what should i offer on a m340i loaner vehicle with 4k miles

hello everyone i am pretty new to buying new vehicles and i would greatly appreciate this forums assistance i am in the market for a 330i and i found a 2020 m340i with 4100 miles priced at 53,000 at a local bmw dealership after incentives are applied what are the chances i can successfully get 15-18% off the price of the vehicle? according to the dealership the msrp new was 58,635.00 i appreciate any suggestions and help thank you
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