The Future of Hybrid Technology

yerth10 · March 2005

Earlier J.D.Power and Associates said that Hybrid sales will not exceed beyond 3 % market share.

Now they are saying that high gas prices are affecting sales of big SUV's.
www.cars.com

Does it mean that the same high gas prices will push more people towards hybrids thereby breaking the 3 % market share.

electrictroy · March 2005

"A (OPTIONALLY) plug-in full hybrid that will run on ELECTRIC ONLY for somewhere between 20 and 40 miles before the gas engine kicks in. "

.

THIS: http://www.evworld.com/view.cfm?section=article&storyid=813

troy

gagrice · March 2005

Does it mean that the same high gas prices will push more people towards hybrids thereby breaking the 3 % market share.

I would think that the hybrids would have to reach 1% of total sales first, then 2%.

larsb · March 2005

I bet he's talking about the JD Powers "3%" prediction......

electrictroy · March 2005

"2) If there is no affect on battery longevity or other electrical, software, or mechanical systems, why wouldn't the Toyota engineers have done this "+" originally?"

.

No one knows for sure how long a NiMH battery will last, because it's a relatively new technology.

By limiting the drain to 40%-80%, Toyota designed the car to avoid under-or-overcharging, and thereby extend battery life to >200,000 miles. In contrast, the Prius+Plus routinely under-and-overcharges battery #2 to 0% and 100%, and that *will* shorten its life. It might die at 100,000 miles and cost the owner ~$3000 to replace.

The Toyota engineers decided they didn't want owners to have that huge battery bill, so that's why they said "no" to the Prius+ design.

.

As for the website, remember: Corbin Motors' Website once claimed their Sparrow EVs were "well-designed" and "safe". As it turned out, neither claim was true... Sparrows routinely rolled over, and literally dozens of them were sitting in the shop due to dead batteries or faulty DC/DC modules.

Corbin eventually became the target of class-action lawsuits, government investigation, and bankruptcy.

Relevance to the Prius+ Project? The people behind the project can CLAIM anything (like the battery will last forever), but that doesn't make it true. 5 years from now, we might see Prius+ in the same position as Corbin.

NOTE:

Yes, I'm a pessimist. After losing thousands of dollars in Equinox, and Corbin, and other companies making outstanding claims, I've learned to be skeptical. Claims like "the battery longevity won't be affected" are no good when those claims are not backed-up by anything except guesses.

Toyota verified that the Prius battery will last >200,000 miles by actually *driving* the Prius 200,000 miles, monitoring the results, and sharing the data with its customers. I trust Toyota's claim.

The Prius+ folks have not done the same. They have no evidence to back-up their claims. They have an experiment, and their customers get to be the testers.

troy

Kirstie_H · March 2005

Don't forget tonight's member-to-member chat - it's open mic night, so come and discuss whatever's on your mind.

http://www.edmunds.com/townhall/chat/townhallchat.html

6-7pm PT/9-10pm ET. Drop by for live chat with other members. Hope you can join us!

kirstie_h

larsb · March 2005

"Gas prices to reach record highs soon"

http://www.fox30online.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=29BFC261-5E52-456C-8A03-446392- 141CA2

I'd say all you "on the fence" Hybrid shoppers should take the plunge, before we hit $2.50 soon !! (Oil hit $56 a barrel today too)

yerth10 · March 2005

Yes, I am talking about the 3 % market share predicted by JD Power earlier.

Today (2005-03-16), 5 things happened
* OPEC increased Oil Production by 2 % (500,000 barrels / day)
* Senate approved drilling in Alaska
* Oil prices hit a record of $ 56.6 / barrel
* Oil prices closed at record high $ 56.46 / barrel
* GM's shares tumbled below $ 30 for the 1st time in a decade.

Its time for all governments (US, EU, Japan, China, India) to frankly tell their people to move to hybrids/alternatives.

No more blaming on OPEC as they are doing their best. Its the increase in consumption coupled with decrease with production that contributed to these ugly prices.

If things go this way, even Toyota will end up in loss.

yerth10 · March 2005

For those who say No to Hybrids and yes to Gas Guzzlers, you can better go to peakoil.com

They provide more genuine info than IEA which has given wrong predictions that is causing havoc today.

railroadjames · March 2005

I tend to agree with most of what you say EXCEPT the last point about Toyota. Why would you say that? Toyota has been on the positive up swing for quite some time. They are a leader (especially in hybrids) and have done so when no one seemed to consider it necessary as long as gas prices were in the usual price range.
All I see from Toyota is leadership in this hybrid technology world.
Culliganman(Gas prices making people rethink their next car)

yerth10 · March 2005

Culliganman

Toyota will certainly get the leadership title. But in Jan-Feb 2005, the sales of most of the vehicles (cars, vans, suv's, pickups) have declined and pretty soon this trend may bring in a decline in Toyota's profits also. More Oil prices means more money actually goes out of people's pocket.

They got to be careful by introducing more hybrids like Prius to reduce the fuel consumption.

yerth10 · March 2005

At around $ 48 / barrel, the sales of all vehicles have tumbled in Jan-Feb, now with this sky high prices, I dont know what will be the picture by the end of the year.

Unless hybrid sales go high enough to reduce the oil prices, the topic may be
The future of Vehicles
instead of
The future of Hybrid Vehicles

electrictroy · March 2005

OPEC is running out of oil.

That's why they can't meet demand, and prices are skyrocketing.

Troy

railroadjames · March 2005

I disagree with that. OPEC is just not able to quench the ravenous thirst of a world gone out of control. Auto makers keep making vehicles that are mostly indifferent to today's needs.
Buyers will dictate the next era of transportation. I just don't get it though. Why are Americans so indifferent to where this is all going. I drive a Prius (04) and I'm already seeing a difference in my fuel costs. Wow!! Just imagine what those SUV owners must be feeling when they have to kill a C-note each and every time they fill up to keep their monsters thirst supplied. Now a band-aid solution by BUSH is to ruin the Alaskan Wilderness in a rush to get more oil to the gas hogs. I can't wait to see what other solutions are on deck.
Culliganman( Free Us Prius)

gagrice · March 2005

Now a band-aid solution by BUSH is to ruin the Alaskan Wilderness in a rush to get more oil to the gas hogs.

When was the last time you visited ANWR? I am less than 75 miles from there this very minute. I was here When Carter came up and went fishing after he added it to his list of non accomplishments. It is no different than the NPR that is currently being put into production. The truth is the American public are gullible when listening to the environmentalists. It is better to use our own resources and try to get our balance of trade in line than to buy foreign vehicles and fuel them with foreign oil. Overpriced hybrids are NOT the answer to the oil problem. We need more capacity to refine the oil so we don't have to be tied to countries like Venezuela that are causing most of the current unrest in the oil industry.

yerth10 · March 2005

For the time being, OPEC could not bring more, may be they will in 3 years time. But by that time, demand will also increase and the supply (from importing countries) will fall and again the price will be high.

At present, I think people are scared to buy any vehicle. A person who may like to trade his Camry-1995 for Camry-2005 may back off as the current model will be giving lesser mileage because of its increased lenght, width & height.

Not only we should move quickly to hybrids, but also to 5-door vehicles which offer more space for their dimensions like Prius, Vibe, PT-Cruiser, etc.

yerth10 · March 2005

Ford gives a Free Dell PC on purchase of some models.
Instead they can give a Free Electric Scooter.

It seats 1 person, has 30 mile range, 20 mph speed and costs only $500 and can be used for short city rides.

Not only does it cut the gasoline usage, but also helps reduce the battery cost and improve the tech.

Something like this has to be done, otherwise Oil prices will rise even further.

kernick · March 2005

you: A person who may like to trade his Camry-1995 for Camry-2005 may back off as the current model will be giving lesser mileage because of its increased lenght, width & height.

me: you have a point there, as there's a study on the DOE website that showed vehicle weight increasing by 20% over the last 20 years, and hp nearly doubling. People don't need that, they want it - and as long as people have the money that is where the manufacturers are headed. When people decide they don't want larger vehcicles the size and power will gradually decrease.

But there is a lot of inertia to changing the average vehicle on-the-road; as the vehicles being built today will be around for 10-15 years on average; and the models can't be redesigned quickly.

The other factor is that despite what you and I think of gas prices, there are a lot of people with money in this country and around the world, who really aren't affected by the price of gas. There are probably 10-20 million people in this country who are either worth over a $1M (property, collectibles, stocks) or who earn over $100K/yr. These are the people who (can afford and buy new vehicles, especially the larger and more powerful vehicles.

So you have people who really don't care financially about the cost of gas, who drive a lot of the market of what gets built.

kernick · March 2005

you: It seats 1 person, has 30 mile range, 20 mph speed and costs only $500 and can be used for short city rides.

me: If it's meant to drive on streets with 3000+lb vehicles it is a bad idea. People getting killed or maimed is a bad trade-off to save a little gas. Anything that decreases safety in the name of economy is a bad idea.

Decreasing safety is like saying my life is the tripling of the proability of being killed by an automobile (about $500/year?). As far as I know you can't spend the money in the bank when you're dead.

yerth10 · March 2005

So you have people who really don't care financially about the cost of gas,

Yes: 60-70 % of the people dont care about the cost of the gas, but the other 30-40 % do calculate and this may hit the automakers badly.

That is why the sales of big suv's went down in 1st 2 months.

Decreasing vehicle's weight: Looks sensible as the iron-ore prices are also increasing. But smaller vehicle may not be acceptable, so its better to make it a 5-door vehicle.

For ex- Malibu Maxx is 1/2 inch shorter than Malibu, but offers 6 cubic feet more space.

yerth10 · March 2005

In downtowns, vehicles never exceed 25 mph and we can see lots of small mopeds there.

In highways, no one dares to drive.
If we work out probability, the # of people killed in accidents (inside 4 wheelers) and pollution related disease may be more.

gagrice · March 2005

That is why the sales of big suv's went down in 1st 2 months.

I see this a lot and it is misleading. Auto sales are down Period. Honda is off 12% the Civic is off 34% this year so far. People that buy SUVs or hybrids have enough extra money that $3 per gallon gas is not an issue. It is those that cannot make their payments on a $12k Civic or Corolla that are hurting with higher gas prices. Anyone that can justify a $50k RX400h or a $35k HAH is not going to lose any sleep over $3 gasoline. Toyota is targeting the $100k to $200k per year buyers. Not the average middle class American.

larsb · March 2005

Median family combined income of all car buyers is $89,000. Median income of Prius buyers is $100,000.

Not a big diff, eh?

And if you browse the web, you can see multiple news stories that are talking about the decline of big SUV sales numbers, how buyers are targeting smaller SUVs and cars.

The SUV bubble is over. People are seeing the light and ditching those beasts !!!

gagrice · March 2005

The SUV bubble is over. People are seeing the light and ditching those beasts !!!

The media was saying the same thing a year ago and the sales of PU trucks and SUVs surpassed sedans by an even larger margin in 2004 than 2003. It is media hype that appeals to the urban masses. Those in the burbs are still buying SUVs and PU trucks and will continue even if gas goes over $4 a gallon. Even the Prius is starting to gather dust on the dealers lots. They will be giving rebates on them like they did in 2000 when they could not get anyone to buy.

yerth10 · March 2005

sales of PU trucks and SUVs surpassed sedans

Only if you include CUV's its more, otherwise its lower. All we are saying is the big suv's are affected by gas prices.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/03/12/Autos/gas_prices.reut/index.htm
* "SUV segment lost 1.2 percentage points of U.S. market share "
* "large pickups were down about 2 percentage points"
* "compact cars, on the other hand, gained 2.2 percentage points "

larsb · March 2005

quote gagrice-"The media was saying the same thing a year ago and the sales of PU trucks and SUVs surpassed sedans by an even larger margin in 2004 than 2003."-end quote

Yes, they were "saying it" a year ago, but NOW, in 2005, the sales trends are PROVING it.

Last year it was a PREDICTION based on oil prices spiking. This year it's a FACT because now we pretty much KNOW that oil prices are not going to come down anytime soon, and probably NEVER to $30 a barrel again.

What killed the Excursion? Why does Ford now have a hybrid SUV and the Freestyle? Because of market demand for smaller, more efficient SUVs.

Here are just SOME articles about it:

"Muzzled guzzlers: SUV sales, appeal fade as gasoline prices rise"

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05076/472585.stm

"High gas prices scare off sales of SUVs"

http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0503/15/C01-117460.htm

"Gas price rises and sales of SUVs fall"

http://www.dailybreeze.com/business/articles/1366142.html

"Interest in full-size SUVs drops"

http://www.theoaklandpress.com/stories/031505/bus_20050315011.shtml

"SUV sales slowed by rising gas prices"

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BCC4F9C40-693D-4479-9207-F991FE0F4406%7D&- - siteid=google&dist=google

quote Gagrice-"Even the Prius is starting to gather dust on the dealers lots."-end quote

No, actually, since Toyota finally can meet demand with production at long last they sold more last month than any month EVER in the USA, and almost 20,000 in the last three months.

I'll bet you right now a shipment of Omaha Steaks that Toyota do not EVER have to resort to rebates to sell Priuses !!!

Just as you cannot "wish away Hybrids" Gary, you also cannot "wish away" the unmistakable trend of larger SUVs losing lustre.

Sorry !!!

larsb · March 2005

"Toyota has sold 343,000 hybrid cars around the world so far, still a tiny portion of its overall sales but more than any other automaker in the world. Toyota started selling its first hybrid in 1997."

yerth10 · March 2005

So 4 models with V8 engines are to be closed this year : Excursion, Envoy-XUV, Bonneville, Thunderbird.

RX400h with its V6 giving V8 power may threaten more luxury V8's.

gagrice · March 2005

RX400h with its V6 giving V8 power may threaten more luxury V8's.

You may be right. I see Lexus is discounting the RX330 from $3000 to $6000 depending on the options. Probably a good time to buy one. You can buy a lot of $3 a gallon gas with $6k to $9k still in your pocket.

railroadjames · March 2005

You obviously don't remember the 70's when the mass of buyers was running around buying anything but V8 cars. As gas goes up so will the interest in economical cars (notice I didn't say just hybrids).
Your point about rebates left out the fact that gas prices were nominal @ that time. Even you gotta see the (green) forest for the trees. $3.00-$4.00 a gallon will bring out the same thing it did in the 70's. Trying to tell you the reality of it all is frustrating but I keep hope alive. Anyway you'll see.....IN TIME.
Culliganman(it's not about hybrids as much as it is about ELEMINATING GAS HOGS)(that way we all have gas to go 'round)

Sylvia · March 2005

Sorry - posts have been removed about ANWR, bears and caribou. Off-topic.

yerth10 · March 2005

In 5 years, if the batteries make enough progress to cost a hybrid version of Civic, Escape, Highlander just $2,000 more than their non-hybrid version, then even at $1.5 / gallon, it may get back the extra upfront cost.

After all Prius-II has only 28 battery modules giving the same power as the 38 modules in Prius-I.

But in 5 years, is the gas going to sell at $1.5.

yerth10 · March 2005

Today the talk is whether hybrids can recover their extra upfront cost as it falls few 100's short.

Soon, if the hybrid vehicle prices go down / gas costs settle at higher level, the automakers should start publishing the mileage at which the hybrid will cover their extra cost.

Like 150K miles, 140 K miles, etc. Then the picture will be much clearer for the people.

mirth · March 2005

because the tagline "you'll make up the extra money you spend when the car's got 100K!" isn't exactly a great one for selling cars. Even if it's the truth.

larsb · March 2005

The so-called "hybrid premium" (I really DISLIKE that term - you are paying more for a better car, so how/why is that a "premium?" ) is going to VANISH like yesterday's Ford Excursion as soon as gas hits the expected $2.50 + $2.75 range.

mirth · March 2005

...it means, assuming that a non-hybrid will average about 25MPG city/highway and a hybrid about 45MPG, that, at $2.75/gallon, it will only take a little over 60,000 miles to make up the difference. Better than the 85K miles at $2/gallon, but not exactly "vanished". I could see it being worth it if you lived somewhere like LA and regularly drove 30K miles per year, but not so much if you're retired or work from home and only put on 6-8K per year.

larsb · March 2005

quote mirth-" but not so much if you're retired or work from home and only put on 6-8K per year."-end quote

Just a hunch, but I'm thinking retired people and/or people who only drive 6K to 8K miles are not buying hybrids. If they are, then they obviously could care less about the extra $3000.

No matter HOW MANY miles you drive or don't drive, you are getting a "better car" when you buy a Hybrid compared to the non-hybrid of that car line. That's why they are equipped as well or better than the EX level cars of the line.

Obviously the more you drive, the more you save, but that applies if you are comparing a Corolla to a Jeep Liberty also.

Do we call that a "corolla premium?"

kernick · March 2005

you: No matter HOW MANY miles you drive or don't drive, you are getting a "better car" when you buy a Hybrid compared to the non-hybrid of that car line.

me: let's compare the Honda Accord V-6 to the Honda Accord Hybrid. I'll list the positives and negatives of the HAH:

positives: 1) better mpg 2) slightly more power

negatives: 1) higher MSRP, 2) less likely to be discounted or have low APR, 3) less choice in what's on the lot 4) Higher weight - which using the same braking system is likely to increase stopping distances 5) mechanics unfamiliarity with the hybrids, 6) a hybrid system adds extra parts - statistically have increased the probability of components to fail, 7) smaller trunk.

Now you may still say the positives are more important than the negatives, but it is subjective based on what you value.

larsb · March 2005

I'll post my response at the "HAH - is it worth the $$$" discussion...

yerth10 · March 2005

http://www.vcacarfueldata.org.uk/green-label/index.asp

UK introduces Color Labels to indicate vehicle's pollution.
They have 3 levels of Green and the other 3 are
Yellow : Warning
Orange : Serious
Red : Danger

Innovative idea and also nice thinking.

Hope this will move people towards Hybrids, CNG, Bio-Fuels, etc.

stevedebi · March 2005

"The so-called "hybrid premium" (I really DISLIKE that term - you are paying more for a better car, so how/why is that a "premium?" ) is going to VANISH like yesterday's Ford Excursion as soon as gas hits the expected $2.50 + $2.75 range."

Hmmm, it is already over $2.50 here in California (has been at a lot of stations for several weeks). No sign of the rich folk getting rid of their monster SUVs...

yerth10 · March 2005

By extra upfront cost, I am referring to Civic & Escape.
Prius & Insight does not have Gasoline equivalent and Accord Hybrid is an upscale vehicle.

Hope it makes sense.
Those who drive a lot will go for hybrid versions and the others will stick with Gasoline version. People do need choice.

As Hybrids get faster return, more and more people will jump and Hybrid will become a Standard version, just like today's vehicles have Auto Transmission as Standard.

kernick · March 2005

You're basing your savings on a $3,000 premium right? Well you need to consider that if I don't spend that $3,000 on the hybrid, and rather invest it, it takes a lot longer to get that money back.
If I take that $3,000 and invest it in something earning 8% apy for 4 years (15K miles per year), it is worth $4,081. You need to consider the Time Value of Money. "A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow".

And right now a $3,000 difference is low, since regular gas engine vehicles are heavily discounted and hybrids aren't discounted. I'd say the difference is more like $5,000 - $6,000. I can buy a loaded V-6 Ford Escape for $7K off sticker - about $20K, while a hybrid Escape is selling for sticker - $28K? $29K? That's a big difference.

yerth10 · March 2005

No sign of the rich folk getting rid of their monster SUVs...

They wont get rid of, at the same time, they wont buy new ones either.

GM's big SUV's are going at 8K+ discount, so if they sell, it will go for a very low price.

Best thing is to keep it and drive less.

yerth10 · March 2005

8% apy for 4 years

You got to be kidding. Which bank is giving that much. If you are referring to Oil stocks, that would make some sense.

Someone who want to buy an Expedition, instead if he buys Explorer, he can put that extra money on that 8% investment and also save on gas. After all, both are 7 seater SUV's. Why not you tell this point to everyone.

yerth10 · March 2005

Last year 140,000 Hybrid Vehicles are sold. Even with so many vehicles saving so much fuel, if the Oil Prices rise to $55 +, then think how much it should have been without these vehicles.

Hybrids also have a Unknown Hedge Value.

larsb · March 2005

quote stevedebi-"No sign of the rich folk getting rid of their monster SUVs... "-end quote

Actually, there are LOTS of signs:

What killed the Excursion? Why does Ford now have a hybrid SUV and the Freestyle? Because of market demand for smaller, more efficient SUVs.

Here are just SOME articles about it:

"Muzzled guzzlers: SUV sales, appeal fade as gasoline prices rise"

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05076/472585.stm

"High gas prices scare off sales of SUVs"

http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0503/15/C01-117460.htm

"Gas price rises and sales of SUVs fall"

http://www.dailybreeze.com/business/articles/1366142.html

"Interest in full-size SUVs drops"

http://www.theoaklandpress.com/stories/031505/bus_20050315011.shtml

"SUV sales slowed by rising gas prices"

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BCC4F9C40-693D-4479-9207-F991FE0F4406%7D&- - - siteid=google&dist=google

kernick · March 2005

There will be some decrease in large SUV's and Pickup sales that would have otherwise occurred. People who can marginally afford one will opt for something else if they really don't need it. That's no different than most of the market - most vehicles have much more power and size than we need.

That'll just free up that fuel to be bought somewhere else in the world for some other purpose. I don't really see where it makes a difference. I view this as a situation where every person and every country is in a competition, for a limited resource. If you're successful you can buy that Bentley Continental GT, Viper, or Escalade and burn what you want.
That's why our mommies told us to study and work hard. :-)

yerth10 · March 2005

That's why our mommies told us to study and work hard. :-)

I like that wording. Its true.

But the sad fact is few years ago, an extreme heat wave in France & Spain have killed nearly 10,000 people (most of them in the old age like > 70's).

Very soon a hybrid which can use (battery, capacitor, photovoltaics) to get 80 MPG will come and it may cost like $ 50 K. So today's moms should use this vehicle as reference, so that when they get old, they wont suffer that fate of French/Spanish.

stevedebi · March 2005

"No sign of the rich folk getting rid of their monster SUVs...

They wont get rid of, at the same time, they wont buy new ones either. "

Sorry, I should have said "No sign of the rich folk not buying those new monster SUVs." In the past couple of days I have seen at least a dozen new large SUVs, and numerous older ones with new registrations...

The Future of Hybrid Technology

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