Chronic Car Buyers Anonymous

stickguy

At this point, it’s really at the dealer level to steer customers that way. Only Ford has really done it at a corporate level, but only for the pre release on special new models (bronco, Maverick, Mach E and lightning.

There still will be dealer stock though for people that can’t wait. Plus, normal delivery on an order for models without production constraints is supposed to be 2-3 weeks, not months. Assuming we ever get back to normal.

oldfarmer50

Michaell said:

qbrozen said:

Just for kicks, I plugged in the wife’s van to get values.

Vroom, $12k

Autonation, $12.5k

ALGO, $13k

Carvana, $15k!

Just to refresh memories, this is almost 8 yrs old and has 76k miles. Works out to about $307/mo depreciation cost on a $48k MSRP.

And replace it with what? The custom van?

That’s the frustrating thing. If you sell your current car for some obscene amount you’ll have to replace it with an even more obscenely priced car. I’ve see some 10 year old trucks selling for just about original sticker. This situation is starting to get me worried. Even after the chip shortage is over the market disruption will last for years.

oldfarmer50

qbrozen said:

@Michaell said:

And replace it with what? The custom van?

Yes.

Also got offers on the Benz. $11.3k is the top and from Vroom and ALGo. I think it could pull $15k at C&B or BaT after the mechanic is done with it, but is it worth the hassle for a few grand?

But isn’t the reason you buy a car like that is the unique fun of driving it? Otherwise why would you put up with it’s finicky nature?

benjaminh

For those of us who like to look for value in our vehicle purchases, and discounts from msrp, the pickings are going to be very slim for quite a while it looks like. I'm glad my TLX is purchased and paid off.

By the way, after having lived them for a while now, my Michelin CrossClimate2 tires seem great so far. They really changed the handling for the better compared to the oem Goodyears, and seem to be significantly better and safer tires. I was worried that they might be overkill for dry pavement, but they seem excellent whether conditions are dry or wet. I assume I'll get to test out snow traction sometime in the next few months.

oldfarmer50

benjaminh said:

Since some vehicle makers have expressed a desire to move to a model where even after the chip crisis ends there are leaner inventories, and people custom order their vehicles for delivery later, I wonder why more isn't being done during this crisis to teach consumers how to do that.

There are some videos on youtube of dealers who explain how the ordering process works for Mavericks, or for Subarus, but it seems like Ford, Subaru, Honda, GM, and others should do more to advertise that ordering is now the new normal during this crisis. I feel like some advertising and videos explaining how your previous expectations of test driving your vehicle and driving that one home that day will need to be altered for at least a while, and maybe long term. And so, here are the steps for ordering your vehicle—test drive a similar new or used vehicle that is on the lot, work with your salesperson and at home to "build your own," put down a small deposit if needed to secure your order, wait 2-3 months, and then take delivery of your custom-made vehicle. I feel like they should explain the steps and play up the positives of this—that you get the exact options and color you want, and avoid any dealer-installed options you don't want, and so on. Maybe that's happening, but so far I haven't seen much of it. Sales are constrained by production for now, but it seems like a la Ford with the Maverick those who encourage and make transparent the custom-ordering process might gain some market share.

I wouldn’t have a problem with that kind of ordering system if it meant getting the exact car I wanted. In fact, I’ve often waited months until just the right car showed up in dealer inventory anyway. I wouldn’t want to pay thousands in ADMs though.

ab348

If a vehicle is auto-braking to regenerate power for the batteries, I think it would be quite unsafe if the brake lights did NOT come on. Lawsuit territory.

au1994

qbrozen said:

@Michaell said:

And replace it with what? The custom van?

Yes.

Also got offers on the Benz. $11.3k is the top and from Vroom and ALGo. I think it could pull $15k at C&B or BaT after the mechanic is done with it, but is it worth the hassle for a few grand?

I’d take the $15k on the van and run. On the Benz its a tougher call. If you do the repairs and get it on either of the auction sites, yes $15k is more than reasonable. If not, well…I still remember BaT rejecting @brelds beautiful Polestar wagon a few years ago. Any interest in going private party on the Benz or better yet, get it fixed and join one of the MB forums and put it on there.

Of course you still have to buy in this mess of a market.

Strictly for scientific purposes, I ran the X1 and Vroom was the winner at $25,xxx. Carvana and CarMax were both $23,xxx. For all the good it does me…

sda

I haven’t experienced an EV or auto braking. I agree brake lights should illuminate when ‘really’ braking but not annoy like someone who constantly touches the brake pedal, kind of riding the brakes like a nervous Nellie. I suspect most drivers would find a way to get around that driver, yet…

oldfarmer50

ab348 said:

If a vehicle is auto-braking to regenerate power for the batteries, I think it would be quite unsafe if the brake lights did NOT come on. Lawsuit territory.

How about all the people driving around with their headlights on auto with no taillights?

kyfdx

oldfarmer50 said:

ab348 said:

If a vehicle is auto-braking to regenerate power for the batteries, I think it would be quite unsafe if the brake lights did NOT come on. Lawsuit territory.

How about all the people driving around with their headlights on Auto with no taillights?

If the taillights aren't on, the headlights aren't on auto, those are just the DRLs, you are seeing, upfront.

If your headlights are actually on Auto, the taillights come on, every time the headlights do.

qbrozen

I don't think the current market situation affects the price of the van she wants. Kind of is what it is. Only problem is that I don't know if current used values are indicative of the norm or if they are inflated. It isn't something I'm able to look up on Manheim, unfortunately, and none of the books value them, either. So my only recourse seems to be looking at used values. And they are RARE. There is a dealer in Ohio that shows some for $5k off, but they are RWD, so maybe that's why they are discounted. If we are serious, I'll message them and see if they offer a discount on AWD.

Would I like to keep the Benz? Sure. But I have the Jeep now and, given the choice between the two, I gotta go with new and reliable. So, if this plan goes through, we'd be doing a 2-for-1 deal and shaving the herd down to 5 vehicles. Oh, the humanity!

stickguy

Replacing what you sell really is the problem now. But great time to unload excess, unneeded inventory!

benjaminh

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/mercedes-benz-customers-waiting-more-than-year-cars-due-chip-shortage-ceo-faz-2021-09-24/

"BERLIN, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Mercedes-Benz customers are facing waiting times of more than a year for their orders because of interruptions to production caused by chip shortages, Daimler (DAIGn.DE) Chief Executive Ola Kallenius told a German newspaper in an interview on Friday.

"Demand is huge at Mercedes-Benz and at the same time there are unfortunately severe limitations," he told Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. "For some models the waiting times are longer than we would like, in some cases over a year."

Kaellenius repeated a previous forecast that the troubles with chip supply plaguing automakers worldwide would continue into 2023, as structural problems as well as pandemic-induced lockdowns in key supplier countries persist."

benjaminh

"This late-model used-car shortage is going to be here for years — years — and there's nothing you can do about it," Pollak said. ... Once those pipelines are filled, it will still take another six to 18 months for those cars to become used vehicles, Pollak noted....

“Used supply is going to be a huge issue here for the next three years as we kind of work through this,” Paris said.

J.D. Power forecasts that used-vehicle supply will go down in 2022 and in 2023, when it will bottom out, before normalizing or at least turning back up in 2024.

https://todayuknews.com/automobile/used-car-pandemic-hangover-could-last-for-years/

stickguy

Good reason to buy my new one. Not likely to depreciate that much. Though would be nice if they inflated the residual though on leases to reflect that!

Having 2 newer cars now will be nice. A comfort level. Just in case something happens to one, and if not, no need to look for years. And if you want to get rid of one should hold value.

stickguy

And some companies better be fast tracking new chip fans. Heck, seems like something the government should do as a national security/interest deal. Pay Intel to bring shuttered facilities back on line. Can’t to the ultra high end chips, but cars aren’t using them anyway.

breld

A co-worker of mine who has a Tesla Model 3 came into my office yesterday to show me his new "body work." Last week he was t-boned and the damage is severe (though he seems to be mostly okay other than some aches).

So a couple of issues that I found intriguing...just looking at it, it should be totaled. You wouldn't want that car back after any repair. But does the current inflated values of vehicles in general, much less the high retained value of Teslas, factor into that (i.e., it's that much more difficult to reach the "totaled" threshold)?

And if it is totaled, I suppose the insurance company has to take into account current values, regardless of how ridiculous they may be?

And finally, ordering a Model 3 today gets you one maybe by the end of the year. I wonder if the insurance company will pay for a rental car for that long of a period?

stickguy

I wouldn’t want to find out on my own! That was one reason my wife said to get another car now, even if we probably could manage with 1 longer. If something happened to the only car, we would have no back up plan, and few quick options to replace it.

corvette

I feel set for your coworker, getting parts will probably be a nightmare if they try to repair it, and my experience as a enthusiast is that things are never really “right” after major body repairs like that.

au1994

Is the Transit something you would consider ordering?

qbrozen

au1994 said:

Is the Transit something you would consider ordering?

yes. For all I know, that's the only way.

sda

stickguy said:

Good reason to buy my new one. Not likely to depreciate that much. Though would be nice if they inflated the residual though on leases to reflect that!

Having 2 newer cars now will be nice. A comfort level. Just in case something happens to one, and if not, no need to look for years. And if you want to get rid of one should hold value.

Luckily you have the Maverick ordered. I really look forward to you taking delivery and sharing your impressions. One of the Fords that has my interest.

stickguy

A dealer I follow in Kansas posted they had their first ordered unit arrive today. And another guy bought one from stock in AZ yesterday. So they are hitting the road.

Still seems silly they are enforcing the 10/5 review embargo when units are already delivered. Can’t stop buyers from posting reviews online! I think…

oldfarmer50

breld said:

A co-worker of mine who has a Tesla Model 3 came into my office yesterday to show me his new "body work." Last week he was t-boned and the damage is severe (though he seems to be mostly okay other than some aches).

So a couple of issues that I found intriguing...just looking at it, it should be totaled. You wouldn't want that car back after any repair. But does the current inflated values of vehicles in general, much less the high retained value of Teslas, factor into that (i.e., it's that much more difficult to reach the "totaled" threshold)?

And if it is totaled, I suppose the insurance company has to take into account current values, regardless of how ridiculous they may be?

And finally, ordering a Model 3 today gets you one maybe by the end of the year. I wonder if the insurance company will pay for a rental car for that long of a period?

Our rental company has a 30 day limit on rentals so you might have a hard time getting around that. (Maybe switch cars every 30 days?)

mjfloyd1

@breld said:
A co-worker of mine who has a Tesla Model 3 came into my office yesterday to show me his new "body work." Last week he was t-boned and the damage is severe (though he seems to be mostly okay other than some aches).

So a couple of issues that I found intriguing...just looking at it, it should be totaled. You wouldn't want that car back after any repair. But does the current inflated values of vehicles in general, much less the high retained value of Teslas, factor into that (i.e., it's that much more difficult to reach the "totaled" threshold)?

And if it is totaled, I suppose the insurance company has to take into account current values, regardless of how ridiculous they may be?

And finally, ordering a Model 3 today gets you one maybe by the end of the year. I wonder if the insurance company will pay for a rental car for that long of a period?

I’d hope that the body repairs plus probable battery replacement would total it. If they repair it, make sure they file a diminished value claim

The insurance company has to pay comparable price to the date of the accident. I’d have him get Vroom, carvana etc comparable prices and keep copies of the cars and valuations. Have him/ her stick to their guns on the current value because the insurance company won’t hesitate to screw him/ her over. Ask me how I know

Most insurance has 30 day rental coverage but if you can’t get a new one or they try and repair it and getting parts takes forever, what can they say?

au1994

mjfloyd1 said:

@breld said:

A co-worker of mine who has a Tesla Model 3 came into my office yesterday to show me his new "body work." Last week he was t-boned and the damage is severe (though he seems to be mostly okay other than some aches).

So a couple of issues that I found intriguing...just looking at it, it should be totaled. You wouldn't want that car back after any repair. But does the current inflated values of vehicles in general, much less the high retained value of Teslas, factor into that (i.e., it's that much more difficult to reach the "totaled" threshold)?

And if it is totaled, I suppose the insurance company has to take into account current values, regardless of how ridiculous they may be?

And finally, ordering a Model 3 today gets you one maybe by the end of the year. I wonder if the insurance company will pay for a rental car for that long of a period?

I’d hope that the body repairs plus probable battery replacement would total it. If they repair it, make sure they file a diminished value claim

The insurance company has to pay comparable price to the date of the accident. I’d have him get Vroom, carvana etc comparable prices and keep copies of the cars and valuations. Have him/ her stick to their guns on the current value because the insurance company won’t hesitate to screw him/ her over. Ask me how I know

Most insurance has 30 day rental coverage but if you can’t get a new one or they try and repair it and getting parts takes forever, what can they say?

If/when it exceeds 30 days I think you just ‘turn the car in’ and rent it all over again. I had to do this with a hotel room. ‘check out’ on day 30 and immediately check back in. Something about the billing that I didn’t pay attention to. I was 25 and it was my companies money, what did I care

jmonroe1

@au1994 said:
If/when it exceeds 30 days I think you just ‘turn the car in’ and rent it all over again. I had to do this with a hotel room. ‘check out’ on day 30 and immediately check back in. Something about the billing that I didn’t pay attention to. I was 25 and it was my companies money, what did I care

HELLO… HELLO… hello.

jmonroe

tifighter

I've been looking at cars on the Carmax website. Have any of you bought from them? The shipping costs range quite a bit, but getting a car shipped up from California to Seattle for $600 doesn't seem that bad. You can return it for any reason within 30 days after delivery, meaning if you took something for a PPI and it was no bueno, you should just be out the shipping cost. Not ideal, but for a car you can't just find anywhere, it seems like a viable option.

qbrozen

uh-oh. Wifey may not be able to get the Transit. The realtor messaged today while she was doing final walkthrough for us. I asked her if she'd be kind enough to measure the height of the garage. She said she did the best she could due to being short, but believes it to be 90". The sport roof version of the van is 94" per the brochure. We're going to see the van on Sat and I'll be in MB on Sunday, so I'll confirm measurements on both. If it is close enough, maybe adding air suspension could fix the issue.

explorerx4

We can start a pool on how long before someone forgets to lower the suspension entering the garage.
Hopefully it's taller than 90 inches.

Sandman6472

New brake fluid installed plus the air filter and cabin air filter. Told me my brake pads are at 50% all around so we're o k there it seems. With just about 69K on the clock, not surprised we're still at 50% but was willing to change out the pads if things weren't that good to be honest. This guy is super honest which I appreciate and told me the rest from what he could visually see is just fine. I don't drive the car very hard to be honest so things look to be fine going forward. Could use some new wiper blades all around but I'll go to the Audi/VW specialty shop around the corner who got them for me last time but will get all three this time around.
As much as I'd like to get something new, the timing just ain't right and since they have no Corolla Cross demos to try out, will just have to wait. Might take a look the last week of the year to see if they do have any in stock and if not, just keeping the Golf works for me.

stickguy

The guy that bought a Maverick a few days ago keeps posting update videos. He took it out (with only 200 miles on it) to get performance numbers. Real world conditions, on an empty highyway using a draggy to clock.

Consistent between 6.5-6.9 (sport to eco drive modes) and 1/4 in about 14.9 @ 91. This was a 2.0t AWD, driven pretty normally. So, certainly quick enough to stay out of its own way! And should not be bogged down if using the payload. Even seemed to be getting good MPG still. FWD version should be even better for that.

explorerx4

Our 2013 Escape 2.0 AWD, now driven by one of the kids, never felt overmatched even when loaded down with a rooftop cargo box and bike rack with bikes out back.

stickguy

Same engine can haul around an edge or explorer, so can’t be too weak!

jmonroe1

@qbrozen said:
uh-oh. Wifey may not be able to get the Transit. The realtor messaged today while she was doing final walkthrough for us. I asked her if she'd be kind enough to measure the height of the garage. She said she did the best she could due to being short, but believes it to be 90". The sport roof version of the van is 94" per the brochure. We're going to see the van on Sat and I'll be in MB on Sunday, so I'll confirm measurements on both. If it is close enough, maybe adding air suspension could fix the issue.

Or, you could let some air out of the tires when you’re about to pull into the garage and when you pull out, just pump em up again. Fresh air never hurt anything.

jmonroe

mjfloyd1

@qbrozen - how much did you pay for the AMG?? I can’t remember honestly

stickguy

Stopped at local Ford dealer today to see if they had their first Maverick drop onto the lot yet. Nope. Just got a vague “supposedly mid October” from them. But, they took my number to add to list of interested people to call. Will be a reserved unit, so no test drive, but can get a visual and test sit, which is what I really want (I know what an Escape drives like).

au1994

tifighter said:

I've been looking at cars on the Carmax website. Have any of you bought from them? The shipping costs range quite a bit, but getting a car shipped up from California to Seattle for $600 doesn't seem that bad. You can return it for any reason within 30 days after delivery, meaning if you took something for a PPI and it was no bueno, you should just be out the shipping cost. Not ideal, but for a car you can't just find anywhere, it seems like a viable option.

I bought my ZHP from them. I had it shipped from MD to GA for a very nominal amount. At that time (2013) I think shipping was free within 250 miles. Looks like that has all but gone away.

Easy process. Took a few days to get here, I showed up, looked at it, drove it, wrote a check which they validated funds on. Did some paperwork and walked out after maybe an hour and a half.

au1994

jmonroe1 said:

@qbrozen said:

uh-oh. Wifey may not be able to get the Transit. The realtor messaged today while she was doing final walkthrough for us. I asked her if she'd be kind enough to measure the height of the garage. She said she did the best she could due to being short, but believes it to be 90". The sport roof version of the van is 94" per the brochure. We're going to see the van on Sat and I'll be in MB on Sunday, so I'll confirm measurements on both. If it is close enough, maybe adding air suspension could fix the issue.

Or, you could let some air out of the tires when you’re about to pull into the garage and when you pull out, just pump em up again. Fresh air never hurt anything.

jmonroe

Heard the one about the guy that spent a weekend in his garage installing a lift kit on his Jeep?

Yep…the lifted height no longer allowed him to pull out of the garage. He was able to air down and get it out.

And no that guy wasn’t me.

explorerx4

A friend of mine bought a car from them and tried to buy another one, but they ended up shipping it to another location and refused to send it to the original destination.
They did refund his shipping charge.

jmonroe1

@au1994 said:
Heard the one about the guy that spent a weekend in his garage installing a lift kit on his Jeep?

Yep…the lifted height no longer allowed him to pull out of the garage. He was able to air down and get it out.

And no that guy wasn’t me.

I don’t know if you’d call that Yankee ingenuity or being a Redneck. Probably depends on where you come from.

jmonroe

au1994

jmonroe1 said:

@au1994 said:

Heard the one about the guy that spent a weekend in his garage installing a lift kit on his Jeep?

Yep…the lifted height no longer allowed him to pull out of the garage. He was able to air down and get it out.

And no that guy wasn’t me.

I don’t know if you’d call that Yankee ingenuity or being a Redneck. Probably depends on where you come from.

jmonroe

Redneck for me! I’m going to guess there was a significant amount of Budweiser involved in that incident.

stickguy

Here’s one for you low mile, luxury land yacht fans.

https://www.euroasianauto.com/details/used-1983-lincoln-mark-vi/79550462

breld

qbrozen said:

uh-oh. Wifey may not be able to get the Transit. The realtor messaged today while she was doing final walkthrough for us. I asked her if she'd be kind enough to measure the height of the garage. She said she did the best she could due to being short, but believes it to be 90". The sport roof version of the van is 94" per the brochure. We're going to see the van on Sat and I'll be in MB on Sunday, so I'll confirm measurements on both. If it is close enough, maybe adding air suspension could fix the issue.

Did I miss something about you moving to a new house?

qbrozen

mjfloyd1 said:

@qbrozen - how much did you pay for the AMG?? I can’t remember honestly

$13k

jmonroe1

@au1994 said:
Redneck for me! I’m going to guess there was a significant amount of Budweiser involved in that incident.

Or it could have been some locally made stuff.

When I lived in SC one of the roads that I took to work was named Whiskey Road. I’m going to guess that road didn’t get it’s name because they were running lemonade up and down it.

jmonroe

qbrozen

breld said:

Did I miss something about you moving to a new house?

vacation condo in myrtle beach. i probably kept those comments on the other thread.

jmonroe1

@qbrozen said:
vacation condo in myrtle beach. i probably kept those comments on the other thread.

Probably because you didn’t want to deal with freeloaders from more than one Edmunds forum.

jmonroe

Michaell

jmonroe1 said:

@qbrozen said:

vacation condo in myrtle beach. i probably kept those comments on the other thread.

Probably because you didn’t want to deal with freeloaders from more than one Edmunds forum.

jmonroe

There's only one ... but I hear he has a doppleganger.

fintail

Wow, that color combo. I suspect that year was close to the weakest powertrain, but it's quite pretty in that spec.

stickguy said:

Here’s one for you low mile, luxury land yacht fans.

https://www.euroasianauto.com/details/used-1983-lincoln-mark-vi/79550462