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How many miles will the Mazda5 run? (Help me crunch this data!)
I'm new to the forums here and new to the Mazda5. My wife and I are in the market for our first minivan and I'm very tempted by the Mazda5. But I have one main question: Is it likely to run for as many miles as the full-sized minivans?
It's really difficult to find hard data about vehicle longevity, especially for a model that debuted as recently as 2006. I can't find any list of "dead vans," showing how many miles each had run by its point of death. (Junk yards should begin compiling this data!)
So what I did was to gather data of used vans for sale on AOL.com, comparing mileages of the Mazda5s with the Grand Caravans, Siennas, and Odysseys. For each make I included data for all used vans from 2006-2013, nation-wide. Here's what I found:
Grand Caravan (06-12):
12,836 total for sale
848 with 100,000+ miles (6.61%)
217 with 125,000+ miles (1.69%)
63 with 150,000 + miles (0.49%)
8 with 200,000 + miles (0.06%)
8,820 total for sale
653 with 100,000+ miles (7.4%)
186 with 125,000+ miles (2.11%)
47 with 150,000 + miles (0.53%)
4 with 200,000 + miles (0.05%)
11,395 total for sale
1,118 with 100,000+ miles (9.81%)
302 with 125,000+ miles (2.65%)
76 with 150,000 + miles (0.67%)
10 with 200,000 + miles (0.09%)
1920 total for sale
75 with 100,000+ miles (3.9%)
15 with 125,000+ miles (0.78%)
2 with 150,000 + miles (0.10%)
0 with 200,000 + miles (0.00%)
Because the Mazda5 provides a smaller sample size, so I also crunched numbers for the Mazda3, upon which the Mazda5 is based:
9,181 total for sale
240 with 100,000+ miles (2.61%)
61 with 125,000+ miles (0.66%)
17 with 150,000 + miles (0.19%)
1 with 200,000 + miles (0.01%)
(And now you know why my wife says I'm obsessing a little too much over this decision...)
To summarize: A significantly lower percentage of Mazda5s (and Mazda3s) on the market have mileages of over 100,000, 125,000, or 150,000 than the other minivans. Nearly 10% of Odysseys on the market have at least 100,000 miles; less than 4% of available Mazda5s have run that far.
So here's my question: What does this data say about the longevity of the Mazda5? Here are several possible explanations for the data:
1) Mazda5 owners are either rental companies which always resell at low mileages, or else highly-satisfied customers who are not yet selling their vehicles. They like them so much they plan to run them into the ground. Or perhaps we'll see a glut of 200,000 mile vehicles for sale in 5 years.
2) Mazda5 vans are surviving well, but a high percentage of their owners have growing families, and are selling them early in order to "move up" to full-sized minivans.
3) While the full-sized minivans are routinely used for long trips, the smaller Mazda5 is more often used for shorter commutes. Thus the average mileage driven per year is lower. (I didn't crunch that data...)
4) Mazda5s are showing wear faster than the other vans, causing their owners to ditch them while they have fewer miles than what the other vans can commonly survive.
I think explanations 1 and 2 are too weak to explain the data. Explanation 3 is appealing and worthy of further examination, but doesn't explain why owners are selling their low-mileage vehicles. And I'm worried that explanation 4 is all too likely.
What do you think? How much does the data suggest explanation 4? Are there other explanatory factors I'm missing?