Hybrid vs Diesel

gagrice · December 2004

I think they are cool looking. Perfect for running to the store and taking the kids to school, if you only have 3. It would be on my list of runabout cars for sure.

http://www.vwvortex.com/artman/publish/article_319.shtml

larsb · December 2004

Automobile magazine seems to agree with my assessment that diesels will never be as clean as Hybrids:

"Let's face it. The Jetta diesel will never be as clean as a hybrid, because it's a diesel and because the hybrid spends a good part of its urban-running time in zero-emissions mode, driven by a mighty-mite electric motor fed by a hefty battery pack. That accounts for its stellar 60 mpg EPA city mileage figure, which many purchasers have mistaken for the mileage they might actually get around town, which, in our case, was far lower. Compared with the Prius, the Jetta is somewhat less stingy with a gallon of fuel and emits roughly twenty times more nitrous oxide, almost three times more hydrocarbons, and twice as much carbon monoxide, even though it's wildly clean by historic diesel standards. It helps to remember that the Prius, optimized to remain electric and hence emissions-free for a good portion of the EPA city-driving cycle, tests as one of the cleanest fossil-fueled cars in history. (Priuses certified for California and four Northeast states are cleaner yet.) The jury is still out on whether the diesel will survive in the U.S. market, though we're betting that the political muscle of diesel makers and other adherents will extend its life into a distant future. The question may be what form diesels take. There is nothing to suggest that they wouldn't offer similar benefits were they to be hybridized; indeed, the stated goal of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles, the federally underwritten program to build an 80-mpg family car that cost billions and turned up nothing, was to facilitate production of just such a vehicle. The reason? Diesels use less of a more energy-dense fuel and therefore tend to be naturally low in carbon dioxide emissions-the bugaboo of the global warming debate-which is good. Emissions, especially oxides of nitrogen and particulate matter, remain a major concern, however, even if you can't see diesel soot with the naked eye as well as you used to."

http://www.automobilemag.com/reviews/0409_prius_jetta_comparo/

gagrice · December 2004

The article seemed fair and balanced. If you want a great in town commuter, go hybrid. If you want good highway handling and adverse conditions driving go with the VW TDI. If anyone wants an 80 mpg family car the LUPO TDI is available to parts of the world. Anytime you get the federal government involved in R&D there will be waste and graft.

Smoke, odor, and related diesel foulness are things of the past. Cruising at 90 mph, if one goes in for such things, is an option for the present. The Americanized Jetta's handling is not the last word in crisp, but the car is planted, unlike the Prius, which gets blown around in the wind. When full panic braking is called for, the Jetta pulls up in 172 feet from 70 mph, 20 feet less than the Prius, which feels jerky and slightly odd when binders are applied, and narrow-tread tires have their work cut out for them stopping 2960-plus pounds of payload.

larsb · December 2004

Amazing that a person can live in today's world and still think Hybrids "plug in" or that a Hybrid car is a "robot." But that's what Automobile mag got from one yokel:

"Only one of our test cars looked as if it were sent last week from outer space (actually, it comes from Toyota City, near Nagoya in Japan), and only one can take epochal, brand-making advantage of the general public's dim-to-nonexistent understanding of hybrid technology. "Where do you plug it in?" is a question you'll learn to hate as a Prius driver. They don't understand. But we feel quite certain that the Prius defines the automotive new wave for Americans, nevertheless. "Is it a robot?" someone asked. "That's the robot, right?'
"Why, yes, it is," we told them. "Stand back."

Amazing.

gagrice · December 2004

"That's the robot, right?'
"Why, yes, it is," we told them. "Stand back."
Amazing.

Maybe it was not such an uneducated question.

http://uk.download.yahoo.com/ne/fu/oa/eurcncs185030.mpg

larsb · December 2004

quote gagrice-"A diesel car that gets 45 mpg is not a problem."-end quote

I think maybe the definition of "a problem" is indeed a part of the problem. (follow that?)

Diesel fuel exhaust itself has been shown in decades of scientific testing to be harmful to humans and the environment in ways measured FAR WORSE than gasoline exhaust.

Until "clean diesel" is prevalent and is shown to be indeed "clean" then diesels will have problems in the USA.

Not based on any "bias against diesel" or anything else, just based on established scientific facts.

In general, the following statement is true:

Hybrids are the cleanest gasoline cars right now, and "clean diesels" are far, FAR behind. Dirty diesels are not even on the MAP.

xcel · December 2004

Hi Larsb:

Hybrids are the cleanest gasoline cars right now

___Actually, a far greater number of non-hybrid Honda Accords, Ford Focus, Nissan Sentras and Altimas, Toyota Camrys, BMW 325s the list goes on and on have been and are cleaner then our Hybrids for a far longer period of time. Our 03 MDX is actually cleaner then most HCHs and is cleaner then my Insight in terms of regulated emissions.

http://www.driveclean.ca.gov/en/gv/vsearch/cleansearch_result.asp

and "clean diesels" are far, FAR behind. Dirty diesels are not even on the MAP.

___Actually, clean diesels out of Europe are at ULEV or better levels in terms of PM and NOx today. They are lower then most hybrids in terms of CO and HCs.

___When will the Green Diesels arrive here? Even after LSD and ULSD is available to everyone, the EPA and CARB might decide for you and I that they will never be available?

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

gagrice · December 2004

Hybrids are the cleanest gasoline cars right now, and "clean diesels" are far, FAR behind. Dirty diesels are not even on the MAP.

I will have to put your statement in the category of opinion. First according to the EPA the cleanest ICE car they have tested is the Civic running on CNG. Next you ignore the fact that ULSD is available in most of CA today. Are we going to have to wait until all the high sulfur diesel is used in trucks, trains and ships before they will allow diesel cars. If CARB was consistent across the board I would not have a complaint. By our standards, my neighbor can buy an F350 diesel truck and burn whatever diesel he can find. I cannot buy the much cleaner burning VW TDI even if I were to burn only ULSD or biodiesel, which is also available at the pump in San Diego.

To add to xcel's point, he gets 37 mpg with a Ford Ranger. I have talked to people that drove a Diesel Ranger crewcab from the tip of So America to Prudhoe Bay Alaska. They averaged for the trip 45 mpg. That is why I can say it is well within reason to expect that kind of mileage from our trucks and cars. The reasons that those vehicles are not here is many. One is the EPA has done little to force the mileage higher since 1975 when Nixon mandated the 27.5 mpg fleet average. The oil industry is not interested in us getting better mileage for obvious reasons. And the state governments are having problems with high mileage as it cuts into their fuel tax revenues. You can expect your hybrid to get some kind of extra tax in the next few years. It may be like the Oregon and CA mileage tax. Or some other scheme like the $75 tax that Nebraska levies on hybrids.

Clean burning diesels are better in some areas (GHG) than gas and worse in others. None of the new vehicles are as bad as a car built in 1995, or a diesel truck built today.

I know it is going to take some time to convince you that hybrids are a niche market. If you watch the Prius buyers thread. Almost every day someone posts where they have walked in or called and the dealer had a Prius for MSRP ready to sell. One poster says the dealer near him in WA has two on the lot right now. They have just about saturated the potential buyers. Some dealers use that 6 month waiting list to sell you something else. It happened to me in Hawaii.

rfruth · December 2004

The fact that xcel gets 37 mpg with a Ranger is very good, wonder how many others can do that, probably the same number that have a CNG Civic or a diesel Ranger in the US. How many can buy a Prius or Honda hybrid ?

larsb · December 2004

quote xcel:"___Actually, a far greater number of non-hybrid Honda Accords, Ford Focus, Nissan Sentras and Altimas, Toyota Camrys, BMW 325s the list goes on and on have been and are cleaner then our Hybrids for a far longer period of time. Our 03 MDX is actually cleaner then most HCHs and is cleaner then my Insight in terms of regulated emissions."-end quote

That may be true for PZEVs, which are mostly in CA. But not on the 2005 EPA list of Clean Green cars - all the top spots belong to Hybrids. Here is the EPA list of greenest, cleanest cars:

http://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/all-rank-05.htm

And here's where the diesels start showing up:

http://www.epa.gov/autoemissions/cars-rank2-04.htm

quote gagrice-"I know it is going to take some time to convince you that hybrids are a niche market."-end quote

That's about as likely to EVER happen as is me convincing you that diesels are not the long term answer !!

larsb · December 2004

Here is a good tool for measuring current vehicles emission levels:

http://www.environmentaldefense.org/tool_launch.cfm?tool=tailpipe

gagrice · December 2004

I could not find any of the VW TDI models on that calulator. Why does the HCH emit more Hydro Carbons than the standard Civic?

larsb · December 2004

They are both at 6.1 lb at 12,500 miles per year

2004 HONDA CIVIC HYBRID

(47.7 mpg, ULEV I)

12,500 miles/year 262 gal $506 5088 lb 224.4 lb 17.5 lb 6.1 lb

2004 HONDA CIVIC

(33.7 mpg, ULEV I)

12,500 miles/year 371 gal $716 7197 lb 224.4 lb 17.5 lb 6.1 lb

xcel · December 2004

Hi Larsb:

That may be true for PZEVs, which are mostly in CA. But not on the 2005 EPA list of Clean Green cars - all the top spots belong to Hybrids. Here is the EPA list of greenest, cleanest cars:

___There are PZEVs being purchased all over the country, not just in California. The Focus in particular was a PZEV without the extended warranty or cost in every state in the union for the 03/04 MY. The PZEV based Camry/Accord/325i can all be found in at least 5 states and there are even Honda dealerships with Accord PZEVs on the ground here in Illinois.

___The EPAs green vehicle guide does not include the excess CO2 nor std. SMOG pollutants emitted when building a Hybrid from scratch over and above the non-hybrid in any way shape or form.

___As for diesels, you are not considering the technology that Ford and DCC have created to bring the Diesel to ULEV or better levels. We have a small problem in this country in that not everyone can afford or even wants a hybrid. With that, offer all a similar automobile but one that is far less costly and one that will reduce our dependence on a foreign oil supply. CARB and the EPA will be preventing this due to a mindless restriction on owner action in 30 to 50,000 miles vs. 120,000 miles.

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

larsb · December 2004

From the tally calculator tool when you click on "methodology" link.

"Diesel vehicles were omitted from the Tally because they misrepresent the fuel economy values for conventional gasoline vehicles. Although diesel vehicles achieve higher fuel economy, they typically are a poorer environmental choice because they pose potential health risks due to particulate matter emissions. See ACEEE's Green Book to compare like vehicles with different engine types"

you can but the green book for $8.95 and see the diesel ratings at this site:

http://www.greenercars.com/indextext.html

larsb · December 2004

"We are the world's first climate-neutral motoring organisation" and they had their recent top ten list: (hybrids on top, diesels in the list)

Top Ten Best

Honda Civic 1.4 IMA Executive (hybrid)

Toyota Prius 1.5 Hybrid

Vauxhall Corsa 1.3 CDTi 16v Life

Daihatsu YRV 1.3L

Daihatsu Charade 1.0 L

Smart City Coupe Hatchback

Ford Focus C-Max 1.6 TDCi

Volkswagen Touran 1.9 TDI

Peugeot 407 Saloon 1.6 HDI

Honda Accord 2.2 i-CTDi Sport

http://www.eta.co.uk/news/car-buyers-guide.asp

Remember: These guys are in Europe where all the cities smell like burned fuel due to the the diesel onslaught......

gagrice · December 2004

That is a good example. So at least half of the top ten vehicles are diesel including the Accord diesel. Did you notice the Accord gas cars are not on the list. Pretty conclusive evidence that a diesel Accord is cleaner than a gasoline Accord. Maybe even the V6 hybrid Accord. Even the Civic or Corolla gas cars are dirtier than an Accord diesel. Hmmmmm makes you wonder..

larsb · December 2004

Pretty conclusive evidence that a diesel Accord is cleaner than a gasoline Accord.

That's not Conclusive at all - it's one organization's ratings for one model year.

And yes, the diesels are more respected and used in Europe.

The problem remains that if you put those EXACT diesel cars on US soil, they will STILL rate lower in the EPA ratings system than the gasoline version. If that is an untrue statement, then the "modern clean" diesel cars now on US soil would be in the top ten at the EPA site. Correct? Correct.

We'll see in a couple of years when "clean diesels" make it to CA where those guys land on the EPA ratings list.

gagrice · December 2004

We'll see in a couple of years when "clean diesels" make it to CA where those guys land on the EPA ratings list.

What makes one better than the other. The EPA is not as concerned with GHG the Europeans. Remember we would not sign the Kioto agreement. Maybe the ice all melting and us being under water is a bigger issue than a few more grams of PM or NoX.

larsb · December 2004

Honda Accord Petrol:

Emissions CO (g/km) 0.295

Emissions HC + NOx (g/km) ZERO

Emissions Particulates ZERO

CO2 (g/km) 196

Honda Accord Tourer 2.2 i-CTDi

Emissions CO (g/km) 0.196

Emissions HC + NOx (g/km) 0.194

Emissions Particulates 0.02

CO2 (g/km) 153

So, yes, in CO and CO2 the diesel is cleaner. But the problem which diesel cannot EVER overcome: HC+NOx and PM, which "petrol" fuels do not emit.....

gagrice · December 2004

So, yes, in CO and CO2 the diesel is cleaner. But the problem which diesel cannot EVER overcome: HC+NOx and PM, which "petrol" fuels do not emit.....

That is not true. DCC, VW, BMW & Honda all have Particulate filters that work and the NoX can be eliminated with a Urea filter which I have no idea how it works. The issue according to CARB is the Urea filter has to be replaced sooner than 150k miles by the consumer and they don't trust us to do that. The Urea filter from what I understand is about a $100 added to the price of the car. One poster here is faced with a Prius catalytic convertor failure, that the dealer wants to charge him $2100 to replace. $100 seems cheap to me.

Your ZEROs on the above cars only applies to PZEV cars that are not running on the high sulfur gas in most of the USA.

larsb · December 2004

The Kyoto issue is beyond the scope of this discussion, but in my mind, "smog" and health problems (lung cancer) are the main problem with diesels. Not that gasoline exhaust in harmless, because it is not, but diesel is just WORSE.

I was in SoCal in 1981-1984 and again last year, and I can tell you the smog problem is worse now than then, despite all the clean air initiatives that have passed there. You had blue vistas of clean air near the coastline in 1984, and now you do not. And that was with all that "leaded" gasoline exhaust in the air.

Virtually every single scientific study in the USA that has been done on diesel exhaust in the

past 50 yrs has declared it unsafe and damaging.

It's hard to "undo" all that evidence.

As far as Hybrid versus diesel, remember that every time a Hybrid is running on all electric or is at a red light using AutoStop, it's emissions are ZERO. That is a small percentage of the time, but it's better than nothing.

Zero Emissions: something that a diesel can perform only with it's engine OFF.

larsb · December 2004

quote gagrice:"That is not true. DCC, VW, BMW & Honda all have Particulate filters that work and the NoX can be eliminated."-end quote

If those filters exist, then why are they not in use right now on the Hondas on the road in the UK?

gagrice · December 2004

I was in SoCal in 1981-1984 and again last year, and I can tell you the smog problem is worse now than then, despite all the clean air initiatives that have passed there.

The main cause of that brown crap that floats inland and lays against the San Bernardino mountains is caused by ships. Diesel cars are nearly nonexistent in CA so it cannot be blamed on them. Each ship of which there are thousands is burning bunker oil. Practically right out of the ground. 3000-5000 ppm sulfur. Each ship pollutes more than 12,000 cars. CARB has done little to curb that.

xcel · December 2004

Hi Larsb:

If those filters exist, then why are they not in use right now on the Hondas on the road in the UK?

___Because they are not required to meet Euro IV spec emissions levels. They more then likely will be required to meet Euro V specs which is just a little over 3 years away on the European continent.

___A Diesels urea injection solution for NOx control is an add-on that works with an SCR-CAT. It doesnt replace it so there is still the huge expense if heaven forbid you had to replace the CAT itself. If the EPA/CARB allows consumer intervention/action, this is the least expensive way to ULEV/SULEV emissions from a 4-cylinder diesel that I have been writing about.

___In terms of PM, the latest European Ford C-MAX uses a DPF as does some of the other cars listed. I do not know to what levels they reduce PM nor how long they last (EPA/CARB issues again) but they do drop the PM down to at least Euro IV specs. The Accord iCDTi does not actually meet Euro IV from a post by a Japanese design manager I picked up on a few months ago although the advertising shows that it does. Its NOx was a bit over the Euro IV spec limits IIRC.

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

larsb · December 2004

quote Gagrice-"The main cause of that brown crap that floats inland and lays against the San Bernardino mountains is caused by ships."

So we know for sure there are more ships now than in 1984?

There are CERTAINLY WAY more diesel trucks and probably more gasoline cars than in 1984.

So the causes are indeed wide and varied, but diesel definitely plays a part because of the PM it adds into the brown cloud.

robertsmx · December 2004

Because they are not required to meet Euro IV spec emissions levels.

Then, we should talk about something only after they are offered/required. Otherwise, how do we conclude?

xcel · December 2004

Hi Robertsmx:

___Look up the Ford Focus C-MAX to see what it does come with.

___The following are just general articles in regards to the EPA and Urea injection SCR-CATs as they are related to NOx emissions.

http://www.totally-mercedes.com/mercedes-articles/mercedes/merced- es-article-844.html

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0CYH/is_20_7/ai_110471- 046

___I especially love this one from the EPA:

What will happen to an engine if the truck runs out of urea during a cross-country run?

___Jeeesh. Pop a CEL when the tank is at ¼ and then it gets filled. What happens when a std. ICE CAT is found to be below efficiency per an O2 sensor? It pops a CEL and it gets replaced when you take it in If you take it in. This is the kind of crap coming from the EPA I am talking about.

___There are tens to hundreds of research pdfs available and a google search on the subject will lead you where you will find the answers.

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

gagrice · December 2004

This is the kind of crap coming from the EPA I am talking about.

It is obvious that the people that are pushing the hybrid vehicles have the ear of the EPA & CARB. If that is not so why did they limit the tax incentive to just hybrids. Many cars on the market are more environmentally friendly than some of the hybrids. Especially the Escape and Accord hybrids. The hybrid faction would not like to see the diesel cars make it into our market. Clean diesel would spell the death knoll for the hybrids. Hopefully the people in our government will come to their senses about this smoke screen, before we all get sold this hybrid, throwaway car scam. Hybrids have a place as commuter cars. I don't think they will satisfy many past that. Especially at the big premium.

If the hybrids are the answer we should be able to tell in the European market. If the HCH or HAH outsell the Civic & Accord Diesels then maybe they have something actually worth looking into. If not it is the same old "Sell it to the USA they will buy anything you send them". We are a nation of suckers no doubt.

robertsmx · December 2004

If the hybrids are the answer we should be able to tell in the European market. If the HCH or HAH outsell the Civic & Accord Diesels then maybe they have something actually worth looking into.

You're completely ignoring the most important part of the equation, the bottomline that is the cost of fuel. Diesel is a lot cheaper in Europe (UK may be an exception) and Asia when compared to gasoline. Sometimes, as much as 40% less expensive. Cleaner emissions take backseat there, and more so since cars are generally not necessities. So, unless a gasoline powered cars (hybrid or not) can make up for the massive difference, it is unlikely that they will be more popular.

The story is different in North America. I just noticed gasoline prices at a pump in Dallas area:

87 grade: $1.67

91 grade: $1.75

93 grade: $1.85

Diesel: $1.90

xcel · December 2004

Hi Robertsmx:

___In the summer, Diesel here in the sates is usually much lower then that of Regular unleaded. In the winter due to heating oil demand, it reverses. The Nymex futures for both low sulfur Diesel #2 and low sulfur Unleaded Regular pricing looks like this today:

Low Sulfur Regular Unleaded ** Low Sulfur Diesel #2

Jan 05: $1.1901 ** $1.4395

Feb 05: $1.2222 ** $1.4396

Mar 05: $1.2440 ** $1.3826

Apr 05: $1.3195 ** $1.2956

May 05: $1.322 ** $1.2416

Jun 05: $1.3165 ** $1.2086

Jul 05: $1.3010 ** $1.2001

Aug 05: $1.2770 ** $1.1906

___With that, directly from the Nymex:

Diesel fuel and No. 2 heating oil are nearly identical products, and the NYMEX Division heating oil futures contract is typically used to hedge diesel. Each product, however, serves different end-use markets, and each moves with a unique set of supply and demand dynamics. Despite the close correlation of diesel and heating oil pricing, basis risk is always present.

___Do you have a link for Diesel to Gasoline price comparison? I thought in England, LSD was higher but in the rest of Europe it was lower?

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

robertsmx · December 2004

I quoted the price I saw in pumps today, and the trend has been the same, in at least two cities that I spend considerable time in (I live in Dallas, and visit Seattle often).

Regardless, diesel offers no advantage to gasoline here in America in terms of price, unlike in Europe and Asia. Customers care for the bottomline when it comes to that.

xcel · December 2004

Hi Robertsmx:

___I will ask some European Hybrid owners what they see in their particular countries as far as Gasoline vs. Diesel pricing. Hopefully I will hear something back by the end of the week?

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

gagrice · December 2004

Regardless, diesel offers no advantage to gasoline here in America in terms of price, unlike in Europe and Asia. Customers care for the bottom line when it comes to that.

How can you say that when you know the bottom line is that diesel cars are much more economical. If you buy a gas Jetta it is rated 24/31 mpg. That exact same car with a TDI is rated 38/46 mpg. Unlike the hybrids the premium is only $1000.

If you figure a $1000 difference between the gas and diesel Jetta and you drive 15k miles per year it will take 3.2 years to pay for that diesel upgrade. When you have 150k miles on the Jetta it will have saved you $2157 additional. Not to mention the much higher resale of the diesel.

As a comparison it will take 29.9 years driving 15k miles per year to make up the difference in price between the HAH and the Accord EX V6, on gas savings alone. Not to mention the fact you gave up a moonroof and larger trunk.

If you have a hard time justifying a diesel how in the world would you be able to justify the rip-off premium on the hybrids?

Right today in San Diego the price of unleaded and diesel is 1 cent difference. It would be much cheaper except the state of CA taxes diesel much higher than gas.

robertsmx · December 2004

I was talking about price of gasoline versus price of diesel. But, since you're comparing gasoline versus TDI version, the premium on diesel compared to gasoline (2.0) is $3K for Jetta (base MSRP of $21K compared to $18K).

As a comparison it will take 29.9 years driving 15k miles per year to make up the difference in price between the HAH and the Accord EX V6, on gas savings alone

I hate to repeat this, but why do you continue insist that sole point of HAH is to save $$$? And to begin with, you continue to use high demand as a weakness of HAH.

larsb · December 2004

quote Gagrice:"If the hybrids are the answer we should be able to tell in the European market. If the HCH or HAH outsell the Civic & Accord Diesels then maybe they have something actually worth looking into."-end quote

If that's the test, Hybrids fail already Gary, and you know it. Diesel is EMBEDDED into the European mindset and diesel fuel is cheaper over there.

Hybrids might make small inroads over there, but it will be 20 or more years (after there are 50 Hybrids to choose from) before Hybrids could overtake diesels in that geographic area.

gagrice · December 2004

If that's the test, Hybrids fail already

My response was to the statement that "customers look at the bottom line" and I agree. When you look at the bottom line the Diesel wins over the hybrid. I understand that in the UK diesel is more expensive than gas. So if the hybrids make inroads we should be able to see that. I can tell you if I went to a car lot and had the option of an Accord diesel and HAH. It would not even be a second thought.

IF hybrids are on the minds of car buyers in the US it is not reflected here at Edmund's. I was looking at new prices on Toyota. Prius is not even one of the most researched Toyotas.

xcel · December 2004

Hi Robertsmx:

___Here is what I posted over at an Insight Central forum:

Hi All:

___We here in the states have all seen the swap over as normally occurs from summer to winter when gasoline costs less then diesel and back again to Diesel costing less then gasoline in late spring through summer. Do the Europeans have this same cycle as we do here in the states? I thought I had read that in the UK, Diesel is more expensive year round and that in the rest of Europe, Diesel is less expensive year round thus the lack of hybrid sales penetration throughout much of Europe? Have any of the UK and continental European Insight owners seen the same?

___The reply I received came from a member I know by his nick as the Citrus Smoothie out of South London, UK.

Hi Xcel

Here in the UK I don't believe we have the seasonal fluctuation between diesel and gasoline that you experience. I believe that is for two main reasons - 1) around 75% of fuel cost in the UK is tax, so small market fluctuations do not affect the final forecourt price by more than a few pennies a litre 2) Most house / central heating in the UK is supplied by permanently piped natural gas and I suspect that the USA relies more heavily on oil (diesel) fired heating during the winter months, hence your price fluctuations.

It is true that diesel is slightly more expensive in the UK all year round but I am not sure why. However even with the price difference, it is still more economical to run a modern diesel engined car. As an example I recently drove a rental car (Renault Megane dCi) to Liverpool and back at an average of 85mph (nothing quite handles like a rental car!) and still got 46mpg (imperial). The 'new generation' diesel engines are truly a step forward.

This is part of the reason behind poor hybrid sales. When you add lack of advertising by the manufacturers, consumers distrust of the unknown and ridicule by the motoring press then poor hybrid sales are hardly surprising.

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

larsb · December 2004

"Data gathered from service stations across the UK yesterday show unleaded petrol was selling for an average 80.86p at Tesco, compared with 79.81p at Sainsburys, and 79.90p at Asda, Safeway and Morrisons. The price of diesel at Tesco also appeared to be be higher, at 84.46p per litre. Sainsburys was selling diesel for 83.70p a litre yesterday, while at Asda it was 83.85p, Safeway, 83.89p and Morrisons 83.90p."

I have no idea what the accord diesel or Prius costs in the UK, so I have no way to know which car is cheaper out the door.

robertsmx · December 2004

I doubt you noticed me mentioning UK as a potential exception when it comes to cost of gasoline versus diesel. In much of the rest of the world, diesel is a lot cheaper than gasoline. And in NA, that certainly isn't true and we know it (even with seasonal fluctuations).

Hybrids have to go thru several phases to establish a marketplace for themselves. Diesel and gasoline fueled vehicles have had plenty of time to do so, and there are a lot more options available than there are hybrids. If we were to simply go by sales volume, petrol Accord outsells its diesel counterpart in UK. Does that make diesel less popular there?

Here is a bit of interesting news item from Honda UK:

"The IMA is proving to be an increasingly popular option with fleet and private drivers alike, especially those who have to drive into Londons Congestion charge area because the car can travel in and out without paying the charge. With the boundaries likely to expand over the next few years the impact will become even greater. A driver who needs to enter the congestion charge area each day will save a further £1200 a year."

This is besides a recent report from Top Calc (whole life cost provider, perhaps similar to Intellichoice here) that Honda's IMA can beat the Golf, Focus and Astra diesel equivalents - in some cases by as much as £2,500 over 3 years 60,000 miles.

Hang on for the future. Hybridization will have to be coupled to proper awareness, first.

xcel · December 2004

Hi Robertsmx:

I doubt you noticed me mentioning UK as a potential exception when it comes to cost of gasoline versus diesel. In much of the rest of the world, diesel is a lot cheaper than gasoline. And in NA, that certainly isn't true and we know it (even with seasonal fluctuations).

___Yes, I did but I have not heard back from the German, French, or Swedish citizen owning Insighters just yet.

___In either case, in the UK gasoline costs less then Diesel and the hybrid penetration there is almost non-existent. Selling a few thousand cars of a particular model is a money losing situation unless you have other reasons to believe in it. They have plenty of 40 - 50 mpg automobiles with similar amenities to choose from and for prices less then the Prius II and HCH. This is the simple math the Gagrice points out. Lower cost fuel yet the Hybrids are much higher priced vs. equivalently optioned diesels receiving similar FE thus the little to no sales. Read what Citrus Smoothie wrote as he lives there.

___If the Accord iCDTi in EX-L trim was sitting on the lot next to the std. Accord EX-L but costs just $1,000 more, the iCDTi couldnt be kept in stock. On the other hand, the AH will sell maybe 20,000 over the next year. In Europe, they have this kind of choice and they are voting with their pocketbooks for diesels. Here, we dont have the opportunity.

___Once Hybridization premiums come down by a large margin, you will see the iCDTis and TDC-is (or DI-SI-ICEs) of the world being VCMed and hybridized for even higher FE but that wont be for a long while at the premiums we see today.

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes

robertsmx · December 2004

the hybrid penetration there is almost non-existent.

And why do you think that is true (as of now)? Perhaps little to no choice! Insight, HCH and Prius are the only vehicles sold in the market, with at least one being a niche vehicle (Insight). Thats not going to be enough to take sales crown away from the rest of the vehicles. Besides, like I said earlier, human perception plays a significant role. Over time, as awareness grows and more models are available to choose from, sales WILL grow.

My reference to sales of diesel Accord was to bring home the point of availability. Hybrid technology has just begin its life. Understand that.

zodiac2004 · December 2004

human perception plays a significant role. Over time, as awareness grows and more models are available to choose from, sales WILL grow.

The same thing can be said for diesels in NA. Once the NA market is aware of the advantages a modern diesel has to offer and there are more choices available, their sales will grow significantly here as well

larsb · December 2004

I believe diesels have a lot harder road to overcome here in the USA than the Hybrids will in Europe. Here's why:

Diesels have decades of bad press and scientific studies that have correctly called diesel exhaust a major health hazard. Anyone with any common sense is going to relate that awful, sickening smell of "old style diesel" as being "diesel exhaust smell" and is going to be hard pressed to want a car that smells ANYTHING like that.

You also have the stigma of diesels being hard to start in the cold, slow to accellerate, and the fact that the major proponent company of diesels in the USA is VW, a car company that has a "not so great reputation" in this country.

Now, from what I read, the "new, clean diesels" have overcome almost all these problems. I don't know how much of that to believe YET, as so far the science behind that claim is iffy and sparse so far.

But I think you can be assured that if Honda or Toyota puts a diesel sedan on the US market, it will sell pretty well. Maybe not as well as Hybrids, but I think it will hit a small group of buyers (gagrice) who want that option.

As for Hybrids in Europe, well, it's a "new" technology, and clean, and sold by companies with better reputations over there than VW has over here. Buyers there will know a good thing when they see it, just as buyers here will.

Time will tell....:)

stevedebi · December 2004

"It is obvious that the people that are pushing the hybrid vehicles have the ear of the EPA & CARB."

I don't think Hybrids have anything to do with CARB refusing to allow diesel engines. The problem is that diesels are still emitting lots of polution that gasoline engines do not produce, and will continue to do so until low sulfur diesel and particulate filters come to the US. So the CARB doesn't allow them. The restriction on diesel engines came in almost a decade before the hybrids were introduced in California.

robertsmx · December 2004

Yep. Perception plays a role in marketing and sales. Diesel will have to go thru some trouble of being widely received (forget about being replacement for gasoline counterparts at the moment). At least in this case, diesels have history and a starting point with more choices available NOW, a luxury hybrids don't, but eventually will.

I would rather compare the two in America five years from now as we see more mature versions of hybrid technology going against the best diesel has to offer.

zodiac2004 · December 2004

I agree with most of your post, except

believe diesels have a lot harder road to overcome here in the USA than the Hybrids will in Europe.

The only disadvantage modern diesels have in NA is perception. They are equal if not better than gasoline cars in every way, and proven to be hands down better in fuel efficiency, longevity and resale.

Hybrids in Europe OTOH only have supposedly cleaner emissions as an advantage. They MAY have a slight advantage in fuel efficiency over diesels but certainly not enough to overcome the price premium for gasoline, and lose out in reliability?, longevity and resale.

larsb · December 2004

quote zodiac2004-"The only disadvantage modern diesels have in NA is perception. They are equal if not better than gasoline cars in every way, and proven to be hands down better in fuel efficiency, longevity and resale."-end quote

Well, here are the problems with those assertions:

Fuel Efficiency - VW diesels have had that advantage for years, and they have made little or no inroads yet. They may do better if clean diesel turns out to be "really" clean, and other builders besides VW (poor reliability historically) and Mercedes (priced out of many buyer's league) start offering diesel sedans.

Longevity - surely, factually, diesels are built to last longer than gasoline engines. But "realistically" speaking, VERY FEW owners buy a car and intend to keep it for more than 200,000 miles, which is about the point where diesels start outliving gasoline cars. I had a 1980 Nissan 200SX from which I got 323,000 miles, so there are exceptions to every rule.

Resale - At mileage under 100K, there is no advantage for diesels in resale. Over 100K, where ALL CARS lose a TON of resale value just because of the magic number 100K, diesels do have a SMALL advantage because of the reputation of diesel longevity. But refer to my longevity point above - so few owners care and want a car to go more than 200,000 miles (because at that point, seats break and tear, power windows stop working, clutches die, trannies die, all kinds of stuff goes wrong with high mileage cars that is UNRELATED to the engine type) that it really applies to such a small number of overall resales. And modern cars over 200K are expensive to maintain, since almost none of them have warranties at those mileage levels.

So in summary, diesels STILL do have major obstacles to overcome in the USA.

electrictroy · December 2004

Let's look at the green scores for VW TDIs:

2003 = 1 (old design)

2005 = 6 (more-efficient european injectors)

2007 = 9 (no sulfur diesel fuel; insight-style catalyst)

.

Diesels are IMPROVING... that's what some of you don't seem to understand (or refuse to admit). The diesels are undergoing the same rapid transition from dirty-to-clean that gasoline cars underwent during the 80's.

By 2010, don't be surprised to see SULEV and PZEV diesels roaming California highways.

troy

gagrice · December 2004

Take the matter of gas-electric hybrid vehicles. They are being presented in the media as the answer to rising gasoline prices and a deteriorating ozone layer.

That is a mistake -- one that could cost consumers and the environment further down the road.

Gas-electrics reduce fuel consumption and tailpipe emissions. No argument there. They also have drawbacks or trade-offs, not the least of which is a potentially negative resale value. They essentially use two power systems -- a traditional gasoline engine and a battery-powered motor.

What is the cost of replacing that battery pack? No one, at the moment, seems to have a credible answer. What is the remaining useful battery life of a used gas-electric? How much should you pay for that remaining battery life on resale? Still, there are no available credible answers, the truth of which could affect the resale value of gas-electric cars and trucks.

Environmentally, there is another question. Assuming that tens of thousands of gas-electrics are sold annually and there is an eventual accumulation of tens of thousands of dying and dead battery packs, where do all of those dead batteries go? Do they disappear as if they never existed, leaving no mark upon the environment? That's doubtful, to put it mildly.

Is there an alternative? Yes.

It comes in the forms of common-rail diesel and unit-injection diesel engines, the latter of which is the key feature of this week's test car, the 2004 Volkswagen Passat TDI wagon. The Passat TDI diesel with unit injection is not the answer to rising fuel costs and environmental concerns, either. Instead, like gas-electrics, it is one of many possible solutions, replete with its own advantages and trade-offs. Still, it should be taken seriously. An aside: Common-rail diesel injection and unit injection are two ways of doing the same thing -- efficiently injecting diesel fuel under high pressure into engine combustion chambers. The aim is to get the quickest, most complete burn of the air-fuel mixture, thus maximizing power while minimizing fuel consumption and emissions. Common-rail diesel achieves that objective by channeling fuel along a tube, or rail, and uniformly injecting it into combustion chambers. Unit-injection diesel, by comparison, uses individual injectors located at each combustion chamber. The injectors are operated electronically. They atomize fuel under very high pressure, thereby allowing it to mix more thoroughly with air in the combustion chambers. The result is a powerful, clean burn and fewer emissions. On a test drive, the result was a Passat TDI wagon that got a remarkable 37 miles per gallon with very little noise and absolutely no diesel exhaust smell.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A63611-2004May28?languag- e=printer

Hybrid vs Diesel

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