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Hybrid vs Diesel
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Comments
If the above is merely a preference: to each his own!?
I am not sure what numbers you are using but for me it is a MOST viable solution. My goal is to take the TDI between 500,000- 1,000,000 miles! My BE against a gasser Jetta is max 53,000 miles. but against the 1.8T the break even is something like under 200 dollars.
If my goal was to move to metropolitan; Boston, Wash DC, NYC, (you get the picture I am sure.) then a gas and/or diesel hybrid is the ticket; to deal with the enormous % stop and go driving and to combine it with the ocasional longer distanced trips. But the truth is that the long term durability and reliability, given the average Japanese car (in Japan) is "junked" at 30,000 miles, remains to be seen. (in other words, unless the manufactured cars in and or for Japan are appreciably different than the ones that find their way to the USA,) 30,000 miles was approximately what I put on the TDI in one year!!!
We have limited data of Prius exceeding 150,000 miles here in North America already. Every single one of them was still going strong.
It's only a matter of time before enough of that data is collected to end the misconceptions & doubt.
JOHN
It is literally impossible at this point (2004) to have a 5/10/15 year historical data collection on the 2003 Prius model? If we have to detail why, then there is a problem going on that neither I nor gas/hybrid cars like Prius can fix!
The issues it seems to me are "the bang for the buck". (A Toyota Corolla is 13k vs 27k) so no! Is the Prius technology durable and reliable enough? YES (3 years or 36,000 miles <warranty period> to 100,000 miles is almost a no brainer) Automaking specifications almost guarantee that. Are they adaptable enough to the transportation needs as gassers have established? So to get more widespread market share to overcome much higher costs, they have to do a heavy heavy market effort!
Sorry, but your arbitrary selection of the 2003 model serves only to mislead. It is configured exactly the same way the 2001 model is. Why didn't you mention that?
2007 is when hybrid volume & selection is planned to really pick up. By then the aging data will be abundant. What does jumping to conclusions now prove?
JOHN
It is not arbitrary at all. You are doing the misleading! If anyone is jumping to conclusions: YOU are the one jumping to conclusions! (if your web site is any attempt at statistical validation!!) I am glad you are excited about the product!
The 2004 is a total redesign from the 2003. But then you knew that!! If you are talking about 2007 as the age of "pick up" then 5/10/15 year data is 2012/2017/2022. This of course is future tense!!!???
From my perspective, it is anathema that we are not working on fuel cell models for sale; next 5 years. In many respects, it is about cost effectiveness, as is the Prius right now. One major hurdle is the fuel cell product has to come down anywhere from 5-20 times the current prices despite "killer application" technology!!
So if it is only the doubting of technology at issue why then doesn't Honda and Toyota just manufacture Civics and Prius's in the same yearly numbers but in hybrid? Prius's at the current numbers is a hit. The real questions are will it be the same hit when in manufacturing numbers as thegasser only Civics, Accords, Camrys, Taurus, Chryslers, etc etc (didnt mean to leave any OEM out) if not how to we release it to hit potential goals??
Where is your detail then? You claim reputation concerns, yet don't mention any specific component. (I did though.)
The PSD is the same design. The motor is the same design (though bigger now). The invertor is the same design (though higher voltage now). The battery-pack is the same design (though greater density now). The electric A/C is a carry over from the already proven electric vehicles. The electric-steering is refined even more now.
What is there to worry about?
The continued tweaks are clear evidence of the intention make this technology bullet-proof, so robust it can compete with engine-only designs head-on.
I have yet to see the "well proven" data for diesel. Where are the 5/10/15 year reports for it?
And since when is 15-year data helpful anyway. 10-year amortization is quite unrealistic by most accounting practices.
JOHN
The IRS still uses a 14 year depreciation for luxury cars, which I agree with you has never been useful!
From an accounting practice point of view, the flexibility to take ACC depre (5/6 year of 10/20/20/20/20/10) with an up to 100,000 dollar including total first year write off would be good?! I have done that with Toyota Landcruiser's under the 6k GVW rule and it is pretty cool! So by virtual of the lower cost of the Prius would be even cooler!!??
http://www.stealthtdi.com/TDI-Problems.html
Realistically, it is a big risk planning on more. Some vehicles do exceed that, but certainly not a majority of them. Accountants call extra that a "gain", not something you should actually "bet the farm" on.
So if you want your number-crunching results to be sincere, you must acknowledge the reality of 8 years or 150,000 miles (whichever comes first) in your calculations.
JOHN
___Interesting back and forth as usual
___The Honda Accord iCDTi is available in Europe. It is much more powerful then either the VW TDI or Prius II, much less polluting then the TDI (here), and is rather affordable in comparison to either the VW TDI and/or Prius II’s to date. Since the average Joe isn’t likely to be able to purchase a Prius for at least 6 months, why not think the Honda iCDTi instead of just the TDI? If Honda would just bring it over when we finally do have relatively clean and mandated < 30 ppm sulfur LSD, imagine the possibilities? That 130 HP and 250 Ft.-Lb’s of torque with close to the same fuel economy as that of the Prius II go along way to satisfy the performance and cost issues in comparison to todays hybrids.
___If emissions are on top of some lists, Toyota, Honda, Ford, and whoever would do much better to install SULEV and PZEV HW across their entire model lines for a few hundred bucks rather then to place PZEV HW in a few hybrids exclusively. Toyota, Honda, and Ford already offer the Camry, Accord, and Focus in PZEV formats so why not everything else?
___Someone mentioned something about large SUV’s being dirty and such The Sequoia and Land Cruiser are two of the worst polluting automobiles available for sale in the US. With that, I don’t know if many have looked at the current crop of 04 SUV’s available but there are quite a few SULEV rated sleepers in the group. There simply is no plausible explanation as to why 2 of Toyota’s most expensive and largest automobiles belch like a third world country diesel P/U truck with the ULEV-II through PZEV HW sitting on the shelf?
___Lastly, some keep bringing up the efficiency of the Atkinsonized Echo motor. It is 37% thermal efficient or ~ 4% better then the std. SI ICE it was derived from I believe? VW already has Diesel’s with as high as 45% thermal efficiency on the bench. An Atkinsonized SI ICE will never be able to realize those kinds of numbers with existing technology that I know of.
___Good Luck
___Wayne R. Gerdes
With legendary Honda reliability, proven longevity and efficiency of the diesel engine, adequate performance and amazing resale value, it's almost stupid to buy any other car in that category, particularly if you drive in excess of 20K miles/yr.
Of course there will always be the environment doomsday predictors who still envision clouds of smoke and soot when they think about diesel engines, but the great majority will see daylight and recognize the gas/electric hybrid for what it is - a band-aid solution to the emissions and efficiency problem.
Actually, planning to keep a vehicle forever is the most wise financial decision you can make. Granted you're always at risk of being in an accident and not making that goal, but you'd be hardpressed to spend less money buying new vehicles. I have a relative that lives by this theory. I've never seen him keep one for less than 10 years. Currently running a '96 Dodge Ram with 350,000 miles. He's replaced most of the ancilliary parts and a transmission. Bed of the truck was damaged in an accident, stuck on new one. He takes care of his vehicles and honestly you'd have a hard time believing it had more than 50k miles on it if you seen/drove it. IIRC, he paid about $14,000 for it new and has spent about $2500 in repairs. First year depreciation on a new one would exceed his 9 year repair costs by a factor of two or three.
No one has ever proven to me that expecting a vehicle to last longer than 8 years or 150,000 miles (whichever comes first) is a wise financial decision.
Realistically, it is a big risk planning on more. Some vehicles do exceed that, but certainly not a majority of them. Accountants call extra that a "gain", not something you should actually "bet the farm" on.
So if you want your number-crunching results to be sincere, you must acknowledge the reality of 8 years or 150,000 miles (whichever comes first) in your calculations.
Please go to autotrader and search for 1996 or older Passat/Jetta TDIs or Mercedes diesels for sale. You'll get an idea as to how much an 8 year old diesel engine with 150k or more is worth in the real world today.
Nowhere in any of my comments did I say it was not. Please read more carefully.
I stated BEYOND the 8 year or 150,000 miles was unrealistic.
It you make it past that, great! But it's all gravy at that point. You can't actually expect it to happen. You should have money set aside for a replacement vehicle by then.
JOHN
"Actually, planning to keep a vehicle forever is the most wise financial decision you can make. Granted you're always at risk of being in an accident and not making that goal, but you'd be hardpressed to spend less money buying new vehicles. I have a relative that lives by this theory. I've never seen him keep one for less than 10 years. Currently running a '96 Dodge Ram with 350,000 miles. He's replaced most of the ancilliary parts and a transmission. Bed of the truck was damaged in an accident, stuck on new one. He takes care of his vehicles and honestly you'd have a hard time believing it had more than 50k miles on it if you seen/drove it. IIRC, he paid about $14,000 for it new and has spent about $2500 in repairs. First year depreciation on a new one would exceed his 9 year repair costs by a factor of two or three. "
"Please go to autotrader and search for 1996 or older Passat/Jetta TDIs or Mercedes diesels for sale. You'll get an idea as to how much an 8 year old diesel engine with 150k or more is worth in the real world today. "
I would agree with the last two of the three quotes. While OEM's would love you to buy "new every two" etc, the best are one to five year old used vehicles.
"Granted you're always at risk of being in an accident and not making that goal"
The other risk adjusted thing to say is: getting a new car does not decrease or increase (in theory) you risk of accident. But if you do get into an accident you suffer in addition to the repair costs in now you have title defect.
So keeping a car for as long as practically possible is the way to go financially. That is why it is more than highly suspect with the attending loss of credibility, when folks that advocate the wonders of gasser/hybrid; ala Prius, etc. purposely leave out the cost per mile calculations or upshot duplicatible numbers, which is the only reasonable way to economically compare i.e., a Prius gasser hybrid vs a TDI Jetta. Saying one should have money set aside for a replacement vehicle at the 8 year/150,000 mile mark is further fluff with no follow through and this dismissiveness is a manifestation of elitism.
All these options (Hybrids or TDIs) are in short supply right now.
They are all priced in the same ball park. Their mileage ratings are all terrific. In my opinion, you can shop on the basis of what features mean the most to you, and not worry too much about which one has the theoretically superior technology.
For me, the features that set the Jetta apart include the fact that it (unlike the Hybrids) is available as a wagon. I believe it is the only one with side-curtain airbags standard. It has available electronic skid protection, too (helps in rain and snow).
Finally, to me, biodiesel is even more cool than an electric motor. In theory (at least) I could produce fuel for the Jetta right here on my own farm. Petrodiesel emission rates are still a bit high, which bothers me a little, but biodiesel helps here too, and the low sulphur petro-d will be coming soon. In my area B20 biodiesel can be had for $1.75/gal (compared to regular unleaded gas at over $2), so at 40+ miles per diesel gallon you're way ahead.
For me the biggest unknown was whether I was willing to do the normal everyday wrenching stuff. As I looked into it, there is really not a lot to do that is a whole lot different than gassers. In fact, there is LESS to do on the diesel!! I particularly like that to preserve warranty, do the recommended oil change cycle of 10,000 mile oil and filter change intervals. After that with Delvac One (pre 2004 PD) oil analysis shows that 15,000 mile oil change intervals are CONSERVATIVE!
http://www.unitedsoybean.org/soystats2000/page_34.htm
Bring on the Biodiesel. Let's grow our own fuel.
Nowhere in any of my comments did I say it was not. Please read more carefully.
I stated BEYOND the 8 year or 150,000 miles was unrealistic.
It you make it past that, great! But it's all gravy at that point. You can't actually expect it to happen. You should have money set aside for a replacement vehicle by then.
Ok, I've read it more carefully. After further review, instead of just taking exception with your opinion I must now conclude your comments make little sense. Trying to apply GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) to a financial decision when buying a personal use vehicle is crazy. If you want to come up with numbers to use to compare two vehicles, that can be done, but I assure you 5 year, 8 year, straight-line, and MACRS depreciation has nothing to do with real life expenses for an individual's vehicle.
I can expect a vehicle to last however long I choose when making my financial decision. How I care for that vehicle and use it will have everything to do with how long it lasts, with the rare exception a vehicle will be totalled in an accident. Either way, compensation will be made and you could always buy an equally well cared for model for the same money and keep going if you desire. Whether or not you set aside money for a new model during these years of low-cost transportation is a completely different issue and has nothing to do with the actual cost of operating a vehicle.
I am not at all convinced that if you want fuel efficiency, you need a hybrid, esp. at today's high prices.
Esp. since it is a well known fact that the REAL MPG of Hybrids is FAR BELOW their alleged EPA MPGs, especially if you live in the Snowbelt. (they are terrible in cold weather. Up to 25% less MPG)
COnsumer Reports, which is to be trustedf much more than the artificial EPA mpg numbers, did a test on both the Hybrids and the Golf-Jetta diesel.
The GOLF had a 49 EPA highway MPG with the 5-speed, But CR observed 54 MPG!
The HYbrids had all kinds of inflated EPA MPGS, up to 60 (prius) and 68-70 (insight), but every REAL test I've seen gives them 42-48 mpg.
My first car was a VW Passat Wagon (called Dasher in the US back then), and was the WORST car i ever owned reliability wise, but it was a fun car to drive around.
I have owned Civics and Accors 5-speed coupes and hatchbacks since 1991. BEST cars I ever owned.
BUT, unless I did MANY City miles every year, we are talking 10,000s of city/suburban, not highway, driving,
I would Not buy any hybrid.
Sticking with Honda, the Civic HX 5-speed is an excellent alternative to the Hybrid, $6,000 less, and almost the same REAL MPG.
Ah, not in John's case. Unfortunately an 8 year old 150K mile Prius is worth 0, according to him. And you can't buy another one for the same money because they won't exist. So he has to spend the 27K or whatever to buy a new hybrid every 8 years. Call me crazy but I have no desire to spend that kind of money on depreciation for an automobile, however good it has proven to be, which in the case of a hybrid is not even the case.
Then I wise you luck with your risk taking.
Those principles exist for a reason: to help my wise financial decisions. Completely dismissing them is crazy. A vehicle is not an investment to be taken lightly, it requires serious consideration for most people.
JOHN
Another thought: VW warranties their cars against rust-through, for TWELVE years! Sounds like they expect them to be around for a lot longer than the eight years some have suggested for a car's life.
I clearly did *NOT* say that.
I said you can't plan on it being worth more, but you can "gain" beyond that. (Remember the "gravy" reference?)
Words are being twisted. Well accepted $$$ practices are being discredited. My repeated questions & requests are not being answered. You obviously aren't taking this discussion seriously. So, why should I bother?
Long-Term support is my goal anyway. This short-term nonsense doesn't help with that at all.
JOHN
Actually the reverse is true, I and other folks have repeatedly been asking you to include financial analysis. Now you say that we advocate complete dismissal?
First big mistake: a vehicle is not normally an investment!? It is if you are directly generating sales with it, i.e. taxi cab operator, minus the expenses = AROI!
"Unfortunately an 8 year old 150K mile Prius is worth 0, according to him.
I clearly did *NOT* say that."
Well you might be more persuasive if you said my 8 year old 150,000 is really worth the "residue value of;" X ? But for some reason you assiduously avoid what X is to YOU!!?
Replace "investment" with any word you want, the intent is still the same. You are still purchasing a vehicle.
JOHN
BTW what questions did I not answer. Or was that remark not directed at me ?
This is one of my favourite topics, but I refuse to take it any MORE seriously. This is a message board after all, not my thesis paper.
Replace "investment" with any word you want, the intent is still the same. You are still purchasing a vehicle.
JOHN
Well, what I am asking is in light of what I have been asking, how has your responses been constructive?
Depreciation standards are used as just that, a standard. More useful in directly comparing finances. The typical company would like to give their equipment and vehicles a limitless life span and not depreciate them at all. GAAP sets the standard that doesn't allow them to do that. Without this standard, looking at a financial statement wouldn't tell you anything. MACRS tax depreciation is the opposite, because businesses would prefer to write-off the vehicle the first year and be done with it. Neither have much to do with the true life-span of a vehicle. If these were actually based on such figures, simply putting a year basis on depreciation wouldn't mean anything because one could drive a car 10,000 miles or 150,000 miles in one year.
If you really want to look at cost you have to look at residual schedules which are good for about five years out. Beyond that, it's a crap-shoot but you can make an estimate. It's very hard on new models, particularly ones with questionable long-term costs. IF a hybrid turns out to need say $3,000 worth of batteries at say 8 years/150k miles, the value is drastically effected. Almost like pricing airplanes and heavy trucks, one with a major PM just performed is worth substantially more than one approaching that need. Of course a 8 year old car isn't worth all that much anyway so it could come down to the possibility of a hybrid becoming a white elephant.
The thing about depreciation is first it is true and then it is false/not useable for the majority of folks!
Most folks are not eligible to use depreciation cycles! Depreciation cycles can be used usually in business type related transactions.
You helped provide proof that the "cost per mile" analysis really doesn't have that much of a practical application when it comes to actual ownership.
(Hint: Distance was a key component required to do those calculations.)
JOHN
Thanks!
You helped provide proof that the "cost per mile" analysis really doesn't have that much of a practical application when it comes to actual ownership.
(Hint: Distance was a key component required to do those calculations.)
JOHN
Was that what you were trying to prove? If so, why? Because it's inconvenient to you when you try to advocate the case of hybrids over diesels.
Since I do get between 42-51, doing not much to nothing in the way of fuel conservation,
Thanks!
You helped provide proof that the "cost per mile" analysis really doesn't have that much of a practical application when it comes to actual ownership.
(Hint: Distance was a key component required to do those calculations.)
JOHN
Was that what you were trying to prove? If so, why? Because it's inconvenient to you when you try to advocate the case of hybrids over diesels.
That was COLD weather only data!
The EPA estimates all require WARM weather driving.
And now that it is WARM, efficiency has close to 54 MPG.
That is very clearly within the estimates.
> Since tests and Prius owners indicate 40-45 mpg
Once again, I am forced to point out the WRONG data is being quoted. Please stop using CLASSIC data to make the 2004 look bad!
JOHN
Again 54 mpg would be great but one of the questions you assiduously avoid is how you drive and under what conditions. Speed etc.
My TDI is easily capable of 54 mpg but please look at my post about not wearing the fuel miser's cap. It is even capable of 60 plus mpg with a 42/49 epa rating.
"Once again, I am forced to point out the WRONG data is being quoted. Please stop using CLASSIC data to make the 2004 look bad!"
Once again let me point out that Toyota "Prius" has nothing to fear from me! I would fear the "Toyota Prius" owners" who are contemplating class action lawsuits because of this so called difference in actual mpg vs EPA rated mpg!
Haven't you noticed that the new Prius didn't exist before October of last year?
That means absolutely no summer data is available yet, only stuff from the COLD months.
You are quoting statistics from the older Prius, not the new one.
JOHN
It is impossible to summarize 15,000 miles of driving without being vague. So stop asking a question that can't be easily answered. But if you absolutely keep insisting... My driving is "mixed", a wide variety of speeds & temperatures.
JOHN
NO !!!!
The 2003 Prius has a MPG rating of 52/45.
The 2004 Prius has a MPG rating of 60/51.
Geez! No wonder the replies are so absurd and non-constructive, it appears as though some didn't even realize there was a major upgrade to Prius.
> Maybe if Toyota was a legitimate Auto maker they would upgrade all those "Classic Prius" cars to the 2004 standards.
Why?
That comment is mind-boggling, it's like saying the original Hummer should be upgraded to the new H2 Hummer. Hello, the body isn't even the same.
Needless to say, all value in these discussions has been lost.
JOHN
You are incorrect here!
As I have noted and you know, the 2003 is different from the redesigned 2004 model.
Then you are intentionally misleading people, because there is no summer data available yet.
Comparing annual or lifetime averages to cold-weather-only is clearlly inappropriate. Winter values are always lower than summer.
What is your TDI cold-weather-only MPG average?
JOHN