warranty?"

Is there a reason they need an 8 year powertrain warranty? NiMH batter technology has been around in laptops for ages. We (my company) have these batteries fail by the droves and lose their ability to hold a charge in a very short (relative) amount of time. I would expect the same from hybrids. Hybrids are new and we'll see what the real world experience is. That 8 year warranty might just be needed, and what happens after 8 years. Diesels after 8 years are just getting broken in.

When BMW introduces their new generation of diesels we'll see what the landscape looks like.

syswei · May 2005

When BMW introduces their new generation of diesels we'll see what the landscape looks like.

Fair enough, if you're going to buy I'd make it in 2006 if I were you. Maybe in 2006 we'll also know how much low-sulphur diesel actually costs at the pump.

kdshapiro · May 2005

Fair enough also. No doubt "clean-air" diesel fuel is going to ramp up much more quickly than hydrogen. However, we will have to see what the price at the pump looks like. I would think a huge differential between low-sulpher diesel and premium might be a big deterrent to acceptance.

michael_mattox · May 2005

MAYBE A hybred diesel is in Lexus future?...

designman · May 2005

2. much less electronics on a diesel than on a hybrid.

Kd Youve been singing BMW love songs ever since I know you. They cant do anything wrong in your eyes. All of a sudden less electronics is where its at? Who are you trying to kid?

kdshapiro · May 2005

I remember reading somewhere that diesel trucks use about 1/4 gallon an hour while idling. A mere pittance compared to what gas engines use. So the question is: Are there really efficiencies to be gained? And what about the constant starting and stopping of engines on the longevity?

I honestly don't know the answers, but it can make for interesting conversation.

designman · May 2005

Hybrid diesel. Definitely. Anything that eases the stress on fossil fuels until hydrogen is ready. The problem is standardization. This is why you have to credit Toyota in their effort to propagate the technology and help others assimilate it. If you ask me, they are going to be very generous with it. It's like... good karma, man.

(you have to pronounce "man" with a California accent)

;-)

blckislandguy · May 2005

Oac, what is hurting my brain now is the endless discussion/debate re: is the 5 Series and whatever Lexus one wants to also name a luxury sport sedan, a sport luxury sedan, or a sedan with sport luxury. Fugetaboutit!

oac · May 2005

There is reality and then there is fiction..... Fiction is how DIESELS will do when they get here, reality is how HYBRIDS are doing today ! These talk about diesel this, diesel that... is just that- TALK. See, talk is cheap... show me. OTOH, hybrids are so hot right now, you gotta line up for months to get a Prius. Toyota who is already awash with $$$ now mints them even more on a daily basis. Thx to having the foresight to see where fossil-fuel demand and supply will be today. Their huge lead in this area puts them in complete control of the market in the future. I double-dare MB and BMW to counter with diesel only. They'll lose big time. Diesel in the US ? Yeah right ....

As for Hydrogen-based fuel used as commonly as fossil-fuels, I'll say not in my lietime, and I plan to live very long too !!!

oac · May 2005

With all the talk about the GS v 5-series and sport v luxury, and how BMW is the benchmark for sporty driving, you'd expect that BMW will be the sportiest car in the sedan market. But, was I fooled when I found out the car crowned as the best sport sedan in America by C&D ?.... Does anyone here recall which car was C&D's 2005 Best Sport Sedan ?

Hint: Its neither a Lexus nor a BMW.

kdshapiro · May 2005

Diesels are in every part of the world except the US. Hybrid technology is not. Seems that diesel technology has already proven itself. That's not fiction. We know he diesels do in the long haul. We do know that hybrids have an 8year warranty. That says something to me.

While I'm sure that hybrid technology will get better in the next 10-15 years, diesels have a 100 year start on hybrids. BMW and other manufacturers have already produced winning diesel technology that's field tested and proven.

kdshapiro · May 2005

Hint: The best sports sedan is not a luxury sports sedan. The best luxury sports sedan is a BMW. If I were Acura I'd be embarassed that they didn't consider the TSX to an entry level "luxury" sedan.

In my mind the best non-luxury sports sedan is the Sti.

oac · May 2005

Notice that I was specifically refering to the US market for hybrids and diesel. Diesel has been in the US for over a decade, but does anyone care ? Nope. Neither MB nor BMW can pull it off either, imo. MB is conflicted with their bad rep on quality and reliability, and BMW has no track record here, none to build on. At least MB has a track record of diesel-powered cars in the US.

But I guess we'll see, won't we.

kdshapiro · May 2005

"BMW has no track record here, none to build on."

The have a global track record though. The same way Lexus has a globl track record. Just to indulge the conversation. Do you think if low-sulfer diesel is a reality and people see it in gas stations and, BMW goes on a marketing blitz to promote their new line-up of diesel based vehicles, people will be interested?

Maybe people who like hybrid products won't be, but most people understand diesel isn't a new technology, and diesel engines are less complex than gas/hybrid, and diesel engines go the distance and they are less expensive to operate than gas.

Now if BMW can keep the same pricepoint on it's diesel/gas vehicles, I think it would find a hot reception here.

michael_mattox · May 2005

I own a 05 Preis (wife's car) With a hybred when the car slows down the gas engine switchs off and it runs solely on the Battery ....at a stop light the engine turns off ...From stop the car always uses the battery...At slow speeds up to 30 I think the car uses the battery.

Since most of the gas in a gas engine is used getting the two tons under way...and in city driving that and sitting in idle uses a good chunk of the gas ...all that is saved with the hybrid....the marriage of a hybrid with a very efficent Diesel sounds great to me............I don't know however what problems there would be in making that marriage...If anyone can do it Toyota can.

We avg just short of 50 mpg. (49.something) in mixed driving...but the car has less then 5000 miles on it and I understand milage will go up when it fully breaks in.

oac · May 2005

Just to indulge the conversation. Do you think if low-sulfer diesel is a reality and people see it in gas stations and, BMW goes on a marketing blitz to promote their new line-up of diesel based vehicles, people will be interested?

I suppose that could well happen. Why not ?

BUT, isn't BMW known for their performance machines ? To now be a diesel-operator in the US will need some working the public into. BMW will have to spend quite an awful amount of money to convince the public in this. Do they have it in them to do this, or would they rather spend the money on promoting their sedans and SUVs as the ultimate in performance machines ? Methinks the latter....

kdshapiro · May 2005

Yes but the Prius has almost no get up and go. Now you might find it perfectly acceptable, but it's way to slow for me. So I'll forsake the 50 mpg and find something else that is more fun to drive.

kdshapiro · May 2005

People who drive the 330d in Europe have nothing but rave reviews on the car. No it's not as fast as the 330i but it gets 40 mpg. It's low end torque is supposed to be awesome.

It is well known BMW can make performance diesels. BMW will have just as hard as time selling these diesels in the US as other manufacturers are having selling hybrids. (I'll just add IMO)

brightness04 · May 2005

I drew a lot of heat for saying as much, but if you look in the new road &track issue, there is a blurb about the new M-class that says, paraphrasing, something to this effect. 'the vehicle credited with starting the whole suv-that-drives-like-a-car craze is back with a whole new model for 2006.' I didn't write the page # down, but it was somewhere in the first ten pages or so, and I'll check to see if it's on the web, it should be.

Since when were car rags considered bibles?? Car reviewers are mere mortals, and they get facts wrong quite often, including even basic facts about the cars that they are reviewing. RAV4 long pre-dated M class, and RAV4 drives a lot more like a car than any M class has ever been.

brightness04 · May 2005

You're right this is tiring, but what you're simply incorrect about what Lexus stated goal was. They said point blank that the 5-Series was the competitor for the GS, and that means sports sedans to people who keep up with such things.

That's flat out wrong. 5-series cars are not sports sedans. WRX-STi's are sports sedans, Lance Evo are sports sedans, TSX is arguably a sport sedan. . . even in the BMW family, 3 series cars are sport sedans, 5-series are luxury family cars. I marketing terms, 5-series stands for the market segment that is above entry-luxury, but not quite rich enough for the top end luxury. BMW has had success in this segment by giving a hint of sporty pretensions. That's the market segment Lexus is after with the GS series. Considering that LS is only a couple thousands more than 545i, it makes eminent sense for Lexus to have a GS that focus stealing sales from 530 and 525. If it means offering an option for buyers who want to spend $45-50k but finds BMW's ride too jarring, so be it.

brightness04 · May 2005

> It is well known BMW can make performance diesels.

The definitions for "Performance" are quite different across the pond. In Europe, "performance" means nimble handling, hence 520i and diesel. Whereas in the US, "performance" is first and foremost defined by power, hence BMW went through all the trouble it did a decade ago to come up with 545i, and never dared to bring diesel or 520i here. Diesel can't rev high, hence there is a perceived power deficit.

michael_mattox · May 2005

It is not built to be a sports car but it has plenty of spunk off the line...and will cruse easily at 80.

I would, of course, rather have a LS430, the Preius is my wife's care.....but....when they make that LS hybrid......I'll buy it....For me.

hpowders · May 2005

I tend to agree. I drove a 545 recently. My 325i outhandles it easily.

kdshapiro · May 2005

"The definitions for "Performance" are quite different across the pond. In Europe,"

No I'm talking about the defintion of performance of we see it here. But I'm not sure what your defintion is. Maybe you can tell us? I'll save mine for later.

kdshapiro · May 2005

Fair enough. I'll be talking a close look at BMWs new offering in 2007. I've been wanted a BMW diesel for ages.

syswei · May 2005

BMW will have just as hard as time selling these diesels in the US as other manufacturers are having selling hybrids. (I'll just add IMO)

IMO BMW will have a harder time selling diesels in the US than Lexus and Toyota have had selling hybrids. One, diesel doesn't generate the free advertising that the press is giving hybrid. Two, there isn't a buzz with diesel because it is not a new technology. Three, diesel costs more per gallon, and that price difference is likely to worsen. Four, with hybrid there is no question that you get a performance benefit; whereas with diesel, you get higher torque but lower hp...nice if you're towing a boat or something, but how many BMW owners do that?

The E320 CDI is an impressive vehicle (and I'd be tempted myself if I were shopping that size car and if it weren't for MB reliability and service issues), but how many is it selling compared to the RX400h?

ljflx · May 2005

BMW will have just as hard as time selling these diesels in the US as other manufacturers are having selling hybrids. (I'll just add IMO)

Given the waiting lists and heavy effortless pre-selling of Toyota and Lexus hybrids, and the need for Prius to triple production in order to meet demand - how exactly is Toyota having a hard time selling hybrids??

stroudman · May 2005

Good lord! I never said that what car rags write is the gospel. And my remarks about the SUV issue were meant to pertain to this thread...high line luxury marques. You could put all the leather, wood and power seats into a RAV4, CRV, et al, that you want, and it would not compare to the vehicles I mentioned. Like I said in the discussion, there are no absolutes. My point was simply that if I was as wrong as everybody seemed to think I was, then I was not the only one.

stroudman · May 2005

Anybody been on Autospies.com and read the scathing review of the GS? Yeesh. The guy is more than a bit culturally intolerant, to the point of being offensive, IMO, but his thoughts on the car are interesting. Sums up how I tend to view the brand.

kdshapiro · May 2005

Given the waiting lists and heavy effortless pre-selling of Toyota and Lexus hybrids, and the need for Prius to triple production in order to meet demand - how exactly is Toyota having a hard time selling hybrids??

Yes, that was my point. But of course, just speculation.

brightness04 · May 2005

> You could put all the leather, wood and power seats into a RAV4, CRV, et al,
> that you want, and it would not compare to the vehicles I mentioned.

There was nothing luxurious about ML320 either.

syswei · May 2005

About those batteries...did you know that the first-generation Prius was announced in 1995, and went on sale in Japan 1997 (and in the U.S. in 2000)? Do you think that Toyota and Lexus might have some inkling as to the long-term reliability of the batteries? Do you think that any car manufacturer would extend an 8-year warranty on something that it expected to fail in large numbers in 5 years, which would generate huge warranty costs?

That warranty is there to put customers at ease with a new technology. It is that simple.

syswei · May 2005

From Automotive News, "The chairman of the world's largest auto supplier has called for an end to the blame game in manufacturer-supplier relations. Carmakers and their suppliers share in the design and development of components and systems and should share the responsibility when things go wrong, said Franz Fehrenbach, chairman of Robert Bosch."

syswei · May 2005

From Automotive News, "Audi will build supercar to rival the Porsche 911...
Audi will build an aluminum supercar based on the Le Mans Quattro concept that was shown at the 2003 IAA in Frankfurt."

I remember the pics of that concept and think it was a beautiful car.

oac · May 2005

Just got on here to see that the Euro crowd have decided to move out and create a forum dedicated to themselves. Good for them. Maybe we'll actually be able to debate rationally without the hysteria.

Did anyone read about the joint GM-Toyota plans to build fuel-cell powered automobiles ?

See the article here

http://www.toyota.com/about/environment/partnerships/gm_exxon.html

Anyone knowledgable about fuel-cells to explain this to us ? Is Toyota giving up on gas-fuel hybrids, or looking to chart incremental market share on fuel-cells ? Is this a technology that will make it into cars by the end of this decade ? And what are the advantages v gas-electric ? Isn't GM supposed to be working with MB on a joint hybrid system ??? Which of these combinations (bio-diesel, diesel-electric, gas-electric, fuel-cell, etc) is the real deal going forward ???

ljflx · May 2005

Maybe this board should be renamed the Japanese lux cars since the Euro lovers have cut out. I saw stroudman had to take a shot at us though - unfortunately. I thought he was better than that.

GM/Toyota - they have had so many relationships over the years that I once thought they would merge. These days Toyota wields power over them, correction over everyone, and can call the shots but they are also trying to be more and more an American company. From what I've read Toyota is pretty far down the road on fuel cells and GM doesn't - for the time being - have the capital to do this alone. I also think that the only way fuel cell development takes places more quickly and efficiently is for some of the giants to merge or do JV's to get it done. I'm afraid it's 25-40 years away and gas or diesel hybrids will be the staples to get us there. But Toyota hooked up with Exxon (merely $60bln in operating profits there) plus GM means this could move faster than I think. That is some heavyweight group!

oac · May 2005

But I'm afraid itr's 25-40 years away and gas or diesel hybrids will be the staples to get us there.

25-40 years away !!! By then, cars will pretty much drive themselves and park themselves., won't they ?

Would we not be *driving* above ground circa 2025 or thereabouts, as these futuristic movies would have us believe....? Who would need any of these fuel types 40 years from now ??? I guess we'll probably be using some other alternative *fuel-type* in the future, maybe Hydrogen ???

And Toyota-GM collaboration continues to baffle me. On the one hand, Toyota is shooting for #1 in worldwide unit car sales by 2010 (saw an article in the WSJ last week talking about this wrt the new Hilux Toyota is rolling out to developing countries), OTOH, they are working with their competitor to bring new technology to the market. A competitor they do not really need, or do they ??? Baffling !

ljflx · May 2005

OAC - I had added some more to that post at the same time you were posting. But it's funny - I've done JV relationships with competitors where the battle is cut-throat on one-end and very co-operative on the development front, particularly new technology and new product. Toyota is pretty much a sharing type of company so I'm not surprised by this. GM would gladly drop marketshare for higher profits. Sometimes you've got to get smaller to get bigger. But again a relationship linkining the most powerful company on earth (XOM) with the most powerful auto mfr (TM) and the largest auto mfr. (GM) is some JV. They are already odds-on favorite to make this happen the fastest and best. The biggest problem that makes this long-term is the re-tooling of the whole infrastructture needed to support fuel cell vehicles. How do you transition to that day in the future when fuel cell cars start to be produced in major volumes while 99 of every 100 cars on the road are still standard gas hybrids (or possibly diesel hybrids). Then of course - you need 15 years for those percentages to reverse themselves. That's why it's nice to see Exxon in there so quickly.

oac · May 2005

I guess they call it *co-opetition*, a new (may be not so new) marketing term floating around these days....

Talking about hybrids and high-end lux, seems like the 400HP (estd) IS500 is a done deal and bound for the US market within a couple years from now. We already know that there will be a hybrid V-8 (400+HP) LS600. If MB and BMW brings in their diesel cars, up the ante on HP (>400HP) as both are determined to do, and still keep a very decent MPG on these cars, these would all be good for the market. What will happen to fossil fuel-based cars 10 years from now ? And by inference, XOM ? Are we talking extinction of the gas-engined cars as we know it today within a 10-20 year span ???

More questions and uncertainties than there are answers....

ljflx · May 2005

I just don't ever see diesel cutting it here. MB and BMW have to be real careful here. If they go with diesel hybrids and the market rejects the diesel they are in serious trouble in the US. Neither company scores well in reliability as is, so trusting them in a new technology with a fuel America has rejected is a longshot. I would expect them to bring standard gas hybrids here long before they bet the ranch on diesels. I think you'll see what you have today - gas hybrids replacing gas and a handful of diesels for the select tiny diesel market. On top of that diesel fuel prices will go through the roof in the future. Meanwhile I think gas will eventually stabilize in the $42-48 a barrel range. With technologies under development to limit the needs of fossil fuels (not to mention Congress already hinting at year-round DST) it is hard to imagine the market driving oil prices up relentlessly. Remember there is also a terrorism factor built into those prices that eventually will come out.

Over time the battery will get more and more powerful and start to handle the highway driving with greater efficiency. Lexus already sees it or has access to it which is why you're seeing the high MPG articles. This will make the fuel side (and the type of fuel) less and less important. We'll never get to an electric car but we will get to one that shares a much greater power performance when you are cruising at 70mph rather than idling in city driving. The electronics,(and we know who rules that roost) - I mean the real electronics not the I-drive stupidity - will increase in importance everyday going forward. I'd love to see Toyota's acquisition list.

michael_mattox · May 2005

I think all are the real deal...However Fuel Cell general use is 15 years away.

The any Fuel Electric ...in SUVs will be enormous...It takes the guilt out of driving SUVs...Helps American Manufactures...Big Big Saving in the oil resource...

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